Technology and the Economy of the Future_8 pptx

THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 234

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
Trouble in China
IfconsumerspendingintheU.S.andtherestofthe de-
veloped world remains depressed, China may ultimately
find itdifficultto sustain thegrowthit needsto keep its
workersemployed.GiantretailersintheUnitedStateswill
likelycontinuetoexertextremepressureonChineseman-
ufacturers to produce ever cheaper, better and more so-
phisticated products. These businesses may have little
choicebuttoturnincreasinglytoautomationasawayto
improveefficiencyandtrimcosts.Inasocietythatoffers
littleinthewayofasafetynet,thesavingrateamongChi-
neseworkersmightremainveryhigh,orperhapsevenin-
crease, in spite of the government’s efforts to somehow
spur consumer spending. All this may lead to increased
incidentsofcivilunrestandinstability.

Continuing Instability in the Financial Markets
Aseveryoneknows,thecurrentcrisisbeganwiththesub-
primemeltdown.Acasecancertainlybemadethatstag-
natingwagesplayedaroleinthecauseofthatmeltdown.
Obviously,lowwagesmadeitdifficultforthesepeopleto
repaytheirloans.
Beyondthat,Ithink itisalsotruethat,to some de-
gree,themotivationbehindsubprimeloanprogramswas
theideaofthe“ownership society.” Basically, inlightof
increasingevidencethatwagespaidtoaveragepeopleno
longerofferalikelypathtosuccess,weturnedinsteadto
thepromiseofrealestatespeculationandtriedtoextendit

toasmanypeopleaspossible.
Appendix / Final Thoughts / 235

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
Itdidn’tturnoutwell,andthelessonisthatvirtually
allassetvaluesinoureconomyarebasedontheassump-
tionthatwearegoingtocontinuehavingavibrantmass
marketeconomysupportedbyrobustconsumerspending.
Ifthatbasicassumptionisthreatened,weareverylikelyto
see increased risk, volatility and, ultimately,deflating val-
ues. The “ownership society” idea just isn’t workable—
consumersneedincomes(andconfidenceinthecontinuity
of those incomes) to support the sustained discretionary
spending that powers the economy. Remember: Every-
thingthatisproducedbytheeconomyis ultimatelycon-
sumedbyindividualhumanbeings.
*


Ugly and irrational political battles
IftrendssimilartotheonesI’velistedabovedodevelop,
andifthereisnocoherentunderstandingandreasonable
consensus regarding what is occurring, a dark scenario
may develop. Political battles will become even more
heated,partisanandirrational.Manypoliticiansmayactin
evenmorepurelyself-interestedwaysastheycometoge-
nuinelyfearthespecteroftheirownunemployment.
Conservatives will likely cling to the idea that taxes
should be cut on business even as it becomes clear that
such cuts will result in little or no job creation. Liberals



*
 GDP is equaltoPersonalConsumer Spending + Business Invest-
ment (which occurs in anticipation of future consumer spending) +
NetExports(consumer spendinginothercountries) +Government
Spending(moneythatthegovernment spendstoprovideservicesto
individual people). It all comes down to individual people buying
stuff.
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 236

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
may callfor increased job training evenastheprospects
formoreeducatedworkersarediminishing.Theymayalso
throw their weight behind organized labor, and this will
leadtoacontinuingbalkanizationoftheworkforceintoa
protectedeliteversusafarlargernumberofhighlyvulner-
ableworkers.
Appendix / Final Thoughts / 237

