Báo cáo chiến lược 2023 HSC
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Equities | Vietnam
Strategy Update
Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Nov-22: Foreign bottom fishing revives market
Nguyen Tuan Anh
Senior Analyst, Data Analytics
+84 28 3823-3299 Ext.160
▪ The VN Index recovered to 1,048.42, up 1.32% m/m, but still down 30% YTD. The
average daily trading volume also declined to VND11,675 billion, up 0.7% m/m,
yet 33.6% lower than the YTD average.
▪ Inflows were evident in most sectors, especially banks, retail, metal & mining,
capital markets, and real estate. The derivatives market received inflows with
trading volume 61% higher than last month, hitting a new all-time high.
▪ Foreign investors were net buyers in November deploying USD725 million, flipping
the net YTD cumulative total to USD680 million.
▪
Our 1,250 year-end VN Index target suggests potential upside of 19.2%.
HSC research highlights
Highlights this month include coverage initiation of MSB by Le Anh Tung (Solid bank
at a discount price; initiate at Buy, 10 November). MSB is a small/medium-sized bank
with a solid track record of profitability and improving performance in recent years with
a business model focusing on retail & SMEs. We initiate coverage on MSB with a Buy
rating and a TP of VND15,500, upside 26%.
In the sector report, Vietnam O&G: Ignore volatility, time for bottom fishing, 07
November, our Energy & Utilities team highlighted our positive view on Vietnam O&G,
given the backdrop of unresolved global supply constraints and rising energy demand.
In addition, mooted revisions to Vietnam’s petroleum law could be a catalyst for share
prices and long-term growth. Our undisputed top pick is GAS (upside 51%), while PVS,
PVD, PVT, and BSR are also great choices (upside >30.0%) at current levels.
Industrials analyst Che Thi Mai Trang highlighted in her sector report, China’s
reopening; VN air travel ready to take-off?, 15 November, what she sees as a Chinese
reopening theme that will be the key catalyst for aviation. The recent easing of Chinese
COVID-19 policy should be a boon for the Vietnamese tourism industry into FY23
onwards since China is Vietnam’s biggest source of international arrivals.
We also note a couple of rating adjustments in our coverage. Le Khanh Tung
downgraded his rating for BID to Add (from Buy) after recent share price strength,
though we also lift our TP 4% to VND40,500 (upside: 13%), following upward earnings
revisions. Bui Nguyen Cam Giang also downgraded MSN to Add and cut our target
price by 31% to VND114,2000 (upside 15.4%) due to what we see as a weaker
earnings outlook, with slower consumer demand impacting the top line as well as
higher interest expenses.
VN Index and daily trading volume from November 2020-2022
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Powered by FactSet RMS Partners
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
News and notable market events in November
Vietnam Markets:
Asian investors still on lookout for deals (Vietnam Investment Review, 30 November) – Having been the dominant players in Vietnam’s merger and
acquisition market for years, new activities from Japanese, South Korean, and Singaporean investors are demonstrating that interest in the fastgrowing market remain unchanged.
FDI inflows report some improvement on-month (Vietnam Investment Review, 29 November) – Total foreign direct investment inflows for JanuaryNovember have narrowed the gap with on-year performance by less than 5 per cent, instead of the two-digit drop seen in previous months.
HSX
HNX
0.2%
-0.6%
Upcom
-6.6%
YTD chg
-30.8%
-55.5%
-36.6%
1 year chg
-30.2%
-53.7%
-37.7%
Index
1 month chg
Turnover
Shares (mm)
909
Value (USDmm)
Market Cap (USDmm)
89
44
616
47
17
181,965
10,473
42,086
40
Foreign trading
Buy (USDmm)
1,908
THACO to invest $1 billion in an industrial park in Binh Duong (Vietnam Investment Review, 29 November) – The automaker Truong Hai Auto
Corporation (THACO) is mulling plans to invest in a mechanical supporting industrial park with the total investment capital of $1 billion in the southern
province of Binh Duong.
Sell (USDmm)
1,214
Korean expectations for deals in Vietnamese market (Vietnam Investment Review, 28 November) – Since Vietnam keeps moving forward with its
high economic growth rate, market potential, and developments in business sectors including IT, Vietnam is still an attractive investment destination
for foreign investors. However, with synchronised interest rate increases under way globally and depreciations of South Korean currency caused
by the recent global recession following the geopolitical uncertainty makes it difficult for South Korean businesses to predict their affairs, as well as
the profitability of their potential targets abroad.
Valuations (HSC Coverages)
Net (USDmm)
6
695
34
Foreign turnover
14.0%
2.7%
ETF Fund flows
1 month
Net flows (USD)
263.0
684.0
659.0
Flows/ assets
14.5%
37.8%
36.4%
2022
2023
2024
YTD
1 year
P/E
10.13
8.85
7.39
P/B
1.75
1.49
1.29
ROE
17.3%
16.9%
17.5%
1 month (%)
YTD (%)
1 year (%)
Sectors (composite):
Financials
8.5%
-18.7%
-16.0%
11.9%
-25.3%
-24.4%
6.5%
-5.8%
-3.3%
Foreign investors sign billion-dollar deals to invest in southeast (Vietnam Investment Review, 29 November) – Foreign investors committed to
investing billions of dollars in the southeast via signing memoranda of understanding (MoU) in petrochemicals, electronics, industrial park
infrastructure, urban areas, and tourism.
Materials
-0.8%
-43.4%
-45.1%
Industrials
-3.2%
-28.4%
-27.7%
Boosting international railway transport investment (Vietnam Investment Review, 27 November) – The initial successes of the railway container
transport network from Vietnam to Europe have provided a fulcrum inspiring the railway sector to increasingly engage with the international network.
Health Care
Real Estate
Consumer Staples
Utilities
Consumer Discretionary
Energy
Information Technology
0.5%
5.2%
6.1%
-7.7%
-17.1%
-14.0%
3.9%
-37.9%
-36.9%
-2.3%
-2.6%
-6.6%
1.3%
-16.4%
-15.5%
-10.1%
-60.3%
-53.0%
1 month (%)
YTD (%)
1 year (%)
0.24%
-30.84%
-30.23%
Singapore
5.18%
5.41%
6.28%
Malaysia
3.15%
-4.85%
-0.36%
Thailand
1.40%
-0.55%
Indonesia
-0.45%
6.68%
7.88%
Philippines
9.45%
-5.44%
-6.47%
US
5.93%
-4.81%
1.67%
UK
5.43%
2.60%
Japan
1.98%
-1.96%
1.04%
Germany
8.47%
-8.92%
-6.49%
Korea
6.19%
-16.72%
-14.48%
Taiwan
17.71%
HK
Communication Service
Regional Markets:
Vietnam
Strong GDP growth supports rebounding M&A market (Vietnam Investment Review, 24 November) – Vietnam's economy is expected to grow by 8
per cent this year and 6.5 per cent next year, creating a pedestal for investment and business activities.
VSMCamp and CSMOSummit discusses digital experience in sales and marketing (Vietnam Investment Review, 20 November) – As digital
transformation continues to profoundly impact every aspect of Vietnam's socioeconomic development, sales and marketing are no exception.
VinFast to file for an IPO in US in January 2023 (Vietnam Investment Review, 17 November) – VinFast, the electric vehicles (EV) manufacturer
subsidiary of Vingroup, is allegedly considering its planned initial public offering (IPO) in the US as soon as January 2023.
ASEAN approach underpins robust investment inflow (Vietnam Investment Review, 16 November) – Further facilitation of a more competitive
investment environment leveraged by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is helping Vietnam attract more funding from ASEAN
and its partners.
VN Index
ASEAN:
International:
5.69%
-18.88%
-15.94%
21.23%
-19.92%
-20.81%
China (Shng-A)
6.61%
-13.03%
-11.50%
Australia
5.41%
-1.21%
1.64%
India
3.68%
8.40%
9.59%
12.07%
-21.08%
-20.75%
MSCI Frontier
4.45%
-27.88%
-27.64%
MSCI Asia-Pac
12.61%
-19.02%
-18.40%
Benchmarks:
MSCI EM
www.hsc.com.vn
3.62%
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Market events – last 12 months vs. VN Index
Source: HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Vietnam stock market review
The VN Index rose this month to 1,048.42, up 1.32% m/m but still down 30% YTD. During the month, the VN Index reached its lowest point of the year at 873.78, the lowest level
since August 2020. The market continued to suffer selling pressure due to news of further tightening Fed monetary policy, rising interest rates worldwide, persistent inflation concerns,
the effects of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war.
Trading liquidity slightly improved in November 2022 compared to the previous month. The average daily turnover in November rose to VND11,675 billion, 0.7% higher than in
October yet 33.6% below the YTD average. We can see the average monthly turnover of all key sectors has been decreasing materially since November 2021. However, liquidity in
the derivatives market (VN30 futures) increased sharply in November to a new all-time record high level, up 61.2% m/m.
Foreign investors net buying was USD725 million in November 2022, the highest level since May 2018, flipping the net YTD cumulative total to USD680 million. ETF inflows to the
Vietnam market remained positive, totaling USD373.39 million for the month, the highest level since 2010, which is mainly attributed to the new Fubon ETF as well as iShares MSCI
Frontier 100 ETF. VFMVN Diamond ETF, E1VFVN30 ETF, and VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF all recorded net inflows while net withdrawals were evident for the Premia MSCI
Vietnam ETF.
