(Tiểu luận) a study of the instant coffee industry invietnam and related factors that haveaffected the supply and demand of thiscommodity

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NATI ONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY
ENGLISH BACHELOR OF DIGITAL BUSINESS

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FINAL PROJECT
MICROECONOMICS
TOPIC
A STUDY OF THE INSTANT COFFEE INDUSTRY IN
VIETNAM AND RELATED FACTORS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF THIS
COMMODITY.
Group: 5
Class : EBDB 4
Course: 64
Amphitheater: A2-707


Hanoi – 06/2023

MEMBER LIST
NO
1
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FULL NAME

Ngụy Thị Vân Anh
Nguyễn Hoàng Bảo Châu
Hoàng Quỳnh Chi
Nguyễn Đỗ Linh Chi
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Ngân
Cao Tiến Phúc

STUDENT CODE
11220308
11220906
11220967
11220992
11224582
11225128

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Contents
INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................3
ANALYZE CHARACTERISTICS........................................................................4
Characteristic 1: Number of brand and market share.............................................4
Characteristic 2: Product nature.............................................................................5
Characteristic 3: Barriers to entry..........................................................................6
Characteristic 4: Non-price competition................................................................7
DEMAND AND SUPPLY CURVE OF VIETNAM INSTANT COFFEE........10
1. Main factors affecting the supply of the Vietnam dairy...........................10
Raw materials price....................................................................................10

b.

Technological development........................................................................11

c.

Natural conditions.......................................................................................11

d.

Government policies...................................................................................12

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a.

2. Main factors affecting the demand of the Vietnam instant coffee industry
15
a. Product price....................................................................................................15
b. Consumers income..........................................................................................15
c. Business image................................................................................................17
CONCLUSION......................................................................................................19
REFERENCES......................................................................................................20

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INTRODUCTION
The instant coffee industry in Vietnam has experienced significant growth and
transformation in recent years, making it an intriguing subject for study. Vietnam,

renowned for its robust coffee culture and favorable climatic conditions, has
emerged as a prominent player in the global coffee market. In this study, we will
delve into the dynamics of the instant coffee industry in Vietnam, analyzing the
factors that have influenced the supply and demand of this commodity.
To gain a comprehensive understanding of the industry, we will begin by
examining the market structure of the instant coffee industry in Vietnam.
Specifically, we will explore whether the industry aligns closer to a state of pure
competition or a monopolistic structure. By evaluating the competitive landscape,
we can better comprehend the dynamics that shape the supply and demand of
instant coffee in Vietnam.

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Additionally, we will investigate the key factors that have impacted the supply
and demand of instant coffee in Vietnam over the past years. These factors may
encompass a wide range of economic, social, and environmental aspects that have
had a significant influence on the industry. By identifying and analyzing these
factors, we aim to unravel the intricate relationship between supply and demand
and shed light on the fluctuations and patterns observed within the instant coffee
market in Vietnam.
Through this study, we hope to provide valuable insights into the instant
coffee industry in Vietnam, elucidating the underlying factors that have shaped its
supply and demand dynamics. By understanding the complexities of this
commodity and its market, stakeholders, including coffee producers, traders, and
policymakers, can make informed decisions and devise effective strategies to
navigate the industry's challenges and capitalize on its opportunities.

3

ANALYZE CHARACTERISTICS
Characteristic 1: Number of brand and market share
Coffee holds a significant position among Vietnam's agricultural products,
contributing to the country's GDP development in recent years. Nowadays, people
tend to use more instant coffee because of its convenience. Therefore, the instant
coffee market in Vietnam is experiencing significant growth and popularity in
recent times. Vietnamese consumers have considered instant coffee as a convenient
and accessible option for their caffeine fix. As a result, the instant coffee market in
Vietnam is developing, presenting numerous opportunities for both established and
new players to expand their presence and capture the growing consumer base.