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
Outsmarting Marx
Thecentralthesisofthisbookisthat,astechnologyacce-
lerates, machine automationmay ultimately penetrate the
economy to theextent thatwages no longer provide the
bulkofconsumerswithadequatediscretionaryincomeand
confidenceinthefuture.Ifthisissueisnotaddressed,the
resultwillbeadownwardeconomicspiral.
Itmustbeacknowledgedthatthisideaisquitesimilar
tothepredictionsthatweremadebyKarlMarxinthemid

tolate1800s.Marxpredictedthatcapitalismwouldsuffer
from a relentless “accumulation of capital,” resulting in
massive unemployment and wages that would be driven
downbelowsubsistencelevel.Thisinturnwouldresultin
diminishedconsumerdemand,fallingprofitsandultimate-
lyeconomiccrisisorevencollapse.
Iftheargumentsinthisbookprovecorrect,thenwe
may bein thesomewhatuncomfortablepositionofcon-
ceding that Marx was, at least in some ways, perceptive
aboutthechallengesthecapitalistsystemwouldeventually
encounter.That,ofcourse,doesnotmeanthatweshould
consideradopting Marx’s solution. He advocated theab-
olition of private property, acentrallyplanned economy,
and perhaps most chillingly, the overthrow of govern-
mentsanda“dictatorshipoftheproletariat.”Inthewake
of the collapse of communism, these ideas have been
shownunequivocallytobe non-starters. They deserveto
besweptintothedustbinofhistory.
Theanswertotheproblemisclearlytoadaptoursys-
tem.Thefreemarketeconomyisnotanaturalphenome-
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 238

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
non.Itisreallyamachinethatwehavebuiltandrefined
overcenturies:itisanenginethatisfundamentallydriven
byincentives.Marxwantedtotakeasledgehammertothat
engine.Ourjobistotuneit,andevenre-engineeritifne-
cessary,sothatitwillcontinuetopowerprosperityindefi-
nitely.


Appendix / Final Thoughts / 239

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
The Technology Paradox
Mostpeoplewhowatchmoviesorhavereadsciencefic-
tionnovelsarefamiliarwiththepotentialparadoxesasso-
ciatedwithtimetravel. Forexample,ifyouwereableto
travelbackintimeandthendosomethingtopreventyour
parents from meeting before you were born, or perhaps
killayoungerversionofyourself,thenyouwouldpresum-
ablyceasetoexist.Whileweobviouslydon’tneedtowor-
ry too much about the practical problems of owning a
timemachine,Ithinkthatthereisasomewhatanalogous
issueassociatedwiththefutureoftechnology.
Manytechnologistswhothinkdeeplyaboutthefuture
believethatgenuinelyamazing thingsare possible.These
visions include things such as truly intelligent machines
and advanced nanotechnology that would allow us to
transform matter, generate abundant clean energy and
perhapscreatetangibleobjectswiththesameeasethatwe
nowcreategraphicsonacomputerscreen.Thereisalsoa
greatdealofspeculationaboutfantasticmedicaladvances
thatmightcuremajordiseasesandperhapsevendramati-
callyextendthehumanlifespan.
*



*
 While many diet books are a bit ambitious in terms of what they

promise,RayKurzweilandTerryGrossmantakethingstoanentirely
newlevel with two books (Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live
Forever and Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever) based on the
premise that ifyou can justhold on longenough to make ittothe
point of extraordinary technological acceleration (the “Singularity”),
you should be abletotakeadvantageofthecontinuous medicalad-
vancesthatwillensue,andthenmanagetobecomeessentiallyimmor-
tal. You won’t find many other books that discuss subjects such as
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 240

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
TheessentialpointIwanttomakeisthatallthistruly
amazingstuffwillrequireenormousinvestment.Certainly,tril-
lionsofdollarswillneedtobeinvestedinordertomake
such technologies a reality. As I have pointed out
throughout this book, such investment cannot occur in
theabsenceofrobustconsumerdemand.Withinthecon-
textofthefreemarketeconomy,noinvestorwouldmake
suchaninvestmentunlessheorsheanticipatesavibrant
marketfortheresultingtechnology.
IwouldalsoarguethatthelevelofautomationIhave
beendiscussinginthebook—inotherwords,theideathat
a substantial fractionof routine,average jobs willbeau-
tomated—representsamuchlowerpointonthetechnolo-
gycurvethanall thisreallyfantasticstuff.Therefore,itwill
occurfirst.AsIhavepointedout,iftechnologypermanently
eliminateshugenumbersofworkers—and createsperva-
sive fear in the minds of those who still have jobs—
consumer demand would surely suffer dramatically. The
bottomlineisthat,ifoureconomicmodelisnotadapted

to the new reality, technology could essentially kill itself
off.Itisquiteeasytoimagineascenarioinwhichtechnol-
ogyreachedacertainpoint,butthensloweddramatically
orevenhaltedbeforegettingtothereallyamazingthings.


