Bsc macro market 2022 2023
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Macro economy and Stock market 2022 – 2023
BSC Research
12/2022
1
|2
CONTENT
01
02
03
04
|3
MACRO ECONOMY 2023-2024
MACRO UPDATE: FORECAST 2023-2024
5YR AVG
2022
(15-19)
Scenario 1
2023
Scenario 2
2024
2023
|4
Consensus 2023
2024
Min
Max
GDP (YoY%)
6.8
8.6
6.2
6.3
6.7
6.6
2.1
7.2
CPI (YoY%)
3.9
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.3
3.1
3.2
5.5
Export (YoY%)
12.1
11.8
8.5
12.9
10.6
13.6
Import (YoY%)
11.5
9.7
8.3
12.1
10.0
12.8
Policy rate (%)
5.65
6.0
7.5
6.5
7.0
6.0
22,665
23,615
24,400
24,200
23,900
23,700
24,800
24,000
USD/VND
•
Monetary policy: Tightening Inflation pressure + high global interest rate
•
Fiscal policy: Highest annual public investment value
•
Import/export : Slowdown as Global economic growth weaken.
•
Exchange rate : Stabilize reasonable interest rate difference + tourism sector recovered
Referred report: Vietnam economy recover ; Impact of declining interest rate
4
MACRO UPDATE: SCENARIO ASSUMPTION
Factors
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
|5
Vietnam
•
SBV: monetary Policy
Strongly tighten
Tighten
•
MPI: Stimulus package
Slowly disbursed
Quickly disbursed
•
CPI
High
Normal
•
Corp-bond market recovered
Slow
Quick
Global
•
Global economy slow down
Strong
Weak
•
Global inflation cooling
2H2023
1H2023
•
Tightening monetary policy (FED)
>5% in 2023
5% in 2023
•
US Economy
Recession
Slow down
•
China reopening
2H2023
1H2023
•
Ukraine War
2H2023
1H2023
•
US - China tension
High
Low
5
MACRO UPDATE: MONETARY TIGHTENING
M2 YTD%
|6
Credit growth YTD%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
20.0%
18.0%
12.00%
12.00%
16%
14.0%
10.0%
5.5%
16.0%
12.0%
12.0%
10.0%
6.0%
8.0%
4.0%
14.0%
8.0%
6.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Scenario 1
2021
2022
2023
2024
2016
2017
2018
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
2019
2020
2021 2022FC 2023
Scenario 2
2024
Government Target
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
• High inflation
• Normal inflation
• Strict corporate bond regulations
• Loose corporate bond regulations
• High pressure on SBV monetary policy
• Lower pressure on SBV monetary policy
→ credit growth and M2 growth < or = 2022.
→ credit and M2 growth are > 2022.
Source: BSC, Fiinpro, Bloomberg
6
MACRO UPDATE: HIGH INFLATION HEADWINDS
|7
7.00
6.00
Scenario
5.00
4.2
%
4.00
4.4
3.00
3.34
2.00
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
4.00
Year
2023
2024
2023
2024
3.10
1.00
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
3.1%
Pork price
+1.8%
+0.4%
+0.5%
+0.6%
Oil price
+0.6%
-0.2%
-0.0%
-0.3%
CPI YoY
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/20 01/21 01/22 01/23 01/24
CPI
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Core CPI
Government Target
Scenario 1:
• Electricity price (+8%) - 2023,
• Medical service price slightly up (+15%) -2023,
• Oil price at 96.3 USD/barrel (+17%, Global means)
• Pork price at 80,000 VND/kg (+ 52% YoY)
Scenario 2:
• Electricity price, (unchanged)
• Medical service (unchanged,)
• Oil price at 82 USD/barrel (0%, Global low)
• Pork price at 60,000 VND/kg. (+14.5% YoY)
Source: GSO, Bloomberg
7
MACRO UPDATE: MONETARY EXPANSIONARY
|8
SBV Monetary tools
Monetary tools
Easing
Neutral
Tightening
Credit growth
X
Interest rate
X
Exchange rate
X
Required reserve
X
Open Market operations
X
Source: BSC, Fiinpro, Bloomberg
8
MACRO UPDATE: CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE
Issued by sectors
Maturity time
400
300
250
200
150
100
50
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
-
2018
VND Thousands billions
350
|9
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Real estate
Bank
Electricity, water & petrol
Financial services
Travel and Leisure
Construction and Materials
Food & Beverage
Cars and spare parts
36.9%
29.2%
0.0%
7.5%
0.0%
5.3%
15.8%
0.0%
35.1%
36.4%
0.0%
10.2%
0.0%
4.0%
7.4%
0.0%
32.5%
41.2%
5.2%
3.1%
4.9%
4.5%
0.8%
4.6%
42.3%
28.3%
9.8%
2.8%
3.8%
3.4%
4.0%
0.5%
46.8%
30.7%
5.1%
4.0%
3.6%
3.3%
2.3%
1.8%
Industrial Goods & Services
0.2%
0.6%
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
Basic Resources
Personal & Household Goods
Information Technology
Chemistry
Media
Medical
Retail
Telecommunication
Insurance
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.6%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
56,921
51,549
282,830
458,778
775,888
Total value (VND Billion)
Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg
9
MACRO UPDATE: CORPORATE BOND
Bond issued by sector
Construction & Materials
Real estate
Banks
Financial Services