While the market is facing short-term weakness and may take more time to recover, its valuation is very cheap for the region and compared to previous years. We retain our positive
view on the Vietnam equity market but recommend a more defensive, tactical stance in the short-term given the global impact of higher interest rates and tighter monetary conditions.
Our adjusted forecast for the VN Index for FY22 is 1,250, which implies FY22 and FY23 P/Es of 10.1x and 8.8x, respectively, while our coverage offers potential upside of 19.2%.
VN Index and daily trading volume
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Outperformers and underperformers in November
HSX
HNX
Top 10 gainers
Ticker
Top 10 losers
Price
Change
% Ticker
STG
39,450
12,550
46.7% SMC
CTF
25,800
2,750
BMP
61,000
6,355
FRT
81,800
CKG
Price
Top 10 gainers
Change
%
9,400
-7,350
-43.9%
11.9% TCD
6,510
-4,690
11.6% NHA
12,500
-8,500
8,500
11.6% DIG
17,700
27,900
2,536
10.0% KBC
CVT
45,850
3,850
VNM
78,500
EIB
Top 10 losers
Price
Change
Change
%
DHT
39,400
-100
-0.3% PVL
2,300
-2,400
-51.1%
-41.9%
HHC
87,800
-500
-0.6% L14
36,400
-35,900
-49.7%
-40.5%
BNA
19,700
-200
-1.0% APS
7,200
-6,300
-46.7%
-12,000
-40.4%
VC2
18,000
-200
-1.1% KLF
900
-700
-43.8%
17,500
-11,500
-39.7%
HTP
47,100
-900
-1.9% VGS
9,800
-6,700
-40.6%
9.2% VPH
4,500
-2,800
-38.4%
VC3
37,900
-1,300
-3.3% SDA
6,400
-4,300
-40.2%
6,200
8.6% BSI
18,000
-11,163
-38.3%
OCH
7,200
-300
-4.0% IDJ
7,700
-5,000
-39.4%
37,000
2,800
8.2% HBC
10,100
-6,250
-38.2%
INN
42,000
-2,100
-4.8% BCC
7,700
-4,900
-38.9%
MSH
36,950
2,750
8.0% LSS
6,070
-3,730
-38.1%
DNP
23,800
-1,400
-5.6% CEO
13,500
-8,200
-37.8%
SVC
112,200
7,300
7.0% NVT
7,480
-4,520
-37.7%
SLS
128,800
-8,042
-5.9% BII
2,000
-1,200
-37.5%
Top 10 active (by volume)
Ticker
Volume
Ticker
Top 10 active (by value)
% of total Ticker
Top 10 active (by volume)
VNDmn
% of total
5.4% EIB
17,735,429
7.3%
SHS
211,482,672
16.7% IDC
3,901,812
19.3%
VND
489,177,953
4.2% HPG
11,283,461
4.6%
PVS
152,331,293
12.0% PVS
3,458,035
17.1%
EIB
443,799,443
3.8% STB
7,538,760
3.1%
CEO
106,770,199
8.4% SHS
1,724,600
8.5%
STB
443,398,595
3.8% TCB
7,315,423
3.0%
IDC
85,878,065
6.8% CEO
1,597,936
7.9%
HAG
398,469,520
3.4% VND
6,498,143
2.7%
HUT
61,570,043
4.9% HUT
1,156,091
5.7%
SSI
378,751,646
3.2% SSI
6,392,024
2.6%
TNG
41,848,194
3.3% HTP
798,873
3.9%
MBB
350,418,454
3.0% DGC
6,368,008
2.6%
KLF
36,296,977
2.9% TNG
679,543
3.4%
SHB
305,108,584
2.6% MBB
6,114,797
2.5%
PVC
33,575,051
2.7% SCG
618,217
3.1%
VPB
297,434,933
2.5% DIG
5,181,369
2.1%
IDJ
30,239,613
2.4% PVC
575,548
2.8%
TCB
286,176,564
2.4% NVL
5,196,723
2.1%
MBS
28,947,058
2.3% MBS
421,582
2.1%
VNDmn
Ticker
Top 10 active by foreigners (sell)
% Ticker
Volume
Top 10 active (by value)
629,289,870
Top 10 active by foreigners (Buy)
% of total
Price
HPG
Ticker
VNDmn
% Ticker
% of total Ticker
Top 10 active by foreigners (Buy)
VNDmn
%
Ticker
VNDmn
Top 10 active by foreigners (sell)
VNDmn
%
9.0% PVS
55,486
1.6%
165,798
4.8% IDC
26,357
0.7%
20,242
58.4% TNG
4,223
0.6%
L14
6,962
2.6% VCS
2,803
2.2%
15.5%
TNG
5,462
0.8% PVI
2,490
7.2%
1,122,931
14.9%
SHS
4,973
0.3% VNC
2,031
86.0%
1,056,254
67.2%
VCS
4,417
3.4% EVS
2,017
3.6%
929,148
14.3%
HUT
3,796
0.3% HLD
1,935
8.3%
22.7% VNM
870,698
27.8%
BVS
3,110
4.4% MBS
1,713
0.4%
16.5% NVL
809,170
15.6%
MBS
2,293
0.5% THD
1,225
14.9%
VNM
1,752,325
56.0% EIB
3,359,310
18.9%
IDC
351,256
FUEVFVND
1,387,029
88.2% HPG
2,894,665
25.7%
PVS
MSN
1,381,014
33.0% MBB
1,257,330
20.6%
PVI
MBB
1,258,853
20.6% VHM
1,170,232
31.3%
HPG
1,204,440
10.7% TCB
1,134,947
TCB
1,134,972
15.5% STB
DGC
955,530
15.0% FUEVFVND
VCB
925,078
50.4% VND
VHM
847,274
MWG
746,254
www.hsc.com.vn
% Ticker
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Sector insights
Industry groups (using Bloomberg definitions) in Vietnam across all exchanges which attracted capital flows in November 2022 include Banks, Metals & Mining, Capital Markets,
Real Estate Management & Development, Machinery, Beverages, Electrical Equipment, and Trading Companies & Distributors while outflows were seen in other sectors, specifically
in Energy Equipment & Services, Electronic Equipment, Chemicals, Metals & Mining, Airlines, Transportation Infrastructure, Building Products, and Electric Utilities.
Average monthly traded value (VNDbn)
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
% m /m
Top industries by traded value
Banks
231,354
299,158
305,495
184,057
194,690
132,421
101,626
112,823
115,785
85,136
105,591
144,515
36.9%
Metals & Mining
106,019
91,495
117,247
157,568
100,263
98,683
78,708
76,395
107,146
83,789
68,345
81,530
19.3%
Capital Markets
186,409
134,244
94,041
101,883
97,533
82,059
78,214
99,462
117,312
82,454
66,341
76,425
15.2%
Energy Equipment & Services
76,672
121,354
129,401
152,928
86,863
71,773
139,122
63,508
140,032
149,989
113,269
71,384
-37.0%
Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
58,556
62,747
51,688
94,722
140,195
79,136
89,800
34,225
52,988
90,652
76,420
55,884
-26.9%
Specialty Retail
36,519
36,363
53,832
52,811
76,419
46,180
62,074
47,005
67,389
64,226
48,702
42,492
-12.8%
114,864
109,137
81,944
94,551
69,276
44,580
36,044
31,364
40,048
36,971
28,251
38,773
37.2%
IT Services
50,221
42,762
32,896
91,993
148,716
84,123
78,392
45,897
53,792
41,073
33,270
32,536
-2.2%
Food Products
77,527
70,618
46,539
68,041
53,519
41,732
45,795
45,888
54,063
49,050
33,413
30,712
-8.1%
Electrical Equipment
87,514
128,678
79,542
76,335
83,399
41,631
34,203
30,305
41,336
30,123
25,939
29,288
12.9%
Chemicals
72,092
54,336
53,479
105,914
83,239
51,541
52,983
33,333
41,174
47,440
34,740
28,593
-17.7%
Airlines
80,176
68,617
142,719
104,762
67,524
53,680
55,571
42,118
48,376
41,385
21,626
18,871
-12.7%
Construction & Engineering
75,630
75,400
48,268
58,808
47,341
29,571
28,708
26,310
29,891
28,699
17,781
18,348
3.2%
Transportation Infrastructure
59,033
62,549
63,584
64,926
50,099
45,867
50,908
28,585
39,093
31,215
23,671
16,808
-29.0%
Gas Utilities
29,811
38,174
42,912
33,135
29,669
27,691
76,778
28,313
22,323
16,128
15,146
15,171
0.2%
Machinery
93,456
72,344
37,752
40,363
21,801
14,697
12,156
12,317
11,774
12,899
10,129
14,006
38.3%
Insurance
18,633
13,910
14,533
26,246
48,887
35,820
31,498
21,210
23,943
27,639
14,486
12,991
-10.3%
Industrial Conglomerates
48,744
41,625
35,028
60,004
40,067
34,334
37,433
22,616
29,373
23,572
12,368
11,636
-5.9%
Independent Pow er and Renew able Electricity Producers48,534
40,613
37,783
22,801
18,726
16,148
36,866
17,989
20,765
23,237
11,174
9,850
-11.8%
12.2%
Real Estate Management & Development
Beverages
5,749
6,409
7,552
6,320
10,670
7,139
5,926
6,698
7,139
7,420
8,587
9,631
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
14,379
14,787
22,718
26,653
29,016
17,917
23,884
13,108
18,447
12,613
9,435
9,285
-1.6%
Building Products
33,040
17,760
18,729
25,883
19,098
11,475
17,195
14,777
18,290
17,932
14,429
8,738
-39.4%
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
14,535
15,117
34,329
27,770
17,294
12,425
10,843
5,913
14,709
9,166
5,976
5,219
-12.7%
Trading Companies & Distributors
18,940
20,941
17,138
30,055
22,044
10,050
6,740
6,229
8,999
7,276
4,002
5,185
29.6%
Electric Utilities
13,611
11,252
5,012
5,467
5,693
3,372
11,673
5,822
5,711
11,594
6,313
4,346
-31.2%
Note: Industries are based on Bloomberg definitions.