advancedartificialintelligenceandcybernetics—andalsohaveplenty
ofrecipesforhealthydishes.

Appendix / Final Thoughts / 241

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test
Thisbookhasprimarilybeenconcernedwiththepotential
economicimpactofwhatresearchersinthefieldofartifi-
cialintelligencewouldcallnarrowAI.Inotherwords,ma-
chinesandsoftwarethatarecapableofsophisticatedanal-
ysis,decisionmakingandreasoningwithinarelativelynar-
rowfieldofapplication.Suchmachinesarenotreallyintel-
ligentinanymeaningfulsense—buttheyarehighlycom-
petentatperformingspecificcomplextasksandmaywell
exceedthecapabilityofahumanworker.
NarrowAIapplicationsarealreadyinwidespreaduse;
expertsystemssuchasthesoftwarethatcanautonomous-
lypilotandlandairlinersandmanyoftheadvancedfea-
tures built into Internet search engines and multiplayer
role playing games fall into this area. Narrow AI is the
practicalsideofartificialintelligence,andforthatreason,
we can expect that it will attract substantial commercial
investment.AsIhavearguedinthisbook,machinesexhi-

bitingvastlyimprovednarrowAIcapabilitymayultimately
be poised to permanently take over a great many of the
moreroutinejobsintheeconomy.
WhilenarrowAIisincreasinglydeployedtosolvereal
worldproblemsandattractsmostofthecurrentcommer-
cialinterest,the HolyGrailofartificial intelligenceis, of
course, strong AI—the construction of a truly intelligent
machine.TherealizationofstrongAIwouldmeantheex-
istenceofamachinethatisgenuinelycompetitivewith,or
perhaps evensuperiorto,a human beinginitsabilityto
reasonandconceiveideas.TheargumentsIhavemadein
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 242

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
thisbookdonotdependonstrongAI,butitisworthnot-
ingthatiftrulyintelligentmachineswerebuiltandbecame
affordable, the trends I havepredicted here would likely
beamplified,andtheeconomicimpactwouldcertainlybe
dramaticandmightunfoldinanacceleratingfashion.
ResearchintostrongAIhassufferedbecauseofsome
overlyoptimisticpredictionsandexpectationsbackinthe
1980s—long before computerhardware was fast enough
to make true machine intelligence feasible. When reality
fellfarshortoftheprojections,focusandfinancialback-
ingshiftedaway fromresearchintostrongAI.Nonethe-
less,thereisevidencethatthevastlysuperiorperformance
andaffordabilityoftoday’sprocessorsishelpingtorevital-
izethefield.
ResearchintostrongAI canberoughlydivided into
twomainapproaches.Thedirectcomputationalapproach

attemptstoextendtraditional,algorithmiccomputinginto
therealmof true intelligence. This involves the develop-
ment of sophisticated software applications that exhibit
generalreasoning.Asecondapproachbeginsbyattempt-
ingtounderstandandthensimulatethehumanbrain.The
Blue Brain Project,
57
 a collaboration between Switzerland’s
EPFL (one of Europe’s top technical universities) and
IBM, is one such effort to simulate the workings of the
brain.Onceresearchersgainanunderstandingofthebasic
operating principles of the brain, it may be possible to
build an artificial intelligence based on that framework.
Thiswouldnotbeanexactreplicationofahumanbrain;
instead,itwouldbesomethingcompletelynew,butbased
onasimilararchitecture.
Appendix / Final Thoughts / 243

