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NAM
Phúc
MSHV : 1970092
: 12/02/1996
: Trà Vinh
Chuyên ngành
: 8580302
T
N M T TR I B NG CÁC MƠ HÌNH TRÍ TU NHÂN
T
T H P.
- Phân tích
-
: 21/09/2020
: 20/12/2021
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SPSS
Chi
fold. Sáu mơ hình
i
và ANN cho
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Vietnam is a country that is assessed to have a lot of potential in creating solar energy
sources, the number of solar power projects is increasingly spreading across the country.
However, making investment decisions based on project efficiency as well as construction
management of solar energy projects and project infrastructure is still new. In the context
of this development, students have conducted surveys and researched the factors affecting
the efficiency or productivity of a solar power project.
By studying previous studies, papers and surveying the experts, the study identified
16 factors that directly affect the productivity of a solar power plant construction project in
Vietnam, such as: The responsiveness of the local power grid, the intensity of light and the
intensity of solar radiation emitted, the elevation of the construction terrain,
etc. These
factors will be an important reference base for Investors evaluate the initial potential when
intending to invest in a solar power project.
Beside of finding out 16 factors affecting the productivity of solar power systems,
the study also optimizes the predictive performance of solar power systems by using
Clementine software (or also known as IBM SPSS Modeler) applies six single artificial
intelligence models including: linear regression (LR), generalized linear regression
(GENLIN), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), Classification
and regression trees (CART) and Chi
Squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID)
to conduct the analysis to exploit the data collected from the Global Solar Atlas website .
Six models were used independently to mine the collected data, by performing crossvalidation using the k-fold model. Six single models with 10 data files are evaluated through
the SI performance factor from which students continue to create four combinated models
that combine the best performing single models to optimize results predicting the yield of a
solar power construction project.
The results show that for the single model group, the two models with the best predictive
results are SVM and ANN, and the two models with the worst results are GENLIN and
CHAID. The combined model MH2 is combined from the SVM and ANN models, giving
the optimal results that are superior to the previous single models.
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-
.......................................................................................................................i
............................................................................................................................ii
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iii
...............................................................................................................iv
DANH M
..................................................................................................ix
................................................................................................ xi
.......................................................................................... xiii
.............................................................................................. 1
..............................................................................................1
..........................................................................................................2
.......................................................................2
........................................................................................3
....................................................................................3
1.5.1.
........................................................................................... 3
1.5.2.
........................................................................................... 4
.................... 5
.......................................5
2.1.1.
.5
2.1.2.
....................... 5
...........................................................................8
2.2.1.
................................................................................ 8
2.2.2.
........ 9
NAM ..............................................................................................................................10
..............................................................................11
.............................................................................12
....................................................15
HVTH:rLêr
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-
.................15
2.7.1.
......................................................................................... 15
2.7.2.
.................................................................... 16
2.7.3.
.................................................................................. 17
2.7.4.
................................................................................... 18
2.7.5.
- SVM) ................................... 20
2.7.6.
...................................................... 22
2.7.7.
- GenLin) .......... 22
2.7.8.
CART) .... 23
2.7.9.
squared (CHAID) .................................. 25
2.7.10. Mơ hình
......................................................................... 25
...................26
2.8.1.
................................................. 26
2.8.2.
......................................................................................... 27
.............................................................. 28
.................................................................................28
............................................................................................31
3.2.1.
................................................................................................................................ 31
3.2.2.
................................................................................................. 33
3.2.3.
...................................................................................... 36
........................................................37
3.3.1.
....................................................................... 37
3.3.2.
............................................................................... 38
..............................................................40
3.4.1.
kê IBM SPSS .................................................................. 40
3.4.2.
Clementine. ............................... 40
............................................................................. 42
..........................................42
........................................................................42
4.2.1.
......................................... 42
4.2.2.
............................................................. 43
4.2.3.
........................................................ 44
4.2.4.
................................................ 45
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrrvi
r
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r
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-
..................................................................46
4.3.1. Nhóm I - Các
..................................... 47
4.3.2. Nhóm II Các
.................................... 48
4.3.3. Nhóm III Các
4.3.4. Nhóm IV - C
4.3.5. Nhóm V - C
.............. 49
........... 49
..................... 50
.........................................................51
......................................55
............................... 58
..............................................................58
5.1.1.
................................................................................... 58
5.1.2.
u ..................................................................................................... 59
5.1.3.
................................................ 61
........................................................................................62
5.2.1. Phâ
fold ....................................................................... 62
5.2.2.
mơ hình. .................................................................... 64
5.2.3.
......................................................................... 67
...................................................................68
5.3.1.
.............................................................................................. 68
5.3.2.
.............................................................................................. 68
5.3.3.
.............................................................................................. 68
5.3.4.
.............................................................................................. 69
5.3.5.
................................................................................................. 69
5.3.6.
.............................................................................................. 70
5.3.7.
.............................................................................................. 70
5.3.8.
.............................................................................................. 70
5.3.9.
