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PARI
5
anl machire thir crnnor be desc.ibcd
r\ i
rool. lycn
mxchiics dcsif,ncd

()
cnrcni;n or
:lmusc us-for
crxnrplc,
lor rol)ols. c:rrs.
lidco
8amcs.
lnd
noy(lr\'ircn]s-xrc
in tuct r(x'ls. Nhiclr thcir in!cnrors rnd
Pronrolcrs
usc fol
cng:rginF
jn
conrmcrcc xnd tl)( busincss ol crrrnrinrr(nr
rtnd rnruscmcnt.
nd dr( cliim
rhar i mxchinc
can be
an
cnd
in irscll
vithou( purpost or
utilirxrixn funcLion
fo.
hunr rs
wh:usocvc is
(lubntr's:1r
b(st. sioc€ I c;'nnol
conjurc up cvcn a sinSl( cxrmplc of rnl sucll

mrchinc Thus,
whcn v!
d€vcloD
anr'
son of
machinc- ve
ils'xvs
hivc
somr
son of cnd in mind-i
pucpos€
for that machinc.
As for the sralemenr's:iecond chim. in ccnain
respccts, machincs
xr(
supenor.
\\'e
havc dc\'r o m:.ch,nes rhir
pcrlorm
numbcFcrunchnt
anJ
orhcr
rolc cer€bral t-Isks
with grcrter
rccur]cl
xDd
spc(d
lhan hum3n mitds
ev€r
could. ln fac!, it is bccause

ve
can dcvisc machincs
that arc
supcrior
in
rhcsc respecrs lhar
we
devise lh€m-as our rools-to be8il|
wjrh.
Howcvcr.
iJ one
defincs supcrioriq, not in terms of competcnc€
in
performin8
rotc
rrrks but r?thcr
in
other
wavs,
human rdnds arc superior. Ilachines
bavc no
capacity for independenr thought, for making
judgmcn6
based
on normativc
considemdons, or for developirg emoliond
responses ro inicUcctud
problcms.
Up unril noq'. dre notion of human-madc machines
rhrt dcvclop rhc

.biliq to t]rinli on thcir own rnd ro dcvclop scc:tlled
'cmotional
irrclLisence'h?l been
pr.c
ficrion. Besidcs,
even in liction,
wc
humbs
ultimatc\'
prcvan
ovcr such machincs-as in thc c25es
of Frankenstein's
monsrcr
and Hal, the compurer in 2001:
A Spacc
OdJ,sr.l,.
Yet
jt
sccm(
pr€sumpruous
ro
assen
q'jrh
conidcncc tha! humrns
will
a)ways mxinlain
thct
supcrior
stxtus ovef their m:lchines. Recent :rdvinces
in

biorcchnolo8l,
penicularly
in the.Jca of human
Benome
rcscarch, sug8esr
that
within
tbc
rwcnty-first
ccntury, wcrll
witness
mxchines rhar can lcam
to thi!-k on rhcir
o\a'n. ro rcpar
lnd nufture themselvcs,
ro cxpe.ience
visceral
scnsadons,
aJ|d so forth. ln other
words.
machincs
will
soon exhbit
thc traits ro
which
wc
humans
antiburc oui own
supcrioriq'.
ln sum, bccausc

n'e
devise machines in order
thai tbel ma-\'scfvc us, il
is fai.r
to characreri?e machines as
"rools
of human
miods." And insofar
zj
humans have
*re uniquc
crpacitJ'for indepcndenl
thought, subjcctivc
iudgmcnt,
and cmotional responsc,
ir
also
seems
fair
ro claim supcrioriq
- -
-
over our machines. Besides, shorid
we
c\'cr
become so
cl€\'er a
spccics
as lo
dcvisc nuchires Lhat can rru\'rhink

fo.
tlrcmsclv$<
and look
our
for tlcit
.osn ,rvc!-bcing,-
th cn corsider whcrhcr
rhcse
mrchincs of drc futurc
would
.bc
"machine5".
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Ell
PART
5
lssur
No.
87
A,rc
\\/ar and
Ciimc Producls
of
thc
Human Condition:,
Afc
prodocls
of humrn nirur€
such
is N:||
and
crimc
rciurlh
producls

ol lhc humrn
condirion-spccitcall!.
lack
of rcsourccs and lerriron,? Thc
speakcr claims
so. I srrongl! dis!gr€c.
bow€vcr.
Whcdrcr wc
iook rr
scicncc
and histon orsimpl)'look
arouncj
us in ourdail! livcs.
pc
scc amplc
cvidcncc
thrr human
agg.cssion is rhe product
oI oLr na$rc as hunr.lns-and not
of
o r circumsirnccs.
Firs( of all, the chim
runs conunD
ro m!
pcrsonal
obscn'arioo about
h
dividual
behrvior-cspcci l] whcn ir
co;cs ro mxtcs. Onc nccd look

no
tunier
thao rhe locrl school
g.ound
or Ljrdcrsa(€n
playroom
!o sce thc
roots
of crime and
wnr.
EveD, scbool
-vard
bas irs bulh
who dciiFhrs
in
rormcnriDg
mcckcr scbootnares; and
in cvcn kirdc.tanrn cllssroom, r.hcrc
is at
jc$t
onc miscrcut whosc
habir
is ro s rrch awa' rhc favorirc roys
of
classmares-purcll
for rhc cnjoymem
of hnvirf seizcd
propcnl'
ft.om
another.

