Một số mô hình dự báo sự thay đổi hành động tham gia xây dựng nông thôn mới của người dân và thái độ e ngại của họ về những hiện tượng tiêu cực có thể xảy ra

MOT SO MO HINH DLJ BAO
sa THAY DOI HANH DONG
THAM GIA XAY DL/NG NONG THON M 6 |
CUA NGUOI DAN V A THAI DO E NGAI
CUA HO VE NHQNG HIEN TUONG
TIEU c u e CO THE XAY RA'»
PGS.TS. L6 Thj Thanh Hi/ang
Vien Tdm ly hgc.

•

T O M TAT
DO- lieu khdo sdt Iren 659 nguoi ndng ddn lai 6 xd thudc Hd Ndi, Nam Dinh vd
Thdi Binh vdi gidi tinh, do tudi, trinh do hoc vdn khdc nhau. Kel qud phdn tich hdi
quy bdi cho ihay, mot sd yeu Id gdm y thuc cita ngirdi ddn ve Irdch nhiem hap tdc vdi
chinh quyen trong xdy dung vd cdi thien nhung ITnh vuc khdc nhau cua cuoc sdng
ndng thdn, tdm ly sdn xual nhd, ndng luc cdn bg ca sd, nhdn thiic cua ngudi ddn ve
nong thdn mdi, tinh y lai vd ddnh gid ciia hg ve nhirng thay ddi dai sdng trong qud
trinh xdy dung ndng thdn mdi Id nhiing yeu to cdn dugc quan ldm khi xdy dung cdc
bien phdp nhdm cdi thien thdi do vd hdnh dong tham gia xdy dung ndng ihdn mdi cita
ngudi ddn
Tir khoa: Nong thon mdi; Nong ddn. Xdy dung nong thon mdi.
Ngdy nhdn bdi 9/12/2015: Ngdy duyel ddng bdf 25/3/2017.
ABSTRACT
The survey data was collected from 659 farmers m 6 communes in Ha Noi,
Nam Dinh and Thai Binh with difference about gender, age, educational levels Multiple
regression analysis showed that individuals' awareness on their responsibility of cooperating
with Government's responsibility to construct and improve various aspects of rural life,
psychological specifics of small business, capacity of govermental officials at grassrool
level, famers ' understanding of new rural, their dependence and their assessment on
social changes occurring during the building up of new rural areas are critical faclors

that need lo be concerned when developing solutions lo improve individuals' attitudes
and behaviors involving new rural movement.
Keywords: A new rural area: Famer; Activities in contriiciing a mw rural area

TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, So 4 (217), 4 - 2017


Trong thuc t i cuoc s6ng, thai dfl va htoh dpng ciia con n^ffi lu6n chju
tac d6ng dflng thoi cua nhiiu yiu t i khac nhau, Vi vSy, mat tiip c|in nghien
ciiu theo huong ghi nhan tic d6ng dSng thffi cila nhieu yiu t6 len nhiing hiSn
tugng tSm ly dugc nghien cttu sS cho phep dua ra dugc nhihig du bao sat hon
vffi thirc ti. Do do, cac bi^n phip dugc d i ra tren ca sd nhiing du bao d6 cung
kha thi hon. Viec tim hiiu m6t s6 m6 huih du bSo sir thay doi hanh ddng tham
gia xay dung nong thon mffi cila nguffi dan n6ng th6n va thai do e ngai cua hg
vi nhihig hien tugng tiSu cue co thi x4y ra khi dja phuong triin khai d6 an xSy
dung n6ng thfln mffi cung di theo huiimg nay.
TSm ly con ngu6i la mgt thi th6ng nhdt, trong do cac hien tugng, cac
dSc diim tSm ly luon nam trong m6i quan he chit che vffi nhau, hien tugng,
dac diim tam ly nay co the 14 yiu t6 co anh huffiig den hien tugng, dac diim
tam Iy khac, dong thffi lai chiu tac dgng cua nhihig yiu to do. Viec xac djnh
cac m6 hinh d^ bao tuy thudc vao chS nguffi nghien cttu xem hien tugng nao la
biin dOc ISp va hien tugng n4o la bidn phu thuoc. Neu cho rang, x6t dSn ciing,
hiSu qui chuong trinh xay dung nong thon mffi phu thuoc vao thai d5, dac bi$t
la vao hanh dflng tham gia xSy dung nong thon mdi .cua nguffi dSn thi nhttng
yiu ti khac co thi dugc xem la yiu t i tac d6ng.
I. Phinrag phap nghiSn ciru
Mdu nghien cuu:
Miu gom 659 nguffi dan ti-a Iffi bang hoi tai 6 xa thuoc Ha N6i, Nam
Dinh va Thai Bmh vffi giffi tinh, dp tuoi, trinh dS hgc vdn khac nhau. Khdch thi
tham gia phong vdn sSu gom 22 nguffi khong thu6c miu khach thi tham gia tra

