Assessment 1 – group assignment country egypt EXAMINE THE CHANGES FOR 5 MAIN SECTORS IN TOURISM

Assessment 1 – Group Assignment
Country: Egypt

Course Code

ECON1318

Course Name

Economics for Tourism and Hospitality

Location

Saigon South Campus

Assignment

1 – Group Assignment

Student Name/
Student ID

Nguyen Ngoc Diep – s3836416
Truong Buu Doanh – s3818121
Christina Leong Ru Suen – s3878345
Huynh Duong Phi – s3817778
Nguyen Lan Phuong – s3726725

Group

SG-G01-Team 09

Lecturer

Mr. Lee Woocheol

Word Count

2,750 words

“I declare that in submitting all work for this assessment I have read, understood and agreed to the content and
expectations of the Assessment Declaration”.

Table of Contents


A.

EXAMINE THE CHANGES FOR 5 MAIN SECTORS IN TOURISM ............................ 3

I.
1.
2.
3.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

ATTRACTIONS................................................................................................... 3
NATURAL ATTRACTIONS........................................................................................................... 3

PRIMARY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES............................................................................................. 3
PURPOSE BUILT ATTRACTIONS................................................................................................... 4
ACCOMMODATIONS............................................................................................ 4
TRANSPORTATION............................................................................................. 5
TRAVEL ORGANIZER/INTERMEDIATE....................................................................... 5
DESTINATION ORGANIZATION SECTOR..................................................................... 5

B.

DEMAND DETERMINANTS ............................................................................. 6

DETERMINANT 1: PEOPLE INCOME..............................................................................6
ATTRACTION............................................................................................................................... 7
ACCOMMODATION........................................................................................................................ 7
DETERMINANT 2: PEOPLE PREFERENCES.......................................................................8
TRANSPORTATION......................................................................................................................... 8
TRAVEL ORGANIZATION................................................................................................................. 9
DESTINATION ORGANIZATION.......................................................................................................... 9
C.

SUPPLY DETERMINANTS ............................................................................... 9

ATTRACTION............................................................................................................................. 10
ACCOMMODATIONS..................................................................................................................... 10
TRANSPORTATION....................................................................................................................... 10
D.

DIAGRAM ................................................................................................... 11

I. ATTRACTIONS.................................................................................................11

1. NATURAL ATTRACTIONS......................................................................................................... 11
2. PRIMARY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES...........................................................................................12
3. PURPOSE BUILT ATTRACTIONS................................................................................................. 13
II. ACCOMMODATION........................................................................................... 14
III. TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................................15
IV. TRAVEL ORGANIZER........................................................................................16
V. DESTINATION ORGANIZER..................................................................................17
E. CALCULATIONS............................................................................................... 18
A. USING INFORMATION FOR NATIONAL CARRIER FLAG, CALCULATE PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND OF AIR
TRAVEL IN EGYPT....................................................................................................................... 18
B. INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND OF OUTBOUND TRAVEL IN EGYPT................................................19
REFERENCES .................................................................................................... 20

A. Examine the changes for 5 main sectors in tourism

2


I.

Attractions

1. Natural attractions
Sahara el Beyda
According to Salama, the White Desert attracts about 70,000 foreign tourists each year, and
more than 200,000 locals (Haitham 2017). However, due to the impact of the covid pandemic,
the number of visitors coming here has declined.
Al Nayzak Beach
In comparison to 2019, international tourist arrivals (overnight tourists) fell by 72 percent in
January-October 2020 (UNWTO 2020). Accordingly, the number of tourists visiting the beach

has also heavily decreased.

2. Primary man-made structures
Pyramids of Gina
Pyramids of Gina is a first place stimulating the tourism industry after 2020. A 17 million euro
makeover is underway to make the country's most popular cultural monument more accessible
to tourists (Laura & Rosie 2021). The renovation is focused on the Giza Plateau (ibid.). A new
tourist center, an environmentally friendly electric bus, and the first restaurant on site are all part
of the ambitious project (ibid.).