And thcsc behaviors
ar€ clcar\,
nor for
Nan!
of resources or
acrrjroq,. Thus, d)c
onl)'rcason:rbic
cxpl:lnitjo'r is rhxr rhc\,arc
products
of
hurnan nattlr€-nor
of
rhc
human condirion,
Second.ly, lhe cl:tim
llics in t})c face
of
whal
scicnlisls havc rcamco
about
genericaiiy
dctennincd
hrimar tiairs.
Minl,human Fai$-nor
jusr
physicil
oocs bur
psvcholotticrl
oncs as welt-arc prcdcrcrmincd
ar

binh.
And ro a
grea!
cxr€n!,
we
hxve
inherired
our
gcnelic
pr€disposirion
fiom our
nonhuman anccsrors.
Onc mjghr
argue thta lower lnimal
species engagc in
s.irlilic
bchrvior for rhc
main rcason
$at thc],musr do so to
prorcc!
tbcir
tcrritory
or ahcir clan
or tor food-not
because of thcir narurc.
yer,
thi5
point
bc8s rhe
quesrion;

for
wc
hmrns
havc becn
Sencricaltr
proSnrnmcd,
thiough
the cvolutionary process,
ro behtvc in
simila!
wt1's,
In o$er'words,
doiog so is
simplr our narure.
Thirdly,
tilc claim
makcs lirde
scnsc in th€ contcl't ofhuman hisron,.
prior
ro rhc last
few cinturics,
thc inhabiablc
regions
of our
ptaner providco
amprc
rcrrirory and
rcsol[ces-such
ai
food a,1d culli

ble
lard-ro accommodarc
cvcry hrxian
hhrbiranl.
Ycr orlr disunt
ancesrols eDgagcd in
war
aJId
cdmc
2n\'war'. \Y,4rar
else cxplairs
dts, cxcett thar
iL
js
prn
ofour inher€nr n:rturc ro
cnSrgc
i, aggrcssivc
behavior rovard
olher
humirts? Morcovcr, ifrrec considcr
tllc
vano$
cxpcrimcnrs with
Marx3-C!.In.nudsm,
ilbecomcs ctcaf rhar rhc
purc
Marxisr
Strra in n,hich
a]l reEirory

and .€rourccs are shrcd accordjng
ro
thc
necG
ofeach individual
dcics
Dor'work in
p.icric€.
Evcrvaftcmpr, whcrhcr
on thc
macro
or mic.o lcvcl, hrj
fn cd ar rhc hards
of
a fcw
cicmrgogucs or
dcspori. who
agtrcss
and oppress
likc
piaySround
bullics
ln
sum, rhe ,uthor
of this
sratcmenr misundarsrrncts ric
roors of such
pDcnomcri
?r
sar

and
cfime_
The
sr.rcrnenr runs
contnn.ro my
pcrsonrl
obscrvations
of humlr
behavior, ro rhc sc'enrific
norions of
gcnctc
p.cdisposirion
and
cvoludon of
spccies,
and io
rhc oler-whclrning lack
ot
cvidcncc
thlr
providir8
xmpte rcsources ro peoplr
solrrs thesc problcms.
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16
'oN
rnssl
SinSSr
lilg-lV
3lJiO
0Z
alol S/.YS:l
::.:.' -:
PAAI
5
on
thc
notion th;]l undcsrnbl( human L)chtr!ior
can bc chrngcd-tirrouEh
!;lrious mcrns of rcfornr rn(l l)chrvior
rnodificxtion.
In sum.
tbt
sf€.kcr
orlrtcncErlizrs
\\tcn
il corjrcs

ro rh(
raluc
of an
rnd
scienc(-bolh of
Rhich
se^c i
in othcr cxscs
()
r'pscr
ln rn!
cvcnt.
thc spcrkcf missrf,tcs
lll(
ind
\'aluc
of scicncc.
Nbich
;s ro cjiscovrr
Inrths.
wbcdrcr
upseninS.
I5SUE
NO.
I UJ
Is
It
a Mistakc
io Theorize
vithour

Data?
ffl
Is i!
I
"8r.rvc
misl3ke' ro iheodzc
N'lhout
dit-1,
as tlrc sPcalicr
contcnds?
I agrcc insofar as ro t}eori?e b€Iorc
collccting sumcicnl
dau
js
to
risk
t-xinring the
proccss
of collecting
and interprcltng funhcr
data.
Hov€vcr, ir a scnse.
rhe speaker
be8s
thc
qucstion
bI overlookil]g
t})e facl
rhar evcry rheoq'requircs
somc datn to bc8jn

s'ith. l\{orcoler,
thc claim
unfrjrly ignorcs equau'
II:rve
conscqucnccs of
wxiring lo $eoriz€
unril $c
obrrin roo much dill.
ln one imponant rcspec!, I
agree
with
th€ spcaler's
cont€ntion. ,4
rhcoo'conjurcd
up
sirhour
the
bcnefir of
d:rtr rmounrs
ro lildc morc
thu
rhc tl)co.isas hopcs
and dcsi.cs-Nhat hc or 5he
vrnls ro
bc
Lrue and no! bc
rrue. Accordingl), lhis theo.isr
will
r€nd ro scek
out cvidcnce

that suPPoru
rh€ lhcoq'
rnd orerlook or avoid cvidcncc
rhrr retutes i!. One
rclling
hisrorical
examplc involves theones aboul fte
ccnler ot the
uruversc.
UndcrslandablJ',
we
c8o.dd\'cn
humans
would ptcfcr tlul thc univcrsc
reeolvc
rround us. F-lrh tbeories
preslmed so for llis
rcalon, nnd
sub,seqlent
obs€rvations tia! ran conua4'
to dis c8o{riven
trcory
s/eta
ignored,
'while
tl1c obscrvers
were
scomed
ard ev€n
vlined.

