RESEARCH IMPACTS OF MAJOR VARIABLES ON THE EXPORTS IN VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD OF 2013 – 2023

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL

BIG ASSIGNMENT

RESEARCH IMPACTS OF MAJOR VARIABLES ON THE EXPORTS IN
VIETNAM IN THE PERIOD OF 2013 – 2023

TRAN THI LINH GIANG
Hanoi – Year 2023
1


VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI
INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL

BIG ASSIGNMENT
Research impacts of major variables on the exports in VN in the period
of 2013-2023

LECTURERS: TS Chu Dinh Toi, TS Than Van Thai
STUDENT: Tran Thi Linh Giang
STUDENT ID: 20070446
MAJORS: AC2020
SUBJECT: Scientific research methodology
CLASS: MNS105206

Hanoi – Year 2023
2

Table of Contents
I.

INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................5
1.

Background of the study..............................................................................................5

2.

Statement of the problem.............................................................................................5

3.

Purpose and significance of the study.........................................................................5

4.

Research questions and objectives..............................................................................5

II. LITERATURE REVIEW..................................................................................................5
1.

Overview........................................................................................................................5

2.

Previous studies and findings related to the topic......................................................6
2.1. Domestic research.................................................................................................6
2.2. Foreign studies...........................................................................................................6

3. Gaps in the literature and the need for the proposed study.........................................7
III. METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................................7
1.

Theoretical basis............................................................................................................7
1.1. CPI ( Consumer price index )..............................................................................7
1.1.1. CPI concept:............................................................................................................7
1.1.2. “Basket of goods” to calculate Vietnam CPI..........................................................7
1.1.3. Formula for calculating CPI....................................................................................8
1.1.4. Application of CPI in practice................................................................................8
1.2. M2 (Total Means of Payment).............................................................................8
1.3. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment).........................................................................9
1.4. EVFTA (Vietnam Trade Agreement – EU ).......................................................9
1.4.1. What is an FTA?.....................................................................................................9
1.4.2. Main content of Vietnam free trade agreement- EU (EVFTA)..............................9

2.

Impacts of major variables on Viet Nam Exports.....................................................9
2.1. Impact of CPI on Exports......................................................................................9
2.2. Impact of M2 on exports......................................................................................10
2.3. Impact of disbursed FDI on exports....................................................................10
2.4. Impact of EVFTA on exports...............................................................................11

3.

Research model and research results........................................................................13
3.1. Regression model................................................................................................13
3.2. Estimating the regression model........................................................................13

3.3. Accreditation.......................................................................................................13
3.3.1. Perform t test with βi............................................................................................13
3.3.2. The fit of the model is checked by the F...............................................................15
3.4. Conclusion after testing the model defects:......................................................21
3.5. Analyze the relationship between dependent variables and economic
variables...........................................................................................................................21
3.6. Conclusions drawn from the model...................................................................22

IV.

V.

BUGET AND RESEARCH PROBLEM PROPOSAL...............................................22

1.

Buget.............................................................................................................................22

2.

Research problem proposal.......................................................................................22
REFERENCE..................................................................................................................23
3


No.

Symbol

Description

1

FDIDIS

2

CPI

Consumer Price Index

3

M2

Total means of payment

4

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

5

EVFTA

6

WTO

World Trade Organization

7

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

Foreign Dierect Investment Disbursement

European Vietnam Free Trade Agrement

4


I.
INTRODUCTION
1. Background of the study
In the current era of global economic integration, in order to survive and develop, countries
cannot withdraw but need to participate in exchanges with many countries in the world in
economic activities. foreign countries and Vietnam is no exception. Taking part in the
country's historical milestones, Vietnam's import and export activities in general and exports,
in particular, have undergone drastic changes, becoming an important driving force for the
growth of the economy.
The period 2006 to now is the period of the extensive economic integration of Vietnam with
the important event that Vietnam became the 150th member of the WTO, the state has given
orientations to exploit the relative advantages of Vietnam. Nam combines integration
opportunities to make the most of export markets and develop new markets. Vietnamese
goods have now penetrated into many markets with high requirements for goods quality and

