Climate management issues economics, sociology, and politics

Tai Lieu Chat Luong


Climate Management
Issues
Economics, Sociology, and Politics


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Climate Management
Issues
Economics, Sociology, and Politics

Julie Kerr Gines


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CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
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Contents

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Author.................................................................................................................... xiii
Introduction............................................................................................................xv
1 The Earth’s Climate System.......................................................................... 1
Overview............................................................................................................1

Introduction....................................................................................................... 2
Development......................................................................................................3
What Is Climate Change?...........................................................................4
The Global System Concept........................................................................7
The Atmosphere’s Structure.......................................................................8
The Carbon Cycle: Natural versus Human Amplification.................. 10
The Hydrologic Cycle and the Relationships between the Land,
Ocean, and Atmosphere............................................................................ 12
Global Energy Balance.............................................................................. 15
Rates of Change.......................................................................................... 17
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Change..................................... 18
Extreme Weather........................................................................................ 21
The Role of Ocean Circulation in Climate Change............................... 24
The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt and Consequences of
Destabilization: Abrupt Climate Change............................................... 27
Effects of Sea-Level Rise............................................................................ 29
Future Projections...................................................................................... 30
Conclusions...................................................................................................... 31
Discussion........................................................................................................34
References........................................................................................................ 35
Suggested Reading......................................................................................... 37
2 The Role of Greenhouse Gases................................................................... 39
Overview.......................................................................................................... 39
Introduction..................................................................................................... 40
Development.................................................................................................... 40
Radiation Transmission............................................................................ 41
The Natural and Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.....................................42
Radiative Forcing....................................................................................... 46
The Earth’s Energy Balance...................................................................... 47
Greenhouse Gases...................................................................................... 48

Climate Change Potential......................................................................... 50
Carbon Sequestration................................................................................ 52
Sinks and Sources...................................................................................... 53
Types of Carbon Sequestration................................................................ 58
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Impacts of Deforestation........................................................................... 60
Anthropogenic Causes and Effects: Carbon Footprints...................... 62
Areas Most at Risk.....................................................................................65
Fossil Fuels and Climate Change............................................................ 66
The New Carbon Balance: Summing It All Up..................................... 68
The Concern about Coal Emissions......................................................... 72
Health Issues Associated with Climate Change................................... 74
Contributors to Climate Change and Pollution.....................................80
Key Impacts................................................................................................ 81
Conclusions......................................................................................................83
Discussion........................................................................................................83
References........................................................................................................84
Suggested Reading......................................................................................... 88
3 Climate Change and Its Effect on Ecosystems........................................ 89
Overview.......................................................................................................... 89
Introduction..................................................................................................... 90
Development....................................................................................................90

The Results of Climate Change on Ecosystems..................................... 95
Impacts to Forests...................................................................................... 96
Impacts to Rangelands, Grasslands, and Prairies............................... 101
Impacts on Polar Ecosystems................................................................. 104
Impacts to Desert Ecosystems................................................................ 108
Desertification...................................................................................... 110
Heat Waves........................................................................................... 115
Wildfire................................................................................................. 117
Mountain Ecosystems in Danger Worldwide...................................... 118
Lack of Water Storage......................................................................... 120
Glaciers and Flooding........................................................................ 120
Challenges in Alpine Regions........................................................... 121
Challenges in Marine Environments.................................................... 122
Temperate Marine Environments..................................................... 122
The Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Locations.................... 122
Sea-Level Rise...................................................................................... 123
The Effects of Climate Change on Open Oceans........................... 124
Tropical Marine Environments......................................................... 124
Fragile Ecosystems: Reefs and Corals.............................................. 125
Climate Change Stress to Coral Reefs.............................................. 125
Freshwater Environments.................................................................. 126
IPCC Assessment................................................................................ 127
Conclusion..................................................................................................... 127
Discussion...................................................................................................... 128
References...................................................................................................... 129
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 133


