Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia - Chapter 9 docx

9
Climate Change and Water Resources
Management in Bangladesh
9.1 INTRODUCTION
9.1.1 LOCATION
Geologically major part of Bangladesh is occupied by one of the largest deltas of the
world, formed by the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River system (Fig. 9.1). The
quaternary deposits cover more than 85% of the country and the rest is by the folded
tertiary sedimentary rocks. Unique geographic and tectonic position and geomorphologic
conditions have made Bangladesh meeting place of natural hazards especially most
vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Himalayas in the North, close to the
subduction zone and Bay of Bengal in the South have made Bangladesh vulnerable to
climate changes. Cyclones, storm-surges, floods, droughts, river and coastal erosion, are
common in Bangladesh (Alam, 1997). Some part of the country is within the seismic zone.
The country has a very low and flat topography, except the Northeast and Southwest
regions. It is almost entirely an alluvial deltaic plain with hills on the Northeast coast and
Southeast margins. About 10% of the country covering 14,000 km
2
is hardly 1 m above the
mean sea level (MSL). One-third of Bangladesh is under tidal influence.
Generally Bangladesh is blessed with a sub-tropical monsoon climate. There are three
prominent seasons in a year namely winter, summer (pre-monsoon) and monsoon. Winter,
which is quite pleasant, begins in November and ends in February. Usually in winter there
is not much fluctuation in temperature. The normal winter temperature ranges from a
minimum of 7°C to a maximum of 31°C. The winter season receives a negligible amount
of rainfall and is characterized by low temperature, low humidity and high solar radiation.
The summer begins from March through May, with a mean temperature of about 30°C
and occasionally a rise above 40°C. The hot summer (pre-monsoon) season receives some
rainfall in occasional heavy thunderstorms and hailstorms. The summer is characterized by
its highest temperature and evaporation rates. The monsoon (rainy) season begins in June
HOSSAIN SHAHID MOZADDAD FARUQUE

1
MD. LIAKATH ALI
2
1
Director General, Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), Ministry of Water
Resources, Government of Bangladesh.
2
Senior National Expert, Program Development Office for Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Plan.
Copyright © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK
and continues up to October with maximum temperature usually around 30°C with high
humidity and low solar radiation. Mean annual temperature throughout the country is
about 26°C but extreme temperatures range from about 5°C to about 43°C (Bangladesh
National Committee of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, 1995).
The average overall annual rainfall is about 2,300 mm. About 81% of the rainfall in
Bangladesh occurs in the wet monsoon period (June-September) (BANCID, 1995).
Fig. 9.1 Location and major river basins of Bangladesh.
The major water related problems of the country are - floods, droughts, river erosion,
land degradation, arsenic contamination in ground water, river sedimentation, low flow in
rivers, cyclone, storm-surges, river pollution, etc. To support its agro-economy Bangladesh,
ensuring people’s safety and mitigating economic damage, in the past water resources
development was focused on flood control, drainage and irrigation activities.
9.2 WATER RESOURCES PROBLEMS AND THEIR MANAGEMENT
9.2.1 FLOODS
Almost every year floods occur in Bangladesh. But the intensity and the magnitude of the
floods vary from year to year. In some years, floods occur locally and in others it
encompasses vast areas of the country. Floods of 1987, 1988 and 1998 were extensive in
a real extent and colossal in terms of destruction (Mirza, 2003). As much as three-fourths
of the country was affected in 1998. Floods cause enormous economic loss to the country
destroying its infrastructures, standing crops, livestock and also human lives.

Natural floods: About one-fifth to one-third of the country is flooded to varying
degrees each year during June through September when about two-thirds of the food grain
(mainly rice) are produced. The following natural floods are encountered:
• River flood;
• Rainfall flood;
• Flash flood;
• Tidal flood;
• Storm-surge flood.

Farakka Barrage
Commissioned 1975
BASIN
BASIN
BASIN
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Table 9.1 shows the flooded area of Bangladesh for different return periods.
The available flood damage information is not always complete. Flood damage
assessments are generally prepared by various organizations, which are often not
systematic and well coordinated. There is a need for a unified and consistent method of
collecting data. One of the best available sources of flood damage information is the
Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. The assessments by various institutions are
compiled together into an overall flood damage assessment. The flood control
embankment itself suffers substantial damage. Flood damage to embankment has a strong
correlation with the magnitude of flood. The properties and infrastructure suffer
substantial damage during large and medium floods. It is noted that in addition to
damages, there are consequential effects such as reduced employment, industrial
production loss, reduced consumer demand, reduced economic activities due to disruption
to daily life of poor people, etc. When converted into monetary term, it is found that flood
damage to infrastructure and property outweighs the damage to crops. But the misery of

