Meyfroidt & lambin 2008 causes of reforestation in VN

Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197
The causes of the reforestation in Vietnam
Patrick Meyfroidt
Ã
, Eric F. Lambin
Department of Geography, University of Louvain, Place Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
Received 11 December 2006; received in revised form 26 May 2007; accepted 27 June 2007
Abstract
We test an emerging theory of the forest transition using the case of Vietnam. In the early 1990s, decollectivisation of agriculture,
allocation of forestry land to households, and the development of market networks transformed land use in the mountains of Vietnam,
leading to an increase in forest area. We used census and geographic data covering the whole country at a fine level of aggregation to
build a spatial lag regression model of reforestation. We separated natural forest regrowth from the increase in plantation forests. The
forest transition theory distinguishes between the forest scarcity and economic development paths. Our study suggests that the forest
scarcity path was in part at work in Vietnam: new policies allocating forestry land to households, local scarcity of forest products, and
development of remote demand for timber contributed to forest cover increases. The evidence regarding the economic development path
are more ambiguous, as there was no depopulation or agricultural decline in marginal regions. We propose a third forest transition path
that better corresponds to Vietnam’s situation: a smallholder agricultural intensification path. In marginal regions, land scarcity
associated with population growth, land degradation, and political restrictions led to, on one hand, a decline in cultivation on hillsides
followed by reforestation and, on the other hand, an increase in labour inputs on the plots with the highest agro-ecological potential. The
development of markets for agricultural inputs and outputs did also contribute to reforestation by raising agricultural productivity in
mountain paddies and maize fields. This reinforced the concentration of agriculture on the most suitable land.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Forest transition; Reforestation; Vietnam; Land use change; Land allocation; Forestry; Agricultural intensification; Land abandonment;
Spatial lag regression
Introduction
Forest cover conversion and modification due to land
use change impact on a range of ecosystem services
(Lambin et al., 2003). While at present these processes
mostly affect tropical and equatorial regions, it used to
take place in Europe and other now developed parts of the
world. In the past, some states succeeded in stopping

deforestation and even extending their forest cover.
Understanding this forest transition is attracting much
interest as it provides lessons for a broader transition to
sustainability (Mather, 1992). Vietnam is one of the few
tropical countries where a forest trans ition seems to be
taking place today. Cases of forest transition have already
been studied on a local scale (Rudel et al., 2002; Klooster,
2003; Perz and Skole, 2003) and through cross-country
analyses (Rudel et al., 2005; Ewers, 2006; Kauppi et al.,
2006). The objective of our study was to understand the
causes of refor estation in Vietnam during the 1990s on a
national scale and test emerging forest transition theories
(FTT) at that scale. It is based on census and geographic
data at a relatively fine level of aggregation and relies on
published case studies on the local scale to support
interpretation.
In historical analyses, Mather (1992) and Mather et al.
(1999) describe a forest transition as a broad set of
interrelated economic, political, institutional, and cultural
processes in the agriculture, forestry, and energy sectors.
Rudel et al. (2005) identify two broad pathways of forest
transition: the economic development path and the forest
scarcity path. The former is associated with industrialisa-
tion and the tertiarisation of the economy that pull the
labour force away from rural areas to cities. Agri cultural
intensification reinforces this trend by increasing food
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Ã
Corresponding author. Tel.: +32 10472675; fax: +32 10472877.
E-mail addresses: (P. Meyfroidt),
(E.F. Lambin).
production and profitability in the most suitable regions of
a country. Market networks accelerate depopulation and
agricultural decline in the least suitable regions. According
to this economic development path, the spatial pattern of
agriculture at the na tional scale is thus expected to match
increasingly land suitability. Forests are expected to regrow
in marginal regions, especially those that are well
connected to economic centres and to agriculturally
productive regions (Mather and Needle, 1998). On a global
scale, the role of agricultural intensification in this process
is sometimes called the Borlaug hypothesis (Angelsen and
Kaimowitz, 2001). In the second pathway of forest
transition, deforestation caused by agricultural expansion
or wood extraction creates a scarcity of forest products and
decreases the ability of forests to deliver ecosystem goods
and services. Increasing demand for wood products due to
economic growth may reinforce this scarcity. The economic
response by landowners includes tree planting and more
intensive forest management (Hyde et al., 1996). Thanks to
forestry intensification, timber needs can be satisfied from
limited areas of forest plantations, thus saving the
remaining forests from exploitation pressure (Sedjo and
Botkin, 1997). This is similar in the forestry sector to the
Borlaug hypothesis in agriculture. Forest scarcity also
arouses cultural and political responses, inducing govern-
ments to implement policies to restrict forest exploitation,

promote mo re sustainable management practi ces, and
invest in forestry research and reforestation programmes.
According to this forest scarcity path, reforestation is
therefore expected to occur in regions with a low forest
cover, a poor land suitability for agriculture and good
connections to distant markets—i.e. where developing
forestry is most profitable. The substitution of fuelwood
with fossil fuels or other energy sources is another possible
driver of a forest transition, but with mixed empirical
evidence. Recently Mather (2007) hypothesized the ex-
istence of other undefined pathways of forest transition for
China, India and Vietnam.
Vietnam is a densely populated country, with large
regional differences between small but very productive
areas (the Mekong and Red River deltas) and mountai-
nous areas covering more than two-thirds of the country
(Fig. 1). The deltas have long been cultivated and
mountains were still extens ively covered by forests until
the mid-twentieth century (Poffenberger and Nguyen,
1998). Since then, Vietnam has experienced rapid defor-
estation, culminating in the late 1980s. Forest cover was at
its lowest in the late 1980s–early 1990s, when it covered
around 25% of the territory and only 17% of the northern
mountains (Figs. 2 and 3). Deforestation was mainly
caused by agricultural expansion due to increasing
population in the uplands, following both natural popula-
tion growth and migration (De Koninck, 1999). Policies
encouraged resettlement to relieve pressure on the already
densely populated river deltas (Lundberg, 2004). Wood
exploitation for local and urban needs also contributed to

forest clearing (McElwee, 2004), as did the collectivisation
of agriculture that was implemented in the north from 1954
onwards and in the south after 1975 but failed to generate
sustainable agriculture (Castella and Quang, 2002). In the
late 1980s, prod uctivity in mountain paddies was low
because the cooperatives were poorly managed (e.g.
unreliable fertiliser distribution) and farmers lacked
incentives (paddy field production was the property of
cooperatives). Farmers increasingly turned to slash-and-
burn cultivation on hillsides to maximise labour returns
while growing their own food. Agriculture is forbidden in
Vietnam on most hillsides because they are classified as
‘‘forestry land’’ due to their steep slopes whether or not
they have tree cover. But enforcement by local govern-
ments was weak and the traditional rule of free access was
prevailing on most hillsides. Food shortages became severe,
forests disappeared and hill sides were increasingly eroded.
Several authors warned of the deepening environmental
and development crisis in Vi etnam’s mountains (Jamieson
et al., 1998).
Since the mid-1990s, however, this trend has been largely
reversed and forest cover has increased notably through
natural regeneration and the extension of tree plantations,
although not everywhere in the country. This reforestation
was accompanied by political and economic changes in
favour of decentralisation and liberalisation (i.e. the Doi
Moi reforms initiated in the 1980s). This induced rapid
economic growth and the development of the industrial
and service sectors (Kerkvliet and Porter, 1995).
Agricultural and forestry policies changed dramatically.

