Estimation of net benefit from the proposed ban la hydropower project in nghe an province vietnam

Bạn đang xem bản rút gọn của tài liệu. Xem và tải ngay bản đầy đủ của tài liệu tại đây (869.5 KB, 157 trang )

ESTIMATION OF NET BENEFIT FROM THE PROPOSED BAN LA HYDROPOWER
PROJECT IN NGHE AN PROVINCE, VIET NAM

NGUYEN THI HOANG HOA

A thesis submitted
in fulfillment of therequirements forthe degreeofMaster
of EnvironmentalManagementinDevelopmentp l a n n i n g

FacultyofSocialSciences UNIVERSITI
MALAYSIASARAWAK2005

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Firstly, I would like to thank DANIDA funded WaterSPS Subcomponent 1.3 support to Capacity
Building at the Hanoi Water resources University (HWRU), Vietnam for the sponsorship of my
study.
I wish to express my appreciation and gratitude to those who had helped and supported me in the
project that leads to this dissertation.
I wish to thank my major supervisor, Assoc. Prof. Dr Gabriel Tonga Noweg, for his guidance
throughout my study at Unimas. From him and his guidance, I have gained much knowledge and
experiences, which I will pass on in my own future.
I alsowishto thank allmylecturers inUnimas fortheir assistanceandadvice. Iwouldalso like
tothankMr Robert Malongforhis help duringmyMasterCourse.
I
am
also
grateful
tomyco-supervisorDrNgoThi
Thanh
Van(HWRU)

forher
kindandvaluableassistanceduringmydata collection inVietnam.I am indebted to all the officers
intheDANIDAand HWRU Board, Power Engineering ConsultingCompanyNo 1 (PECC1),
districts officials ofNgheAn province,Instituteof Waterresourcesplanning (IWRP) and Aquatic
Product Research Institute, DoLuongweirmanager,Nam Dan sluicemanager,Department of
Agriculture and ruraldevelopmentofNgheAn province,NationalCentralMeteo-HydrologyForecast
(NCMHF),andlocal peoplein the ten districts ofNgheAn province. Thankyouforyourfriendlyand
warmassistance duringmyfieldtrip.
My special thanks go tomyhusbandand my children,wholovemeenough to letmegoandstudy
abroad. Thanksfortheir endlesssupportandencouragementduring thecoursework andcompletion of
thisdissertation.

2

TABLE OF CONTENT
Acknowledgment
Table of content
List of tables
List of figures
Abbreviation
Abstract
Abstrak

ii
iii
vi
viii
ix
xi

xii

C HAPTERI
I NTRODUCTION
1 .1
conomyofVietNam .
1
emandofenergyinVietNam
1 E
owerdevelopmentplan(2003-2020)
.2
0

T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ . .

0

T

0

T

0

T

0T

0

T..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . .

0

T

0T...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

1
1
1
2
3

0T

D
.3
0

T

P
1 GeneralfloodcontrolinVietNam 4
1 .5 Irrigation

5

1 .6

6

0

.4

0T

0

T

0

T

0

T

0T

0T...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.7

C
L HAPTERII
ITERATUREREVIEW
2 Introduction
9
2 .2 Approachinsustainabilitydevelopmentofreservoirformultipleuses
2 .3 Cost-benefitanalysis(CBA)
.1
2 Introduction 11
2 3.2 CostBenefitAnalysis(CBA)ofdams
3.1
2 Environmentalcost-benefit
15
2 3.2.2 Socialimpactmitigationcost
3.2.1
2 .3.2.3 loodcontrolcosts-benefits
0

T

0

T

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0

T

0T

0T

0

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0

T

0

T

0T

0T.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . . .

0

T

0

T

0

T

12

0T

0T.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

0T

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . .

F
2 .3.2.4 Irri
0

T

17
21

T

0T

0

T.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

C
M HAPTERIII
ATERIALSANDMETHODS
0

9
11

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

T

0

0

9
9

gationcostsandbenefits

T0

T

T

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ . . .

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . .

26
26

24

3 Introduction
26
3 .2 Studyarea

.1

0

T

0

T

0T

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

3 .2.1 Location
3 .2.2 opography
3
eology
T
3
limate
3 .2.3
ainfall
3
emperature
G
.2.4
0

0

T

T0............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ . .

T

0T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T

0

T

0

T

0T.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0

T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ .

0T

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T

0

0T......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

27
27
29
29

30
30
30

T

0T

C
.2.5
0

T

R
.2.6
0

0T

T

0T

T
3 .2. H umidity
7
3 .2.8
iverflow
0

0

T

T

0T..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T

31

0T

0

T

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

0T

R
3 .2. L anduse
9
3 .2.10 oilclassificationandsoilerosion
3
eople
S

.2.11
0

31

T

0T

0T

0T.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

31

0T

0

T

0T

0T

0T.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0

32
33

T

0T

P
3 .2.12 I rrigation
3 .2.13 loodoccurance
0

0

0

T

T

T0

T

0T

0T

0

F

T

T0.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

0T.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

34
34

0

3 .3 Conceptualframeworks
37
3 Privatecostsandbenefits
3.2
Publiccostsandbenefits
3
T

35

T0.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T

0T

0

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ . .

T

38

3.1
0

3 .4 Datacollection
3 Primarydatacollection 39
3 4.2 Secondarydatacollection
T

0

0T

T

0T

4.1

39

T0............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

T

0

T

0

T

0T

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

42
42

6.1
0

3 .7 Dataanalysis
T

C
R HAPTERIV
ESULTSANDDISCUSSION
4 .1 Int

4 .2 rivatecostsbenefits
0

43

T0.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

T

0T

44
44
roduction
44

0T.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0

0

T

0T

T

0

T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . . .

0T

0

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

P
4 .2.1
4
C
.2.2

44

T

0T

0

0T

T

0

onstructioncosts
perationandMaintenanceCosts

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . .

44
45

T

0T

O
4 .2.3 Resettlementcost
4 .2.4
lectricbenefit
0

T

0T

0T

0T

T0.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

0T.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

E
4 .3 Publiccostsandbenefits................................
4 .3.1 Floodcontrolcostsandbenefits ................................
4 Floodcontrolcosts
47
4 3.1.2 Floodcontrolbenefits
0

0

0T

0T.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . ..

45
45

T

T

46
46

T0................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

0

T

T

0

T

0

T

0.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T

48

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

3.1.1

4 .3.2 Irrigationcostsandbenefits
4 Irrigationbenefits
52
4 3.2.2 Irrigationcosts
0T

0

T

52

T0............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ .

0T

0T

58

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ .

3.2.1
4 .4
0T

0

nvironmentalandsocialcostsandbenefits

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ .

0T

E
4 .4.1

59

T

0T

0

E

0T

nvironmentalcost

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . .

59

T

4
4
4
0

4
4
4

0T

0

T

T

0

T

0T

0

T

4 Lossofpotentialtimberproduction .
59
4 4.1.2 Lossofland
4 4.1.3 Lossofexistingagriculturalproduction
4.1.4 Carbonsequestration
4.1.5 Lossofbiodiversity
4.1.6 Lossofexistingfishingincome
4.1.7 Lossofexistinghuntingincome
4.1.8 Lossofrevenueofexistingcollectionofforestproduct
4.1.9 DisruptionofexistingRivertransportation
4 .4. E nvironmentalbenefits
2
4 .4.2.1 Merchantabletimber ................................
4 .4.2. F isheriesinCaRiver
2

4 .4.2.3 otentialfortourism
4
ransportation
P
.4.2.4
0T

4.1.1

0

T

0

T

0

T

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ . .

60
61
61
62
62
62
62

62
63

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ . .

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . . .

0T.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

0T..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

0

T

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . . .

0T

0T

0

0

T

T

T

0T

0.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . . .

