Democracy and Delivery doc

Edited by Udesh Pillay,
Richard Tomlinson &
Jacques du Toit
Democracy and Delivery
Urban Policy in South Africa
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Published by HSRC Press
Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa
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© 2006 Human Sciences Research Council
First published 2006
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Contents
List of tables and figures v
Preface vi
List of changes to place names and/or boundaries ix
Abbreviations and acronyms x
1 Introduction 1
Udesh Pillay, Richard Tomlinson and Jacques du Toit
Urban and urbanisation
2 Urbanisation and the future urban agenda in South Africa 22
Doreen Atkinson and Lochner Marais
3 Urban spatial policy 50
Alison Todes
One city, one tax base
4 Local government boundary reorganisation 76
Robert Cameron
5 Reflections on the design of a post-apartheid system of (urban)
local government 107
Mirjam van Donk and Edgar Pieterse
6 Local government in South Africa’s larger cities 135
Alan Mabin
7 The development of policy on the financing of municipalities 157

Philip van Ryneveld
Developmental local government
8 Integrated development plans and Third Way politics 186
Philip Harrison
9 The evolution of local economic development in South Africa 208
Etienne Nel and Lynelle John
10 Tourism policy, local economic development and South African cities 230
Christian M Rogerson
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Housing and services delivery programmes
11 Reaching the poor? An analysis of the influences on the evolution of South
Africa’s housing programme 252
Sarah Charlton and Caroline Kihato
12 Free basic services: The evolution and impact of free basic water policy in
South Africa 283
Tim Mosdell
13 Conclusion 302
Udesh Pillay and Richard Tomlinson
Contributors 320
Index 323
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v
List of tables and figures
Tables
Table 1.1 Projected population, number of HIV positive, AIDS sick and cumu-
lative AIDS deaths for 1990–2015, ASSA 2002 (default scenario) 12
Table 1.2 Racial incidence of urban employment and unemployment, 2004 13
Table 4.1 Types and numbers of municipalities 81
Table 4.2 Councillor breakdown 92
Table 7.1 Budgeted municipal operating revenue (all municipalities), 2003/04 159

Table 7.2 Conditional and unconditional transfers from national to local
government (R millions) 161
Table 12.1 Water Services Authorities providing FBW, by type 294
Table 12.2 Water Services Authorities providing FBW, by province 294
Figures
Figure 1.1 Cities comprising the SACN and provincial capitals 4
Figure 1.2 Population and household numbers of SACN and selected secondary
cities, 2001 5
Figure 1.3 Population and household growth rates of SACN cities, 1996–2001 6
Figure 1.4 Municipal population growth between 1996 and 2001 7
Figure 1.5 Average household size of SACN and selected secondary cities, 2001 8
Figure 1.6 Household growth between 1996 and 2001 10
Figure 1.7 The percentage of households without formal shelter and on-site
water in SACN cities, 2001 11
Figure 12.1 Illustration of a rising block tariff structure 292
Figure 12.2 Proportion of total and poor population served by FBW,
by province 295
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vi
Preface
This book is the first publication of an intended series of urban policy research
publications of the Urban, Rural and Economic Development Research Programme
of the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), which is a national programme
of policy-relevant urban research.
The book’s purpose is to document and assess the policy formulation processes
that informed South Africa’s foremost urban policies since 1994. It provides
an understanding of the origins and goals of the policies; the role of research,
advice from international development agencies, and political and economic
circumstances and agendas during the policy formulation process; a record of policy
implementation; a critical assessment of the policies; and insight into how present

polices are being adapted and future policies formulated.
It is anticipated that the book will serve as a record of the first ten years of urban policy
formulation processes in democratic South Africa and as a basis for comparative
urban and city-based research among scholars worldwide. It is also hoped that the
book will inform present and future urban and other policy processes in South
Africa and elsewhere. The intended readership of the book includes an informed
public, academics and students, policy-makers and government officials.
The conceptualisation of the publication was taken forward with the assistance of a
reference group, beginning with a workshop in January 2004. Members of the reference
group additionally assisted the editors to review proposals from prospective contributors
and, in a number of instances, commented on draft versions of chapters.
At the time of the workshop the members of the reference group and their
institutional bases were:
Dr Doreen Atkinson, Chief Research Specialist in the Democracy and Governance
Research Programme of the HSRC.
Professor Robert Beauregard, Milano Graduate School of Management and
Urban Policy at the New School University, New York.
Andrew Boraine, Chairperson of the South African Cities Network.
Mike de Klerk, Executive Director of the Integrated Rural and Regional Research
Programme at the HSRC.
Caroline Kihato, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Town and Regional
Planning at the University of the Witwatersrand.
Dr Xolela Mangcu, Director of the Steve Biko Foundation.
Professor Susan Parnell, Department of Geography at the University of
Cape Town.
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vii
Dr Jennifer Robinson, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Geography at
The Open University, United Kingdom.
The composition of the reference group, however, changed over time. One reason