food safety such as the EU, Japan, the US, Australia... By 2020, there are 31 export markets
with a turnover of over 1 billion USD, of which, 5 markets have a turnover of over 10 billion
USD, and 8 markets are over 5 billion USD. Exports make an important contribution to
economic development, improving the balance of payments, stabilizing the macro-economy,
stabilizing exchange rates, controlling inflation, creating spillover effects, promoting
production, creating jobs, and creating jobs. income for millions of employees.
2. Statement of the problem
In the development of the export market economy and the State's policies, macro variables
have meaning and play an important role in many aspects, especially the close relationship
with growth. of the export market in Vietnam. If the macro variables are stable, then it will
create favorable conditions to maintain order and promote investment, production, and export.
With the aim of providing an overview of the impact of macro variables on Vietnam's export
activities, based on theoretical grounds and practical data to determine the level of influence
of these factors. Factors as well as recommendations for measures to increase exports, I chose
the topic: "Study on the impact of macro variables on the export situation in Vietnam in the
period of 2013 - 2023" as the topic study.
3. Purpose and significance of the study
Research the impact of macro variables on the export situation in Vietnam in 2013 - 2023,
thereby assessing the impact of variables and proposing solutions for the state and businesses.
4. Research questions and objectives
- Analyze the role of macro variables in affecting the export situation in Vietnam in the period
of 2013 - 2023.
- Assess the impact of macro variables on the export situation in Vietnam in the period of
2013 - 2023.
- Proposing possible solutions to increase the export situation in Vietnam in the future.
The question for the topic is: Are macroeconomic factors with the export market really
correlated?
II.
LITERATURE REVIEW
1. Overview

Studying the impact of macro factors on our country's exports is of urgent significance.
Through the analysis, the following contents will be clarified: firstly, conducting an overview
of empirical studies analyzing the macro variables affecting exports in the period 2013-2021,
thereby determining the research drum. The second is to clarify the research method, which is
shown through the content of building research questions: approaches and analytical
frameworks, ways of collecting, processing and synthesizing information, methods of
5


information analysis, and methods of information analysis. information and research criteria
system. The study uses both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. The qualitative
analysis focuses on clarifying the reality of macro variables affecting Vietnam's exports in the
period 2013-2021. Quantitative analysis uses a multivariate regression model to assess the
impact of factors on exports. The third is to clarify the current situation of factors affecting
Vietnam's exports. The multivariable regression model also quantifies the impact of the
following factors on exports: disbursed foreign direct investment (FDIDIS) and total means of
payment (money supply M2), consumer price index (CPI), and the signing of the EVFTA
Agreement.
2. Previous studies and findings related to the topic
2.1. Domestic research
[1] “Hiệp định thương mại tự do Việt Nam - EU: tác động đối với thương mại hàng hoá giữa
hai bên và hàm ý cho Việt Nam” – Vu Thanh Huong, 2015. The thesis has analyzed the
changes in goods trade between Vietnam and the EU in terms of turnover, proportion, growth
rate, structure by industry group, and market in the period 2001-2015, thereby laying the
foundation platform to assess the impact of the EVFTA.
[2] “Mối quan hệ giữa FDI, xuất khẩu và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam, Trung Quốc và
Ấn Độ giai đoạn 1986 – 2017” -Phan Kim Phuong, 2019. The study applies the method of
autoregressive distributional delay (ARDL Bounds) model to find out the correlation between
the factors of foreign direct investment, export, and economic growth. In addition, the
Granger causality test method is used in the study to determine the direction of the impact

