FINANCIAL INVESTMENT REPORT 1

THE UNIVERSITY OF DANANG
UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS
⁕⁕⁕⁕⁕⁕⁕⁕⁕⁕

FINANCIAL INVESTMENT REPORT
Instructor: Associate Prof Vo Thi Thuy Anh
Group: 1
Class: 44K15.1
Student: 1. Le Ngoc Tu Uyen
2. Le Phuong Hong
3. Truong Thi Minh Hieu
4. Nguyen Thi Minh Tam

Danang, May 4, 2021


TABLE OF CONTENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................................................................................- 2 LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................. - 4 LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................................................- 4 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. - 6 I.

Macro analysis.............................................................................................................- 7 1. World economy........................................................................................................- 7 2. Vietnam Economy....................................................................................................- 9 3. Based on the analysis above, select and analyze the sectors in which the group will
invest............................................................................................................................. - 12 3.1.

Real Estate Industry.........................................................................................- 14 -

3.2.

Banking Industry.............................................................................................- 16 -

4. Demand and supply stocks.....................................................................................- 16 5. Stock market Vietnam............................................................................................- 18 II.

INVEST IN A TWO-RISKY-ASSET PORTFOLIO AND RISKFREE ASSET.....- 19 -

1. Introducing two stocks listed on Vietnam Security Market....................................- 19 1.1.

Introducing API...............................................................................................- 19 -

1.2.

Introducing MBB.............................................................................................- 22 -

2. Use technical methods to forecast the price of 2 stocks..........................................- 25 2.1.

Stocks API.......................................................................................................- 25 -

2.2.

Stocks MBB.....................................................................................................- 26 -

3. The expected rate of return of the two stocks and Vn-index:..................................- 28 4. The covariance and correlation of the two stocks...................................................- 29 5. The minium variance frontier and the efficient frontier..........................................- 30 6. Optimal portfolio....................................................................................................- 31 III.

BUILDING THE ABOVE PORTFOLIO FOR CLIENTS.....................................- 32 -

1. Our portfolio is better than the market portfolio.....................................................- 32 2. When were clients lender/borrower........................................................................- 32 Financial Investment

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3. The maximum fee in percentage.............................................................................- 33 CONCLUSION................................................................................................................- 35 REFERENCES................................................................................................................. - 36 -

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LIST OF TABLES

Table I.1: World growth in the period 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021............................- 6 Table I.2: Inflation in the period of 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021................................- 7 Table I.3: The world unemployment situation in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021…….. - 8 Table I.4: Growth of GDP in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021…………….. - 9 Table I.5. Growth of GDP in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021…………….. - 9 Table I.6. Inflation rate in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021…………….….. - 9 Table I.7. Unemployment rate in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021…..……. - 9 Table II.1: Financial ratios of API.....................................................................................- 11 Table II.2: Financial ratios of MBB..................................................................................- 18 Table II.3: The expected rate of return of two stocks and Vn-index (2019)......................- 27 Table II.4: The world public debt in 2019 – 2020 and forecast for 2021..........................- 28 Table II.5: the expected rate of return of the two stocks and Vn-index average 3 years...- 28 Table II.6: The covariance................................................................................................- 28 Table II.7: The correlation................................................................................................- 29 Table II.8: The variance frontier and the efficient frontier................................................- 29 Table II.9: Weight investment into stocks.........................................................................- 30 Table II.10: Proportion of investment capital into stocks.................................................- 30 Table II.11: Parameter of risk portfolio.............................................................................- 31 Table III.1: Slope of CAL and slope of CML...................................................................- 31 Table III.2: The expected rate of return and the standard deviation..................................- 32 Table III.3: Maximum fees that can be collected..............................................................- 32 -

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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure I-1: GDP growth forecast........................................................................................- 6 Figure II-1: Stochastic Chart-API.....................................................................................- 17 Figure II-2: MACD Chart-API.........................................................................................- 18 Figure II-3: Price Chart-API.............................................................................................- 18 Figure II-4: Stochastic Chart-MBB..................................................................................- 19 Figure II-5: MACD Chart-MBB.......................................................................................- 19 Figure II-6: Price Chart-MBB..........................................................................................- 20 Figure II-7: The minimum variance frontier and the efficient frontier..............................- 23 Figure III-1: Capital allocation line..................................................................................- 25 -