was that two members of the reference group chose to submit proposals and
withdrew from the reference group in order to avoid a conflict of interest situation.
Caroline Kihato and Doreen Atkinson are now contributors to the book.
The determination of the specific urban policies to be investigated in the book
started with advertising a call for proposals in the media, and by the use of widely
distributed email. The editors sifted through the proposals and selected some for
distribution to the reference group. With the recommendations of the reference
group in mind, the editors selected a limited number of proposals and the
potential contributors were asked to prepare detailed proposal submissions for a
second round of assessment. This process led to the identification of the specific
policies that would be investigated and the authors that would be commissioned to
write these up. In two cases where there were no satisfactory proposals for policy
investigation that the editors considered to be essential, the editors solicited pieces
from particular individuals.
Each proposal was assessed on the basis of three criteria:
• Relevance of the policy as it pertains to urban development;
• Academic rigour; and
• Different perspectives that could be brought to bear in relation to South Africa’s
evolving urban environment, and the scholars that could articulate this.
The themes included in the book emerged from the proposals but, in retrospect,
are self-evident. First, there are chapters that describe how government set out to
restructure and build democratic local governments and to enhance their ability
to deliver services and to promote socio-economic development. Second, there are
chapters that assess how government has attempted to give effect to ‘developmental’
local government through integrated development planning and local economic
development. Third, there are chapters that describe the policies for the delivery of
housing and services.
Two policies that might be said to be ‘missing’ are also included in the book. One
provides an investigation of urban spatial policy and the failure by government to
ameliorate the disadvantages associated with the ‘apartheid city’. Another concerns

the absence of an urbanisation policy that is intended to reverse the consequences of
past restrictions on the urbanisation of Africans and to guide the present unintended
urbanisation consequences of many government policies.
Unfortunately no proposals were received for urban transport and the recalcitrant
authors of a chapter on urban renewal failed to deliver.
A few acknowledgements need to be made. During the later stages of the preparation
of the book, the HSRC and the Development Bank of Southern Africa drafted a
PREFACE
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DEMOCRACY AND DELIVERY: URBAN POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA
viii
memorandum of understanding to disseminate the findings of the publication to a
select audience of urban practitioners and municipal officials in order to practically
impact on the field of urban development. This agreement included funding from
the Development Bank of Southern Africa, which is highly appreciated.
During the course of drafting the chapters, some members of the reference group
reviewed and commented on draft versions of some chapters. In this respect, we
have, in particular, to thank Robert Beauregard, Susan Parnell and Alison Todes for
their many contributions.
Adlai Davids from the HSRC Knowledge Systems has also to be thanked for his work
on the maps.
Finally, we thank our contributors for what are no doubt important contributions to
the field of urban policy, and for their patience and forbearance with many editorial
demands. Indeed, one chapter was taken through seven iterations.
Three explanations are required for readers. The first is that the names of many
cities and towns referred to in this book changed between 1994 and 2004. A list of
old and new names is therefore included on the following page.
The second is that reference to local government changed to municipalities after the
1998 Local Government White Paper. Contributors to the book generally use both
references, depending on the timing and context.

The third explanation is intended for foreign readers. South Africans are excessively
given to abbreviations: RDP, IDP, DBSA, LED and so on. Whereas South Africans
sometimes become so used to the abbreviations that they forget the full name
referred to by the abbreviation, a foreigner only becomes operational in South
Africa after he or she learns the abbreviations. The editors of the book have removed
abbreviations when they occur only a few times, but in other instances please
consult the list of abbreviations and acronyms for explanations.
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ix
List of changes to place names
and/or boundaries
Old name New name
Cities
Bloemfontein Mangaung Municipality
Durban eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality
East London Buffalo City Municipality
East Rand Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality
Pietermaritzburg Msunduzi Municipality
Port Elizabeth Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality
Pretoria Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality
Areas
Vaal and Vaal Triangle Divided between Emfuleni Municipality and Midvaal
Municipality in Gauteng province
Witwatersrand Portions in City of Johannesburg Metropolitan
Municipality, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality and
municipalities in Westrand District Municipality
Secondary cities and towns
Harrismith Maluti a Phofung Municipality
Kimberley Sol Plaatje Municipality
Kuruman Ga-Segonyana Municipality