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4 The Inception of Climate Change Management................................... 135
Overview........................................................................................................ 135
Introduction................................................................................................... 136
Development.................................................................................................. 136
The Montreal Protocol: A Working Model........................................... 136
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change and the Kyoto Protocol............................................................. 139
The UNFCCC............................................................................................ 139
The Kyoto Protocol................................................................................... 141
The U.S. Response and International Reactions.................................. 144
The G8........................................................................................................ 149
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.............................. 150
Working Group I................................................................................. 151
Working Group II................................................................................ 152
Working Group III............................................................................... 153
IPCC Reports............................................................................................ 154
Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis.................... 154
Working Group II Report: Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability................................................................................ 156
Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change........................ 158
The Bali Conference (2007)..................................................................... 159
Copenhagen Climate Change Conference (2009)................................ 161
Cancun Convention (2010)...................................................................... 163
Bangkok (2011).......................................................................................... 165
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 166
Discussion...................................................................................................... 167

References...................................................................................................... 168
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 169
5 Sociological Connections to Climate Change....................................... 171
Overview........................................................................................................ 171
Introduction................................................................................................... 172
Development.................................................................................................. 172
The Environment and Sociology........................................................... 172
The Need for Biodiversity....................................................................... 182
Environmental Movements: The Classic Case of Earth Day............. 183
The Ramifications of Climate Change on Society............................... 185
Climate Justice.......................................................................................... 186
Immigration Issues.................................................................................. 187
One Explanation to Encourage Going Green....................................... 188
Other Social Factors to Consider........................................................... 189
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 192
Discussion...................................................................................................... 193
References...................................................................................................... 194
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 195


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Contents

6 Human Psychology and the Media.......................................................... 197
Overview........................................................................................................ 197
Introduction................................................................................................... 197
Development.................................................................................................. 198

Climate Change, Human Psychology, Cultural Values,
and the Media........................................................................................... 198
The Power of the Media.......................................................................... 201
Keeping a Journalistic Balance.............................................................. 202
Scientists’ Mindsets and Data Change................................................. 205
The Occasional Data Flaw...................................................................... 207
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 209
Discussion...................................................................................................... 210
References...................................................................................................... 211
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 212
7 The Role of International Organizations............................................... 213
Overview........................................................................................................ 213
Introduction................................................................................................... 213
Development.................................................................................................. 214
The Evolution of International Cooperation........................................ 214
The Role of International Organizations.............................................. 216
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership................. 216
European Climate Change Programme.......................................... 217
International Carbon Action Partnership........................................ 219
The Progress of Individual Countries................................................... 220
Iceland................................................................................................... 221
Norway.................................................................................................225
Japan......................................................................................................225
Nations Working toward Sustainability............................................... 226
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 228
Discussion...................................................................................................... 229
References...................................................................................................... 229
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 230
8 The Political Arena...................................................................................... 233
Overview........................................................................................................ 233

Introduction................................................................................................... 233
Development..................................................................................................234
The Current Political Climate in the United States.............................234
President Obama’s Outlook on Climate Change at Election............. 236
The Beginnings of Change in Legislation............................................ 239
Current Executive Branch Action.......................................................... 241
BACT Guidance................................................................................... 242
The Tailoring Rule............................................................................... 243
Endangerment Finding...................................................................... 243


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Mandatory Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule.................................. 244
Federal Vehicle Standards.................................................................. 244
Renewable Fuel Standard................................................................... 245
Current Congressional Action............................................................... 247
Congressional Input and Contributions toward Climate Change
Legislation with Obama.......................................................................... 249
The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009................. 249
Past Congressional Input and Contributions toward Climate
Change Legislation.................................................................................. 251
The Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act of 2007.................. 252
The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2008............................... 252
The International Political Arena ......................................................... 255
Policies in Key Countries........................................................................ 255

Conclusions.................................................................................................... 259
Discussion...................................................................................................... 260
References...................................................................................................... 261
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 262
9 Sociopolitical Impacts of Climate Change............................................. 265
Overview........................................................................................................ 265
Introduction................................................................................................... 265
Development.................................................................................................. 266
Climate Change, National Security, and Terrorism............................ 266
Climate Change, Inaction, and War...................................................... 272
Climate Change, Conflict, and State Fragility..................................... 273
The Concept of Climate Justice and Equity......................................... 277
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 278
Discussion...................................................................................................... 279
References...................................................................................................... 280
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 281
10 Military Issues and Climate Change...................................................... 283
Overview........................................................................................................ 283
Introduction................................................................................................... 283
Development.................................................................................................. 285
Climate Change and Military Effectiveness........................................ 285
The Pentagon Takes the Lead on Cutting Back on Fossil Fuels........ 288
DoD Embraces Green Energy: Turning Goals into Examples........... 289
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 291
Discussion...................................................................................................... 292
References...................................................................................................... 293
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 294
11 Economics of Climate Change and Socioeconomic Implications..... 297
Overview........................................................................................................ 297