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
HSC top stock picks
Changes in the last 30 days:
VTB, VCB, & MSN removed
Ticker
EPS growth
P/E
Div yield
HSC
Closing
Target
Upside /
Mkt cap
rating
price
price
downside
(USDmn)
21A
22F
23F
24F
21A
22F
23F
24F
21A
22F
23F
24F
Financials: Banks
ACB
Buy
22,100
31,400
42.1%
3,029
24.7%
37.3%
12.8%
12.9%
7.9
5.8
5.1
4.5
-
-
-
'N/a
MBB
Buy
17,400
25,500
46.6%
3,201
44.8%
41.6%
13.0%
15.4%
6.5
4.6
4.1
3.5
-
-
-
'N/a
STB
Buy
20,000
26,200
31.0%
1,530
24.4%
37.1%
48.2%
54.1%
10.8
7.9
5.3
3.5
-
-
-
'N/a
TCB
Buy
25,900
38,600
49.0%
3,770
46.2%
16.4%
12.3%
17.6%
5.0
4.3
3.9
3.3
-
-
-
'N/a
Real Estate: Developers
VRE
Buy
30,550
39,100
28.0%
2,817
-44.8%
100.3%
26.2%
8.8%
52.8
26.4
20.9
19.2
-
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
VGC
Buy
36,650
66,000
80.1%
667
103.7%
57.7%
-15.0%
26.3%
13.4
8.5
10.0
7.9
3.0%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
PHR
Add
42,600
80,400
88.7%
234
-55.9%
101.0%
-4.6%
10.8%
12.1
6.0
6.3
5.7
10.6%
9.4%
9.4%
'N/a
Industrials: Transportation
SCS
Add
71,000
84,300
18.7%
270
22.9%
-39.2%
5.2%
17.4%
6.8
11.2
10.6
9.1
4.2%
7.0%
7.0%
7.0%
VEA
Buy
39,400
52,500
33.2%
2,124
3.6%
20.2%
6.6%
4.3%
9.1
7.6
7.1
6.8
11.4%
10.9%
13.1%
13.9%
ACV
Buy
84,500
91,000
7.7%
7,465
-70.9%
1363.2%
12.6%
10.0%
383.4
26.2
23.3
21.2
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
GMD
Add
47,400
55,200
16.5%
580
62.4%
59.6%
8.2%
19.0%
23.3
14.6
13.5
11.4
3.0%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
Industrials: Materials - Chemicals
DCM
Buy
29,100
40,800
40.2%
625
174.7%
124.1%
-39.6%
-6.0%
8.4
3.8
6.2
6.6
6.2%
10.3%
6.9%
6.2%
DPM
Buy
40,900
61,200
49.6%
649
350.9%
77.9%
-39.5%
-24.0%
5.1
2.9
4.8
6.3
8.6%
12.2%
12.2%
8.6%
68,000
14.7%
197
-59.0%
171.0%
1.8%
9.7%
22.6
8.4
8.2
7.5
4.4%
11.8%
11.8%
12.6%
Industrials: Metals and Capital Goods
BMP
Add
59,300
Consumer Staples - F&B, Tobacco
SAB
Buy
180,000
228,500
26.9%
4,681
-22.9%
51.1%
19.8%
21.2%
32.7
21.7
18.1
14.9
1.9%
1.9%
2.2%
2.8%
VHC
Buy
68,000
135,000
98.5%
502
45.4%
92.7%
9.9%
7.8%
11.8
6.1
5.6
5.2
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
QNS
Buy
37,400
56,100
50.0%
457
19.4%
5.1%
17.0%
9.6%
9.1
8.6
7.4
6.7
6.7%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
Consumer Discretionary
MWG
Buy
44,100
66,900
51.7%
2,619
17.0%
-9.5%
41.9%
22.1%
13.1
14.4
10.2
8.3
2.3%
2.3%
3.4%
4.5%
PNJ
Buy
113,500
131,900
16.2%
1,133
-3.3%
65.8%
15.0%
16.4%
27.3
16.5
14.3
12.3
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
3,321
21.8%
29.0%
21.8%
25.0%
18.8
14.6
12.0
9.6
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
Technology, Communications & Internet: Information Technology
FPT
Buy
74,600
108,200
45.0%
Energy & Utilities
GEG
Buy
12,350
27,600
123.5%
161
-9.5%
4.5%
19.0%
12.9%
13.3
12.7
10.7
9.4
0.0%
4.9%
6.5%
8.1%
BSR
Buy
14,800
28,000
89.2%
1,862
338.2%
122.1%
-27.7%
11.7%
6.8
3.1
4.3
3.8
2.0%
6.8%
10.1%
10.1%
GAS
Buy
110,200
170,000
54.3%
8,558
10.4%
86.1%
-13.8%
19.8%
24.3
13.1
15.2
12.7
2.8%
3.6%
4.5%
4.5%
PVT
Buy
20,100
27,000
34.3%
264
-7.9%
36.5%
14.9%
11.1%
9.9
7.2
6.3
5.7
5.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
www.hsc.com.vn
Page 8
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
HSC coverage universe: Key data and multiples, based on aggregates
Total HSC coverage list upside is 45.9%
Valuation
P/E
20A
16.88
21A
12.09
P/B
2.47
2.02
1.75
1.49
1.29
EPS growth
0.0%
3.2%
23.5%
12.2%
18.7%
14.6%
16.7%
17.3%
16.9%
17.5%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.3%
2.4%
ROE
Dividend yield
Financials: Banks
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
15.56
2.54
11.5%
18.8%
0.7%
21A
12.21
2.15
27.8%
19.8%
1.0%
22F
9.15
1.80
33.5%
21.6%
0.9%
Financials: Insurance
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
22.51
1.79
8.1%
1.7%
21A
19.11
1.70
17.8%
9.1%
1.9%
22F
16.17
1.60
18.2%
10.2%
2.1%
Real Estate: Real Estate Development
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
12.57
1.90
25.4%
0.3%
21A
16.73
1.77
7.0%
22.9%
1.7%
22F
12.44
1.60
11.1%
16.1%
2.7%
22F
10.13
Upside:
21%
23F
8.02
1.42
13.7%
19.9%
0.9%
24F
6.64
1.21
20.9%
19.7%
0.9%
Upside:
31%
23F
13.90
1.49
16.3%
11.1%
2.1%
24F
11.99
1.37
15.9%
11.9%
2.1%
Upside:
64%
23F
10.24
1.43
22.8%
17.1%
2.7%
24F
9.04
1.28
14.0%
16.7%
2.8%
23F
8.85
24F
7.39
Energy & Utilities: Energy - Oil & Gas
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
19.32
3.57
-58.7%
11.3%
2.7%
21A
30.73
3.36
59.7%
16.7%
2.7%
22F
10.92
2.87
65.6%
27.8%
4.1%
Energy & Utilities: Utilities - Electricity
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
12.00
1.40
12.1%
1.9%
21A
11.59
1.27
13.6%
13.0%
1.6%
22F
11.25
1.26
0.7%
12.0%
3.8%
Energy & Utilities: Utilities - Gas
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
15.20
1.55
3.4%
8.2%
21A
12.93
1.33
274.0%
11.1%
3.3%
22F
23.45
1.47
-35.4%
6.3%
4.1%
Upside:
59%
23F
12.93
2.66
4.5%
20.8%
5.4%
24F
10.80
2.40
18.9%
22.5%
5.5%
Upside:
67%
23F
11.37
1.17
0.2%
11.6%
4.6%
24F
10.40
1.10
10.3%
11.9%
4.9%
Upside:
87%
23F
12.05
1.39
95.1%
11.9%
4.2%
24F
11.02
1.32
9.3%
12.3%
5.0%
www.hsc.com.vn
Industrials: Capital Goods
Upside:
15%
23F
8.21
2.00
1.8%
24.3%
11.8%
24F
7.49
1.98
9.7%
26.6%
12.6%
Upside:
34%
22F
22.12
4.38
-1.2%
22.2%
2.7%
23F
17.53
3.97
25.8%
24.7%
2.9%
24F
14.74
3.58
19.9%
26.2%
3.0%
Consumer: Consumer Discretionary - Durables & Apparel
Upside
21%
23F
13.68
2.46
14.5%
20.8%
1.8%
24F
11.74
2.10
16.7%
20.7%
1.9%
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
9.29
1.96
23.6%
21.2%
10.7%
21A
22.64
2.12
-59.0%
9.0%
4.4%
22F
8.36
1.98
171.0%
24.5%
11.8%
Consumer: Consumer Staples - F&B, Tobacco
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
49.59
6.40
22.5%
3.1%
20A
23.67
4.36
20.8%
1.6%
21A
20.77
4.76
176.7%