Mothibistad Ga-Segonyana Municipality
Nelspruit Mbombela Municipality
Paarl Drakenstein Municipality
Pietersburg Polokwane Municipality
Port Alfred Ndlambe Municipality
Richards Bay uMhlathuze Municipality
Former ‘homelands’
Ciskei Now included within the Eastern Cape province
Qwa-Qwa Now included within the Free State province
Transkei Now included within the Eastern Cape province
Gazankulu Now included within the Limpopo province
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x
Abbreviations and acronyms
ANC African National Congress
CBD central business district
CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
DFA Development Facilitation Act
DLA Department of Land Affairs
DoH Department of Housing
DPLG Department of Provincial and Local Government
FFC Financial and Fiscal Commission
GEAR Growth, Employment and Redistribution programme
GTZ Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (Agency for Technical
Co-operation)
HSRC Human Sciences Research Council
IDP Integrated Development Plan
LED Local Economic Development
LGNF Local Government Negotiating Forum
LGTA Local Government Transition Act

MIIF Municipal Infrastructure Investment Framework
NGO Non-governmental organisation
NHF National Housing Forum
NP National Party
NSDP National Spatial Development Perspective
RDP Reconstruction and Development Programme
SACN South African Cities Network
SALGA South African Local Government Association
Sanco South African National Civic Organisation
UDF Urban Development Framework
UDS Urban Development Strategy
UN United Nations

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1
Introduction
Udesh Pillay, Richard Tomlinson and Jacques du Toit
A number of books about urban South Africa have been published since the
democratic elections in 1994. Their central themes have concerned housing
backlogs, policy and delivery, the apartheid city and how the delivery of housing is
contributing to urban fragmentation, and governance issues.
1
There have also been
a large number of publications on cities, especially on Johannesburg.
2
These books
have generally been the product of geographers and planners and one finds in their
titles ‘fragmentation’, ‘divided’, ‘shaping’, ‘unsustainable’ and ‘crisis’. ‘Post-apartheid’,
of course, rings most loudly, with a crescendo of journal articles looking at urban
South Africa not in terms of its preferred future but in terms of its despised past.

Government has presented issues a bit differently. The conception of the future was
defined in the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) by meeting basic
human needs, in the 1996 Constitution through giving effect to social rights, and in the
1998 White Paper on Local Government as a ‘historic opportunity to transform local
government’ (RSA 1998: v). It is this sense of opportunity and, indeed, enthusiasm and
optimism that underlay the preparation of urban policies in the early years, starting
with local government negotiations and in 1992 with the National Housing Forum. The
policies were prepared in great haste and driven by political agendas for the future.
The urban policies were at the same time simplistic and complex. They were
simplistic in setting targets for delivery whose realisation required ignoring other
development criteria; a million houses in five years being the notorious example of
a numerical goal overriding the need to build sustainable settlements. They were
complex in the transformation of local government and the need to align boundary
demarcation, institutional restructuring, financial and fiscal direction and resources,
all with a view to building democratic and developmental institutions.
A little has been written about the process of policy formulation and the research and
other influences that underlay it, with the focus shifting from housing and urban form
to governance and service delivery.
3
There has not been a comprehensive assessment
of the urban policies formulated during the first ten years of democracy, the process
of formulating the policies and the influences on them.
The process of urban policy formulation covered in this book begins with the 1976
Soweto uprising, pays attention to the intense struggles in the townships during the
1980s, and then proceeds to a close examination of prominent urban policies and
policy formulation and implementation during the 1990s and on to 2004. In 2004
South Africa celebrated ten years of democracy.
1
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DEMOCRACY AND DELIVERY: URBAN POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA

2
There have been three components to urban policy in South Africa up to 2004. Policies
to which close attention has been paid include those that gave effect to the ‘One city, one
tax base’ slogan that emerged during the township struggles. These policies included
re-demarcating municipalities to create integrated and democratic local governments,
the comprehensive restructuring of the local government system, and the design of
municipal financial systems that support service delivery to the poor. Another set of
policies revolves around the creation of ‘developmental local governments’ and includes
integrated development planning and local economic development. A last set of policies
refers to the mass delivery of free housing and services within municipalities.
In effect, the national, provincial (in the case of housing) and municipal and sectoral
policies included in this book have sought to enable local government to undertake
delivery, plan for delivery and implement delivery in consolidating democracy. Thus,
government’s urban policy has focused on meeting the commitment in the RDP
to provide for the basic needs of all South Africans, and building democratic local
government institutions and enhancing their ability to promote socio-economic
development in urban areas.
A further section of the book is devoted to a chapter on urban spatial policy and
another on the absence of an urbanisation policy and present policies that are having
unintended consequences for urbanisation. These two chapters provide both a
contextual introduction to the book and point to the absence of policies that effectively
counter a century of efforts to prevent the urbanisation of the African population.
Most of the urban policies have been debated and evaluated, but there has not been
an attempt to document the history of the policy formulation processes in relation
to experience with the policies and subsequent revisions to the policies. This book
serves this purpose; with the intention also being to evaluate the influence of research,
advice from international development agencies and comparative experience, and
political and economic pressures during the policy formulation processes. The focus
is essentially on the sphere of government where policy is ‘passed’ (national), and
the sphere of government most responsible for implementation (municipal).