By theolizirg beforc collcctnS d:i?,
the ttreo.is!
elso
runs
the risk ol
Ll]terpreli'lg thzt da!, in
,
maoner thar
mskcs il appcar
to lcnd morc
crcdencc
to th€ th€ory than ir actutllt'docs. Considcr
the theory
tbat linn
is nar-
Ary
pcrson wjth
a cierr
view
of drc
horizon musl
agree in ali honcsq
tlar thc evidence docs not suppon
the theo4 - Yel
prior
to Nc&'ronirn
physics,
the
notion ofl
sphericil Erlth

s'as
5o unsettling
ro
peoplc thxr thq
intcrpretcd rhc ,rc.shapcd
honzon
as
evidcncc of a convc)i,
I'et
ncv€nlrclctl
"flanish."
Frrth.
Dcspirc lhe mcdr5 of
rhc
spc:Jter's
claim, l'find it
probiematic
in
t$!
cruciil rcspects. First,
ionimon scnsc inJoms me
rlla! it is
jmpossiblc
m
tico.ize in thc ifsr
pl2cc
vit})out
rt least some
dau- llosr' c?n
thcoriuinl

witlrout
deu be
dan8crous, as the spcakcr contcnds,
iI il is nol
cval
possiblc? whilc
a thcory
b:$cd
?ure\'
on fmraq' mitjrt
ultimatc\' be bon
out by cmpirical obscnalion,
jt
is equilb
possiblc that it
von'r-
Thur
without
prior
d-al.a, a thco!_'r' is no(
wonh
our
timc or aftcnuon.
Secondll',
th. spcak.r's claim ovcrlooks
thc inverse
problcm: dr
danger
of continuinS !o:cquire
diti

vithout vcnrurinS a thcon'bascd
or
t1!tu.?cr.60,a an
P.tman
r
'
\vn nF
Sk/tblar
h
GPE/G
AT T.t
Itorl
It t'
1
strI tsJ"tatI1tIn
t nt
.,, r,,t
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r
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5
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conrrn
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r,,,.n.c
tri.
cuL.Irn
:Jr(nvrrJ.
Do
]r",
prlnor'sm
rnd
mcrdr
rcvcrJ
our
socicnj\
*,.

1,.^:i
*11
*.
:.",
; ,
,
:.;,.;,
,
;:l:,,iti
l::
:i;;;;;
'"o
,.,
",.,
un rn(
orhcr
t)rnd.
(unsidcr
r
rt)rr.t
r\trc.,,
f,".u.
i,,.
Lhr
rpiu

ol
:::l:l ^.,1,,*
$ho
rnsnirc:

,nd
in.,rr<
socj(h.
ru
n)crn,nFJUr
rorllrclr
and
rocrxr
crrrnsr.
Such
lumir)arics
as
lndii.< n
,_,,,,.,,c,g
s"",i,
run:;;Ji;;1';j"llli:,fl
,::"Itilffi,,;l:I::l:
rm".cdiareh
ro
mind.
Ttris
uniquc
bnnd
of
hcro
does
r".,
,.;;;;:;
musr
reflccr,,

rhc
chir:r.rer
of
rhc
hcro.s
socrcr\

,rrer
it,.
ir i(
I trc
funcrion
nf
li:.,.::.1",
.n":l'""
ro
(J,
arrenrion
ro
drq
ch
.:rcr(,
.,.
_.o; ;;;.;
nivlr8
vicwed
iLs
rcnecrion
in
rh€

her
:rccordlLncc.with
i$
cor.a,,""
*","a,ar.''"
is
incitcd
lo:lcr
bnvcrv-in
ln
sum,
I agrec
wirh
rbc
sDeatc,
crramprons
or socicq,s
u*i"]
;;".;H:;,.iJ:ff
i:.,:i.:iin::J:
r€llccls
instcad
a
basic
and
universal
huh
pc
.,n
rcrcr

as
mc'ph."
t;;;;;;
ii"'
n€ed
ror
parisons-to
wbom
wc
cu]nor
oursclves
,cn€c!.
v[ttr€s
Lhat
for
lack
of
chancrcr,
lssur
No.
I
15
Ritua]s,
Cercmo&ies,
and
CuIhx.aI
ldentifr,
Thc
speakcr
rsrcds

,,.*
*
g-up
or
f
;,J'l:l:H::ff;:T:::;,::".il.:i.:,.'::
f;l
onc purpose
of
.imat,,.1d
c
modcm
rim€s.
n"".'"
":l:T:iLl'
:o
prcserve
culnrral
idcntiq
'
aI
lcast
jn
ccrcmony
$c
"",
^**,:l;:::i,,1.1i,,",i1,i13.,ff
no,
xrc
ri,ua,

aod
I
agec
wjth (he
spealc,
irsohr
as
or.
orrPo
J
n*",
-d
cercmonl,
in roday,s
world
is
ro
prcservc
cu.lrunl
idcnri$,.
Nadve
_imclican
tribcs,
Jor
cx.2Jnptc,
cting
.cnacioustl,
ro.tircir
rndirionat
*__""nrrnd

nir
., *lri*
rypicary
rcll
a
sro,.',
abour
tribat
hcnra"
or.
**.,
i
i"i""ffi,
"*.
Druals
:nd
cusroms
les
larc.t! in ,"- ,"r-,, .;;
",-" ,
assimilalion,
.".n
o,jr].#t'l-
T.
tjrc
rribes'
50G]'e'r
stru8slc
aSrjrst
ourward

display
of
u?d,,,or]ll
"t
tnt
hrncls
of
European
rnlrudcrs-
Ar
llrc
world
on
,,od.a
abo,
.,r,
au",o_s
and
disrirct
herila8e
is
ncedcd
to
put
Eirh
irs
ovJn
n.n, ,
_Jl
*.;::.jlT:T.lt,JTT :"r,.::l;

_
,ssimilarion
and
loss
of
iacnnty.
Thc
lack
af
mci,rrgu
r*l
_ji!i.
Amcrica
undc^corcs
*.
;
a.
i,i
;.',iTi?
liif
.fifi
[i'j
ffi;g
such
ij weddings
?rd
ilrncrats,
wc
ei,.l
i1i: 133'