between the three variables mentioned above, and at the same time, the study uses time series
data of the three FDI variables exports, economic growth in Vietnam, China, and India from
1096 to 2017.
[3] “Nghiên cứu tác động của lãi suất, lạm phát và tỷ giá hối đoái đến hoạt động xuất khẩu
gạo của Việt Nam” -Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong, 2019. The study shows that all three factors
affect rice export turnover in the short and long term in different directions. From there, the
author gives policy implications to promote rice export activities, as well as improve the
initiative of rice exporting enterprises to seize opportunities and overcome challenges in the
coming period.
[4] “Phân tích các yếu tố tác động đến xuất khẩu nông sản của Việt Nam sang thị trường
EU” - Do Thi Hoa Nha, Nguyen Thi Thu Ha, 2019. The paper uses an extended gravity
model and array data to analyze the factors affecting the export of agricultural products of
Vietnam, a developing country, to the EU, a highly developed market, in the period of 2005 2016. The model estimation results show that the factors: GDP per capita, population,
institutional quality and WTO accession have a positive impact, while geographical distance
and technology distance have the same effect. has a negative impact on agricultural exports.
[5] “Xuất khẩu Việt Nam sau khi tham gia các hiệp định thương mại tự do thế hệ mới - Một
số kiến nghị chính sách” – Nguyen Thi Tam, 2020. The study has provided the theoretical
basis and international experience on free trade agreements; The reality of Vietnam's exports
after joining new-generation free trade agreements; Some policy recommendations to increase
Vietnam's exports when participating in new-generation free trade agreements.
2.2. Foreign studies
[6] Rohit Singh Tomah et al (2014), “Selected Macro Economic Variables and its Impact on
Chinese and Indian Exports”, The study explores the impact of India and China’s
macroeconomic variables on exports from India and China respectively. This study is divided
into three levels - At the first level, the macroeconomic variables that have an impact on
exports from any selected country The variables chosen are Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
FDI inflows, Exchange Rates, Real Income Per Capita, and Inflation. In the second level, an
econometric model has been designed. designed to predict the impact of selected
6

macroeconomic variables of the Indian economy on Chinese exports and the impact of
selected macroeconomic variables of the Chinese economy on At the third level, policies are
proposed on a model basis to improve exports from India Principal component regression
analysis is used to prepare the economic model from selected independent macroeconomic
seas.
[7] Reis J, Forte R (2016), “The impact of industry characteristics on firms’ export intensity”,
International Area Studies Review. Based on a sample of Portuguese firms for the period
2008-2010 and using panel estimates, the paper shows that firm export intensity is positively
affected by productivity. (at the industrial and corporate level), endorses the idea that
companies and governments need to direct their policies towards increasing productivity in
order to improve their competitiveness in foreign markets.
[8] Farhana Rahman (2017), "Impact of Selected Macro-Economic Variables on the Export
Performance of Bangladesh.” This paper investigates the long- and short-term dynamics
between Bangladesh's export performance and the variables. Macroeconomics are selected
using different econometric tools Variables to be considered are Interest Rate, Inflation Rate,
Amount of Money (M2), Exchange Rate, and Industry Quantum Index The monthly data was
analyzed for the period from July 2011 to June 2016.
[9] Morgan (2018), "The effect of export promotion on firm-level performance", American
Economic Journal: Economic Policy. The study answers two questions: Does export
promotion improve firm performance and do the benefits outweigh the costs? And it shows
that export promotion increases sales, added value, employment, and added value per labor.
For small businesses, the sum of export promotion expenditures, subsidies, and tax
adjustments, the value added is nearly three times higher than the direct costs of export
promotion.
[10] Samson Kitonyi et al (2020), “The effect of the Macro-environment factors on the
relationships between firm resources and export performance of small and medium scale
manufacturing enterprises in Nairobi city county. Kenya". This paper evaluates the influence
of macro-environmental factors on the relationship between enterprise resources and export
performance of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in Nairobi County, Kenya.