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
When might strong AI become reality—if ever? I
suspectthatifyouweretosurveythetopexpertsworking
inthefield,youwouldgetafairlywiderangeofestimates.
Optimistsmightsayitwillhappenwithinthenext20to30
years. Amorecautiousgroup would placeit 50or more
yearsinthefuture,andsomemightarguethatitwillnever
happen.
True machine intelligence is an idea that, in many
ways,intrudesintotherealmofphilosophy,andforsome
people,perhapsevenreligion.Whatisthenatureofintel-
ligence? Is intelligence algorithmic? Can it be separated

fromconsciousnessorself-awareness?RogerPenrose,one
of the world’s top mathematical physicists, has written
severalbooks
58
suggestingthattrueartificialintelligenceis
unattainableusingconventionalcomputersbecausehebe-
lieves that intelligence (or at least consciousness) has its
rootsinquantummechanics—theareaofphysicsthatgo-
vernstheprobabilistic,andseeminglybizarre,interactions
thatoccurbetweenparticlesofsubatomicsize.
IfstrongAIdoesarrive,howwillweknow?Thatisa
question that was first askedbyAlan Turing nearlysixty
years ago. Turing, a legendaryBritish mathematician and
codebreakerduringWorldWarII,isoftenconsideredto
bethefounderofcomputerscience.In1950,Turingpub-
lishedapaperentitled“ComputingMachineryandIntelli-
gence,”inwhich he proposed atesttoanswer theques-
tion:“Canmachinesthink?”
Turing’stestwasbasedonagamepopularatparties
at the time. In today’s terms, it amounts to a three-way
instant messaging conversation. One participant is a hu-
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 244

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
manjudge.Theotherparticipantsareanotherpersonand
amachine—bothofwhomattempttoconvincethejudge
thattheyarehumanbyconductinganormalconversation.
Ifthejudgecan’ttellwhichparticipantiswhich,thenthe
machineissaidtohavepassedtheTuringTest.
TheTuringTestisperhapsthemostwell-knownand

acceptedmethodformeasuringtruemachineintelligence.
Inpractice,theruleswouldneedtobefurtherrefined,and
it seems likely that a panel of judges would be required
ratherthanasingleperson.Inmyopinion,themainprob-
lemwiththeTuringTestisthatitis,asTuringpointedout
inhispaper,an“imitationgame.”Whatitreallytestsisthe
abilityofanintelligententitytoimitateahumanbeing—it
isnotatestofintelligenceitself.Presumablytheconversa-
tioncouldroamintoalmostanyarea,soIthinkitisquite
possiblethatanintelligentmachinemightbetrippedupby
alackofactualhumanexperience.
Therealization ofstrongAIwouldmeanthatatrue
alien intelligencehasappeared right here—rather than in
thesignalsreceivedfromoneoftheradiotelescopesused
bytheSETIproject.Wecouldnotreasonablyexpectsuch
analienentitytothinkjustlikeusornecessarilybeableto
replicateourexperiencesoroutlook.Myguessisthatthe
besttest fortruemachineintelligence willturnouttobe
similartothestandarddevisedbySupremeCourtJustice
PotterStewartforobscenity:we’llknowitwhenweseeit.
If it does occur, the advent of genuinely intelligent
machines will carry with it many potential perils for our
Appendix / Final Thoughts / 245

