Tải bản đầy đủ (.pdf) (52 trang)

OPPORTUNITIES IN AN URBANIZING WORLD doc

Bạn đang xem bản rút gọn của tài liệu. Xem và tải ngay bản đầy đủ của tài liệu tại đây (2.09 MB, 52 trang )

$SULO
7KRXJKWOHDGHUVKLSIURP&UHGLW6XLVVH5HVHDUFK
DQGWKHZRUOGŒVIRUHPRVWH[SHUWV
2SSRUWXQLWLHVLQDQ
XUEDQL]LQJZRUOG
5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH
(PHUJLQJ0DUNHW

&RQWHQWV
)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQSOHDVHFRQWDFW
$OH[DQGHU5HGPDQ(0($(TXLW\6WUDWH
JLVW&UHGLW6XLVVH,QYHVWPHQW%DQNLQJ
5HVHDUFKDOH[UHGPDQ#FUHGLWVXLVVHFRP
)DQ&KHXN:DQ+HDGRI5HVHDUFK$VLD
3DFLILF&UHGLW6XLVVH3ULYDWH%DQNLQJ
FKHXNZDQIDQ#FUHGLWVXLVVHFRP
&29(53+272,672&.3+272&20+8',(003+272,672&.3+272&206$&.
 (GLWRULDO
 $QXUEDQL]LQJZRUOG
 'HILQLQJWKHFRXQWULHVLQWKLVVWXG\
 $FHQWXU\RIXUEDQL]DWLRQ
 8UEDQJURZWKRYHUWKHQH[W\HDUV
 7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUFDSLWD
HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGXUEDQL]DWLRQ
 :K\KDYHVRPHUHJLRQVXUEDQL]HG
OHVVVXFFHVVIXOO\WKDQRWKHUV"
 7KHRXWORRNIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQJURZWKLQ
XUEDQKRXVLQJDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
 7KHHPHUJLQJPDUNHWFRQVXPHU
WKHPHLVOLQNHGWRXUEDQL]DWLRQ
 (GXFDWLRQOHYHOVDQGKXPDQFDSLWDO


 (QYLURQPHQWDODQGKHDOWKLPSOLFDWLRQV
 8UEDQL]DWLRQIRFXVFRXQWULHVDWD
JODQFH
 &KLQD
VHHV&KLQDH[FHHGXUEDQL]DWLRQ
 (J\SW
$GGUHVVLQJWKHKRXVLQJVKRUWIDOOLVFULWLFDO
 ,QGLD
3DFHRIXUEDQL]DWLRQVKLIWLQJXSDJHDU
 ,QGRQHVLD
1DWLRQDOŔPDVWHUSODQŕIRULQIUDVWUXFWXUH
GHYHORSPHQW
 1LJHULD
(QRUPRXVFKDOOHQJHVDKHDG
 3DNLVWDQ
([WUHPHO\KLJKXUEDQL]DWLRQJURZWKUDWHXS
WR
 3KLOLSSLQHV
(IIHFWLYHJRYHUQDQFHQHHGHGIRUXUEDQ
GHYHORSPHQW
 7KDLODQG
:HOOSRVLWLRQHGIRUIXUWKHUXUEDQL]DWLRQ
 9LHWQDP
1HHGVWRLPSOHPHQWDZHOOGHILQHG
GHYHORSPHQWSODQ
 ,PSULQW'LVFODLPHU
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
(GLWRULDO
,QWKHKXQGUHG\HDUVEHWZHHQDQGWKHJOREDOSRSX
ODWLRQLVXQGHUJRLQJDQLUUHYHUVLEOHVWUXFWXUDOWUDQVLWLRQLQWKHZD\

ZHOLYH'UDZQE\WKHHFRQRPLFOLIHVW\OHDQGVRFLDORSSRUWXQLWLHV
RIXUEDQGZHOOLQJWKHZRUOGŒVSRSXODWLRQLVPLJUDWLQJIURPUXUDO
DUHDVŏDFFRXQWLQJIRURIJOREDOSRSXODWLRQLQŏWR
FLWLHVŏDFFRXQWLQJIRURIJOREDOSRSXODWLRQE\EDVHG
RQ8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHFWLRQV,QWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKH
SODQHWŒVSRSXODWLRQOLYLQJLQXUEDQDUHDVFURVVHGWKHWKUHVK
ROGDQGE\FLWLHVLQGHYHORSLQJQDWLRQVZLOOFRQWDLQKDOIWKH
ZRUOGŒVWRWDOSRSXODWLRQ
8UEDQL]DWLRQFRQWLQXHVWRSURYLGHRQHRIWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQW
GULYHUVRIJURZWKIRUWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\7\SLFDOO\DVWKHVKDUH
RIDFRXQWU\ŒVXUEDQSRSXODWLRQULVHVE\ILYHSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWV
WKHUHLVDQDVVRFLDWHGJDLQLQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\RI
,WLVFULWLFDOWKDWJRYHUQPHQWVRIUDSLGO\XUEDQL]LQJFRXQ
WULHVHIIHFWLYHO\GHOLYHUWKHQHFHVVDU\SROLF\PL[IURPXUEDQ
SODQQLQJZLWKDSSURSULDWHOHYHOVRILQYHVWPHQWLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
DQGDIIRUGDEOHKRXVLQJWKURXJKWRVRFLDOSURJUDPVDOORZLQJ
PRUHEDODQFHGLQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQQHFHVVDU\WRHQVXUHWKDWWKH
DSSURSULDWHOHYHORIDVVRFLDWHGJURZWKSRWHQWLDOLVXQORFNHGDV
WKHLUSRSXODWLRQVPLJUDWHWRZDUGVFLWLHV
([SORULQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLF
JURZWKDQGXUEDQL]DWLRQZHILQGWKDWWKHUHLVDVZHHWVSRWDV
FRXQWULHVXUEDQL]HLQWKHUDQJHRIŏRIWRWDOSRSXOD
WLRQDFFRPSDQLHGE\SHDNSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWK,PSRUWDQWO\
WKHSRSXODWLRQZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHOHYHORIXUEDQL]DWLRQLQHPHUJ
LQJPDUNHWVLVFXUUHQWO\YHUVXVIRUGHYHORSHGPDU
NHWV7KHHPHUJLQJPDUNHWUHJLRQVFORVHVWWRWKHXUEDQL]DWLRQ
VZHHWVSRWDUH1RQ-DSDQ$VLDDQG6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD
:HDUJXHWKDWWKHEHVWRSSRUWXQLWLHVIURPWKHHPHUJLQJPDU
NHWVXUEDQL]DWLRQWKHPHDUHWKRVHUHODWHGWRFRXQWULHVRIIHULQJ
WKHIROORZLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFVODUJHWRWDOSRSXODWLRQVDFXUUHQW

XUEDQL]DWLRQUDWHLQWKHUDQJHRIŏDORZ*,1,FRHIIL
FLHQWXQLQWHUUXSWHGDFFHVVWRFDSLWDOPDUNHWVDQGSUHIHUDEO\
ORZRUGHFUHDVLQJOHYHOVRIFRUUXSWLRQ*OREDOO\WKHVHFULWHULD
ZRXOGWKHUHIRUHILW&KLQD(J\SW,QGLD,QGRQHVLD1LJHULD3DNL
VWDQ3KLOLSSLQHV7KDLODQGDQG9LHWQDP
:HILQGWKDWDVFRXQWULHVXUEDQL]HWKHUHLVW\SLFDOO\DQDVVR
FLDWHGLQFUHPHQWDOJDLQLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQVKDUHRI*'3ZKLFK
ZHDUJXHLVSDUWLFXODUO\UHOHYDQWLQWKHFDVHRI&KLQD0RUHRYHU
HVVHQWLDOIRUWKHJURZWKDQGGHYHORSPHQWRIHPHUJLQJHFRQR
PLHVLVWKHVWURQJDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHUDWHRIXUEDQL]DWLRQ
DQGLPSURYHGOHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQDQGSURGXFWLYLW\ZKLFK
VWUHQJWKHQDQDWLRQŒVKXPDQFDSLWDO&ULWLFDOIRUWKHRXWORRNRQ
JOREDOFDUERQHPLVVLRQVZLOOEHWKHXUEDQGHQVLW\XOWLPDWHO\
DFKLHYHGLQWKHJURZLQJFLWLHVRI&KLQD,QGLDDQGRWKHUGHYHORS
LQJQDWLRQV:LOOWKH\DFKLHYHWKHGHQVLW\RI1HZ<RUNZLWKLWV
ORZSHUFDSLWDHPLVVLRQVRUWKHKLJKHUHPLVVLRQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
ORZHUGHQVLW\PRUHVSUDZOLQJFLWLHVLQWKH86VXQEHOW"
*LOHV.HDWLQJ
+HDGRI*OREDO5HVHDUFK
IRU3ULYDWH%DQNLQJDQG
$VVHW0DQDJHPHQW
6WHIDQR1DWHOOD
+HDGRI*OREDO(TXLW\
5HVHDUFK
,QYHVWPHQW%DQNLQJ
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
$QXUEDQL]LQJZRUOG
,Q\HDUVKDOIWKHZRUOGŒVSHRSOHZLOOOLYHLQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWFLWLHV
8UEDQL]DWLRQSURYLGHVRQHRIWKHNH\GULYHUVRIJURZWKIRUWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\
:HLGHQWLI\WKHFKDOOHQJHVDQGH[SORUHWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUJRYHUQPHQWVDQG

LQYHVWRUVDVHPHUJLQJPDUNHWSRSXODWLRQVPLJUDWHWRZDUGVFLWLHV
3+272,672&.3+272&207200/
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
,Q\HDUVKDOIWKHZRUOGŒVSHRSOHZLOO
OLYHLQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWFLWLHV

 





          

/HVVGHYXUEDQ /HVVGHYUXUDO 0RUHGHYXUEDQ 0RUHGHYUXUDO
)LJXUH
:RUOGXUEDQDQGUXUDOSRSXODWLRQIRUGHYHORSHGDQG
GHYHORSLQJUHJLRQVRIWRWDO
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW
&UHGLW6XLVVH
)LJXUH
$YHUDJHDQQXDOLQFUHDVHLQXUEDQSRSXODWLRQIRUHPHUJLQJ
PDUNHWUHJLRQVDQGGHYHORSHGPDUNHWVP
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW
&UHGLW6XLVVH





















(DVWHUQ(XURSH /DWLQ$PHULFD
0(1$
6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD
1RQ-DSDQ$VLD
'HYHORSHGPDUNHWV










,QWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHSODQHWŒVSRSXODWLRQ
OLYLQJLQXUEDQ