.............................................................................................. 71
5.3.10.
........................................................................................... 71
5.3.11.
....................................................................................... 71
5.3.12.
.............................................................................................................................................. 72
......................................................75
5.4.1.
........................................................................................ 75
5.4.2.
............................................. 76
HVTH:rLêr
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Trangrrvii
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r
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-
5.4.3.
2............................................. 77
5.4.4.
3............................................. 77
5.4.5.
4............................................. 77
5.4.6.
5............................................. 78
5.4.7.
6............................................. 78
5.4.8.
7............................................. 78
5.4.9.
8............................................. 78
5.4.10.
9........................................... 79
5.4.11.
0......................................... 79
5.4.12.
. .................................... 79
.........80
................................................................................................ 84
.............................................................................................................84
...........................................85
.................................................................. 86
................................................................................................. 87
........................................................................................................................... 91
........91
..............................98
-
..............................................................103
.......113
.................................................................122
..................................... 172
............................................................................................. 173
HVTH:rLêr
r
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r
r
r
r
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H nh 1.1. Công su t l
H nh 2.1. Bi
s phát tri
H nh 2.2. B
công su
H nh 2.3.
-
ng m t tr i khu v c ASEAN t 2010 - 2019[2] .......2
ng khu v
n 2005
2040[2] ...6
n m t tr i t i m t s t nh thành.[4]...................................7
ng d ng c
ng tái t o ........................................................10
H nh 2.4. Mơ hình hóa quy trình c a trí tu nhân t o ........................................................15
H nh 2.5. Mơ hình phân lo i các thu t tốn Machine learning..........................................17
H nh 2.6. Mơ hình thu t tốn ANN ...................................................................................19
H nh 2.7. Mơ hình thu t tốn SVM ...................................................................................21
H
m ch ng chéo ...........................................................27
H nh 3.1.
kh i quy trình nghiên c
n 1. ....................................................29
H nh 3.2.
kh i quy trình nghiên c
n 2. ....................................................30
H nh 4.1. Bi
th hi
u chuyên ngành c
ng tham gia kh o sát. ........43
H nh 4.2. Bi
th hi
us
H nh 4.3. Bi
th hi
u v trí làm vi c c
ng tham gia kh o sát. .........45
H nh 4.4.. Bi
th hi
u th i gian làm vi
ng tái t o c a
ng tham gia kh o sát. ........................44
ng tham gia kh o sát. ..............................................................................................46
H nh 5.1.
mơ hình nghiên c u. ..............................................................................58
H nh 5.2.
phân chia d li u thành 10
fold ............................................................62
H nh 5.3. Nh p t p d li u s 1 vào mơ hình Clementine khai báo các thơng s ............63
H nh 5.4. Gán d li u hu n luy n vào mơ hình Clementine ............................................64
H nh 5.5. Ví d khai báo cho mơ hình SVM ....................................................................67
H nh 5.6. Mơ hình hu n luy
......................................................67
H nh 5.7. Bi
th hi n ch s
quan tr ng c a bi n mơ hình SVM .72
H nh 5.8. Bi
th hi n ch s
quan tr ng c a bi n mơ hình ANN .73
H nh 5.9. Bi
th hi n ch s
quan tr ng c a bi n mô hình GENLIN
............................................................................................................................................73
H nh 5.10. Bi u
th hi n ch s
quan tr ng c a bi n mơ hình LR ...74
H nh 5.11. Bi
th hi n ch s
quan tr ng c a bi n mơ hình CART
............................................................................................................................................75
H nh 5.12. Bi
th hi n ch s
quan tr ng c a bi n mô hình CHAID
............................................................................................................................................75
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrrix
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
H nh 5.13. Mơ hình hu n luy n k t h p trong Clementine ...............................................76
H nh 5.14. Bi
th hi n h s hi u su t t ng h p SI c a các mơ hình .......................81
H nh 5.15. Bi
th hi n h s TQTT R c a các mơ hình ............................................82
H nh 5.16. Bi
th hi n MAPE c a các mơ hình ........................................................82
H nh 5.17. Bi
th hi n MAE c a các mơ hình ..........................................................83
H nh 5.18. Bi
th hi n RMSE c a các mơ hình ........................................................83
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrrx
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
B ng 2.1. Th ng kê s gi n
B ng 2.2. M
-
i m t s vùng trên c
c. .........................5
ng tái t o t m nhìn 2030 ........................................................8
B ng 2.3. B ng các nhân t
xu t
t h th
ng
m t tr i ...............................................................................................................................13
B ng 3.1. B ng các nhân t
t h th
ng m t tr i
............................................................................................................................................31
B ng 3.2. M
ng c a các nhân t ...................................................................33
B ng 3.3. M
ng c a các nhân t ...................................................................34
B ng 3.4. Giá tr tiêu chu n c a h s t
ng v
B ng 4.1. Th ng kê chuyên ngành làm vi c c
B ng 4.2. Th ng kê s
i tham gia kh o sát........................42
m làm vi c c
B ng 4.3. Th ng kê v trí làm vi c c
c m u ........................39
i tham gia kh o sát .............43
i tham gia kh o sát ......................................44
B ng 4.4. Th ng kê th i gian làm vi c
ng tái t o c a c
i
tham gia kh o sát ...............................................................................................................45
B ng 4.5. K t qu ki
i v i t ng nhóm nhân t ...................46
B ng 4.6. H s
n quy ho ch và xây d ng47
B ng 4.7. H s
n th i ti t và v
B ng 4.8. H s
n k thu t c a h th
a lý .48
n
m t tr i ...............................................................................................................................49
B ng 4.9. H s
n ch
ng c a h th ng
n m t tr i .......................................................................................................................50
B ng 4.10. H s
n v n hành h th
n
m t tr i ...............................................................................................................................51
B ng 4.11. K t qu ki
............................................................52
B ng 4.12. K t qu phân tích nhân t ...............................................................................52
B ng 4.13. B ng x p h ng m
ng c a các nhân t
t c a h th ng
ng m t tr i. ...................................................................................................55
B ng 5.1. B ng x p h ng các nhân t
ng nhi u nh
t h th
n
ng m t tr i ............................................................................................................59
B ng 5.2. Các nhân t
c ch n ph c v thu th p d li
n 2 ...........................60
B ng 5.3. B ng các thơng s khai báo mơ hình .................................................................64
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrrxi
r
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r
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GVHD: TS.