In the agricultural sector, input and output markets were
ARTICLE IN PRESS
High : 3084
Elevation (m)
Low : 0
Main cities
Northern
mountains
Central highlands
500 Kilometers
Hanoi
Da Nang
Ho Chi Minh Cit
y
0
N
Fig. 1. Map of Vietnam.
P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197 183
progressively liberalised (Pingali et al., 1997; Kerkvliet and
Porter, 1995). The ‘‘Contract 100’’ policy in 1981 allowed
farmers to keep surpluses above a fixed contracted
quantity. The ‘‘Contract 10’’ policy in 1988 further
liberalised rice and input prices, land rights, and crop
choices. Households were also allowed to own all their
production after subtracting taxes and charges (Kerkvliet
and Porter, 1995). Under the Land Law of 1993, house-
holds were given long-term rights to use, transfer,
exchange, inherit, rent, and mortgage land (Do and Iyer,
2003). In mountain areas, labour was redistributed to
paddies (Sadoulet et al., 2002) and the use of fertilisers and

new seed varieties of rice and maize increased, with
renewed incentives for farmers to produce surpluses (Minot
and Goletti, 2000; Minot, 2003). Livestock and fruit trees
also increased. Several local studies (Sikor, 2001; Tachiba-
na et al., 2001; Castella and Er out, 2002; Muller, 2003)
have pointed to the positive role of these changes on forest
regeneration, but their relative contribution is still debated.
In the forestry sector, tree planting campaigns were
launched via Decree 327 (in 1992) and its successor, the
Five Million Hectare Reforestation Programme (started in
1998) (De Jong et al., 2006). The 1993 Land Law also
introduced a system for the allocation of forestry land to
households (Sikor, 1998) (we use the term ‘‘forestry land’’
to refer to land legally classified for forestry use), to make
the beneficiaries assume personal responsibility for protect-
ing forestry land. Several authorities (forest management
boards, national park administrations, stat e forest enter-
prises) also signed forest protection contracts with house-
holds, which imposed more restrictions on households
rights on forestry land than for allocated land. Formal
implementation of these policies varied locally but, in
general, participating households were given rights to
allocated or contracted land, such as the right to grow
crops during the first years of forest regrowth and collect
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Fig. 2. Evolution of forest cover in Vietnam. See Meyfroidt and Lambin (to appear).
0 500 Kilometers
Land cover
Non forest
Forest

N
Fig. 3. Forest cover in 1993.
P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197184
forest products. They also received small cash payments in
return for their commitment to preserve and protect
forests, and sometimes to plant trees (Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development, 2001; McElwee,
2004; Sikor, 2006; Sowerwine, 2004). The impact of these
policies on forests is still under discussion. According to
some studies (Tachibana et al., 2001; Castella et al., 2006),
forestry land allocation led to forest recovery by prohibit-
ing hillside cultivation. However, Sikor (2001, 2006)
concludes that, because of the numerous shortcomings in
policy design and implementation, the policy largely failed
to protect uplands. Forest regeneration was thus driven by
agricultural intensification. Sunderlin (2006) also presents
ambiguous evidence on the impact of forestry policies.
Along with agricultural and forestry policies, the Viet-
namese government also developed plans to extend
protected areas and strengthen their enforcement after
signing the Convention on Biological Diversity (Govern-
ment of Vietnam, 1994; World Conservation Monitoring
Center, 1994). At the same time, the government was still
promoting colonisation an d large-scale development of
perennial crops (mainly coffee and rubber) in the Central
Highlands (Hardy, 2000; D’haeze et al., 2005), which
caused massive deforestation (De Koninck, 1999; Muller,
2003).
Materials and methods
Study design

This study analyses the influence of agricultural and
forestry changes on forests at a national scale. Actually, the
forest transition theory was developed to explain change in
forest cover at the country level. The units of analysis are
Vietnam’s administrative districts, which are the second
smallest administrative unit in Vietnam, just above the
communes. A typical district is around 600 or 900 km
2
in
mountainous regions. We used two regression models to
identify statistical relations at the district level between
forest cover changes, biophysical features, and land use
variables. Local or provincial case studies were used to
support interpretation of these relations. Districts were
selected because they are large enough to match the
concept of region as used in the FTT, while being small
enough so that the findings at the district level can be
interpreted using case studies at the commune (around
85 km
2
) or village (around 10 km
2
) levels. This multi-scale
approach allows linking in-depth knowledge of processes
acquired at the local level with a more statistically
representative analysis at the national level. Such approach
has limitations, particularly given the heterogeneous
context of Vietnam’s mountains. Statistical relations do
not indicate causality, and findings from case studies are
only valid for the conditions from which they were derived.

The study period goes from 1993 to 2002, corresponding
to two forest inventories and close to two exhaustive
agricultural censuses (in 1994 and 2001) that pro vide data
about rural households, agricultural, and forestry land
uses. This period corresponds broadly to the initial years of
reforestation. Policies regarding decollectivisation and
liberalisation of agriculture were largely in place in the
late 1980s, but their implementation continued during the
early 1990s, especially in the remote mountain regions
(Minot, 2003). The consequent agricultural developments
progressed throughout the 1990s. Although it was initiated
earlier, forestry land allocation accelerated after the 1993
Land law. This time scale is sho rt compared to historical
studies of forest transition that often extend over several
decades. Therefore, some drivi ng forces identified in the
FTT, such as slow demographic changes, are expected to
figure less prominently in this study. However, by studying
an ongoing transition, we were able to rely on more
detailed data and disentangle multiple causes and pa thways
of this transition.
Data
We assembled data from several sources in a geographi-
cal information system (GIS) to perform multiple regres-
sion analysis. Data were collected for the 542 districts of
Vietnam. Due to missing values, we used only 344 districts
in the regression analysis for natural forests, and 345 for
planted forests. The following variables were included
(Table 1): forest cover and forest cover change, land
suitability for agriculture, accessibility to markets and
population centres, agricultural intensification, agricultural

and economic diversification (livestock, perennial crops
such as coffee, tea and fruit trees, and non-farm sector),
activity in forestry sector and its capital intensity, degree of
implementation of forestry policies (which is mainly the
responsibility of district authorities, Sikor, 1998), extent of
protected areas, and population density.
GIS layers were obtained from the Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment (MONRE), except for the
Digital Elevation Model which was extracted from the
Global Land One-kilometer Base Elevation (GLOBE)
model from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), at approximately 1 km resolu-
tion. For forest cover, we used the forest map of 1993
produced by the Forest Inventory and Planning Institute of
Vietnam (FIPI) and district-level forest statistics of 2002
from FIPI and the Forest Protection Department (FPD)
(Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2003).
These data were produced by supervised classification of
Landsat satellite images supported by field assessment, and
identify natural and planted forests. The soil map was
reclassified in four suitability classes, based on Nguyen et
al. (2002). We calculated the percentage of a district area
covered by soils from the two lowest suitability classes.
Accessibility of a district was measured by the road density
and the distance to the main population centres (markets
and/or administrative centres). The densities of unpa ved
and paved roads were used as indicators of internal
communication within a district.
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P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197 185