Personal & Household Goods
Food & Beverage
Chemicals
Basic Resources
Industrial Goods & Services
Health Care
Technology
Retail
Communication
Utilities
Travel & Leisure
Automobiles & Parts
Telecommunications
Insurance
Total
2020
15,376
193,953
129,760
12,727
7,282
18,234
100
6,669
7,624
152
300
250
135
44,849
17,468
2,500
1,400
458,778
2021
25,237
363,359
238,026
31,397
3,685
18,045
470
4,543
7,934
135
775
425
39,523
28,233
14,100
775,888
2022
6,024
82,680
133,775
15,374
2,332
5,278
940
1,230
4,510
489
1,000
2,531
3,108
7,234
230
266,734
|10
Maturity Year
Maturity value
Maturity
Month
2023
367,175
1
18,154
2
6,348
3
20,706
4
25,264
157,646
5
37,970
89,631
6
44,495
7
48,038
8
45,678
9
34,693
10
18,592
20,758
11
17,893
14,163
12
49,347
1,447,548
Total
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Total
400,014
233,604
64,403
69,450
30,703
Maturity value
220,603
Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research
MACRO UPDATE: REAL ESTATE BOND MATURITIES
Real estate bond maturities in the next years
Maturity time
VHM
NVL
DXG
NLG
DIG
KDH
VPI
HPX
AGG
CEO
PDR
DIG
KBC
BCM
HDG
Total
35
30
20
15
10
5
NVL
CEO
DXG
PDR
NLG
DIG
DIG
KBC
KDH
BCM
2031
2026
2025
2023
2024
-
2022
VND Thousands billions
25
VHM
AGG
|11
VPI
HDG
HPX
2022
8,099
1,348
182
477
2,039
830
230
400
731
493
14,828
Maturity proportion (%)
VHM
NVL
DXG
NLG
DIG
KDH
VPI
HPX
AGG
CEO
PDR
DIG
KBC
BCM
HDG
Total value (VND Billion)
2023
3,834
19,109
861
443
989
1,209
220
2,546
2,900
1,000
33,111
2022
0.00%
54.62%
9.09%
0.00%
0.00%
1.23%
3.21%
13.75%
5.60%
0.00%
1.55%
0.00%
2.70%
4.93%
3.32%
14,828
2024
4,383
5,211
587
935
3,387
423
930
269
3,500
1,000
2,600
23,225
2023
11.58%
57.71%
2.60%
1.34%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
2.99%
3.65%
0.66%
7.69%
0.00%
8.76%
3.02%
0.00%
33,111
2025
4,129
649
300
496
2,500
8,074
2024
18.87%
22.44%
2.53%
4.02%
14.58%
0.00%
1.82%
4.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1.16%
15.07%
4.31%
11.19%
0.00%
23,225
2025
0.00%
51.14%
0.00%
8.04%
0.00%
3.72%
0.00%
6.14%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
30.96%
0.00%
8,074
2026
2,057
7,229
199
4,500
13,985
2026
14.71%
51.69%
1.43%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
32.18%
0.00%
13,985
2031
1,438
1,438
2031
0.00%
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
1,438
Source: Fiinpro,Bloomberg, BSC Research
MACRO UPDATE: FISCAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT SLOWDOWN
|12
Billion VND
Annual Public Investment disbursed
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
792,487
595,423
2016
2017
Targeted
2016
Investment Plan
12M % plan
Total
Central
2019
Scenario 2
2020
2021
Scenario 1
2022
2023
2024
Public investment disbursed
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022FC
274,561 307,661
352,017
383,336
512,037
595,423
94.41
91.13
92.3
89.94
89.46
85.29
91.13
91.42
95.38
92.84
90.25
91.06
792,487
589,961 (Est)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2
70
80
85
85.0
90.4
70
80
85
80.0
89.4
70
80
85
85.0
90.6
7.23
3.91
8.21
12.52
-6.14
17.75
5.81
-12.03
9.78
34.45
59.69
29.95
19.0
28.4
17.1
97.83
95.33
Local
12M % YoY
Total
Central
Local
2018
15.09
14.89
15.15
2023FC
10
13.3
28
2024FC
25.8
29
46.2
-7.0
-7.0
-7.0
-12.4
-12.4
-12.4
Source: BSC, GSO, Fiinpro
12
MACRO UPDATE: IMPORT & EXPORT GROWTH
30.0%
25.00
25.0%
20.00
20.0%
15.00
7.48
15.0%
11.41
9.97
6.13
10.0%
10.00
5.00
5.0%
USD Billion
|13
0.00
0.0%
-5.00
2015
2016
2017
Trade balance (USD Bil)
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
Export Growth %
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021
Import Growth %
2021
2022FC
2022
2023
Scenarior 1
Scenario 1
2024
Scenarior 2
Scenario 2
Average
2023
2024
2023
2024
Export Growth
9.0%
21.4%
13.9%
8.3%
6.9%
19.0%
11.8%
8.5%
12.9%
10.6%
13.6%
12.9%
Import Growth
5.6%
21.3%
11.2%
7.7%
3.6%
26.5%
9.7%
8.3%
12.1%
10.0%
12.8%
12.5%
Trade balance
(USD Bil)
1.78
2.33
8.39
10.42
19.95
4.00
12.65
6.1
10.0
7.5
11.4
6.19
Referred report: US-CN-VN trade relations
Source: GSO, Finnpro
13
MACRO UPDATE: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT REALIZED
FDI realized YoY%
20%
14.8%
15%
10%
12.4%
10.7%
5%
0%
Year
10.9%
2018
2019
2020
2021 2022FC
Scenario
|14
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
2023
2024
2023
2024
8.9%
FDI realized
(bill USD)
19.10
20.38
19.98
19.74
22.66
25.1
27.3
28.2
31.3
Growth (%)
9.1
6.7
-2.0
-1.2
14.8
10.7
8.9
12.4
10.9
-5%
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Source: GSO, Fiinpro
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
• Strong global economic slow down
• Weak global economic slow down.