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INTRODUCTION
How can your money be more than just idle money? Rather than make it profitable in
the long run? This is always a question that makes a lot of people confused. So this study
will help you - prospective investors generalize the stock market and some typical activities.
At the same time, awareness that security is one of the lucrative and risky investment
channels with very high returns.
To achieve the highest level of profits, investors need to grasp the micro-economic
situation, macro-economics of the world as well as in the country. At the same time, it is
necessary to have an investment method and a basic understanding of the laws of price

increase and decrease, the amount of buying and selling in the stock market that can benefit
you from the most effective portfolio.
Therefore, with the requirements of the exercise and the knowledge background learned
through the financial investment subject, our group, as a securities company, will point out
and advise clients to invest. In the long term, helping them choose the stocks that bring the
highest returns and the lowest risks in the future.

 Purpose of the report
Before participating in the stock market, investors must have a good understanding of
indices and how to invest in stocks of all sectors in the market. To make a profitable
investment, you must consider the economic indicators and growth patterns of stocks. For
investors to properly assess the health of the current stock market, we have analyzed and
invested in a securities industry of the financial sector. Through the analysis process, we
found that this is a profitable industry when investing in the medium and long term, if only
investing in the short term, the profitability will be very low.

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I. Macro analysis
1. World economy

Economic growth
Nations

2019

2020

2021

USA

2.30%

-8.00%

4.50%

EU

1.30%

-10.20%

6.00%

Japan

0.70%

-5.80

2.40%

China

6.10%

1.00

8.20%

Table 1.1. World growth in the period 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020.
Through the data table, it can be seen that the growth rates of some key economies of
the world have strong fluctuations in the period 2019-2021.
This volatility was caused by the severe effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the
end of 2020 and early 20121, the world economy has shown signs of gradually stabilizing,
but this is not a fixed trend.
Inflation rate
Nations

2019

2020

2021

USA

2.2%

0.8%

1.6%

EU

1.4%

0.38%

1.33%

Japan

0.5%

0.2%

0.4%

China

2.9%

2.5%

3%

Table 1.2. Inflation in the period of 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021
Inflation is becoming a top concern of all countries, especially countries in Asia. In
recent years, inflation has decreased and the macroeconomy has remained relatively stable in

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the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the macro-economy still has many
uncertainties and unpredictable factors.
Unemployment rate
Nations

2019

2020

2021

USA

3.8%

6.7%

5%

EU

7.4%

8.5%

8.1%

Japan

2.4%

3.3%

2.8%

China

3.62%

4.2%

3.64%

Table 1.3. The world unemployment situation in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021
In recent years, Japan and China have been rated as the countries with the lowest
unemployment rates in the world (below 5%). Europe and America are still at a relatively
high level. Overall in these countries - are the world leaders in all aspects but unemployment
still occurs due to high and strict requirements for the workforce.
Public Debt (in billion US dollars)
Nations

2019

2020

2021

USA

22,719.4

26,945.39

28,132.57

EU

10,035.89

14,550.03

16,899.03

Japan

12,560.02

13,354.7

13,593.95

China

8,091.31

9,772.07

11,603.81

Table 1.4. The world public debt in 2019 – 2020 and forecast for 2021
The worldwide debt situation is on the rise. The public debt of many countries has
exceeded the safety threshold.
In the period 2019-2021, it can be seen that a public debt crisis and economic
instability can occur and hamper global economic growth.
2. Vietnam Economy
2.1 Growth of GDP
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2019

2020

2021

Vietnam
7.0%
2.8%
6.8%
Table 1.5. Growth of GDP in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021
Following the data, the Vietnamese economy still grew positively in 2020 despite the
Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a decline in global economic growth. Accordingly, the
Government's effective anti-epidemic measures and socio-economic development had a
major impact in protecting the economy from pandemics last year, with GDP growth of
2.8%, among the highest growth rates in the world in the past year.
2.2 Inflation rate