0T................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

63
64

0T

0

T

0

T

0T

64
65

0

T

0T

R
ostbenefitanalysisoftheproject
0

4 .5

0

T

0

0T

0T..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

67

T

C
4 Economicevaluationparameters
4 5.3 Sensitivityanalysis

T0.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. . . .

73

C ONCLUSIONSANDRECOMMENDATIONS
5 .1 Conclusion
5 .2
ecommendation

0

T

T0........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ..

0T

0

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

T

0T

0

0T.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. .

R

T

R EFERENCES

0

T

73
73
75

T0....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

75

A
S PPENDIXA
OILMAP,SOILEROSIONPOTENTAILMAPANDLANDUSEMAP

80
80

A
H PPENDIXB
YDROLOGICALDATA

84

84

0

T

0

T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ..

0T

0

T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

0T............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . ..

A
S PPENDIXC
URVEYQUESTIONNAIRES

0

T

0

T

0T........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

A PPENDIXD
C ONTINGENTVALUATIONFORENVIRONMENTAL
P ARAMETERS

0

T

0

T

0

T

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

A
C PPENDIXE

OST-BENEFITANALYSIS

0

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ..

98
98

105
105
105

T

0T

0T....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

0T.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... . .

A
P PPENDIXF
ICTURESOFTHESTUDYAREADURINGTHEFIELDTRIP

109
109

Benefit of flood control of Klang river basin flood mitigation project
………………………………………………………….……

Table 2.2

26

Key dimensions and key impacts of access to good irrigation water
………………………………………………………….…….

29

Table 3.1

Land use in Ban La catchment and reservoir area…………..

36

Table 3.2

Soil types of Ban La catchment area…………………………..

37

Table 3.3

Potential erosion in Ban La catchment area………………….

37

Table 3.4

Data need and data collection method…………………………

45

Table 4.1

Construction cost of Ban La dam………………………………

51

Table 4.2

Initial investment costs, annual operation and maintenance cost in
percentage and value ……………………………………

51

Table 4.3

Basic data of Ban La hydropower project ……………………

54

Table 4.4

Damage cost of historical flood events …………………………

57

Table 4.5

Flood damage Vs return period …………………………………

57

Table 4.6

Flood routing by Ban La reservoir ……………………………..

59

Table 4.7

Irrigated area and discharge of Do Luong system from Ca river
…………………………………………………………………

Table 4.8.

Irrigated area and discharge of pumping stations direct from Ca river
in the NNAIS ……………………………………

Table 4.9

60

Irrigated area and discharge of Nam Dan system from Ca
river………………………………………………………………….

Table 4.10

60

61

Irrigated area and discharge of pumping stations direct from Ca river
in the SNAIS………………………………………

61

Table 4.11

Irrigated failure in the future without Ban La project………

63

Table 4.12

Irrigated failure in thefutureafter completed Ban Laproject
………………………………………………………………

64

Table 4.13

Effective irrigated area…………………………………………..

64

Table 4.14

Annual benefit from irrigation in the area

66

LIST OF TABLES (CONTINUE)
Table 4.15

Forested area permanently flooded after creation ban La
reservoir………………………………………………………..

67

Table 4.16

Estimation of timber loss in the reservoir area

68

Table 4.17

Estimation of land loss by Ban La project (current
value)…………………………………………………………………

69

Table 4.18

Estimation of annual agricultural production loss …………

69

Table 4.19

Average standing volume (or stock) of the forest ……………

72

Table 4.20

Estimation of timber can be harvest in the reservoir area

72

Table 4.21

Merchantable of timber in the reservoir area ………………

72

Table 4.22

The water level along Ca river before and after construction Ban La
project ……………………………………………………

75

Table 4.23

Construction period criteria …………………………………….

77

Table 4.24

Cost disbursement for Ban La hydropower project ………….

78

Table 4.25

Basic data for economic assessment of Ban La hydropower project
(FSL= 200m; P = 320 MW; 5 years construction time and 10%
discount rate …………………………………….