IM bang h6i. Khao sat dugc thirc hien thang 9 nam 2013.
Cdng cu:
Phugng phap thu thap dtt lifiu chu yiu la bang hoi va phong vdn siu.
Trong bang hoi co mgt sg thang do dugc xay dung nhSm tim hiiu hanh dgng
tham gia xay dung ngng thgn mm cua nguffi dSn, thai do e ngai cua hg vi nhttng
hi$n tugng tieu cue co thi xay ra khi dja phuang triin khai di an xSy dung nong
thon moi va mgt s6 yiu t i tac dgng din hanh dgng va thai do do cua hg. M6i
menh de trong cac thang do diu co 4 phuang an trd 16i, ttng vai 4 muc diim ttt 1
den 4. Y nghia cua cac diim s6 dugc thiit ki nhu sau: Diim cang cao thi mttc
do d6ng y cua nguffi fra Idi dii voi ngi dung dugc hoi cang cao. Cu thi, vffi cac
thang do v6 thai do e ng^i, tam ly san xudt nho va tinh y lai cua nguffi dan, diim
cang cao thi cac dac diim tam Iy do cua nguffi dan cang thi hien ro. Vffi cdc
thang do con lai (hanh dgng tham gia xay dyng nong thon mffi ciia ngudi dan;
danh gia cua ngudi dan vi nSng Iuc; danh gia cua ngudi dan vi phdm chdt can
bg; tinh than hgp tac cua ngudi dan vdi chinh quyin trong xiy dung va cdi thidn
^'^

TAP CHI TAM l y HOC, sa' 4 (217), 4 - 2017


nhOng ITnh vuc khac nhau cua cuoc s6ng nong thon; quan he cong dong t^i dja
phuang; nhan thuc cua ngu^i dan vh xay dung nong thon moi; danh gia cua
nguoi dan v^ nhung thay d6i trong san xudt; danh gia ciia nguoi dan v^ nhung
thay doi trong doi s6ng; danh gia cua nguoi dan ve nhiJng thay doi trong hoat
dpng chinh quyen va doan thS), diem cang cao thi nguM dan cang co nhiJng
danh gia tich cue ve cac v4n de dugfc hoi. Dp tin cay cua cac thang do nay dao
dpng tir 0,67 den 0,88, do do co the su dung dugc d6 khao sat thuc tiin.
Cac phep thong ke chii yeu dupe sii dung la phan tich diem trung binh,
phan tich tuong quan va hoi quy. Trong mpt so truang hop can thiet, ham IglO
da duac su dung de quy di6m danh gia cac yeu to ve cung mpt thang diem.

II. Ket qua nghien cij-u
Cdc mo hinh du- bdo hanh vi xay dung nong thon m&i cua ngiroi dan
Trong nghien ciiu nay, hanh dpng tham gia xay dung nong thon mdi va
thai dp e ngai cua nguoi dan ve nhung hien tucmg tieu cue co the xay ra khi dja
phuang trien khai d^ an xay dimg nong thon mdi duac xem la nhiJng bien phu
thupc va 10 yeu to sau day dupe xem la nhung bien tac dpng, gom: danh gia ciia
ngudi dSn ve nang luc; danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve pham chat can bp; tinh than
hop tac ciia ngudi dan vdi chinh quyen trong xay dung va cai thien nhiJng ITnh
vuc khac nhau ciia cuoc song nong thon; quan he cong dong tai dja phuong; tam
ly san xuat nho ciia ngudi dan; tinh y lai ciia ngudi dan vao Nha nude va chinh
quyen cac cap; nhan thuc cua ngudi dan ve xay dung nong thon mdi; danh gia
cua ngudi dan ve nhiing thay doi trong san xuat; danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve
nhung ihay doi trong ddi song; danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve nhung thay doi trong
hoat dpng chinh quyen va doan the. Phep phan lich tuong quan va hdi quy cd the
cho phep du doan muc dp lac dpng ciia nhiJng yeu to tam ly neu iren den hanh
dpng tham gia xay dung nong thdn mdi cua ngudi dan cung nhu thai dp cua hp
lien quan den qua Irinh nay.
Bdng I: Ket qud phdn tich hoi quy bdc nhdt