Backdrop
At the time of the 1994 democratic elections, South African cities were characterised by
dire housing and services backlogs, inequalities in municipal expenditure, the spatial
anomalies associated with the ‘apartheid city’, profound struggles against apartheid local
government structures, high unemployment and many poverty-stricken households.
The African National Congress’ (ANC) commitment to addressing these issues can
be traced to the 1994 RDP, which committed government to meeting the basic needs
of all South Africans. Housing and services such as water and sanitation, land, jobs
and others were counted as basic needs. The RDP also included the commitment to
the restructuring of local government with a view to meeting these needs. The ANC
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INTRODUCTION
3
recognised the key role of local government in delivering services and promoting
economic development and called for the re-demarcation of local governments with
a view to urban integration and democracy, the creation of a single tax base, and the
cross-subsidisation of municipal expenditure. Local governments were to become
central to overcoming the backlogs.
However, the ANC confronted a fundamental difficulty. At the time it was unknown
how many households suffered from services backlogs; what household incomes
were and what services levels they might afford; whether local governments had the
capacity to deliver services, as well as knowledge of alternative means of ensuring
service delivery such as public–private partnerships; and how the capital and
operating costs of the services might be financed. Indeed, there was only inexact
data regarding the number of households in urban and rural areas. The same
difficulties were not experienced in the case of housing, since the housing backlog
had been estimated at the National Housing Forum (1992–1994) in the broadest
possible terms, as being 1.5 million units.
It was due to this lack of household and services information, and a lack of clarity
regarding options for delivering services, that, in 1995, the first version of the

Municipal Infrastructure Investment Framework (MIIF) was prepared (Ministry
in the Office of the President and the Department of Housing 1995). All too often
based on informed guesstimates, the MIIF provided the ‘missing’ data and suggested
how services might be delivered and financed.
At the same time as the MIIF was prepared, government was putting in place the
preconditions for the ‘One city, one tax base’ policy: re-demarcating and creating
integrated local governments in time for the 1995 and 2000 local government
elections, with the latter being viewed as the ‘final stage’ in the creation of
‘developmental local government’. Examples of the policies and policy frameworks
that emerged over time include integrated development planning, local economic
development, free basic services, and municipal services partnerships. Housing
policy was an exception to this transformation because, in 1992, negotiations began
in the National Housing Forum, and by the time of the 1994 democratic elections
what was, in effect, a draft housing White Paper was in place.
Many urban policies have subsequently been revised in the light of experience and,
importantly, also as government extended its democratic agenda. Free basic services
provide an example. During the 1980s one of the means employed to oppose the
Black Local Authority system was a boycott on payment for rent and services. A
decade and a half later, after it became clear that the widespread failure to pay for
services showed no sign of stopping and also that many households could not afford
to pay for services, the ANC and later government adopted the free basic services
policy. This represented a break with the earlier principle included in the MIIF that,
taking into account the potential for cross-subsidisation, consumers of water and
electricity should pay an amount for services consumed.
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DEMOCRACY AND DELIVERY: URBAN POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA
4
The context for urban policy formulation
Population growth and urbanisation
In the first instance, the context for urban policy is the size of the urban population,

its location, how rapidly it is growing, and where it is growing. The South African
census defines four types of areas: ‘tribal’ (former ‘homeland’), ‘rural formal’ or
‘commercial farming’, ‘urban formal’ and ‘urban informal’.
4

At the time of the 2001 census, South Africa’s population was 44 819 318 with about
57 per cent of the population deemed to be urban and 43 per cent rural. Forty-seven per
cent of the urban population lived in formal urban areas and 8 per cent lived in informal
urban areas. Thirty-five per cent of the rural population lived in tribal areas and 7 per cent
in commercial farming areas. The 3 per cent difference comprises overlapping urban and
rural categorisation – institutional housing, hostels, industrial areas and smallholdings –
with 2 per cent being found in urban areas and 1 per cent in rural areas.
The location of most of the urban population is depicted in Figure 1.1, which shows
the nine largest cities that are members of the South African Cities Network (SACN)
and also provincial capitals that are not included in the SACN. The SACN cities
are Johannesburg, eThekwini, Cape Town, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela,
Buffalo City, Msunduzi and Mangaung. In addition to the cities, Figure 1.1 also
reflects population density. Aside from Cape Town, it is apparent that most of the
country’s population lives in the eastern half of the country.
Figure 1.1 Cities comprising the SACN and provincial capitals
Source: HSRC
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INTRODUCTION
5
Figure 1.2 shows the population size and the number of households living in
the cities included in Figure 1.1. Johannesburg and eThekwini have more than
three million inhabitants and Cape Town has close to that number. Ekurhuleni
and Tshwane follow, with Ekurhuleni having about 2.5 million inhabitants and
Tshwane 2 million inhabitants. In practice, the three cities in Gauteng comprise a
single conurbation with a population of 7.7 million persons, approximating what