2019

Vietnam

2020

2021
2.8%
3.2%
2.65% - 3.5%
Table 1.6. Inflation rate in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021

In general, Vietnam's average inflation rate is about 3%, reaching the set target.
Inflation is controlled in 2019 (2.8%) thanks to falling world commodity prices,
conservative credit policies, stable exchange rates and not much increase in prices of
medical services. However, in 2020, inflation will increase slightly by 0.5% because under
the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, domestic demand will continue to increase
strongly in essential goods and health care. In order to control inflation in 2021, macro
policies need to coordinate and consistently aim at "centralizing macroeconomic stability".
2.3 Interest rate
The inflation rate in 2021 is expected to be 2.65% - 3.5%, deposit rates are now
approaching historical lows, but lending rates may still fall further due to the impact of
policy lag. . The State Bank of Vietnam will continue to step up to cut borrowing costs to
boost credit growth in the context of economic recovery.
2.4 Unemployment rate
2019
Vietnam

2020

2021

2.16%
3.3%
2.7%
Table 1.7. Unemployment rate in Vietnam in 2019-2020 and forecast for 2021

The data shows that the unemployment rate in Vietnam is currently at a negligible
level, despite a slight increase of 1.14% in 2020 due to the Covid-19 epidemic. The

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government expects Vietnam's unemployment rate to fall again by 2021 and fluctuate at
2.7%.
2.5 Exchange rate
From 2001 up to now, the VND has always been in a downward trend against the
USD in nominal terms, averaging 2.5% per year. However, 2020 is an exceptional year when
the USD price not only does not increase, or even decreases slightly compared to the VND.
Due to the Covid-19 epidemic, the aggregate demand of the Vietnamese economy
was severely impaired. GDP growth is only 2.91%, while the total retail sales of consumer
goods and services in 2020 will decrease by 1.2% over the same period last year after
excluding the price factor. This is the main reason leading to an increase of only 3.6% in
imports in 2020.
The trend of the VND / USD exchange rate in the coming time depends on how the
State Bank (SBV) will intervene in the foreign exchange market. In the context of a high
trade surplus in 2020, the SBV bought a large amount of USD to stabilize the VND / USD
exchange rate, while increasing foreign exchange reserves to over 90 billion USD. However,

this exchange rate intervention policy has become one of the reasons for the US Treasury
Department to put Vietnam on the list of currency manipulation countries, along with
Switzerland.
Therefore, it can be said that in the coming time, the State Bank will be much more
cautious in buying foreign currencies to increase foreign exchange reserves. In 2021, the
State Bank of Vietnam may buy less USD than in 2020 so that the total amount of foreign
currency purchased does not exceed 2% of GDP (this is the threshold set by the US
Department of Finance to consider countries manipulating currencies. are not). This, if it
happens, may cause the VND to appreciate slightly against the USD in 2021.
2.6 Balance of trade

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In the context of a risky and unstable world economy, a decline in global trade, and a
drop in exports of regional countries, Vietnam still maintains a possible export growth rate.
Import and export turnover in 2020 is estimated at 543.9 billion USD, increasing by 5.1%
over the previous year, of which export turnover is 281.5 billion USD, increasing by 5%
compared to the previous year. 6.5%; commodity import reached 262.4 billion USD, up
3.6%. The balance of trade in goods in 2020 is estimated to have an export surplus of 19.1
billion USD, the largest value ever.
2.7 Fiscal policy & Monetary policy
The year 2020 is successful in the coordination and administration of the
macroeconomic policies of the Government, ministries and branches. In particular, the
coordination and management of fiscal policies - a monetary policy continued to be a bright
spot in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, African swine fever epidemic, natural
disasters, floods, saline intrusion ... unpredictable developments. affecting all aspects of
socio-economic life.