Bien tac ctong

Bien phu thuoc
Hanh dong ciia ngucri
Thai do e ngai cua ngu'M
dan tham gia xay dung
(Ian khi dja phvong xay
nong thon moi
dung nong thon moi
He so tirong He so hoi He sti tu'ong
He so hoi

(|uan r
quy r^
quan r
quy r'

1. Phain chat can bo

0,308**

0.095***

-0,315**

0,099***

2 Nang Uic can bo

0.230**

0,053***

-0.308**

0,095***

TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, So 4 (2 i 7), 4 - 2017


3. Tinh thin hap tac cua ngu6i
dan vai chinh quyen

4. Thai dp e ngai cua nguofi dan
khi dia phuang xay dung nong
thfin mai

0,456**

0,208***

-0,231**

0,054**

-0,213**

0,045***

5. Quan he cong d6ng a dia phuang

0,179**

0,032**

-0,210**

0,044***

6. Tam ly san xuit nho cua nguai
dan

-0,262**

0,069***

0,425**

0,180***

7. Tinh y lai vao Nha nuac va
chinh quyen cua nguai dan

Khong
tuang quan

0,351**

0,123***

8. Nhan thuc cua nguai dan ve
xay dung nong thon mai

0,25**

0,061***

-0,31**

0,094***

9. Danh gia ciia nguoi dan ve
nhung thay doi trong san xuat

0,284**

0,081***

-0,227**

0,051***

10. Banh gia ciia nguoi dan ve
nhirng thay doi trong ddi song

0,347**

0,120***

-0,307**

0,095***

11. Danh gia ciia nguai dan ve
nhirng thay doi trong hoat dong
chinh quyen va doan the

0,220**

0,068**»

-0,196**

0,038**

Ghi chii: *•• khip < 0.001: •* khip < 0,01.

Ket qua phan tich tuong quan va hdi quy bac nhat cho thSy, niu chua tinh
den thai do cua ngudi dan thi co 8 biin tac dgng co tuong quan thuan va 1 biSn
CO tuang quan nghich vdi hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi cua hg
(trir tinh y lai). Tir gia tri cua cac he sd tuong quan cd the thay ring, khi nang
luc, pham chat ciia can bg, y thirc vi trach nhiem hgp tac ciia ngudi dan vdi
chinh quyen trong xay dung que huong, quan he cdng ddng d dja phuang, nhan
thuc cua ngudi dan ve xay dung nong thdn mdi va nhOng thay ddi trong ddi
song, san xuat va trong hoat dgng cua chinh quy6n dugc cai thien thi tinh tich
cue hanh dgng cua ngudi dan khi tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi dugc tang
len, ngugc lai, khi ngudi dan cang thi hien ro tam ly san xukt nhd thi tinh tich
circ hanh dgng cua hg cang giam. TSt ca 9 yiu td tam ly neu tren diu cd tac ddng
den hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi dan, trong dd tinh
than hgp tac cua ngudi diin vdi chinh quyjn trong xay dung va cai thien nhimg
linh vuc khac nhau cua cugc sdng xa hoi ndng thdn la hiin cd ty le giai thich cao
nhat trong sd cac yiu td dugc xem xet mgt each ddc lap, khoang 20,8% nhirng
thay ddi trong hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi dan. Biin
CO ty le giai thich cao thii hai la danh gia cua ngudi dan vi nhirng thay ddi trong
ddi sdng. giai thich dugc 12.0% nhirng thay diii trong hanh ddng cua ngudi dan.
TAP CHITAM LV HOC, Sd4 (217), 4-2017


Bang 2: Bon mo hinh tdc dgng toi icu den hdnh dgng tham gia
xdy dung nong thon mai cua nguai ddn *
Beta

