monetary economics; an integrated approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth (2007)

Monetary Economics
An Integrated Approach to Credit,
Money, Income, Production and Wealth
Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie
Monetary Economics
From the same authors:
Wynne Godley
Industrial Pricing in the United Kingdom (with Ken Coutts and William D.
Nordhaus) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) 1978.
Macroeconomics (with Francis Cripps) (Oxford: Oxford University Press) 1983.
Marc Lavoie
Macroéconomie: Théories et controverses postkeynésiennes (Paris: Dunod) 1987.
Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis (Aldershot: Edward Elgar)
1992.
Milton Friedman et son œuvre, (co-edited with Mario Seccareccia) (Montréal:
Presses de l’Université de Montréal) 1993.
Avantage numérique, l’argent et la Ligue nationale de hockey (Hull: Vents d’Ouest)
1997.
Désavantage numérique, les francophones dans la LNH (Hull: Vents d’Ouest)
1998.
Central Banking in the Modern World: Alternative Perspectives (co-edited with
Mario Seccareccia) (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar) 2004.
Introduction to Post-Keynesian Economics (London: Palgrave/Macmillan) 2006.
Monetar y Economics
An Integrated Approach to Credit,
Money, Income, Production
and Wealth
Wynne Godley
and
Marc Lavoie
© Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie 2007

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Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published in 2007 by
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ISBN-13: 978–0–230–50055–6 hardback
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Godley, Wynne.
Monetary economics : an integrated approach to credit, money,
income, production and wealth / by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978–0–230–50055–6
ISBN-10: 0–230–50055–2
1. Money. 2. Economics – Mathematical models. I. Lavoie, M. (Marc).
II. Title.
HG221.G57 2007
332.4—dc22 2006049315
10987654321
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07
Printed and bound in Great Britain by
Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne
Contents
Notations Used in the Book ix
List of Tables xviii
List of Figures xx
Preface xxxiv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Two paradigms 1
1.2 Aspiration 4
1.3 Endeavour 9
1.4 Provenance 11
1.5 Some links with the ‘old’ Yale school 13
1.6 Links with the post-Keynesian school 16
1.7 A sketch of the book 18
A1.1 Compelling empirical failings of the neo-classical
production function 20

A1.2 Stock-flow relations and the post-Keynesians 21
2 Balance Sheets, Transaction Matrices and the Monetary Circuit 23
2.1 Coherent stock-flow accounting 23
2.2 Balance sheets or stock matrices 25
2.3 The conventional income and expenditure matrix 33
2.4 The transactions flow matrix 37
2.5 Full integration of the balance sheet and the transactions
flow matrices 43
2.6 Applications of the transactions flow matrix: the monetary
circuit 47
3 The Simplest Model with Government Money 57
3.1 Government money versus private money 57
3.2 The service economy with government money and no
portfolio choice 58
3.3 Formalizing Model SIM 61
3.4 A numerical example and the standard Keynesian multiplier 68
3.5 Steady-state solutions 71
3.6 The consumption function as a stock-flow norm 74
3.7 Expectations mistakes in a simple stock-flow model 78
3.8 Out of the steady state 83
3.9 A graphical illustration of Model SIM 88
v
vi Contents
3.10 Preliminary conclusion 91
A3.1 Equation list of Model SIM 91
A3.2 Equation list of Model SIM with expectations (SIMEX )92
A3.3 The mean lag theorem 92
A3.4 Government deficits in a growing economy 95
4 Government Money with Portfolio Choice 99
4.1 Introduction 99

4.2 The matrices of Model PC 99
4.3 The equations of Model PC 102
4.4 Expectations in Model PC 107
4.5 The steady-state solutions of the model 111
4.6 Implications of changes in parameter values on temporary
and steady-state income 116
4.7 A government target for the debt to income ratio 124
A4.1 Equation list of Model PC 126
A4.2 Equation list of Model PC with expectations (PCEX) 126
A4.3 Endogenous money 127
A4.4 Alternative mainstream closures 129
5 Long-term Bonds, Capital Gains and Liquidity Preference 131
5.1 New features of Model LP 131
5.2 The value of a perpetuity 131
5.3 The expected rate of return on long-term bonds 132
5.4 Assessing capital gains algebraically and geometrically 134
5.5 Matrices with long-term bonds 136
5.6 Equations of Model LP 137
5.7 The short-run and long-run impact of higher interest rates
on real demand 150
5.8 The effect of household liquidity preference on long rates 153
5.9 Making government expenditures endogenous 160
A5.1 Equations of Model LP 165
A5.2 The liquidity trap 167
A5.3 An alternative, more orthodox, depiction of the bond market 168
6 Introducing the Open Economy 170
6.1 A coherent framework 170
6.2 The matrices of a two-region economy 171
6.3 The equations of a two-region economy 173
6.4 The steady-state solutions of Model REG 176