In 2021, the global economy has many potential risks and uncertainties; trade
protectionism tensions are expected to continue to mount; FDI inflows continue to take place
strongly in the trend of diversifying the global value chain; number conversion; commodity
prices, energy is forecasted to recover ... In the country, the National Assembly and the
Government set a growth target of about 6%. Besides, many international organizations
forecast that Vietnam has a rapid recovery and high growth, about 4.5-8.1%.
The above context sets forth the need to continue to strengthen the ever more
rhythmic and closer coordination between macroeconomic policies, of which the most
important is the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. such as the administration
between the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank, to increase the efficiency and
effectiveness of policy transmission to the economy, contributing to the rapid recovery of
production, business and consumption to contribute to the recovery. fast and sustainable
socio-economic development in a new normal state.
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3. Based on the analysis above, select and analyze the sectors in which the group
will invest.
According to the Cophieu68 page (May 4, 2021), there are 25 sectors and the figures are
summarized as follows:
Table 1: Industry Group Index

No

Industry Group

1

Real Estate

2

Rubber

3

Security

4

936.5
(5.6)
360.6
(-6.2)
1,079.5
(0.6)

Telecommunications 1,825.0
technology

5

Travel – Services

6

Public services

7

+/-

Pharmaceutical

(25.4)
1,064.5
(68.3)
529.3
(-0.7)
- 1,320.1

Medical – Chemicals (26.1)

8

Education

9

Air

Financial Investment

920.8
(-9.3)
4,072.3
(-97.6)

EPS

PE

ROA

ROE

3,388

18.6

6%

15%

2,033

14.8

5%

7%

1,629

11.9

5%

10%

2,985

11.2

8%

17%

641

54.5

2%

5%

2,122

12.2

8%

14%

4,124

13.1

12%

17%

1,499

13.4

5%

9%

1,800

37.7

6%

1%

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10

11

Mineral

Gas

Banking

13

Steel Industry

14

Oil & Gas Group

15

Plastic- Packaging

16

Fertilizer

(-5.1)
948.8
(8.5)
1,826.4
(53.3)
502.3
(-5.5)
1,360.6
(-11.3)
600.0
(9.3)

Manufacturing

2,098.0

business

(-20.8)

18

Food

19

Trade

20

Seafood

21

(-0.9)

Energy Electricity - 2,005.4

12

17

140.8

882.8
(-16.2)
1,482.4
(-11.5)
1,834.6
(-13.3)

Transport - Port – 842.4
Taxi

Financial Investment

(-14.7)

1,152

25.4

-22%

9%

1,824

10.7

8%

13%

3,071

13.7

2%

16%

775

22.3

2%

6%

1,622

22.5

4%

6%

3,287

9.6

8%

13%

1,287

15.1

4%

22%

3,430

10

6%

21%

5,094

20.6

14%

23%

4,397

14.2

8%

17%

2,745

10.4

8%

8%

2,409

11

7%

11%

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22

Building materials

23

Build

24

25

1,416.7
(-24.3)
0
(0)

Development

915.7

Investment

(-5.6)

Construction

838.5

investment

(-11.3)

3,342

10

10%

19%

2,481

12.1

5%

11%

2,138

17.8

7%

10%

2,656

11

4%

12%

Based on the above industry analysis table together with the impact of the world economy
on the Vietnamese economy in general and the industries in Vietnam in particular. Through
analyzing the above indicators, our team decided to choose two sectors that are Banking and
Real estate.
3.1.

Real Estate Industry

Thanks to the wave of investment shifting, industrial real estate stocks continuously
rallied with market price and liquidity increasing dramatically. This is also a group of stocks
that are forecasted to have many prospects in 2021, especially in businesses that still have a
lot of land for lease.
Vietnam, with the strong point, is planning industrial zones spread over three regions to
take advantage of seaports. Specifically, Vietnam has 336 established industrial zones with a
total industrial land area of 97,800 hectares.
In which, there are 261 industrial zones in operation with a total leased area of 66,000
hectares, accounting for 76% of occupancy. Absorption rates in key economic zones have
been very positive and new rents have also increased well. As of quarter 3/2020, industrial
land for lease in Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Long An increased by 20-30% over the
previous year.