• Slow disbursement rate of public infrastructure
projects. ( eg: North – South high way project)
• Quick disbursement rate of public infrastructure
projects. ( eg: North – South high way project)
Referred report: US-Vietnam trade relation ; Heavy Industrial Commodity Shifting trend
MACRO UPDATE: USD/VND STABLE
Thousand VND
25.5
25
24.5
24
23.5
23
22.5
22
21.5
21
24.40
23.90
USD/VND
Mean
Max
Scenario 1
24.20
23.70
Scenario 2
Scenario 1:
|15
Others
Q4 22
Q1 23
Q2 23
Q3 23
2023
Median
24,650
24,500
24,350
24,200
23,800
Mean
24,567
24,392
24,217
24,042
23,800
High
25,000
25,000
24,800
24,600
24,400
Low
24,000
23,600
23,400
23,300
23,200
•
FED interest rate: 5%.
•
Weak global economic slow down - >
surplus
Trade
•
Tourism sector recovered
•
Normal inflation -> High real interest rate
Scenario 2:
•
FED interest rate: > 5%
•
Strong global economic slow down - >
surplus.
•
Tourism sector recovered
•
High inflation -> Low real interest rate
->
Trade
USD inflow.
->
USD inflow.
MACRO UPDATE: USD/VND STABLE
USD Exchange rate development
Exchange rate
|16
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
YTD
CNYUSD
6.73%
1.05%
-0.65%
6.24%
9.35%
-8.83%
EURUSD
14.15%
8.81%
6.28%
15.94%
8.11%
-6.90%
KRWUSD
13.22%
8.14%
4.19%
9.81%
1.61%
-9.06%
5.0%
JPYUSD
3.83%
6.11%
6.89%
13.13%
1.64%
-15.72%
0.0%
SGDUSD
8.41%
6.02%
7.11%
8.92%
7.39%
-0.76%
-5.0%
IDRUSD
-0.70%
-7.07%
-3.26%
-5.25%
-5.32%
-8.64%
-10.0%
THBUSD
10.05%
10.02%
18.83%
19.37%
7.92%
-4.75%
MYRUSD
10.45%
8.03%
8.70%
10.45%
7.76%
-5.91%
PHPUSD
-0.75%
-5.53%
-2.36%
3.23%
-2.74%
-8.25%
VNDUSD
0.27%
-1.81%
-1.74%
-1.56%
-0.24%
-3.29%
Average
6.6%
3.4%
4.4%
8.0%
3.5%
-7.2%
8
8
8
9
8
2
49
55
79
95
109
85.7
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
VNDUSD Curncy
KRWUSD Curncy
IDRUSD Curncy
PHPUSD Curncy
CNYUSD Curncy
JPYUSD Curncy
THBUSD Curncy
09/22
05/22
01/22
09/21
05/21
01/21
09/20
05/20
01/20
09/19
05/19
01/19
09/18
05/18
01/18
09/17
05/17
01/17
-25.0%
EURUSD Curncy
SGDUSD Curncy
MYRUSD Curncy
VND Rank
USD Reserve
Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research
MACRO UPDATE: YEARLY HEATMAP
2000
GDP
6.79%
2001
6.19%
2002
6.32%
2003
6.90%
2004
7.54%
2005
7.55%
2006
6.98%
2007
7.13%
2008
5.66%
2009
5.40%
2010
6.42%
2011
6.24%
2012
5.25%
2013
5.42%
2014
5.98%
2015
6.68%
|17
2016
6.21%
2017
6.81%
2018
7.08%
2019
2020
2021
7.02%
2.91%
2.58%
Retail Sales +
Customer Services
18.50% 20.50% 20.90% 23.30% 31.00% 18.60% 24.50% 24.20% 16.00% 12.60% 10.60%
9.50% 10.20% 10.86% 11.70% 11.80%
2.62%
-3.76%
Retail Sales
19.70% 19.00% 19.90% 22.60% 31.50% 18.60% 25.00% 24.10% 15.20% 12.20% 11.30% 10.60% 10.20% 10.89% 12.40% 12.70%
6.78%
0.15%
Hospitalisty
14.40% 28.60% 22.30% 23.50% 26.20% 18.40% 21.80% 27.40% 17.20% 15.20%
Travelling
24.60% 19.90% 30.50% 34.50% 41.80%
Other services
10.50% 23.80% 31.60% 30.50% 31.30% 20.30% 23.80% 22.10% 19.60% 13.30%
0.80%
4.00%
3.00%
9.50%
8.40%
6.60% 12.63% 19.89%
3.50% 15.30%
5.20% 10.70% 11.85%
9.10%
9.80% -12.97% -19.32%