-
B ng 5.4. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ....................................68
B ng 5.5. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ....................................68
B ng 5.6. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ....................................68
B ng 5.7. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ....................................69
B ng 5.8. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ....................................69
B ng 5.9. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ....................................70
B ng 5.10. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ..................................70
B ng 5.11. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ..................................70
B ng 5.12. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ..................................71
B ng 5.13. K t qu các thông s
cho fold 1 ..................................71
B ng 5.14. K t qu t ng h p các ch s
iv
............................71
B ng 5.15. Mơ hình k t h p ..............................................................................................75
B ng 5.16. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 1 ............................76
B ng 5.17. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 2 ............................77
B ng 5.18. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 3 ............................77
B ng 5.19. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 4 ............................77
B ng 5.20. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 5 ............................78
B ng 5.21. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 6 ............................78
B ng 5.22. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 7 ............................78
B ng 5.23. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 8 ............................78
B ng 5.24. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 9 ............................79
B ng 5.25. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 10 ..........................79
B ng 5.26. K t qu các thông s
t h p cho fold 1 ............................79
B ng 5.27. B ng so sánh các ch s
HVTH:rLêr
r
t h p .............................80
Trangrrxii
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
GENLIN:
SVM
CHAID:
- Squared (Chi
Squared Automatic
Interaction Detection)
Factor Analysic)
trung bình
TOE: T
Tonne Oil Equivalent)
(Natural Language Processing)
HQTT: h i quy tuy n tính
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrrxiii
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
h
NLTT
Theo [1]
Data
NLTT
Ngành
trong
.
xem xét
NLTT
khá
dân
.
trong
NLMT.
NLTT nhanh
HVTH:rLêr
r
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r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
H nh 1.1.
- 2019[2]
gành cơng
nhiên
,v
NLTT
MT là
XD, CSVC và KT
n
có
,
NLTT
HVTH:rLêr
r
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r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
NLMT
+
+ Mơ hình
+ Mơ
HVTH:rLêr
r
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r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
NLTT
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrr4
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
26
B ng 2.1.
Tây Nguyên
1600 1750
3.3 4.1
Trung bình
1750 1800
4.1 4.9
Trung bình
1700 2000
4.6 5.2
2000 2600
4.9 5.7
2000 2600
4.9 5.7
2000 - 2500
4.3 4.9
.
102
HVTH:rLêr
5.245
r
Trangrr5
r
r
r
r
m 2020. Song song
GVHD: TS.
-
có
H nh 2.1.
2040[2]
Theo[3]
20% (2050).
(2020)
HVTH:rLêr
r
(2030)
(2050).
Trangrr6
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
H nh 2.2.
hành.[4]
Theo [5]
(2020)
1,6% (2025)
HVTH:rLêr
(2025)
(2030).
ng 3,3% (2030).
r
Trangrr7
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
B ng 2.2.
Gió
Biomass
2020
2025
2030
800
2.000
6.000
0.80%
1.00%
2.10%
21.600
24.600
27.800
29.50%
20.50%
15.50%
-
-
-
1.00%
1.20%
2.10%
850
4.000
12.000
0.5%
1.6%
3.3%
dùng
nâng cao
[6]
Trong ngành
n
trong
QL
NLMT
h
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrr8
r
r
r
r
GVHD: TS.
-
an.
[7]
-
mơ
Fuzzy FMEA và Fuzzy AHP [8]
[9]
-
QL
[10], [11]
-
.[12]
-
[13]
tịa nhà. [14]
[15]
NLTT
[16]
-
Nâng cao
[17]
.[18]
-
HVTH:rLêr
r
Trangrr9