.,1i ,,'*.;;;:,;;;tT.T,:.
ff
ff
H:""::
#
::_""_:Y:-
idcnun.
or
lls
own
ir]vmo,e
Lnsrc,d.
ir
has
becomc
e
fj:l:"'I.
q'u,
of
many
subcurrlrcs.
",",,
",
^",,,.
o_.nla'",
n^t,i
Jcws,
Amish,
2nd
urban

ALic?n
Amcricms
ourwaro
dco,,onsrxrrion
of
irs
dislincdvc
ich
of which
rcsoru
ro
somc
mrinlain
I
unjque
*,*'oi,0.r,,i,'""""!ness
in
order
ro
esLrblish
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Yrfritits
5k k
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PANT
5
()r
considcr lhc
Forl
o[
providint
l)rrsic li'()d xrrd sh(lr cr for xn innoc€nl
child.
nvonc

would
rtrcc
rh

dris
Aorl
is hiflrlr'
wonhy-considcrcd xp:rd
from th( mc.lns L'scd ro:rchi(vc ir. Ihr
whxt
if thosc mcrns
jnlolvc
srcnlinl
fron)
othcrs?
Or
whar
if rbc! involvc
cmplolin8
drc
child
in a swexlshop ar
thc c\pcnsc of cduc:l(inF rhc child.
CIearl),
dcre.mining rlrc
wonhincss
of
such
forls
requircs rhrr

rvc
confronr mofll dilcmmas,
which Nc
cach
solvc
individullll'-bxscd
on our
own
consci€nce,
\'xluc
sYsrcm.
:lnd noLions
of
faimess
ard
cquiq'.
On
,
sociccrl lcvcl.
wc
dctcmrine drc
eonhincss
of our
Sorls
in much
tlrr sime
N:r)-b)
sci!rrin8
comp.trn! !nrcr(sts. For inslincc. an)
thou8htful

pcrson Nould
l8rec thxr
rcducing
;rir ,rd Nrter
pollution
is I
worth)
socictal
goxl;
clcan air and w:rtcr
rcducc
thc
burdcn
on out
hcalth{arc resourccs and improvc thc
qualiN
of
lifc for evcryone in socicq.
Yct ro
lnain this
8od,
would s,c
be
justitcd
in forcbiS
entlre industrics out
of busincrs, thcrcbv ruffiing thc risk of cconomjc
paral)'sis ard wjdcsprcld
un€mploymcnt? Or coosidcr ,\mcrica's intcwcndon in Laq's
invasion

o{
Kuwai!. Did Amcrica's dud inrcrcsr in a condnuing flow of oil
to thc Wcst
and in dercning ?
porcntill
thrclt igxinsr
lhc securiry ofrhc
wodd
justtfy
our
cornmirtinS
.resources
thar could h:rvc
b€cn
uscd
rnstcid
for domcsdc
social-wclflrc
progFrns-or
a m)Tiad
of
orhcr
producive
purposcs?
Both
issucs
rDdcrscorc rbe
fact thar rhe
wordincss
of a socicol

goal
cannot
bc
considcred
aprr
fiom tbc meins ud idversc conscqucnccs of atrinin8
thlr
roal
ln sum, drc spcalcr bcgs tl))e
qucstjon.
Thc
wonhincss of any
goal,
whcthcr n
bc
pcrsonrl
or
socicl-d, cxn bc dcrcrrnincd or
-y
by
wcighing
ihc
b€ncJits
of thicvinS thc
8od
aSainst
its costs-to
us as
vell
a5 othc$,

wtlhn?
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Ancullrr.rr
No. i
Docs
Small-tos'n
life
piornotc
lfea-Ith
and
l-onqs\,i11,r
.
Tt,is
ncNsprpcr
sro^
con.l
drs
rtrrr
tirrnr
rn "
,n,rft
,,*r,
p.on,u,
lrc2trh
:rnd
tongcvrn.
Thc
sron,,s
iuil)or
bascs
thi5
conclusior,

on
I
comp;r.'son
bcrvccn
rhc
smalt
rown
of
Lccyj
c xnd
ncarb\:
Mason
C,r'. ;r
much
lxrgcr
ros,n
Hos,cycr,
crrcful
scrurinl
of
lbc xurltor,s
cvto€nc€
rcreals
rha!
jt jcnds
no
crcdibtc
suppon
ro
tl:c author.s

conctusion.
A threshold
problem
*,irh
rhe
xrSumenr
is
lhxr
rhr
author
dnws:l
Fcncral
conclusion
xbour
rhe
effcc!
of a
rown,s
sizc
on rhc
hcikn.
anct
tongcriq,
of
iL!
residcn$
blscd
onl!
on characrcrisrics
of nwo

ros,ns,.Tbc
aulhor
providcs
oo cvidence
thir
thcsc
rwo
rowns (or
rheir
resjder6l
arc
rcprescnt"tivc
oI
otr\cr
lo!1
srmplv
does
nor R?rmn,
-int
tt''
tot
ln othcr
words
this
limilcd
samplc
srze
on .nc
hczrrh
",,'d

,."J.,:,';"#,:"::',Hns
abour
lie err€c!
ora rown's
Nc>r,
rhe
aurbor
circs
ric
fact
rhar
rhc
incidencc
of
sick
tcavc
in
L€evilc
is
lcss
lhan
rn
^1a5on
Cirl
This
cvroencc
wo|l]d
lencl
suppon
ro

rhc
ar'guftcnr
od_v
if the ponion
oI
loczt
residcnrs
employ€d
bl,
locaj
businesscs
vcre
ncrrl),
drc
san)c
in
bodr
roNns
:1.
s.ho
arc
rocar
rcsidcnls
w€re
ncairv
rh:".#:
i;':."r,"i:;:
"J":Ti"l:;
rcl]Llg
on

rllrs
cvjdencc,
Lhe
auiho,lssumcs
Urar
dr€ portion
of sick
cmplovecs
who.cr!a
y
u-ke
sick
teavc
is ncarl),rhc
samc
in bor.b
towns.
In
shon, wjlhout
shovjng
rhxr
thc
wo
tc
2urhor
caonor
dn*.
an"
*,,"0,.
.","o,nlll

lil,
jlTl'"[,liii,X.1'l;
*i
ros.ff
rcsidcnrs_or
abour
the
impacl
of
roR,n
sDc
on
hcrlrh.
.
Thc
ruLhor:tso
cires
rhe
fac(
$at
ilason
Ciq,has
1.ivc rin]es
as
man}
.Phrsici2rs
pcr
rcsidenr
rlan
Lcevlle.

