Financial planning and forecasting potx


 。













Financial planning and forecasting
一、 Financial planning content
1. Assumpons
!
"
#
$
%"
& 。
2. Sales forecast
!
'



 。

( )
*

'

'
 。
+ )
*
When sales increase, you must meet the xed assets (such as machinery,
plant) or working capital (such as accounts receivable) increases, it is
necessary to calculate the required amount of the increase in the number
of assets and
, 
*
-.
/
01

" 。
2 -
*



3
 。
二、 Sales forecast
*
But forecast possible future sale of the company situaon, you must

rst calendar year based on sales forecasts as the starng point of the
situaon 。
*
In order to accurately predict future trends, by several aspects ：
!
.4
5
 。
!
"6.
 。
!
789
:.
三、 3 ;%
*
Assume ：
!
<'
 。
!
1 。
1. Percentage of sales method
!

'"==
''
>?
3
3

2. Formula method


 ， @ ： $'%
 9@ ： -$
%
 - ： -
 -
A
： )
 B- ： 1C$-AD-%
  ： ;
  ： :
;E'
D
$'%
)

FG2(HH

:,GI

;,I

JHGI

KA


First, the assumpons and the sales forecast:

(Percentage of sales method, the same as those formula method)
1. Assumpons ：
Sales can be expected 20x7 annual growth of 20% 。
2. Sales forecast ：
20x7 = annual sales of 3.99 billion yuan x (1+20%)
= 4.788 billion yuan
一、 Percentage of sales method
3. Expectaon to the preparaon of nancial statements
Step1: Calculang the percentage of sales

-'
 。
Step2: With sales forecast changes the balance of subjects

FGLM+MNN3
'
'FGLM 。
Step3: Treatment does not change the subject with the balance of sales

FGL2
D" 。
Step4: Retained earnings forecast
FGLMCO
CP+MNNO,I
CPF(H+GGGGG
FGLM 年 Q
＝ FGL2 年 Q ＋ FGLM 年 :
O （ A － :%
＝ P(F+H+A+GG ＋ PF(H+GGGGGO$A － ,GI%
＝ P+++2+A+GG

Step5: Esmated demand for addional funds


PFM+(,F+GGG
*
It is expected that the total liabilies and shareholders' equity is
only $ 2,569,816,200, so is the shortage of addional funding
requirements:
$ 173,707,800 = $ 2,743,524,000 - $2,569,816,200
;E "
3
3D

Step6: Addional funding




RDPH+G,+NGGPAFN(2F,GGG
-D/3E
9DCPH+G,+NGGSPAM(MGMNGGCPF2MM2F2GG
9CPF2MM2F2GGSPAFN(2F,GGG
CPA,,A(NMGGGJPF+2HAMA2GG
:$%
Second, the formula method
Restricons on capital demand forecasts
* More or less regardless of predicon method has its
own assumpons, but the real world is not the case, it is also a direct
result of money demand forecasts restricons. 。

* With the assets of economies of scale
! >

* Need to purchase a large number of assets
! >
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Business growth and corporate nancial policy
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* 1T3
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bROA1
bROA
內部成長率
×−
×
=
bROE1
bROE
維持成長率
×−
×
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