9.50% 12.00% 10.41% 14.10% 12.10% -59.50% -59.90%
9.40%
7.00%
9.30%
9.72%
9.80%
8.50% -4.03% -16.83%
2.60%
6.52% 11.75% 18.13%
6.81%
6.11%
1.84%
0.60%
4.74%
2.98%
5.23%
0.20%
1.81%
Index of Industrial
Production
15.09%
5.93%
8.70%
9.61%
9.00%
8.30% 11.20% 11.40%
6.20%
3.10%
4.76%
Mining
12.14% -0.29% -2.68% -3.72%
2.10% -7.80%
-5.81%
Manufacturing
17.05% 10.34%
CPI YoY
-0.60%
1.90% 28.50% 12.20% 28.10%
7.40%
7.50%
7.97% 12.62% 11.33% 13.80% 12.90% 17.80% 13.70%
9.22% 12.66% 10.91%
Electricity production
7.50%
10.54% 10.41%
Water supply
4.32% -6.60% -7.40% -10.00% -3.20%
9.18%
7.70% 10.80%
9.00% 11.70%
7.00%
4.90%
6.01%
3.30%
3.10%
4.93%
7.61% 10.50%
9.40% 15.70%
5.60%
6.20%
4.30%
2.72%
7.39% 17.41%
8.97% 10.76%
9.14%
6.70% -1.96%
-1.2%
FDI realised
103.70
14.95%
%
FDI registered
74.33% 15.43% 66.20% -6.46% 12.49% -7.95% 41.75% -13.88% -11.83% -6.59% 15.19%
9.94%
Export
3.8%
11.2%
20.6%
31.5%
22.4%
22.8%
21.9%
29.1%
-8.9%
26.5%
34.2%
18.2%
15.2%
13.8%
7.9%
9.0%
21.8%
13.2%
8.5%
6.50% 18.97%
Import
3.7%
21.8%
27.9%
26.5%
15.4%
21.7%
39.7%
28.7% -13.3%
21.3%
25.8%
6.6%
16.0%
12.0%
12.0%
5.6%
21.9%
11.1%
6.9%
3.60% 26.48%
50.5
50.3
52.1
51.3
52.4
52.5
53.8
50.8
PMI
Credit growth
25.48% 32.45% 39.40% 34.93% 22.87% 49.90% 15.82% 37.53% 41.17% 10.90%
Total means of
payment %
Interest O/N
49.9
8.91% 12.52% 14.16% 17.26% 18.25% 18.24% 13.65% 12.13% 12.68%
18.85% 17.69% 16.23% 18.38% 16.90% 12.44% 14.78% 12.83%
9.2%
10.6%
11.8%
4.4%
49.2
3.2%
3.4%
4.9%
3.3%
1.2%
4.5%
1.5%
0.10%
8.93%
0.74%
Source:BSC, GSO, Fiinpro, Bloomberg
MACRO UPDATE: QUARTERLY HEATMAP
GDP
Retail Sales + Customer
Services
Retail Sales
Hospitalisty
Quarterly
accumulated
%YoY
Quarterly
accumulated
%YoY
%YoY
Quarterly
accumulated
%YoY
Detail
Q1.2019 Q2.2019 Q3.2019 Q4.2019 Q1.2020 Q2.2020 Q3.2020 Q4.2020 Q1.2021 Q2.2021 Q3.2021 Q4.2021 Q1.2022 Q2.2022 Q3.2022
6.79% 6.71% 7.31% 6.97% 3.82% 0.36% 2.62% 4.48% 4.48% 6.61% -6.17% 5.22% 5.03% 7.72% 13.67%
11.96% 11.11% 12.18% 12.53%
4.67%
8.04%
5.10%
5.10% -28.27%
-2.83%
4.44% 19.46% 41.72%
13.39% 11.77% 13.18% 13.08%
9.24% 10.72% 9.32% 10.44%
7.67% 1.18%
-9.60% -26.12%
8.30% 12.46%
-7.84% -6.16%
6.84%
-2.97%
5.95% -20.37% 0.78%
-1.36% -55.69% -19.84%
9.48% 11.68% -27.82% -77.77% -59.50% -68.46% -60.08%
-5.67% -93.96% -45.21%
5.76% 16.73% 25.48%
1.18% 44.21% 145.60%
3954.39
1.86% 312.63%
%
-2.53% 17.23% 153.69%
6.44% 10.83% 11.90%
1.00% 5.02% 6.23%
7.04% 12.31% 12.53%
7.10% 4.30% 11.23%
5.25% 6.79% 8.90%
53.23
53.47
52.13
12.89% 21.02% 17.22%
15.93% 15.72% 8.12%
0.82% 9.69% 32.92%
93.26% 3.31% -29.40%
16.94% 12.51% 27.68%
12.26% -85.14%-132.82%
2.13% 1.30% 3.36%
4.95% 4.97% 5.19%
-0.99% 1.19% 4.39%
1.09% 1.98% 3.82%
2.41% 3.37% 3.94%
10.58% 10.01% 36.07%
14.09% 27.41% 27.10%
-1.32% 6.55% 11.07%
Travelling
12.84% 13.29%
Other services
Index of Industrial Production
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity production
Water supply
PMI
Export
Import
FDI realised
FDI registered
Credit growth ΔYTD%
Total means of payment ΔYTD%
Interest O/N