the international literature has recently referred to as the emergence of global ‘city
regions’ (Pillay 2004). The last city with metropolitan status, Nelson Mandela,
has about a million inhabitants, with Buffalo City, Mangaung and Msunduzi, not
classified as metropoles, having much smaller populations. The smaller populations
are also true of Polokwane and Mbombela, with a considerable drop to Mafikeng and
Sol Plaatje. Sol Plaatje is located in the Northern Cape, which is losing population.
Figure 1.2 Population and household numbers of SACN and selected secondary cities, 2001
Source: HSRC
In the case of the SACN cities, the most rapid growth is occurring in Gauteng. As can
be seen in Figure 1.3, the populations of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, at
22.2 per cent, 22.4 per cent and 18.0 per cent between 1996 and 2001 respectively,
are growing more rapidly than any other of the SACN cities (SACN 2004: 38). At
the same time, cities like Nelson Mandela, Msunduzi, Mangaung and Buffalo City
are growing at a rate below that of the nation.
3 500 000
3 000 000
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
Population
Households
Number
Johannesburg
eThekwini
Cape Town
Ekurhuleni
Tshw ane

Nelson Mandela
Buffalo City
Mangaung
Msunduzi
Polokwane
Mbombela
Mafikeng
Sol Plaatje
City
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DEMOCRACY AND DELIVERY: URBAN POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA
6
Figure 1.3 Population and household growth rates of SACN cities, 1996–2001
Source: SACN (2004: 38, 81)
The same data is unavailable for the other cities shown in Figure 1.1 due to
boundary changes. However, the populations of some other cities are also growing
very rapidly, while others are experiencing a declining population. Examples of
the former are Rustenburg in North West whose platinum mines are booming
(4.9 per cent per annum between the 1996 and 2001 censuses), and uMhlathuze
on the KwaZulu-Natal east coast whose port and industrial activities are growing
rapidly (8.07 per cent). In contrast, in addition to Sol Plaatje (–0.28 per cent),
Mathjabeng (–3.07 per cent) in the Free State is declining rapidly due to decline in
the gold-mining industry in the area (SACN 2004: 38).
It is as a result of the different growth rates that data pertaining to cities and
overall urbanisation should be read in conjunction with Figure 1.4, which shows
population growth between the two census periods, 1996 and 2001. Figure 1.4
points to the population decline in the Northern Cape and also many areas in the
former homelands, and also to the fact that in many areas the rural population is
growing more rapidly, often considerably more rapidly, than the national average of
2 per cent per annum. Aside from growth in Cape Town, in high value mostly wine

farming areas and along the coast north and west of the city, it is apparent that rapid
growth is mostly occurring in the eastern and more northern parts of the country.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Percentage
Johannesburg
eThekwini
Cape Town
Ekurhuleni
Tshw ane
Nelson Mandela
Buffalo City
Mangaung
Msunduzi
City
Population
Households
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INTRODUCTION
7
Figure 1.4 Municipal population growth between 1996 and 2001
Source: HSRC

It appears that there is also rapid growth in some cities outside Gauteng and also in
certain rural areas. The rural-to-rural migration is probably explained by the absence
of jobs in the metros and larger urban centres, the availability of social grants that
reduce household dependence on cities as possible sources of income, and of
subsidised housing and municipal and social services in small towns, predominantly
in the commercial farming areas (Bekker & Cross 1999; Cross 2001).
A last observation regarding the location of urban growth is that most of the increase
in the cities is occurring on the periphery of cities. This has long been known in the
case of the provision since 1994 of subsidised low-income housing projects, which
reinforce the disadvantages of poor access to jobs, social services and retail facilities;
but this distant location phenomenon is also characteristic of new migrants. This
situation is bemoaned by most urban practitioners and by government itself in the
Department of Housing’s 2004 Breaking New Ground policy statement where it is
observed that:
After the 1994 elections, Government committed itself to developing
more liveable, equitable and sustainable cities. Key elements of this
framework included pursuing a more compact urban form, facilitating
higher densities, mixed land use development, and integrating land
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DEMOCRACY AND DELIVERY: URBAN POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA
8
use and public transport planning, so as to ensure more diverse and
responsive environments whilst reducing travelling distances. Despite all
these well-intended measures, the inequalities and inefficiencies of the
apartheid space economy, has lingered on. (2004: 11)
Household growth and housing and services backlogs
From the point of view of urban policy, the increase in the number of households is
often more significant than the increase in the size of the population. This is because the
increase in the number of households, together with household incomes, determines
the housing backlog; because service connections are made to houses, flats and so on;