The main data sources on rural households and land use
were the 1994 and 2001 Rural, Agricultural and Fishery
Censuses conducted by the General Statistical Office of
Vietnam (GSO) (General Statistical Office, 1995, 2003),
covering the whole rural population. The implementation
of the forestry land allocation policy was measured by the
percentage of land allocated to households as forestry
lands. No data on forest protection contracts were
available. Forestry sector activities were proxied by the
proportion of households whose main activity was in the
forestry sector. The capital intensity of this sector was
proxied by the number of chainsaws per person. Agricul-
tural intensification was measured by the rate of increase of
rice and maize yields (the two main crops), the change in
the percentage of area under irrigated crops, and the
change in rice cropping frequency (the number of times a
plot of land is cultivated each year or, similarly, the
proportion of land that is under multi-cropping). The
censuses contained no district level data on rice and maize
yields, livestock, and cropping frequency in paddies. For
these variables, we used data at the provincial level,
assuming that all districts in a province had the same
value. This is likely to introduce spatial autocorrelation in
our analysis, as discussed below. Data sources were
Statistical Yearbooks published by the GSO (General
Statistical Office, 1994, 2004), the Agricultural Census of
1994, and the General Land Census and Statistical
Yearbook of 2000 (partial results were published by the
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2002).
Regression models

We first computed linear correlations to describe the
spatial pattern of forest cover changes. We then performed
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Table 1
List of variables
Variables used in the regression models Data sources
Biophysical and accessibility variables
Dtown Distance to the nearest provincial capital, in km GIS layer from MONRE
Dcity Distance to the nearest large city (Ha noi, Ho Chi Minh City or Da Nang), in km GIS layer from MONRE
Unpavroad
Density of unpaved roads, in km=km
2
GIS layer from MONRE
Pavroad
Density of paved roads, in km=km
2
GIS layer from MONRE
Highway
Density of highways, in km=km
2
GIS layer from MONRE
Slope Mean slope, in degrees NOAA-GLOBE
PoorSoil % of poor quality soils GIS layer from MONRE
Plateau Index of presence of plateau, calculated as mean altitude/mean slope NOAA-GLOBE
Forest cover, forestry and forest policies variables
For93 % of forest cover in 1993 GIS layer from FIPI
Natforchg Change in % of land covered by natural forest FIPI and MARD (2003)
Plaforchg Change in % of land covered by planted forest FIPI and MARD (2003)
Protarea % of land assigned as protected area in 2000 GIS layer from MONRE
Allocfor94 % of area allocated to households as forestry land in 1994 GSO (1995)

Allocfor Change in % of area allocated to households as forestry land GSO (1995, 2003)
Forhh94 % of rural households for which forestry is the main activity in 1994 GSO (1995)
Forhh Change in % of rural households working primarily in forestry GSO (1995, 2003)
Saw Change in number of chainsaws by 1000 rural households GSO (1995, 2003)
Agricultural sector and other variables
Irr Change in % of area of annual crops irrigated GSO (1995, 2003)
Yldgr Growth rate of paddy rice yields (%) GSO (1994), MARD (2002)
Freqgr Growth rate of paddy rice cropping frequency (%) GSO (1994), MARD (2002)
MYldgr Growth rate of maize yields (%) GSO (1994), MARD (2002)
Cattgr Growth rate of livestock density (%) GSO (1994), MARD (2002)
Peren Change in % of area covered by perennial crops GSO (1995, 2003)
Nagrhh Change in % of rural households working primarily in non-agricultural sector GSO (1995, 2003)
Popden94
Rural population density in 1994 (people=km
2
)
GSO (1995, 2003)
Interaction terms
AllocÂslop Interaction between forestry land distributed to households and mean slope
AllocÂfreq Interaction between forestry land distributed to households and growth rate of paddy cropping frequency
AllocÂmyÂsl Interaction between forestry land distributed to households, growth rate of maize yields, and mean slope
FreqÂslop Interaction between growth rate of rice cropping frequency and mean slope
YldÂslop Interaction between growth rate of rice yields and mean slope
MYldÂslop Interaction between growth rate of maize yields and mean slope
PerenÂplat Interaction between change in % of area covered by perennial crops and plateau
All variables are measured at the district level (unit of observation). Growth rates are annual. All change and growth rate variables are measured between
1994 and 2001, except for forest cover where the period is 1993–2002.
P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197186
multiple linea r regressions, using a spatial lag model with a
maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) (Anselin, 1988)with

the Geoda software (Anselin, 2005), to account for spatial
dependency in our data. We built two models where the
dependent variables were specified as differences in,
respectively, natural and planted forest areas between
1993 and 2002. Independent variables representing land use
were also expressed as differences between 1994 and 2001,
to measure how land use changes affected changes in forest
cover. However, some variables were not specified as
differences: biophysical and accessibility variables were
assumed to be unchanged during the 10-year period of
study, and initial forest cover in 1993 was included as a
measure of forest abundance. In some cases, we included
the variable measuring initial values along with the
2001–1994 difference: the forestry land already distributed
in 1994 measured the implementation of the policy for
1993–1994, and population density and percentage of
households living mainly from forestry activities in 1994
were proxies for the demand in forest products and land.
The spatial lag model is expressed as
y ¼ rWy þ Xb þ ,
with N being the number of observations and K the
number of independent variables, y is a N Â 1 vector of the
dependent varia ble, W a N Â N spatial weights matrix, r
the spatial lag coefficient, X a N Â K matrix of independent
variables, b a K Â 1 vector of coefficients for independent
variables, and  a N Â 1 vector of the disturbance term.
This model was chosen after a diagnostic procedure
whose full results are not presented here. We started with
ordinary least square (OLS) regression. The presence of
spatial dependency was detected by a series of Lagrange

Multiplier (LM) tests (Anselin, 2005). This issue can be
dealt with either by a spatial lag or a spatial error model
(Anselin, 1988). Spatial error models introduce a spati al
autoregressive error term. This is appropriate when error
terms are spatially correlated, which is theoretically due to
an unspecified variable affecting the dependent variable
similarly in neighbouring locations (e.g. a provincial-level
policy). LM tests rejected that model, suggesting that
spatial dependency in our data was not mainly due to a
misspecification. Spatial lag models are appropriate when
values of the dependent variable in one location influence
values of this dependent variable in neighbouring locations
(e.g. due to imitation strategies of neighbouring farmers).
The dependent variable in one place can be affected by
surrounding values of the dependent or independent
variables. A spatial lag model identifies the variables
contributing to spatial dependency by verifying which
parameters are affected by inclusion of the spatial
autoregressive term. Parameters from spatial lag models
indicate the marginal effect of a variable in one district
while parameters from OLS regression indicate the
aggregate effe ct of a variable, including contributions from
the neighbourhood. The explanatory power in the spatial
lag model can be estimated by a pseudo-R
2
, calculated as
the squared correlation between observed and predicted
values of the dependent variable. It is not directly
comparable to the OLS R
2