DUHDVFURVVHGWKHWKUHVKROG
,QLWLDOO\DGHYHORSHGPDUNHWSKHQRPHQRQD
XUEDQL]DWLRQUDWHKDGEHHQUHDFKHGE\WKH
IRFXVRI XUEDQL]DWLRQ KDV VZLWFKHGWR GHYHORSLQJ
QDWLRQV DV WKH\ UDSLGO\ LQGXVWULDOL]H $IWHU 
PRUHSHRSOHZLOODOVROLYHLQFLWLHVWKDQUXUDODUHDVLQ
GHYHORSLQJ QDWLRQV DQG E\  WKRVH FLWLHV ZLOO
FRQWDLQKDOIWKHZRUOGŒVWRWDOSRSXODWLRQ
7KLV\HDUWKHSRSXODWLRQRIWKHZRUOGŒVFLWLHVZLOO
JURZE\DIXUWKHUPLOOLRQSHRSOHHTXDOLQVL]HWR
WKHWRWDOSRSXODWLRQRI)UDQFHDFFRUGLQJWR8QLWHG
1DWLRQVHVWLPDWHV6RPHRIWKLVLQFUHDVHZLOO
RFFXULQWKHFLWLHVRIGHYHORSLQJQDWLRQV
7KHDQQXDOLQFUHDVHLQWKHSRSXODWLRQRIGHYHO
RSLQJQDWLRQFLWLHVZLOOSHDNFORVHWRDWRYHU
PLOOLRQSHRSOHSHUDQQXPIURPWKHFXUUHQW
PLOOLRQ ZKLOH LQ GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV WKH SDFH RI
LQFUHPHQWDO DQQXDO JDLQ LV DOUHDG\ LQ VWUXFWXUDO
GHFOLQHIURPWKHFXUUHQW VL[PLOOLRQSHUDQQXPWR
IRXUPLOOLRQE\DFFRUGLQJWR81HVWLPDWHV
/RRNLQJDWSRSXODWLRQSURMHFWLRQVLQWKHZRUOGŒV
ODUJHVWXUEDQDJJORPHUDWLRQVLQZHQRWH
WKDWMXVWWZRŏ7RN\RDQG1HZ<RUN&LW\ŏDUHLQ
GHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV
1RWDVLQJOHRQHRIWKHZRUOGŒVIDVWHVWSUR
MHFWHGJURZLQJPDMRUFLWLHVLVLQDGHYHORSHGFRXQ
WU\7KH FLWLHV ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW HVWLPDWHG ŏ

FRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHLQSRSXODWLRQ
ZKLFKDOOKDGPRUHWKDQILYHPLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWVLQ
 DUH LQ $IULFD DQG WKH ,QGLDQ VXEFRQWLQHQW
2XW RI WKH WRS  IDVWHVWJURZLQJ PDMRU FLWLHV
JOREDOO\VHYHQDUHLQ&KLQDDQGVL[DUHLQ,QGLD
7KH SRSXODWLRQ RI .LQVKDVD WKH FDSLWDO RI '5
&RQJRLVSURMHFWHGWRLQFUHPHQWDOO\JURZE\PRUH
WKDQDQ\RWKHUFLW\JOREDOO\IURPWRDWD
UDWH RI DQ DGGLWLRQDO SHRSOH SHU DQQXP
7KHSRSXODWLRQVRI.RONDWD/DJRV.DUDFKL0XP
EDL 'KDND 'HOKL DQG .LQVKDVD ZLOO DOO ULVH E\
EHWZHHQDQGWKRXVDQGSHRSOHSHUDQQXP
IURP QRZ XQWLO DW OHDVW  EDVHG RQ 8QLWHG
1DWLRQV HVWLPDWHV %\ FRPSDULVRQ WKH JUHDWHVW
SRSXODWLRQLQFUHDVHSHUDQQXPRYHUWKHVDPHGXUD
WLRQRIDOOGHYHORSHGPDUNHWFLWLHVZLOOEHLQ1HZ<RUN
&LW\DGGLQJDQDYHUDJHSHRSOHSHUDQQXP
+RQJ .RQJ DQG /RV $QJHOHV DUH LQ MRLQW VHFRQG
SODFHDGGLQJDQDYHUDJHSHRSOHSHUDQQXP
,QGHYHORSHGPDUNHWVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIXUEDQ
SRSXODWLRQDFURVVDVSHFWUXPRIILYHUDQJHVRIFLW\
VL]H E\ QXPEHU RI SHRSOH LV VKRZLQJ HYLGHQFH

 ,QYLUWXDOO\DOOQDWLRQVRIILFLDOGHILQLWLRQVHQVXUHWKDWWKHXUEDQ
SRSXODWLRQLQFOXGHVDOOVHWWOHPHQWVZLWKRUPRUHLQKDELW
DQWVEXWJRYHUQPHQWVGLIIHUUHJDUGLQJZKDWVPDOOHUVHWWOHPHQWV
WKH\LQFOXGHDVXUEDQFHQWUHVŏIURPWKRVHWKDWLQFOXGHDVXUEDQ
DOOVHWWOHPHQWVZLWKDIHZKXQGUHGLQKDELWDQWVWRWKRVHWKDW
LQFOXGHRQO\VHWWOHPHQWVZLWKRUPRUHLQKDELWDQWV
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B


      ( (
7RN\R
'HKOL
0XPEDL
6¥R3DXOR
'KDND
0H[LFR&LW\
1HZ<RUN
.RONDWD
6KDQJKDL
.DUDFKL
/DJRV
.LQVKDVD
%HLMLQJ
0DQLOD
%XHQRV$LUHV

 
 






)LJXUH
3RSXODWLRQKLVWRU\RIWKHODUJHVWXUEDQDJJORPHUDWLRQVLQőV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
3+272,672&.3+272&207200/











ŏ
( (
ŏ
( (
ŏ
(
'HOKL
0XPEDL
'KDND
.RONDWD
6KDQJKDL
.DUDFKL
/DJRV
.LQVKDVD
%HLMLQJ
.KDUWRXP
'DUHV
6DODDP
+R&KL
0LQK&LW\

1DLUREL
&DLUR
&KHQQDL
&KLWWDJRQJ
%DQJDORUH
6KHQ]KHQ
+\GHUDEDG
,QGLD
%DJKGDG
&KRQJTLQJ
7LDQMLQ
*XDQJ]KRX
/DKRUH
0DQLOD

             ( ( (









! 
ŏ
 
ŏ
P


)LJXUH
1XPEHURIJOREDOODUJHXUEDQDJJORPHUDWLRQVŏ(SRSXODWLRQPLOOLRQV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
RIVWDELOL]LQJZLWKDVPDOOPDMRULW\RIWKHSRSXOD
WLRQOLYLQJLQVPDOOHUFLWLHVEHORZ
SHRSOH
,QFRQWUDVWWKHUHLVDVWURQJHUPRUHSHUVLVWHQW
WUHQGZLWKLQGHYHORSLQJQDWLRQVIRUWKHSRSXODWLRQ
WREHGUDZQLQWRLQFUHDVLQJO\ODUJHXUEDQDJJORP
HUDWLRQVŏ8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHFWLRQVIRUHFDVWWKDW
RYHUKDOIWKHXUEDQSRSXODWLRQZLOOOLYHLQFLWLHVZLWK
PRUHWKDQLQKDELWDQWVE\7KHSUR
SRUWLRQRIWKHXUEDQSRSXODWLRQUHVLGLQJLQFLWLHVRI
EHWZHHQ RQH DQG ILYH PLOOLRQ LQKDELWDQWV DQG LQ
PHJDFLWLHVPLOOLRQSOXVLQKDELWDQWVLVJURZLQJ
DWWKHTXLFNHVWSDFH
6LQFH  WKH QXPEHU RI XUEDQ DJJORPHUD
WLRQV PRYLQJ LQWR WKH PHJDFLW\ EUDFNHW RYHU 
PLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWVKDVDYHUDJHGDUDWHRIWKUHHSHU
HDFKILYH\HDULQWHUYDO8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHFWLRQV
LQGLFDWH WKLV SDFH LV IRUHFDVW WR FRQWLQXH XQWLO DW
OHDVW)URPWKHQXPEHURIPDMRUFLWLHV
EHWZHHQILYHDQGPLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWVDQGODUJH
FLWLHVEHWZHHQDQGILYHPLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWVLV
IRUHFDVW WR JURZ E\ DQ DYHUDJH RI RYHU IRXU SHU
ILYH\HDULQWHUYDO%\WKHUHZLOOEHPHJD
FLWLHVPDMRUFLWLHVDQGODUJHFLWLHVRIZKLFK
ZLOOEHLQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVLQWKHZRUOGYHU
VXVDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\WRGD\

/RRNLQJDWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIXUEDQDJJORP
HUDWLRQV RI RYHU RQH PLOOLRQ SOXV LQKDELWDQWV E\
FRXQWU\E\WKH\HDU&KLQDZLOOOHDGWKHZRUOG
ZLWKIROORZHGE\,QGLDZLWKDQGWKH8QLWHG
6WDWHVZLWK$V UHFHQWO\ DV  WKH 8QLWHG
VWDWHVKDGWKHKLJKHVWQXPEHURIRQHPLOOLRQSOXV
LQKDELWDQW XUEDQ DJJORPHUDWLRQV JOREDOO\ ZLWK D
WRWDORI,QWHUHVWLQJO\WKHRQO\FRXQWU\ZLWKD
VLJQLILFDQW QXPEHU RI RQH PLOOLRQ SOXV LQKDELWDQW
XUEDQDJJORPHUDWLRQVIRUHFDVWWRVHHDGHFOLQHLQ
VXFKFLWLHVLV5XVVLD
2XUKHDWPDSVKRZLQJWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIFRXQ
WULHV DFURVV ILYH TXLQWLOHV RI SURMHFWHG FRPSRXQG
DQQXDO JURZWK UDWH RI XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ EHWZHHQ
DQGEDVHGRQ8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHF
WLRQVUHYHDOVWKDWWKRVHFRXQWULHVZLWKWKHVZLIWHVW
)LJXUH
$YHUDJHLQFUHPHQWDODQQXDODGGLWLRQWRWKHSRSXODWLRQIRUWKHIDVWHVWJURZLQJFLWLHVJOREDOO\
IRUWKHWKUHH\HDUSHULRGVEHWZHHQDQG(őV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
       (




 

&KLQD ,QGLD 86$ %UD]LO 0H[LFR 1LJHULD 5XVVLD 3DNLVWDQ ,QGRQHVLD -DSDQ 7XUNH\


)LJXUH
1XPEHURIXUEDQDJJORPHUDWLRQVZLWKSRSXODWLRQVH[FHHGLQJRQHPLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWV
VRUWHGE\GHVFHQGLQJQXPEHUSHUFRXQWU\
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
!
ŏ
 ŏ 
ŏ

)LJXUH
&RPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHRIXUEDQSRSXODWLRQIURPWR(VSOLWLQWRDSSUR[LPDWHTXLQWLOHV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
JURZWK UDWHV DUH FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ 6XE6DKDUDQ
$IULFD6RXWKDQG6RXWK(DVW$VLDWKH0LGGOH(DVW
DQG&HQWUDO$PHULFD
7KH5HSXEOLFRI,UHODQGDORQHZLWKLQGHYHORSHG
FRXQWULHV KDV D SURMHFWHG XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ FRP
SRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHH[FHHGLQJRYHU WKH
GXUDWLRQ
7KHUHDUHRXWRIFRQWLQHQWDO6XE6DKDUDQ
$IULFDQ QDWLRQV ZLWK D SURMHFWHG XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ
FRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHH[FHHGLQJRYHU
WKH GXUDWLRQ 7KH KLJKHVW DUH 1LJHU 
8JDQGD  %XUNLQD )DVR  0DODZL
DQG%XUXQGL
7KRVH FRXQWULHV ZLWK VL]HDEOH SRSXODWLRQV DQG
HFRQRPLHVDQGKHQFHRIIHULQJVLJQLILFDQWLQYHVW
PHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVZKHUHWKLVJURZWKUDWHLQXUEDQ
SRSXODWLRQ H[FHHGV  RYHU WKH GXUDWLRQ DUH LQ
GHVFHQGLQJRUGHU.HQ\D3DNLVWDQ