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Contents

Introduction................................................................................................... 297
Development.................................................................................................. 298
Climate Change and Economic Considerations.................................. 298
Economic Impacts of Drought and Desertification............................. 302
The Fishing and Forestry Industries.....................................................304
Changes in Monsoon Patterns...............................................................306
Agriculture and Food Production.........................................................308
Impacts to the Recreation and Tourism Industry............................... 312
Healthcare and Labor-Related Impacts................................................ 315
Transportation and Energy Considerations......................................... 320
Resulting Insurance Costs and Impacts............................................... 322
The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change...................... 328
Meeting the Challenges of Climate Impacts........................................ 332
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 336
Discussion...................................................................................................... 336
References...................................................................................................... 338
Suggested Reading.......................................................................................343
12 The Economics of Mitigation Options....................................................345
Overview........................................................................................................345
Introduction...................................................................................................345
Development..................................................................................................346
Cap and Trade..........................................................................................346
Project-Based Markets............................................................................. 347

Allowance-Based Markets......................................................................348
The Economics of Cap and Trade.......................................................... 350
Economics of Mitigation......................................................................... 351
Carbon Capture and Storage.................................................................. 353
Geological Formation Sequestration..................................................... 356
Ocean Sequestration................................................................................ 359
Adaptation Strategies.............................................................................. 363
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 366
Discussion...................................................................................................... 367
References...................................................................................................... 368
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 370
13 Professional Guidance: Climate Research, Modeling,
and Data Analysis....................................................................................... 371
Overview........................................................................................................ 371
Introduction................................................................................................... 371
Development.................................................................................................. 372
Climate Change Research....................................................................... 372
Climate Modeling.................................................................................... 374
The Modeling Challenge: A Brief History........................................... 374
Fundamentals of Climate Modeling..................................................... 376


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The Physics of Modeling......................................................................... 376
Simplifying the Climate System............................................................ 377

Modeling the Climate Response............................................................ 378
Types of Climate Models........................................................................ 380
Testing a Model: Modeling Trouble Spots............................................ 381
Confidence and Validation..................................................................... 383
Modeling Uncertainties and Challenges.............................................. 383
Solar Variability................................................................................... 383
Aerosols................................................................................................384
Clouds...................................................................................................384
Nature’s Inherent Unruly Tendencies.............................................. 386
Error Amplification.................................................................................. 387
Modeling Uncertainties and Drawbacks.............................................. 387
Other Unknowns..................................................................................... 389
Two Case Studies..................................................................................... 390
Case Study 1: Forest Inventory and Species Invasion.................... 391
Case Study 2: Monitoring Rangelands and Drought..................... 396
Conclusions....................................................................................................400
Discussion...................................................................................................... 401
References...................................................................................................... 401
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 402
14 The Clock Is Ticking: Changing for the Benefit of Future
Generations................................................................................................... 403
Overview........................................................................................................ 403
Introduction................................................................................................... 403
Development..................................................................................................404
A Look toward the Future......................................................................404
Winners and Losers................................................................................. 406
New Technologies.................................................................................... 409
The Final Choice....................................................................................... 412
Conclusions.................................................................................................... 412
Discussion...................................................................................................... 413

References...................................................................................................... 413
Suggested Reading....................................................................................... 414
Appendix.............................................................................................................. 415
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) Member Nations........................................................ 415
Glossary................................................................................................................ 421
Index��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 427