28.7%
2.6%
21A
25.38
3.85
-3.0%
17.5%
1.8%
22F
15.68
2.88
59.2%
22.8%
1.8%
Page 9
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Real Estate: Construction & Construction Materials
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
24.71
2.25
8.6%
3.8%
21A
26.24
2.04
77.0%
15.7%
3.0%
22F
17.50
1.74
55.9%
21.6%
3.5%
Infrastructure
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
13.50
0.72
5.1%
7.0%
21A
N/a
0.71
-230.8%
-6.9%
0.0%
22F
4.32
0.64
339.1%
16.0%
0.0%
Conglomerates
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
46.51
3.26
7.0%
FALSE
21A
N/a
2.65
-194.6%
-5.9%
-
22F
43.75
2.46
212.4%
5.8%
-
Upside:
78%
23F
12.09
1.57
13.6%
16.2%
3.5%
24F
7.95
1.37
51.6%
18.4%
4.2%
Upside:
78%
23F
21.29
0.65
-79.7%
3.0%
7.0%
24F
8.80
0.64
142.0%
7.3%
7.0%
Upside:
26%
23F
36.11
2.30
21.2%
6.6%
-
24F
26.99
2.12
33.8%
8.2%
FALSE
Industrials: Transportation
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
74.21
3.90
2.0%
3.1%
21A
244.37
4.92
-40.2%
-18.3%
2.5%
22F
19.22
3.21
865.3%
40.3%
2.9%
Industrials: Materials - Chemicals
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
21.48
2.04
9.8%
3.1%
21A
6.53
1.66
242.8%
28.5%
7.2%
22F
3.69
1.29
85.9%
42.2%
10.3%
Industrials: Materials - Industrial Metals
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
4.57
1.01
24.5%
2.6%
21A
2.29
0.87
108.5%
46.4%
2.7%
22F
6.99
0.99
-66.3%
15.6%
0.0%
Upside:
12%
23F
17.21
2.93
14.9%
21.2%
3.3%
24F
17.27
2.62
18.9%
17.0%
3.4%
Upside:
41%
23F
5.66
1.17
-35.3%
21.9%
8.8%
24F
6.37
1.07
-11.2%
17.4%
6.9%
Upside:
51%
23F
5.81
0.85
19.6%
15.9%
2.6%
24F
4.85
0.74
20.2%
16.6%
2.6%
www.hsc.com.vn
Consumer: Consumer Discretionary - Retailing
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
49.75
1.91
25.4%
1.2%
21A
13.11
1.97
193.3%
28.7%
2.1%
22F
13.75
2.87
-4.9%
23.4%
2.1%
Upside:
56%
23F
9.90
2.40
38.4%
26.9%
3.2%
24F
8.20
2.02
20.7%
27.1%
4.2%
Technology, Communications & Internet: Information Technology
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
20A
22.90
5.15
23.8%
1.1%
21A
18.79
4.54
21.8%
25.7%
2.8%
22F
14.57
4.20
29.0%
30.0%
2.7%
23F
11.96
3.73
21.8%
33.2%
2.7%
Health Care
P/E
P/B
EPS growth
ROE
Dividend yield
45%
24F
9.57
3.22
25.0%
36.2%
2.7%
15%
20A
16.09
2.84
19.2%
0.9%
21A
12.84
2.39
26.2%
20.3%
0.8%
22F
12.31
1.43
4.1%
14.3%
0.7%
23F
10.52
1.28
17.3%
12.7%
0.7%
24F
7.91
1.12
35.6%
14.8%
0.7%
Page 10
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
HSC coverage universe: Key data and multiples, stock-specific
Ticker
Company
HSC
HSC
Closing
Target
Upside /
Mkt cap
3M avg daily
rating
analyst
price
price
downside
(USDmn)
vol (USDmn)
28.2%
50,838
6.44
Financials: Banks
Exch
FOL room
FOL
limit
(%)
(USDmn)
EPS
21A
22F
EPS growth
23F
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
Div yield
ROAE
21A
22F
23F
21A
22F
23F
21A
22F
23F
21A
22F
23F
21A
22F
23F
Ticker
34.1%
28.2%
14.1%
8.81
6.77
5.92
1.53
1.27
1.03
2.12%
1.96%
1.96%
20.5%
21.1%
19.5%
Financials: Banks
ACB
Asia Commercial Bank
Buy
Le Anh Tung, CFA
22,100
31,400
42.1%
3,015
4.39
HSX
30.0%
0%
0
2,799
3,842
4,334
24.7%
37.3%
12.8%
7.90
5.75
5.10
1.66
1.29
1.03
-
-
-
23.9%
25.6%
22.8%
BID
Bank for Inv't & Dev't of VN
Add
Le Khanh Tung
41,100
40,500
(1.46%)
6,676
2.42
HSX
30.0%
13.0%
867
2,090
3,501
4,292
51.1%
67.5%
22.6%
19.7
11.7
9.58
2.50
2.13
1.68
1.95%
1.95%
1.95%
13.2%
19.6%
19.5%
BID
CTG
VietinBank
Buy
Pham Lien Ha, CFA
27,250
33,000
21.1%
5,289
6.30
HSX
30.0%
3.08%
163
2,932
3,482
4,034
2.69%
18.8%
15.9%
9.30
7.83
6.76
1.41
1.27
1.13
2.94%
2.94%
2.94%
15.8%
17.1%
17.8%
CTG
HDB
HD Bank
Buy
Pham Lien Ha, CFA
15,550
23,900
53.7%
1,580
2.90
HSX
18.0%
0.33%
5.21
2,431
3,082
3,615
13.9%
26.8%
17.3%
6.40
5.05
4.30
1.33
1.06
0.85
-
-
-
23.3%
23.6%
22.0%
HDB
LPB
LienViet Post Bank
Buy
Le Anh Tung, CFA
11,450
13,391
17.0%
800
5.48
HSX
5.00%
0
1,857
2,313
2,290
54.2%
24.5%
(0.97%)
6.17
4.95
5.00
0.94
0.84
0.72
-
-
-
18.5%
21.2%
17.4%
LPB
MBB
Military Commercial Bank
Buy
Le Anh Tung, CFA
17,400
25,500
46.6%
3,186
10.5
HSX
23.2%
0%
0
2,668
3,778
4,268
44.8%
41.6%
13.0%
6.52
4.61
4.08
1.32
1.04
0.83
-
-
-
23.6%
26.5%
23.7%
MBB
MSB
Maritime Comm. JSB
Buy
Le Anh Tung, CFA
13,000
15,500
19.2%
1,043
2.73
HSX
30.0%
0.01%
0.10
2,032
2,437
2,543
101%
19.9%
4.33%
6.40
5.33
5.11
1.17
0.96
0.81
-
-
-
20.7%
19.8%
17.2%
MSB
OCB
Orient Commercial JSB
Buy
Le Anh Tung, CFA
15,300
17,300
13.1%
846
1.32
HSX
30.0%
0.51%
4.32
3,190
2,547
2,798
19.4%
(20.1%)
9.84%
4.80
6.01
5.47
0.96
0.83
0.72
-
-
-
22.5%
14.9%
14.2%
OCB
STB
Sacombank
Buy
Le Khanh Tung
20,000
26,200
31.0%
1,523
15.5
HSX
30.0%
9.53%
145
1,850
2,535
3,756
24.4%
37.1%
48.2%
10.8
7.89
5.32
1.10
0.98
0.84
-
-
-
10.8%
13.1%
17.0%
STB
TCB
TechcomBank
Buy
Pham Lien Ha, CFA
25,900
38,600
49.0%
3,752
11.6
HSX
22.5%
0%
0
5,146
5,989
6,725
46.2%
16.4%
12.3%
5.03
4.32
3.85
0.98
0.80
0.66
-
-
-
21.7%
20.4%
18.8%
TCB
TPB
Tien Phong Comm. Bank
Buy
Le Khanh Tung
22,000
29,000
31.8%
1,405
4.82
HSX
29.9%
0%
0
3,275
3,693
4,320
26.5%
12.8%
17.0%
6.72
5.96
5.09
1.34
1.11
0.91
-
-
-
22.6%
20.4%
19.7%
TPB
VCB
VietcomBank
Buy
Pham Lien Ha, CFA
81,000
84,000
3.70%
15,453
4.54
HSX
30.0%
6.41%
991
4,632
5,719
6,469
18.8%
23.5%
13.1%
17.5
14.2
12.5
3.52
2.96
2.25
1.48%
0.99%
0.99%
21.6%
22.7%
20.6%
VCB
VIB
Vietnam International Bank
Buy
Le Khanh Tung
20,250
26,500
30.9%
1,715
4.61
HSX
20.5%
0%
0
3,057
3,731
4,456
38.1%
22.0%
19.4%
6.62
5.43
4.54
1.75
1.33
1.05
-
30.3%
28.0%
25.9%
VPB
Vietnam Prosperity Bank
Buy
Pham Lien Ha, CFA
16,800
23,000
36.9%
4,555
13.1
HSX
17.6%
0%
0
1,764
2,940
2,716
11.5%
66.7%
(7.64%)
9.52
5.71
6.19
1.43
1.14
0.95
-
-
-
17.9%
22.4%
16.8%
VPB
31.5%
1,453
2.54
17.8%
18.2%
16.3%
19.1
16.2
13.9
1.70
1.60
1.49
1.85%
2.06%
2.06%
9.13%
10.2%
11.1%
Financials: Insurance
31.5%
1,453
2.54
17.8%
18.2%
16.3%
19.1
16.2
13.9