1LJHULD  %DQJODGHVK  9LHWQDP
,QGLD(J\SWDQGWKH3KLOLS
SLQHV
7KHDYHUDJHSURMHFWHGFRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWK
UDWHRIXUEDQSRSXODWLRQEHWZHHQDQG
IRU WKH OHDVW GHYHORSHG UHJLRQV LV  YHUVXV
 IRU OHVV GHYHORSHG UHJLRQV DQG  IRU
PRUHGHYHORSHGUHJLRQV
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
)LJXUH
81SURMHFWHGSRSXODWLRQDQGXUEDQL]DWLRQWUHQGVLQHPHUJLQJDQGGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVDQGUHJLRQV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
&RXQWU\5HJLRQ 7RWDO
SRSXODWLRQ
P
7RWDO
SRSXODWLRQ
(P
&$*5
ŏ
(
8UEDQ
SRSXODWLRQ
P
8UEDQ
SRSXODWLRQ
(P
&$*5
ŏ
(

SRSXOD
WLRQXUEDQ
L]HG
SRSXOD
WLRQXUEDQ
L]HG(
&$*5
ŏ
(
$UJHQWLQD         
%DQJODGHVK         
%UD]LO         
&KLOH         
&KLQD         
&RORPELD         
&]HFK5HSXEOLF         
(J\SW         
+XQJDU\   ŏ      
,QGLD         
,QGRQHVLD         
.HQ\D         
0DOD\VLD         
0H[LFR         
0RURFFR         
1LJHULD         
3DNLVWDQ         
3HUX         
3KLOLSSLQHV         
3RODQG   ŏ      
5XVVLD   ŏ   ŏ   

6DXGL$UDELD         
6RXWK$IULFD         
6RXWK.RUHD   ŏ      
7KDLODQG         
7XUNH\         
9LHWQDP         
1RQ-DSDQ$VLD         
6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD         
/DWLQ$PHULFD         
0(1$         
(DVWHUQ(XURSH   ŏ      
&DQDGD         
)UDQFH         
*HUPDQ\   ŏ   ŏ   
,WDO\   ŏ      
-DSDQ
  ŏ   ŏ   
8QLWHG.LQJGRP         
8QLWHG6WDWHV         
:RUOG         
0RUHGHYUHJLRQV         
/HVVGHYUHJLRQV         
/HDVWGHYUHJLRQV         
7KLVVWXG\IRFXVHVRQDJURXSRIFRXQWULHV
HPHUJLQJPDUNHWVLQDGGLWLRQWRWKH*JURXSRI
LQGXVWULDOL]HGQDWLRQV
7KH HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV FRPSULVH WKH 06&,
(PHUJLQJ 0DUNHWV FODVVLILFDWLRQ FRXQWULHV DQG
WKRVH 06&, )URQWLHU FRXQWULHV ZKLFK ZDUUDQWHG
LQFOXVLRQ JLYHQ WKHLU SRSXODWLRQ VL]H DQG KHQFH

'HILQLQJWKHFRXQWULHVLQWKLVVWXG\
RYHUDOO SRWHQWLDO LQYHVWPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV 7KHVH
FRXQWULHVFROOHFWLYHO\UHSUHVHQWRIWKHWRWDO
HPHUJLQJZRUOGSRSXODWLRQDQGRIIUHH
IORDWDGMXVWHGHPHUJLQJDQGIURQWLHUHTXLW\PDUNHW
FDSLWDOL]DWLRQWKHRQO\QRWDEOHRPLVVLRQEHLQJ7DL
ZDQZKLFKLVH[FOXGHGIURPWKH:RUOG%DQNDQG
81GDWDVHW
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
)LJXUH
8UEDQL]DWLRQLQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWUHJLRQV
XUEDQSRSXODWLRQRIWRWDO
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH
8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
,QWKHKXQGUHG\HDUVEHWZHHQDQGWKH
JOREDOSRSXODWLRQLVXQGHUJRLQJDQLUUHYHUVLEOHVWUXF
WXUDO WUDQVLWLRQ 'UDZQ E\ WKH VXSHULRU HFRQRPLF
OLIHVW\OHDQGVRFLDORSSRUWXQLWLHVRIXUEDQGZHOOLQJ
WKHZRUOGŒVSRSXODWLRQLVPLJUDWLQJIURPUXUDODUHDV
ŏDFFRXQWLQJIRURIJOREDOSRSXODWLRQLQ
ŏWRFLWLHVŏDFFRXQWLQJIRURIJOREDOSRSXOD
WLRQE\EDVHGRQ8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHFWLRQV
7KHSURFHVVRIXUEDQL]DWLRQLVLQWHJUDOWRHYROY
LQJWRZDUGVDPRGHUQLQGXVWULDOHFRQRP\,QLWLDOO\
OHGE\WKHSUHVHQWGD\GHYHORSHGHFRQRPLHVLWLV
QRZ WKH HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV ZKLFK RIIHU WKH FRUH
JURZWK SRWHQWLDO LQ XUEDQL]LQJ HFRQRPLHV /HVV
GHYHORSHGUHJLRQVDUHSURMHFWHGWRXUEDQL]HIURPD
OHYHORIRIWKHLUSRSXODWLRQWRE\
DQGWKHOHDVWGHYHORSHGUHJLRQVIURPWR

RYHUWKHVDPHGXUDWLRQDFFRUGLQJWR8QLWHG
1DWLRQVHVWLPDWHV,QFRPSDULVRQGHYHORSHGPDU
NHWUHJLRQVZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHLUXUEDQL]HGSRSXODWLRQ
IURPLQWRE\
$FHQWXU\RIXUEDQL]DWLRQ

    











/DWLQ$PHULFD (DVWHUQ(XURSH 0(1$ 1RQ-DSDQ$VLD 6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD
3+272,672&.3+272&20+8',(00
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B

    










3HUX
6DXGL$UDELD
+XQJDU\&RORPELD
$UJHQWLQD &KLOH
7XUNH\ &]HFK5HSXEOLF 5XVVLD
%UD]LO 0DOD\VLD
0H[LFR6RXWK.RUHD
)LJXUH
.H\HPHUJLQJPDUNHWVZKHUHWKHSDFHRI
XUEDQL]DWLRQUHPDLQVUDSLGRULVDFFHOHUDWLQJ
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG
1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
*HRJUDSKLFDOO\ WKHUH LV D ZLGH GLVSDULW\ LQ WKH
GHJUHHWRZKLFKHDFKHPHUJLQJPDUNHWUHJLRQKDV
DOUHDG\XUEDQL]HGUDQJLQJIURPDQGLQ
6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFDDQG1RQ-DSDQ$VLDUHVSHF
WLYHO\WRLQ/DWLQ$PHULFDLQ
&OHDUO\LWLV6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFDDQG1RQ-DSDQ
$VLDDWWKHORZHUHQGRIWKHXUEDQL]HGVSHFWUXP
ZKLFK KDV WKH KLJKHVW JURZWK SRWHQWLDO UHDFKLQJ
DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\E\DFFRUGLQJWR
8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHFWLRQV,WLVWKHVHWZRJURZWK
UHJLRQVZKLFKZLOOXOWLPDWHO\IRUPWKHNH\IRFXVRI
WKLVUHSRUW
1H[WZHORRNDWWKHVDPHPHWULFSHUFHQWDJHRI
XUEDQL]HGSRSXODWLRQIRUWKHFRXQWULHVLQFOXGHG
LQWKLVVWXG\VXEGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHJURXSVWKH*
FRXQWULHVWKRVHHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVZKHUHWKHSDFH

RIXUEDQL]DWLRQLVGHFHOHUDWLQJDQGWKRVHHPHUJLQJ
PDUNHWV ZKHUH WKH SDFH RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ UHPDLQV
UDSLGRULVDFFHOHUDWLQJ
2YHUWZRWKLUGVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQVRIHDFKRIWKH
*JURXSRILQGXVWULDOL]HGQDWLRQVDOUHDG\UHVLGHLQ
FLWLHVŏ)UDQFHZDVRYHULQŏDQGKHQFH
WKLVOHYHORIFXUUHQWXUEDQL]DWLRQFRXSOHGZLWKVLJ
QLILFDQWO\ORZHURYHUDOOSRSXODWLRQJURZWKZLWKWKH
QRWDEOHH[FHSWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVUHODWLYHWR
GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV HTXDWHV WR ORZHU RYHUDOO
XUEDQ JURZWK SURVSHFWV LQ GHYHORSHG HFRQRPLHV
YHUVXVWKHLUHPHUJLQJPDUNHWSHHUV
,QWHUHVWLQJO\ D QXPEHU RI GHYHORSLQJ QDWLRQV
KDYHDOUHDG\XUEDQL]HGWROHYHOVFRPSDUDEOHZLWK
WKH*FRXQWULHV)XUWKHUPRUHWKHUHLVDVWURQJ
DSSDUHQWUHJLRQDOWUHQGLQWKHJURXSRIHPHUJLQJ
PDUNHWV ZKHUH WKH SDFH RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ LV QRZ
GHFHOHUDWLQJŏFRQFHQWUDWHGKHDYLO\LQ/DWLQ$PHU
LFDDQG(DVWHUQ(XURSHWKHRQO\H[FHSWLRQVEHLQJ
6RXWK.RUHDDQG6DXGL$UDELD$UJHQWLQD%UD]LO
&KLOH6RXWK.RUHDDQG6DXGL$UDELDDOUHDG\KDYH
DQXUEDQL]DWLRQUDWHLQH[FHVVRI$UJHQWLQD
RYHUDQGDOOFRXQWULHVLQWKLVJURXSFXU
UHQWO\KDYHRYHUWZRWKLUGVRIWKHLUSRSXODWLRQVOLY
LQJLQFLWLHV
6LPLODUO\ WKRVH HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV ZKHUH WKH
SDFHRIXUEDQL]DWLRQUHPDLQVUDSLGRULVDFFHOHUDW
LQJDUHFRQFHQWUDWHGLQ1RQ-DSDQ$VLDDQG$IULFD
ZLWKWKHRQO\H[FHSWLRQEHLQJ3RODQG,WLVWKLVODWWHU
JURXSZKLFKRIIHUVWKHPRVWREYLRXVJURZWKRSSRU

WXQLWLHV WZR WKLUGV RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ LQ 7KDLODQG
9LHWQDP,QGLD%DQJODGHVKDQG.HQ\DVWLOOUHVLGH
LQUXUDODUHDV)XUWKHUPRUHWKLVODWWHUJURXSRI
FRXQWULHV LQFOXGHV VL[ RXW RI HLJKW RI WKH ODUJHVW
SRSXODWLRQV JOREDOO\ LQ GHVFHQGLQJ RUGHU &KLQD
,QGLD ,QGRQHVLD 3DNLVWDQ 1LJHULD DQG %DQJOD
GHVKDQG DPRXQWV WR D SRSXODWLRQ RI ELOOLRQ
SHRSOHRURIWKHJOREDOWRWDO
)LJXUH
.H\HPHUJLQJPDUNHWVZKHUHWKHSDFHRI
XUEDQL]DWLRQLVGHFHOHUDWLQJ
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG
1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH

    









(J\SW
&KLQD
,QGLD7KDLODQG
6RXWK$IULFD 0RURFFR
3DNLVWDQ 9LHWQDP %DQJODGHVK .HQ\D
1LJHULD 3KLOLSSLQHV

,QGRQHVLD3RODQG
)LJXUH
$FHQWXU\RIXUEDQL]DWLRQLQWKH*FRXQWULHV
XUEDQSRSXODWLRQRIWRWDO
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG
1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH

    








)UDQFH 86 *HUPDQ\&DQDGD ,WDO\8.
-DSDQ
3+272,672&.3+272&206$0;0(*
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B