the people however cannot be translated into economic indices.
The 1988 flood caused over 1,517 deaths and damages variously estimated at about
$1,200 million. The lower death toll in the 1998 flood of less than 1,000 and a considerable
reduction in livestock deaths (down from 350,000 in 1988 to 26,564 in 1998) reflect
improvements in flood preparedness over the intervening period. The 1998 flood forced
over a million people out of their homes, damaged 16,000 km of roads and 4,500 km of
embankment, and destroyed crops of over 500,000 ha of land.
9.2.2 EROSION
Morphological behavior of the Bangladesh rivers are very unpredictable and in some cases
unstable. This has placed them at constant risk from erosion but is most marked along the
major rivers and their estuaries. The Jamuna is highly unstable and has occupied its present
course for approximately only the last 200 years. Although over the last 25 years there is a
negligible net Westward migration overall, both banks are eroding at a rate of about
70 m/year that shows no sign of abating (Nizamuddin, 2001). The Ganges and Padma
Rivers erode their banks locally, while the lower Meghna is extremely active at Chandpur,
in the region of the Tetulia channels, and in the entire area of Bhola, Hattiya and Sandwip
Islands. The impact of erosion can be sudden and dramatic, even when the riverbank is
protected. Border river erosion is also an essential issue for Bangladesh.
River training and erosion control can be very expensive in human terms because of
the amount of land acquisition required. The amount of land needed varies but often a
broad strip of riverside land is required. The Flood Action Plan (FAP) 21/22 investigations
of river training on the Jamuna required 42 hectares of riverbank land to be procured, so
dislodging and disenfranchising many poor families from along the riverbank chars, often
with inadequate compensation for land and livelihood lost. Future compensation for land
acquired and livelihoods lost, on the basis of the Bhairab Bridge model would be expected
to be much more extensive and thus act as a disincentive to large-scale land acquisition.
H. S. M. FARUQUE AND MD. L. ALI 233
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River training can also cause social conflict, especially if access to the river for
navigation and port facilities, fishing, irrigation, and livestock washing is disrupted.

Facilities for mooring are still highly limited and are inadequate under some existing riverbank
protection schemes. Many people have been displaced and outstanding cases and claims
arising from previous water sector projects have yet to be resolved. Policy stresses the
adoption of socially sensitive, multi-purpose schemes and adherence to participatory
planning as ways of rectifying these fundamental points of conflict.
The popular structural options practicing in Bangladesh for erosion control are:
• Hard points;
• Continuous revetments.
9.2.3 DROUGHTS
Drought occurs when rainfall is absent for a prolonged period of time, causing earth to
parch, wells to dry, underground water level to fall, crops to wither leading to crop failure
and scarcity in fodder for livestock. Because of meager supply of water, food and fodder
both humans and livestock suffer untold miseries. In some places women had to wake up
at midnight to track 5 km to a well to fetch a pitcher full of drinking water (NWMP, 2001). In
other areas the affected people relentlessly dug in dry riverbeds and ultimately ended up
with a pitcher full of foul smelling, muddy, brackish water unfit for human consumption.
Water supplies, the environment, crops and navigation all fall under threat during droughts.
In contrast to the high rainfall brought by the Southwest monsoon from May to
October, there are months without rain in the dry season. This can bring hardship to people
living in areas with poor access to surface water and ground water resources. There were
severe droughts in Bangladesh in 1979, 1981, 1982 and 1989 and between November of
1998 and April of 1999; there was a period of 150 days with almost no rain in Bangladesh.
A GoB report of the Task Force on Drought on what was seen as an impending
drought in 1995 noted that the rainfall in the monsoon had been below average in the NW,
SW, NE, SE and SC Regions (Fig. 9.2) by 35%, 20%, 25%, 30% and 15% respectively.
Corresponding reduction in surface water availability was expected to be 20%, 20%, 5%,
10% and 5%. Overall, it was expected that the areas under Low Lift Pump (LLP) irrigation
would reduce by 55,000 ha. They also expected that GW level would fall by 0.5 m to 3 m,
and that 90,000 Shallow Tube Wells (STW) would be affected. The report stated that aman
crop production in the 1994 season was reduced by 377,000 tons due to the effects of the

drought. The effect of drought is more marked now that irrigated boro (dry season) rice
has become the major rice crop. Streams and water bodies used for LLPs dry up, and STWs
reach their suction limit of 7 m. Farmers using LLP start abstracting water reserved for
environmental needs. STW can be lowered 2 m in pits to reach more water, but deeper
setting is difficult. When farmers draw the water down, there is a corresponding fall in the
village hand pumps, which are also suction mode pumps, set generally on higher land and
consequently more vulnerable. Women seek water from contaminated surface water sources
as a result, with corresponding risks to public health and welfare. Thus water supplies, the
environment, crops and navigation are all under threat during droughts.
Drought monitoring and contingency plans will be prepared for regions that
experience recurrent seasonal shortages of water. These will include action to limit the use
of ground water to human needs if necessary. Obviously, human needs must take
precedence over non-consumptive needs. The government can empower Local
234 WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH
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Government, or any local body it deems fit, to exercise its right to allocate water in
scarcity zones during periods of severe drought. This will clearly need to be planned
judiciously to avoid bias in allocation to one sector at the expense of another.
Fig. 9.2 Map of 8 hydrological regions as in NWMP, 2004.
9.2.4 LOW FLOW SITUATION
There are 57 international rivers flowing over Bangladesh with 54 of them entering from
India and 3 are from Myanmar. There have been disputes over sharing the water of the
international rivers. There is only one Treaty signed in 1996 with India to share waters of
the Ganges River in the dry season (January-May). Bangladesh needs these water sharing
treaties/agreements on all other international rivers to estimate the magnitude of
cross-border inflows in order to facilitate its water management plans. Presently especially
in dry season due to upstream withdrawal/control most of the river flows fall dramatically
to a very low level on which Bangladesh has no control.
H. S. M. FARUQUE AND MD. L. ALI 235
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9.2.5 WATER MANAGEMENT
During the past decades since 1960s huge investments (an average annual development
allocation from the financial year 1990-1991 to 2000-2001 was 173 million dollars) have
been made in flood management, drainage and irrigation schemes and to reclaim and
develop many polder areas. In these areas a careful water management is required to get
optimal results from the investments in the physical infrastructure and enable the farmers
to have a reasonable living. However, although in the initial year after completion of
the polder projects it gave remarkable results but now over the years the actual water
management in the Flood Control and Drainage (FCD/FCDI) schemes of coastal polders
has been below expectation, resulting in lower yields than were envisaged during the
feasibility, design and construction stages.
Water management in FCD schemes is complex and fundamentally different from
traditional water management in irrigation systems. A distinct characteristic of water
management in FCD schemes is that there are many different stakeholders, each with
different, often-conflicting water management demands. The stakeholder’s occupation
or the location of the land owns determine his level of interest in water control. So,
participation of stakeholders in the context of FCD schemes in Bangladesh is crucial for
the planning and design of sustainable water management schemes.
9.2.6 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
The IPCC (2001) in its Third Assessment Report concluded that there was new and
stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the second half of the last
century was attributable to emissions resulting from human activities. It further observed
that it was very likely that the 20
th
century warming has contributed significantly to the
observed sea level rise, through thermal expansion of seawater and widespread loss of
land ice. Projected temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events and sea level rise
have been summarized in Box 9.1. In Bangladesh and the adjacent region, mean observed
temperature change in the last century was 0.4°C, which is comparable to the observed
global mean temperature change (0.6 ± 0.2°C). No discernible changes in precipitation