1.70
1.60
1.49
1.85%
2.06%
2.06%
9.13%
10.2%
11.1%
67.1%
14,473
5.86
54.3%
24.3%
25.9%
14.5
11.0
9.26
1.48
1.36
1.22
4.21%
3.97%
3.97%
15.1%
15.1%
16.3%
BVH
Real Estate: Real Estate
Development
CRE
Financials: Insurance
BVH
Bao Viet Holdings
Add
Pham Lien Ha, CFA
48,450
63,700
Real Estate: Real Estate Development
HSX
49.0%
0%
22.6%
328
2,535
2,996
3,486
-
-
ACB
VIB
CRE
Century Land JSC
Buy
Pham Ngoc Trung
11,100
19,877
79.1%
153
0.09
HSX
49.0%
47.8%
73.4
2,159
1,976
2,649
31.8%
(8.50%)
34.0%
5.14
5.62
4.19
1.11
0.98
0.84
-
-
-
16.9%
18.6%
21.6%
DXG
Dat Xanh Group JSC
Add
Pham Ngoc Trung
12,800
19,800
54.7%
314
8.20
HSX
50.0%
23.0%
72.2
2,150
1,564
1,258
362%
(27.3%)
(19.5%)
5.95
8.18
10.2
0.87
0.80
0.79
-
-
-
15.5%
10.1%
7.70%
KBC
Kinh Bac City Development
Buy
Pham Ngoc Trung
21,150
27,400
29.6%
656
8.69
HSX
49.0%
33.7%
221
1,584
3,261
5,980
232%
106%
83.4%
13.4
6.49
3.54
0.87
0.91
0.72
-
-
-
6.64%
15.1%
22.7%
KBC
KDH
Khang Dien House
Buy
Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA
27,400
31,500
15.0%
793
4.50
HSX
49.0%
17.5%
139
1,855
2,067
1,954
6.82%
11.4%
(5.44%)
14.8
13.3
14.0
1.90
1.69
1.52
0%
0%
0%
13.6%
12.9%
11.4%
KDH
NLG
Nam Long Investment Corp
Buy
Pham Ngoc Trung
28,500
41,700
46.3%
441
3.74
HSX
50.0%
9.55%
42.1
3,167
2,081
3,778
(3.30%)
(34.3%)
81.6%
9.00
13.7
7.54
1.22
1.17
1.05
3.51%
3.51%
3.51%
14.7%
8.73%
14.7%
NVL
Novaland Group
Reduce
Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA
23,350
73,100
213%
1,839
16.3
HSX
49.0%
43.7%
804
2,078
2,003
2,366
(47.7%)
(3.63%)
18.2%
11.2
11.7
9.87
1.29
1.16
1.04
-
-
-
12.1%
10.5%
11.1%
NVL
PHR
Phuoc Hoa Rubber JSC
Add
Pham Ngoc Trung
42,600
80,400
88.7%
233
1.48
HSX
49.0%
37.6%
87.7
3,524
7,083
6,758
(55.9%)
101%
(4.59%)
12.1
6.01
6.30
1.93
1.70
1.54
10.6%
9.39%
9.39%
15.4%
30.1%
25.7%
PHR
VHM
Vinhomes
Buy
Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA
54,500
81,600
49.7%
7,241
7.64
HSX
49.0%
26.9%
1,944
9,076
6,687
7,973
7.29%
(26.3%)
19.2%
6.01
8.15
6.84
1.85
1.59
1.36
2.75%
3.67%
3.67%
36.4%
21.0%
21.5%
VHM
VRE
Vincom Retail
Buy
Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA
30,550
39,100
28.0%
2,804
2.15
HSX
49.0%
17.2%
481
578
1,159
1,463
(44.8%)
100%
26.2%
52.8
26.4
20.9
2.27
2.24
2.17
-
3.27%
3.27%
4.39%
8.55%
10.6%
72.6%
768
1.80
5.51%
51.0%
90.4%
60.6
41.6
17.6
1.32
1.14
1.04
2.93%
2.05%
2.05%
9.19%
12.7%
9.90%
Real Estate: Construction & Construction Materials
CTD
Coteccons Construction JSC
VGC
Viglacera
HCMC Infrastructure Inv.
Vingroup
VRE
Real Estate: Construction
& Construction Materials
CTD
Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA
35,000
57,800
65.1%
104
1.22
HSX
49.0%
0.27%
0.28
325
469
1,388
(92.7%)
44.4%
196%
108
74.6
25.2
0.32
0.31
0.31
2.85%
0%
0%
0.29%
0.42%
1.24%
Buy
Pham Ngoc Trung
36,650
66,000
80.1%
664
2.37
HSX
49.0%
43.4%
288
2,729
4,303
3,656
104%
57.7%
(15.0%)
13.4
8.52
10.0
2.32
1.97
1.76
3.00%
4.09%
4.09%
18.1%
25.0%
18.6%
VGC
77.7%
146
4.03
(231%)
339%
(79.7%)
0
4.32
21.3
0.71
0.64
0.65
0%
0%
6.97%
(6.91%)
16.0%
3.04%
Infrastructure
Add
Pham Ngoc Trung
14,350
25,500
77.7%
146
4.03
HSX
49.0%
42.2%
61.7
(1,391)
3,325
674
(231%)
339%
(79.7%)
0
4.32
21.3
0.71
0.64
0.65
0%
0%
6.97%
(6.91%)
16.0%
3.04%
CII
25.6%
8,870
4.30
(195%)
212%
21.2%
0
43.7
36.1
2.65
2.46
2.30
0%
0%
0%
(5.93%)
5.79%
6.59%
Conglomerates
25.6%
8,870
4.30
(195%)
212%
21.2%
0
43.7
36.1
2.65
2.46
2.30
-
-
-
(5.93%)
5.79%
6.59%
55.8%
11,399
5.04
49.5%
(76.5%)
115%
79.7
9.24
9.76
1.59
1.41
1.30
3.23%
4.02%
5.34%
11.1%
16.9%
14.4%
VIC
Energy & Utilities: Energy Oil & Gas
Conglomerates
VIC
NLG
Hold
Infrastructure
CII
DXG
Buy
Ho Thi Kieu Trang, CFA
69,600
87,400
Energy & Utilities: Energy - Oil & Gas
HSX
49.0%
36.0%
3,195
(1,416)
1,591
1,928
BSR
Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical
Buy
Nguyen Vinh, CFA
14,800
28,000
89.2%
1,853
5.89
UPCoM
78.7%
7.62%
141
2,166
4,811
3,480
338%
122%
(27.7%)
6.83
3.08
4.25
1.22
0.89
0.77
2.03%
6.76%
10.1%
19.6%
33.5%
19.5%
BSR
GAS
PetroVietnam Gas
Buy
Nguyen Vinh, CFA
110,200
170,000
54.3%
8,518
1.87
HSX
49.0%
46.0%
3,921
4,531
8,433
7,269
10.4%
86.1%
(13.8%)
24.3
13.1
15.2
4.13
3.54
3.30
2.78%
3.63%
4.54%
17.4%
29.2%
22.5%
GAS
PVD
PetroVietnam Drill. & Well
Buy
Nguyen Vinh, CFA
15,800
23,000
45.6%
355
7.86
HSX
49.0%
33.1%
118
46.4
(256)
1,192
(89.5%)
(651%)
566%
341
0
13.3
0.49
0.65
0.62
0%
0%
0%
0.14%
(0.92%)
4.80%
PVD
PVS
PetroVietnam Tech'l Services
Buy
Nguyen Vinh, CFA
21,200
33,000
55.7%
409
7.88
HNX
49.0%
34.4%
141
1,258
1,561
2,150
(3.66%)
24.1%
37.7%
16.9
13.6
9.86
0.86
0.83
0.80
5.47%
4.72%
7.08%
5.02%
6.22%
8.26%
PVS
PVT
PetroVietnam Transport
Buy
Nguyen Vinh, CFA
20,100
27,000
34.3%
263
1.69
HSX
49.0%
33.6%
88.2
2,038
2,782
3,196
(7.88%)
36.5%
14.9%
9.86
7.23
6.29
1.25
1.13
1.00
5.88%
4.98%
4.98%
13.1%
16.4%
16.9%
81.1%
3,372
2.20
11.4%
(4.46%)
4.09%
10.9
11.1
10.8
1.21
1.18
1.11
1.41%
3.59%
4.85%
13.1%
11.4%
11.2%
GEG
PC1
Gialai Electricity
Power Construction
Buy
Buy
Truong Thu My
Truong Thu My
12,350
19,000
27,600
34,617
123%
82.2%
161
208
0.58
2.09
HSX
HSX
49.0%
49.0%
14.8%
44.5%
23.8
92.4
931
2,741
973
1,933
1,158
2,009
(9.50%)
7.72%
4.51%
(29.5%)
19.0%
3.96%
13.3
6.93
12.7
9.83
10.7
9.46
1.11
1.09
1.01
1.07
0.97
0.99
0%
-
4.86%
0%
6.48%
2.75%
8.79%
16.0%
8.58%
11.4%
PVT
Energy & Utilities: Utilities Electricity
9.30%
GEG
10.9%
PC1
PGV
Power Generation Joint Stock Corp. 3
Buy
Truong Thu My
18,500
40,800
121%
839
0.01
HSX
49.0%
50.0%
420
2,823
2,240
2,270
69.1%
(20.6%)
1.34%
6.55
8.26
8.15
1.22
1.19
1.15
2.70%
9.19%
9.73%
19.6%
14.6%
14.3%
PGV
POW
PetroVietnam Power
Buy
Truong Thu My
11,650
19,200
64.8%
1,102
5.99
HSX
49.0%
45.3%
499
760
836
765
(24.8%)
10.1%
(8.55%)
15.3
13.9
15.2
0.92
0.93
0.90
2.58%
2.58%
2.58%
6.11%
6.62%
5.98%
POW
REE
Refrigeration Electrical Eng.