 
&DQDGD
-DSDQ

)UDQFH
*HUPDQ\
3RODQG
+XQJDU\
86$
,WDO\
6RXWK$IULFD
%UD]LO
5XVVLD
&]HFK5HSXEOLF
6RXWK.RUHD
$UJHQWLQD
&KLOH
8.
0H[LFR

&$*5ŏ &$*5ŏ(
)LJXUH
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQFRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHIRUHFDVW
YHUVXVGHOLYHUHGIRUWKHKLJKHVWJURZWKFRXQWULHV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV
6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
)LJXUH
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQFRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHIRUHFDVW
YHUVXVGHOLYHUHGIRUWKHORZHVWJURZWKFRXQWULHV
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV
6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
8UEDQJURZWKRYHUWKHQH[W\HDUV







&$*5ŏ
3DNLVWDQ
7XUNH\
7KDLODQG
&RORPELD
0DOD\VLD
0RURFFR
1LJHULD
,QGRQHVLD
.HQ\D
3KLOLSSLQHV
3HUX
6DXGL$UDELD
&KLQD
9LHWQDP
(J\SW
,QGLD
%DQJODGHVK

&$*5ŏ(
)URPWRWKHSRSXODWLRQRIWKHZRUOGŒV
XUEDQDUHDVZLOOLQFUHDVHE\ELOOLRQSHRSOH2I
WKLVWRWDOVRPHELOOLRQRUZLOOEHLQWKH
FLWLHVRISUHVHQWGD\HPHUJLQJPDUNHWVZKLOHFLWLHV
LQ GHYHORSHG HFRQRPLHV ZLOO KDYH D SRSXODWLRQ
LQFUHDVHRIPLOOLRQRURIWKHWRWDOEDVHG

RQ8QLWHG1DWLRQVSURMHFWLRQV
2YHUWKHVDPHWLPHIUDPHWKHJOREDOUXUDOSRSX
ODWLRQLVVHWWRGHFOLQHE\PLOOLRQŏPLOOLRQ
RURIZKLFKZLOOEHLQSUHVHQWGD\HPHUJLQJ
PDUNHWVDQGWKHUHPDLQLQJGHFOLQHRIPLOOLRQRU
RIWKHWRWDOLQGHYHORSHGHFRQRPLHV
%\ UHJLRQDO GHYHORSPHQW FDWHJRU\WKHIDVWHVW
\HDURQ\HDUJURZWKUDWHVLQXUEDQSRSXODWLRQRYHU
WKH QH[W IRUW\ \HDUV DUH WR EH IRXQG LQ WKH OHDVW
GHYHORSHG DQG OHVV GHYHORSHGUHJLRQV DQG JHR
JUDSKLFDOO\LQ6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFDWKH0LGGOH(DVW
DQG1RUWK$IULFDDQG1RQ-DSDQ$VLD
7KHLQFUHDVHLQXUEDQSRSXODWLRQLVKHDYLO\FRQ
FHQWUDWHGLQDUHODWLYHO\VPDOOQXPEHURIFRXQWULHV
WKHODUJHVWWHQFRQWULEXWLQJFRXQWULHVDFFRXQWIRUD
JDLQRIELOOLRQRYHUWKHQH[WIRUW\\HDUVRU
RIWKHJOREDOWRWDO2IWKHVHWRSWHQRQO\WKH8QLWHG
6WDWHVLVRXWVLGHHLWKHU1RQ-DSDQ$VLDRU$IULFD
,QGLDFRQWULEXWHVWKHKLJKHVWQXPEHULQFUHDVH
RIPLOOLRQSHRSOHIROORZHGE\&KLQDPLO
OLRQ1LJHULDPLOOLRQ3DNLVWDQPLOOLRQ
DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVPLOOLRQ5XVVLDŒVXUEDQ
SRSXODWLRQZLOOGHFOLQHRYHUWKHVDPH GXUDWLRQE\
 PLOOLRQ SHRSOH DFFRUGLQJ WR 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV
HVWLPDWHV
(LJKWRXWRIWKHWHQODUJHVWFRXQWU\FRQWULEXWRUV
WRWKHLQFUHPHQWDOJDLQLQJOREDOXUEDQSRSXODWLRQ
DUHDOVRLQWKHWRSWHQLQWHUPVRIWKHLUFRPSRXQG
DQQXDO JURZWK UDWH LQ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ RYHU WKH
VDPH \HDU SHULRG ,QGLD 1LJHULD 3DNLVWDQ

,QGRQHVLD%DQJODGHVKWKH3KLOLSSLQHV(J\SWDQG
9LHWQDP7KHH[FHSWLRQVDUH&KLQDDQGWKH8QLWHG
6WDWHVZKLFKGHVSLWHWKHODUJHQXPEHUVLQYROYHG
RIIHULQIHULRUJURZWKWR.HQ\DDQG7KDLODQGLQRXU
JURXSRIFRXQWULHV
7KHZHDNHVWXUEDQSRSXODWLRQJURZWKUDWHVLQ
SUHVHQWGD\HPHUJLQJPDUNHWVXSWRDUHLQ
5XVVLD 6RXWK .RUHD 3RODQG +XQJDU\ DQG WKH
&]HFK 5HSXEOLF ŏ DOVR QRWDEO\ WKH ILYH KLJKHVW
*'3 SHU FDSLWD FRXQWULHV LQ RXU VDPSOH RI 
HPHUJLQJPDUNHWV
3+272,672&.3+272&20'$925/29,1&,&
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
)LJXUH
8UEDQL]DWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\8UEDQSRSXODWLRQYHUVXV*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKHVWDWHV
RIWKH86$DWGHFDGHLQWHUYDOVEHWZHHQDQGFRQVWDQW86'
86&HQVXV%XUHDX86%XUHDXRI(FRQRPLF$QDO\VLV&UHGLW6XLVVH
8UEDQL]DWLRQFRQWLQXHVWRSURYLGHRQHRIWKHPRVW
VLJQLILFDQWJURZWKGULYHUVIRUWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\
,WLVFULWLFDOWKDWERWKFHQWUDODQGORFDOJRYHUQ
PHQWV RI UDSLGO\ XUEDQL]LQJ FRXQWULHV HIIHFWLYHO\
GHOLYHUWKHQHFHVVDU\SROLF\PL[IURPXUEDQSODQ
QLQJZLWKDSSURSULDWHOHYHOVRILQYHVWPHQWLQLQIUD
VWUXFWXUHDQGDIIRUGDEOHKRXVLQJWKURXJKWRVRFLDO
SURJUDPVDOORZLQJPRUHEDODQFHGLQFRPHGLVWULEX
WLRQQHFHVVDU\WRHQVXUHWKDWWKHDSSURSULDWHOHYHO
RIDVVRFLDWHGJURZWKSRWHQWLDOLVXQORFNHGDVWKHLU
SRSXODWLRQVPLJUDWHWRZDUGVFLWLHV
+LVWRULFDO WUHQGV LQ XUEDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH *
FRXQWULHVVHUYHDVKHOSIXOSUHFHGHQWVWRLGHQWLI\

WKRVHHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVZKLFKRIIHUWKHVXSHULRU
JURZWK RSSRUWXQLWLHV JLYHQ WKHLU VWDJH RI XUEDQ
HYROXWLRQ
3HUFDSLWD*'3LVJHQHUDOO\VXSHULRULQ
XUEDQWKDQUXUDOSRSXODWLRQV
:H H[DPLQHG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZKLFK KDV 
\HDUVRIGHWDLOHGXUEDQSRSXODWLRQFHQVXVGDWDVHJ
PHQWHGE\VWDWHDVDKHOSIXOSUHFHGHQWWRHVWDEOLVK
WKH OLQN EHWZHHQ WKH SURJUHVVLRQ RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ
DQGJURZWKLQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\
%HWZHHQDQGWKHQXPEHURIVWDWHV
ZLWKRYHURIXUEDQSRSXODWLRQJUHZIURPQLQH
WRRXWRIDQGWKHWRWDO86XUEDQL]HGSRSX
ODWLRQJUHZIURPWRRYHUWKHVDPHGXUD
WLRQ7KHODUJHVWVHYHQVWDWHVLQWHUPVRIFRQWULEX
WLRQWRWRWDO*'3LQWKH86$FROOHFWLYHO\RYHU
RIWKHFRXQWU\ŒV HFRQRPLF RXWSXW DUHLQWKHWRS
WZR TXLQWLOHV E\ UDWH RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ ŏ &DOLIRUQLD
ZLWKD*'3RI86'EQLVWKHPRVW
XUEDQL]HGVWDWHLQWKH86$DW$OOVHYHQRI
WKHVHVWDWHVKDYHRUPRUHRIWKHLUSRSXODWLRQ
UHVLGLQJLQDFLW\
*'3SHUFDSLWDFRQVWDQW86'








8UEDQSRSXODWLRQ
            


5

 

5

 

5

 

5

 

5

 
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUFDSLWD
HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGXUEDQL]DWLRQ
([SDQGLQJRQWKLVWKHPHZHFKDUWHGWKHOHYHORI
XUEDQL]DWLRQXUEDQSRSXODWLRQDVDSHUFHQWDJHRI
WKHWRWDOLQHDFKRIWKHVWDWHVLQWKH86$YHU
VXV WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH SHU FDSLWD *'3 LQ FRQVWDQW
86'WHUPVIRUILYHDQQXDOVDPSOHVWDNHQDW

GHFDGHLQWHUYDOVEHWZHHQDQG
:H IRXQG D VWULNLQJO\ VWURQJ UHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQ WKH WZR PHWULFV DW HDFK RI WKH GHFDGH
WLPHLQWHUYDOVZKHUHGDWDZDVDYDLODEOH
,QWXLWLYHO\WKHUHDUHVHYHUDONH\UHDVRQVZK\SHU
FDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\VKRXOGEHVXSHULRUZLWKLQ
XUEDQDUHDVUHODWLYHWROHVVSRSXODWHGDUHDV
, (PSOR\PHQWVKLIWVIURPORZHUYDOXHDJULFXOWXUDO
ODERUWRKLJKHUYDOXHPRUHVNLOOHGMREVLQPDQX
IDFWXULQJVHUYLFHVDQGILQDQFHWKXVDWWUDFWLQJ
WKHPRVWWDOHQWHGLQWKHZRUNIRUFH&LWLHVDWWUDFW
LQGXVWU\DQGMREVDQGKHQFHFRQWDLQWKHILQDQFLDO
DQG KXPDQ FDSLWDO QHFHVVDU\ IRU HQKDQFHG
WHFKQRORJ\UHVHDUFKDQGGHYHORSPHQW
 &KDUWLQJWKHSURJUHVVLRQRIHPSOR\PHQWLQWKH
DJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI WRWDO
HPSOR\PHQWUHODWLYHWRWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIXUEDQ
L]HGSRSXODWLRQDWILYH\HDULQWHUYDOVIURP
WKURXJKWKHILQDOGDWDSRLQWRQO\EHLQJD
WZR\HDULQWHUYDOIURPVKRZVWKHFRUUH
VSRQGLQJGHFD\LQWKHDJULFXOWXUDOZRUNIRUFHDV
WKHVHFWRUKDVEHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\PHFKDQL]HG
DQGWKHODERUIRUFHKDVPLJUDWHGWRZDUGVFLWLHV
LQVHDUFKRIZRUN
7KHSURFHVVLVUHDFKLQJLWVQDWXUDOFRQFOXVLRQZLWKLQ
*LQGXVWULDOL]HGQDWLRQVOHGE\WKH8.DQG86$
ZKHUH OHVV WKDQ RI WKHLU ZRUNIRUFH LV QRZ
LQYROYHGLQDJULFXOWXUH,WDO\DQG-DSDQKDYHVRPH
ZKDWIXUWKHUWRSURJUHVVRQWKLVWUHQGDVFORVHWR
RIWKHLUODERUIRUFHUHPDLQVLQWKHDJULFXOWXUDO