were observed in the same period. The mean tidal level at Hiron Point (in the Sundarbans)
has shown an increasing trend about 4.00 mm/year. Similarly near Meghna Estuary and
near Cox’s Bazaar it has registered a positive trend of 6.00 mm/year and 7.8 mm/year
respectively. The increment in SLR along the Bangladesh coast is much more pronounced
as compared to the global rate (SMRC, 2000).
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Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, is a victim of
frequent natural calamities like tropical cyclones, storm-surges, tornadoes, floods and
droughts. In the wake of global climate change, the SLR has emerged as a new threat. The
SLR is likely to have greater impact on Bangladesh due to its low and flat topography and
a vast floodplain. Since 21% of the population lives in the low coastal belt, any increase in
sea level will be a problem of ominous proportion for Bangladesh (SMRC, 2000). Sea level
and temperature rise, increased evaporation, changes in precipitation and resultant changes
in cross boundary river flows are identified as the agents of change, which cause the most
threatening impacts in the natural, social and economic systems of the country.
Climate change in the future may compound water resources management problems in
Bangladesh. People in Bangladesh are generally adapted to natural climate variability.
However, there is a necessity of a greater focus on adaptation in the context of climate
change when serious socio-economic damages are expected to occur. In the water
resources sector, the following key areas have been identified for adaptation: drainage
congestion, reduced freshwater availability, disturbance of morphologic processes and
increased intensity and duration of flooding associated with river erosion and disasters.
This chapter addresses possible impacts, key water management issues and adaptation
measures for the water resources sector in the context of future climate change.
Section 9.3 illustrates present water management practices. Section 9.4 describes major
studies carried out on the complex water systems in Bangladesh and states salient findings.
9.3 WATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
An important characteristic for classifying Flood Control and Drainage (FCD) schemes is
the type of flooding they are subjected to. This classification ties in with the four different

types of floods in Bangladesh, namely:
• Rainfall floods;
• River floods;
• Tidal or coastal flooding;
• Flash floods.
It is possible to classify FCD schemes as drainage-only schemes, high level of
protection against river flood schemes, protection against tidal flooding (coastal polders)
schemes and protection against flash flood (Haors - partial protection by submersible
embankment) schemes. Flash floods may occur in the Eastern, Northern and the
Northeastern areas of the country at anytime during the wet season. A flash flood is
characterized by a sharp rise followed by a comparatively rapid recession. The duration of
high flood stages may be for a few days only. A rapid rise in river stage and associated high
velocity may cause large damage to crops and properties.
The tidal floods, is typical for the coastal zone. Coastal areas consist of large estuarine
channels, extensive tidal flats, and low-lying islands. High tides regularly inundate large
tract of these areas. During extreme monsoon storms freshwater runoff from the big rivers,
combined with wind and wave set-up caused by strong Southern winds, inclines the sea
surface on the Bay of Bengal. Therefore the maximum water levels are higher than the
predicted tides. Tide levels determine the inland tidal flooding with saline tidal waters,
causes damage to standing crops.
Wet season floods and water scarcity during the dry season are major challenges for
water resources development and water management in Bangladesh. Cropping patterns
H. S. M. FARUQUE AND MD. L. ALI 237
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and crop yields in the floodplains are strongly affected by floods, as are fisheries and
transportation. In coastal areas, salinity and cyclones are additional factors influencing
farming systems. Over the years the primary objective of water management activities
focused heavily to increase agricultural production through the provision of one, or any
combination, of the following measures: flood control, drainage, reduction of salt
intrusion, and irrigation.

The most commonly used structural options for flood control measures practiced in
Bangladesh are: a) river embankments, b) construction of dams, c) reforestation,
d) network as drainage channels, and e) pump drainage.
Flood Control and Drainage (FCD) schemes are located in the floodplains of the rivers
in Bangladesh and also in the coastal areas. Embankments along the periphery provide
protection against river, or sea floods, or against salt intrusion. Where necessary, sluices
are placed in the embankments to drain natural khals (natural channels which connect the
low-lying area and the rivers). Many inland FCD schemes have field depressions that
contain water during most or all of the year, called beels, in their interior. They are often
connected to rivers through a network of khals or man-made canals and can only be
drained when river levels permit.
In most FCD schemes there are nowadays three distinct cropping seasons, namely:
Kharif-I (mid-April to mid-July), Kharif-II (mid-July to mid-November) and Rabi
(mid-November to April). From an agricultural perspective the FCD schemes are designed
to:
• Protect standing aus against early river floods (Kharif-I);
• Expand the area under aman by excluding flood from the schemes (Kharif-II);
• Retain water in the system during the post-wet season (Rabi).
Water management is a dominant feature of life in rural Bangladesh. It has many forms
and is regulated by many institutions, including customary rights, traditions and social
norms, as well as more formal types of organizations. Every farmer, every fisherman and
the villagers who are not a farmer or a fisherman manage water, both individually and
collectively. In addition, there are specialized groups whose whole livelihood depends on
their ability to manage these resources: professional fishing communities, boatmen, net
makers, shrimp farmers, salt producers, irrigation pump owners and many others. Water
management in FCD schemes is the control of water surpluses, shortages and quality
by adequate operation and maintenance of system elements as canals, sluices, and
embankments to obtain optimal conditions for activities within the boundaries of the FCD
scheme.
9.3.1 WATER MANAGEMENT CONFLICTS