because household incomes determine the ability to pay for housing and services; and
because these have immediate implications for national budgeting for the housing
subsidy and capital and operating subsidies, municipal finances and so on.
South Africa has experienced a sharp decline in household size and a consequent
marked increase in the number of households. Between 1996 and 2001 the average
number of households in the SACN cities grew by 27.5 per cent, more than double
the population growth rate. In 1996 the average household size was 4.47 persons;
in 2001 it was 4. If the household size had remained constant at the 1996 figure, the
increase in the number of households would have been about 950 000. The actual
increase was 2.13 million households, a difference of 1.18 million households.
Figure 1.5 Average household size of SACN and selected secondary cities, 2001
Source: HSRC
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Size
Johannesburg
City
eThekwini
Cape Town
Ekurhuleni
Tshw ane
Nelson Mandela

Buffalo City
Mangaung
Msunduzi
Polokwane
Mbombela
Mafikeng
Sol Plaatje
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INTRODUCTION
9
Figure 1.3 shows population and household growth rates and Figure 1.5 the
differences in household size among the cities. Combining the two is important
because rapid population growth coupled with declining household size accentuates
the housing and services backlogs in an area. Again it is the cities in Gauteng that stand
out. The increase in the number of households in Johannesburg was a remarkable
8.05 per cent per annum, about double the national average. Johannesburg,
Ekurhuleni and Tshwane again have the most rapid growth rates. Indeed, with the
exception of Buffalo City, the rate of increase in the number of households in the
other SACN cities is below the national average. The rate of increase in the number
of households in Nelson Mandela and Msunduzi in particular is sharply below the
national average.
Possible explanations for the changes in household size include:
• Households that in the apartheid years suffered from massive overcrowding and
combined, for example, married children with parents, are unbundling.
• The role of migration may also be a consideration. Cross (2001) suggests that a
change in migration patterns is under way. Instead of circular migration, while
many householders still talk of returning ‘home’ to rural areas, in practice
what is happening is that families are, de facto, separating into urban and rural
households. This view is debated and to some degree supported by Russell
(2002). However, Posel (2003) and Cox, Hemson and Todes (2004) disagree

with the view that circular migration is giving way to separate urban and rural
households.
• The impact of HIV/AIDS on households is unclear. AIDS deaths have picked up
rapidly since 2001 but were not as profound between the 1996 and 2001 censuses
(Dorrington, Bradshaw, Johnson & Budlender 2004: 24).
• South Africa has a very young population base and the rate at which younger
people enter the housing market exceeds the general populations’ growth rate,
leading to smaller average household sizes.
• In regard to the influx of people from across South Africa’s northern borders,
people might come in as individuals and not necessarily as families, thus
reducing the average household size.
• Reportedly the National Treasury has suggested that the availability of the
housing subsidy has caused families to unbundle for the purpose of obtaining
the subsidy.
The increase in the number of households among the SACN cities should be read
in conjunction with Figure 1.6 which points to the rapid growth of households,
in excess of the national average of 4.34 per cent per annum, in many areas of the
country aside from the cities. Compared to areas where a population decline is
shown (Figure 1.4), there are fewer areas where there is a decline in the number of
households. There is at the same time a slower than national average increase in the
number of households in many of the former homelands.
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Figure 1.6 Household growth between 1996 and 2001
Source: HSRC
The implications of the increase in the number of households are evident in the
housing backlog. Despite the delivery of over 1.8 million subsidised housing units
completed – or under construction – between 1994 and March 2005, in its 2004
Breaking New Ground document the Department of Housing reported that the

housing backlog had increased to over 1.84 million units and is growing.
The proportions of households in the SACN cities that lack formal housing or water
5

on the stand or in the house are shown in Figure 1.7. The proportion of households
in the cities without formal housing ranges between 20 per cent and 38 per cent,
with the three non-metropolitan cities and eThekwini and Ekurhuleni being at
the top of the range. With the exception of Ekurhuleni, it is expected that this is
partly because their demarcation included former homelands. The proportion of
households in the cities without on-site water ranges between 15 per cent and
42 per cent, with eThekwini and the three non-metropolitan cities being at the top
of the range. The data is a bit difficult to interpret. On the one hand, it makes sense
that the cities whose boundaries include the former homelands will have the largest
water backlogs; on the other hand, it is to be expected that formal houses will have
on-site water, and this is not always the case, for example in Ekurhuleni. Rather than
try to explain the latter differences, one wonders about the data.
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INTRODUCTION
11
Figure 1.7 The percentage of households without formal shelter and on-site water in SACN cities, 2001
Source: SACN (2004: 27–31, 80)
Population projections and the future growth of the cities
One cannot assume that high urban population and household growth rates
will continue. South Africa’s population is growing increasingly slowly, although
the projections that follow do not indicate that HIV/AIDS will lead to negative
population growth. Increasingly, urban growth will be propelled less by the natural
increase of the urban population and more by internal movement within the
country and, perhaps, migration from other countries.
The population projections to 2015, including those for HIV/AIDS, are shown in
Table 1.1 and are based on the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) 2002 model