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Author
Julie Kerr Gines has been an earth scientist for more than 34 years, promoting a healthier and better-managed environment. She holds a PhD in
earth science with an emphasis in remote sensing satellite technology from
the University of Utah and has dealt with the hands-on applications of
resource and climate change management, focusing on the delicate balance
of the multifaceted issues involving the political, economic, and sociological components in both short- and long-term applications with real-world
ramifications. She has been involved specifically with projects such as forest management, classification and monitoring of desertification, rangeland
change detection and management, vegetation inventory and health assessment, and land-use change.
Dr. Gines approaches the subject with a background uniquely blended
with conservation and land-use management expertise with the U.S. Bureau
of Land Management, military applications with the U.S. Air Force, and university-based research. She has also had environmental experience serving
in the professional community as the president of the Intermountain Chapter
of the American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing and spent
years dedicated to the promotion of a healthier environment through participation with various environmental groups. The prolific author has published more than 23 books, many of which are focused on environmental
topics such as global warming, climate change management, conservation
of natural resources, green living, and the earth sciences.

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Introduction
After years of dedicated research, overwhelming scientific evidence, and
field observations, it is a well-known fact that climate change is an urgent
problem that needs attention from several sectors of society—including
scientific, technological, political, environmental, economic, governmental,
psychological, and sociological. Although it may be true that future technologies may discover a way to make an easier transition from a fossil fuelbased economy possible—one of the biggest factors in the perpetuation of
climate change—there is no time to adopt a wait and see attitude. Currently,
it remains one of society’s most pressing problems. Changes must be made
now, and that includes changes in personal perception and attitude and in
the way we do business and enact policy as a world community. The fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial knowledge base already exists to
enable and empower society to begin combating and correcting the problem
now. Each person worldwide has the capability to empower themselves to
help meet one of the biggest challenges humankind may ever face, and it
begins with personal education, appropriate mindset, economic incentive,
effective and intelligent leadership, focused priorities, and the collective
working toward a common goal.
It is fundamental to understand that climate change is in actuality a complex collection of issues that extends far beyond the scientific portion of the
picture. It not only encompasses the physical and chemical laws of nature
but also affects life forms and ecosystems, human lifestyles, cultural values, political systems, economic building blocks, health issues, and human
­values—in short, it affects fundamental components of all aspects of our
lives. Because of that, this book presents the most pertinent issues involving climate change that begin with the scientific basis and then applies that

knowledge to the sociological, political, and economic components of the climate change picture, so that you, the reader, can gain new insights into the
complex interrelationships that are involved and the decisions that must be
made in order to mitigate the climate change problems before it is too late
and too much damage has been done.
The book begins by providing an overview of the physical science aspects
of climate change, divided into three central categories: the climate system, greenhouse gases, and effects on ecosystems. It is imperative to have
a basic, working knowledge of these broad areas so that you can then connect the importance of them to the variability of economic scenarios, the
need for global political unification, the diverse sociological ramifications
associated with these areas, and what we can expect as a global community
if we do not act now to remedy the current situation. From there the book
looks next at the inception of climate change management and the role the
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Introduction

United Nations has played: guiding climate talks, conventions, agreements
such as the Kyoto Protocol, and scientific review and analysis. It looks at
where we have been and where we are headed, as well as what it will take
to succeed.
Next, this book explores the sociological connections to climate change
and what those ramifications are. It examines the effects of biodiversity, the
implications of environmental movements, the concept of climate justice, the
ramifications of climate change on society, the reasons for going green, and
other important social factors. It then analyzes human psychology and the
effect the media has—and can have—on society. It looks at subtle manipulation, truth in reporting, the distinction between journalistic balance and