All the stakeholders of a polder do not have the same interest. So, conflicts are found in
almost all types of FCD schemes. These conflicts prevail between:
• Large farmers and small or marginal farmers;
• Highland and lowland farmers;
• Farmers and fishermen;
• Farmers and boatmen; and
• Protected versus unprotected neighborhoods.
238 WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH
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For various reasons operation and maintenance of the FCD schemes is not up to the
mark. Lot of effort is still needed to improve this situation.
9.3.2 ROLE OF FCD/FCDI SCHEMES
The rural economy of Bangladesh is changing under the influence of many other factors
than water control interventions. New crops and cropping techniques now emerged, new
markets developed, transport patterns changed, population pressure increased, new
investments are made, technologies for managing land and water improved and many
other developments imply that rural areas are experiencing dynamic transformations.
FCD schemes created a physical environment for intensive cultivation with High Yielding
Varieties (HYV) crops. They helped in two ways first by saving crops for damages, second
created opportunity for irrigation practices.
In most cases FCD schemes are justified on the grounds that they will improve
conditions for agriculture. More particularly, depending on the scheme, it is argued that
(Flood Plan Coordination Organization, 1992):
• Reductions in normal wet season water levels, duration, and rates of rise in water
level will encourage farmers to adopt more productive crops (rice varieties) which
cannot tolerate unmanaged wet season conditions;
• Damages due to unusual floods will be reduced, resulting in higher average yields
for a given crop;
• Reduced variation in wet season conditions will reduce the risks faced by
farmers, who are then encouraged to adopt HYV technology (which would

otherwise entail high losses in flood years, while the costs of production are higher);
• Irrigation makes a change possible from low yielding rabi crops to more
profitable and productive HYV boro in the dry season.
9.3.3 IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE
The primary objective of the FCD schemes of increasing food production has largely been
achieved. The farmers are ready to invest in more input required by High Yielding Varieties
(HYV), partly because there are fewer losses due to flooding (Flood Plan Coordination
Organization, 1992). In some of the schemes, the targeted agricultural growth rates were
exceeded considerably. In others, the targets seem to have been too high. Most of the gain
in production has come from the shift to improved varieties of rice, which shows the
confidence of the farmers in the performance of the schemes. Drainage congestion is
the major constraint to further growth in rice production. Improvements in design and
maintenance would result in further increase, especially if the drainage problem can be
dealt with adequately. In a floodplain setting, some drainage congestion is probably
unavoidable and a costly solution may not be feasible. The agricultural performances in the
four selected FCD schemes are summarized in Table 9.2.
9.3.4 IRRIGATION AND GROUND WATER
In Bangladesh irrigation is categorized as either minor or major irrigation. Minor irrigation
comprises mostly of farmer-operated and owned tube wells and low-lift pumps, and also a
small area irrigated by government owned DTWs and small Local Government
Engineering Department (LGED) projects (85%). Major irrigation comprises the Bangladesh
H. S. M. FARUQUE AND MD. L. ALI 239
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240 WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN BANGLADESH
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Water Development Board (BWDB) surface irrigation projects and accounts for 8% of the
total. Rest was covered by traditional irrigation practices. Most of these BWDB projects
have flood control and drainage (FCD) component. Irrigation in Bangladesh is therefore
largely in the hands of the private sector.
Ground water is the most important source for domestic, industrial and irrigation

supplies at present. Present trends in ground water development for irrigation have shown
the alluvial aquifers of Bangladesh to be amongst the most productive in the world. The
aquifer is recharged through rainfall and flooding, and replenishes every year, except
beneath Dhaka City where ground water abstraction now exceeds recharge. The estimate
of potential recharge is particularly sensitive to the deep percolation characteristics of the
sub-soil, monsoon rainfall depth and the extent of flooding during the monsoon.
Expansion of ground water irrigation nevertheless causes seasonal water levels to
decline further, although in those areas where irrigation is already highly developed, this
results in a small change from the current levels. Increased seasonal draw down is of
significance both to rural water supply planning, as well as to the types of technologies
required for irrigation abstraction. Fully understanding the sustainable limits of GW use
and the impacts that quality has on its utility, and the long-term strategic implications.
9.3.5 FISHERIES SITUATION
Fishing is the main source of income for the professional fishing communities found
throughout Bangladesh. These communities are increasingly facing problems, with
declining fish stocks and reduced access to open water bodies. These processes are
aggravated further by hydraulic structures, through interrupting fish migration and
excluding floodwaters. The farmers on the other hand require more secure water
management conditions by expanding both irrigation and farming areas. The present
availability and future sustainability of both subsistence and professional fishing is a key
aspect of water management in the polder areas.
Fisheries and FCD development are in principle in conflict with each other. The sweet
water capture fisheries resources are dependent on inland water bodies. The annual
flooding and post-flood standing water in the floodplains has a significant role in fish
production. In the wet season, floodplains play the primary role of re-population and
increase of biomass in open water fishery production systems. However within the flood
controlled areas the culture fisheries have expanded dramatically in the recent years
(BWDB, 2000).
9.3.6 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Flood protection schemes bring about overall improvements, through the reduction of