(Dorrington et al. 2004). The projections are for South Africa and none are available
for cities and for households. Due to the prevalence of HIV/AIDS, which the Nelson
Mandela/Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) survey reported as 11.4 per cent
in 2002, HIV/AIDS is a determining factor of population growth in South Africa.
6

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Percentage
City
Johannesburg
eThekwini
Cape Town
Ekurhuleni
Tshw ane
Nelson Mandela
Buffalo City
Mangaung
Msunduzi
% of households
without formal shelter
% of households

without on-site water
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12
Table 1.1 Projected population, number of HIV positive, AIDS sick and cumulative AIDS deaths for
1990–2015, ASSA 2002 (default scenario)
Year Total population Annual growth rate % Total HIV+ Cumulative AIDS deaths
1990 35 538 787 1.8 38 597 326
1995 40 153 091 2.7 943 590 20 662
2000 43 966 756 1.4 3 731 645 318 697
2005 46 156 343 0.7 5 165 797 1 542 169
2010 47 380 126 0.5 5 408 621 3 404 415
2015 48 294 565 0.3 5 407 945 5 358 501
Source: Dorrington et al. (2004: 24)
The ASSA projections to 2015 require assumptions regarding:
• information and education campaigns;
• improved treatment of sexually transmitted diseases;
• voluntary counselling and testing;
• mother-to-child transmission prevention; and
• antiretroviral treatment. (Dorrington et al. 2004: 8)
Regarding the overall expected trends for population size, Table 1.1 shows the total
population for five year intervals, the annual population growth rate, the number
of people infected with HIV and accumulated AIDs deaths. Dorrington et al.
observe that:
The total population continues to increase over the period, although at a
decreasing rate. From 2011, the expected annual rate of increase is 0.4%.
The number of people infected with HIV peaks in 2013, at just over 5.4
million, after which it starts to decrease slowly. In contrast, the number
of people sick with AIDS in the middle of each year continues to rise
over the period, reaching nearly 743 000 in 2015. Accumulated AIDS

deaths are close to 5.4 million by the same year. By 2004, it is estimated
that over 1.2 million people have already died as a result of AIDS, just
over 5 million are infected with HIV, and over 500 000 are AIDS sick.
(2004: 23)
According to these projections, population growth will slow from 0.7 per cent per
annum in 2005 to 0.3 per cent in 2015. At the same time, because HIV infection most
affects young adults, beginning at about 20 years old and continuing for another
20 or so years, due to the time lag between infection and death, it is in middle age
that most deaths occur. This is when the dying are raising children and caring
for the elderly. The death of one or more income-earning household members
considerably increases the dependency burden on other household members. This,
together with the large number of mostly working-age adults who are AIDS sick
and in need of care, points to the burden that will be placed on households and the
extended family.
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INTRODUCTION
13
Household incomes
So far, the focus has been on the urbanisation of the population, the increase in the
number of households, housing and services backlogs, and the location of low-income
households within cities. The significance of this material should be interpreted in
the light of changing household incomes. This is because household incomes above a
certain level enable the household to successfully participate in the private delivery of
housing and services, contribute significantly to municipal rates and services, reduce
the need for capital and operating subsidies for municipalities, and so on.
In this regard, Table 1.2 provides extraordinary statistics regarding employment
and unemployment amongst African and coloured people. Of the urban African
and coloured labour force, 38.7 per cent are without employment and 56.5 per
cent are without formal employment. Although there has been modest growth in
formal sector employment, job creation in this sector has failed to keep pace with

the growth in the labour force.
Table 1.2 Racial incidence of urban employment and unemployment, 2004
African and coloured White
Millions Percentage Millions Percentage
Employee, formal sector 4.3 43.5 1.4 72.5
Employee, informal sector 1.0 10.3 0.0 0.9
Self-employed, formal sector 0.1 1.3 0.3 15.6
Self-employed, informal sector 0.6 6.2 0.1 4.0
Unemployed (broad def.) 3.9 38.7 0.1 7.0
Total 9.9 100.0 1.9 100.0
Source: Calculated from StatsSA, Labour Force Survey, March 2004
Note: The data was provided by Mark Aliber of the HSRC.
The negative implications for household incomes are ameliorated by the availability
of social grants. In 1994 government spent R10 billion on social grants and there
were 2.6 million beneficiaries. In 2003 the expenditure was R34.8 billion and there
were 6.8 million beneficiaries. It is speculated that it is due to these grants that there
has been a decline in households with an income of less than R800 per month;
conversely, it is speculated that it is due to increasing unemployment that there has
been an increase in households with an income of less than R3 500.
Structure of the book: four sets of urban policies
At the outset it was noted that there are four sets of urban policies: the ‘missing’
urban spatial form and urbanisation policies; policies that give effect to ‘One city,
one tax base’ prescripts; policies that promote ‘developmental local governments’;
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14
and policies that promote the mass delivery of housing and services. The structure
of this book follows these four sets of policies, plus, of course, provides reflective
comment in a concluding chapter.
Urban and urbanisation