Table 4.26

Result of cost benefit analysis of Ban La hydropower project
discount rate = 10% …………………………………………..

Table 4.27

79
80

Results of sensitivity analysis with changes in discount rate, output
and lifespan of the project

82

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 4.1

Location of the study area ……………………………………
Total cost and total benefits …………………………………
Hydraulic network scheme ……………………………………

Page
32
42
62

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
%

Per cent

ADB

Asian Development Bank

APRI

Aquatic Product Research Institute

B/C

Benefit/ cost

BVND

Billion Vietnamese Dong

CBA

Cost Benefit Analysis

CVM

Contingent Valuation Method

DARD

Department of Agriculture and Rural Development

EIA

Environmental Impact Assessment

FIPI

Forest Inventory and Planning Institute

FSL

Full Supply Level

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GWh

Gigawatt hour

ha

Hectare

HPM

Hedonic Price Method

IAP

Institute of Agricultural Planning

IE

Institute of Energy

IG

Institute of Geography

IRR

Internal Rate of Return

IWRP

Institute of Water Resources Planning

kg

Kilogram

km
km2

Kilometer

kW

Kilowatt

kWh

Kilowatt hour

l/s

Liter per second

mm

Millimeter

m2

Square meter

m3
m3/s

Cubic meter

Square Kilometer

P

P

P

Cubic meter per second

PP

MARD
Mm
P

3

Ministry of Agriculture and rural Development
Million cubic meter

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS (CONTINUE)
MVND

Million Vietnamese Dong

No

Number

NNAIS

North Nghe An Irrigation System

NB

National Bank

NPV

Net Present Value

O&M

Operation and maintenance

P

Probability

PECC1

Power Engineering Consulting Company 1

Q

Discharge

SNAIS

South Nghe An Irrigation System

TCM

Travel Cost Method

TWL

Tail Water Level

USC

US Cent

USD

US Dollar

VND

Vietnamese Dong

WB

World Bank

WE

Wood Equivalent

WTA

Willing To Accept

WTP

Willing To Pay

Yr

Year

ABSTRACT
The construction and operation of Ban Lahydropowerproject willleadto avarietyof changes in the

localandwiderenvironment.Many of the impacts will be beneficial, both at the regionalandnational
level. Project implementation will havesomesocioeconomicimpacts on communities intwodistricts
upstream and nine districtsdownstreamfrom the dam.Completionof
willsupplywater

totwoirrigationsystems:NorthNgheAn

Irrigation

Ban

System

La project

and

SouthNghe

An,which cornersome62,220haof irrigated area inNgheAn province.Theconstruction
project

will

also

reduce

floodpeakin

the

downstream

area

and

of the

hencereducing

flooddamagesforriverine residents in the downstream area. This study evaluateseconomicand
environmental impacts of Ban La project on local communities: upstream of the Ban La dam;
flooded area and irrigation areas downstreamfromtheproposeddam. Private costs and benefits as
well aspubliccosts and benefit areestimated for theproject in order to arrive at the total net
socialbenefits.Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) isusedtoestimatethe costs and benefits
associated with intangible item ornon-market goods.The studyfoundthat thenetpresentvalueof
social benefitsat10% discount rate and 30 years project operationperiodis positive (BVND
533.8).Benefit-Costratio is 3.18andInternalRate of Return (IRR) is 11%. Sensitivityanalysisis also
performed to detectresponsivenessof theinvestmentto changes in discount rate, changes inoutputof
the project as well as different scenarios of projectlifespan.