flood depth to ensure more secure environments for living as well as for agriculture.
However, they can also bring about drastic changes in the natural water regime, which may
result in an imbalance in aquatic environments and ecosystems. For example, structural
interventions disrupt the free flowing environment of the floodplains. Moreover,
continued congestion, or stagnation can prevent natural flushing and lead to the spread of
water-borne diseases that may threaten public health. Total elimination of floodwater can
also severely impact ground water recharge. Cultivation, land settlement, vegetation
clearance, hunting and fishing, all have increased in the scheme areas as population density
has increased at an alarming rate over the last few decades. The FCD schemes
undoubtedly contribute to the loss of bio-diversity particularly of aquatic, birds and
vegetation species.
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Analyzing the description presented above it is clear that the water development in
FCD schemes have a wide diversity in demands and interests of the stakeholders. It shows
a wide scope for integration among the various aspects of water development, especially
environmental, agricultural and institutional aspects. In the past no legal framework and
no water rights for stakeholders participation in the development and management of FCD
schemes were defined. Recently this has been outlined for new reclamations, as well as for
improvements in the existing schemes. Conceptual understanding and recognition of the
importance of operation and maintenance in FCD schemes need to be improved. Now it
has been mandatory to conduct Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for all types of
FCD/I projects.
9.3.7 OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE
FCD schemes need to develop sustainable means for the operation and maintenance of
hydraulic structures and watercourses. This requires a sound and sustainable financial base.
This has never been the case within any responsible agency, specially the Bangladesh
Water Development Board, which continually suffers from inadequate Government
budget. Which demands for the need for alternative financing. This need resulted in the
proposal that the stakeholders should pay for, or contribute to the services they receive.

Measures would have to be taken to transfer at least a part of the responsibilities
and financial contribution to operation and maintenance of irrigation and drainage
infrastructure from the public sector to the stakeholders. Legal provisions for collection of
water fees have been brought in place for some years. Application of these rules has been
inadequate and the collection of fees is minimal.
9.4 MAJOR STUDIES, POLICIES AND PLANS
Bangladesh has suffered from the twin problems of ‘floods and droughts’ for centuries.
After the country had suffered from unprecedented floods in two consecutive years 1954
and 1955, a flood commission was constituted in December of 1955 by the government to
look into the problems and to advise on remedial measures (East Pakistan Water and
Power Development Authority, 1964). Subsequently, a UN Technical Assistance Mission
popularly known as the Krug Mission reviewed the gigantic problems associated with the
floodings and submitted a report in 1957. Based on the recommendations of the Krug
Mission, the East Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (EPWAPDA) was
created in 1959 for the unified and coordinated development of the water and power
resources in the present Bangladesh.
In the context of the increased need for agricultural development, in 1961, the East
Pakistan Agricultural Development Corporation (EPADC), presently the Bangladesh
Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) was created to supply seed, fertilizers,
pumps and other production inputs to farmers.
9.4.1 EPWAPDA MASTER PLAN (1964)
The EPWAPDA, with the help of the International Engineering Company Inc. (IECO),
prepared a Master Plan for water resources development in 1964 (EPWAPDA, 1964). This
plan marked the beginning of the formulation of an integrated plan for flood control and
development of water resources of the country. The Master Plan organized the limited
available hydrological data and recommended emphasis on systematic and scientific
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hydrological data collection and processing. The Master Plan included a portfolio of
58 land and water development projects including 3 barrages on major rivers for

implementation spread over 20 years, beginning in 1965. These projects envisaged flood
protection for 5.8 mha of land. Not all the identified projects were taken up for
implementation mainly due to shortage of funds. Irrigation within the flood-protected
areas was foreseen, but emphasis was given to flood control through a system of dykes
and polders. Three alternative options were proposed:
• Flood embankments with gravity drainage;
• Flood embankments with tidal sluice drainage;
• Flood embankments with pump drainage.
9.4.2 IBRD & IDA REPORT (1972)
The emphasis shifted from large-scale projects for high-level flood control to quick
yielding smaller irrigation projects following the IBRD’s Land and Resources Sector Study
in 1972. The development of minor irrigation through low lift pumps (LLP) and tube wells,
to some extent supported by complementary low cost FCD schemes, was advocated.
9.4.3 FLOOD ACTION PLAN
The disastrous floods that struck Bangladesh in 1987 and 1988 attracted worldwide
attention and resulted in a concentrated international effort to find a long-term solution to
the persisting flooding problem. As a result the Flood Action Plan (FAP) was initiated in
1989, which was coordinated by the World Bank. The Government of Bangladesh setup
the Flood Plan Coordination Organization (FPCO) in 1990 to supervise, coordinate and
monitor the FAP activities. Under FAP project, 26 studies were conducted.
The FAP studies culminated in the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management
Strategy (BWFMS) report (FPCO, 1995). The report noted the limitations of earlier master
plans, which had focused too heavily on agriculture development without adequate
consideration of the needs of the other sectors. A widespread criticism of earlier plans was
that the social and environmental impacts of land and water development were not being
addressed. Responding to this, the BWFMS recommended that the government should
formulate a national water policy that addressed these issues and that a comprehensive
National Water Management Plan (NWMP) should be prepared within this framework.
9.4.4 GUIDELINES FOR PEOPLES PARTICIPATION (GPP)
In August of 1994 the Ministry of Water Resources issued Guidelines for Peoples