accurate scientific representation, and the ways human perception can be
manipulated.
Following that, the book examines the role of international organizations,
renewable and energy efficiency partnerships, and other collaborative international endeavors. It also explores the progress that individual countries
are making, along with what nations are currently involved in working
to achieve sustainability. From there, the book then shifts gears and looks
closely at the political arena—first at the current political climate in the
United States, President Obama’s initiations, and the response of Congress.
Then it examines the international playing field and the political actions
and contributions of several key countries. Based on that knowledge, it then
examines the sociopolitical impacts of climate change, such as the evident
and the obscure connections to national security and terrorism that all
nations worldwide need to be aware of in order for peace and international
cooperation to remain paramount. It also focuses on the problem of inaction
and situations that could trigger wars. It defines and gives examples of the
nature of conflict and state fragility and how climate change can disrupt even
the smallest of countries and pit them against the largest. It then touches on
the concept of climate justice and equity: what it is, why it is important, and
why some people embrace it while others turn their backs to it.
Then we shift gears and take a good look at an entity that in and of itself
deserves a thorough evaluation: the U.S. military. The book focuses on how
climate change has affected militaries around the world and how it has
forced them to adjust in both peace- and war-time situations. It looks at the
new green technologies they have recently embraced, where they have succeeded, how the troops have reacted, how these changes have affected their
operations, and what their long-term goals really are. The answers may surprise you.
Next, the economic and socioeconomic implications of climate change are
analyzed and considered. A wide-ranging cadre of economic venues is examined, as well as the effects climate change is having, and will likely have, on
them. The book focuses on what to expect in both the short and long term,
both with and without conscious changes on our parts. Specific fields looked
at include the economic impacts of drought and desertification, what will

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xvii

happen to the fishing and forestry industries, changes in monsoon patterns
and what that means to millions of people, agriculture and food production,
impact on the recreation and tourism industries, impact on healthcare- and
labor-related industries, various transportation and energy considerations,
and the obstacles and challenges the world’s insurance companies are now
facing. Following that, it takes a brief look at one of the most well-known
economic analyses of climate change, the Stern Review, and also analyzes
how humankind can possibly meet the challenges of future climate impacts
guaranteed to be coming down the road.
From there, this book presents an analysis of the economics of mitigation
options and what can be done to correct the problem, such as the cap-andtrade scheme and what that really entails, the utility and difference between
project- and allowance-based markets, as well as the overall economics of
cap and trade. Next, it explores solutions to the problem by looking at mitigation options currently available: carbon capture and storage and the impressive results being met in geological formation sequestration, as well as ocean
sequestration. Chapter 12 concludes with an explanation of other adaptation
strategies.
The focus then turns to the role of climate research, modeling, and data
analysis and the exciting advances that are happening in that realm. It discusses the latest discoveries and techniques of mathematical and computer
modeling and the special challenges that scientists encounter when trying to
build a model of a physical system that is composed of multiple scales, resolutions, components, complexities, time scales, and reactive mechanisms. It
analyzes the various types of climate models currently used and outlines the
many factors that introduce uncertainty and doubt into the system to create
confusion. It also looks at two case studies being currently worked on by the

U.S. Bureau of Land Management as they try to come to a better understanding of the natural world and the effect of climate on it.
Finally, the book looks toward the future: who will ultimately win, who
will lose. It will give you a clear insight as to what every person must do to
help solve the problem and how technology may be able to help out. It will
help put in perspective the overall importance of the issue—economically,
politically, and socially—and encourage you to lead by example.


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1
The Earth’s Climate System

Overview
In order to understand the problem and then be able to manage it effectively,
it is imperative to have an understanding of the complex theory and science behind climate change. Although much of the existing literature refers
to the issue as global warming—the term used for the past several years—­
scientists are transitioning to the term climate change because of the multifaceted nature of the phenomenon. This book utilizes the current terminology.
As background, the term global warming tends to imply that the only consequence is that the earth’s atmosphere is slowly getting warmer, unfortunately causing many to minimize the significance of the issue. When the
media reports that scientists predict that the earth’s atmosphere is warming,
some people expect to hear that the temperature will get tens of degrees
warmer. Some may have visions of sitting in a hot, steamy sauna—a vision
that for those  who live in extremely cold climates, such as Siberia or the
Yukon, may be very welcome indeed! Therefore, when climatologists predict
a temperature rise of 1.1–6.4ºC, the public may be inclined to ask what the
urgency about the issue really is. After all, it’s just a few degrees, right?
Wrong.
Look at it this way: During the earth’s last ice age, the earth was only about
4–6ºC cooler than it is today. Although that may seem like an insignificant