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Vietnam has many favorable factors supporting industrial real estate stocks. Which,
Vietnam economy is forecasted to recover the most in the ASEAN region; Japanese and
Korean FDI enterprises committed to increasing investment in Vietnam; a wave of
production shifting from electronics and technology FDI enterprises in China to Southeast

Asia ... Not to mention, the supply cannot expand rapidly, the rental price is forecasted to
increase sharply for the existing industrial zones.
Why invest in real estate:
Vietnam is controlling quite well the covid-19 translation, after the fluctuations caused by
covid-19.The return of real estate in the market promises to be better than ever, the third
quarter of financial statements of companies brought a confidence and optimism to investors
in a quarter. 4/2020 with an impressive "profit drop point". KB Vietnam Securities Joint
Stock Company (KBSV) realizes the expectation in the last three months of the year has
many reasons, partly because COVID infections have become rare, society has opened up,
especially People became more open to the market, the demand for land at the end of the
year increased. Knowing this trend, businesses and companies have taken advantage of the
opportunity to start selling their apartments at an attractive price due to receiving loans and
help from the post-COVID government.
3.2.

Banking Industry

According to Business News (BNews) - the general economic information page of
Vietnam News Agency. By the end of 2020, despite facing difficulties due to epidemics,
many banks have exceeded their profit targets year. The year 2021 is forecast to continue to
be a difficult year, but analysts still see it positively for banking activities.
VNDIRECT forecasts that the net profits of banks will recover in 2021 to varying degrees.
Banks 'share prices have risen 32-85% since their lows in the first quarter of 2020 and
gradually returned to the end of 2019. Banks' share prices are close to fair value.
Why invest in the banking industry:
The Vietnamese banking industry has very positive long-term growth prospects, as up to
70% of adults do not have a bank account. In addition, about 4% of the population has a
credit card.
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With 87% of the population under the age of 54, the potential customer group of the retail
banking sector in Vietnam is large and very attractive.
The banking sector in Vietnam is still lagging behind most of Southeast Asian countries and
so the room for growth is very positive. Many Vietnamese banks have invested heavily in ebanking solutions to meet the needs of users.
AFC Vietnam Fund said that Vietnamese banks are undervalued compared to other banks in
the region, especially when compared with good growth and high profits.
4. Demand and supply stocks
The covid-19:
For the real estate business, most clearly affected is the field of commercial premises
for rent, offices for rent, hotels, apartments. The epidemic has prevented people from
shopping directly at shopping malls (down about 70-80% in February and March - according
to CBRE; many store owners have returned their premises, or negotiated to Tenants reduced
prices and many landowners also actively reduced rents by 20-40 %.With the office block,
the epidemic delays investment activities in this block and rental growth will be expected.
Because the number of people working remotely increases or decreases the rate of office
use, so homeowners with short-term lease will be the most vulnerable. According to CBRE,
with the Covid-19 translation scenario is controlled in Q2 / 2020, the vacancy rate in the
office segment in Ho Chi Minh City increased from 7-14%.
Meanwhile, the hotel has almost no visitors, the decrease of tourists has led to a decrease in
the occupancy rate of high-end hotels by 40-60% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the
same period last year. The apartment segment faced difficulties when the demand for buying
for living, buying for investment and the group of foreign visitors decreased, the number of
transactions in the quarter decreased by 80% compared to the same period last year, the
absorption rate was only 14.3. % (according to the Real Estate Brokerage Association); Also
in Ho Chi Minh City, the apartment consumption rate in Q1 / 2020 decreased 37% compared
to the same period last year. In that context, although the product value of the industry
increased slightly (2.65%), much lower than the increase of 4.75% in the first quarter of