Abu Simbel
Director of Abu Simbel Antiquities, Hossam Aboud stated the number of visitors to Abu Simbel
increased by 160 percent since the beginning of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016
(Basma 2017). In 2018, 2,500 tourists from all around the world visited the temple in southern
Aswan(SIS 2018) .This positive status was up until 2020, Covid pandemic occurred.

3


3. Purpose built attractions
Luxor museum
During the covid-19 outbreak period, tourist activities continued as normal in Luxor in 2020,
thousands of visitors flocked to its various archaeological sites such as Luxor and Karnak
Temples, the Valley of the Kings and Queens on the West Bank of Luxor as well as its museums
(Egypt Today 2020). This circumstance is different from other tourism places at the same time.

The National Museum of Egyptian Civilization
After suffering the 2020 tourist arrivals decline, thousands of Egyptian and foreign visitors
visited the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization in Fustat on April 9, 10 in 2021, to see the
Central Exhibition Hall, which was unveiled during the welcome of the Pharaohs' Golden Parade

on April 3 (Egypt Today 2021). According to Ahmed Ghoneim, CEO of the Museum Authority, the
number of museum entry tickets sold on April 9 and 10 totaled 10,000 tickets, with a total of
25,000 visitors (ibid.).

II.

Accommodations

It reports that there were 138,997.000 hotel rooms in Egypt in 2018 (Ceicdata 2018). Egypt's
overall number of overnight stays reached 42.97 million in 2020 (Saifaddin 2021). This was a
significant decrease from the previous year, when there were 136.28 million overnight stays
(ibid.). This decrease can be ascribed to a decrease in visitor numbers as a result of travel
restrictions imposed to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic (ibid.). With about 21.9
million nights spent, European tourists had the biggest number of overnight stays (ibid.).

III.

Transportation

In 2020, 336 thousand visitors came to Egypt via land, up from 1.5 million in 2019. The number
of tourists arriving by land peaked in 2019, and hit its lowest in 2020 (Saifaddin 2021). The
4


second transport market is airplanes, with around 3.3 million tourists arrived in Egypt by
airplane(Saifaddin 2021).

IV.

Travel organizer/intermediate

To have a gradual recovery from covid epidemic, Tourism and Antiquities Minister Khaled alEnani told AFP they would prioritize workers in the tourism industry, which is essential to the
Egyptian economy (Rédaction 2021). In addition, travel organizers in Egypt tourism opens more
opportunities for tourists to encourage them to travel as well as regaining their main contribution
to the economy. For example, Central Holidays is an international travel brand offering three
special specials on three of its most popular Egypt packages, with savings of up to $150 per
person for travel through the end of 2021 (MOONACHIE 2021).

V.

Destination organization sector

The contribution of Egypt's travel and tourism sector to the country's GDP plummeted from $32
billion (8.8%) in 2019 to $14.4 billion (3.8%) in 2020, just 12 months later. According to the
chairman of Egypt's Tourism Promotion Authority (TPA), the Egyptian tourism sector has
recovered by 40% in 2021 as a result of COVID-19 prevention, and is expected to recover
further than other countries when removing lockdowns and travel bans (Mahmoud 2021). The
TPA sponsors international art and cultural events in Egypt as one of its tourism marketing
tactics during the COVID-19 crisis, in addition to initiating marketing efforts around the world
(Mahmoud 2021).

B. Demand determinants

5


The factors that lead to fluctuations in the demand for a specific product or service can be
defined as the determinants of demand and some of the determinants of demand are
population, income, change in preferences and price expectations (Prateek 2021). These
changes will affect the demand curve which results in the change of price and quantity

demanded (Prateek 2021).

Determinant 1: People Income

Figure 1. Average Household Income 2005 - 2018

Despite developing a healthy economic growth in 2020, there are still an adequate amount of
people living in poverty in Egypt (AFP 2020). During the range of 2005 to 2018 which is before
the pandemic COVID-19, the average household income of Egypt citizens increase rapidly by
around 15 million EGP compared to the previous years (CEIC n.d., figure 1). According to data
from the World Bank around April to June 2020 after the pandemic has started, roughly 2.7
million jobs were lost mainly in the tourism and transport sectors and therefore results in an
increase of 9.6% in unemployment (AFP 2020).