Add
Truong Thu My
74,000
84,700
14.5%
1,062
2.33
HSX
49.0%
0%
0
6,003
6,797
7,119
14.3%
13.2%
4.74%
12.3
10.9
10.4
1.72
1.73
1.54
0.37%
1.35%
2.70%
15.0%
16.0%
15.7%
REE
102%
1,902
0.96
418%
(8.20%)
52.0%
13.2
18.3
12.1
1.14
1.22
1.16
2.03%
4.17%
4.47%
9.30%
7.06%
9.85%
Energy & Utilities: Utilities Gas
Buy
Buy
Truong Thu My
Truong Thu My
8,200
29,500
18,550
52,300
126%
77.3%
360
1,542
0.36
1.56
UPCoM
HSX
6.62%
20.0%
0.52%
2.70%
1.87
41.6
597
2,316
810
1,111
669
2,458
650%
186%
35.6%
(52.1%)
(17.3%)
121%
13.7
12.7
10.1
26.6
12.3
12.0
0.85
1.44
0.82
1.62
0.80
1.52
0%
4.07%
4.27%
4.07%
4.88%
4.07%
6.34%
12.3%
8.22%
5.90%
6.61%
13.1%
OIL
PLX
Energy & Utilities: Utilities - Electricity
Energy & Utilities: Utilities - Gas
OIL
PLX
PetroVietnam Oil Corp.
VN National Petroleum Gp.
www.hsc.com.vn
Page 11
Document downloaded by Thien Vd (HSC)
Please refer to the disclosures of potential conflict of interest and the disclaimer at the end of this report
Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Ticker Company
Industrials: Transportation
ACV
Airports Corp. of Vietnam
HSC
HSC
Closing
Target
Upside /
Mkt cap
Avg daily
rating
analyst
price
price
(USDmn)
11,818
7,430
vol (USDmn)
0.72
0.44
Exch
FOL room
FOL
Vo Thi Ngoc Han, CFA
84,500
91,000
UPCoM
49.0%
45.2%
3,361
220
3,225
3,630
20,450
25,000
22.2%
98.1
0.76
HSX
49.0%
41.4%
40.6
2,449
2,590
2,702
13.4%
5.74%
4.33%
8.35
7.90
7.57
1.37
1.26
1.16
8.31%
6.36%
6.36%
16.8%
16.6%
16.0%
DRC
Che Thi Mai Trang
47,400
55,200
16.5%
577
1.99
HSX
49.0%
1.03%
5.94
2,031
3,240
3,506
62.4%
59.6%
8.19%
23.3
14.6
13.5
2.26
2.14
2.04
2.98%
4.22%
4.22%
10.0%
15.0%
15.4%
GMD
Add
Tran Thi Thu Nga, CFA
16,400
16,000
(2.44%)
37.7
0.73
HSX
34.9%
19.0%
7.17
2,811
3,356
2,260
28.2%
19.4%
(32.6%)
5.83
4.89
7.26
1.14
1.01
0.98
2.65%
2.65%
2.65%
25.8%
29.7%
15.4%
HAX
Hold
Che Thi Mai Trang
10,300
10,100
(1.94%)
921
0.87
HSX
30.0%
24.1%
222
(7,909) (4,872) (1,657)
(2.66%)
38.4%
66.0%
0
0
0
15.3
(2.45)
(1.72)
0%
0%
0%
(330%)
276%
32.5%
HVN
Tran Thi Thu Nga, CFA
34,000
34,700
2.06%
63.8
0.33
HSX
49.0%
36.2%
23.1
3,740
3,405
3,630
17.0%
(8.97%)
6.60%
9.09
9.99
9.37
1.82
1.68
1.55
4.41%
4.41%
4.41%
21.8%
17.5%
17.2%
PAC
Add
Che Thi Mai Trang
71,000
84,300
18.7%
269
0.09
HSX
30.0%
1.35%
3.63
10,425
6,339
6,669
22.9%
(39.2%)
5.20%
6.81
11.2
10.6
2.88
4.03
3.78
4.23%
7.04%
7.04%
49.8%
43.4%
39.6%
SCS
Buy
Tran Thi Thu Nga, CFA
39,400
52,500
33.2%
2,114
0.57
UPCoM
49.0%
43.9%
929
4,328
5,201
5,544
3.60%
20.2%
6.59%
9.10
7.58
7.11
2.21
2.12
1.99
11.4%
10.9%
13.1%
23.5%
28.6%
28.9%
VEA
Sell
Che Thi Mai Trang
31,550
26,500
(16.0%)
154
1.09
HSX
49.0%
44.2%
68.2
5,560
2,975
2,984
27.8%
(46.5%)
0.30%
5.67
10.6
10.6
1.32
1.15
1.09
1.58%
3.17%
3.17%
15.8%
11.6%
10.6%
VSC
Tran Thi Thu Nga, CFA
33,300
35,700
7.21%
152
0.35
UPCoM
49.0%
28.6%
43.6
2,619
3,005
3,388
(22.7%)
14.7%
12.8%
12.7
11.1
9.83
2.60
2.60
2.34
4.50%
4.50%
4.50%
23.4%
24.5%
25.1%
25.3%
1,436
3.49
169%
38.3%
(20.8%)
5.78
4.88
6.15
1.29
1.06
0.97
6.71%
7.10%
6.25%
24.0%
29.1%
17.1%
Hang Xanh Motors
Vietnam Airlines
PAC
Dry Cell and Storage Battery
Hold
SCS
SCSC Cargo Service
VEA
VN Engine & Agri. Machinery
VSC
Vietnam Container Shipping
VTP
Viettel Post
Add
23F
ROAE
Tran Thi Thu Nga, CFA
HVN
22F
Div Yield
Buy
HAX
21F
P/B (x)
Add
Gemadept
(USDmn)
P/E (x)
Hold
Da Nang Rubber JSC
GMD
(%)
EPS growth
21F
7.91%
(70.9%)
DRC
limit
EPS
downside
8.73%
7.69%
22F
143%
1,363%
23F
8.99%
12.6%
21F
51.6
383
22F
11.6
26.2
23F
11.0
23.3
21F
3.58
4.89
22F
1.79
4.38
23F
1.71
3.91
21F
4.01%
0%
22F
4.38%
0.59%
23F
4.60%
0.59%
21F
(14.2%)
1.28%
22F
48.1%
17.6%
23F
Ticker
21.8% Industrials: Transportation
17.7%
ACV
DCM
PetroVietnam Ca Mau Fert.
Buy
Truong Hong Kim
29,100
40,800
40.2%
622
7.29
HSX
49.0%
38.2%
238
3,444
7,720
4,662
175%
124%
(39.6%)
8.45
3.77
6.24
2.07
1.61
1.44
6.19%
10.3%
6.87%
26.5%
48.1%
24.4%
VTP
Industrials: Materials Chemicals
DCM
DPM
PetroVietnam Fert. & Chem.