23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
)LJXUH
(PSOR\PHQWLQDJULFXOWXUHYHUVXVXUEDQSRSXODWLRQUDWHLQHPHUJLQJPDUNHWV
ŏ\HDULQWHUYDOV
6RXUFH:RUOG%DQN'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQ







5

 
(PSOR\PHQWLQDJULFXOWXUHWRWDO
(J\SW
       

&KLQD %UD]LO 0H[LFR 6RXWK.RUHD 5XVVLD
7KDLODQG
6RXWK$IULFD ,QGRQHVLD 7XUNH\ 0DOD\VLD 3RODQG
6DXGL$UDELD
(J\SW
&KLQD
%UD]LO
0H[LFR
6RXWK.RUHD
5XVVLD

7KDLODQG
6RXWK$IULFD
,QGRQHVLD
7XUNH\
0DOD\VLD
3RODQG
6DXGL$UDELD
3+272,672&.3+272&20/3(77(7

     





*H[WRSFLWLHVSHUFDSLWD*'3FXUUHQW86'333
*WRSFLWLHVSHUFDSLWD*'3FXUUHQW86'333
*SHUFDSLWD*'3FXUUHQW86'333

)LJXUH
$YHUDJH*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKH*WKH*ŒVODUJHVW
FLWLHVDQG*H[ODUJHVWFLWLHVFXUUHQW86'WHUPV333
6RXUFH2(&'&UHGLW6XLVVH
)LJXUH
3RSXODWLRQDQG*'3RIWKH*ŒVODUJHVWFLWLHV
DVDSHUFHQWDJHRIWKH*JURXSWRWDO
6RXUFH2(&'&UHGLW6XLVVH

       








3RSXODWLRQRI*WRSFLWLHVDVRI*WRWDO/+6
*'3FRQWULEXWLRQRI*WRSFLWLHV5+6

)LJXUH
3RSXODWLRQDQG*'3RI&KLQDŒVODUJHVWFLWLHV
DVDSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHFRXQWU\WRWDO
6RXUFH&KLQD1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV&UHGLW6XLVVH

       
 






3RSXODWLRQRI&KLQDWRSFLWLHVDVRIWRWDO/+6
*'3FRQWULEXWLRQRI&KLQDWRSFLWLHV5+6

VHFWRUJLYHQWKDWWKHFRQVWLWXHQWVRIWKHDJULFXOWXUDO
PL[LQ,WDO\DQG-DSDQDUHPRUHODERULQWHQVLYH
6LPLODUO\WKHWUHQGLQGHYHORSLQJQDWLRQVLVIRU
WKH SURJUHVVLRQ RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ WR EH FRQVLVWHQW
ZLWKDGHFOLQHLQDJULFXOWXUDOHPSOR\PHQWDVDSHU

FHQWDJHRIWKHWRWDOZRUNIRUFH
6DXGL$UDELD6RXWK.RUHD5XVVLD6RXWK$IULFD
DQG0H[LFRDUHDOUHDG\DSSURDFKLQJGHYHORSPHQW
OHYHOVFRPSDUDEOHZLWK*QDWLRQVRQWKLVPHWULF
&KLQD7KDLODQG(J\SWDQG,QGRQHVLDFOHDUO\KDYH
GHFDGHVWRJRDWWKHLUFXUUHQWUDWHRIXUEDQL]DWLRQ
,, ,QYHVWPHQWSHUFDSLWDLVKLJKHULQXUEDQDUHDVDV
ILUVWO\ ELJWLFNHW LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LWHPV VXFK DV
LQWHUQDWLRQDODLUSRUWVKLJKVSHHGUDLOOLQNVKLJK
ZD\VEURDGEDQGFDSDFLW\PDVVWUDQVLWV\VWHPV
DQGWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDUH RQO\ HFRQRPLFDOO\
YLDEOHZKHUHGHPDQGLVHQVXUHGE\ODUJHSRSX
ODWLRQV6HFRQGO\IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWKDV
KLVWRULFDOO\EHHQFRQFHQWUDWHGZLWKLQXUEDQDUHDV
ZKHUH DFFHVV WR NH\ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH ILQDQFLDO
OHJDODQGFRQVXODUVHUYLFHVDQGDWDOHQWHGODERU
IRUFH LV PRVW DFFHVVLEOH 7KHVH WZR SRLQWV LQ
FRQMXQFWLRQZLWKHDFKRWKHUFOHDUO\EHFRPHVHOI
VXVWDLQLQJ
,,,
3URGXFWLYLW\LQFUHDVHVLQVHUYLFHVDQGPDQXIDF
WXULQJWRJHWKHUZLWKHIILFLHQF\JDLQVLQGLVWULEX
WLRQDQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQYLDWKHHFRQRPLHVRIVFDOH
UHDOL]HGLQFRQFHQWUDWHGSRSXODWLRQFHQWHUV
,9'HOLYHU\RIHVVHQWLDOXWLOLWLHVIUHVKZDWHUVXSSO\
GUDLQDJH HOHFWULFLW\ JDV DQG VRFLDO VHUYLFHV
KHDOWKFDUHHGXFDWLRQFULPHSUHYHQWLRQHWFLV
VLJQLILFDQWO\ FKHDSHU LQ FLWLHV WKDQ LQ VSDUVHO\
SRSXODWHGFRPPXQLWLHV
7RWHVWWKLVWKHVLVRIVXSHULRUXUEDQSHUFDSLWDHFR

QRPLF RXWSXW ZH FROOHFWHG SRSXODWLRQ DQG *'3
GDWDE\FLW\IRUWKHODUJHVWPHWURSROLWDQDUHDVLQWKH
*LQGXVWULDOL]HGQDWLRQVDQG&KLQDIURPWKH2(&'
DQG&KLQD 1DWLRQDO %XUHDX RI 6WDWLVWLFV UHVSHF
WLYHO\ZKLFKZHFRPSDUHGDQGFRQWUDVWHGDJDLQVW
QDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDODJJUHJDWHV
,QWKHODWHVW\HDUIRUZKLFKZHKDYHDOO
WKHQHFHVVDU\FLW\OHYHOGDWDVRPHRI*
*'3ZDVDWWULEXWDEOHWRRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ
OLYLQJLQWKHODUJHVWFLWLHV,QWKHUDWLRZDV
VOLJKWO\PRUHSURQRXQFHGRI**'3IURP
RIWKHWRWDOSRSXODWLRQ
7KH * FRXQWULHV ZLWK WKH PRVW FRQFHQWUDWHG
HFRQRPLFRXWSXWIURPWKHLUODUJHVWFLWLHVDUH)UDQFH
DQG WKH 8. )UDQFH JHQHUDWHV  RI *'3
IURPMXVWRILWVSRSXODWLRQOLYLQJLQ
WKH ODUJHVW IRXU FLWLHV 3DULV /LOOH 0DUVHLOOH DQG
/\RQ7KH8.JHQHUDWHVRI*'3
IURPRQO\RILWVSRSXODWLRQOLYLQJLQWKHODUJ
HVWIRXUFLWLHV/RQGRQ %LUPLQJKDP0DQFKHVWHU
DQG/HHGV
5HPDUNDEO\ LQ  &KLQD JHQHUDWHG VRPH
RI*'3IURPMXVWRILWVSRSXODWLRQ
OLYLQJLQWKHODUJHVWFLWLHV6LQFHWKHWUHQG
IRUWKLVUDWLRKDVLQFUHDVHGLH&KLQDŒVFLWLHVKDYH
EHFRPH HYHQ PRUH FRPSDUDWLYHO\ SURGXFWLYH SHU
FDSLWDUHODWLYHWRLWVUXUDODUHDV,QWKHODUJHVW
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B

      

 









&KLQDH[WRSFLWLHVSHUFDSLWD*'3FRQVWDQW86'
&KLQDWRSFLWLHVSHUFDSLWD*'3FRQVWDQW86'
&KLQDSHUFDSLWD*'3FRQVWDQW86'

)LJXUH
*'3SHUFDSLWDIRU&KLQDLWVODUJHVWFLWLHVDQG&KLQD
H[FOXGLQJLWVODUJHVWFLWLHVFRQVWDQW86'WHUPV
6RXUFH&KLQD1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV&UHGLW6XLVVH
)LJXUH
3HUFDSLWD*'3IRUWKH86WKHDYHUDJHRILWVODUJHVW
FLWLHVDQGHLJKWRIWKHODUJHUFLWLHVFXUUHQW86'WHUPV
6RXUFH2(&'&UHGLW6XLVVH

      

 







&KLFDJR 86$
:DVKLQJWRQ'& +RXVWRQ6DQ)UDQFLVFR 'DOODV%RVWRQ
86WRSFLWLHV
1HZ<RUN
/RV$QJHOHV


      









+DUELQ &KLQD
*XDQJ]KRX %HLMLQJ6KDQJKDL &KRQJTLQJ7LDQMLQ 7RSFLWLHV6KHQ]KHQ
&KHQJGX

FLWLHVLQ&KLQDJHQHUDWHGRIWKHQDWLRQŒV
*'3ZLWKRIWKHQDWLRQŒVSRSXODWLRQ
$W DQ DJJUHJDWH OHYHO WKH ZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH
*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKH*ŒVWRSFLWLHVLV
86'YHUVXV86'LQUXUDODUHDV
2QFHDJDLQLWLV)UDQFHDQGWKH8.ZKLFKKDYH
WKH JUHDWHVW XUEDQ YHUVXVUXUDO LQFRPH GLYLGH ,Q

)UDQFHXUEDQ*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKHIRXU
ODUJHVWFLWLHVLV86'YHUVXV86'
LQ UXUDO DUHDV D UDWLR RI [ ZKLOH LQ WKH 8.
XUEDQ*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKHIRXUODUJHVW
FLWLHVLV86'YHUVXV86'LQUXUDO
DUHDVDUDWLRRI[
$W DQ DJJUHJDWH OHYHO WKH ZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH
*'3 SHU FDSLWD  FXUUHQW 86' IRU &KLQDŒV
ODUJHVWFLWLHVLV86'YHUVXV86'
LQ UXUDO DUHDV D UDWLR RI [ ,Q  FXUUHQW
86'WKHUHVSHFWLYHILJXUHVZHUH86'YHU
VXV86'DUDWLRRI[
'HYHORSHGHFRQRPLHVKDYHFRPSDUDEOH
UXUDODQGXUEDQSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKUDWHV
ZKLOHLQHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHVXUEDQSRSXOD
WLRQVH[KLELWVWURQJHUJURZWK
$NH\GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHXUEDQUHODWLYHWRUXUDO
LQFRPHSHUFDSLWDG\QDPLFVLQ*YHUVXV&KLQDLV
WKDWLQWKH*WKHSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKLQFLWLHV
LVFRPSDUDEOHWRWKDWLQUXUDODUHDVWKHWR
 VL[\HDU &$*5 LQ FRQVWDQW ORFDO FXUUHQF\
WHUPVLVYHUVXVUHVSHFWLYHO\ZKLOHLQ
&KLQDSHUFDSLWDLQFRPHJURZWKLQFLWLHVLVVXSHULRU
WRWKDWLQUXUDODUHDVWKHWRHLJKW\HDU
&$*5 LQ FRQVWDQW 50% WHUPV LV  YHUVXV
UHVSHFWLYHO\
7KHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHODUJHUFLWLHV
LQDFRXQWU\KDYHVXSHULRUSHUFDSLWD*'3
)XUWKHUPRUHZHILQGHYLGHQFHWKDWSHUFDSLWD*'3
WHQGV WR EH KLJKHU IRU WKH PRUH SRSXORXV FLWLHV