Attraction
Since the government of Egypt has been trying to maintain healthy economic growth, the total
revenue of tourism in 2018 had reached 174.1 billion EGP and the tourism sector is considered
6


one of the largest employers in Egypt (OECD 2020). Specifically, in 2018 before COVID-19, it
was recorded around 9.8 million international tourists arrived in Egypt (OECD 2020). However,
the number of tourists started to decrease after the pandemic started due to the high rate of
unemployment and the decrease in income caused by the ineffective preventive measures to
cope with the pandemic (Mourad 2020).

Accommodation
Within the tourism industry, Airbnb is known as one of the most popular forms of
accommodations besides hotels and it is also becoming the substitution threat due to its
popularity among tourists and the convenience that it brings (Dori 2020). Despite having modern

technology and offering convenience to tourists, prices of Airbnb in Egypt ranks from $24 to $80
per night which is a more affordable price considering the household income of Egypt citizens
(figure 2).

Figure 2. Airbnb prices in Dahab, Egypt

Determinant 2: People preferences
Although there was an upward trend in inbound tourism since 2017, a few people, especially Eroupean
travellers still do not prefer travelling to Egypt as the country’s tourism industry had suffered
7


from two tough events in the past (Egypt Independent 2021). Moreover, Egypt is also low in seasonality
because it is a year-round destination as well as the preferences of tourists for uniqueness and
exclusive experiences when travelling, therefore results in negative tourism image for tourists from
other countries (Egypt Independent 2021, figure 3).

Figure 3. EU tourist number of nights by nation

Transportation
Developing and investing in the transportation sector is important to Egyptian citizens due to the
growing population, increase productivity in the tourism industry as well as connecting with the
international market (World Bank n.d.). After the start of COVID-19, its citizens prefer to stay at
home and practice social distancing instead of going out or traveling. As a result, the demand
for transportation began to have a downward trend.

Travel Organization
The MoT is one of the main stakeholders that are responsible for organizing and advertising
new forms of transportation within Egypt (World Bank n.d.). Moreover, the MoT along with the
Cairo Transport Authority operated and provide fundings to successful BRT systems for both

8


citizens and international tourists (World Bank n.d.). It is estimated that after the pandemic in
around 2025, high-speed rail will be developed in order to meet the demand of international
tourists as well as the daily usage of local citizens.

Destination Organization
In order to promote and encourage inbound and domestic tourism, the Ministry of Tourism in
Egypt showcases Egypt’s contemporary dimensions through new campaigns as well as
managing the development of new structures such as new transportation as mentioned above
(OECD 2020). However, due to the propensity of citizens during COVID-19, Egyptians still have
less interest in inbound tourism and they also prefer outbound tourism more to experience more
diversification of tourism products and services.

C. Supply determinants
Egypt Economic Report from 2020 to 2021 and also predicts the future of economic
development in Egypt in 2022-23. Fortunately, Egypt is one of the Arab countries predicted to
grow despite for the appearance of Covid pandemic. According to Oxford Business Group, the
economic growth was estimated at 4.5% to 3.5%, before dropping this figure to 2% in May
2020. However, this is still a respectable number. during this pandemic and keep Egypt from
recession due to the positive number of GDP. In fact, the tourism industry in Egypt is hardest hit
due to low tourism revenue, the country's current income is in deficit due to the absence of
visitors. The government has taken solutions to lockdown, however, they have invested and
developed other industries such as oil, local industry, local manufacturing in the hope of
replacing imported goods in the future (Yousef S and Malaika T, 2021). Because this disruption
has caused supply to decrease, the government is also supporting domestic businesses with
industries to hope to turn the situation into a proactive one in the future.