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
society and economy.
*
 However, there is a more subtle
danger posed by thespecter of strong AI: it distracts us
fromthefarmoreimmediate economicimpactsthatwill

likelyresultfromnarrowAI.Recentarticlesinthepress
59

havepointedoutthatmachinescurrentlyexhibit“insect-
level”intelligence.Inotherwords,ifweweretosetoutto
buildabroadlyintelligent machinetoday, we’dlikelyend
upwithsomethingaboutassmartasacockroach.
Theproblemwiththatcomparisonisthatitgivesusa
false senseof security; it glosses overtheobvious reality
that cockroaches neither land aircraft nor defeat human
beingsatgamesofchess.Whenmachinecapabilityisfo-
cusednarrowly,thestoryisverydifferent.Ithinkthereis
littledoubtthatinthecomingyearsanddecades,ourdefi-
nitionofwhatconstitutes“narrow”artificialintelligenceis
goingtobroadenquitedramatically.Ifitbroadenstothe
degree that machines begin to encroach on a substantial
fractionofthe jobsthatsupportconsumers,the viability
of capitalism will ultimately be threatened—unless, of
course,oureconomicrulesareadaptedtoreflectthenew
reality.


*
Theseissuesarebeyondthescopeofthisbook.Foragoodintroduc-
tiontothisarea,I’drecommendreading“Whythefuturedoesn’tneed
us,”anarticlewrittenbySunMicrosystemsco-founderBillJoyforthe
April,2000issueofWiredMagazine.

Web:
/>


CopyrightedMaterial–
Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon



About / Contacting the Author


MartinFordisthefounderofaSiliconValley-basedsoft-
waredevelopmentfirm.Hehasover25yearsexperience
in the fields of computer design and software develop-
ment. He holds an MBA degree from the Anderson
GraduateSchoolofManagementatUCLAandanunder-
graduatedegreeincomputerengineeringfromtheUniver-
sityofMichigan,AnnArbor.

Hehasablogat
.

The author welcomes comments, criticisms and correc-
tionsandcanbecontactedbyemailat:



Theauthoralsohasablogat:







CopyrightedMaterial–
Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon
NOTES


Introduction
1
LarryPageonAIatGoogle:Web: />11395_3-6160372.html
video: />6160334.html?tag=mncol;txt

2
Kurtzweilhasa$20,000betwithMitchKaporthatacomputerwill
passthe“TuringTest”andthusexhibithuman-likeintelligence(see
lastsectionoftheAppendix)bytheyear2029.Web:
/>
Chapter 1: The Tunnel
3
USCensusBureau,2004,web: />Release/www/releases/archives/education/004214.html

4
Percentageofworld’spopulationinpoverty,seethegraphbasedon
WorldBankdataat
/>stats
.Myfocushereisnotonextremepoverty,whichismeasuredat
1-3dollarsperday,butonanincomelevelthatpreventspeoplefrom
beingviablemassmarketconsumers.
5
DorisKearnsGoodwin,TeamofRivals:ThePoliticalGeniusofAbraham

Lincoln,SimonandSchuster,2005,p77.
6
“Howdeeplythecurseofslavery…”,LetterfromWilliamH.Seward
toAlbertH.Tracy,June25,1835.AlbertH.TracyPapers,NewYork
StateLibrary,AlbanyNY(ascitedinTeamofRivals,p77).

Chapter 2: Acceleration
7
PunchcardsattheUniversityofMichigan:Theuniversitybythen
hadaveryadvancedinteractivetime-sharingsystemcalledthe“Michi-
ganTerminalSystem”orMTS.Moststudentsinadvancedcomputer
scienceandengineeringcoursesusedinteractiveterminals.However,
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 248

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon

interactivecomputertimewasveryexpensive,sopunchcardswere
stillusedinintroductorycourses.
8
AmdahlMIPSrating:RoyLongbottom’sPCBenchmarkCollection,
Web:
/>9
AllcomputerMIPSratingsaretakenfromWikipedia:
/>MacIntoshandLisacomputersusedtheMotorola68000micropro-
cessorwitharatingof1MIPS.
10
CalculatingtheamountinBill’spocket:Googlemakesthiseasy.Just
enterthefollowinginthesearchbox:
.01*2^((1986-1975)/2)(replace1986withthedesiredyear)
11

RayKurzweil,TheSingularityinNear:WhenHumansTranscendBiology,
NewYork,PenguinGroup,2005
12
““S”and“U”encodedwithintheinterferencepatternsofquantum
electronwaves”,StanfordNewsService:
http://news-
service.stanford.edu/news/2009/january28/small-012809.html