ZLWKLQ D SDUWLFXODU FRXQWU\ UHODWHG WR WKH HFRQR
PLHVRIVFDOHGLVFXVVHGDERYH
(LJKWRXWRIWHQRIWKHPRVWSRSXORXVFLWLHVLQ
WKH 86$ H[FOXGLQJ 0LDPL DQG 3KLODGHOSKLD DOO
KDYHSHUFDSLWD*'3DWVLPLODUOHYHOVRUVLJQLILFDQWO\
DERYHWKHDYHUDJHIRUWKHODUJHVW86FLWLHV
6LPLODUO\ LQ &KLQD WKH ODUJHU PHJDFLWLHV
DSSURDFKLQJPLOOLRQRUPRUHLQKDELWDQWVW\SL
FDOO\JHQHUDWHSHUFDSLWD*'3DWVLPLODURUVLJQLIL
FDQWO\KLJKHUOHYHOVWKDQWKHDYHUDJHIRUWKHODUJHVW
 &KLQHVH FLWLHV ,PSRUWDQWO\ ODUJHU FLWLHV ZLWK
DFFHVVWRVXSHULRUKXPDQFDSLWDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQV
DQG WUDQVSRUW OLQNV DWWUDFW PRUH IRUHLJQ GLUHFW
LQYHVWPHQW
+RZHYHUWKH DERYH WUHQG LV IDU IURP SUHFLVH
0DQ\RWKHUIDFWRUVSOD\DUROHLQWKHSHUFDSLWDSUR
GXFWLYLW\RIXUEDQDUHDV$VDQLOOXVWUDWLRQLQ&KLQD
JHRJUDSK\ŏWKDWLVWRVD\ZKHUHFLWLHVDUHORFDWHG
UHODWLYHWRWKHFRDVWOLQHDQGKHQFHDFFHVVWRVKLS
SLQJWHUPLQDOVIRUH[SRUWVŏDSSHDUVWRKDYHDPDMRU
LQIOXHQFHRQUHODWLYHSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\
&RDVWDOFLWLHVVXFKDV*XDQJ]KRXDQG6KHQ]KHQ
DOVREHQHILWWLQJIURPFORVHSUR[LPLW\WR+RQJ.RQJ
)LJXUH
3HUFDSLWD*'3IRU&KLQDWKHDYHUDJHRILWVODUJHVW
FLWLHVDQGHLJKWRIWKHODUJHUFLWLHVFXUUHQW86'WHUPV
6RXUFH&KLQD1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV&UHGLW6XLVVH
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'
B
<JDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQSSW

*'3<&$*5





5

 













)LJXUH
86JDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHOYHUVXVUHDO*'3JURZWK
&$*5DW\HDULQWHUYDOVVLQFH
6RXUFH86&HQVXV%XUHDX&UHGLW6XLVVH
)LJXUH
-DSDQŒVJDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHOYHUVXVUHDOSHUFDSLWD
*'3JURZWK&$*5DW\HDULQWHUYDOVVLQFH
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH816HFUHWDULDW2(&'

&UHGLW6XLVVH
<JDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQ

SHUFDSLWD*'3<&$*5








5

 








 



DVZHOODV6KDQJKDL;LDPHQ7LDQMLQ1LQJER'DOLDQ
DQG+DQJ]KRXDOODSSHDUWRGHOLYHUDERYHWUHQGSHU
FDSLWDRXWSXWUHODWLYHWRVLPLODUO\VL]HGFLWLHV

0HDQZKLOHLQODQGXUEDQDUHDVVXFKDV&KHQJGX
+DUELQ=KHQJ]KRX;LDQ &KDQJFKXQDQG6KLMLD
]KXDQJDSSHDUWRGHOLYHUEHORZWUHQGRXWSXWUHODWLYH
WRVLPLODUO\VL]HGFLWLHV
5DSLGXUEDQL]DWLRQLVXVXDOO\DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKYHU\VZLIWHFRQRPLFH[SDQVLRQ
7KH KLVWRULFDO SUHFHGHQW LV KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW :H
VKRZWKLVYLDWKHVWURQJUHODWLRQVKLSLQWKH86$DQG
-DSDQ EHWZHHQ WKH LQFUHPHQWDO SHUFHQWDJH SRLQW
JDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQDWHOHYHQVDP
SOH GDWHV DW WHQ DQG ILYH\HDU LQWHUYDOV UHVSHF
WLYHO\YHUVXVWKHLUUHVSHFWLYH*'3DQGSHUFDSLWD
*'3 UHDO FRPSRXQG DQQXDO JURZWK UDWHV RYHU
PDWFKLQJWLPHLQWHUYDOV:HILQGWKDWUDSLGXUEDQL]D
WLRQLVDFFRPSDQLHGE\UDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWK
7KHVDPHLVWUXHIRUDVDPSOHRIRXWRIRXU
FRXQWULHVVHOHFWHGDFURVVWKHVSHFWUXPRIFXU
UHQWXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHOVWRIRUPDFRPSOHWHSLFWXUH
)LUVW ZH H[DPLQHG LQFUHPHQWDO SHUFHQWDJH
SRLQWJDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQDWWHQ
VDPSOH GDWHV DW ILYH\HDU LQWHUYDOV YHUVXV WKHLU
UHVSHFWLYH ILYH\HDU UHDO *'3 FRPSRXQG DQQXDO
JURZWKUDWHVRYHUPDWFKLQJWLPHLQWHUYDOV
6HFRQGO\ZHUHSHDWHGWKLVH[HUFLVHEXWVXEVWL
WXWHGUHDO*'3JURZWKIRUWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHUHDOSHU
FDSLWD*'3FRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHV
,Q RXU YLHZ ERWK DQDO\VHV FRQILUP D VLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKH SDFH RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ DQG
WKH SDFH RI HFRQRPLF DQG SHU FDSLWD HFRQRPLF
H[SDQVLRQ DFURVV D UDQJH RI GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV

7\SLFDOO\DVWKHVKDUHRIDFRXQWU\ŒVXUEDQSRSXOD
WLRQULVHVE\ILYHSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWVWKHUHLVDQDVVR
FLDWHGJDLQLQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\RI
7KHUHLVDQXUEDQL]DWLRQVZHHWVSRW
DFFRPSDQLHGE\SHDNSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWK
6LJQLILFDQWO\ ZKHQ LQYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQWKHOHYHORIXUEDQL]DWLRQDQGUHDOSHUFDS
LWD*'3FRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHDWILYH\HDU
LQWHUYDOVIURPWKURXJKIRUDVHOHFWLRQ
RIWKHZRUOGŒVPRVWSRSXORXVFRXQWULHVDWGLIIHUHQW
VWDJHVRIXUEDQL]LQJZHILQGHYLGHQFHRIDVZHHW
VSRWGXULQJWKHSURJUHVVLRQRIXUEDQL]DWLRQ ZKHQ
UHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKSHDNV
7KHEHOOFXUYHWUHQGOLQHVXJJHVWVWKDWDVDFRXQ
WU\PRYHVWKURXJKDXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHOLWW\SL
FDOO\DFKLHYHVSHDNUHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKRI
FORVHWR0RUHEURDGO\)LJXUHDOVRVXJJHVWV
WKDWXUEDQL]DWLRQRIEHWZHHQDQGLVFRQ
VLVWHQWZLWKRYHUUHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWK
,PSRUWDQWO\ WKH SRSXODWLRQZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH
OHYHO RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ LQ HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV LV FXU
UHQWO\LHZLWKLQWKHVZHHWVSRWYHUVXV
IRUGHYHORSHGPDUNHWV$FFRUGLQJWR8QLWHG1DWLRQV
SURMHFWLRQVWKHXUEDQL]DWLRQUDWHLQHPHUJLQJPDU
NHWV ZLOO QRW H[FHHG  LH WKH OHYHO DW ZKLFK
DYHUDJH DVVRFLDWHG UHDO SHU FDSLWD *'3 JURZWK
ZRXOGIDOOEHORZXQWLODQRWKHU GHFDGH
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
)LJXUH
,QFUHPHQWDOJDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQUDWHYHUVXVUHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3FRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWK

UDWHDW\HDULQWHUYDOVIURPWRIRUFRXQWLHVDWGLIIHUHQWVWDJHVRIXUEDQL]LQJ
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH

,QFU\UJDLQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQ





5

 
 
UHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3\U&$*5

&KLQD
6RXWK.RUHD
,QGRQHVLD
-DSDQ 0H[LFR9LHWQDP
&DQDGD
.HQ\D
,WDO\ 7XUNH\
0DOD\VLD
+XQJDU\
3+272,672&.3+272&207%5$')25'
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B


 








/DWLQ$PHULFD
%DQJODGHVK
1LJHULD
0(1$
.HQ\D
3DNLVWDQ
3KLOLSSLQHV
9LHWQDP
3RODQG
3HUX
+XQJDU\
(DVWHUQ(XURSH
,QGLD
&KLQD
6XE6DKDUDQ
$IULFD
6RXWK$IULFD
1RQ-DSDQ$VLD
%UD]LO
0DOD\VLD
5XVVLD
&]HFK5HSXEOLF
7KDLODQG
6DXGL$UDELD

6RXWK.RUHD
$UJHQWLQD
,QGRQHVLD
&KLOH
(J\SW
&RORPELD
0H[LFR
7XUNH\
0RURFFR

XUEDQL]DWLRQEHWZHHQŏ
)LJXUH
(PHUJLQJPDUNHWVDQGUHJLRQVE\DVFHQGLQJOHYHORIXUEDQL]DWLRQ
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
IURPQRZ7KHHPHUJLQJPDUNHWUHJLRQVFORVHVWWR
WKHXUEDQL]DWLRQSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKVZHHWVSRW
DUH1RQ-DSDQ$VLDXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHORIDQG
6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD0(1$LVDW(DVW
HUQ (XURSH DW  DQG /DWLQ $PHULFD DW 
DOWKRXJK ZH QRWH WKDW LQ /DWLQ $PHULFD WKHUH
UHPDLQV SRWHQWLDO IRU D FRPELQDWLRQ RI FRUUHFWO\
DGPLQLVWHUHGSROLFLHVWRFDSWXUHWKHSHUFDSLWD*'3
JURZWKWKDWWKHUHJLRQIDLOHGWRDFKLHYHGXULQJLWV
UDSLGXUEDQL]DWLRQŏVHHH[SODQDWLRQEHORZ
$W D FRXQWU\ OHYHO WKH QLQH HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV
IURPRXUVWXG\JURXSRIZKLFK IDOO ZLWKLQ WKH
XUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHOUDQJHŏEDVHGRQ
GDWDDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQH[FHVVRIUHDOSHUFDSLWD
*'3JURZWKDUH,QGLDXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHORI
9LHWQDP7KDLODQG3DNLVWDQ