3. Gaps in the literature and the need for the proposed study
In fact, there have been many papers studying the factors affecting the export of Vietnamese
products, but there are few or no studies on how macro variables affect the situation.
Vietnam's exports, although these macro variables play an important role in the import and
export industry.
The limitations of the study are: due to the limited research time, the study has not analyzed
the export trends in depth and has not analyzed the far-reaching impacts of each factor in each
separate aspect. The study mainly uses qualitative methods and collects data, there is no
specific survey.
III.
METHODOLOGY
1. Theoretical basis
1.1.
CPI ( Consumer price index )
1.1.1. CPI concept:
Consumer Price Index (or CPI for short) is an index of the average consumption price for a
person's basket of goods or services. The index represents the relative change in the prices of
goods and services over time in a percentage.
The CPI represents only a relative change because it is based on only one basket of goods
representing all consumer goods.
It is also the most commonly used indicator to measure price levels and changes in price
levels (i.e. inflation or deflation).
1.1.2. “Basket of goods” to calculate Vietnam CPI
7


In Vietnam, the CPI was first calculated and announced by the General Statistics Office in
1998 (previously the retail price index of goods and services) with the reference base selected
as 1995. After 2 times of addition and revision, the General Statistics Office has agreed to
introduce product groups to calculate CPI in Vietnam and use 2009 as the base of comparison.

1.1.3. Formula for calculating CPI
CPI is formed from the spending information of thousands of households nationwide.
Information was collected through interviews and spending diaries of selected subjects for
research.
Determine the price: Statistics the price of each item in the cart at each point in time.
Select the base period as a basis for comparison and then calculate the CPI using the
following formula:
n
Pti
)
I = ∑ ❑Wi(
Poi
i=1
Trong đó
I: CPI for the reporting period
Wi: 2009 fixed weights of commodity group i
P0i: Price of item i at base period
Pti: Price of item i at the reporting period
1.1.4. Application of CPI in practice
The CPI can measure inflation. If the CPI rises, many will assume that the rate of inflation
is increasing. In addition, CPI is also used by traders to predict future prices. Or employers
use to calculate wages. Or maybe the Government to determine the increase for social
protection funds.
The CPI will be used to measure the inflation rate of a country over a certain period of time.
The fluctuating CPI will help you determine whether the rate of inflation is rising or falling.
1.2.

M2 (Total Means of Payment)

Total means of payment is a measure of the money supply in the economy. The number is
measured through the measurements M0, M1, M2… Depending on the level of development
8


of the financial market, the Central Bank of a country chooses how to measure M. In practice,
the choice of a measure of money will depend on how best to predict economic variables over
which money has a great influence such as the inflation rate, the business cycle, and the
inflation rate. business…In Vietnam, the total means of payment usually uses the M2
measurement, including: banknotes, demand deposits and term deposits at credit institutions,
foreign bank branches of organizations. , individuals who are residents of Vietnam in the nonfinancial institutional sector, the residential institutional sector, the not-for-profit institutional
sector serving households; valuable papers in Vietnam dong and foreign currencies issued by
credit institutions and foreign bank branches to organizations and individuals who are
residents of Vietnam.
Regulators think that controlling M2 is really important, as savings and time deposits at
banks are potential transaction amounts. Moreover, between them and M1 there is often a
mutual transformation.
1.3.

FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)

FDI is a form of long-term investment by an individual or organization from one country to
another by setting up factories and business establishments. The aim is to achieve long-term
interests and take control of this property
In fact, for the socio-economic development of Vietnam, FDI has a fairly clear role and has
been confirmed in many fields. According to recent statistics, the whole country has about
15,000 valid FDI projects with a total registered capital of 218.8 billion USD, with
implemented capital reaching 106 billion USD.
1.4.
EVFTA (Vietnam Trade Agreement – EU )

1.4.1. What is an FTA?
An FTA is a trade agreement between two or more countries. Accordingly, the countries
participating in the agreement will carry out a roadmap to reduce and eliminate tariff and nontariff barriers, aiming to establish a free trade area. This allows countries to take advantage of
their comparative advantages, specializing and dividing labor to maximize the benefits of
increased trade.
This is essentially a form of international association, toward forming a unified market for
goods and services. However, the member countries In other words, the members of the FTA
can maintain their own tariffs and other trade barriers to the world outside the agreement.
1.4.2. Main content of Vietnam free trade agreement- EU (EVFTA)
EU - a large market with 28 member countries is one of the most important trading partners
of Vietnam. Up to now, Vietnam has not had an FTA with countries in this region. In fact, the
EU has also started negotiating an FTA with ASEAN since 2007. However, for various
reasons, negotiations were stopped in 2009. This could also be a reason why the EU started
seeking bilateral FTAs with individual countries in ASEAN. The EU has completed FTA
negotiations with Singapore, basically finished FTA negotiations with Vietnam, and is
negotiating with Thailand and Malaysia. Currently, the two sides are negotiating a VietnamEU Free Trade Agreement (VN-EU FTA), starting from June 2012.
2. Impacts of major variables on Viet Nam Exports
2.1.