13
Manytechnologistsbelievethattheexponentialprogressofinfor-
mationtechnologywillultimatelyleveloff.Inotherworlds,thegraph
willsomedaybecomean“s-curve,”somewhatsimilarinshapetothe
graphofhumancapabilitythatappearslaterinthe“DiminishingRe-
turns”section(seepage4).However,thereisnowaytoknowhowfar
inthefuturethismightoccur,andthereislittleevidencetosuggestit
willhappenanytimesoon.
14
Formoreon“quants”andthecreationofexoticderivatives,see:
EmmanuelDerman,MyLifeasaQuant:ReflectionsonPhysicsandFinance,
NewYork,JohnWileyandSons,2004.
15
CharlesDickens,OliverTwist.
16
JamesJ.Heckman

andPaulA.LaFontaine,“TheDecliningAmeri-
canHighSchoolGraduationRate:Evidence,Sources,AndConse-
Notes / 249

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon


quences”,NBERReporter:ResearchSummary2008,Number1,web:
/>17
Literacystudy,web:
/>18
SATScores,Wikipedia: />19
“AutomationTakesTollOnOffshoreWorkers”byPaulMcDou-
gall,InformationWeek,January26,2004.Web:
/>showArticle.jhtml?articleID=17500858

20
“Theshareofemploymentpotentiallyaffectedbyoffshoring”,Feb
23,2006,OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment
(OECD).Web:
/>21
TableofOccupationstakenfrom:AudreyWatson,“Employment
andWagesofTypicalU.S.Occupations”,U.S.BureauofLaborStatis-
tics,May2006.Web:
/>22
“Tech’spartinpreventingattacks”,MichaelKanellos,CNETNews,
July7,2005.Web:
/>preventing-attacks/2100-7348_3-5778470.html

23
Stack,Martin;Gartland,Myles;Keane,Timothy,“Theoffshoring
ofradiology:mythsandrealities”,SAMAdvancedManagementJournal,
January1,2007.Web:
/>30757731_ITM

24

“Nothingtolosebuttheirchains,”TheEconomist,June19,2008.
Web:
/>=hptextfeature&story_id=11575170

25
Jobscreatedbysmallbusiness,see:SBAFAQ.Web:
/>THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 250

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon

26
“WhysoNervousaboutrobots,Wal-Mart?”,July8,2005,Web:
/>27
“FutureStore”Web: />Internet/html/en/20412/index.html

28
AshleeVance,“MicrosoftMappingCoursetoaJetsons-styleFu-
ture”,NewYorkTimes,March1,2009,Web:
/>computing/02compute.html?pagewanted=1&_r=4&hp

29
P.W.Singer,WiredforWar:TheRoboticsRevolutionandConflictinthe
21stCentury,NewYork,PenguinPress,2009,pp140-1.
30
Formoreonnanotechnologyandlivingorganisms,see:RichardA.
L.Jones,SoftMachines:NanotechnologyandLife,Oxford,OxfordUniver-
sityPress,2004.
31
Averagewagesbyeducationlevel:U.S.CensusBureauNewsRe-
lease,January10,2008.Web:

/>Release/www/releases/archives/education/011196.html

32
WilliamEasterly,TheElusiveQuestforGrowth:Economists’Adventures
andMisadventuresintheTropics,Cambridge,MA,MITPress,2002,p.53.
33
“OutsourcingnottheCulpritinManufacturingJobLoss”,Automa-
tionWorld,December9th,2003.Web:
/>34
AlanGreenspan,TheAgeofTurbulence,NewYork,ThePenguin
Press,2007,p.397.
35
ABCNews20/ 20Special,“LastDaysonEarth”,2006
36
KurtzweilpredictstheTechnologicalSingularityby2045:Fortune
Magazine,May14,2007,Web:
/>07/05/14/100008848/

37
“VernorVingeontheSingularity,”Web:
/>
Notes / 251

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon

Chapter 3: Danger
38
RobertJ.Shapiro,Futurecast:howsuperpowers,populations,andglobaliza-
tionwillchangethewayyouliveandwork,NewYork,St.Martin’sPress,
2008.