. Log-Likelihood (Log-L.)
values are also used to compare alternative models,
including the OLS: a higher value indicates a better fit of
the model. Diagnostic tests showed that the spatial lag
model represented our data correctly and took the spatial
dependency into accoun t.
In our implementation of the spatial lag model, we used
a spatial weight matrix based on distance between district
centres, provided these distances were less than 67 km.
Larger distances were assigned a weight of zero. This
threshold was the minimum to ensure that every district
had at least one neighbour. A sensitivity analysis revealed
that results were robust to other thresholds (100, 150, 300,
and 600 km) and that these larger thresholds did not
improve the model fit based on the Log-L. criterion. We
also verified that results were robust to heteroscedasticity
in residuals by using HC0 standard error estimates (Long,
2000) in OLS regression. As this did not modify OLS
results, we assumed it was also vali d for the MLE spatial
model.
Several interaction terms were computed. To analyse the
differential impact of agricultural intensification and the
distribution of forestry land on districts more or less
suitable for agriculture, we computed the product between,
on the one hand, mean slope and, on the other hand, rice
cropping frequency, rate of increase of rice and maize
yields, and percentage of forestry land distributed. To
measure a possible synergy or redundancy between new
forest policies and agricultural intensification, we com-
puted the product between, on the one hand , the

percentage of forestry land distributed and, on the other
hand, first the cropping frequency and then the rate of
increase of rice yield. For maize, we computed the product
between percent age of forestry land distributed, rate of
increase of yield, and mean slope, as this crop is mainly
found in mountains. To test whether new forest regulations
were less effective in remote areas due to weaker
government enforcement capacities, we computed interac-
tion terms between allocated land and, respectively, mean
slope, distances to cities, and road densities. None of these
latter terms were significant and they were therefore not
used. Finally, we measured whether a district terrain could
be characterised as a plateau by dividing mean altitude by
mean slope (after adding 1 to slope to avoid division by
zero). This index was multiplied by the change in area
under peren nial crops to evaluate the differential impact of
the development of these crops in the Central Highlands as
opposed to the rest of the country.
Some variables introduced notable collinearity in the
model, e.g. rate of increase of rice and maize yields,
and especially their interaction terms with slope and
forestry policies. In each case, only one of the collinear
variables was significant. It was thus retained in the
regression models. Change in agricultur al mechanisation
and in rural population density, and the interaction term
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P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197 187
between change in perennial crops and the presence of a
plateau were also collinear. All three variables represent
agricultural colonisation in the Central Highlands. We

retained the interaction term and removed the two other
variables. For the same reason, we did not include the
accessibility variables for the model of natural forest
change.
Results
Natural and planted forests displayed different spatial
patterns of forest cover change during the study period
(Figs. 4 and 5,andTables 2 and 3). Natural forest
regeneration occurred mainly in the northern and central
coastal mountains, in districts with high slope and thus low
suitability for agriculture, and far from urban centres.
Districts close to cities and in river deltas, where agriculture
is most profitable, and in the Central Highlands region
were less affected by reforestation or even sti ll affected by
net deforestation. Tree plantations were more scattered
geographically and located mainly in midlands and along
coasts, where the road network is more developed, with no
relation to the slope of districts. Few forest plantations
were observed in peri-urban areas and in river deltas.
Regression models for both natural and planted forests
had a high explanatory power (Table 4). Log-L. values
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0 500 Kilometer
s
% Change in natural forests
< 0
0
0 - 10
10 - 20
> 20

N
Fig. 4. Natural forest cover changes.
0 500 Kilometer
s
% Change in planted forests
< 0
0
0 - 10
10 - 20
> 20
N
Fig. 5. Planted forest cover changes.
Table 2
Forest cover in 1993 and 2002 for selected regions
Region Natural forests Planted forests All forests
1993 2002 1993 2002 1993 2002
Country 23.99 29.99 0.64 5.83 24.63 35.82
All mountains 29.96 40.55 0.45 5.44 30.40 45.99
Central Highlands 52.83 50.72 0.27 2.41 53.10 53.13
Northern Mountains 16.79 33.15 0.62 6.26 17.40 39.40
In % of area. ‘‘All mountains’’ refers to districts with mean slope above
2:5

. Sources: FIPI and MARD, 2003.
Table 3
Pearsons’s correlations between forest cover change and geographical
variables
Variable Changes in natural forests Planted forests
Dtown 0.15*** À0.05
Dcity 0.15*** 0.02

Unpavroad À0.11* 0.20****
Pavroad À0.13** À0.15***
Highway À0.03 0.10*
Slope 0.43**** 0.05
PoorSoil 0.06 0.08*
*, po0:05; **, po0:01; ***, po0:001; ***, po0:0001.
P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197188
indicated that the spatial lag models had a better fit than
the OLS models. The model for change in natural forests
showed no direct influence from accessibility and biophy-
sical variables at the district level. The area of remaining
forest in 1993 was positively associated with forest
recovery. However, increased tree planting was associated
with a decline in natural forest cover. The other variables
regarding forestry economy were not significant. Concern-
ing forestry policies, the amount of land already allocated
to households in 1994 had no explanat ory power but the
area of forestry land distributed during the study period
was significantly associated with natural forest regrowth.
The interaction term between forest allocation and rate of
increase in mountain maize yields was marginally signifi-
cant and negative. Protected areas were not significant.
Natural forest regeneration was not affected by change in
rice cropping frequency and affected negatively by change
in maize yields. However, in both cases, the interaction
terms associating these variables with mean slope were
highly significant and positively associated with increases in
natural forests. The net effect of increases in maize yields
and cropping frequency is positive for mean slopes steeper
than 2:5


(for maize) and 1:4

(for rice cropping frequency).
The interaction term associating the change in area covered
by perennial crops with the index measuring the presence
of plateau in a district terrain was negatively associated
with forest cover change. The rate of increase in cattle was
marginally positive and change in rural non-farm sector
ARTICLE IN PRESS
Table 4
Descriptive statistics and results of the spatial lag regressions for forest cover change between 1993 and 2002
Variable Descriptive statistics (units see Table 1) Spatial lag regression
Mean SD Natural forest cover
change
Estimate
Planted forest cover
change
Estimate
Dtown 27.09 21.96 NI À0.0404*
Dcity 141.92 85.84 NI À0.00127
Unpavroad 0.21 0.19 NI 6.21**
Pavroad 0.17 0.26 NI À3.56
Highway 0.05 0.07 NI 22.0**
Slope 2.39 2.79 À0.685 0.655
PoorSoil 14.95 17.61 0.0427 0.0192
Plateau 44.75 53.55 0.0531*** À0.0195
For93 13.21 18.50 À0.259**** À0.0699**
Plaforchg 6.10 7.64 À0.189** –
Protarea 3.08 8.90 0.0895 ND