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Vietnam is considered to be the second largest producing coffee in the world
because Vietnam has a large coffee growing area and demand of consumers is
more and more increased (Chi Nam 2018). Although this leads to many new
brands wanting to enter the Vietnam coffee market, this industry recently has to
face many challenges such as climate change, irrigation water source, large
investment requirements and competition from other high-value crops (Chi Nam
2018). Currently, the Vietnamese instant coffee market accounts for 1/3 of the total
domestic coffee consumption. Moreover, in 2022, Vinacafe is the leading instant
coffee company in Vietnam, with a market share of 45%. Trung Nguyen is the
second-largest company, with a market share of 25%. Nescafe is the third-largest
company, with a market share of 15%. The remaining 15% of the market is shared
by smaller companies. This shows that the coffee market has been shaped very
well, it is difficult to have opportunities for new players. This means that it restricts
new players entering the market.

Instant coffee market share in Vietnam (Source: Statista)
4

Vinacafe is a state-owned company that has been in operation since 1973. It
is the largest coffee producer in Vietnam, and it also exports coffee to over 60
countries. Trung Nguyen is a privately owned company that was founded in 1996.
It is the second-largest coffee producer in Vietnam, and it is also known for its
chain of coffee shops. Nescafe is a subsidiary of Nestle, the world's largest food
and beverage company. It has been operating in Vietnam since 1993, and it is the
leading foreign coffee brand in the country.
Characteristic 2: Product nature
Instant coffee products are popular with a benefit to boost energy levels and
give different experiences in drinking coffee. In these products, coffee beans are
the main ingredients. However, each firm has their own different combination
between coffee beans and other ingredients such as milk, sugar, milk powder, e.g
and other factors such as quality and technology to make different tastes. With
their own combinations, firms continue developing from origin products to make
their products become more diverse on the market and different from their rivals.
In conclusion, though instant coffee products are similar, they have some slight
differences, especially differences in taste, technology, and benefits of products.
Example 1:

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If Trung Nguyen is popular with G7 3 in 1, Vinacafe with Vinacafe original
Buon Me Thuot Instant 3 in 1. Both products used coffee beans cultivated in Buon
Ma Thuot, creamer and sugar. However, G7 3 in 1 using European technology with
Trung Nguyen’s superior expertise (Source: Trung Nguyen Coffee). Besides, G7
wants to bring an exotically flavored taste experience so this product from Trung
Nguyen has a bitter flavor of traditional coffee and that also gives customers more
reasons to make a choice between two products.

(G7 3 in 1)

(Vinacafe original Buon Me Thuot 3 in 1)

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Example 2:
Trung Nguyen Coffee and Néscafe always diversify their products by
producing or developing more products based on the origin products to meet the
market demand and increase their proportion of the market share.

(Coffee products of Néscafe)

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(Coffee products of Trung Nguyen)
Characteristic 3: Barriers to entry
The instant coffee industry in Vietnam is a challenging market for new
entrants, as they face several barriers to entry that give an advantage to the existing
players. Some of these barriers are:

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 The high competition from both local and international brands, such as
Trung Nguyen, Vinacafe, Nescafe, and Starbucks, which have a strong
presence and reputation in the market.
 The low domestic demand for instant coffee compared to traditional coffee,
which is preferred by many Vietnamese consumers for its taste and aroma.
According to a survey, only 24% of urban consumers and 16% of rural
consumers used instant coffee in 2021.
 The high production costs and taxes for instant coffee, which make it less
profitable than exporting raw coffee beans. Vietnam is the second-largest
coffee producer in the world, with a volume of 29 million 60 kg bags in

2020, but most of its coffee exports are unprocessed or semi-processed.
Besides, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of
Vietnam, there were over 660 coffee processing factories in the country as of
2020, indicating a highly competitive landscape (Vietnam Briefing, 2021)
 The strict regulations and standards for food safety and quality, which
require instant coffee producers to comply with various certifications and
inspections. Vietnam has adopted the ASEAN Harmonized Tariff
Nomenclature (AHTN) and the ASEAN Common Effective Preferential
Tariff (CEPT) scheme, which impose tariffs and non-tariff barriers on
imported and exported goods.