The absence of an urbanisation policy is curious in the light of apartheid policies
that historically prevented the urbanisation of the African population. The
assumption seems to have been that urbanisation is a natural and inevitable process
and that it should be left unattended. As it turns out, Doreen Atkinson and Lochner
Marais in Chapter 2 find that a variety of government programmes have had spatial
consequences, often unintended and contradictory, and also that the migration
from tribal rural to small towns in commercial farming areas could not have been
predicted. Urbanisation in South Africa is following an unprecedented course. The
Presidency’s preparation of the 2003 National Spatial Development Perspective and
the 2005 draft Urban Development Framework will provide some guidance in the
future, but they occur at a ‘higher level’ than the complex and diverse array of issues
that need to be addressed and should form part of an urbanisation policy.
The absence of effective urban spatial policies is surprising because, since the 1970s,
there has been ongoing research into the apartheid city and how urban areas should
be restructured. Alison Todes concludes Chapter 3 by referring to these concerns as an
‘idea’ that captured the enthusiasm of academics and, amongst professionals, planners
in particular. It is in the Department of Housing’s 2004 Breaking New Ground that
government has specified its determination to devote resources to acquiring well-
located land for low-income housing and to build compact and, a word that now has
wide resonance, ‘sustainable’ cities, human settlements and communities.
One city, one tax base
The municipal demarcation and local government and municipal restructuring
policies follow directly from the set of ‘One city, one tax base’ policies. They are
aimed at creating integrated local governments that are able to deliver services and
have the financial capacity to do so.
In Chapter 4 Robert Cameron outlines the hasty process of demarcating local
government and ward boundaries for the 1995 elections, and then the 2000
elections. The 1996 Constitution provided for the creation of an independent
Municipal Demarcation Board. The criteria for demarcating local government and
ward boundaries emerged from the White Paper on Local Government of 1998.

The actual design of local government went through a complex three phases.
Mirjam van Donk and Edgar Pieterse in Chapter 5 hold that the first phase started
with the struggles of the late 1980s, and came to a close with the municipal elections
of 1995/96, when a negotiated transitional system of local government came into
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INTRODUCTION
15
effect. The second phase started with the 1996 Constitution, which established local
government as an autonomous sphere of government, and then proceeded to the
Local Government White Paper and subsequent legislation that further elaborated
on what the new local government system would entail. The 2000 municipal
elections signified the end of the transitional phase of local government, and the
beginning of the new system of local government.
Alan Mabin’s Chapter 6 reinforces the salient points made in Chapter 5 through
an examination of local government reorganisation around essentially two themes,
with the second being the dominant theme. The first has to do with the differences
between the ‘needs’ of the local governments of large cities and local governments of
smaller urban centres; and the second, the evolving debates around the purpose of
local government. These purposes include service provision, economic development,
redistribution, partnership with business, and vehicles for democratic participation.
With these purposes not being mutually exclusive, and residing more in relative
emphasis, the debate is about the politics of government reorganisation.
None of this would mean a great deal if local governments lacked the finances to provide
services and serve as developmental local governments. Philip van Ryneveld contributed
to most aspects of the formulation of local government financial policy and provides
a detailed record of the changes in Chapter 7. As with Cameron, and Van Donk and
Pieterse, he points to the central role of the Local Government White Paper and the
municipal finance and service delivery legislation that emerged from the White Paper.
Developmental local government
The centrepiece of developmental local government is the Integrated Development

Plan (IDP). Philip Harrison (Chapter 8) explains that notions regarding the
potential role for such plans emerged from the New Public Management movement
and comparative experience in the United States under Clinton, the United Kingdom
under Blair, New Zealand and various academic treatises. A substantive conception
of developmental local government and IDPs, yet again, emerged out of the Local
Government White Paper. IDPs provide a long-term vision for a municipality; detail
the priorities of an elected council; link and coordinate sectoral plans and strategies;
align financial and human resources with implementation needs; strengthen the
focus on environmental sustainability; and provide the basis for annual and
medium-term budgeting.
IDPs are intended to give effect to the constitutionally prescribed role of local
governments of promoting economic and social development. Local Economic
Development (LED) plans are central to this role. LED strategies are integrated into
IDPs, and the exploration in the mid-1990s of what they might mean for policy
in South Africa was initially based mostly on US experience. Etienne Nel and
Lynelle John (Chapter 9) describe the first efforts at the formulation of LED
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