Impact of CPI on Exports
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In fact, CPI does not have a direct impact on a country's exports but is reflected in that
country's inflation rate. The higher inflation, the higher the price of goods, making it difficult
for businesses to compete in the international arena.
In terms of inflation, this factor affects the domestic selling price, thereby putting pressure on
the supply of goods for export, so it also has a certain influence on the export price. Inflation
also entails an adjustment in the exchange rate that affects export prices in the opposite
direction. Ignoring other factors, inflation affects exports mainly through price elasticity for

different commodities. Therefore, its impact on each commodity, and country, has almost no
overlap. For the same reason as mentioned above, studies on the impact of inflation on
exports in Vietnam are still limited. It can be said that this is a variable that has a rather
complicated effect on export activities in Vietnam, which is still very little exploited.
The relationship between inflation and exports remains largely unexplored in empirical
studies. However, as mentioned above, a decrease in exports can cause the domestic currency
to depreciate against foreign currencies leading to increased inflation risk. Meanwhile, when
export expansion brings abundant foreign currency, it reduces inflation.
2.2. Impact of M2 on exports
To succeed in today's global market and win sales against foreign competitors, exporters
must offer their customers attractive sales terms backed by suitable payment method. Since
the ultimate goal of every export sale is to be paid in full and on time, an appropriate payment
method must be chosen carefully to minimize payment risk while also meeting the needs of
the client. buyer. The diversification of total means of payment will create favorable
conditions for enterprises in the export process to create competitive advantages.
Currently, Vietnamese commercial banks mainly provide payment services according to
three methods of money transfer, collection and payment by L/C. This is the list of traditional
international communication products of Vietnamese commercial banks. These products are
all products of payment media money transfer, collection or payment by L/C. Most banks
provide these international payment services. Also with the development of banking
technology and the increasing demand of customers, many banks' reports appear more
specific payment products but basically all come from the above payment methods.
In recent years, the structure of international payment transactions at Vietnamese
commercial banks has changed a lot, the proportion of money transfer transactions is
increasing. In payment for export goods, the proportion of money transfer transactions
increased from 45% in 2013 to 65% in 2017. While the proportion of payments by L/C
decreased from 26% in 2013 to 19% in 2017.
Adapting to information technology and timely changes in accordance with market trends,
making options on payment methods suitable to the characteristics of enterprises and export
products also partly affect the export activities of goods chemical.

2.1.
Impact of disbursed FDI on exports
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has always been considered as one of the pillars of
Vietnam's industrialization, modernization and economic growth.
After more than 25 years of renovation and implementation of the open-door policy,
increasing foreign investment attraction, the FDI sector has become an important part of
Vietnam's economic development. In addition to the significant additional capital for growth,
job creation, technology transfer and management experience, FDI also makes a great
contribution to promoting the industrialized and modernized trade balance. to bring Vietnam
to actively integrate into the international economy.
In the dark color of the economy, in 2013, according to data published by the General
Statistics Office, the registered FDI capital continued to increase with about 21.6 billion USD,
the highest in the past 4 years, showing the role of FDI inflows. The role, position and size of
FDI inflows in the Vietnamese economy.
10