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 Access to high-quality coffee beans can be a challenge for new entrants, as
established brands often have established relationships with coffee farmers
and suppliers. These barriers, coupled with intense competition and capital
requirements, create obstacles for new companies seeking to enter the
instant coffee market in Vietnam.
Characteristic 4: Non-price competition
Besides sale strategies with competitive prices, large enterprises also spend a
considerable amount of money on advertising activities to increase brand
awareness, product promotion, thereby increasing their sales.

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(Trung Nguyen’s G7 advertising)

(Nestle’s Nescafe advertising)

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(Vinacafe advertising)
In conclusion, with the factor analyzed above, we can determine that the
Vietnamese instant coffee market has almost sufficient characteristics that are close
to
the
monopoly
market,
especially
OLIGOPOLY.
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→ Oligopoly curve diagram:

For example:
Price
(2019)

Price
(2020)

Néstcafe

$5

$5.50

Trung
Nguyen

$4

Vinacafe

$3

Price
(2021)

Price
(2022)

Supply

Demand

$6

$6.50

High

High

$4.25

$4.50

$4.75

Medium Medium

$3.10

$3.20

$3.30

Low

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Brand

Low

Based on the provided data, it is evident that the instant coffee industry can
be categorized as an oligopoly. An oligopoly refers to a market structure where a
small number of dominant firms control the industry. In this case, the data
showcases three major brands in the instant coffee market: Nestlé, Trung Nguyen,
and Vinacafe. These brands exhibit a considerable level of control and influence
over the market due to their pricing behavior. The data indicates that all three
brands consistently increased their prices over the years, demonstrating a
synchronized pattern of price adjustments. This suggests a high level of
interdependence and mutual awareness among these firms, as they strategically
respond to each other's pricing actions. Additionally, the data also reveals the
presence of a balanced supply and demand for each brand, indicating a concerted
effort to maintain market equilibrium. The fact that all three brands have varying
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levels of supply and demand further highlights their ability to control market
dynamics. Consequently, based on the pricing behavior, interdependence, and
control demonstrated by Nestlé, Trung Nguyen, and Vinacafe, it can be concluded
that the instant coffee industry in question operates as an oligopoly.

DEMAND AND SUPPLY CURVE OF VIETNAM
INSTANT COFFEE
1. Main factors affecting the supply of the Vietnam dairy
a. Raw materials price
The primary raw material to produce instant coffee is Robusta coffee beans.
However, the price of coffee beans in Vietnam has reached a record high in 2023.
Domestic coffee price rose by 25% compared to Q4 in 2022 and by 17% compared
to the same quarter in 2022, reaching 48.600 - 49.000 VND/kg. This upsurge is the
first time in history the price of Vietnamese coffee has surpassed this mark and
sometimes has reached VND 64,000/kg.

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According to the US Department of Agriculture's forecast, Vietnam's coffee
production in the 2022/2023 crop year will decrease by 6% to 29.75 million bags.
According to Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam's coffee
production in the 2022/2023 crop year is predicted to drop by 10 - 15% compared
to the previous crop year and hit 1,47 million tonnes. Therefore, when Vietnam's
coffee production declines, it will affect the supply, demand, and international
coffee prices. This substantial rise in price has a great influence on the output of
coffee in Vietnam.
Example: Looking at the chart, we can see that at a price of $1,800 per ton,
the supply of instant coffee in Vietnam was 100,000 tons in 2022. However, at the

same price in 2023, the supply has been cut to 80,000 tons due to high raw
materials prices (Robusta coffee beans) (Source: SSI Research, 2023)
P ($)

Qs
(2022)
(2023)

1800

80,000

100,000

Q (tons)

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Therefore, the supply of Robusta beans would decrease during this period.
Since Robusta beans is the main raw material to produce instant, the supply of
instant coffee in Vietnam, in turn, also declined.
b. Technological development
The application and combination of science and technology are extremely
essential in the coffee industry. Not only does it increase work quality and
efficiency, but it also ensures sustainable development. In addition, applying
science and technology is necessary because global farmers and producers always
face many difficulties in controlling prices and crops heavily affected by climate
change. Some of the prominent technological application in coffee production
includes: Netafim drip irrigation method combines water fertilization with coffee

plant fertilization; WeGAP; Nitrogen-fixing crops.
Combating the risk of groundwater depletion and reducing energy outputs helps
to produce coffee at low costs. Improved efficiency within smallholder farms
means less waste as well. This would positively affect the supply of instant coffee
in Vietnam.