Deposit interest rate
Exchange rate
CPI core YoY
CPI YoY
State budget disbursement
State budget revenue
State budget spending
5.07% 6.29% 9.00% 11.26%
9.16% 9.71% 10.23% 7.39%
-2.12% 2.88% 2.84% -0.44%
11.10% 10.74% 10.75% 8.44%
9.41% 10.36% 10.35% 7.58%
8.45% 7.07% 7.17% 5.65%
50.60
4.67% 9.33% 10.02% 7.25%
8.95% 12.92% 8.85% 3.43%
0.84% 10.91% 4.92% 5.30%
-27.46% -57.58% 57.68% 14.91%
13.45% 12.19% -7.37% 35.90%
11.23% 8.32% 303.41% 75.99%
2.35%
6.64%
1.73% 1.58% -0.48% -0.01%
1.84% 1.96% 1.96% 2.78%
2.70% 2.16% 1.98% 5.23%
3.20% 3.68% 6.86% 8.26%
Main content
|18
1.48%
5.78%
-5.22%
7.25%
7.08%
6.33%
47.17
0.46%
-1.89%
0.84%
-17.97%
11.64%
13.48%
1.90%
6.60%
1.93%
2.95%
4.87%
16.43%
-4.59%
-14.39%
0.10%
-10.19%
1.90%
-1.89%
1.48%
42.17
-9.05%
-9.08%
-3.61%
6.45%
-37.02%
-6.56%
1.14%
6.23%
-0.45%
2.45%
3.17%
19.71%
4.48%
-2.76%
1.83%
-6.67%
2.49%
4.00%
3.58%
48.50
11.02%
2.98%
-0.20%
-38.78%
35.91%
69.12%
0.12%
5.68%
-0.08%
1.97%
2.98%
48.92%
-0.02%
6.31%
-12.01%
9.04%
2.54%
6.47%
51.13
13.30%
15.70%
0.97%
-17.69%
62.66%
27.50%
0.10%
5.17%
-0.32%
0.19%
0.99%
37.52%
3.90%
5.69%
-8.23%
8.04%
2.53%
7.34%
52.17
22.01%
26.29%
0.83%
97.41%
13.99%
14.82%
0.38%
5.06%
-2.42%
0.73%
1.16%
13.03%
4.24%
13.01%
-3.88%
15.53%
13.09%
7.25%
50.63
33.50%
45.68%
7.08%
-22.00%
67.14%
-17.89%
0.89%
5.00%
-0.81%
1.14%
2.41%
8.32%
-58.72%
-4.36%
-7.16%
-4.59%
-0.99%
-0.44%
41.83
5.16%
22.57%
-20.94%
58.61%
-33.80%
-37.02%
0.79%
4.97%
-1.82%
0.74%
2.06%
-26.25%
-0.95%
-12.54%
-12.71%
6.37%
-3.29%
7.83%
6.33%
0.24%
52.27
19.39%
15.96%
3.86%
-4.45%
5.72%
-16.29%
0.70%
4.95%
-1.18%
0.67%
1.81%
-11.98%
-10.59%
42.41%
Source:BSC, GSO, Fiinpro, Bloomberg
18
MACRO UPDATE: MONTHLY HEATMAP
|19
11/19 12/19 01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 01/21 02/21 03/2104/2105/2106/2107/2108/2109/2110/2111/2112/2101/2202/2203/2204/22 05/22 06/22 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/22 11/22
Retail Sales +
Customer Services
11.80% 11.80% 10.20% 8.30% 4.70% -4.30% -3.90% -0.80% -0.40% -0.02% 0.70% 1.27% 2.03% 2.62% 6.42% 5.49% 5.10% 10.02% 7.58% 4.89% 0.69% -4.69% -7.11% -8.60% -8.72% -3.76% 1.26% 1.66% 4.44% 6.54% 9.69%11.71% 15.99% 19.29% 21.00% 20.25% 20.50%
Retail Sales
12.70% 12.70% 10.70% 9.80% 7.70% 0.40% 1.20% 3.40% 3.60% 4.00% 4.80% 5.44% 6.22% 6.78% 8.65% 7.83% 6.84% 9.77% 7.83% 6.16% 3.19% -1.37% -3.38% -4.63% -4.35% 0.15% 4.35% 3.10% 5.76% 7.64% 9.83%11.27% 13.69% 15.43% 15.78% 14.99% 14.75%
Hospitalisty
9.60% 9.80% 6.80% 1.70% -9.60%-23.60%-25.80%-18.10%-16.60%-16.40%-15.00%-14.70%-13.72%-12.97% -4.13% -4.30% -2.97% 10.14% 4.60% -2.68%-11.77%-19.77%-22.14%-23.76%-26.00%-19.32%-11.95% -1.76% 1.18% 5.15% 15.75% 20.89% 37.48% 48.11% 54.74% 51.84% 56.47%
Travelling
Accumulation
%YoY
%YoY
%YoY
Accumulation
%YoY
166.13 240.08 294.87 291.59 306.52
%
%
%
%
%
Other services
8.10% 8.50% 10.70% 5.20% 1.50%-13.20%-11.80% -7.40% -5.90% -5.70% -5.60% -5.40% -4.76% -4.03% 7.31% 3.00% 3.90% 14.95%10.90% 4.38% -4.23%-13.65%-19.37%-22.56%-23.78%-16.83% -8.13% -5.87% -2.53% -0.61% 2.54% 5.56% 13.89% 24.23% 34.49% 36.46% 36.84%