Abstrak
Pembinaan

empangan

hidroBanLadijangkaakanmembawaberbagaikesan,terutamanyafaedah

terus dan jugasampingankepada penduduk setempat khasnya.Kesansosioekonomi akan dirasai
diduabuahdaerah(TuongDuongdanKySon) dibahagianh u l u empangan danjuga9

Abstrak
Pembinaan empangan hidroBanLadijangkaakanmembawaberbagaikesan,terutamanyafaedah
terus dan jugasampingankepada penduduk setempat khasnya.Kesansosioekonomi akan dirasai
diduabuahdaerah(TuongDuongdanKySon) dibahagian huluempangan danjuga9 daerah
dikawasanhilirempangan. Antarafaedahyangakan dinikmatiialahdalam bentuk kemudahan sistem
pengairan (North NgheAnIrrigationdanSouth NgheAnIrrigation)yangmeliputi 62,220 hektar
tanah pertanian. Kajian yang dijalankan iniadalahbertujuan untuk menilai
kesanpembinaanempangan BanLadarisegik e s a n s o s i o e k o n o m i n y a .
Analisispelaburan dijadikan asas penilaian inidimana segala elemenfaedah dan kos diambil kira.
Faedah dan kos barangan sumberaslidan alam sekitar dinilai dengan
kaedahpenilaiankontinjen.H a s i l kajianm e n d a p a t i p r oj e k mempunyaini l a i f a e d a h sosialk i n
i berjumlahB V N D
533.8.Nisbahfaedah-kos pelaburan ini adalah 3.18dankadar pulangan dalam adalah
11%.Inibermaksud

projek

tersebut

sumbanganpositifkepadasosioekonomi

adalah
penduduk

baik

dan

berupayamemberi
tempatan.

CHAPTER
IINTRODUCTIO
N
1.1. Economyof VietNam
Viet Nam’s moderneconomyevolves from the burden ofmilitaryaction andpolitical upheavals.After
partition in 1954, NorthVietNamandSouth VietNameachdevelopedtheirown economicstructure
separately,reflectingdifferenteconomic

systemswith

differentresourcesand

different

tradingpatterns.The Northoperated undera highlycentralizedandplannedeconomy,

whereasthe

South maintained a free-market economy.With the reunification of VietNamin 1976, North Viet
Nam’s centrallyplannedandcontrolled economywasintroducedandadopted in thesouthofVietNam.

Since 1986, the “innovative”and“opened-door” policypracticedby theVietnameseGovernmenthas
attracted foreign investors to come to do businesses andpromoteboth the stateandprivateeconomic
elements,

which

spurtheeconomic

orientedeconomysince
Product(GDP)growthrate

then.

developmentof

Having

a

VietNam.Ithas

stable

political

ofVietNamfrom1991

changed

regime,
to

tothemarket-

theGrossDomestic
2002hasreached

anaveragefigureof7.5%.GDPpercapitaof Viet NamwasUSD 490 in 2003. TheGDPpercapitaandits
populationgrowthfrom 1995 to2003isshownin theTable1.1

1

Table 1.1 GDP growths, GDP per capita and Population of Viet Nam from 1995 to 2003.
Year
1995
Real
GDP 9.5
growth rate
(%)
GDP
287
percapita
(USD/head)
Population
(Millions)

71.96

1996
9.3

1997

8.2

1998
5.8

1999
4.8

2000
6.8

2001
6.8

2002
7.0

2003
7.5

323

326

342

372

398

422

458

490

73.16

74.56

75.56

76.60

77.64

78.69

79.70

80.80

(Sources: General Statistics Office of Viet Nam (2004)

1.2. Demandof energyinViet Nam
Theeconomic growthin Viet Nam is strongly indicated bythe increasein thedemand for
energy.Electricity

generation

plants

in

Viet

Nam

atpresentarefrompetroleum,

naturalgas,hydropower,coal and diesel.However,the dependence on oilforelectricitygenerationhas
declined

significantly

in

recentyear.TheViet

Nam

government’s

policy

is

to

encouragetheexploitation of renewable energyresources, suchashydropower.