Mircy

nghia (p)

0,574

0,000

3/o hinh 1:
r' = 0,330; hdng S6B = 0,328: p < 0,001
1

! Tinh thdn hop tac cua nguai dan vai chinh quyen

Mo hinh 2:
r' = 0,392; hdng soB = 0,237; p< 0,001
1

Tinh than hpp tac cua nguai dan vdi chinh quyen

0,515

0,000

2

Danh gia cua nguofi dan ve nhimg thay doi trong dai song

0,256

0,000

Md hinh 3:
r' = 0,422; hdngsoB = 0,261; p<0,01
1

Tinh than hgp tac ciia nguai dan vdi chinh quyen

0,502

0,000

2

Danh gia cua nguofi dan ve nhung thay doi trong ddi song

0,236

0,000

3

Nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ve nong thon mdi

0,175

0,000

Mo hinh 4:
r' = 0,439; hdng sd B = 0,293; p<0,05
1

Tinh than hop tac ciia ngudi dan vdi chinh quyen

0,485

0,000

2

Danh gia cua ngudi dan ve nhirng thay ddi trong ddi song

0,199

0,001

3

Nhan thirc ciia nguoi dan ve nong thon mdi

(),I73

0,002

4

Tiim ly san xuat nhd ciia ngudi dan

-0,138

0,017

Chit ihich- * Ket qua hoi quy boi stepwise ttj' tac dgng cua 8 bien co tuang quan vai hanh
dong tham gia xay dung nong thon ma\ ciia nguai dan (khong kc thai do e ngai ciia nguai dan
va nang lire can bo).
Bien phu ihuoc: Hanh dong tham gia xay dung nong thon mai ciia nguai dan.
Bien idc dongMo hinh 1: Tmh than hop tac ciia nguai dan vai chinh quyen.
Mo hinh 2: Tinh than hgp tac ciia nguoi dan vai chinh quyen; Danh gia ciia nguai dan ve
nhiJng thay doi trong dai song
Mo hinh 3: Tinh than hgp tac ciia nguoi dan voi chinh quyen; Danh gia ciia nguai dan ve
nhung thay doi trong dai song; Nhan thu'c ciia nguoi dan ve xay dung nong thon mai.
Mo hinh 4: Tinh than hgp tac ciia nguoi dan voi chinh quyen; Danh gia cua nguai dan ve
nhung thay doi trong dai s6ng; Nhan thuc cua nguoi dan ve xay dung nong thon mai; Tam ly
san xuat nho cua nguai dan.

TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, S6' 4 (217), 4 - 2017


Tuy nhien, tren thuc ti khd cd the cd Oiidng hgp chi cd 1 bien tac ddng
ddc lap ma khdng bi cac biin khac gay nhieu. Vi vay, phep phan tich hdi quy
bdi stepwise (dua dSn vao cac bidn tac ddng va loai dSn ra nhirng bidn khdng
cdn y nghia) da dugc su dung di phat hiSn cac md hinh hdi quy tdi uu va sat
hon vdi thuc ti. Trong phep hdi quy bdi, bien nang Iuc c4n bd da bi loai do cd
tucmg quan kha manh vdi bien phSm chat can bd (r > 0,8). Bien pham chat can
bd dugc giii lai do mirc dd tac ddng ciia nd den hanh ddng ciia ngudi dan manh
han so vdi hiin nang lire (trong hdi quy dan nhat). Nhu vay, cd tat ca 8 bien
tac dgng d6n hanh dgng ciia ngudi dan trong tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi
dugc dua vao phan tich hdi quy bdi.
Ket qua phan tich hdi quy bdi stepwise cho thSy cd bdn md hinh tac ddng
tdi uu, gdm: 1) Cai thien nhin nhan ciia ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac vdi
chinh quySn (giai thich dugc 33,0% nhirng thay ddi trong hanh ddng cila ngudi
dan); 2) Cai thien ddng thdi ca nhin nhein ciia ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac

vdi chinh quyen va nhirng thay ddi trong ddi sdng ngudi dan va cdng ddng trong
qua trinh xay dung ndng thdn mdi (giai thich dugc 39,2%); 3) Cai thien ddng
thdi ca nhin nhan cua ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac vdi chinh quyen, nhirng
thay ddi trong ddi sdng ngudi dan va cdng ddng trong qua trinh xay dyng ndng
thdn mdi va nang cao nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ve xay dyng ndng thdn mdi (giai
thich dugc 42,2%); 4) Cai thien ddng thdi ca nhin nhan ciia ngudi dan ve trach
nhiem hgp tac vdi chinh quyen, nhirng thay ddi trong ddi sdng ngudi dan, cdng
ddrig, nang cao nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ve xay dung ndng thdn mdi va giam
thieu tam ly san xuat nhd ciia ngudi dan (giai thich dugc 43,9%). Tir nhirng ket
qua hdi quy bdi neu tren, cd the xay dung cac phucmg trinh du bao su thay ddi
hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi cua ngudi dan tir nhung thay ddi
ciia cac bien tac dgng. Chang ban, vdi md hinh 4, chung ta cd phuang trinh sau:
Hanh ddng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi dan ^ 0,293 +
0.485 (y thilc vi trach nhiem hgp tac) + 0.199 (danh gia cua ngudi dan vi
nhu'ng thay doi trong ddi sdng) + 0,173 (nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan vi xay dung
ndng thdn mdi) - 0,138 (tam ly san xuSt nhd ciia ngudi dan).
T rong md hinh nay, y thirc vc trach nhiem hgp tac ciia ngudi dan la bien
CO tac ddng manh nhat (Beta = 0.485) va tam ly san xuit nhd eiia ngudi dan la
bien cd tac dgng y6u nhSl (Beta = -0.138).
Vdi phep hdi quy bdi, cd Ihi thiy ring, khi ca 8 biSn dugc lua chgn di
dua viio xu ly thi tac ddng cua bdn yiu td la phim chit can bd, quan he con
ngudi lai cdng ddng, danh gia ciia ngudi dan vi nhirng thay ddi trong .san xuit
va danh gia cua ngudi dan ve nhung thay ddi trong hoat dgng cua chinh quyjn

TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, Sd4 (217), 4 - 2 0 1 7


va cac doan thi din hanh dpng tham gia xay dimg nong thon mdi cua nguai
dan bi giam thiiu rSt nhiiu (khong con y nghia thdng ke).
Nhu vay, khi xay dimg cac bien phap nham tich cue hoa hanh dong

tham gia xay dung ndng thon moi ciia nguai dan can chu y den bon yeu to
quan trong da ducrc chi ra trong mo hinh hoi quy boi tren day, dac biet la yeu to
y thirc vl trach nhiem hop tac ciia ngucri dan.
Mo hinh dijr bdo thdi dd e ngai cua ngu&i dan ve nhirng hien ttrffng
tieu ctrc co thi xdy ra khix&y dimg ndng thon m&i
Tren thyc tl, hanh vi cua mpt ca nhan ve mot v4n de nao do khong phai
luc nao cung nh§t quan vdi thai dp ciia hp, tuy nhien, trong nhieu truang hop,
thai dp van dinh hudng hanh vi. Vi vay, ban d^u chung toi cho rang, thai dp e
ngai cua ngudi dan ve nhung hien tupng tieu cue co the xay ra khi dia phuang
x^y dvmg nong thon mdi se co tac dong tieu cue khong nho den hanh dpng tich
eye tham gia xhf dyng nong thon mdi ciia hg. Ket qua phan tich tuong quan cho
thay giua hai yeu to nay co moi tuong quan trai chieu nhung khong manh (r ^ -0,231;
p < 0,01). Nhin chung, ngudi dan cang e ngai ve nhitng hien tupTig tieu cue cd
the xay ra khi dia phuang trien khai de an xay dyng nong thon mdi thi tinh tich
eye cua hp trong vice tham gia xay dyng nong thon mdi cang giam nhung moi
quan he nay chua that ro ret. Ket qua phan tich hoi quy bac nhat cho thay, nhung
thay doi trong thai dp e ngai cua ngudi dan ve nhung hien tugng tieu cue co the
xay ra khi dia phuang trien khai de an xay dung nong thon mdi chi giai thich
duac 5,4% cho nhimg thay doi trong hanh dpng ciia ngudi dan (vdi nhimg bieu
hien dupe tim hieu trong nghien cuu nay). Co the nhirng dien bien trong ddi
song xa hoi nong thon trong nhieu nam qua da tao ra moi quan he thieu chat che
giua hai bien neu tren. Ket qua phong van sau ngudi dan lai nhiJng dia ban dupe
khao sat cho thay hien tuang tham o, tham nhung. Igi ich nhdm... cung da xay
ra tai nhiing dia phuang do. Tuy nhien do thudng la nhirng vu viec nho dugc
ngudi dan ban tan, chia se thong tin cho nhau mpt each khong chinh thuc va hp
cung khong cd dugc nhimg bang chirng cu the de khang dinh mgt hien tuong cu
the nao. Nhu \-ay. nhirng ban khoan, nghi ngd \'an ton tai, song co the tinh thiiu
can cu ro rang ciia chiing da lam yeu di tac dpng ciia thai do den hanh dpng ciia
ngudi dan. Mac dii vay, thai dp am tinh neu tren van co tac dgng tieu eye din
tinh tich eye tham gia xay dung nong thon mdi ciia ngudi dan. Vi vay, cai thien