Attraction

The potential for tourism development in Egypt is high, so the government is paying great
attention to the development of ecotourism. According to Frommer's, a travel agency in Egypt,
Egypt is in fact implementing a plan to develop green tourism in this country. They are
9


establishing a total of 21 protected areas near the Red Sea, they are raising capital from many
domestic and foreign donors, including the participation of the EU. Among them are the Ras
Mohamed National Park next to the Gulf of Suez, which is home to a very popular snorkeling
and reef site, or the St Catherine reserve in South Sinai, which preserves cultural heritage and
wildlife (Oxford Business Group, 2021)

Accommodations
According to Daily News, hotel supply in Egypt will fluctuate over 83 thousand rooms and will
reach over 90,000 rooms in 2021-2022. Before Covid, famous cities in Egypt always accounted
for a high percentage of hotel supply (Cairo, Alexandria and Hurghada). This rate fell by an
average of 27% in Cairo and Hurghada. For Alexandria, it is only 1% down because it is a new
destination on the Mediterranean coast, attracting a lot of domestic tourists. It can be said that
Alexandria has saved the hotel supply in Egypt. Besides, Egyp has also improved modern
hotels instead of old traditional hotels, as well as allowing individuals to own rooms or properties
for tourists (Oxford Business Group, 2021).

Transportation
As mentioned above, Egypt suffers from the loss of imported goods. According to the American
Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, more than 90% of the country's international trade is
transported through Egypt's ports, and domestic goods also depend on shipping through the
ports. Due to the outbreak, the government requires all transportation to be carried out at night
(to avoid congestion causing outbreaks) resulting in less efficient productivity than before the
epidemic. Some exceptions such as food and necessities will still be passed as usual.

D. Diagram
I.

Attractions

1. Natural attractions

10


Natural attractions (Sahara el Bayda and Al Nayak Beach)
From a theoretical perspective, the low demand and upward supply will create a significant
change in equilibrium. Specifically, the COVID-19 affects the tourism industry, resulting in the
loss of more than 70 percent of the number of foreign tourists arrivals due to travel ban (Nadal,
2021). In addition, COVID-19 is also considered an excellent moment for recovering natural
resources including wildlife and the environment (Dr. Anna, 2021). It results in a 20% discount
on entrance fees of historical museums and sites to attract more tourists (Oxford Business
Group, 2020).

2. Primary man-made structures

11


Man-made Location ( Pyramids of Giza and Mosque of Ibn Tulun)

The demand of visitors to visit these attractions will decline due to the lesser number of tourist
arrivals to both Pyramids of Giza and Mosque of Ibn Tulun during the epidemic period. In theory,
the decrease of demand and supply leads to the reduction of price and quantity demanded.
However, in reality, the ticket entrance price at Pyramid of Giza increases steadily from

approximately 5 dollars (2018) to 9 (2021) dollars (Norman, 2018) (Egypt Tailor Made, 2021).

12


3. Purpose built attractions

Purpose built attractions (Abu Simbel and The National Museum of Egyptian Civilization)

Regarding two purpose built attractions, The National Museum of Egyptian Civilization and Abu
Simbel, both of these attractions undoubtedly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore,
both demand and supply decrease significantly because of the drop of foreign tourists leading to
the reduction in price. However, in reality, the entrance fee of Abu Simbel does not decrease,
and it increases from 9 dollars (2018) to approximately 17 dollars (2021) (The World Travel Guy,
2019) (Julie, 2021).

13


II.

Accommodation

Accommodation

Both demand and supply of accommodation also suffer a huge decrease since the lesser of
foreign tourists as well as the cost of production. In addition, numerous hotels have to lay off
and owe their employees’ salaries. Thereby, they provide many attractive offers through Egypt
private tour packages during Coronavirus with cheaper price (Cleopatra Egypt Tour, n.d).

14


III.

Transportation

Aviation industry

Due to the spread of Covid-19, customers' demand decreases since they want to put their
safety as the top priority by applying social distancing, so the number of guests decreases.
Moreover, the price of fuel decreases, leading to an increase of supply, but the price is still
decreasing (Ahram Online, 2021). In reality, to attract more customers, the government provides
numerous policies by discounting the price for guests who use Egypt Air and Airco (Oxford
Business Group, 2020).

15


IV.