(J\SW  ,QGRQHVLD  &KLQD 
3KLOLSSLQHVDQG1LJHULD ,PSRUWDQWO\
WKHVH QLQH FRXQWULHV FROOHFWLYHO\ DFFRXQW IRU 
RUELOOLRQRXWRIELOOLRQRIWKHWRWDOSRSXOD
WLRQ RI WKH  HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV LQ WKLV VWXG\RU
RIWKHWRWDOJOREDOSRSXODWLRQ&RXQWULHV
DSSURDFKLQJ WKH  WR  XUEDQL]DWLRQ UDQJH
DUH.HQ\DDQG%DQJODGHVK
6WDWLVWLFDOFRQFOXVLRQV
+HQFH ZH UHDFK VL[ LPSRUWDQW FRQFOXVLRQV IURP
RXUDQDO\VLVRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUFDSLWD
HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG XUEDQL]DWLRQ  SHU FDSLWD
*'3LVJHQHUDOO\VXSHULRULQXUEDQWKDQUXUDOSRSX
ODWLRQVGHYHORSHGHFRQRPLHVKDYHFRPSDUDEOH
UXUDODQGXUEDQSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKUDWHV
HPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHVH[KLELWVXSHULRUXUEDQYHUVXV
UXUDOSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKUDWHVWKHUHLVHYL
GHQFHWKDWWKHODUJHUFLWLHVLQDFRXQWU\KDYHVXSH
ULRUSHUFDSLWD*'3UDSLGXUEDQL]DWLRQLVXVXDOO\
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKYHU\VZLIWHFRQRPLFH[SDQVLRQDQG
 PRVW LPSRUWDQWO\ ŏ WKHUH LV DQ XUEDQL]DWLRQ
VZHHWVSRWLQWKHŏUDQJHDFFRPSDQLHG
E\SHDNSHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWK
)LJXUH
/HYHORIXUEDQL]DWLRQYHUVXVUHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3FRPSRXQGDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHDW\HDULQWHUYDOVIURP
WRIRUHLJKWRIWKHPRVWSRSXORXVFRXQWULHVDWGLIIHUHQWVWDJHVRIXUEDQL]LQJ
6RXUFH3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH

UHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3\U&$*5






5

 
    
8UEDQL]DWLRQ

&KLQD %UD]LO ,QGLD
%DQJODGHVK 6RXWK.RUHD86$ ,QGRQHVLD -DSDQ 0H[LFR9LHWQDP
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
8VLQJGDWDDFURVVRXUVDPSOHRI*DQG
HPHUJLQJPDUNHWFRXQWULHVZHRQFHDJDLQILQGD
VWURQJ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH XUEDQL]DWLRQ UDWH
DQGWKHOHYHORI333DGMXVWHG*'3SHUFDSLWD
,PSRUWDQWO\ KRZHYHU 6RXWK $PHULFDQ QDWLRQV
DSSHDUDVDQRXWOLHU&ROOHFWLYHO\WKH\DSSHDUWREH
GHOLYHULQJVLJQLILFDQWO\EHORZWKHLUSRWHQWLDOSHUFDSLWD
*'3JLYHQWKHLUOHYHORIXUEDQL]DWLRQLQFRPSDULVRQ
WRWKHRWKHUFRXQWULHVLQWKHVDPSOH7KHUHDSSHDUV
WR EH D FOHDU SDWWHUQ JLYHQ WKDW $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO
&KLOH&RORPELDDQG3HUXWKHSULQFLSDOILYHHFRQR
PLHVLQ6RXWK$PHULFDDOODSSHDUWRKDYHDSSUR[L
PDWHO\RQO\KDOIWKHSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\W\SL
FDOO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHLUXUEDQL]DWLRQOHYHOJLYHQWKH
:K\KDYHVRPHUHJLRQVXUEDQL]HG
OHVVVXFFHVVIXOO\WKDQRWKHUV"
JOREDOWUHQG$V)LJXUHVKRZVWKHPDMRUHFRQR

PLHVRI6RXWK$PHULFDKDYHLQKLVWRULFDOWHUPVWKXV
IDUXUEDQL]HGZLWKDVRPHZKDWGLVDSSRLQWLQJDVVRFL
DWHGJDLQLQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\
+HQFHZHDVN
:K\KDVXUEDQL]DWLRQLQ6RXWK$PHULFDDQG$IULFDQ
FRXQWULHVKLWKHUWREHHQFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHH[SDQ
VLRQRI IDYHODV DQG VKDQWLHVZKLFK JRYHUQPHQWV
KDYHRQO\ODWWHUO\EHJXQWRWDFNOH"
:K\DUHWKHUHFOHDUO\H[FHSWLRQVWRWKHFRQFOX
VLRQVUHDFKHGRQWKHSUHYLRXVSDJH"
$FOXHOLHVZLWKWKHPRVWGLVSURSRUWLRQDWHGLVWUL
EXWLRQ RI LQFRPH IRU DQ\ SDUWLFXODU JHRJUDSKLFDO
)LJXUH
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQYHUVXV*'3SHUFDSLWD333
6RXUFH:RUOG%DQN'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
*'3SHUFDSLWD333
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQ










5

 

8.
86$
6DXGL$UDELD
&]HFK5HSXEOLF
+XQJDU\
(J\SW
7KDLODQG
9LHWQDP
0RURFFR
,QGRQHVLD
3DNLVWDQ
,QGLD
1LJHULD
.HQ\D
3RODQG
3HUX
6RXWK$IULFD
%UD]LO
5XVVLD
0H[LFR
&DQDGD
&RORPELD
%DQJODGHVK
&KLQD
3KLOLSSLQHV
0DOD\VLD
6RXWK$PHULFD
*
$UJHQWLQD
7XUNH\

&KLOH
        

-DSDQ
,WDO\
)UDQFH
*HUPDQ\
6RXWK.RUHD
3+272,672&.3+272&20(;&(175,&B
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
JURXS RI FRXQWULHV LQ RXU VDPSOH RI  * DQG
HPHUJLQJPDUNHWQDWLRQVDVPHDVXUHGE\WKH*,1,
LQGH[ZKHUHDQLQGH[OHYHORIUHSUHVHQWVSHUIHFW
HTXDOLW\DQGLPSOLHVSHUIHFWLQHTXDOLW\
*RYHUQPHQWSROLF\WRLPSURYHLQFRPHGLVWULEX
WLRQDQGVRFLDOPRELOLW\DSSHDUVWREHDVHVVHQWLDO
DQ LQJUHGLHQW WR HQVXUH VXFFHVVIXO SDWWHUQV RI
XUEDQL]DWLRQ DQG LWV DVVRFLDWHG LPSURYHPHQWVLQ
OLYLQJVWDQGDUGVDVVXIILFLHQWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVW
PHQWDQGFLW\SODQQLQJ
0RUHVSHFLILFDOO\IRU%UD]LODQG6RXWK$PHULFD
PRUH EURDGO\ WKH IROORZLQJ ZHUH DOVR LPSRUWDQW
FRQWULEXWLQJ IDFWRUV OHDGLQJ WR DQ XQGHUVKRRW LQ
SRWHQWLDOSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\GXULQJXUEDQ
L]DWLRQ
8QOLNH &KLQDŒV +XNRX V\VWHP D FRXQWU\ZLGH
KRXVHKROGUHVLGHQF\SHUPLWUHJLVWUDWLRQVFKHPH
WKHUHZDVQRUHVWULFWLRQRQPLJUDWLRQLQWRFLWLHV
/DWLQ$PHULFDXUEDQL]HGUDSLGO\IURPDUDWHRI
WRGXULQJWKHVWRPLGV

ZKHQ DJULFRPPRGLW\ SULFHV ZHUH GHSUHVVHG
DQG WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZDV SXVKHG UDWKHU WKDQ
SXOOHGLQWRFLWLHVE\ODFNRIRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQUXUDO
FRPPXQLWLHVDVFURSSULFHVZHUHVRORZ
%UD]LODQGRWKHU/DWLQ$PHULFDQFRXQWULHVRSHU
DWHG D ODQGDJULFXOWXUDO ROLJRSRO\ ZKLFK VXS
SUHVVHGODQGRZQHUVKLSDQGIRUFHGSRSXODWLRQV
LQWRFLWLHVZKLFKZHUHLOOSUHSDUHGIRUWKHPLJUD
WLRQLQWHUPVRIWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHFHVVDU\WR
VXSSRUWDUDSLGO\ULVLQJSRSXODWLRQDQGGLG QRW
FDWHUIRUVXIILFLHQWHPSOR\PHQWJURZWK
8UEDQL]DWLRQWRRNSODFHLQ%UD]LOSULPDULO\GXULQJ
WKUHH GHFDGHV RI HFRQRPLF PLVPDQDJHPHQW
ZLWKK\SHULQIODWLRQ
'HPRFUDFLHV ZLWK VRXQG VRFLDO PRELOLW\ SUR
JUDPV ZHUH QRW LQ SODFH GXULQJ WKH WLPHWKDW
/DWLQ $PHULFD ZDV XUEDQL]LQJ DW WKH VZLIWHVW
SDFH$OWKRXJKZHQRWHLQWKH FDVH RI&KLQD
WKH DELOLW\ WR FRQGXFW FHQWUDO SODQQLQJ ZLWKRXW
GHPRFUDF\KDVVHFXUHGDPRUHVXVWDLQDEOHUDWH
RIXUEDQL]DWLRQ
:H LGHQWLI\ VL[ RI WKH ODUJHVW HPHUJLQJ PDUNHWV
ZKLFK XUEDQL]HG GXULQJ WZR FRQWUDVWLQJ HQYLURQ
PHQWVRILQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQ)LUVWO\.RUHD0DOD\
VLDDQG7XUNH\ZKLFKXUEDQL]HGZKLOHIRUWKHPRVW
SDUW WKHLU *,1, FRHIILFLHQWV GHFOLQHG LPSURYLQJ
HTXDOLW\RILQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGVHFRQGO\%UD]LO
0H[LFRDQG6RXWK$IULFDZKLFKXUEDQL]HGZKLOHIRU
WKHPRVWSDUWWKHLU*,1,FRHIILFLHQWVURVHGHWHULR
UDWLQJHTXDOLW\RILQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQ

5HEDVLQJWKH333DGMXVWHGSHUFDSLWD*'3WR
WKHVDPHOHYHOIRUDOOVL[FRXQWULHVLQVKRZV
WKHVWULNLQJGLIIHUHQFHLQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLFDFWLY
LW\EHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSV2YHU\HDUV%UD]LO
KDVJURZQWLPHV0H[LFRWLPHVDQG6RXWK
$IULFDWLPHV
0HDQZKLOHIRUWKRVHFRXQWULHVZKHUHWKHHTXDO
LW\RILQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQKDVLPSURYHGWKHJURZWK
LQ SHU FDSLWD *'3 KDV EHHQ QRWLFHDEO\ KLJKHU
.RUHDWLPHV0DOD\VLDWLPHVDQG7XU
NH\WLPHV
(QFRXUDJLQJO\LQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQZLWKLQ WKH WZR
PDMRU/DWLQ$PHULFDQFRXQWULHVKDVEHJXQWRVWUXF
WXUDOO\LPSURYHŏIRU%UD]LOWKLVSURFHVVEHJDQRQFH
WKH/XODDGPLQLVWUDWLRQWRRNSRZHULQZLWK
VRFLDOSURJUDPVIHDWXULQJSURPLQHQWO\LQKLVSUHVL
GHQWLDODJHQGD
,Q FRQWUDVW H[FOXGLQJ WKH ODVW WZR \HDUV IRU
&KLQD WKH PRPHQWXP LQ LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU
&KLQDDQG,QGLDIRUPXFKRIWKHSDVWWZRGHFDGHV
KDVEHHQGHWHULRUDWLQJ7KLVLVDZRUU\LQJGHYHORS
PHQW LQ RXU YLHZ DQG QHHGV XUJHQW DGGUHVVLQJ
JLYHQWKHSUHFHGHQWGHVFULEHGDERYHRIXUEDQL]DWLRQ
WDNLQJSODFHGXULQJZRUVHQLQJLQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\
7KLVEHJVWKHFULWLFDOTXHVWLRQ+RZVXFFHVV
IXOO\ZLOO&KLQDDQG,QGLDXUEDQL]H"
:LOOWKH\IROORZWKHVRPHZKDWGLVDSSRLQWLQJSUHF
HGHQWRI/DWLQ$PHULFDRUIROORZWKHOHDGRI0DOD\
VLD7XUNH\DQG6RXWK.RUHDZLWKWKHODWWHUJURXSŒV
IDUJUHDWHUDVVRFLDWHGJDLQVLQSHUFDSLWDHFRQRPLF