Howcvef.
"r"
"r.U*
"f f" r,
beridcs
tbc
bcatth
of rhc
rowns,
,esidenrs
nx8h!
cxplain
this
dispa.itl,.
For
ex2mplc,
perhaps
Leevile
rcsidenls
choos(
ro
lravet
to
i,jason
Ciw
for
phvsician
vishs.
ai/,ihour
roLns

our
such
cxplanalions,
thesc
pnysician,
rcsidcnt
ririos
prove
norhirS
aboui
rhe
compr:nve
hcetth
of Leeville
and
M.son
crn
rcsrdcnb-or
abour
Lhe
imprcr
ol rovn
sl7e
on hc:trh.
rrnalr}.
rhc
:rurhor
crres
rbe
frct

|J),tl
rhc
a!cmFe
:lse
oj
Lceville
rerrcients
js
higher
than
rhar
of
Ma5on
Cit1,
,esictenrs.
Hoq,evcr,
anl
numbcr
of
f2crors
nu6trr
expldn
L\js
drsp3ntr
For
"*-0
*,n"o,
i.lrn-,.'"
.
:.^:T:i^::T-Trr.,

whir.
Mrson
oq. r,,,.r(15 vounae!
worr.lns
pcopre
::.1:",
*"1'."
pc.hrps
recvirc
,s
compriscd
_,,.r.
.r,"""
ru,r."
i.,q
rcs'dcn6
whosc
lon6cuq.$
aroOur:ilc
chic0r
ro
.tr,omcr
Llcsqlc
in
M or
Ciq,.
h
any
cvcnr,
iie

auihor
cai,'rot
JusLdy
rhe
conclusion
thar
rhjs
dispa.i$
in
avcrl8c
age
is
due
ro
thc
di(crcncc
in
sizc
Ucnccn
rfrc
no
.
h
conclusion,
rhe
;]rSumcnr
rhrr
smal,lo*n
!!in8
promorcs

8ood.
hcaldr
and
torgevjn.
's nnpcrsuasive
as,r
srrncls.
To
srcngthen
rhc
*T-"
Ut"
au$or
musr
provjde
cleai
evidcnce
dr:

rhe
ovcrrtr
popuriUon
ofLrcliltc,
nor
iusr
cmplovccs
in
Lccviltc,
js
hcrtrbi€r

than
rhit
of
\t/ntinR
Skilk
for
tbc
CliL/GluT
TcsLt
I
b.1 :s
&)
t rod 1
tdrt
) I
E
,0,
'rr
rttrt
rrrror""'!
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f
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ro

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fronj
pfsu
prno.A
rd
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r.oor)q

,{rqr
ra^rurqa
,*,r,r,r,ratT-
lq
rl"nn:^a
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or'&utu
ptft
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l_tdt,\vs

HIl
PART
O
Finrll!.
lhc surlc\ rhar
rhc auihor citcs mitsht
br u relixble in anY
of
lhrcc rcspecls. Iirsr,
rh€ xurhor frils
!o
assur(
us ihxr rhc
strlacr.s
rcspondcnrs arc
r€presenurivc
of !rll collcf( srudcnls.
sccond. thc surve!
rcsulrs dcpcnd
on ll)( h0rrcsrl.
:rnd inl(gritI
ot
(hc
rc:,pondcnls. Tbird,
h\'potbeticxl
prcdiclions
xbout
oncs fururr
bch:rrior
:rrc

inhercnrt!
lcss
rclixble rh:rn rrpofts
of
profrn
behrlior. I-rcking
cyidcncc tha! rhc suffe)
i5
rcliiblc. rbr ruthof
srnnol reasonrbtr
rcly on rhc survrr in
rccommcndinA
d)xt othcr colkrcs
xdoDr xn honor
codc.
lo
conclusion. ro pcrsuadr
mc
rhar orher collcSes should,rdopr
an
honor codc
in ordrr ro
rcducc cbcarinF,
d)c rurhor nrust supptl.
clcar
evjdcnce rhar
chc2rinS ar croleroo
jlI
fict dccreased afrcr rhc honor
fodc

was
insrirurcd.hc.c
and rha( il
is rhis codc rhrr \vxs
rcsponsiblc for"dlt
decrase.
Fjnally, to bcrrcr asscss
rhe uscfulncss
of thc surv€1,, I
would
nccd
specitc info.mriion abou!
dre su.vcy's
sajnplirg merhodologt.
Anour,lrNr No. I 4
,dJa-' 61''5 for Monroc
nris loxn xpplicanr
cl:rims rtrxr
a
jxzz
club in
Monroc
I\,odd
bc t
profirxblc vcnrurc.
To suppon this
clxim. rhc applicrn!
points
ou!.rhrr
Iloffoc hrs no

orher
).zz
clubs.
He
ilso
citcs
various
orher evidencc rhar
jazz
is
popular rmonS
Monroe
rciidenls. Carctul cxaminarion
of this supporring
cvidcncr, howevc.,
revclls
rhrr ir tends lilrlc
crcdiblc suDDon to tbc
. appljcant's cldm.
Fifst of all, if tbc
dcmand for z
iive
jTzz
club rn Monroc
wcrc
as
grcar
2l
rhc rpplicJnr claims,
il sccms rhir(