Index of Industrial
Production
9.29% 9.11% -5.51% 6.16% 5.78% 1.80% 0.98% 2.80% 2.55% 2.16% 2.37% 2.74% 3.07% 3.35% 22.16% 7.35% 5.69% 9.96% 9.92% 9.27% 7.94% 5.56% 4.14% 3.31% 3.63% 4.76% 2.39% 5.38% 6.44% 7.51% 8.34% 8.73% 8.82% 9.44% 9.59% 9.01% 8.57%
Mining
0.85% 0.87%-12.87% -3.74% -5.22% -6.82% -8.07% -7.87% -7.81% -6.96% -7.40% -8.11% -7.13% -7.81% -6.22%-11.00% -8.23% -5.66% -6.99% -6.00% -6.30% -6.24% -6.37% -6.97% -6.01% -5.81% -4.64% -2.78% 1.00% 2.63% 4.13% 3.93% 3.64% 4.22% 5.04% 5.04% 6.47%
Manufacturing
Accumulation
%YoY
12.20% 12.10% 7.40% 1.10%-27.80%-45.20%-54.10%-53.20%-55.40%-54.40%-56.30%-57.66%-58.60%-59.50%-62.18%-62.06%-60.08%-49.17%-48.22%-51.76%-58.81%-61.81%-63.95%-63.77%-63.00%-59.90%-35.65%-10.95% 1.86%10.53% 34.70% 94.41%
10.61% 10.45% -4.84% 7.35% 7.25% 3.01% 2.24% 4.60% 4.22% 3.68% 3.79% 4.21% 4.70% 4.93% 27.15% 10.35% 8.04% 12.69%12.59%11.55% 9.92% 7.01% 5.47% 4.49% 4.78% 6.01% 2.82% 6.12% 7.04% 8.28% 9.24% 9.66% 9.73% 10.39% 10.36% 9.58% 8.92%
Electricity production
9.50% 8.73% -3.48% 8.38% 7.08% 2.91% 2.59% 2.04% 2.10% 1.99% 2.79% 3.21% 3.23% 3.07% 16.27% 4.25% 2.53% 6.55% 8.33% 8.60% 8.22% 6.62% 4.34% 4.07% 3.77% 4.93% 5.09% 6.49% 7.10% 6.58% 5.52% 6.03% 6.35% 6.80% 7.54% 7.84% 7.68%
Water supply
6.73% 6.80% 1.62% 4.93% 6.33% 3.56% 2.88% 2.77% 3.30% 2.90% 3.30% 4.13% 3.98% 4.25% 8.40% 4.84% 7.34% 7.54% 7.54% 6.82% 5.55% 4.42% 3.60% 3.38% 2.99% 2.72% 1.17% 2.46% 5.25% 1.12% 2.45% 4.08% 4.50% 5.79% 5.56% 6.59% 7.09%
PMI
51.00 50.80 50.60 49.00 41.90 32.70 42.70 51.10 47.60 45.70 52.20 51.80 49.90 51.70 51.30 51.60 53.60 54.70 53.10 44.10 45.10 40.20 40.20 52.10 52.20 52.50 53.70 54.30 51.70 51.70 54.70 54.00 51.20 52.70 52.50 50.60 47.40
Export
8.01% 8.50%-17.00% 8.21% 7.43% 2.05% -0.90% 0.21% 1.46% 2.37% 4.07% 4.78% 5.30% 6.50% 50.53% 23.25% 22.01%28.30%30.72%28.40%25.50%21.20%18.75%16.62%17.53%18.97% 1.61% 10.21%12.89%16.45% 16.33% 17.26% 16.06% 17.33% 17.28% 15.93% 13.51%
Import
6.66% 6.92%-12.51% 3.01% 3.56% -0.51% -4.81% -2.99% -3.18% -2.44% -0.78% 0.35% 1.50% 3.60% 41.00% 25.87% 26.29%30.80%36.36%36.10%35.28%33.76%30.54%28.20% 27.54% 26.48% 11.46% 15.92% 15.93% 15.70% 14.85% 15.46% 13.63% 13.61% 12.97% 12.18% 10.71%
FDI realised
6.79% 6.70% 3.23% -5.04% -6.55% -9.65% -8.22% -4.95% -4.08% -5.10% -3.23% -2.53% -2.38% -1.96% 4.14% 2.04% 6.49% 6.80% 6.72% 6.82% 3.75% 2.03% -3.49% -4.11% -4.20% -1.20% 6.80% 7.20% 7.80% 7.64% 7.83% 8.85%10.19% 10.54% 16.17% 15.18% 15.09%
318.66
70.98% 28.85% 32.17% 19.90% 17.53% 21.20% 11.37% -1.82% -5.09% -3.22% -6.59%-62.55%-12.88%41.37%13.70%16.45%12.37% 3.49% 11.64%22.28%15.76% 10.99% 15.19% -7.66%-14.01%-21.97%-19.79%-23.31%-13.94%-11.65%-15.01%-18.24% -7.15% -4.63%
%
FDI registered
-11.38%-11.83%
Credit growth
12.56% 13.65% 11.63% 12.64% 11.64% 10.33% 9.58% 9.72% 10.02% 10.14% 10.21% 10.30% 11.00% 12.17% 12.91% 12.71% 13.99%15.21%15.42%15.19%15.26%14.98%14.07%14.24%14.64%13.61%15.56%15.86%16.94%16.95% 17.01% 16.80% 17.00% 16.20% 16.94% 16.47%