thai do cua hg theo hudng lich cue van !a vice can lam,
Ket qua phep phan tich tuang quan eho ihay cd 8 biin (danh gia ciia
ngudi dan ve nang luc; pham chat can bg; y thiic ve trach nhiem hgp tac ciia
ngudi dan vdi chinh quyen irong xay dung va cai thien nhirng ITnh vuc khac
nhau ciia cugc song nong thon; quan he egng dong tai dia phuang; nhan thirc
TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, Sd 4 (217), 4 - 2017

19


cua ngudi dSn vi xSy dung ndng thdn mdi; danh gia ciSa ngudi dan v6 nhihig
thay ddi trong cac ITnh vuc s&i xuit, ddi sdng vk troiig hoat ddng cua^chinh
quydn va cac doan thi) cd tuong quan nghich va 2 biin (tam 1^ san xuat nhd
cila ngudi dan, tinh -j lai ciia ngudi dan vao Nha nude va chinh quyen cac cip)
cd tuong quan thuan vdi th4i do e ngai cHa ngudi dan ve nhOng hito tugng tieu
cvc cd thi xay ra khi dia phuong triin khai dl an xSy dyng ndng thdn mdi.
Nhu vay, cd ihl du doan ring, khi cai thien nhiing yiu td cd tuang quan nghjch
thi thai dg e nMi cua ngudi dta se giam di, ngugc lai, khi ngudi dSn cang y lai
vao chinh quyin, cang thi hien rd tam Iy san xuit nhd thi thai do e ngai cua hg
se tang. Kit qua hdi quy bac nhit cho thiy, tam ly san xuit nhd la bien cd ty le
giai thich cao nhit, khoang 18,0% su thay ddi cila thai do e ngai cua ngudi dSn
trong sd cac yiu td dugc xem xet mdt each ddc lap. Bi6n cd miic do giai thich
cao thii hai la tinh y lai, giii thfch dugc 12,3% sy thay ddi cila tSm ly e ngai.
Kit qua nay cd thi phdn anh 2 trudng hgp: do tac ddng cua co che tSm ly nao
dd, cd thi libilng ngudi c6 tam I^ s4n xuit nhd hay cd tinh y lai thi thudng that
sy cd thdi do vl nhihig hien tugng tieu cue cd the xay ra khi dja phuang trien
khai dl an xay dung ndng thdn mdi nhung cung cd the thai do dd ctia hg chi la
cai cd dl hg bao bien (bao vS) cho nhimg biiu hiSn tam Iy tri trS eda hg.
Mgt iin nOa, nhimg sd ligu thu dugc tit khao sat thyc tien cho thiy,
nhirng yiu td tSm ly tich eye cua con ngudi thudng cd tac ddng manh den

nhiing hinh ddng tich cue cua hg ban la den yiu td ti6u cue, ngugc lai, nhiing
yiu td tSm ly tieu cue cd tac ddng manh din nhung thai do tifiu cue hon la den
nhiing hanh ddng tich eye.
Bdng 3: Bdn md hinh tdc ddng tdi uu den thdi do e nggi cua ngudi ddn
ve nhiing hien tugng tieu cue cd the xdy ra khi dia phuang
xdy dung ndng thdn mdi*
Beta

Mirc y nghia
(P)