2019; However, the stock price of this industry decreased sharply (-26.3%) in the first
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quarter of 2020 compared to the beginning of the year. In particular, the number of real
estate enterprises suspending operations increased the most (94.1%) in the first quarter of
2020 compared to the same period in 2019.
The finance-banking-insurance sector saw a slight decrease in revenue in Q1 / 2020 (2%) compared to the same period, as it was more indirectly affected and lagged. when the
product is in trouble, the company starts to reduce the use of services, poor capital
absorption and bad debt are likely to increase strongly) and is assessed by investors as
potentially high risk, causing the stock price to drop sharply (over 20%). ) compared with
the beginning of the year.
Specifically, for the banking industry, the general difficulty of the economy has directly
affected the credit needs of customers (by the end of Q1 / 2020, credit growth was 1.3%,
much lower than the growth rate). 3.2% in the same period in 2019, according to the State
Bank of Vietnam, reduces revenue, as well as increases the risk of bad debt due to
difficulties of customers and provides more preferential loans to save customers. In addition,
the rescheduling, debt delay and reduction of interest and fees will also reduce the revenue
and profit of banks; causing the bank's share price to drop sharply (-22.4%) compared to the
beginning of the year.
5. Stock market Vietnam
Vietnam's stock market experienced a special first quarter when the VN-Index hit 1.200
points three times. Market liquidity in the first quarter of 2021 recorded impressive growth
with an average trading volume of more than 653 million shares per session, equivalent to an
average transaction value of over VND 15.500 billion/session, up 205% respectively in
volume and 302% in average value. Specifically, the VN-Index reached 1191.44 points, an
increase 79.83% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to 2020. The HNX-Index index
reached 286.67 points, an increase of 44.13% compared to 2020. The Upcom-Index reached

81.41 points, an increase of 6.33% compared to 2020. The liquidity on both exchanges
increased by 64%, equivalent to 19.022 billion VND per session on the two exchanges.
In Hose market on 31/3/2021, the total volume of listed shares reached more than 102.6
billion shares. Listed capitalization value reached more than 4.46 million billion, up 2.28%
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over the previous month, corresponding to an increase of 93.56% over the same period in
2020. Stocks that rose sharply include: raw materials industry (VNMAT) rose 5.69%;
finance (VNFIN) increased 5.55% and healthcare (VNHEAL) increased 5.32%.
In HNX market on 31/3/2021, the total trading volume of the whole market last month
reached 3.65 billion shares, the corresponding trading value reached more than 57,000
billion VND. On average, the trading volume reached more than 158 million shares/session,
the trading value reached more than 2,517.5 billion/session, up 47% over the previous
month. Market capitalization at the end of March reached more than VND 338,100 billion,
an increase of 18.4% compared to the end of February 2021. The most traded stock include:
SHB, PVS, SHS, HUT, KLF
In the Upcom market, the whole market had more than 1.8 billion shares traded, up
131.53% over the previous month, equivalent to a trading value of 28.6 trillion dongs, up by
146.96%. On average, the trading volume reached 80 million shares/session, up 51% from
the previous month. The trading value reached more than 1.2 trillion / session, up 61.06%
over the previous month. Stocks that rose sharply include: finance (IFC), real estate
investment and business (VHD), invest (RGC), building (L45).

II. INVEST IN A TWO-RISKY-ASSET PORTFOLIO AND RISKFREE
ASSET
1. Introducing two stocks listed on Vietnam Security Market
1.1.

Introducing API

a. General summary
Company name: Asia - Pacific Investment Joint Stock Company
Securities: API
Charter capital: 364,000,000,000 VND
Listed shares: 36,400,000 shares
Volume of outstanding shares: 35,400,000 shares
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July 31, 2006: Asia-Pacific Investment Joint Stock Company (APEC Investment., JSC) was
established under Business Registration Certificate No. 0103013346 by the Department of
Planning and Investment of Ho Chi Minh City. Minh Issued on July 31, 2006 with the
capital condition of VND 22.950.000.000. On October 27, 2009, the company's stock API
was listed on UPCOM. In 2010, the stock API was listed on the HNX. On March 13, 2015,
charter capital increased to VND 364,000,000,000 due to retail issuance to strategic
investors.
Business:
Investment consulting services at home and abroad.
Consulting, brokerage, real estate business.
Consulting on business management, business strategy.
Market research and analysis.
b. Fundamental analysis
Table 2: Financial ratios of API

Financial ratios

2019
Earnings per share for the last 4
683
quarters (EPS)
Book value of shares (BVPS)
13,924

2020

Market price to earnings (P/E)

13.32

9.64

0.65

0.92

24.42
5.35

32.02
10.49

Return on equity (ROE)

5.03

9.98

Return on assets (ROA)

1.16

1.91

Current ratio (short term)