Buy
Truong Hong Kim
40,900
61,200
49.6%
646
5.89
HSX
49.0%
31.8%
206
7,965
14,170
8,578
351%
77.9%
(39.5%)
5.13
2.89
4.77
1.49
1.12
1.02
8.56%
12.2%
12.2%
32.9%
44.3%
22.4%
DPM
DPR
Dong Phu Rubber JSC
Add
Truong Hong Kim
51,000
61,000
19.6%
88.6
0.38
HSX
0%
47.5%
42.1
10,430
6,849
5,883
135%
(34.3%)
(14.1%)
4.89
7.45
8.67
0.97
0.94
0.91
5.88%
5.88%
5.88%
22.1%
12.8%
10.6%
DPR
LTG
Loc Troi Group
Reduce
Truong Hong Kim
24,200
22,200
(8.26%)
78.8
0.39
UPCoM
49.0%
9.34%
7.36
5,228
4,463
4,906
15.1%
(14.6%)
9.92%
4.63
5.42
4.93
0.65
0.58
0.52
6.20%
0%
0%
14.5%
11.3%
11.1%
277%
(79.1%)
35.1%
1.58
8.36
6.10
0.61
0.69
0.62
3.93%
0%
2.42%
48.5%
9.63%
11.0%
1,309
7,708
2,747
3,216
89.9%
(64.4%)
17.1%
2.39
6.70
5.72
0.91
1.03
0.88
2.72%
0%
2.72%
46.1%
16.5%
16.6%
LTG
Industrials: Materials Industrial Metals
HPG
Industrials: Materials - Chemicals
Industrials: Materials - Industrial Metals
32.6%
4,710
12.8
HPG
Hoa Phat Group
Buy
Vo Thi Ngoc Han, CFA
18,400
28,300
53.8%
4,321
24.3
HSX
49.0%
30.3%
HSG
Hoa Sen Group
Hold
Vo Thi Ngoc Han, CFA
11,250
11,900
5.78%
272
6.91
HSX
49.0%
43.2%
117
8,741
961
1,475
232%
(89.0%)
53.5%
1.29
11.7
7.63
0.51
0.57
0.54
0%
0%
0%
49.6%
5.10%
7.26%
HSG
Hold
Vo Thi Ngoc Han, CFA
11,000
15,200
40.0%
46.8
10,177
1,650
2,222
59,300
68,000
7.02
0.20
0.20
50.0%
Vo Thi Ngoc Han, CFA
117
196
196
HSX
Add
38.2%
14.7%
14.7%
HSX
100%
14.7%
28.7
2,619
7,096
7,222
509%
(59.0%)
(59.0%)
(83.8%)
171%
171%
34.7%
1.77%
1.77%
1.08
22.6
22.6
6.67
8.36
8.36
4.95
8.21
8.21
0.42
2.12
2.12
0.47
1.98
1.98
0.44
2.00
2.00
9.06%
4.38%
4.38%
0%
11.8%
11.8%
4.55%
11.8%
11.8%
50.0%
9.00%
9.00%
7.33%
24.5%
24.5%
9.23%
24.3%
24.3%
75.2%
18,856
2.68
88.5%
22.3%
21.4%
14.7
13.7
11.0
2.96
2.67
2.39
5.58%
6.09%
8.74%
22.1%
21.3%
22.7%
HSX
UPCoM
49.0%
49.0%
18.7%
11.8%
51.9
16.7
4,084
3,212
4,920
4,460
5,762
5,545
(11.4%)
3.49%
20.5%
38.9%
17.1%
24.3%
8.40
5.45
6.97
3.92
5.95
3.16
1.26
0.65
1.14
0.61
1.01
0.60
5.83%
11.4%
5.83%
13.1%
5.83%
28.6%
18.7%
12.2%
17.1%
16.1%
18.0%
19.3%
NKG
Industrials: Capital Goods
BMP
Consumer: Consumer
Staples - F&B, Tobacco
FMC
MPC
NKG
Nam Kim Steel
Industrials: Capital Goods
BMP
Binh Minh Plastics JSC
Consumer: Consumer Staples - F&B, Tobacco
FMC
MPC
Sao Ta Foods JSC
Minh Phu Seafood Corp.
Add
Add
Truong Hong Kim
Truong Hong Kim
34,300
17,500
57,200
55,400
66.8%
217%
277
141
0.11
0.11
MSN
Masan Group
Buy Bui Nguyen Cam Giang, CFA
102,000
165,400
62.2%
5,836
7.16
HSX
100%
19.4%
1,129
6,044
3,791
5,615
590%
(37.3%)
48.1%
16.9
26.9
18.2
4.40
3.75
3.11
-
-
-
35.1%
15.1%
18.7%
MSN
QNS
Quang Ngai Sugar
Buy Bui Nguyen Cam Giang, CFA
37,400
56,100
50.0%
455
0.36
UPCoM
49.0%
30.1%
137
4,117
4,329
5,062
19.4%
5.13%
17.0%
9.08
8.64
7.39
1.59
1.50
1.39
6.68%
8.02%
8.02%
18.3%
18.1%
19.7%
QNS
SAB
Sabeco
Buy
Tran Huong My
180,000
228,500
26.9%
4,659
1.90
HSX
100%
37.3%
1,739
5,502
8,313
9,957
(22.9%)
51.1%
19.8%
32.7
21.7
18.1
5.44
4.80
4.20
1.94%
1.94%
2.22%
17.6%
23.5%
24.8%
SAB
VHC
Vinh Hoan Corp.
Buy Bui Nguyen Cam Giang, CFA
68,000
135,000
98.5%
500
2.04
HSX
100%
70.3%
351
5,750
11,081
12,173
45.4%
92.7%
9.85%
11.8
6.14
5.59
2.14
1.67
1.33
2.94%
2.94%
2.94%
20.1%
32.1%
27.9%
VHC
VNM
Viet Nam Dairy Products
Add
82,800
87,400
5.56%
6,988
7.12
HSX
100%
44.3%
3,098
4,536
3,863
4,380
(5.10%)
(14.8%)
13.4%
18.3
21.4
18.9
5.23
5.21
5.08
4.65%
4.65%
4.83%
32.7%
27.0%
30.2%
43.5%
1,369
1.35
11.6%
35.7%
12.8%
18.7
12.8
11.3
2.57
2.10
1.82
2.51%
2.01%
2.16%
16.9%
19.6%
Tran Huong My
PNJ
Phu Nhuan Jewelry
Buy Bui Nguyen Cam Giang, CFA
113,500
131,900
16.2%
1,128
2.94
HSX
49.0%
0%
0
4,161
6,900
7,932
(3.33%)
65.8%
15.0%
27.3
16.5
14.3
4.29
3.14
2.68
1.76%
1.76%
1.76%
18.3%
24.1%
VNM
Consumer: Consumer
18.1% Discretionary - Durables &
Apparel
22.0%
PNJ
STK
Century Synthetic Fiber
Add
Che Thi Mai Trang
26,000
52,500
102%
87.0
0.02
HSX
100%
87.5%
76.1
3,939
3,656
4,041
92.7%
(7.18%)
10.5%
6.60
7.11
6.43
1.46
1.34
1.15
5.77%
3.20%
3.21%
23.8%
21.2%
19.3%
STK
TCM
Thanh Cong Text. Garment
Add
Che Thi Mai Trang
46,500
52,300
12.5%
154
1.07
HSX
49.0%
2.44%
3.75
2,104
3,125
3,532
(54.4%)
48.5%
13.0%
22.1
14.9
13.2
1.95
1.82
1.64
0%
1.08%
1.51%
8.56%
13.5%
13.1%
TCM
Consumer: Consumer
Discretionary - Retailing
DGW
FRT
Consumer: Consumer Discretionary - Durables & Apparel
Consumer: Consumer Discretionary - Retailing
66.0%
3,238
6.33
577%
3.83%
29.7%
12.9
12.0
9.17
2.93
3.14
2.49
1.67%
1.82%
2.66%
34.1%
31.3%
31.1%
DGW
FRT
Digiworld Corp
FPT Retail
Buy
Add
Tran Huong My
Tran Huong My
44,250
71,000
74,300
126,667
67.9%
78.4%
291
340
3.23
5.80
HSX
HSX
49.0%
49.0%
23.4%
25.3%
68.1
85.8
7,436
3,633
5,049
5,561
6,063
7,074
19.7%
1,695%
(32.1%)
53.1%
20.1%
27.2%
5.95
19.5
8.76
12.8
7.30
10.0
2.19
5.06
2.93
3.75
2.23
2.88
2.26%
0.47%
2.26%
0.94%
2.71%
1.88%
44.7%
30.9%
38.8%
34.8%
34.7%
33.5%
MWG
Mobile World Inv't Corp.
Buy
Tran Huong My
44,100
66,900
51.7%
2,607
9.97
HSX
49.0%
0%
0
3,375
3,055
4,336
17.0%
(9.47%)
41.9%
13.1
14.4
10.2
1.54
2.74
2.35
2.27%
2.27%
3.40%
26.6%
20.2%
25.1%
45.0%
3,305
5.36
21.8%
29.0%
21.8%
18.8
14.6
12.0
4.54
4.20
3.73
2.82%
2.68%
2.68%
25.7%
30.0%
33.2%
29.0%
2.82%
2.68%
2.68%
25.7%
30.0%
Technology, Communications & Internet: Information Technology
FPT
FPT Corp
Truong Thu My
74,600
108,200
45.0%
3,305
5.36
14.4%
525
0.16
Hold Bui Nguyen Cam Giang, CFA
Buy Bui Nguyen Cam Giang, CFA
Buy
86,000
33,950
98,000
39,000
14.0%
14.9%
454
71.1
0.04
0.28
Health Care
DHG
TNH
DHG Pharmaceutical JSC
Thai Nguyen International Hospital
HSX
49.0%
0%
0
3,969
5,121
6,236
21.8%
21.8%
18.8
14.6
12.0
4.54
4.20
3.73
33.2%
MWG
Technology,
Communications &
Internet: Information
Technology
FPT
18.3%
8.07%
14.0%
13.7
12.6
11.1
2.61
1.91
1.70
4.07%
3.49%
3.49%
20.6%
17.4%
16.1%
Health Care
HSX
HSX
100%
49.0%
45.8%
12.2%
208
8.64
5,746
2,751
6,576
2,798
7,142
3,340
5.57%
31.0%
14.4%
1.69%
8.60%
19.4%
15.0
12.3
13.1
12.1
12.0
10.2
2.97
2.26
2.68
1.14
2.38
1.02
4.07%
-
3.49%
-
3.49%
-
21.1%
20.1%
22.3%
12.5%
21.7%
10.6%
DHG
TNH
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Trading volumes
Liquidity in the market slightly improved in November versus October. The average daily turnover in November increased to VND11,675 billion, 0.7% higher than in October yet still 33.6%
below the YTD average. We can see the average monthly turnover of all key sectors has been decreasing significantly since November 2021. Pessimism about a possible recession and
rising interest rates from central banks are likely the cause of low liquidity in global markets including Vietnam.