39
ThomasL.Friedman,TheWorldisFlat:ABriefHistoryoftheTwenty
FirstCentury,NewYork,Farrar,StrauseandGiroux,2005,2006.
40
China’shighsavingratetheresultofgovernmentpolicy,see:Ea-
monnFingleton,IntheJawsoftheDragon:America’sFateintheComing
EraofChineseHegemony,NewYork,St.Martin’sPress,2008.
41
PietraRivoli,TheTravelsofaT-ShirtintheGlobalEconomy:AnEcono-
mistExaminestheMarkets,PowerandPoliticsofWorldTrade,JohnWiley
andSons,NewYork,2005,p40.
42
Ibid.p142.
43
JeffRubinandBenjaminTal,“WillSoaringTransportCostsRe-
verseGlobalization?,”CIBCWorldMarketsStrategEcon,March27,
2008.Web:
/>44
Revenueperemployeenumbers.Source:GoogleFinance,basedon
2008revenue.
45
“…growthwithoutjobcreation.”,TheEconomist,August11,2003.
Web:
/>_ID=1985889

46
Huether,David,“TheCaseoftheMissingJobs,BusinessWeek,April
3,2006.Web:
/>8116.htm


47
Technicallythismightbebettercalled“regressive”or“reversepro-
gressive”sincethedeductionishigheratlowerwagelevels.However,
thosewordshavenegativeconnotations…
48
FareedZackaria,TheFutureofFreedom:IlliberalDemocracyatHomeand
Abroad,NewYork,W.W.Norton&Co.,2003,p.172-173.
THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 252

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon

49
Blinder,AlanS.,“IsGovernmenttooPolitical?”ForeignAffairs,No-
vember/December1997.Web:
/>blinder/is-government-too-political.html

50
JeremyRifkin,TheEndofWork:TheDeclineoftheGlobalLaborForce
andtheDawnofthePost-MarketEra,NewYork,PenguinGroup,1995.

Chapter 4: Transition
51
CorneliaDean,“ScientificSavvy?InU.S.NotMuch”,NewYork
Times,August30,2005,web:
/>52
SeeChrisAnderson’sTheLongTail:WhytheFutureofBusinessisSelling
LessofMore,abookbasedonanarticleinWiredMagazine,October
2004.Web:
/>53
JohnMaynardKeynes,“EconomicPossibilitiesforourGrandchil-

dren,”(writtenin1930),EssaysinPersuasion,NewYork,W.W.Norton,
1963.Web:
/>p.195footnote,Einstein’sviewontechnologicalunemployment,see:
WalterIsaacson,Einstein:HisLifeandUniverse,NewYork,Simon&
Schuster,2007,p.403.

Chapter 5: The Green Light
54
Formoreonthechallengesofaddressingpoverty,see:WilliamEas-
terly,TheElusiveQuestforGrowth:Economists’AdventuresandMisadventures
intheTropics,Cambridge,MA,MITPress,2002.

Appendix / Final Thoughts

55
A.MTuring,“ComputingMachineryandIntelligence”,Mind,1950.
Web: />Notes / 253

CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon

56
“Frenchstudentsshyofrealworld”,BBCNews,March14,2008.
Web:
/>57
BlueBrainProject,Web: />58
RogerPenrose,TheEmperor’sNewMind:ConcerningComputers,
Minds,andtheLawsofPhysics,OxfordUniversityPress,1989and
ShadowsoftheMind:ASearchfortheMissingScienceofCon-
sciousness,OxfordUniversityPress,1994.
59

Forexample:JohnMarkoff,“ScientistsworrythatMachinesmay
OutsmartMan”,NewYorkTimes,July25,2009.Web:
/>m