temperature difference, it was enough to blanket huge areas of the earth in
thick layers of ice. It had such an enormous impact on ecosystems that it even
rendered some species extinct, such as the mammoth and mastodon.
Thus, although a few degrees may seem trivial, the earth’s climate is so
sensitive that those few degrees can make a significant difference. In addition, although some climate change is natural, scientists have now proven that
humans are causing the bulk of the recent changes and rises in temperature,
and although those few degrees may not seem like much, it is unfortunately
enough to serve as a tipping point—a big enough influence on the climate that,
once reached, it will set into motion permanent changes with global ramifications. When climate changes, it affects entire earth systems. Many components
of the earth’s physical system operate on a global scale, such as the hydrologic,
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Climate Management Issues

carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles. The earth’s various biogeochemical
cycles are always changing and represent the continual interactions between
the biosphere (life), lithosphere (land), hydrosphere (water), and atmosphere
(air). Various substances move endlessly throughout these four spheres. Of
the four spheres, the atmosphere transports elements the most rapidly, and
climate change will negatively affect these spheres if left unchecked.
This chapter is the first of three parts that lay the foundation needed to
understand how the climate system works as a whole and what climate change
is capable of and why. It looks at climate as a global system and the fact that
harmful environmental practices at one location can negatively affect other
locations. It then examines the effect that human impacts have on the earth’s

natural carbon cycle—commonly referred to as the human-enhanced carbon
cycle. From there, it focuses on global circulation patterns of the atmosphere
and oceans and their role in climate change, specifically the consequences
of the disruption of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, a major circulation pattern responsible for western Europe’s mild climate and possibly for abrupt
climate change. Finally, this chapter presents current research information
about the effects of sea-level rise and the consequences of a warming world.

Introduction
Climate change is one of today’s most urgent topics. Despite all the controversy and hype the entire climate change topic has generated, there now
exists an overwhelming body of scientific evidence that the problem is real,
that its effects are being felt right now on a global scale, that some geographic
areas are more vulnerable than others, and that it will take the concerted
effort of every person working toward the same goals to put a halt to the rise
in both temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gases. The fact is that even
if all necessary steps are taken right now to stop the increase in greenhouse
gases entering the earth’s atmosphere, the effects of climate change will still
be present for centuries to come. The complicated process has already been
set into irreversible motion. The critical key to understanding the effects of
climate change is to be knowledgeable about how to control and mitigate the
causes of climate change now in order to minimize future damage to the environment and the life living in it. An unhealthy environment affects all forms
of life on earth and through understanding first the causes and effects—the
science behind climate change—it will be possible to empower the world’s
population to solve the problem through political leadership, realistic sociological mindsets, and proper economic measures. The scientific consensus
is that people’s behavior is largely responsible for today’s climate change
problem. Another factor that makes this a volatile and controversial issue
is that it is not just confined to the realms of the scientific community, nor


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The Earth’s Climate System

3

does it have just one simple, predefined solution—it has multifaceted dimensions involving economic, sociological, political, psychological, and personal
issues, making this a topic affecting the future outcome of the life of every
person on earth now and in the future. To make the problem even more sensitive, it is projected that those who will suffer the worst effects are not even
those who have caused the bulk of the problem—the undeveloped nations
will take the brunt of what the developed nations have largely caused.
The scientific community has many theories about climate change. The
topic is extremely challenging in nature because there are so many factors
involved in it, making it difficult to pinpoint its exact causes and solutions
across the board. The earth’s climate is extremely complicated, and clima­
tologists are conducting daily research in order to improve their understanding of all the interrelated components.
Each year, about 6.4 metric tons of carbon is released into the atmosphere.
Studies show that concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by
about one-third since 1900. During this same time period, experts say the
earth has warmed rapidly. Because of this, a connection has been made that
humans are contributing significantly to climate change. Even scientists who
are skeptical about the climate change issue recognize that there is much
more CO2 in the atmosphere than ever before.
Although it is certainly true that the atmosphere is warming up, that is
only one part of what is going on. As the earth’s atmosphere continues to
warm, it is setting off an avalanche of other mechanisms that will do even
greater harm to the earth’s natural ecosystems. Glaciers and ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and ocean circulation patterns are changing, which
then changes the traditional heat distributions around the globe. Seasons are
shifting, and storms are becoming more intense, leading to severe weather
events. Droughts are causing desertification, crops are dying, and disease
is spreading. Some ecosystems are shifting where they still can; others are
beginning to fail. In short, humans are changing the earth’s climate—and

not for the better.