And until 2021 - a year that can be said to be extremely volatile in the global economy,
Despite the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, international trade and foreign
investment are two areas. The brightest of Vietnam's economic picture in 2021. Regarding
import and export, for the first time, Vietnam is among the top 20 countries in international
trade in the world, maintaining a trade surplus for 6 consecutive years. . In trade surplus, the
FDI sector makes a very important contribution. Exports of FDI enterprises reached 247.5
billion USD, up 1.1% compared to 2020 and accounted for 73.6% of export turnover of the
country. The trade surplus of the FDI sector was 29.36 billion USD, making up for the trade
deficit of domestic enterprises of 25.36 billion USD, thus creating a trade surplus of 4 billion
USD. It can be said that this is the brightest part of 2021.
Samsung is the largest export economic group in Vietnam (about 65-66 billion USD/year),
the second largest export is textiles, although in September 2021 the situation is very
pessimistic when the production and supply chain broken due to social distancing, but finally

exported $39 billion, which means that the business has had a drastic change of situation.
It can be seen that from the period of 2013 up to now, FDI has played a very important role in
Vietnam's economy in general and the export market in particular. showing positive signals
amidst the gloomy color of the global economy in general.

2.2.

Source: Macroeconomic indicators: GDP growth, Export and FDI
Impact of EVFTA on exports

Considering a number of countries in the EU, which is currently one of the largest export
markets of Vietnam since the EVFTA came into effect:
❖ Export to Germany
In 2020, Vietnam's exports to Germany accounted for about 2.4% of Vietnam's total export
turnover to the world. In contrast, for Germany, imports from Vietnam only account for about
1% of the country's total import value. This result shows that the German market still has a lot
of room for Vietnamese goods to boost exports in the near future, especially with
opportunities from the EVFTA.
Specifically, since the EVFTA took effect on August 1, 2020, Vietnam's exports to
Germany have had some positive signs, although this is also the period when the COVID-19
epidemic broke out globally and affected the global economy. seriously affect the production
and export activities of Vietnam as well as the import demand of Germany. In the first 5
months of implementing the EVFTA (August-12, 2020) when the epidemic was complicated
in the German market, Vietnam's exports to this market still reached 2.85 billion USD, up 6.1
% compared to the same period of the previous year. Entering 2021, the epidemic became
11


more severe in Vietnam, but Vietnam's exports to Germany still achieved a growth of 10.6%,
to a record of $ 7.3 billion. This result shows that the EVFTA Agreement has had positive

effects to help limit the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and promote the export of
Vietnamese goods to the German market.
❖ Export to Spain
According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's goods
exported to Spain in the first 6 months of 2021 grew by 12.3% over the same period in 2020,
reaching more than 1.1 billion USD. Among the main groups of goods exported to Spain by
Vietnam in the first 6 months of this year, the group of phones and components ranked first in
terms of turnover, accounting for 27% of the total export turnover of goods. goods to this
market, reached 300.23 million USD, up 12.3% over the same period in 2020.

⇨ Comments:
Trade between Vietnam and the EU still has certain improvements after one year since the
EVFTA took effect. Specifically, the study showed that Vietnam's export turnover to the EU
market still increased by over 6% over the same period in 2020, reaching 39.7 billion USD.
This growth is thanks to the recovery of the EU economy in the second quarter of 2021 and
the reduction of tariffs to help promote the export of Vietnamese products to the EU market.

Vietnam's export turnover to the EU since the EVFTA took effect, 2019-2020.
(Unit: billion USD)
Source: General Statistics Office, General Department of Customs

12


3. Research model and research results
III.1. Regression model
From the theory we have the overall regression model (PRM):
ln ln ( exp 01 )
¿ ( CPI ) + β 3∗ln ln ( FDIDIS ) + β 4∗ln ln ( M 2 )+ β5∗EVFTA+u
In there:

o EXP01: Dependent variable - Export (million USD)
o FDIDIS: Disbursed foreign direct investment (billion USD)
o CPI: Consumer Price Index (%)
o M2: Total means of payment (million USD)
o EVFTA: Vietnam's EVFTA signing status
(0: Before signing, 1: After signing)
o β1: Intercept coefficient
o β2, β3, β4, β5: Coefficient of slope
o Ui: Random error
3.2. Estimating the regression model
With the collected data, conducting model regression using Eviews software, we get a
report:
3.1.
Accreditation