6.5 Experiments with Model REG 180
6.6 The matrices of a two-country economy 187
6.7 The equations of a two-country economy 191
6.8 Rejecting the Mundell–Fleming approach and adopting
the compensation approach 194
Contents vii
6.9 Adjustment mechanisms 201
6.10 Concluding thoughts 207
A6.1 Equations of Model REG 209
A6.2 Equations of Model OPEN 211
A6.3 Historical and empirical evidence concerning the
compensation principle 213
A6.4 Other institutional frameworks: the currency board 214
A6.5 How to easily build an open model 215
7 A Simple Model with Private Bank Money 217
7.1 Private money and bank loans 217
7.2 The matrices of the simplest model with private money 218
7.3 The equations of Model BMW 222
7.4 The steady state 227
7.5 Out-of-equilibrium values and stability analysis 233
7.6 The role of the rate of interest 240
7.7 A look for ward 247
A7.1 The equations of Model BMW 247
8 Time, Inventories, Profits and Pricing 250
8.1 The role of time 250
8.2 The measure of profits 252
8.3 Pricing 263
8.4 Numerical examples of fluctuating inventories 276
A8.1 A Numerical example of inventory accounting 278
9 A Model with Private Bank Money, Inventories and Inflation 284

9.1 Introduction 284
9.2 The equations of Model DIS 285
9.3 Additional properties of the model 293
9.4 Steady-state values of Model DIS 295
9.5 Dealing with inflation in (a slightly modified) Model DIS 300
A9.1 Equation list of Model DIS 308
A9.2 The peculiar role of given expectations 310
A9.3 Equation list of Model DISINF 312
10 A Model with both Inside and Outside Money 314
10.1 A model with active commercial banks 314
10.2 Balance sheet and transaction matrices 315
10.3 Producing firms 318
10.4 Households 322
10.5 The government sector and the central bank 331
10.6 The commercial banking system 333
10.7 Making it all sing with simulations 342
10.8 Conclusion 374
viii Contents
A10.1 Overdraft banking systems 374
A10.2 Arithmetical example of a change in portfolio preference 376
11 A Growth Model Prototype 378
11.1 Prolegomena 378
11.2 Balance sheet, revaluation and transactions-flow matrices 379
11.3 Decisions taken by firms 383
11.4 Decisions taken by households 392
11.5 The public sector 397
11.6 The banking sector 399
11.7 Fiscal and monetary policies 404
11.8 Households in the model as a whole 422
11.9 Financial decisions in the model as a whole 435

11.10 A concluding recap 441
12 A More Advanced Open Economy Model 445
12.1 Introduction 445
12.2 The two matrices 446
12.3 Equations of the generic model 450
12.4 Alternative closures 462
12.5 Experiments with the main fixed exchange rate closure 466
12.6 Experiments with alternative fixed exchange rate closures 472
12.7 Experiments with the flexible exchange rate closure 478
12.8 Lessons to be drawn 487
A12.1 A fundamental and useful open-economy flow-of-funds
identity 490
A12.2 An alternative flexible exchange rate closure 492
13 General Conclusion 493
13.1 Unique features of the models presented here 493
13.2 A summary 499
References 501
Index 514
Notations Used in the Book
A
d
Advances demanded by private banks
A, A
s
Central bank advances made to private banks
add Random change in liquidity preference
add
bL
Spread of bond rate over the bill rate
add

l
Spread of bill rate over the deposit rate
add
2
Random change in government expenditures
AF Amortization funds
B
$
£
Bills held by £ households but issued by the
$ country
B
£
$
Bills held by $ households but issued by the £ country
B
$
cb£
Bills held by the £ central bank but issued by the
$ country (foreign reserves of country £)
B
$
cb$
Bills held by $ central bank and issued by the
$ country
B
£
cb£
Bills held by the £ central bank and issued by the
£ country