Forhh94 0.28 1.10 À0.651 0.538
Forhh 0.12 1.41 0.676 0.828**
Saw 3.08 5.64 0.0403 À0.0518
Allocfor94 2.12 3.19 0.0401 0.608****
Allocfor 4.24 7.68 0.559**** 0.418****
AllocÂslop 19.28 38.66 NI À0.0631**
AllocÂfreq 3.77 10.38 NI À0.154**
Irr 2.69 10.20 À0.00539 0.00772
Yldgr 3.90 1.94 NI 0.955***
YldÂslop 11.08 14.21 NI À0.183*
Freqgr 1.29 1.65 À0.649 À0.584*
FreqÂslop 2.47 3.97 0.489*** 0.358**
MYldgr 7.68 3.94 À0.407** NI
MYldÂslop 18.98 23.74 0.164**** NI
AllocÂmyÂsl 139.88 290.30 À0.00625* NI
Cattgr 2.99 6.57 0.152* À0.131*
Peren 2.45 3.71 À0.161 0.315*
PerenÂplat 174.02 573.41 À0.00439*** À0.000549
Nagrhh À0.92 11.82 À0.00949 0.0255
Popden94 376.93 399.35 À0.00645*** À0.00546****
Spatial lag 0.307**** 0.324****
Constant 6.98** 2.03
n 344 345
Pseudo R sq. 0.58 0.52
Log-L. À1178.4 À1072.9
Log-L. of the OLS model À1185.7 À1080.8
*po0:05, **po0:01, ***po0:001, ****po0:0001. NI: variable not included in the model but non-significant (see text). ND, no determination; –;
.dependent variable.
P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197 189
was not significant. Finally, population density in 1994 was

negatively related to change in natural forests and the
spatial lag variable was positive and highly significant.
In the model for planted forests, accessibility measures
were significantly associated with positive change. Planted
forests increased more rapidly in districts with higher
densities of unpaved roads and highways, close to
provincial capitals. Distance to the main cities was not
significant. Only the density of main roads had a negative
effect, perhaps as it is highest in peri-urban areas where the
land rent is higher than the returns of forest plantations.
Biophysical conditions were not significant. Results also
showed that forests were more likely to be planted in areas
with a low forest cover in 1993 and where the share of
population working in forestry had increased—both a
cause and a consequence. The mechanisation of forestry
practices was not significant. The areas allocated to
forestry already distributed to households in 1994 were
related to increases in planted forests, as well as the areas of
newly allocated forestry land. However, the latter effect
was reduced in mountains and in districts with a higher rate
of increase in rice cropping frequency. The rate of increase
in paddy yields was associated with an increase in planted
forests but this effect was weaker in mountain areas. The
rate of increase in rice cropping frequency was negatively
but very marginally associated with change in plantations.
In districts with steep slopes, this association became
positive and more significant. The increase in perennial
crops had a positive relationship with increases in forest
plantations, while an increase in cattle density had a
negative one. Population density, non-agricultural popula-

tion, and spatial lag parameters were related with changes
in plantations in the same way as with changes in natural
forests.
Discussion
Methodological issues
Our results are robust to the model specification.
However, their reliability depends on data quality. Official
forest cover statistics in Vietnam have been criticised for
several reasons (Lang, 2001). In a quan titative, compara-
tive analysis of forest statistics and land cover maps from a
variety of sources, Meyfroidt and Lambin (to appear) show
that: (i) the area and spatial pattern of forest cover on the
FIPI maps used in this study is consistent with the most
reliable data, and (ii) these data for Vietnam indicate a
turning point of forest cover around the first half of the
1990s, follo wed by an increase in forest cover of a similar
magnitude as represented on the FIPI maps. Forest cover
change was measured as the change in the percentage of
land covered by each type of forest between 1993 and 2002.
We did not use rates of forest cover change as they are
sensitive to the base level (the forest cover in 1993), which
was close or equal to zero for a number of districts.
Changes in percentage are also more comparable with
other variables, such as percentages of land allocated for
forestry to households, of land classified as protected areas,
etc. However, by counting onl y the net change in forest
cover, the destruction of old-growth forests was aggregated
with changes in secondary regrowth and therefore the
quality of the new forests cannot be assessed. Similarly, it
was not possible to test whether the factors decreasing

deforestation were different from those promoting refor-
estation (as suggested by Grainger, 1995). Finally, large
negative forest cover changes can only be measured where
large forest areas were present in 1993. This may partly
explain why changes in natural forests were more
associated (negatively) with 1993 forest cover than changes
in planted forests. These problems did not arise for plante d
forests, as the percentage of planted forest cover in 1993
was negligible and very few districts experienced a decrease
in planted forest.
In a regression analysis of the distribution of forestry
land against biophysical features, accessibility, population,
and land use variables (in 1994), only the slope of the
terrain was significant and positive. Actually, forestry land
is mainly defined by its steep slope. As we controlled for
slope in the regression models of forest cover change, we
assumed that the residual effect of the forestry land
variable represented the policy implementation. Changes
in perennial crops and in plantation forests were not
correlated (Pearson’s R: 0:01, p ¼ 0:76). There was thus no
overlap between these two land uses (e.g. fruit trees that
may have been included in both categories). Cropping
frequency was computed by combining several methods,
given the high heterogeneity of farming systems in
Vietnam. For the northern part of the country and the
Central Highlands, with shifting cultivation and two rice
cropping seasons, one being dominant, the total area sown
during the year divided by the maximum area sown during
one season was computed, as in Minot (2003). For the
other regions with little shifting cultivation and up to three

rice cropping seasons without necessarily a dominant one,
the total area sown divided by the area under rice
cultivation was computed, as in Minot and Goletti
(2000). Results were also consis tent with those of Castella
and Er out (2002). The variable for change in irrigated area
accounted mainly for two rather localised changes: dykes
and irrigation infrastructures were built in the southern
Mekong Delta, allowing for a second crop in areas
reclaimed from seasonal seawater invasion, and significant
areas of irrigated agriculture were replaced by perennial
crops in the eastern Red River Delta. In the rest of the
country, changes in irrigated surfaces were included in the
cropping frequency variable. Protected areas were initially
represented by two variables: areas already protected
before 1993 and newly created natural reserves between
1993 and 2000. As they displayed similar patterns, they
were aggregated. The lack of explanatory power for
protected areas therefore cannot be imputed to a time lag
after the creation of parks. The variable on the percentage
of households working primarily in the non-farm sector
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P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197190
was strongly correlated with the share of household income
coming from non-agricultural sources (for 2001, Pea rson’s
R: 0:74, po0:0001), which increases confidence in this
indicator. The soil quality variable may be more question-
able as the binary categorisation in poor versus good
quality soils might be too simplistic. Finally, we lacked
adequate data to measure changes in firewood consump-
tion, and hydropower dams and reservoirs.