Participation in Water Development Projects. Through the approval of these guidelines in
June of 1995 the Government of Bangladesh expressed its commitment to participatory
water management in FCD schemes. In April of 1998 the Bangladesh Water Development
Board came out with the revised guidelines. In view of too many guidelines already
formulated and more than one agency being involved in the process, in May of 1999, an
inter-agency taskforce committee was constituted to integrate all approaches in this regard
for developing the guidelines for participatory water management. The committee
finalized a guideline in 2001.
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9.4.5 NATIONAL WATER POLICY
Past experiences in the water sector development showed the necessity of a good water
policy in Bangladesh. The National Water Policy was finalized in 1999 (Ministry of Water
Resources, 1999). In this policy it was noted, among others, that the lack of inter-agency
coordination among the various organizations (government and non-government
organizations).
The National Water Policy will be reviewed periodically and revised as necessary.
Objectives of the National Water Policy are broadly:
• To address issues related to the harnessing and development of all forms of
surface water and ground water and management of these resources in an
efficient and equitable manner;
• To ensure the availability of water to all elements of society, including the poor
and the underprivileged, and to take into account the particular needs of women
and children;
• To accelerate the development of sustainable public and private water delivery
systems with appropriate legal and financial measures and incentives, including
delineation of water rights and water pricing;
• To bring institutional changes that will help decentralize the management of
water resources and enhance the role of women in water management;
• To develop a legal and regulatory environment that will help the process of

decentralization, sound environmental management, and improve the investment
climate for the private sector in water development and management;
• To develop a state of knowledge and capability that will enable the country to
design future water resources management plans by itself with economic
efficiency, gender equity, social justice and environmental awareness to facilitate
achievement of the water management objectives through broad public
participation.
9.4.6 NATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN (NWMP)
One of the main proposals of the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy was
the preparation of a broad-based National Water Management Plan (multi-sectoral). The
emphasis is on year round water management, social and environmental considerations,
full participation of stakeholders, particularly affected people, in the planning process and
institutional development. The Water Resources Planning Organization started the
preparation of the plan in March of 1998. They have already published the draft
development strategy for the plan. Now the plan is in the final stage and waiting for
approval.
9.5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR IN BANGLADESH
The population of Bangladesh is already severely affected by storm-surges.
Catastrophic events in the past have caused damage up to 100 km inland. It is hard to
imagine to what extent these catastrophes would be with accelerated sea level rise. In
Figure 9.3, digital terrain modeling techniques have been used to display the impact of
sea level rise in Bangladesh. A three-dimensional view of the country has been overlaid
with the current coastline and major rivers and potential future sea levels at 1.5 m. Since
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Dhaka
Dhaka
Fig. 9.3 Potential impact of SLR on Bangladesh (UNEP).

Even a very cautious projection of 10 cm sea level rise, which may likely happen well
before 2030, would inundate 2,500 km
2
, about 2% of the total land area. Patuakhali, Khulna
and Barisal regions are most vulnerable.
The probable effects of global climate change have been examined in general by the
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and are regularly reviewed. Warrick,
BCAS, Stratus and Huq have studied the findings for Bangladesh in detail. The most
recent projections set out the changes anticipated in Bangladesh, which are (NWMP,
2001):
• A rise in sea level in the order of 30 cm by the year 2030 and 70 cm by 2075. This
suggests a rise of 25 cm by 2025, at the rate of 1 cm/year.
• An increase in monsoon rainfall of about 10% by the year 2030 and 25% by 2050.
Dry season rainfall is projected to reduce in the long-term.
Climate change will also affect flows in the Transboundary Rivers. Temperature changes
would affect the timing and rate of snowmelt in the upper Himalayan reaches, which would
alter the flow regime in the rivers that rise in the Himalayas. Lower dry season rainfall and
increased water demands due to higher temperatures would increase abstractions from
rivers upstream and reduce the flow reaching Bangladesh.
9.5.1 CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The key consequences of climate change for Bangladesh are:
this scenario was calculated in 1989, the expected rate of sea level rise has been modified.
At present expected rates, this stage can occur in about 150 years from now.
H. S. M. FARUQUE AND MD. L. ALI 245
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In the monsoon;
• Increased flooding due to increased monsoon season rainfall.
• Worsening drainage congestion, water logging and flooding due to higher sea
levels and a consequential rise in riverbed levels. Higher sea levels will increase
the tide-locked period for tidal drainage sluices and reduce their drainage

capacity.
• Marginally increased coastal erosion is anticipated due to greater foreshore depths
and corresponding wave depths.
In the dry season:
• Changes in the balance of GW recharge and demand on aquifers due to changes
in climate parameters.
• Increase in demand on surface resources.
• Reduced transboundary surface water inflows into Bangladesh
• Disturbance of existing morphological processes by the changed balance between
wet and dry season flows and changes in sediment transport and deposition caused
by changes in flows and water levels. This will affect riverbank erosion and
channel sedimentation.
• Increased incidence of cyclones making landfall due to reduced energy losses
over warmer seas in the Bay of Bengal.
Impacts on the water supply and demand situation calculations have been made for
the key meteorological stations in Bangladesh of the changes in rainfall and potential
evapo-transpiration. The average for the country are shown in the Figures 9.4 and 9.5
(NWMP, 2000).
In general, the combination of increased rainfall and unchanged evapo-transpiration in
the monsoon results in increased GW recharge. By contrast, the combination of unchanged
rainfall and increased evapo-transpiration in the dry season results in increased demands.
Because of its very low elevation and exposure to various water related hazards,
Bangladesh is at great risk from global climate change. Although the magnitude of the
changes in climate may appear to be small, they could substantially increase the
magnitude of existing climatic events (floods, droughts, cyclones), and decrease their
return period. For example, a 10% increase in precipitation may increase runoff depth by
one-fifth, and the probability of an extremely wet year by 700%. The likely climate change
scenarios for Bangladesh are provided in Table 9.3.
The SLR is likely to have greater impact on low-lying coastal areas. The loss of land
through inundation and coastal erosion, increased frequency of coastal flood with a rising