Montoc
would
drcadv h:rv€ one or morc
such clubs. Tbe fact rhar the
closest
juz
club
is
65 milcs awar' sugg€srs a tack
of i crcir among
Monroc-rcsidenb in a
locat
jazz
club. Since thc applicallt
has not adcqua.el],
rcsponded
to rhis concem,
his cl3im
rhar tllc
proposcd
club
vould
bc
profitabtc
ls untcnablc.
Thc
populariq'of
Monroc's annurt
jazz
f€soval aJld of ils nighrty

jazl
rldio sho*'mjght appcar
to lcnd
suppon !o rhe applicarfs dainr. Howcvcr,'
it
is
cndrcl), possible
lhat rhc varr
majoriq' of festivil
aftcndecs
arc
our-of-rown vjsiiors.
Morcovcr,
thc ruthor
providcs
no
evidcncc rhat
radio
lisrcn€rs woDld
bc irtcrcsrcd in
goinS
but ro hcar Iivc
jazz.
Ior rhar mancr,
thc radio proSram
mighr acru"Il posc
compcririon for i.bc
C-Norc club,
especielly
considc.ing

drar the prog.em ,.irs
durirg
tire cveni!8.
Nor
docs t}}c merc
facr
thar
sanld.ffel-knonn
i.::
musicians
livc in
Iloffoc lend
si8nifican!
'suppofl
rd thc applicanfs cl m. tr is cnur€iy
possible
t})ar rhqse
musjcians
pcrforr
clsewhcrc.
pcrhaps
xt
thc club localed
65 milcs away.
Ttris
would
80
a
lonS
wa_v ioward

criptaining
why
Monroc
docs
not
cunently have a
jazz
club, and ir
ivould
weakcn
thc applic"nfs
rsscnion thar
rllc C,Norc would
bc
p.olilablc.
Finxlly, t}c nationwidc
srudy showing rha! rhc averaSe
jrz
lan spcndr
S1,000 Clch
yexf
on
jazz
cnlcr]-linmenr
would
lcnd suppo.! ro rhc
W.itinq
Skllk
Jor
tb.

GF-UGIUT TBrs'
uuu.pcrc6o,n_@n
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si\6s3:.cr,::
ill
ARGUI,TENT
I'rvestir!g
PARI
6
possibiliq,
!hc :rurhor
c:rnflol
convjocinft\.
concludr
rhxl
rcducin,]l
,^lu,s
worf
shifij h)
l horrr woutd
rcducc
^lLr,s iccldcnr
,"rc.
Fionll\
i

sc.ics
of problcms
q,jrh
rhc
nr8unrcnr
i.isc
from
rl)e sc.nr
sllrisrical
inlorfnarion
on \4rjch
jr
fclics.
L
comp!.inA
rtrr
numbcr
of
lccidcnrs
xr
-^lra
xnd
pinopty,
rlrc
aurhor
f:rils ro
coosider
rha! rh€
pcr-s'orkcr
accidcn!

crre
mighr
revcat
rhar
Ajra
is
acrua
),
s:tfcr dran
panopl).,
dcpcnding
on rhc
rorat
number
of
workcrs
rt
caclr
comD?nr,.
Second.
perhrps
rccjdcnt
mle\ rr
rhc rwo
comljt.,
f"r,
,."r
oU.n-rrions.
anJ
during

orhcr vcars,
.?!lL?,s tccidcnr
mtc was
no
Arexrcr,
or cven
joB,cr.
rha,
Panopll,s
r"rc
Or pe.h.ps
panopty
is
noi rcprcscnrlrivc
of
ltdusrrial
compan;cs
gcncritt).,
and
othcr
companies.with
shoncr
work
shjfls
liavc
cven
hig}cr
accidcrr
rrrcs.
ln

shon,
sirce
t}rc irgumcnt
rclles
on
vcn,
limircd
sL:{isricxl
informadon,
I
crnnot
Llkc
thc ruthor,s
recomrncndation
h
conclusion,
rhc
ricommend.ltrion
for
cmutarirS
panop\r's
work_sh_ift
p.,rin
:j nor
-
:ll
-r-rpon:d.
Tc r!.rvincc
mc d|rlr
shoncr

vork
shifls B !li
rcducr
^lla s
J:
.rD.i
r, i
ri ;irc.
the
aurbci
-
r:t
,,-iae

cvidcnc€
rhrr work.shifr
tcngth
is rcsponsibl.
lc:
si. re
,4.i i iccic.nts.
The author
mu$ also
supply
cvidcncc
ro
suppon
h€r
fi.nrl conctusion
dlar :r

lovcr accidcn!
mrc woutd
in facl
incrersc
ovcml vorker producrivir),.
No. 22
ilr
Old
Dair-y
Stock
This
cxccrp!
from
m
invesrmenr
ncwsrclr.r
crres
I .cc€nr
srudl
h
which
80
pcrccnr
o[
rcsponctenb
ndicalcd
a dcstre
ro reducc
*tcir
consumpdon

of
hiSh,far
and
hjgb-cholcsrcrol
foods,
rhcn
poinrs
our
thar
,
Jood-
srorcs are
.wcll.srockcd
wirh
tow_far
food
producrs.
Bascd
on
rld!
cvidcncc,
rhc
ncwsl€rrcr prcdicB
a
siSoficanr
decline
j,
salcs and
Drofirs for
Old Dair_t

fOD),
,
produccr
ofd"lf).proctucLs
hjFh
i, frr ind
chotcsrcrol,
afld
aclviscs
invcsrors-not
to
own
OD
slock.
I flnd
this advice
spccious,
oo
scvcid
SfouDds,
Fiist, the
excc9r
tails ro
atsurc
mc t}|at
thc
sutvev rcsulls
accurerclr.
ren.cr rhc
dcsirci

of mosr
lonsumcrs
or rhrr thc,eslrlrs
rccLuurctv
orcOicr
consumcr
behrvior. Wirllour
cvrdencc
r_lat
rlc
rcsponaents.desircs
arc
rcprcsenBtve
of thosc
of rhe
ovc.r]l popularion
whcrc
OD
Droducls arc
sold.
ir rs hasry
to dmw
any
conctu5jons
abour
tururc tooo-UuYrn!
nabis
troo
the
sufvc),,