Development
In order to understand climate change management issues, it is necessary
to have a good understanding and working knowledge of the basic scientific
theory behind climate change: how the earth’s atmosphere works, how it
interacts with the earth’s surface, what causes climate change, how it affects
the various earth systems, and why it is an issue that must be addressed
today. In practical land management, principally overseen by the world’s
government agencies and appropriated entities, much of the knowledge
relied on in order to manage the land and make appropriate policy decisions


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Climate Management Issues

to properly provide for present and future management capabilities and
expertise is current research, largely provided by the world’s principal
research institutions—chiefly governmental, academic, and private, such
as National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), numerous universities worldwide, and esteemed organizations such as the Pew Center on
Global Climate Change, respectively. Therefore, the beginning chapters of
this book, while merely touching on some of the most prominent key issues,
provide an overview of the recent scientific research and work that has been
done on the climate change issue, laying the basic groundwork to promote
an understanding of the complex, interwoven issues and key concepts of
the climate change problem, thereby creating a firm foundation for why this
issue is critical to both society and the environment’s future, as well as why

politics, sociology, and economics play such a critical role in its management.
Consulting the references listed at the conclusions of each chapter will also
provide a greater depth of detail in each subissue presented.
This research has been crucial toward enabling managers to gain an understanding of all the individual facets of the problem in order to be able to put
proper and effective policy in place to provide efficient land-stewardship
practices for both the present and the future (which will be presented and
discussed in detail in subsequent chapters). It is crucial that you, the reader,
understand the scientific concepts behind the complex climate change issue
in order to gain an appreciation for the immense challenge that land managers face today in planning for future climate change situations based on
a plethora of interactive scenarios that each have the ability to change the
long-term outcome, making effective management one of the most challenging tasks of this century—a task that will affect many future generations.
These first three chapters provide a brief but comprehensive introduction
to ­climate change science and present the key scientific concepts behind it.
Only through understanding the depth of the scientific principles and processes involved is it possible to grasp the interwoven complexity of the issue
and gain an appreciation for why informed climate management practices
are critical for the future of both humanity and the environment when dealing with sociological, political, and economic issues.
What Is Climate Change?
Climate change is a term used to refer to the increase of the earth’s average surface temperature, largely caused by a buildup of greenhouse gases
in the earth’s atmosphere, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels and
the destruction of the world’s rain forests. The term was coined by Svante
Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist and Nobel Laureate, in 1913. The term is often
used to convey the concept that there is actually more going on than just rising temperatures. There is a general misunderstanding that the issue involves
just the atmosphere and temperature rising a few degrees; hence the name
change from global warming to climate change in order to more accurately


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The Earth’s Climate System

5

convey the multifaceted nature of the phenomenon. Climate change encompasses long-term changes in climate, which include temperature, precipitation amounts, and types of precipitation, humidity, and other factors.
Today, climate change has become one of the most controversial issues
in the public eye, appearing frequently in print and televised news reports,
documentaries, scientific and political debates, and other venues and economic issues, and the messages can be contradictory and confusing. One
goal of this book is to set the record straight by presenting various points of
view and clarifying them with the facts. Climate change also receives a lot
of attention because it is more than just a scientific issue—it also affects economics, sociology, and people’s personal lifestyles and standards of living. It
is one of the hottest current political issues, not only in the United States but
worldwide. Political positions on climate change have become major platforms and debating issues as public demands toward a solution have intensified in recent years.
More than 2,500 of the world’s most renowned climatologists, represented
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), support the concept of climate change and agree that there is absolutely no scientific doubt
that the atmosphere is warming. They also believe that human activities—
especially burning fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal), deforestation, and environmentally unfriendly farming practices—are playing significant roles in the
problem. The IPCC consolidates their most recent scientific findings every
5–7 years into a single report, which is then presented to the world’s political leaders. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United
Nations Environment Programme established the IPCC in 1988 to specifically address the issue of climate change. As a result of their comprehensive
analysis, the IPCC determined that this steady warming has had a significant impact on at least 420 animal and plant species in addition to natural
processes. Furthermore, this has not just occurred in one geographical location but worldwide.
Unfortunately, the science of climate change does not come with a crystal ball. Scientists do not know exactly what will happen, such as what the
specific impacts to specific areas will be, nor can they say with certainty
when or where the impacts will hit the hardest, making it all the more difficult for land-resource managers, planners, politicians, and economists to
do the best job possible in long-range planning. However, experts are certain that the effects will be serious and globally far-reaching. According to
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/NASA/
Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Partnership, potential
impacts include increased human mortality, extinction of plants and animal
species, increased severe weather, drought, and dangerous rises in sea levels.
Although climatologists still argue about how quickly the earth is warming
and how much it will ultimately warm, they do agree that climate change