Total means of
payment
13.39% 14.78% 13.38% 13.82% 13.48% 12.92% 12.58% 12.69% 13.22% 13.74% 13.90% 13.98% 14.16% 14.53% 13.42% 14.57% 14.82%15.63%14.92%13.75%13.70%12.74%12.13%11.69%11.17%10.66%12.67%11.58%12.26%11.29% 10.27% 9.97% 8.95% 7.86% 7.40%
Interest O/N
2.40% 2.92% 1.63% 2.10% 1.96% 2.15% 1.06% 0.22% 0.11% 0.14% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.88% 0.17% 0.27% 1.27% 1.14% 0.96% 0.77% 0.65% 0.65% 0.63% 0.81% 1.39% 2.76% 2.24% 1.89% 1.59% 0.42% 1.78% 3.41% 4.90% 5.86% 5.63%
Deposit interest rate
6.63% 6.63% 6.73% 6.63% 6.45% 6.40% 6.18% 6.13% 5.63% 5.83% 5.60% 5.13% 5.35% 5.03% 5.00% 5.18% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 4.95% 5.00% 5.03% 5.03% 5.50% 6.50% 6.50%
Exchange rate
-0.53% -0.01% 0.09% 0.18% 1.93% 0.63% -0.57% -0.45% -0.16% -0.13% -0.08% -0.10% -0.28% -0.32% -0.75% -0.96% -2.42% -1.59% -1.01% -0.81% -0.95% -1.65% -1.82% -1.84% -1.75% -1.18% -1.67% -0.86% -0.99% -0.37% 0.64% 1.19% 1.73% 2.93% 4.87% 9.17% 8.68%
CPI core YoY
2.18% 2.78% 3.25% 2.94% 2.95% 2.71% 2.54% 2.45% 2.31% 2.16% 1.97% 1.88% 1.61% 0.19% -0.97% 0.79% 0.73% 0.95% 1.13% 1.14% 0.99% 0.98% 0.74% 0.50% 0.58% 0.67% 0.66% 0.68% 1.09% 2.64% 1.61% 1.98% 2.63% 3.06% 3.82% 4.47% 4.81%
CPI YoY
3.52% 5.23% 6.43% 5.40% 4.87% 2.93% 2.40% 3.17% 3.39% 3.18% 2.98% 2.47% 1.48% 0.99% 0.49% 0.70% 1.16% 2.70% 2.90% 2.41% 2.64% 2.82% 2.06% 1.77% 2.10% 1.81% 1.94% 1.42% 2.41% 1.47% 2.86% 3.37% 3.14% 2.89% 3.94% 4.30% 4.37%
State budget
disbursement
5.16% 5.55% 3.65% 22.17% 17.04% 13.98% 16.83% 19.77% 28.26% 32.40% 35.27% 36.17% 35.84% 34.45% 24.53% 10.60% 13.03%16.31%14.22%10.21% 5.57% -0.43% -6.88% -8.26% -8.74% -8.60% 8.62% 10.36% 10.58% 9.12% 9.51% 10.12% 11.92% 16.87% 19.58% 20.05% 19.94%
State budget revenue
State budget spending
15.75%16.79%15.60%13.87%11.22% 7.65% 10.18% 3.49% 19.54% 12.94% 14.09% 13.35% 20.74% 20.52% 19.89% 20.31% 22.37% 19.60% 17.97%
-3.61% -4.80% -5.31% -5.89% -7.47% -8.79% -7.36% 9.91% 14.36%10.08% -1.32% 3.16% 1.29% 2.68% 3.96% 4.17% 5.41% 6.07% 7.10%
Source:BSC, GSO, Fiinpro, Bloomberg
|20
STOCK MARKET 2022-2023
VN-INDEX 1,154 – 1,709 PROJECTED BY TOP 35 STOCKS
No
Stock Weight
30/11/2022
Mean
Max
Min
P/E
P/B
No
Stock
Weight
30/11/2022
Mean
Max
1
VCB
9.17%
81,000
91,333
103,300
84,000
14.51
2.99
19
SSB
1.45%
30,150
30,300
2
VIC
6.10%
69,600
99,700
112,000
87,400
243.25
2.34
20
GVR
1.43%
14,200
16,300
16,300
3
VHM
5.64%
54,500
82,610
108,100
50,693
7.55
1.75
21
VJC
1.35%
103,000
125,100
4
GAS
4.94%
110,200
133,000
150,000
118,301
15.82
3.72
22
NVL
1.10%
23,350
5
BID
4.78%
41,100
36,643
45,300
21,910
12.84
2.16
23
VIB
1.02%
6
VNM
4.17%
82,800
88,830
108,000
77,000
21.92
5.56
24
HDB
7
MSN
3.41%
102,000
128,232
165,400
100,000
15.13
5.66
25
8
CTG
3.04%
27,250
31,561
40,600
21,082
8.41
1.24
9
VPB
2.74%
16,800
28,283
35,578
20,889
5.61
10
SAB
2.73%
180,000
219,760
240,000
204,000
11
HPG
2.56%
18,400
26,768
42,208
12
TCB
2.33%
25,900
55,642
13