1.24

1.2

Solvency of interest

4.95

5

Debt to Total Assets ratio

79.9

81.72

Debt to equity ratio

94.66

114.63

Market price index to book value
(P/B)
Gross profit margin
Return on net sales

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1,452
15,171


Comment:
The market price index on income (P/E) tends to decrease because the business operates
more efficiently than before. Hence EPS increases, leading to lower P/E. In this case the
stock is undervalued and provides an opportunity to buy.
Earnings per share (EPS) tends to increase, although at a low level in 2019, but in 2020, it
will increase sharply and currently at a relatively high level of 1,452. Prove that the
company is doing well. Current ratio> 1 means Assets> Short-term liabilities, now available
short-term assets are greater than short-term needs, so the financial situation of the Company
is healthy at least in the time short.
Fast ratio <0.5, enterprises cannot afford to immediately pay all short-term debts or more
accurately, businesses will face many difficulties if they have to pay off short-term debts
immediately.
The growth index group shows that the company in 2019 has negative growth, this may be
the impact of the covid-19 epidemic, but by 2020 the company has no longer had negative
growth but instead has been positive growth.
The financial ratios of API are mostly lower than the real estate industry average, except

that ROA is not only higher than the industry average but also tends to increase. Thus the
company is more effective in converting investments into profits. While other metrics are
low compared to the industry average, they are safe for companies and investors..
c. SWOT:
Strengths:
Real estate enterprises with reputable brands: On schedule, ensuring product quality. Clear
competitive advantages compared with competitors in the market: The product price is
consistent with good quality, the ability to implement the project on schedule, the reasonable
number of projects. Experienced leadership team: Human resource team. Group's senior
management with international, extensive experience year of experience in the field of real
estate business, management construction at home and abroad. Solid foundation from the
governance system: System of professionally managed and operated professional

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departments.

Sustainable

development

strategy

with

community

orientation

and

environmental protection.
Weakness:
Product types are not diversified: Only real estate development for sale, easily affected
when the market of houses and apartments for sale is unfavorable. Business lines that require
strong financial resources and abundant land fund: The possibility of operating risks if the
economy slows down and goes down.
Opportunities:
Macroeconomic prospects and stable politics: The real estate market is expected to enter a
period of stable growth from 2017. The need to own houses, especially foreign apartments in
Vietnam increases: When documents guiding the Law on Real Estate Business No. 66/2014 /
QH13 are issued, there will be active support to this need. The Group's land fund is mainly
concentrated in Ho Chi Minh City: Taking advantage of economic growth as well as muscle
golden population structure at the head of development of the country
Threats:
Progress of real estate projects in general: Often affected by legal procedures, market
conditions and economic situation. Competitive pressure is increasing: Supply increases
massively in the middle and high-end segments of well-known developers and new investors
entering the market when the market shows signs of recovery. Raising capital may face
difficulties: Because the capital mobilized will depend heavily on loan and customer
mobilization if the market shows signs of reversal. The growth is too fast in a short time:
This is also a challenge in ensuring the quality of corporate governance, products as well as
customer service when human resources fail to keep pace with development. Over the past
years, the Group has focused on human training and preparation to ensure consistent product
and service quality; At the same time, he is gradually meeting the standards of the ASEAN
Corporate Governance Scorecard
d. The reasons to choose stocks

According to some documents, the debt-to-equity ratio should be at a maximum level of 5.
And this rate of the company is 2.3%, which means that the financial ability of the business
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is pretty good. In 2020 the company no longer has negative growth but instead has positive
growth. It means the company is improving and potentially generating higher income, which
will increase the stock price promissory note. EPS in 2020 will be higher than in previous
years. The API stock price is in an uptrend.
1.2.

Introducing MBB

a. General summary
Company name: Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MCSB)
Securities: MBB
Volume of outstanding shares: 2,798,756,872 shares
Business areas: Banking products and services
Type of bank: Joint Stock Commercial Bank
Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank was established in 1994 with the initial goal of
meeting the needs of financial services for Military businesses that support doing business
with an initial charter capital of less than 20 billion VND. In November 2011, the stock of
MCSB, MBB, was listed on the HOSE with the reference price of 13.000 dong/share. Over
the past 20 years of operation, MB has grown and rapidly expanded its operating market.
Therefore, the total assets of MB have increased continuously over the years.
Main activities of the Bank:
Mobilize short, medium and long term capital in the form of term deposits or demand
deposits.