Although the results suggest distinct regional dynamics
(between uplands and lowlands, between northern moun-
tains and Central Highlands), the analysis did not include
regional dummy variables. Instead, we used continuous
biophysical variables (slope an d plateau) that are more
relevant to our hypotheses and that allow interpretations
based on physical rather than administrative regions.
Policy and economic responses to forest scarcity
The main policy response to forest scarcity was the
forestry land allocation to households, which restricted
slash-and-burn cultivation on hillsides and provided
incentives for a sound managem ent of allocated land.
Sikor (2001; 2006), in a study of the actual allocation
system in a northwestern commune, argued that the policy
largely failed to reduce slash-and-burn cultivation because
it conflicted with customary land tenure systems, thus
inducing non-compliance by villagers. Local authorities
were inclined to let local people, often members of their
kin, cultivate their plots illegally rather than strictly enforce
the rules of a physically and politically distant (due to
ethnic background) government (Sikor, 2001). Investiga-
tions by Nguyen (2006) and Thanh and Sikor (2006) also
describe how social differentiation and the discrepancies
between legal rights and actual entitlements attenuated the
impact of this policy. However, despite these shortcomings,
our results suggest that this policy had a positive impact on
natural forest cover.
Our results also suggest that forestry land allocation
largely failed to stimulate the expansion of planted forests.
We suspect that the association between forestry land

already distributed in 1994 and the expansion of planta-
tions might be spurious: districts that first started the
allocation pro cedure were perhaps districts with more
developed forestry activities in the first place. For an
average district, the impact on plantations of forestry land
distribution after 1994 is negligible, as this impact
decreases in mountains where most of the allocated
forestry land is situated and in areas where rice cropping
frequency rose the most. This intensification occurs where
growing rice is the most profitable, especially in the south-
eastern region around Ho Chi Minh City. Labour was less
likely to be allocated to forestry there. In mountains, the
limited expansion of planted forests could be due to the
absence of adequate sylvicultural knowledge and proces-
sing infrastructure, and to the few market opportunities for
timber compared to lowland districts. A study in hoa Binh
province showed that, except for the richest farmers, tree
planting was not an economically feasible option (Clement
et al., 2007). In the midlands, where the infrastructure is
more developed, allocated forestry land could provide
profitable returns by planting trees. Other authors have
also commented on the difficulty of stimulating forestry
activities in remote regions because of their poor infra-
structure (Lang , 2002; Ohlsson et al., 2005; Sunderlin,
2006). Actua lly, better accessibility contributed to an
increase in forest plantations, which was also associated
with an increase in the population working in forestry.
Thus, in line with the forestry intensification argument
(Hyde et al., 1996 ), demand from remote markets
stimulated the growth of the forestry sector and of forest

plantations in economically suitable places. However, this
was not the case for natural forests.
At the local level, the positive e ffect of lower forest cover
on reforestation might be due to scarcity-induced increases
in forest stands and the better management of natural
forests by households to meet their needs, as was observed
elsewhere (Hyde et al., 1996; Foster and Rosenzweig,
2003). Our results do not support the argument that the
development of plantations relieves pressure on natural
forests (Sedjo and Botkin, 1997). Actually, at the local
level, natural forests and plantations compete for space,
considering that increases in the latter were partly at the
expense of the former. At an aggregated level, the reverse
might be true, but our model does not allow drawing
conclusions on that point.
Forest regrowth was positively correlated with protected
areas (Pearson’s R ¼ 0:26, po0:0001) but this association
was not significant in the multiple regression. Zingerli
et al. (2002) argue that, around the Ba Be park in the
northern mountains, the reforesta tion observed could be
attributed to agricultural changes and forestry policies
rather than to park regulations that were weakly enforced.
By contrast, in the study by Muller (2003) in the Central
Highlands, protected areas did contribute to forest
regrowth. Sowerwine et al. (1998) conclude for Ba Vi,
another park in the north, that it has not been truly
effective so far, but improvements in park management
and better cooperation with local people might prove more
successful. Cropper et al. (2001) argue that in Thailand,
areas set aside often have a low suitability for agriculture

and thus their status does not really increase the likelihood
of their being cleared for agriculture. This may explain the
positive correlation between protected areas and forest
regrowth as the latter happened mostly in areas with
a low suitability for agriculture. And it may also explain
why protected areas are not signi ficant in the multiple
regression.
In conclusion, reforestation in Vietnam fits several
aspects of the forest scarcity path of forest transition.
New policies were implemented to address the perceived
degradation of forest resources. Economic responses driven
partly by urban and remote markets and probably also by
a perception of local scarcity by rural households also
contributed to reforestation (Mather et al., 1999; Foster
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P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197 191
and Rosenzweig, 2003). Urban and remote markets mainly
stimulated the increase in plantation forests, while local
scarcity stimulated the increase in both kinds of forests.
Similar to policies implemented in 19th century Europe
and especially in France (Mather et al., 1999), the
Vietnamese government restricted the use of forests while
smallholders opposed the new regulations, in particular
when they had no other means of subsistence (Sowerwine
et al., 1998; Sowerwine, 2004; McElwee, 2004). Actually,
several authors showed that these policies threatened
the livelihood of farmers who did not have access to
paddy fields and had to rely on shifting cultivation
(Castella et al., 2006, for Na Ri district in Bac Kan
province, Jakobsen et al., 2007 in a village of North

Central Vietnam). However, households were also involved
in forest management, and they had access and some
collecting rights to their allocated forest plots. Most
case studies point out that better management of
Vietnam’s forest resources has been or will be achieved
by negotiated local involvement and shared benefits
rather than by exclusion (Sowerwine et al., 1998; McElwee,
2004; Nguyen, 2006). In situations similar to those in
Vietnam, where the vast majority of households still
depends on the land for subsistence and the government’s
capacity to enforce unpopular regulations is limited, this
approach may not only be more equitable but also more
effective. In the long run, rural depopulation is likely to
ease these conflicts.
Paddy rice and maize intensification
A superficial analysis of the pattern of natural forest
regeneration observed in Vietnam is also consistent with
the economic development path of forest transition, with a
redistribution of forests on marginal land, following
agricultural intensification and economic development.
Several processes influenced agricultural intensification in
Vietnam during the 1990s. The allocation of paddies to
households and the liberalisation of rice trade created
incentives for farmers to devote more labour per land unit
(Fatoux et al., 2002), invest in land improvements (Do and
Iyer, 2003), and produce surpluses for new market outlets
(Minot and Goletti, 2000; Luu, 2003). Yield-increasing
inputs such as improved seed varieties and fertilisers also
became available to farmers with the emergence of market
networks (Pingali et al., 1997; Tran and Kajisa, 2006).