Thepeakelectricity demandrecordedin2002was8,700MW, whilethetotalcapacity of all kinds
ofpowerplantconnectedtothenetwork

was8,749MW.The

electricitygenerationcomprises

thefollowing(Table1.2).
Table 1.2: Power generation capacities by energy sources
E nergygeneration
Hydropower plant
Thermal power plant (coal)
Thermal power plant (oil)
Gas turbines (Gas)
Diesel
Total
0

B

Source: Tran (2004)

P owercapacity
4115 MW
1245 MW
573 MW
2322 MW
494 MW
8749 MW

1B

%
47.03 %
14.23 %
6.55 %
26.54 %
5.65 %
100%

of

Power consumption
Energy demand inViet Namhasgrownat afasterrate than thegrowthofGrossDomestic Product
(GDP).Consumptionof energy increasedfrom11,200 GWh in 1995 to 30,235 GWh in
2003,whichis equivalent to thegrowthrate of 15.3% perannum.Thenumberof customers
isaround4million.

Industryconsumed41.8%ofthewhole

powersales,residential

customersconsumed47.8%, commercials and servicesused4.6% and otherusersconsumed 6% of
thepowersupply.

Economicgrowthand

industrialization

haspushedVietNam’sdemandforelectricityup,at

an

averageannualrate of 14-15% in thepastfewyears.This demand is projected to grow yearly at 1315% till 2010. According to thegovernmentestimates,around70-80billionkilowattsofpowerwill
beneededby 2010. Thereafter, thedemandis expected to reachbetween160 and 200 billion
kilowatts in 2020(Central GovernmentAdministration Power Report,2002a).

1.3

Powerdevelopmentplan(2003-2020)

The development of energy resource in Viet Nam will have to be in tandem with the acceleration
of the nation’s industrial growth, particularly the growth emphasis on the development of energyintensive and energy based industries.

In recent years, sustainable development has become the central concept of formulating strategies
for future economic progress. While raising the real per capital income remains the basic
development goal, there is now increasing emphasis on balancing this goal with the “quality of
life” or “well-being”. This makes the development of an efficient and economic energy system
even more challenging because of the need to reconcile the energy and the environmental policy
objectives.

Based on the above forecasted demand, the development programme of power generation for the
period 2003-2020, the plan for expansion of power supply are:
(1) Tomeetthe country’s rising energyneed.
(2) To develop balanceddevelopmentof theresources (hydro,coal and gas firedthermal)in
order

to

explore

effectivelythe

primaryenergy

sources

and

at

thesametimelimittheadverseimpact on theenvironmentandecology,and
(3) Toreduce theuseoffossilfuel. This isoneof the causes of serious environmental
problem today(Central Government AdministrationPower Report, 2002b).

Hydropowerhas

beenprovento

be

safe,

relativelyclean,efficient

and

arenewable

sourceofenergycomparedto oil fired generation and naturalgas-fired generation. Unlike
nuclearandfossilfuels, hydroelectric is by nature less damaging to theenvironmentas the
generationprocessdoesnotresult

in

continuouswasteproduction

oremissionof

air

pollutant.Hydropoweris alsooneof the cheapestpowerand its reservoir have high recreational
value.

Theyareextensivelyused

for

fishing,watersupply,irrigation,

flood

control

andsoil

erosioncontrol.

1.4. Generalfloodcontrolin VietNam
Water

relateddisasters,including

intheworld,

floods

and

drought,

bothforindividualhouseholdsand

intheworldareaffectedthrough

homelessness,injury,

haveseriouseconomic

nationaleconomies.Moreand
disease,lossof

property

implication
morepeople
and

death.

Thevastmajority of the millions of Asians affected annually by flood are thepoor.Frequent
flooding gives them no opportunity to breakoutof the cycle of poverty.Inaddition, floods often
cause marginally better-off people to descend into poverty as a result of floodrelatedlosses
(Linder, 2002).

Flooding is a major watermanagement problem, whicheach year causes a great loss of human life,
property damages and loss of agricultureandotheroutputin the floodproneareas. Climate
changeandupstreamwatershed

changesboth

within

Viet

Namandotherupstream

countrieshavecreated associatedproblems suchas flash floods with great damage(Fox,2001).