DFWLYLW\ZKLOVWXUEDQL]LQJ"
7KHUHDUHILYHLGHQWLILDEOHLPSRUWDQWFKDOOHQJHV
WKDW FHQWUDO DQG ORFDO JRYHUQPHQWV RI UDSLGO\
XUEDQL]LQJFRXQWULHVPXVWDGGUHVVWRHQVXUHWKDW
WKHDSSURSULDWHOHYHORIDVVRFLDWHGJURZWKSRWHQ
WLDO LV XQORFNHG DV WKHLU SRSXODWLRQV PLJUDWH
WRZDUGVFLWLHV
, ,QYHVWPHQW7KHPRVWVXFFHVVIXOJOREDOFLWLHV
KDYHDQWLFLSDWHGWKHVLJQLILFDQWQHFHVVDU\SXEOLF
DQGSULYDWHIXQGLQJJURZWKUHTXLUHGUDWKHUWKDQ
UHVSRQGLQJWRSRSXODWLRQJURZWKDQGEHLQJFRQ
VWDQWO\EHKLQGWKHFXUYH$FFHVVWRGHHSFDSLWDO
PDUNHWV LV FOHDUO\ HVVHQWLDO IRU ILQDQFLQJ DQG
HQFRXUDJLQJSULYDWHLQYHVWPHQWDQGHQWHUSULVH
,, 8UEDQ SODQQLQJ
(IILFLHQWXUEDQSODQQLQJZLWK
HIIHFWLYHFKRLFHVIRU]RQLQJODQGXVHZLWKWKHSUR
YLVLRQRIDIIRUGDEOHKRXVLQJZLWKRXWZKLFKUDSLGO\
JURZLQJFLWLHVGHYHORSVOXPDUHDV7KLVLVHVVHQ
WLDOZKHQXUEDQL]DWLRQLVSDUWLFXODUO\UDSLGDVLQ
WKHFDVHRI,QGLDDQG&KLQD(TXDOO\WKHHQIRUFH
PHQW RI WKH ZURQJ W\SH RI UHJXODWLRQ VXFK DV
EXLOGLQJKHLJKWUHVWULFWLRQVLQ0XPEDL,QGLDFDQ
SURYLGHDKLQGUDQFHUDWKHUWKDQDERRQ
,,,,QIUDVWUXFWXUH GHYHORSPHQW 3URYLVLRQ RI
DGHTXDWH SLSHG IUHVK ZDWHU VHZHUDJH DQG
GUDLQDJHHOHFWULFLW\ DQG JDV XWLOLWLHV WHOHFRP
PXQLFDWLRQVDQGEURDGEDQGKLJKZD\VUDLOZD\V
PDVV WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ OLQNV DQG DLUSRUWV SXEOLF
VHUYLFHVHGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKFDUH

,90DQDJHPHQW
(IIHFWLYHH[HFXWLRQRIWRZQSODQ
QLQJSURYLVLRQRIVRFLDOVHUYLFHVDQGFULPHSUH
YHQWLRQLVHVVHQWLDOWRGHWHUPLQHDFLW\ŒVVXFFHVV
$FFRXQWDEOHWUDQVSDUHQWJRYHUQDQFHDWDUHJLRQDO
DQGORFDOFLW\OHYHOLVSUHIHUDEOHWRWKDWE\FHQ
WUDOL]HGJRYHUQPHQWSDUWLFXODUO\DFKDOOHQJHIRU
,QGLD3UHIHUDEO\DUHODWLYHO\KLJKRUDWDPLQL
PXPULVLQJVFRUHRQWKH7UDQVSDUHQF\,QWHUQD
WLRQDO &RUUXSWLRQ 3HUFHSWLRQV ,QGH[ LQGLFDWLQJ
VRPHSURJUHVVLQWKHVWUXJJOHDJDLQVWFRUUXSWLRQ
*RRGJRYHUQDQFHLVHVVHQWLDOIRUDWWUDFWLQJWKH
KXPDQFDSLWDODQGLQYHVWPHQWERWKGRPHVWLFDQG
IRUHLJQUHTXLUHGIRUDFLW\WRSURVSHU
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B
9 6RFLDOSURJUDPV(VVHQWLDOIRUWKHUHGLVWULEX
WLRQRILQFRPHDFURVVHPHUJLQJPDUNHWSRSXOD
WLRQVWRDYRLGWKHIDLOXUHRIXUEDQGLVLQWHJUDWLRQ
EHWZHHQDIIOXHQWDUHDVDQGVOXPV
7KXVIDUWKHSDWWHUQLQ&KLQDKDVEHHQHQFRXUDJLQJ
ŏDOWKRXJK&KLQDKDVDFOHDUVWUXFWXUDODGPLQLVWUD
WLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ FRQWUROOLQJ WKH SURJUHVVLRQ RI
XUEDQPLJUDWLRQUHODWLYHWR,QGLDWKHVWULFWO\PRQL
WRUHG +XNRX V\VWHP RI UHVLGHQWLDO SHUPLWV 7KLV
UHVWULFWLRQ RQ UDSLG PLJUDWLRQ WRZDUGV FLWLHV IURP
&KLQDŒVYDVWUXUDOSRSXODWLRQVKDVHQVXUHGWKDWWKH
IRUPDWLRQRIYDVWVOXPDUHDVZKLFKKDVFKDUDFWHU
L]HGWKHJURZWKRI,QGLDQFLWLHVKDVQRWPDWHULDOL]HG
WRVXFKDQH[WHQWLQ&KLQD
8UEDQL]DWLRQ UHPDLQV D NH\ IRFXV RI &KLQHVH

SROLF\/L.HTLDQJŏZLGHO\DVVXPHGWREHWKHVXF
FHVVRU WR SUHPLHU :HQ -LDEDR LQ  ŏ KDV
HPSKDVL]HGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDFFHOHUDWLQJXUEDQ
L]DWLRQDVSDUWRI&KLQDŒVHFRQRPLFUHVWUXFWXULQJLQ
SXEOLF SROLF\ DGGUHVVHV RYHU WKH SDVW IHZ \HDUV
8UEDQL]DWLRQFRXSOHGZLWKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIVRFLDO
ZHOIDUHSURJUDPVLQ&KLQDLVSDUWRIWKHHFRQRPLF
VROXWLRQWRUHEDODQFLQJWKH&KLQHVHHFRQRP\DZD\
IURPSXEOLFLQYHVWPHQWVSHQGLQJDQGH[SRUWEXVL
QHVVWRZDUGVSULYDWHFRQVXPSWLRQ
,PSRUWDQWO\ WKH IRXUWK JHQHUDWLRQ RI &KLQHVH
OHDGHUVKLSWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRI3UHVLGHQW+X-LQ
WDRDQG3UHPLHU:HQ-LDEDRKDVPDGHWKHLPSOH
PHQWDWLRQ RI WKHLU Ŕ6FLHQWLILF 'HYHORSPHQW &RQ
FHSWŕ WKH NH\ SROLWLFDO LGHRORJ\ RI WKHLU WHQXUH
(VVHQWLDOO\WKLVWUDQVODWHVDVLPSURYLQJVRFLDOKDU
PRQ\ UHGXFLQJ LQFRPH LQHTXDOLW\ EHWZHHQ WKH
XUEDQDQGUXUDOSRSXODWLRQE\H[WHQGLQJVRFLDOSUR
JUDPVZLWKWKHSURYLVLRQRIDFFHVVWRHGXFDWLRQ
KHDOWKFDUHDQGLQWURGXFLQJDVRFLDOZHOIDUHV\VWHP
LQLWLDOO\SHQVLRQVDQGPHGLFDOLQVXUDQFHZLWKVRPH
OLPLWHG XQHPSOR\PHQW EHQHILWV FDVK JUDQWV DQG
VXEVLGLHVRQKRXVHKROGDSSOLDQFHVWREHQHILWWKRVH
UXUDOSRSXODWLRQVOHIWEHKLQGE\WKHUDSLGHFRQRPLF
DGYDQFHRI&KLQDŒVFLWLHV
*LYHQWKHWUDFNUHFRUGWRGDWHZHEHOLHYHWKDW
WKH GHOLYHU\ RI LQYHVWPHQW XUEDQ SODQQLQJ LQIUD
VWUXFWXUH GHYHORSPHQW PDQDJHPHQW DQG VRFLDO
SURJUDPVLQ&KLQDZLOOFRQWLQXHWRHQVXUHWKHFRXQ
WU\DFKLHYHVWKHOHYHORIJURZWKLQHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\

DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDVXFFHVVIXOUDSLGXUEDQL]DWLRQRI
WKHSRSXODWLRQ
)RU,QGLDKRZHYHUZHKDYHVRPHGHHSUHVHUYD
WLRQV8QGHULQYHVWPHQWLQFLWLHVLVDWFULWLFDOOHYHOV
D0F.LQVH\SDSHUHVWLPDWHVWKDWLWLVFXUUHQWO\MXVW
RQHHLJKWKRIZKDW LV QHFHVVDU\7KHVDPH$SULO
 0F.LQVH\ *OREDO ,QVWLWXWH UHSRUW ŏ ,QGLDŒV
XUEDQDZDNHQLQJ%XLOGLQJLQFOXVLYHFLWLHVVXVWDLQ
LQJHFRQRPLFJURZWKŏQRWHVWKDWŔWRGD\ŒV SROLF\
YDFXXPULVNVZRUVHQLQJXUEDQGHFD\DQGJULGORFN
DGHFOLQLQJTXDOLW\RIOLIHIRUFLWL]HQVDQGUHOXFWDQFH
DPRQJ LQYHVWRUV WR FRPPLW UHVRXUFHV WR ,QGLDŒV
XUEDQFHQWUHVŕ
,WLVQRWWRRODWHIRU,QGLDWRFUHDWHDQHFRQRPLF
VXFFHVV IURP LWV SURJUHVVLRQ WR DQ XUEDQL]HG
QDWLRQ LI WKH JRYHUQPHQW EHJLQV LPPHGLDWHO\ WR
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQ


8UEDQL]LQJZLWKLQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\




*,1,LQGH[
8
U
E
D
Q

L
]
L
Q
J

Z
L
W
K

L
Q
F
R
P
H

H
T
X
D
O
L
W
\
   

&KLQD
%UD]LO

,QGLD
.RUHD
6RXWK$IULFD
7XUNH\
0DOD\VLD
0H[LFR
%UD]LO
0H[LFR
6RXWK$IULFD
&KLQD
,QGLD
0DOD\VLD
7XUNH\
.RUHD
)LJXUH
3URJUHVVLRQRIXUEDQL]DWLRQDQG*,1,LQGH[IRUWKHODUJHU
HPHUJLQJPDUNHWHFRQRPLHVIURPWR
6RXUFH:RUOG%DQN'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV3RSXODWLRQ'LYLVLRQRI'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(FRQRPLF
DQG6RFLDO$IIDLUVRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV6HFUHWDULDW&UHGLW6XLVVH
)LJXUH
*'3SHUFDSLWDIRUWKHODUJHUHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHV
333FXUUHQWLQWHUQDWLRQDO86'UHEDVHGWRLQ
6RXUFH:RUOG%DQN'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV&UHGLW6XLVVH
              







%UD]LO
6RXWK.RUHD
6RXWK$IULFD
0DOD\VLD
0H[LFR

7XUNH\
23325781,7,(6,1$185%$1,=,1*:25/'B

×