Finally, several case studies in the northern mountains
showed that land shortages led to a reduction in fallows
and to soil erosion on hillsides (Pandey and Dang, 1998;
Sikor, 2001; Wezel et al., 2002). This was reinforced by
restrictions on land clearance, following new forestry
policies, as shown in several case studies (Castella et al.,
2006; Clement et al., 2007; Jakobsen et al., 2007). The
relative profitability of slash-and-burn cultivation in the
uplands therefore declined compared to the valleys.
The increase in cropping frequency in mountain paddies
was one of the main factors contributing to natural forest
regeneration and to the growth of plantations. For
example, the development of rice multi-cropping in Bac
Kan province allowed many households to become food
self-sufficient without having to rely on upland rice
cultivation anymore (Castella and Erout, 2002). The
construction of new terraces also increased food produc-
tion, for example in Chieng Dong of Son La province
(Sikor, 2006). Given the labour requirement to increase the
terraced area or grow a second (or third) crop on irrigated
plots, without mechanisation, little labour was left for
slash-and-burn agriculture and the upland plots were thus
either abandoned or planted with trees, depending on
resource endowments and opportunities.
The increase in rice yields, on the other hand, had no
direct impact on natural forests but was positive for
forests plantations. Yield increases, although they also
absorbed some of the labour formerly allocated to uplands,
were largely dependent on capital inputs and thus on
market accessibility (Sikor, 2001; Tachibana et al., 2001;

Muller, 2003; Castella et al., 2005). Our results therefore
suggest that, in areas with high accessibility and growing
markets, households were able to benefit from agricultural
inputs, it was profitable to convert abandoned upland
fields to forest plantations, and fores t enterprises were
eager to invest in such plantations. Note that increases in
rice yields were not associated with the expansion of
plantations in the highest mountains, which corresponds
mainly to northwestern Vietnam. Thi s region being the
poorest in the country, with few infrastructures, food
security rather than forest plantations is the first priority
(Minot, 2003).
Together with intensification in paddy fields, the increase
in maize yields was also associated with the abandonment
of marginal plots in mountains. In these regions, maize is
the second main crop, and is used for livestock and
sometimes household consumption (Pandey and Dang,
1998; Minot, 2003). During the 1990s, maize increasingly
replaced rice and cassava on hillsides, following the
introduction of high-yielding varieties and the increased
use of maize as fodder for livestock raised for urban
markets (Sikor, 2001; Sikor and Pham, 2005; Wezel et al.,
2002; Minot, 2003). In Bac Kan province, households with
poor access to paddies after land allocation often adopted
maize to maintain a viable upland cultivation system
(Castella an d Erout, 2002). Sikor (2001) showed in a
northwestern commune that the adoption of maize
decreased fores t encroachment, as it is cultivated on
permanent fields while upland rice and cassav a are part
of a fallow system.

Agricultural diversification and specialisation
In our model and in case studies, the expansion of
perennial crops had mixed impacts on forests, depending
on the region. In the Central Highlands (with high values
of the plateau index), the expansion of large fields of
perennial crops (mainly coffee, but also tea, rubber, and
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P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197192
other crops), spurred by market growth (urban markets in
Vietnam and liberalisation of external trade), road building
and government-supported colonisation, was the main
cause of deforestation during the 1990s (De Koninck, 1999;
Muller, 2003; D’haeze et al., 2005). In other mountain
regions, perennial crops (tea, coffee, fruit trees) were most
often part of a strategy of diversification by farmers who
were now self-sufficient in rice from their own paddy fields
and who used their surplus labour, capital and/or
government subsidies to convert degraded upland fields
to perennial crops (Fatoux et al., 2002; Minot, 2003; Sikor
and Pham, 2005). In the plains, the least productive paddy
fields were converted to perennial crops as most of the
available land was already cultivated (Kerkvliet and
Porter, 1995). In these latter cases (with low values of the
plateau index), natural forests were thus unaffected by the
expansion of perennial crops.
In our regression model, perennial crops were associated
with forest plantations, except in the Central Highlands.
This is partly spu rious as both are associated with
accessibility to markets and high paddy rice production:
several studies in Bac Kan province showed that farmers

are reluctant to diversify activities before they achieve food
self-sufficiency and that income from selling rice surpluses
is a source of investment capital (Alther et al., 2002;
Castella and Erout, 2002; Fatoux et al., 2002). Perennial
crops and forest plantations also reinforce each other by
providing households with capital.
The increase in livestock (mainly cattle and pigs) is an
important feature of farming system changes in the
mountains of Vietnam. Its possible effects on forests are
ambiguous: it could decrease upland areas cultivated by
farmers but livestock also requires land, directly for
pastures and indirectly for fodder. Several case studies
showed that livestock and upland crops compete for space
(Eguienta et al., 2002; Sikor, 2006). Our regression results
show that cattle were associated with a decrease in forest
plantations, suggesting a similar competition with forestry.
By contrast, livestock was associated with a slight increase
in natural forests. Farmers who turned to livestock
possibly cultivate less.
Demographic changes
In our regression models, high rural population density
negatively affected natural and planted forest cover. A
higher population leads to greater demand for agricultural
land, and therefore to encroachment on natural forests and
a reduction in the space available for forest plantations.
Households also collect firewood and timber. In densely
populated areas, where land rent is high, wood scarcity
might lead either to an increase in the marketable distance
at which wood products are bought and then transported,
or to an increasing reliance on substitutes (e.g. Ministry of

Forestry, 1992). However, trees were also planted in
densely populated regions: according to MARD (2002),
42% of scattered tree planting between 1996 and 2000 took
place in the two river deltas, the most densely populated
regions of the country. These scattered trees are not
counted in the remote-sensing based forest cover data used
in this study.
During the 1990s, there was no net population decrease
in mountain areas. The rural population density in these
regions increased from 70 to 74 inhabitants per km
2
,
and from 67 to 73 in the northern mountains where
reforestation was the most pronounced. The number of
people living off the land, even excluding forestry and
fisheries, also increased (from around 5.8 to 6.3 million in
the northern mountains, and from 12.1 to 13.0 million
in all the mountain regions). The share of households
living primarily from non-farm activities in the mountains
remained the same, representing 87% of the population
(General Statistical Office, 1995, 2003). Mountains
are defined here as districts with a mean slope exceeding
2:5