Travel organizer

Travel organizer

The Covid pandemic influences seriously to the tourism industry by limiting the number of
tourists, and numerous travel organizers provide various engaging offers through Egypt private
tour packages during Coronavirus with cheaper price to compete with the other competitors
(Cleopatra Egypt Tours, n.d). Therefore, the demand of customers declined during Covid-19, but
there is an increase in supply. It results in lower price and lower equilibrium.

16


V.

Destination organizer

Destination organizer

In 2018 and 2019, the Egyptian Tourism Authority promoted inbound and domestic tourism
through managing the development and diversification of the tourism product (OECD, 2020).
Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the demand of customers to consume
products. It illustrates that there is a decrease in demand and an increase in supply, and the
equilibrium point and price has changed.

17


E. Calculations
A. Using information for National Carrier Flag, calculate Price Elasticity of Demand
of Air Travel in Egypt
2018

2019

Consumer expenditure of air travel (EGP million) *

8.984

10.797

Number of passengers*

1.003.507

1.029.064

* Note:
- Data for ‘Consumer expenditure of air travel’ is adapted from Euromonitor (2021)
- Number of passengers are taken from Egypt Air’s annual report (2018; 2019)
p = 1029064 - 1003507(1029064 + 1003507) /210797000000 - 8984000000(10797000000 +
8984000000) /2 = 2.5%18.3% = 0.14%
Even though the consumer expenditure on Air travel increases by 18.3%, the demand for air
travel still grows by 2.5%. Since the absolute value of ɛp is smaller than 1, the demand for air
services is inelastic over this price range.
=> The change in price may not have a large effect on customers since they are inelastic.

However, continuously improving customer services can keep them using Egyptair (ref). The
company can separate different pricing strategies for targeting different groups of customers.
Indeed, Egypt air has applied a mix of pricing methods (Egyptair 2019).

According to the 2019 World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report
(TTCR), Egypt ranks 22nd out of 140 economies in terms of cultural resources. Moreover, some
of the world's most iconic landmarks, such as the Giza Pyramids Complex, are found in Egypt,
which ranks 38th in terms of World Heritage cultural monuments. Besides, Egypt is a high
performer in the Middle East in terms of natural resources and environmental sustainability
(Palme & Palme, 2019). All of this leads to a rise in the number of passengers to Egypt whose
consumption is more.

18


B. Income Elasticity of Demand of outbound travel in Egypt
2018

2019

Outbound Departures* (millions of trip)

4,108.9

3,977.2

GDP per capita (USD)*

3,831.2

3,964.987

* Note:
- Outbound departures data is adapted from Euromonitor (2021)
- GDP per capita (constant USD) is adapted from World Bank (2021)
I = 3977.2 - 4108.9(3977.2 + 4108.9) /23964.987 - 3831.2(3964.987 + 3831.2) /2 = -0.94%
By the calculation from the equation, Egypt's income increases by 133%, while the demand for
outbound departures decreases dramatically between 2018 and 2019. Therefore, the elasticity’s
value will be negative, equal to -0.94%.
=> Although the income increases, customers buy less of these goods and services; they are
Inferior Good.

According to Soliman, Egypt, unlike the Gulf Arab nations, Libya, or Algeria, is not an oil-rich
country; instead, it has maintained a mixed economic model and a thriving informal sector. On
the condition of economic reform in 2019, the IMF will assist the government in restoring
national finances. By removing currency controls, eventually taking off food and energy
subsidies, boosting government revenues, and eliminating state hiring, which is already at a
minimum (Soliman, 2020). Therefore, Egypt’s income witnessed a significant increase;
moreover, 10 percent of GDP in 2017, 2018, 2019 came from remittances.
However, the outbound tourism reduction significantly explained that the tourism shock of recent
years was replicated in our Egypt economy-wide model by adjusting the world prices of several
tourism products on both the export and import sides.Thereby, the Egyptian is no need to travel
for buying and selling the foreign commodities with higher prices; simultaneously there is a
significant development of inbound tourism (El-Shennawy & Khalid Siddig, 2019).

19


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