3.1.1. Perform t test with βi
a. Perform hypothesis testing with β 2

-

Hypothesis testing: {H 0 : β 2=0 H 1 : β2 ≠ 0

-

Testing standards: T =

-

Rejection domain: W α ={T :|T |>T α / 2 ( n−5 ) }

-

With α =10 % và n=108 → T 0.05 ( 103 )=1.658

^β 2
T (n−5)
Se ( β^ 2)

13


0.150648
=5.134254>T 0.05 (103)
0.029336
→ Reject hypothesis H 0, accept hypothesis H 1: Disbursed FDI has an effect on total export
value of Vietnam.
b. Perform hypothesis testing with β 3
- Hypothesis testing:{H 0 : β 3=0 H 1 : β3 ≠ 0
T qs =

^β 3
Se ( ^β

-

Testing standards: T =

-

Rejection domain: W α ={T :|T |>T α / 2 ( n−5 ) }

-

With α =10 % và n=108 → T 0.05 ( 103 )=1.658

3)

T (n−5)

−3.588212
=−1.746275→∨T qs∨¿T 0.05 (103)
2.054780
→ Reject hypothesis H 0 , accept hypothesis H 1: Consumer price index has an effect on
T qs =

total export value of Vietnam.
c. Perform hypothesis testing with β 4
-

Hypothesis testing: {H 0 : β 4 =0 H 1 : β 4 ≠ 0

-

Testing standards: T =

-

Rejection domain: W α ={T :|T |>T α / 2 ( n−5 ) }

-

With α =10 % và n=108 → T 0.05 ( 103 )=1.658

^β
4
T (n−5)
Se ( ^β 4 )

0.604358
=16.99118 →∨T qs∨¿ T 0.05 (103)
0.035569
→ Reject hypothesis H 0, accept hypothesis H 1: Total means of payment has an effect
T qs=

on total export value of Vietnam.
d. Perform hypothesis testing with β 5
-

Hypothesis testing: {H 0 : β 5=0 H 1 : β5 ≠ 0

-

Testing standards: T =

^β 5
Se ( ^β

5

)

T (n−5)

-

Rejection domain: W α ={T :|T |>T α / 2 ( n−5 ) }

-

With α =10 % và n=108 → T 0.05 ( 103 )=1.658

0.116582
=3.773618 →∨T qs ∨¿ T 0.05 (103)
0.030894
→ Reject hypothesis H 0, accept hypothesis H 1: dummy variable EVFTA has an
T qs=

effect on total export value of Vietnam.
14


3.1.2. The fit of the model is checked by the F
-

Test the hypothesis pair for the regression function:
2

2

{H 0 : R =0 H 1 : R ≠ 0∨{H 0 : The regression function isnot suitable H 1 : The regression function is suitable

2
R /4
( 4 , n−5)
F
- Testing standards: F=
2
(1−R )/( n−5)
( 3 ,n−5)
}
- Rejection domain: W α ={F : F> F α

-

With α =10 %∧n=108, We have:
F qs =

0.912447/ 4
=268.3578
(1−0.912447)/(108−5)

→ F qs > F 0.1 ( 4 , 103 )=3.78
→ Reject hypothesis H 0 , accept hypothesis H 1: The regression model is suitable.

3.1.3. Checking for model defects

a. Multicollinearity test
The multicollinearity test was performed using the Variance Inflation Factors (VIF).
The value of VIF ( X i )is calculated based on the coefficient of determination R2i in the
subvariable regression model X i according to the remaining independent variables of
the model.