B
d
, B
hd
Bills demanded by households (ex ante)
B
b
, B
bd
Bills actually demanded by banks
B
bdN
Bills notionally demanded by banks
B
cb
Bills held by the central bank
B
h
, B
hh
Bills held by households
B
s
Treasury bills supplied by government
bandB, bandT Lower and upper range of the flat Phillips curve
BL
d
Long-term bonds demanded by households
BL
h

Long-term bonds held by households
BL
s
Long-term bonds issued by government
BLR Bank liquidity ratio, actual or gross value
BLR
N
Bank liquidity ratio, net of advances
BLPR Banks liquidity pressure ratio
bot Bottom of an acceptable range
botpm Bottom of the acceptable range of the profitability
margin of banks
ix
x Notations Used in the Book
BP Balance of payments
BPM Bank profit margin
BUR Relative burden of interest payments on loans taken by
households
c, c
d
Consumption goods demand by households, in real
terms
C
d
Consumption goods demand by households, in nominal
terms
C, C
s
Consumption goods supply by firms, in nominal terms
CAB Current account balance

CAR Realized capital adequacy ratio of banks
CF Cash flow of firms
CG Capital gains
CG
e
Expected capital gains of the current period
DA Depreciation allowance
DEF Government deficit
DS Nominal domestic sales
ds Real domestic sales
dxr
e
Expected change in the exchange rate
E, E
f
, E
b
Value of equities, issued by firms, issued by banks
e
b
Number of equities supplied by banks
e
d
Number of firms’ equities demanded by households
e
s
, e
f
Number of equities supplied by firms
ER Employment rate (the complement of the

unemployment rate)
ERr
bL
Expected rate of return on long-term bonds
F Sum of bank and firm profits
F, F
f
Realized entrepreneurial profits of production firms
F
b
Realized profits of banks
F
T
b
Target profits of banks
F
cb
Profits of central bank
F
e
Expected entrepreneurial profits of firms
F
f
Realized entrepreneurial profits of production firms
F
e
f
Expected profits of firms
F
T

f
Target entrepreneurial profits of production firms
F
T
Total profits of firms, inclusive of interest payments on
inventories
F
nipa
Profits, as measured by national accountants
FD Business dividends
Notations Used in the Book xi
FD
b
Dividends of banks
FD
f
Realized dividends of production firms
FU Business retained earnings
FU
b
Retained earnings of banks
FU
T
b
Target retained earnings of banks
FU
f
Realized retained earnings of production firms
FU
T

f
Target retained earnings of production firms
fs Real fiscal stance
g Pure government expenditures in real terms
g

Real total government expenditures (inflation
accounted)
G Pure government expenditures in nominal terms
G
s
, G
d
Services supplied to and demanded by government
G
NT
Total government expenditures, including interest
payments net of taxes
gd Real government debt
G
T
Total government expenditures, inclusive of
interest payments on debt
G
TD
Total domestic government expenditures
GD Government debt (public debt), in nominal terms
GL Gross flow of new loans made to the household
sector
gr Steady-state growth rate of the economy

gr
k
Growth rate of net capital accumulation
gr
g
Growth rate of real pure government expenditures
gr
pr
Growth rate of trend labour productivity
H
bd
Reserves demanded by banks
H
b
, H
bs
Reserves supplied to banks by the central bank
H
d
, H
hd
Cash money demanded by households
H
d
, H
h
, H
hh
Cash money held by households
H

g
Cash money held by government
H
hs
Cash money supplied to households by the central
bank
H, H
s
High-powered money, or cash money, supplied by
the central bank
HC Historic costs
HC
e
Expected historic costs
HUC Historic unit cost
HUC
e
Expected historic unit cost
HWC Historic wage cost
xii Notations Used in the Book
i
d
New fixed capital goods demanded by firms
(investment flow), in real terms
I
d
New fixed capital goods demanded by firms
(investment flow), in nominal terms
I
h

Residential investment of households
I
s
, I, I
f
New fixed capital goods supplied by firms,
in nominal terms
in Realized stock of inventories, in real terms
in
e
Short-run target level (expected level) of
inventories, in real terms
in
T
Long-run target level of inventories, in real
terms
IN Realized stock of inventories, at current unit
costs
im Real imports
IM Imports, in nominal terms
IM
T
Total imports, inclusive of interest payments
made abroad
INT
b
Interest payments paid by banks
INT
f
Interest payments paid by firms