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In Vietnam, there are 7 instant coffee processing factories with a capacity of 52
tons/year. There are a few enterprises that have invested in the deep processing
industry such as Vinacafe, Trung Nguyen, and Nescafe. Brands producing roasted
and ground coffee products such as Dac Ha (Kon Tum), Thu Ha (Gia Lai),
Vinacafe, Trung Nguyen.
Take a closer look at the leading instant coffee enterprise - Trung Nguyen
which now has the world's leading technology. Trung Nguyen Coffee Group has
ordered the world's leading companies from Japan, Germany such as FAE,
NEUHAU NEOTEC designs its own technology. Trung Nguyen coffee processing
factory is invested with a total investment capital of more than 40 million USD,
built on an area of 27,000m2. Trung Nguyen's new factory will have a German
green coffee steaming and vacuum drying line to help increase the quality and
value of Vietnamese Robusta coffee before being processed domestically or
exported, with the largest capacity in Asia of 20,000 tons/year. Along with a closed
roasting-grinding-packing line by German technology, Trung Nguyen has
pioneered in investing in an instant coffee production line with modern cold-drying
technology - this is the most advanced technology in the world. With such dramatic
development in technology, Trung Nguyen is able to stack up their instant coffee
production while delivering 100% coffee’s pure flavor, round and fresh.
c. Natural conditions
In Vietnam, the largest coffee-growing regions are concentrated in the Central
Highlands’ provinces. However, due to the impact of climate change, the weather

in the Central Highlands’ provinces is complicated and irregular; thus, Vietnamese
coffee farmers are subjected to increasing uncertainties: longer droughts, more
11


frequent floods, and severe outbreaks of pests and diseases that result in reduced
productivity. In addition, there has been a scarcity in water sources for coffee
farming due to climate change.
More specifically, Dak Lak is facing a shortage of water to irrigate crops during
the dry season from March to June. According to the Dak Lak Irrigation SubDepartment, the amount of surface water in rivers, streams and in 848 irrigation
works began to run out. Major streams in the area such as Ea H'leo, Cu M'gar,
Krong Buk, Krong Nang, Krong Ana, Cu Kuin, Krong Pac, Buon Don and Buon
Ho town... has run out of water since the beginning of March 2023.
In the 2021/22 production period, Vietnam produced 30.48 million 60-kilogram
bags of Robusta coffee. The volume of Robusta produced in Vietnam had been
increasing steadily year on year from 2016 to 2020. However, it was slightly lower
for 2020/21, at 28.05 tones due to unfavorable weather and reduced coffeegrowing area by some farmers.

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Total Robusta coffee production volume in Vietnam from 2014 to 2021 with
(in million bags) (Source: Statista 2022)
There are concerns that this year, the complicated climate change and heavy
processing activities during harvest time will be more difficult, affecting coffee
output and quality. Coffee production decreased by 10% compared to last year to
about 1.7 million tons,” according to Vicofa’s representative.
d. Government policies
Vietnam’s officials have implemented long-term industrial reforms. In 2014, the
government unveiled a plan for sustainable coffee development through 2020 and a
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Vision for 2030. Vietnam’s policy of coffee production has shifted to a new era
with two objectives: to maintain its position as the world’s second-largest producer
and exporter of green coffee beans and to double the added value by increasing
productivity, quality, and value addition. One positive sign is the USD 7.5
million subsidy from the Vietnamese government in November 2017 (International
Comunicaffe, 2018).
In terms of production support policies, the government has introduced many
policies to support coffee production, specifically coffee replanting activities such
as: the process of re-cultivating coffee under Decision No. Decision No. 273/QDTT-CCN dated 3/7/2013, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has
approved the economic and technical norms for replanting with coffee (Decision
340/QD-BNN-TT dated February 23, 2013). 2013), the State Bank has reserved a
credit package of VND 12,000 billion to support the 5 provinces of the Central
Highlands to serve the coffee replanting program