base level are one of the impacts of SLR on the coastal areas of the world.
9.6 FUTURE FRAMEWORK OF MANAGEMENT
Perceptions about vulnerability context vary according to socio-economic condition of
the people. For poorer men, (lack of) employment is a major vulnerability issue, while
cyclone has been perceived as a major issue among the relatively rich. Women of all strata
perceive (availability of) domestic water as a prominent issue, while women of richer
households consider employment as an important issue. Poorer women also consider
sanitation and health as important issues. Law and order has surfaced as another
important issue among the richer households.
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Fig. 9.4 Changes in rainfall due to GCC.
Fig. 9.5 Changes in potential evapo-transpiration due to GCC.
Shocks, trends and seasonality could be of natural origin or having accelerated
and/or aggravated through human induced activities. As such the context has been
elaborated under natural hazards and man-made hazards.
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9.6.1 CYCLONES AND STORM-SURGES
Storm-surges associated with tropical cyclones have the most damaging effect on loss of
human lives, livestock and properties in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Cyclonic storms
with winds of more than 120 km/hr occur with the advent of the monsoon season. These
are particularly severe just before and after the monsoon. Winds of over 160 km/hr, heavy
downpours and tidal surges of over 6 m above the normal level have brought devastation
to life and property. The predicted surge heights at the coast corresponding to return
periods of 20 years, 50 years and 100 years for five coastal regions are presented in
Table 9.4.
The average frequency of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal is about 6 per year,
but not all of them strike Bangladesh. The country is also periodically affected by cyclonic
storms in the coastal districts. The country has over 700 km of coastline on the mainland

and several offshore islands in the Bay of Bengal. During the last 125 years, over
42 cyclones have hit the coastal belt; 14 occurred during the last 25 years. Cyclones often
take a heavy toll in human life, livestock, crops, properties and physical infrastructure
(World Bank, 1995).
9.6.2 WATER LEVELS, INUNDATIONS AND WATER LOGGING
Any rise of the sea level will propagate upstream into the river system. In Bangladesh, this
backwater effect will be pronounced because of the morphologically dynamic rivers, which
will adapt their bed levels in a relatively short time period (Huq et al., 1996). This whole
process will lead to decreased river gradients, increased flood risks and increased drainage
congestion. Since most of the coastal plains are within 3 m to 5 m from MSL, it was
previously thought that a significant part of the coastal areas (as high as 18% of the
country) would be completely inundated by rising seawater levels (Huq et al., 1995;
Houghton, 1996). This speculation was based upon two major approximations: (a) the
coastal plains are not protected, and (b) the seawater front will follow the contour line. In
reality, however, it is found that most of the coastal plains in the central regions are
protected. Due to the backwater effect, embankments further land inwards may be topped
and areas flooded. This could still turn most of the seaward polders into islands.
Drainage congestion may become an even more serious threat than higher flood risks.
Due to siltation and poor maintenance of the drainage channel network in many parts of
the coastal zone, drainage congestion is already a grave problem (EGIS, 1998), and the
problem is to increase considerably. Proper emphasis should be given to the fact that
protection measures against inundation by embankments interrupt the natural processes
of land sedimentation and delta formation. This implies that subsidence and sea level rise
will not be compensated by sedimentation, and the effect of inundation and drainage
congestion will be even greater in the future. These amplifying effects are particularly
alarming, and indicate that quite a new approach may be required to face the problems in
especially the seaward parts of Bangladesh.
Unlike the densely populated seafront areas, the Sundarbans is not protected and is
heavily influenced by tidal effects. A rise in sea level will tend to inundate the mudflats of
the forest and reduce the land area of the forest. The forest floor, however, may be

experiencing a natural uplift at a rate similar to the anticipated rate of sea level change.
Whether natural uplift is strong enough to counterbalance sea level rise is very uncertain,
and present research continues to emphasize the vulnerability aspects of the Sundarbans.
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Saline water intrusion is highly seasonal in Bangladesh; it is at its minimum during the
monsoon (June-October) when the 3 major rivers discharge about 80% of the annual
freshwater flow. In winter months the saline front begins to penetrate inland, and the
affected areas rise sharply from 10% in the monsoon to over 40%. Climate change would
increase salt intrusion through several means:
• Directly pushing the saline/fresh waterfront in the rivers through higher sea
levels;
• Decreased river flows from upstream increase the pushing effect from the sea;
• Upward pressure on the saline/freshwater interface in the ground water aquifers
(every cm of sea level rise will result in a thirty-fold rise of the interface because
of the hydrostatic pressure balance);
• Percolation from the increased saline surface waters into the ground water
systems;
• Increasing evaporation rate in winter, leading to enhanced capillary action and
subsequent salinization of coastal soils; and
• Increasing storm surges that carry seawater.
All these effects would have significant adverse impacts in the coastal areas. Climate
change induced extreme weather events, especially low flow conditions in winter, will
accentuate the salinity intrusion in the coastal areas (Habibullah et al., 1998).
Agricultural activities in Bangladesh will suffer greatly from impacts of climate change.
Increased salinity levels will reduce freshwater availability for irrigation, while growing
drainage congestion problems will result in longer periods of flood inundation. This will
reduce the areas suitable for rice production. In addition, increased coastal morphological