BCM
2.03%
80,800
14
FPT
1.99%
15
MBB
16
|21
Min
P/E
P/B
15.60
2.43
16,300
13.37
1.13
30,600
30,600
902.14
3.19
82,234
103800
70400
15.94
1.22
20,250
32,592
38,409
26,500
5.09
1.40
0.98%
15,550
31,038
48,512
23,900
5.18
1.11
PLX
0.97%
29,500
46,200
66,300
28,400
40.00
1.61
26
STB
0.89%
20,000
29,715
45,200
11,215
9.09
1.02
1.19
27
BVH
0.86%
48,450
66,250
76,000
60,150
20.54
1.61
21.36
4.74
28
TPB
0.84%
22,000
33,900
38,800
29,000
5.75
1.14
15,700
6.91
1.09
29
SHB
0.69%
10,100
23,827
23,827
23,827
3.78
0.73
77,000
26,049
4.29
0.84
30
PNJ
0.67%
113,500
138,278
51,100
51,100
14.70
3.31
88,700
88,700
88,700
48.84
4.78
31
SSI
0.66%
19,250
27,746
29400
26092
8.55
1.30
74,600
105,028
128,500
95,400
15.53
4.11
32
REE
0.64%
74,000
87,477
93,209
79,000
9.53
1.78
1.96%
17,400
34,699
51,975
25,500
4.49
1.09
33
MSB
0.64%
13,000
15,500
15,500
15,500
5.62
1.00
ACB
1.84%
22,100
31,843
39,932
26,300
5.63
1.34
34
POW
0.64%
11,650
16,131
18,900
12,157
23.36
0.92
17
VRE
1.69%
30,550
36,124
40,100
26,474
33.61
2.13
35
EIB
0.63%
22,000
35,199
35,199
35,199
9.90
1.34
18
MWG
1.56%
44,100
81,208
109,799
43,500
12.59
2.77
Tổng
78.16%
1,048.42
1,421.41
1,709.07
1,154.77
45.90
2.16
Data updated to 30/11/2022
Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research
|22
MARKET: 2023 Forecast
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Global economy
slow down
Strong
Weak
Monetary policy
Strongly
tighten
Tighten
Slowly
disbursed
Quickly
disbursed
GDP
6.2%
6.7%
CPI
4.0%
3.3%
EPS growth
<-5%
>15%
VN-Index
< 970
> 1,300
Stimulus package
Main content
Bear market (-20%)
Cyclical & event Bear (-31%)
Structure Bear market (-57%)
Source: BSC Research
22
MARKET: (1) VALUATION 2023
23.00
|23
EPS Market Forecast 2023
P/E Ratio VNIndex
21.00
115.00
19.00
+4%
105.00
17.00
95.00
15.00
85.00
13.10
13.00
95
-2%
75.00
65.00
11.00
10.99
11
9.00
55.00
45.00
7.00
35.00
Price Earnings Ratio (P/E)
Scenario 2
-1 STDEV
-2 STDEV
Scenario 1
+1 STDEV
+2 STDEV
P/E Average 5 years
Notes: Data updated to 30/11/2022
EPS
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
99
93
MARKET: (1) Pattern VN-Index
|24
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
Period 1 (2008)
Period 3 (2018)
Period 5 (2022)
24
MARKET: (2) Business Result 2021 - 2022
Sectors
NPAT/Market
2021
EPS Market
Growth
NPAT Growth
Est 2022
2021
Est 2022
Est 2022
|25
5y Average
outstanding shares
growth
Technology
1.9%
2.2%
23.7%
22.7%
0.5%
12.2%
Industrials
5.8%
5.7%
30.4%
6.0%
0.3%
8.8%
Oil & Gas
0.3%
0.7%
-66.7%
178.7%
1.2%
1.8%
Consumer Services
-0.2%
3.3%
12.4%
319.3%
3.0%
15.8%
Health Care
0.6%
0.6%
19.0%
10.0%
0.1%
3.9%
Consumer Goods
10.9%
9.4%
17.6%
-6.7%
-0.6%
6.2%
Banks
47.2%
47.6%
30.3%
9.5%
4.5%
14.3%
Basic Materials
11.5%
8.6%
-26.3%
-18.6%
-1.6%
14.1%
Financials
15.5%
15.1%
-15.2%
5.8%
0.9%
15.0%
6.5%
6.9%
31.4%
15.9%
1.1%
1.7%
100.0%
100.0%
12.2%
Dilution Forecast
9.4%
5.4%
EPS growth basic
4.0%
Utilities
Total
Main content
Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research
25