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Regarding trade policy, the government has imposed certain support policies
such as: support 3 billion/project for processing projects to build transport
infrastructure, electricity, water, factories, waste treatment, purchase equipment;
Support loans to buy machinery and equipment to reduce post-harvest losses up to
100% of value, 100% and 50% interest rate for the first 2 years 3rd year
respectively; Eliminate 5% VAT on some items including coffee; Purchasing
system management; Improve preliminary processing technology; Building a
modern coffee consumption system (coffee trading floor), developing the domestic
market. The industry has also benefited from fiscal incentives, ranging from value
added tax refunds on coffee exports to tax exemptions tied to agricultural land use.
The state will fund up to half the cost of advertising and promoting Vietnamese
export commodities including coffee (Tran 2014). Also, the government has kept
irrigation water free. Enterprise that invest in scientific research and technologies

to serve production and business in agriculture will receive state support in the
form of low-interest loans.
Example: In 2021 at the price of 10,000 VND (including tax), Néstcafe only
produces 1,000 kg, but from Q2 / 2022 after being proposed by the Ministry of
Finance to lower the tax rate from 5% down 2% increased its coffee production to
1,200 kg (Source: Nestle, 2022).

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P (vnd)

Q (kg)

In addition, implementing the commitment of the Prime Minister at the United
Nations Summit on Climate Change (COP 26) and the orientation of the Ministry
of Agriculture and Rural Development on green growth and sustainable
development. Currently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development as
well as localities have issued technical procedures on cultivation, re-cultivation,
and processing, and at the same time guided localities to apply according to
certification standards.

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With those efforts, in 2022, Vietnam exported over 1.77 million tons of coffee,
bringing in a turnover of over $4.05 billion, the highest in recent years. In export
coffee output, Robusta still accounts for the highest proportion with over 1.5
million tons, turnover of over 3 billion USD; and processed coffee reached over 91
thousand tons, with a turnover of over 572 USD. Instant coffee was the most
popular type of coffee among a variety of markets. Therefore, the production of

instant coffee also reaped the benefits of these policies.

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023
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Volume of coffee exports from Vietnam from 2019 to 2022 with a forecast to
2023(in million 60-kilogram bags) (Source: Statista, 2022)
Last month, Wilson Li Wuqiang, a representative of Trung Nguyen Coffee
Group in Shanghai, said that Trung Nguyen coffee is a familiar brand there. At
first, Trung Nguyen mainly sold products like 3-in-1 instant coffee through border
channels. The move aimed to capitalize on China’s coffee market with an annual
growth rate of 40-50 per cent.
In conclusion, the Vietnamese government’s policies have brought certain
advantages to the coffee industry which encouraged the production, productivity,
expansions of firms and a sustainable market. As a result, instant coffee would be
positively affected.
2. Main factors affecting the demand of the Vietnam instant coffee
industry
a. Product price
The price of the product will be mainly determined by the demanded quantity
of consumers. When the cost of the products increases, the demanded quantity

decreases and vice versa.

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Price of 3 most popular types of instant coffee in Vietnam market in 2021
and 2022 (Source: Bach hoa XANH, 2022)
The increase in product price can lead to a drop in the consumption of
goods. As a result, it leads to a decrease in instant coffee industry's sales.
For instance, the financial report for the fourth quarter of 2022 of VinaCafé
Bien Hoa Joint Stock Company (stock code: VCF - HoSE exchange) shows that
the company's net revenue in Q4/2022 reached approximately 709 billion VND, a
significant decrease of 30% compared to the same period in 2021. This resulted in
a 50% decline in gross profit, down to 133 billion VND in the corresponding
period. According to the explanation provided by VinaCafé Bien Hoa, the sharp
decline in profit was mainly attributed to a 30% decrease in net revenue from the
Cereal and Instant Coffee segments. (Source: Tap chi Cong Thuong, 2023)
The demand for instant coffee in the Vietnamese market is greatly
influenced by the product's pricing. Consumers' purchasing decisions and
willingness to purchase a certain product are directly influenced by price. A major
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benefit of instant coffee is its reasonable price. Vietnam is a price-sensitive market,
and customers frequently take price into account when choosing which coffee to
buy. Instant coffee is a desirable alternative for consumers on a tight budget
because of its relatively cheaper cost compared to other coffee options. Instant
coffee is available to a wider spectrum of consumers, including those with lower
means, due to its low cost. If the price of instant coffee rises, customers will be
more likely to look for substitute products.
b. Consumers income
The regulations addressing COVID 19 caused a significant downturn in the