dynamics will contribute to the existing problem of loss of valuable agricultural land due to
erosion.
In recent years, over 2,000 cyclone shelters have been built in the coastal areas to
save human lives. But no such infrastructure has been built for livestock, food grains and
other perishable items. These resources will increasingly experience the threat
destruction. Specific recommendations for adaptation are proposed (World Bank, 2000) in
relation to most of the climate change impacts. However, coastal defense against sea level
rise by physical interventions will be expensive. Huq et al. (1995) estimated that the cost of
defending against a 1 m sea level rise would be $1 billion. This does not include the
associated costs of impacts of hard coastal defenses, such as sea walls, on e.g. tourism
and bio-diversity.
9.6.3 NON-STRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT
Disaster management is largely about non-structural measures that have little impact upon
the environment. Indeed, the essence of the strategy is to allow nature to take its
course, and help people accommodate and adjust to the impacts. In comparison with a
“do-nothing” scenario, it is obviously necessary to keep people aware and help to take
precautionary measure as well as measures after the disaster. Structural measures such as
embankments and training works have adverse environmental impacts in some cases,
which has to be minimized in a suitable way. On environmental grounds therefore,
flood-proofing measures have been proposed. But these measures are suitable only for
local or smaller area.
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9.6.4 FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING
Flood forecasting is part of the overall national flood preparedness strategy. Presently the
Flood Forecasting and Warning Center can accurately forecast flood levels at a limited
number of locations for up to 48 hours ahead, though this has little applicability in the local
context as a mechanism for public awareness-raising. Work is underway to improve the
technical aspects of flood preparedness.
Improved communications networks and the effective use of mass and electronic media

(including the Internet and E-mail) as well as hand radios and sirens are expected to
improve locally based mass warning systems. Invigorated community mobilization
program for men and women, paramedical training, wealth-creation campaigns which would
permit greater access for the remote communities to amenities like transistor radios, and
access for the elite to better weather forecasting and warnings through cable television,
would contribute to increased understanding and knowledge of disasters before they strike.
Inter-personal networks may still be required to target fishermen and other vulnerable
groups. At the same time, communities have indicated that auditory media such as drums
are effective in signaling community-wide alerts and should be re-introduced as a warning
mechanism.
9.6.5 MANAGEMENT IN THE FUTURE
Overall, the incidence of flood, erosion and drought events is likely to increase rather than
decrease in the future, and little can be done within Bangladesh to prevent them from
happening. This is recognized in the National Water Policy, which underlines the
importance of implementing effective non-structural measures to reduce the impact on
people of material losses and damage, and suggests changes in agriculture and land-use
practices, flood preparedness and disaster management. Some flood control measures
(structural) have to be taken at the existing ones are to be strengthened, at least to protect
the country from worsening situation i.e. to maintain the present day situation. Proposals
of creation of reservoir in Nepal may be looked into, which will reduce flood situation as
well as improve low water flow or drought situation. The polders in coastal areas may
have to be strengthened and raised. The country should focus on the non-structural
measures in an integrated way.
General options for non-structural measures are:
• Zoning (both horizontal and vertical);
• Warning systems;
• Hazard preparedness;
• Improved communications;
• Relief and rehabilitation.
Options for managing erosion:

• Low cost erosion control measures;
• Erosion forecasting and warning system.
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Options for managing droughts:
• Regulation;
• Drought proofing;
• Drought forecasting and warning system.
Future improvement possibilities are:
• Financing (loan, insurance etc. for the affected people);
• Workable institutional arrangements;
• Risks and uncertainties;
• Regionality;
• Integrated approach for the improvement.
9.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS
Possible change in climate will complicate water management problem in Bangladesh. In
order to minimize the potential risks, studies have been undertaken regarding adaptation
to climate change in Bangladesh and there appears to be consensus that the country is too
vulnerable to be able to ignore the anticipated effects in current and future planning. Many
of the proposed strategies, which are those, needed even without climate change effects in
order to accommodate the needs of the rising population.
The basic strategies identified for accommodating the effects of climate change are:
(a) Physical measures to reduce drainage congestion (or at least avoid worsening
the present situation).
(b) Pumped or other natural energy based (wind or tidal current) drainage may be
required.
(c) Land filling using natural or artificial methods to prevent, or at least reduce,
inundation and promote drainage.
(d) Increased tree and mangrove planting on accreted lands and in coastal belts.
(e) Measures for the improvement of livelihood condition of the coastal people.

(f) Encourage more efficient use of water resources.
Strategic adaptation to climate change should produce a coordinated response,
supported by all stakeholders, on three different levels:
• Planning and natural resources management, including the participation of
different stakeholders in the decision-making process;
• Information needs, management and dissemination;
• International positioning and representation.
It is recommended that the next steps to reduce vulnerability due to impacts of climate
change and SLR must concentrate on the adaptation mechanisms of planning, information
management and international actions. Here, the National Water Management Plan (NWMP)
that is currently being developed and the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Policy
(ICZMP) under preparation offer key opportunities.
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The following specific actions are recommended:
• Establish an operational structure or committee to coordinate climate change
activities (planning and design) in Bangladesh.
• Strengthen the existing structure and ongoing processes to develop and
implement integrated water resources management and strengthen integrated
coastal zone management, focusing on protection, land-use and water
management.
• Alternative crops, livelihoods attention to water management and access to local
coping and adaptation.
• Establish, manage and execute a coordinated research agenda on climate change
impacts and develop and operate a shared climate change knowledge base.
• Promote, structure and support international activities. Two types of
international activities have been identified: (i) international debates on effects,
mitigation and adaptation, and (ii) water sharing negotiations with neighboring
countries.
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