INT
h
Interest payments received by households
k, k
f
, k
b
Fixed capital stock, in real terms (number of
machines), of firms, of banks
K, K
f
, K
b
, K
h
Value of fixed capital stock, in nominal
terms, of firms, of banks, of households
K
T
Targeted capital stock
KABOSA Capital account balance, inclusive of the
official settlements account
KAB Capital account balance, excluding official
transactions
L
d
, L
fd
Loans demanded by firms from banks
L, L

s
, L
fs
, L
f
Loans supplied by banks to firms
L
g
Loans to government sector
L
hd
Loans demanded by households from banks
L
hs
, L
h
Loans supplied by banks to households
M, M
h
, M
hh
Money deposits actually held by households
M1, M1
h
Checking account money deposits held by
households
Notations Used in the Book xiii
M1
d
Checking account money deposits demanded

M1
s
Checking account money deposits supplied
M2, M2
h
Time or term money deposits held by
households
M2
d
Time or term money deposits demanded
M2
s
Time or term money deposits supplied
M1
hN
The notional amount of bank checking
account deposits that households would hold
M
d
, M
hd
Money deposits demanded by households
M
f
Financial assets of firms
M
g
Bank deposits of government
m
h

Real money balances held by households
M
s
Money supplied by the government (ch. 3) or
the banks
ML Mean lag
N, N
d
Demand for labour
N
fe
The full-employment labour force
N
e
s
Expected supply of labour
N
s
Supply of labour
N
T
Target level of employment by firms
NAFA Net accumulation of financial assets by the
household sector (financial saving)
NCAR Normal capital adequacy ratio of banks
(Cooke ratio)
NHUC Normal historic unit cost
NL Net flow of new loans made to the household
sector
nl Real amount of new personal loans

npl Proportion of non-performing loans
npl
e
Expected proportion of non-performing loans
NPL Amount of non-performing loans (defaulting
loans of firms)
NUC Normal unit costs
NW, NW
h
, NW
f
,
NW
g
, NW
b
Net worth (of households, firms,
government, banks)
or Gold units
OF
b
Own funds (equity capital) of banks
OF
e
b
Short-run own funds target of banks
OF
T
b
Long-run own funds target of banks

xiv Notations Used in the Book
p Price level
p
bL
Price of long-term bonds (perpetuities)
p
e
bL
Expected price of long-term bonds in the next
period
p
ds
Price index of domestic sales
p
e
, p
ef
Price of firms’ equities
p
eb
Price of banks’ equities
p
g
Price of gold
p
k
Price of fixed capital goods
p
m
Price index of imports

p
s
Price index of sales
p
x
Price index of exports
p
y
GDP deflator
PE Price-earnings ratio
PER
bL
Pure expected rate of return on long-term bonds
pr Labour productivity, or trend labour productivity
PSBR Public sector borrowing requirement (government
deficit)
q The valuation ratio of firms (Tobin’s q ratio)
REP Repayment by household borrowers (payment on
principal)
r, r
b
Rate of interest on bills
r, r
e
Actual and expected yield on perpetuities
(Appendix 5.2)
r
a
Rate of interest on central bank advances
r

bL
Yield on long-term bonds
r
k
Dividend yield
r
l
Rate of interest on bank loans
r
lN
Normal rate of interest on bank loans that firms use
to set the markup
r
m
Rate of interest on deposits
rr
b
Real rate of interest on bills
rr
T
b
Target real bill rate
Rr
bl
Rate of return on bonds
rr
bL
Real yield on long-term bonds
rr
c

Real rate of interest on bank loans, deflated by the
cost of inventories index
rr
l
Real rate of interest on bank loans
rr
m
Real rate of interest on term deposits
Notations Used in the Book xv
˘
r Average rate of interest payable on overall
government debt
Ra Random number modifying expectations
s Realized real sales (in widgets)
s
e
Expected real sales
S Sales in nominal terms
S
e
Expected sales in nominal terms
SA Stock appreciation (inventory valuation
adjustment IVA)
SAV
h
, SAV
f
,
SAV
g

, SAV
Household, business, government, and overall
saving
T Taxes
T
h
Income taxes of households
T
f
Indirect taxes on firms
T
d
Taxes demanded by government
T
s
, T
e
s
Taxes supplied or expected to be supplied
top Top of a target range
toppm Top of a target range of bank profitability
TP Target proportion of bonds in national debt held
by households
UC Unit cost of production
v Wealth of households in real terms
V, V
h
Wealth of households, in nominal terms
V
T