Vietnamese economy starting in 2020. Widespread unemployment and a lack of
income stability were caused by the slowdown in economic activity and a number
of enterprises closing. This directly affected people's desire to purchase instant
coffee. To balance the expense of other necessary things, they had to reduce the
amount of money spent on this item.

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The expenditure of Vietnamese citizens divided by urban and rural areas
from 2012 to 2022 (Source: General Statistics Office, 2022)
The economic decrease in 2021 due to the war between Russia and Ukraine
also had several potential effects on Vietnamese income. It's important to note that
the impact on Vietnamese income would depend on various factors, including the
extent of economic ties between Vietnam and the countries involved in the conflict,
as well as the specific industries and sectors affected.
For instance, Vietnam's exports and imports may decline if the war interrupts
international trade flows or fuels unrest in the area. This could have an impact on
industries that depend on foreign commerce, potentially resulting in lower earnings
for employees and companies operating in those areas. And Vietnamese
individuals' spending on different goods and services, including instant coffee, is
16


likely to decrease if their income declines. This is explained by the concept of
income elasticity of demand and the income effect.
According to the income effect (Source: Luat Minh Khue, 2023), as income
declines, people have less money on hand to spend on non-essentials like instant
coffee. Lower income levels frequently cause spending priorities to change,
placing more value on necessities and basic needs. Due to its status as a luxury
good, instant coffee may be viewed as less essential during hard times.

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c. Business image

Instant coffee brand consumers think of first when being asked
(Source: Vinaresearch, 2021)
The demand for instant coffee brands' products in the Vietnamese market is
significantly influenced by their corporate image. There are a number of reasons
why consumer behavior and purchasing decisions are significantly influenced by
business image.

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Firstly, a good brand reputation is created and maintained by having a
positive business image. Like anyplace else, consumers in Vietnam tend to trust
and favor brands that have a good reputation for providing high-quality goods,
consistent flavor, and dependable customer service. Increased demand for instant
coffee is more likely to result from a reputable brand's ability to draw in and keep
consumers.

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(Source: Vinaresearch, 2021)
Business image plays a role in establishing an emotional connection with
consumers. Brands can build a devoted following if they can project a favorable
and relatable image. A brand's products are more likely to be repurchased by
customers who identify with it, which sustains the demand for instant coffee.

19


CONCLUSION
In conclusion, our study of the instant coffee industry in Vietnam has
determined that it falls within the oligopolistic market structure. This is
characterized by a small number of dominant firms, including major brands in
Vietnam's instant coffee market. These firms have a significant influence on
pricing strategies and product differentiation.
Furthermore, we have identified several key factors that have a substantial
impact on the supply and demand of instant coffee in Vietnam. These factors
include changing consumer preferences, urbanization, technological
advancements, marketing efforts, and environmental conditions. Understanding
these factors is crucial for both industry stakeholders and economic learners to
navigate and comprehend the complexities of the instant coffee market in Vietnam.
By conducting this final project, we have acquired a comprehensive
understanding of Vietnam's instant coffee industry. The knowledge gained can be
applied to real-life scenarios, enabling us to make informed decisions and
contribute to the industry's growth and sustainability. Additionally, this study
provides up-to-date insights for economic learners seeking to enhance their
understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of an oligopolistic market.

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Overall, our research has shed light on the oligopolistic nature of the instant
coffee industry in Vietnam and highlighted the factors that shape its supply and
demand. It is our hope that this study will serve as a valuable resource for industry
participants, policymakers, and learners alike, facilitating informed decisionmaking and fostering a deeper understanding of Vietnam's instant coffee market.

20


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6. Luật Minh Khuê. (n.d.). Hiệu ứng thu nhập là gì? Retrieved from
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