Dealing in bonds and valuable papers.
Trading foreign currencies, gold, making international payments.
Providing short, medium and long term loans to organizations and individuals.
Money brokerage services; electronic banking;…
Products and services: Deposit products, loan products, money deposit, international
payments, other products and service (foreign currency trading, collection-payment services,
foreign currency conversion,..)

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b.

Fundamental analysis

Table 3: Financial ratios of MBB

Financial ratios
Earnings per share for the last 4
quarters (EPS)
Book value of shares (BVPS)
Market price to earnings (P/E)
Market price index to book value (P/B)
Return on asset (ROA) (%)
Return on equity (ROE) (%)
Net interest margin (NIM) (%)

2019

2020

3.596

3.329

17.150
5.78
1.21
2.02
21.13
4.90

18.066
6.91
1.27
1.82
18.36
4.75

Comment:
In general, through the above indexes, we can see that most of MB’s growth indexes tended
to increase. That shows the ability of shareholders to attract investment capital quite well,
shareholders enjoy good profits. However, in 2020, the profitability target will decrease
because The State Bank of Vietnam adjusts the interest rate to suit the economic situation.
MB’s efficiency in using assets and capital resources is quite good.
MBB's financial ratios are all higher than the industry average. This is a good sign for
investors, all indices are good and higher than the industry average, showing that the
company is doing well and has growth potential in the long term. However, except for ROA

which is lower than the industry average and tends to decrease, it shows that the asset
management company is ineffective and not superior to the industry.
c. SWOT:
Strengths:
S1: Strong brand has great prestige
W1: Distribution network has not yet counted
S2: Strong financial capacity
Weaknesses

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Management capacity: management capacity, operating still limited compared to
requirements, cumbersome and ineffective management apparatus. Products are not diverse
yet
Threats:
Competitiveness: Due to low competitiveness, financial ambiguity will increase the number
of banks with financial, technological, and managerial potentials, making competition
pressure increase. Technical technology: pressure to adapt technology and techniques to
compete with foreign banks. Profitability of most commercial banks in Vietnam is still low,
thus limiting the ability to set up risk reserve funds.
Opportunities:
O3: Technology and electronics are abundant development potential
O4: The economy is being created many conditions for recovery
O2: Human resources, talent and talent, proving position; Highly trained, continuously.
d. The reasons to choose stocks
Based on our analysis of MB's growth ratios, we find that investing in MBB stock has
potential. Profit over the years has increased continuously, suitable for investors investing in

MBB shares in the medium and long term.
Customer loan balance / Total deposits (LDR) (2017-2020) increased slightly from 67.11%
to 72.23%. This is an indicator to evaluate the safety of a bank => MBB's LDR is high, the
bank is highly profitable, can reduce the risk of sudden withdrawal of customers' deposits,
but also bear high liquidity risk. MBB's operating efficiency is quite good, high profitability,
efficient, safe operation, and relatively stable growth rate over recent years (2017-2020).
When investors invest in MBB, they will enjoy good returns and bear less risk.
2. Use technical methods to forecast the price of 2 stocks
1.1.

Stocks API
Stochastic Chart – API
%K:

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%D:


Figure II-1: Stochastic Chart-API

Based on the chart that can be seen in early January 2021 the fast stochastic line is
between 80 and 100; until the end of January 2021 and February 2021, the line is trending
drop below 80, in the range of 20-50.
By the end of February 2021 and early March 2021, the fast stochastic increased in the
range of 80-100.
By the end of March 2021, the stochastic line fell to 20 and the low stochastic was
balanced at 20, leading to an increase in the market to signal to sell and the price to decrease.

MACD Chart - API
API – MACD (12,26,9)

Histogram:

MACD:

EMA:

Figure II-2: MACD Chart-API

In March 2021 the MACD line was above the signal line (EMA). Coming mid-March
MACD cut the EMA line and by the end of 3/2021 early 4/2021, it was below the signal line
and > 0, indicating that the uptrend has ended and the selling volume has increased
gradually. Thus the future price will decrease.
Price Chart – API
SMA(20):

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SMA(50):