. The low migration from the uplands may be explained
by its high cost (Sikor and Pham, 2005; Castella et al.,
2006), by policy restrictions (Lundberg, 2004), and by
the low demand for labour in the industrial sector
(Jenkins, 2004). Although ill egal or free migration in-
creased and the government progressively lost control of

the process, the policies restricting free migration were
only questioned in the 1990s (Hardy, 2000). The relaxing
of constraints on migrations increased rural–urban
movements (Dang et al., 1997) but, thus far, mostly from
the lowlands near cities. According to the 1999 Population
and Housing Census (General Statistical Office, 2001),
63% of migrants to Hanoi between 1994 and 1999 came
from the Red River delta or from Da Nang or Ho Chi
Minh Ci ty. Only around 10% came from northern
mountains. Thus, although migration to the Central
Highlands could have contributed to decrease population
growth in the other mountainous regions, the depopulation
and/or deagrarianisation of marginal regions have so far
not taken place and did not contribute to the growth of
forests.
The spatial lag parameters
Both spatial lag variables, which measured the influence
of neighbours on the reforestation of a given district,
were positive and highly significant. Among the significant
parameters, only those for rice cropping frequency and
yields, and forestry land distribution for natural forests
were different (higher) in the OLS regressions compared
to the MLE spatial models. This indicates that the
spatial models indeed took into account the spatial
dependency introduced by the inclusion of agricultural
variables at the provincial level. It also shows that forestry
land distribution affects forests not only in one district
but also in its neighbours. One could interpret this
observation in terms of a diffusion process: an early and
successful implementation of the policy in some districts

may have facilitated its rapid adoption by neighbouring
districts.
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Implications for the forest transition theory
While our analysis supports elements of the forest
scarcity path leading to a forest transition, evidence in
support of the economic development path is ambiguous.
The role of urbanisation and industrialisation in taking
manpower out of agriculture is not measured by our data
as the agricultural labour force has not declined. Agricul-
tural intensification that has occurred has contributed to
the forest transition, but mostly in the marginal regions of
the country. The agricultural intensification that has taken
place in the most favourable regions did not drive
reforestation in the marginal regions. In the mountainous
regions of Vietnam, our study suggests that intensification
drove reforestation largely by moving labour from slopes
to valleys, as driven by a growing population and
diminishing returns from hillside cultivation following a
shortening of the fallow cycle—a
`
la Boserup. Intensifica-
tion was also driven by policy changes that removed
barriers to increased labour inputs in paddies, and by
market integration that allowed farmers to benefit from
inputs. There is no evidence that industrialisation or
increasing trade of agricultural products from mountain
regions (fruits, livestock) had a significant impact on
forests.

The case of Vietnam suggests the existence of a third
forest transition path, associated with agricultural intensi-
fication by smallholders in marginal regions. On this path,
there is no decline in agriculture and no depopulation in
less favourable regions. A growing population drives
intensification and diversification of agriculture locally by
increasing labour inputs on the plots with the highest agro-
ecological potential. This path is more likely to occur in
geographic con texts with poor land suitability for agricul-
ture, where it is costly to intensify agriculture on plots
previously used extensively, e.g. in mountains where
irrigated agriculture is restricted to valley bottoms. Farm-
ers therefore invest their labour to improve the manage-
ment of plots already intensively cultivated and only slowly
extend them, e.g. by constructing new terraces (Tachibana
et al., 2001; Reid et al., 2006). Angelsen and Kaimowitz
(2001) hypothesized that, in long-settled regions with high
population densities, land scarcity and well-defined land
tenure rights, the increa sing profitability of agriculture is
less likely to drive colonisation than in other regions.
Abandoned land is thus unlikely to be settled by new-
comers. Compared to other mountainous regions, the
uplands of Vietnam have a high population density and
land colonisation there became much more difficult after
property rights to agricultural and forestry land were
distributed to households. This third forest transition path
is supported by Netting (1993) and other studies, e.g. in the
Philippines (Shively and Martinez, 2001) and in some
respects among the Shuar Indians of Eastern Ecuador
(Rudel et al., 2002).

The path of forest transition associated with agricultural
intensification by smallholders is connected to the forest
scarcity path as both are driven by land scarcity, while the
economic development path is driven by labour scarcity.
Note however that this third path may also correspond to
the initial steps of the economic development path.
Actually, in Vietnam, agricultural intensification was partly
due to the increasing availability of inputs and to new
product outlets, thanks to improved accessibility and
development of markets. A spatial redistribution of land
use was initiated at a regional scale with the development
of maize for fodder and of timber plantations in suitable
regions. In the future, perennial crops and livestock are
likely to increase in mountains, while rice from the
lowlands is likely to reach upland markets. In recent years,
urban migration greatly increased and may, in the future,
affect populations from the mountain regions. The non-
farm sector is playing an increasing role in the economy
of mountain regions (Rigg, 2001; Castella et al., 2005;
Sikor and Pham, 2005), notably by providing capital to
farmers for agricultural improvements (Fatoux et al., 2002;
Reardon et al., 1994). The above factors were not
highlighted by the statistical results given the short period
of the study.
In densely popula ted regions such as in many parts of
southeast Asia, depopulation and the decline of agriculture
in marginal regions are unlikely to drive the initial steps of
a forest transition, as it would require a massive rural
exodus that urban labour markets would not be able to
absorb rapidl y. Similarly, in France, Mather et al. (1999)

suggested that significant reforestation may already have
happened before the onset of rural depopulation. In Korea,
the turni ng point may have been in the late 1960s, due to
agricultural intensification by smallholders following a
land reform, while the labour force shift towards industry
only occurred in the late 1970s (Klock, 1995). Thus, one
possible way to start a forest transition along the economic
development path may be by increasing agricultural
productivity, e.g. in response to population growth rein-
forced by emerging markets in marginal regions where land
scarcity makes agricultural expansion unlikely. Another
way may be the decline of a region’s agriculture with rural
depopulation, in less densely populated areas such as in
regions of Latin America. This happened for example in
small countries with massive foreign subsidies such as
Puerto Rico and El Salvador (Rudel et al., 2000; Aide and
Grau, 2004; Hecht et al., 2006).
Conclusion
According to our national-scale statistical modell ing and
to local case studies, forest regrowth in Vietnam was not
due to a single process or policy but to a combination of
economic and political responses to forest and land
scarcity, economic growth, and market integration at the
scale of the country. The distribution of forestry land to
households, new forest management practices, and food
crop intensification were combined in ‘‘push and pull’’
effects to decrease the footprint of agriculture on hillsides.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
P. Meyfroidt, E.F. Lambin / Land Use Policy 25 (2008) 182–197194
Land scarcity provided strong incentives for agricultural

intensification and the sound management of forests. The
emerging forest transition theory identified two possible
paths. In Vietnam, over the last decade, the forest scarcity
path was undoubtedly at work. Some elements of the
economic development path were also present—i.e. the
intensification of agriculture due to policy reforms,
economic growth and market integration—but not asso-
ciated with the depopulation of marginal regions. How -
ever, the economic development path may well become
more relevant in the future. An alternative forest transition
path could correspond to Vietnam’s situation: a small-
holder agricultural intensification path. Population growth
and land scarcity drove an intensification of agric ulture,
mainly based on increased labour inputs on the most
suitable plots of the marginal regions, and contributed to
the abandonment of the least suitable plots and their
reforestation. Despite an increase in forest cover during the
1990s, the problem s associated with forests in Vietnam are
far from over. Destruction of old-growth forests continues,
especially in the Central Highlands. The high population
densities in marginal mountainous areas still threaten the
sustainability of forest ecosystems. Although the increase
in food crop production has been associated with an
increase in forest area, future developments of market
agriculture, mainly livestock, could still reverse this trend.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Dr Duong Tien Duc
and the staff of the Forest Science Institute of Vietnam,
and Mr Nguyen Van Thuy from the Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment for their valuable help to

gather the data necessary for this research.
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