1
1−Ri2
A VIF value of approximately 1 means that there is no multicollinearity among the
independent variables in the model. When the VIF value exceeds the threshold 4, the model
needs to be retested. When the VIF value exceeds the threshold of 10, it means that the model
has multicollinearity.
VIF test on Eviews, we have the following results:
VIF ( X i )=

With the value “centered VIF” of all independent variables in the model are
approximately 1 → the model does not have multicollinearity.
b. Incorrect function format test
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To check whether the model has the wrong functional form, we use the Ramsey test
to check.
We have the original model:
ln ln ( exp 01 )
¿ ( CPI ) + β 3∗ln ln ( FDIDIS ) + β 4∗ln ln ( M 2 )+ β5∗EVFTA+u

Check the following model to see if the original model has the wrong functional
form
ln ln ( exp 01 )

¿ ( CPI ) + β 3∗ln ln ( FDIDIS ) + β 4∗ln ln ( M 2 )+ β5∗EVFTA+ β 6∗ln ln ( ^
exp 012 ) + β7∗ln ln ( ^
exp 013) +v
Then, if the original function is suitable, the coefficients β 6 and β 7 will not be

statistically significant. Therefore, the Ramsey test tests a pair of hypotheses:
{H 0 : β 6=β 7=0 H 1 : β 26 + β 27> 0

( ( R 2origin−R 2new )/2 )

-

Inspection standards: F qs =

-

Where 2 is the number of variables added to the model and k' is the number of

2

'

(1−R origin )/(n−k )

variables in the new model.
-

'

Rejection domain: W α ={F , F> F 2 ,n−k }

Here are the results of the Ramsey RESET Test from Eviews:

16

Based on the p−value=0.7705 from the F test, there is not enough basis to reject H 0, so
the original model has the correct functional form.
c. Testing for independent variables is not necessary
Use the test to see if unnecessary independent variables should be removed:

Assumption:{H 0 : β i=0 H 1 : βi ≠ 0

Redundant Variables Test results from Eviews:

17


(remove variable ln ⁡(CPI ))

(remove variable ln ⁡( FDIDIS ))

(remove variable ln ⁡( M 2))
It can be seen that all the p-values of the test to remove quantitative variables in the
model are less than 0.1, corresponding to the 10% significance level. We have enough
H 0,
H 1:
grounds
to
reject
accept
hypothesis
The
variables
ln ln ( CPI ) , ln ln ( FDIDIS ) , ln ⁡(M 2) are all necessary in the model.

d. Test of variance, change error
Performing the White test with the test model:

e 2=¿
α 1+ α 2∗ln ln ( CPI ) +α 3∗ln ln ( FDIDIS )2 +α 4 ( M 2 )2 + α 5∗EVFT A 2
2

18


Get R2white =0.038561
Hypothesis testing:

{H 0 :model with constant variance H 1 :model withvariable variance

Using the Chi Squared test:
Rejection domain:

χ 2=n∗R 2white χ 2(k−1)
2 ( 103 )

2

W α ={ χ : χ > χ ∞ }
Performing the test with Eviews, we get the of p−value the Chi Squared test standard
is 0.3842>0.1 , proving that with the 10% significance level, the original model does

not have the phenomenon of variance.
e. Autocorrelation test
Autocorrelation of order 1

Hypothesis testing:

{H 0 :no autocorrelationof order 1 H 1 : have 1 order autocorrelation

Testing standards:

Rejection domain:

2

χ = ( n− p )∗R

2

2( 1 )

χα

W α ={ χ 2∨ χ 2> χ 2α( 1) }

19


With the test results obtained from Eviews, we have p−value=0.2957>0.1, so at the 10%
significance level, we do not have enough grounds to reject H 0, the model has no first order
autocorrelation.
Autocorrelation of order 2

With the test results obtained from Eviews, we have p−value=0.2930>0.1 ,so at the 10%
significance level, we do not have enough grounds to reject H 0, the model does not have

order 2 autocorrelation.
f. Test for the normal distribution of random factors
Use the Jarque-Bera test for the random error of the model.
Hypothesis testing:
{H 0 :u has a normal distribution H 1 :u no normal distribution
Testing standards:
2
2
s ( k−3 )
JB=n +
χ 2 ( 2)
6
24
Where s is the skewness of u and k is the kurtosis of u.
Rejection domain:
W α ={JB∨JB> χ 20.1(2 ) }

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