0,375

0,000

Md hinh J:
r' = 0,141; hdng sd B = 0,177; p < 0,001
1

1 Tam ly san xuit nho

Mo hinh 2:
r' = 0,224; hdng SSB = 0,538: p < 0.001
1

Tam ly san xuat nho

0,312

0,000

2

Nang lire can bo

-0,295

0,000

20

TAP CHI TAM Lf HOC, S6'4 (217), 4 - 2017


Mo hinh 3:
r'=0 304; hone SSB = 0.491; p<0,001
0,000

1

T3m ly sin xuat nho

0,239

2

Nang luc can bO

-0,315

0,000

3

Tinh y lai

0,293

0,000

Md hinh 4:
r' = 0J28; hine S6B = 0,665; p < 0,01
1

Tam ly sdn xuat nh6

0,198

0,000

2

Nang lire can b$

-0,265

0,000

3

Tinh y lai

0,275

0,000

4

Danh gid ciia nguai dSn ve nhirng thay d6i
trong d6i sdng

-0,170

0,004

Ciiu Ihich: * Kel qud hdi quy bgi stepwise tu tdc dgng cua 9 bien cd tucmg quan vcri thdi dg e
nggi cua ngudi ddn (trirphdm chdt cdn bg).
Bien phi/i thuoc: Thii dp e ngai cua nguai dan ve nh&ng hiSn tugng tl6u circ co the xay ra khi
dia phuong xay dung ndng thon mdi.
Bien tdc dgng:
M6 hinh 1: TSm ly san xult nho cua nguofi n6ng dSn.
Mo hinh 2: Tam ly san xuat nho ciia ngudi ndng dSn; Ndng luc can bp.
Md hinh 3: TSm ly sdn xult nhd ciia ngudi ndng ddn; Nang luc can bd; Tinh y l?li.
Md hinh 4: Tam ly san xuat nhd ciia nguai ndng dan; Nang luc can bp; Tinh y lai; Danh gia
cua ngucri dan ve nhung thay ddi trong ddi sdng.

Kit qua cua phep hdi quy bdi stepwise cho thay, ed bdn md hinh tac ddng
tdi im den thai do e ngai ciia ngudi dan ve nhiing hien tugng tidu eye cd thd xdy
ra khi dia phuong xay dyng ndng thdn mdi, gdm: 1) Thay ddi tdm 1^ san xuat
nhd ciia ngudi ddn (giai thich dugc 14,1% nhiing thay ddi trong tdm Iy e ng^

nhOng hien tugng tieu cue cua hg); 2) Thay ddi ddng thdi tdm ly sdn xudt nhd va
ndng luc can bd co sd (gidi thich dugc 22,4%); 3) Thay ddi ddng thdi tdm ly san
xuit nhd, ndng lyc can bd co sd vd tinh y lai ciia ngudi dan (gidi thich dugc
30,4%) vd 4) Thay ddi ddng thdi tdm Iy sdn xuit nhd, nang luc can bd eg sd,
tinh y lai cua ngudi ddn va danh gia ciia ngudi dan vl nhimg thay ddi trong ddi
sdng trong qud brinh xay dyng ndng thdn mdi (gidi thich dugc 32,8%). Xem xet
chilu hudng cac gid trj Beta cii* cdc biin cho thiy, khi d ngudi dan cd tdm ly
sdn xudt nhd va tinh y lai cdng rd thi bg cdng cd tam Iy e ngai vl nhttng hien
tugng tieu eye cd the xdy ra khi dja phuang triin khai dl an xdy dyng ndng thdn
mdi, ngugc lai, khi cdn bd dia phuang cang cd nang lye tdt, ddi sdng ciia ngudi