Viet

Nam

isoneof

themostdisasterpronecountries

in

theworldbecauseofitgeographicalandtopographicalfeatures.The country suffers from almost all
types of disaster,amongwhichwater disasters induced by typhoons and floodsare themostfrequent
andsevere. Everyyear disasters claim hundreds of human lives and cause millions of dollar
ofeconomic lossin the country(Nguyenand Le,2002).Floodcontrol isnecessarytoincrease food
productionandalsoforeconomicdevelopment.Governmentof

Viet

Nam

has

alwaysputdisastermanagement,particularly flood andstormcontrol as top priority initagenda.

1.5. Irrigation
Viet Nam isoneof the fewfastgrowingeconomies in theworldsince the 1990s.ItsGDP grew
atabout7 per cent perannumduring this period. Rapideconomic growthcontributed substantially to
the reduction of poverty in the country during 1990s. Theproportionof poor in the total population
declinedfrom58

to

29percentbetween

1993and2002.However,acceleratedgrowthhas

alsobroughtconsiderable inequalities between the rural and urbanareas,and between rich andpoor
households.The poverty rate drastically declinedfrom25 to 6.6percentin urban areaswhile from66

to

37percentin

rural

areas

between1993and2002.

Poverty

inVietNam

is

largely

a

ruralproblem;nearly 85 per cent of the country’spoorlive in rural areaswhose primarysource of
livelihood is agriculture. As poverty is widespread intherural areas, a top prioritywaslaiddownin
the comprehensive poverty reduction andgrowthstrategy to accelerateagriculture growthand rural
income,

therebyimprovethe

living

condition

of

ruralpopulation.Irrigation

lifelineforagriculturaldevelopmentespeciallyforVietNamwhereabout80percentofcropland

is

a

is planted with rice, which is predominantly an irrigated crop. One of the best outcomes for
improvement to the existing irrigation system will lead to a better availability of irrigation water,
thereby empowering rice farmers through increased in rice yields and in farm incomes (Janaiah,
2004).

1.6

Problemstatement

Dam’s

multipleusesare

both

their

greatest

strength

and

theirbiggest

weakness.Itis

aweaknessbecause of the conflictbetweenthemanydifferent stakeholders on how tousea
reservoirsystem.Aclassicconflict over wateruseisthe one between thosewhowanttousethe water
inthereservoir

strictlyfor

hydropowergenerationandthosewhowantto

divertsomeof

it

tosupplyindustrialandagricultural needs as well aswhowantto reduce thefloodinthedownstream.

There aremanyenvironmental parameters that are affected byhydropowerdevelopment project.
Environmental impacts can be given positive ornegativevalues thatneedto be taken into account
tocomeup with the estimate of net costs or benefits of the project. The applicationofcostbenefitanalysisto environmental impactassessmentis faced with thefollowingproblems: the
uncertainly in the valuation of non-market goodssuchaswildlife andlandscape. Howshould this be
done, and howmuchshould the society rely on the estimates that are generated? Areweacting
immorally by placingmoneyvalues on such intangibleitems?Howcanthe society accurately predict
the effects of changes ineconomicactivity on complex ecosystem? How can anincreasein an

environmentalgoodbevalued?Canweestimateiteitheronthe people’smaximumwillingness to pay is
to have this increase, or theirminimumwillingness to accept compensation toforgothisitem.Ifa
reduction in thesamegoodis being valuedwecanaskeither theirmaximumwillingness to pay to
prevent such a reduction or theirminimumwillingness to acceptcompensationto tolerate it.
Thisallowsa monetary value to be placed on an environmental gain orloss,which is anestimateof
underlying utility gain orloss(Hanley,2001).

Estimation of net benefit from the proposed ban la hydropower project in nghe an province vietnam

Tài liệu liên quan

Tài liệu bạn tìm kiếm đã sẵn sàng tải về