M6icovcr.
common
scnsc-inJorEls
mc rhet
consumcrs
dO
nor
ncccssrfily
makc
food.purch$c
dccisions
in
strjft accordance
wi*r
thcir
cxpress€d
desircs.
Thus, ?J
ir
at nds,
rhe
sLxrjsdc rhar
rhe
ncwslctrcr
circs
arnounrs
ro
scrnr
cyidcnce
Lhar

OD
sajcs ard profirs.eiU
dcclinc
in thc
Sccond.l),
rhc
fa.r
(har
low-f:r
foods ec
in lbund.anr
suppl!
in
,ood
srorcs
docs
nor
'rcccssarily
jndicarc
an incrcising
demard
Ior
low-fat
daifl.
producrs
o

diminishing
demud
for

hjgh,fai
dain,
.producrs.
Abscnt
Peldson
s
.
lvtlting
Skult
for
tb"
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T esLt
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Funhcmrorc.
rhc
ficr rh

rlrr
camings of lhc ,v.r3gc
ciMdview
sorkcr

arr comprE[ilcl!
lo\!
does nor
neccssxritv mcx,r
rtrrr
Viva-Tcch
could
minimizc lxbor
cosrs
b\. cmpjoYinF
Cmndvie$. rcsidcnrs,
ns th.
.prcsrcl€nt
sugscsrs.
lr;s
cnrtr€1r possiblc
rhrr rhis
loN avcmgc
\\,:r8c
is
aftribu!"blc
ro :r
high
pcrccnr:r8c
of
jobs
rcquirjng
towtelet
skilts. Tlris
sccnxrio

would
bc
paniculrrh
likct\.
it I hr8c ponion
of cmndvj.w.s
vorkcrs
arc rcenagcrs
and
coltc8r
srudenrs.
tn facr, thc
tow nvcrrge wagc
in
Grandvics'is tunher
evidcnce rhxr
cr.rndvje*'rcsidcnrs
do not
posscss
ihc
sons of hi8h-rcch
skills thxt would
command a
hiSher w:rgc ard
lhat
vila-Tcch
mighr
tequire amon!
iri workforcc.

fin:rl
problcm
s,ilh
rhc irFUmenr
invotvcs
Gmndfieq s
wiltinsne$
lo
fore8o
palmcnr
of
prdpim'
raxci
for rhc frsr rhree ycars.
Adnincdl),, this
evidence lends
some
mersurc
of suppon ro
the rccofiuncndation_
Howcvcr,
the presidcnt
i8norcs
rhc possib
iq'
rhar orher
ciri€s undcr considcmdon
would
bc

wilLing
to
mrkc
simitar conccssjons
or
providc
orn€r cqu.tb,
arilzctjvc
finarcial inccniives.
Thc
presidenr
a_lso ovcrlooks
thc cxpc;sc
of
prop€.ry
uxcs
ovc rrc longcr
!enn_
bckiD8 cvidencc
ro rhc conrra4,,
ir is
cnt'rch'possiblc
$xr
6crndvicqr's
propcrw-L1x
rxrcs
are
othcm,jsc
comparadvcly
hjgl xrd rhar

in the tongcr
rc|rn, Viu,Tcch's propcrty.rrri
liabiliq'wodd
be
Frear€r
in
Grindvic* rhln
in othcr
localcs. Unrit rhc
presidenr
accounrs
fo. rhcse
tpo possibilirics,
I cannor
bc
pcdua<tcd
thrr
G.rndvicw
is rhc
bcs! iocaUon
for
Vjva-Tcch
from a
propcny,E:(
sr:ndpoin!.
ln rlrc fLnrlanalysis,
l}tc
rccommend2rion
ofViva,Tcch's
president

is nor
wcl
supponed.
To srren8dren
ir,
fic
presidenr
must
prolidc
deBilcd
dcmoSnphic
cvidcnce
shovinS
lhar :r
suffici€nr nunrber
of Grrndvics.
rcsidcnts
would
bc ablc rnd
willing
ro
vork
in
Viva-Tech.s
hi8h-rccb
cnvfontnenl.
A
proper
evrluadon
ot rhe .ecornmcndarion

rcquircs
morc
infomrtion about
Gnrdvicw's propeft,v-rax
rarcs
vis-a-vis
t}losc of
othcr
localcs
undcr considcrarion
ard abour
rhe willjngncss
of ihcsc
orhcr
municiprlides
ro
proridc
rhcir
own
fulancirt or t3x
inccnrivcs ro
vjva-Tcch.
ill
Anour*rr.n
No. 42
'The
Relationship
Betwcen
Snorilg
and Weiglt

Gairr
In this argumcn!
$e spcakcr
concludes
r}rrr alry
pcrson
who
snorcs
should r'y
to cat
tess and eacrcise
more
rh]l1.rilt ,ver"gc
jrerson.
To
justit
*ris conclusioa,
rtrc
spcrkcr poinrs
ou:athar marr,v sndrcrs
awak€n
frequcntt]
during slccp-oftcn
so bncfly ihxr
thc),are
uniwarc rhar
rhcv rrc awakc_in
.
,
'