TAP CH(TAM L? HOC, Sd4 (217), 4 - 2017

21


dan ngay cang dugc cdi thien thi thdi do e ngai cila iigudi dan cang giam. TCt cac
kit qua nay, cd thi co cac phuong trinh tinh todn dl dy bdo nhung thay doi ctia
thai do e ngji nhiing hi?n tugng tiSu eye ciia ngudi dan, vi du, vdi md hinh 4,
chiing ta cd phuang trinh sau:
Thdi dd e ngai nhiing hi|n tugng ti6u cue cia ngudi dan = 0,665 + 0,198
(tdm ly sdn xudt nhd) - 0,265 (nang luc can bd) + 0,275 (tinh y lai) - 0,170
(ddnh gid cia ngudi dan vl nhttng thay ddi trong ddi sdng).
Trong md hinh ndy, nang Iuc can bg vd tinh y lai cila ngudi dan vao
chinh quyin la hai yiu td cd tac ddng manh nhit den thai dd e ngai cua hg ve
nhung hiSn tugng tieu cue cd thi xdy ra. Cd thi tito doan v l thai do e ngai ciia
ngudi dan nhu sau: vdi diiu kien cac yiu td khdc la khdng ddi, khi diim ciia
thang do tinh y lai tang I diim thi diem cua thdi do e ngai cd kha ndng tang
gdn 0,3 diim. Tuong tu nhu vdy, diim ctia thai do e ngai cd thi gidm gdn 0,3
diim khi diim ndng lyc cdn bg tang I diem.

Trong phep phan tich hii quy ndy thi tac ddng ciia 5 yiu td gdm f thttc
hgp tac vdi chinh quyin ciia ngudi ddn, quan hg con ngudi tai dia phuong, nhan
thttc cua ngudi dan ve ndng thdn mdi, ddnh gia eda ngudi ddn ve nhirng thay ddi
trong sdn xuit va trong boat ddng ciia chinh quyen, cac doan thi den thdi dd e
ngai cila ngudi dan vl nhimg hien tugng tieu eye cd thi xay ra da gidm di dang
kl (khdng cdn d muc cd y nghia thdng ke).
Nhu vdy, khi xdy dyng bien phdp nham gidm thieu thdi do e ngai ciia
ngudi dan ve nhttng hifn tugng tieu eye cd the xay ra khi dia phuang trien khai
de an xay dyng ndng thdn mdi can thay ddi bdn yeu td tdm \^ cd y nghia trong
md hinh hdi quy ndy Id giam tam Iy sdn xuat nhd, tang ndng lyc can bd co sd,
gidm tinh y Isii cua ngudi ddn vd tdng danh gid tich cue ciia ngudi ddn vl
nhiing thay ddi ddi sdng trong qud trinh xay dyng ndng thdn mdi.
Tdm lai, cd nhieu yiu to tam ly tdc ddng din thdi dd ciia ngudi ddn vl
nhung biSn tugng tieu eye ed thi xdy ra khi dia phuang triin khai dl dn xdy
dyng ndng thdn mdi va hanh dgng ciia hg khi tham gia dl an nay. Tuy nhien,
Uong thyc tg cugc sdng thudng cd nhiiu yiu td cung tac dgng din thdi dg vd
hdnh ddng ciia ngudi dan. Sy tdc ddng ddng thdi cua nhiiu yiu td khac nhau cd
dig Idm gidm thigu mttc do tdc ddng ciia mgt sd yiu td nao dd. Kit qud phdn tich
hdi quy bdi cho thiy, trong viec xay dyng cdc bien phap nhdm cdi thien thai do
vd hanh ddng tham gia xay dyng ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi ddn cin chu y mgt sd
yeu td gdm y thttc cua ngudi dan vl trdch nhidm hgp tac vdi chinh quyin trong
xdy dung va cdi thien nhung linh vyc khdc nhau cua cugc sdng ndng thdn; tdm
ly sdn xudt nhd; nang lyc cdn bd eg sd; nhan thuc cua ngudi dan vl ndng thdn

22

TAP CHI TAM L f HOC, S6'4 (217), 4 - 2017


mdi; tinh y lai cua ngudi dan vd ddnh gia ciia ngudi ddn ve nhOng thay ddi ddi

sdng trong qua trinh xay dyng ndng thdn mdi.
Chu thich
1. Nhiing so ligu dugc sil dung trong bai vilt dugc nit ra ttt kit qud khdo sdt thyc tiln
cua dl tdi cdp Bg Vien Hdn lam Khoa hgc xd hdi Viet Nam: "Mdt sd yiu Id tdrn^ lyi
cua ngudi ndng ddn dnh hirdng din qud trinh xdy dimg ndng than mdi ddng bdng
Bdc Bd'' (2013 - 2014) do PGS.TS. Le Thi Thanh Huong ldm chi nhiem, Vign Tdm
I^ hgc la CO quan chi tri.

TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, Sd 4 (217), 4 - 2017

23