is currently happening and that the earth will continue to keep warming if
something is not done soon to stop it.


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Climate Management Issues

DID YOU KNOW?

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There are several interesting facts concerning climate change. For instance, did you know
that:
• According to the WMO, this past decade has been the warmest on record. In addition, the top 11 warmest years ever recorded have all occurred in the last 13 years
(WMO, 2009).
• Scientists attribute the atmosphere’s rapid warming principally to human activities,
mainly the burning of fossil fuels.
• Every year the CO2 concentration level in the atmosphere steadily climbs higher, and
the earth will reach a “tipping point” of no return if humans do not reverse the trend.
In order to avoid a rise of 6ºC by the end of this century, which is the critical level identified by climate change research scientists, total global emissions need to have peaked
by 2015 and reduced by at least 80 percent by 2050 to prevent nonreversible damage.
• Although every person plays a role in the problem and has a responsibility for its solution, the lion’s share of the problem can be attributed to twenty-three of the world’s
most wealthy nations, which constitute only 14 percent of the world’s population.
These “developed” countries are guilty of producing 60 percent of the world’s carbon
emissions since 1850 when industrialization became an integral part of their lifestyles.
Even though many of these nations pledged to reduce CO2 below 1990 levels by
2012 through the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, their emissions have risen instead.
• Up until just recently, the United States emitted the highest levels of greenhouse
gases. China is now the largest emitter of CO2, surpassing the United States in 2007

by 8 percent. As a comparison, according to the CIA World Factbook, a U.S. citizen
emits seven times as much in a year as an Ethiopian does in a lifetime.
• Climate change is a problem that affects every nation sociologically, politically, and
economically. The World Health Organization estimates that climate change causes
150,000 deaths per year worldwide from malaria, malnutrition, diarrhea, and
flooding. These deaths affect the economic and political stability and structure of a
country, weakening its resources and ability to cope with the challenges of climate
change, further exacerbating the problem (Kumaresan and Sathiakumar, 2010).
• Climate change is linked to the natural disasters such as hurricanes, flooding, and
drought that are increasing in frequency and severity. Between 1996 and 2005,
disasters caused $667 billion in direct losses to people worldwide. According to a
World Bank Independent Evaluation Group, losses were twenty times greater in
developing countries (Parker, 2007).
• In 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, causing 1,836 deaths.
• In October 2005, Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala, Mexico, El Salvador, Nicaragua,
and Costa Rica, causing more than 1,500 deaths.
• According to the Anuradha Mittal, founder of the international policy think tank,
The Oakland Institute, rising world food prices caused in part by climate change
and expanded biofuel production led to food riots and protests in more than fifty
countries between January 2007 and July 2008 (Mittal, 2009).
• The thawing of the Arctic permafrost is affecting the traditional way of life of its
indigenous people, making hunting and traveling difficult and dangerous
• The low-lying island of Tuvalu in the Pacific has already evacuated three thousand
of its inhabitants to New Zealand
• By 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa and 77 million in South America will be
under increased water stress because supplies will no longer meet demand
• By 2025, tens of millions more will go hungry because of low crop yields and rising
global food prices.
• A rise in sea level of just 1 meter would displace ten million people in Vietnam and
eight to ten million in Egypt

• The number of people in Africa at risk of coastal flooding will rise from one million
in 1990 to seventy million by 2080 according to the United Nations Fact Sheet on
Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2006).