Target level of household wealth
V
e
Expected wealth of households, in nominal terms
V
f
Wealth of firms, in nominal terms
V
fma
Wealth of households devoted to financial market
assets
V
g
Wealth of government, in nominal terms
V
nc
Wealth of households, net of cash
V
e
nc
Expected wealth of households, net of cash
W Nominal wage rate
WB The wage bill, in nominal terms
wb Real wage bill
x Real exports
X Exports in nominal terms
X
T
Total exports, inclusive of interest payments
received from abroad

xvi Notations Used in the Book
xr Exchange rate
xr
$
Dollar exchange rate: value of one dollar expressed
in pounds
xr
£
Sterling exchange rate: value of one pound sterling
expressed in dollars
xr
e
Expected level of the future exchange rate
Y National income, in nominal terms
Y
fc
Full-capacity output
Y
T
National income plus government debt service
YD Disposable income of households
YD
e
Expected disposable income
YD
hs
Haig–Simons nominal disposable income
(including all capital gains)
YD
r

Regular disposable income
YD
e
r
Expected regular disposable income
YP Nominal personal income
y Real output
yd Deflated regular income
yd
hs
Haig–Simons realised real disposable income
yd
e
Expected real disposable income
yd
hse
Haig–Simons expected real disposable income
yd
r
Realized real regular disposable income
yd
e
r
Expected real regular disposable income
z Dichotomic variable or some numerical parameter
zm Proportional response of the money deposit rate
following a change in the bill rate
Greek Letters
α (alpha) Consumption parameters
α

0
Autonomous consumption
α
1
Propensity to consume out of regular income
α
2
Propensity to consume out of past wealth
α
3
Implicit target wealth to disposable income ratio of
households
α
4
Long-run government debt to GDP ratio
β (beta) Reaction parameter related to expectations
γ (gamma) Partial adjustment function that applies to
inventories and fixed capital
δ (delta) Rate of depreciation on fixed capital
δ
rep
Rate of amortization on personal loans
ε (epsilon) Another reaction parameter related to expectations
Export parameter of a country
Notations Used in the Book xvii
ζ (zeta) Reaction parameter related to changes in
interest rates
η (eta) New loans to personal income ratio
θ (theta) Personal income tax rate
θ


Taxes to GDP ratio
ι (iota) Parameter tied to the impact of interest rates
on the propensity to consume
κ (kappa) Target fixed capital to output ratio
λ (lambda) Reaction parameters in the portfolio choice of
households
λ
c
Cash to consumption ratio
μ (mu) Import propensity or parameter
v (nu) Parameter tied to import prices
ξ (xi) Reaction parameter tied to changes in interest
rates
o (omicron)
π (pi) Price inflation rate
π
c
Inflation rate of unit costs
ρ (ro) Compulsory reserve ratios on bank deposits
σ (sigma) Various measures of inventories to output (or
sales) ratio
σ
s
Realized (past period) inventories to sales
ratio
σ
se
Expected (past period) inventories to sales
ratio

σ
N
Normal (past period) inventories to sales ratio
σ
T
Target (current) inventories to sales ratio
τ (tau) Sales tax rate
υ (upsilon) Parameter tied to export prices
ϕ (phi) Costing margin in pricing
ϕ
T
Ideal costing margin
ϕ

/(1 + ϕ

) Realized share of entrepreneurial profits in
sales
χ (chi) Weight of conviction in expected bond prices
ψ (psi) Target retained earnings to lagged investment
ratio
ω (omega) Real wage rate
ω
T
Real wage target
 (OMEGA) Reaction parameters related to real wage
targeting
(hebrew letter) = p/p (nearly price inflation, but not quite)
$ dollar
£ pound sterling