.
ordcr ro.ercb
tlcir
brer6
(a
condirion
callcd slecp apnc!) and
ai a rcsutr
'
a.c
rootrcd
during
normal
q,r]tirS
hours to excrcise.
The
sper_kcr a.lso circs
dar2 collccrcd
durinS a
rcccnr study,
suSScsring-rhrt
snorcrs :lrc
mofc likcl)
.
ro
gain -rcighr
rhan
orhcr pcoplc.
This argumcnr
is nawed

in scvcml crirical
'
rcsPccts.
Firsr, tic
spcaker provides
no
assu.:lnces
thxi thc
rcccnrly collccrcd
d.at" suggesting
a co.relrrion
be$,een snorir8 and weight
tain
arc
r/riting
Sh k
Ior
tbl
GPI/GMAT Test!
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kt
t
t.t
: h.
ttt
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r, t
I
@

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iu3-lvlciJJO
OZ
uoj
S
VSST
i]dr'\.
PAQT
6
auto-nciog
mrchanics
inrproles
it:ler
rb€
scmirxr,
so
Ni

rhat
of
cet-A$rr!
mcchin'cs.
Tt,e
J,rccrors
uFu'cnr
rer,c<
on .
.",,, ,
";;;;,;";
rs<umt-,r'ons
rnd

rs
)crcforc
un.on!incrnr_
Iusr
of.rU,
rt.r
rrrumcnr
unJirrtr
.rs5umcs
rh.r(
brcru5c
rhe p€!
rormrncc
of ?urcrrcins
mechanics
impror;cs
a,tcr
rhe
sentnnr,
so \,ilt
rt)c
pcrformancc
of rircmi
mcchxnics.
Common
scnse
rells
mc
rhar,
cvcn

LhouFh
3'rcrifl
and
ruto
mcchxnics
ser
ind
mainrcnancc
is
rar
morc
;;;,,:;HTJ,:fi:TlT:f,:JffJ
Tlrus.
i
semini.
rhxr
jmprovcs
rhc perfolnl3l1cc
of
luro
mechanics
wilt
noi
nccrssarilr
improvc
rhtl
of rrrcmi
mecnrnrcs
Sccondl),.
rbc

argumenr
?ssum€s
l
mechrnics
is
subjcc,,o
improvcmcn,
;:1'i::,
T::ff[;
;:,:;ifill
thcir
Pcrfomrarce
levcl
is
alrcady
vcn,higb
md
tha!
rhe
scminar
will
allord
*.
:r.
"o.
L.I)provemenr.
pcrhaps
Cer,^way.s
mechanics
havc

alrcady
?&cndcd
a
similar
scmirai,
or pcrhaps
rhcy
mect
rxt|]\cr
s!ffidfids
than
rhc
oncs
imposcd
on autGracing
mcchanics.
Thirdl),
rbc
arSxmcnr
conctudcs.from
t}lc
mcrc
facr
rha!
lhc
pcrfoorancc
of aurcracing
mccirajtics
improvcd
,Jtcr

rhc
scminar
that
rhc
scminsr
1v!5
rcsponsible
for
$is
improvemenr.
ltowcver,
ir is
possiblc
rhrr
somc
ou)cr
ficror,
.5uch
as
improved
ongnosrlc
rcclmolog),
or morc
stringcnr
inspccrion
requiremcnE,
was
r1c
rcason
for

rbc
improvcd
pc.forman.c.
\yi!,\our
ru1ir8
our
tircse
?ncl
othcr
su.f,
po"",t
,U.",
I i"rrrlo,
icccpr
tnc
memo
s fin:!
conclusion
rha!
cnrolung
in |hc
scminar
will
mprovc
.hc pcrformrnce
of
Gcr-AB,a1.,s
mcchanics
as weLl.
Fhl.!\',

r})c
:rrgumenr
concludes
wlrnour
tocq\rarc
evidencc
rhar
nprovcd pcrformincc
on d1e pan
of
Ger_^way.s
mcchanics
wil
resul(
in
l5catcr
cusromcr
sarisfaclion
and
$crcl
Admjr.cdry,
o,
"*
0"i"", ;;:i':.:f:'1T:E:::
:::,#X
:11t::1"
-:
o':u"
q,ir
in

a! probabturv
dccrcasc.
oLhc,.q,isc,
however,
rEprov€d
mcchanic
performancc
wilt
in all
likclihood
lavc
no
bearing
on
cusromer
saistacr'oni
in
oricr
words,
cusLomcrs
arc
unl*ctv
ro
bc aw]l.c
of
thc Icvcl
of pcdormance
of ln
alrcriJr,s
mcchrJIics

unlcss
accidcnts
occua,
I!
conclusjon,
thc
argument
is
uncor
i!.
.rhe
director
mus,
prouoc
;.1:::TffiX""J::,:.:'ff,*:
pcrformancc
of
ccr-Awal,
s ;echanics
wil
acrualy
inpro"e
as a
rcsutr
ofttc
scrruDar _pcrtl,aps-bJ
poinLirrg
our
orher
airtincs

s,hosc
mcchanics
bencfircd
IT
*.
".^I-:
The
direcror
mus{.,4rso
shoq,
a,s!ron8
causal
nol-us
Dcwcm
improied
mcchlnjc
pcrfomancc
and pro6t.
ln
ordcr
ro
bcrter
cllaharc
rhe:rgumcnq
I woutd
necd
more
jruormadonabour
Lhc
cost

of rhc
scminar
compared
to
its
o(pecrcd
bcncfiB
ano
abour
whar
facrols
orhcr
than
urc
seminal
migh!
have
bccn
rcsponsibtc
for
rhc
improved
pcrformaDcc
of .uro
riclrt
mc.harucs.
v'dtin!
Sl:nk
for
tbo

CF,E/GtrUT
T.sL\