Average monthly turnover by key sector
Average daily market turnover
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
Monthly buying/selling value of individual investors
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
Daily HSX net foreign buying as a % of the total
Source: HSX, HNX, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Source: FiinPro, HSC Research
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Market capitalization of key sectors has decreased significantly over the last 12 months, among them Real Estate, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary.
Monthly change in market capitalization of key sectors
Note: Sectors based on Bloomberg definitions.
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Breakdown by participants
Foreign investors net bought at USD725 million in November 2022, the highest level since May 2018, flipping the net YTD cumulative total to buying of USD680 million. Stocks most
sold by foreign investors last month included: DXG, KDC, SAB, FTS, PC1, and HCM while overall net buying occurred in VHM, STB, KDH, HPG, and SSI.
Monthly trading activities of retail and institutional investors
Monthly HSX & HNX foreign net buying / (selling) of equities
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
Top 20 stocks most bought by institutional investors in November
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
Top 20 stocks most bought by retail investors in November
Source: FiinPro, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Source: FiinPro, HSC Research
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
New trading accounts
96,601 new securities trading accounts were opened in October 2022, which is 5% lower than the number of new accounts that were opened in September. In the first 10 months of
the year, individual investors opened nearly 2.4 million new accounts, which is equal to 55% of the total number of accounts recorded at the end FY21. The growth of new accounts
opened this month was much lower compared to previous months, below 2%. Market liquidity remains low. The average monthly trading volume in October is 36% lower compared to
the YTD average.
Source: VSD, FiinPro, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
ETF fund flows
ETF inflows of USD373.39 billion occurred in November 2022, the highest level since 2010, which is mainly attributed to the new Fubon ETF as well as iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF.
VFMVN Diamond ETF, E1VFVN30 ETF, and VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF all recorded net inflows while net withdrawals were evident for the Premia MSCI Vietnam ETF.
Vietnam ETF fund flows (USDmn)
Relative ETF prices vs. VN Index
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
1 month ETF fund flows (USDmn)
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
YTD ETF fund flows (USDmn)
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
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Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Vietnam listed companies: Recent placements, candidates for SOE equity sell-downs
Recent private placement announcements, sorted by market capitalisation
Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank
VPB
Plan Volume
(Shares)
1,190,000,000
Saigon-Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank
SHB
533,374,722
4/22/2022
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam
BID
455,267,143
4/29/2022
SmartInvest Securities Joint Stock Company
AAS
300,000,000
7/7/2022
VNDIRECT Securities Corporation
VND
243,568,732
4/26/2022
Southeast Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank
SSB
228,700,000
4/22/2022
Khai Hoan Land Group Joint Stock Company
KHG
200,000,000
4/12/2022
Hoang Anh Gia Lai Corporation
HAG
161,904,760
4/12/2022
Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank
NAB
160,000,000
5/5/2022
Sacombank Securities Joint Stock Company
SBS
150,000,000
6/7/2022
Kinh Bac City Development Holding Corporation
KBC
150,000,000
2/11/2022
Masan Group Corporation
MSN
142,372,483
4/29/2022
Viet First Securities Corporation
VFS
140,100,000
4/12/2022
LDG Investment Joint stock Company
LDG
120,000,000
7/1/2022
Thu Duc Housing Development Corporation
TDH
120,000,000
4/21/2022
Sao Thang Long Investment Joint Stock Company
DST
115,000,000
5/19/2022
Masan High-Tech Materials Corporation
MSR
110,626,257
4/27/2022
American Vietnamese Biotech Incorporation
AMV
110,000,000
7/4/2022
SSI
104,042,344
5/9/2022
HQC
100,000,000
6/20/2022
Company
Ticker
SSI Securities Corporation
Hoang Quan Consulting Trading Service Real Estate Corporation
Announcement
Date (Day)
5/4/2022
Source: FiinPro, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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05 December 2022
Companies available for divestment by SOEs, sorted by chartered capital
ACV
Market cap
(VNDbn)
168,997
Ba Ria - Vung Tau Water Supply Joint Stock Company
BWS
3,024
36.0%
An Giang Power and Water Supply Joint Stock Company
DNA
1,352
87.7%
Hai Phong Water Joint Stock Company
HPW
1,187
80.6%
Thua Thien Hue Water Supply Joint Stock Company
HWS
1,153
70.0%
Quang Ninh Clean Water Joint Stock Company
NQN
961
51.0%
Vinh Long Warter Supply Joint Stock Company
VLW
723
51.0%
Viet Tri Chemical Joint Stock Company
HVT
571
68.5%
CTW
560
64.0%
AFX
509
20.5%
Hai Duong Water Joint Stock Company
HDW
478
65.0%
Khanh Hoa Water Supply And Sewerage Joint Stock Company
KHW
442
51.0%
Ben Tre Water Supply and Sewerage Joint Stock Company
NBT
441
64.0%
Phu Yen Water Supply and Sewerage Joint Stock Company
PWS
403
38.4%
Dien Bien Water Supply Joint Stock Company
DBW
393
99.4%
Ninh Thuan Water Supply Joint Stock Company
NNT
350
52.1%
Quang Binh Water Supply Joint Stock Company
NQB
346
51.0%
Nghe An Water Supply Joint Stock Company
NAW
333
38.1%
Dong Thap Water Supply & Urban Environment Joint - Stock Company
DWS
324
85.1%
Bac Giang Clean Water Joint Stock Company
BGW
318
51.0%
Company
Ticker
Airports Corporation of Vietnam
Can Tho Water Supply - Sewerage Joint Stock Company
An Giang Agriculture and Foods Import - Export Joint Stock Company
% SOE Stake
95.4%
Source: FiinPro, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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05 December 2022
Regional equity markets
The Vietnam stock market remains attractive versus regional peers. According to Bloomberg, EPS growth reached 35% in FY21, higher than the regional average. Earnings are also
expected to grow more significantly than the regional average in FY22. The forward P/E for FY22 and FY23 are only 9.1x and 8.2x with EPS growth of 11.1% and 11.7%, respectively. Our
VN Index target for the end of 2022 is 1,250, which implies 19.2% upside.
2021 P/E, EPS growth
Sources: Bloomberg, HSC Research
2022 P/E, EPS growth
Sources: Bloomberg, HSC Research
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05 December 2022
2023 forward P/E, EPS growth
Sources: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
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05 December 2022
Global equity markets
Absolute performance of the VN Index vs. MSCI FM, MSCI EM (Jan-17 = 100)
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
ROE of VN Index vs. MSCI FM, MSCI EM
Forward P/E of VN Index vs. MSCI FM, MSCI EM
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
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05 December 2022
Economy, interest rates, and commodity index
IPI, PMI, trade balance, and FDI flows
The industrial production index still maintains a solidly positive rate but slowed recently, slipping to 5.3% in November 2022. Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI was also lower compared to
previous months and within the region. The trade balance became a deficit and FDI implementation flows have been steady since January 2022.
Industrial production index and manufacturing
Manufacturing PMI
Source: CEIC, HSC Research
Vietnam trade
Source: CEIC, HSC Research
FDI flows
Source: CEIC, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Source: CEIC, HSC Research
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05 December 2022
Interest rates, FX, CPI, & Bloomberg Commodity Index
The Overnight interbank rate increased in November, higher than the average level seen since 2020, while overnight interbank volume has also increased steadily since 2020. Under
pressure from a sharp rise in the DXY recently as well as the policy change in widening the exchange rate band from the SBV, the USD/VND exchange rate substantially increased to the
level of VND24,800. Although CPI has increased over the past few months, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has actually decreased from the peak recently.
Overnight interbank rate and volume
DXY and USD/VND exchange rate
Source: CEIC, HSC Research
Monthly CPI of Vietnam
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
Bloomberg Commodity Index, which is calculated on an excess return basis
and reflects commodity futures price movements
Source: CEIC, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Source: Bloomberg, HSC Research
Page 24
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Please refer to the disclosures of potential conflict of interest and the disclaimer at the end of this report
Strategy Report
05 December 2022
Bond market & money markets
Government bond trading in the secondary market
Source: HNX, HSC Research
Foreign capital net inflows into stock and bond markets
Source: HNX, HSC Research
www.hsc.com.vn
Page 25
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Please refer to the disclosures of potential conflict of interest and the disclaimer at the end of this report