List of Tables
1.1 Standard textbook simplified national income matrix 5
1.2 Transactions-flow matrix 7
1.3 Balance-sheet matrix 8
1.4 Suggested reading sequence 20
2.1 Household balance sheet 26
2.2 Balance sheet of production firms at market prices, with
equities as a liability 28
2.3 Balance sheet of production firms at market prices, without
equities as a liability 31
2.4 A simplified sectoral balance sheet matrix 32
2.5 Conventional Income and expenditure matrix 33
2.6 Transactions-flow matrix 39
2.7 Full-integration matrix 44
2.8A First step of the monetary circuit with private money 48
2.8B The second step of the monetary circuit with private money 49
2.9A The first step of government expenditures financed by
central bank money 52
2.9B The second step of government expenditures financed by
central bank money 52
2.9C The third step of government expenditures financed by
central bank money 53
2.10A The first step of government expenditures financed by
private money 54
2.10B The third step of government expenditures financed by
private money 54
2.11A First step of government expenditures in overdraft system 55
2.11B Second step of government expenditures in overdraft system 55
3.1 Balance sheet of Model SIM 59
3.2 Accounting (transactions) matrix for Model SIM 60

3.3 Behavioural (transactions) matrix for Model SIM 62
3.4 The impact of $20 of government expenditures, with perfect
foresight 69
3.5 Behavioural (transactions) matrix for Model SIM, with
mistaken expectations 80
3.6 The impact of $20 of government expenditures, with
mistaken expectations 81
4.1 Balance sheet of Model PC 100
4.2 Transactions-flow matrix of Model PC 101
5.1 Balance sheet of Model LP 137
xviii
List of Tables xix
5.2 Transactions-flow matrix of Model LP 138
5.3 Integration of household flow and stock accounts, within
Model LP 139
A5.1 Changes required to achieve an alternative orthodox
Liquidity Preference model (LPNEO) 169
6.1 Balance sheet of two-region economy (Model REG) 171
6.2 Transactions-flow matrix of two-region economy (Model REG) 172
6.3 Balance sheet of two-country economy (Model OPEN) 188
6.4 Transactions-flow matrix of two-country economy (Model
OPEN) 190
6.5 First-period effect of the jump in imports on the balance
sheet of the South central bank 200
7.1 Balance sheet of Model BMW 219
7.2 The accounting transactions-flow matrix of Model BMW 220
7.3 The behavioural transactions matrix of Model BMW 221
7.4 Stability conditions 237
8.1 The operations of production firms in a simplified setting 253
8.2 Starting from scratch: all produced goods enter inventories 254

8.3 A numerical example of varying sales, without inflation 277
8.4 A numerical example of varying sales, with cost inflation 278
A8.1 A numerical example with inventories 279
A8.2 A numerical example of the national accounts 282
9.1 Balance sheet of Model DIS 285
9.2 The transactions-flow matrix of Model DIS 285
10.1 The balance sheet of Model INSOUT 315
10.2 Transactions matrix of Model INSOUT 316
A10.1 Arithmetical example of a change in portfolio preference 376
11.1 The balance sheet of Model GROWTH 379
11.2 Revaluation matrix of Model GROWTH: Changes in assets
arising from revaluation gains 380
11.3 Transactions matrix of Model GROWTH 382
12.1 Balance sheets of the two economies 447
12.2 Transactions-flow matrix of the two economies 449
List of Figures
2.1 Total internal funds (including IVA) to gross investment ratio,
USA, 1946–2005 35
3.1 Impact on national income Y and the steady state solution
Y
∗
, following a permanent increase in government
expenditures (G = 5) 72
3.2 Disposable income and consumption starting from scratch
(Table 3.4) 73
3.3 Wealth change and wealth level, starting from scratch
(Table 3.4) 75
3.4 Evolution of wealth, target wealth, consumption and
disposable income following an increase in government
expenditures (G = 5) – Model SIM.76

3.5 Disposable income and expected disposable income starting
from scratch with delayed expectations (Table 3.6) – Model
SIMEX 82
3.6 Impact on national income Y and the steady state solution
Y
∗
, following an increase in government expenditures
(G = 5), when expected disposable income remains fixed 84
3.7 Evolution of wealth, consumption and disposable income
following an increase in government expenditures (G = 5),
when expected disposable income remains fully fixed 84
3.8 Evolution of consumption, disposable income and wealth
following an increase in the propensity to consume out of
current income (α
1
moves from 0.6 to 0.7) 86
3.9 The stability of the dynamic process 88
3.10 Temporary versus stationary equilibria 89
A3.1 The mean lag theorem: speed at which the economy adjusts 94
A3.2 Adjustment of national income on different assumptions
about the marginal propensity to consume out of current
income (MPC), for a given target wealth to disposable
income ratio 95
A3.3 The transition from a stationary to a growing economy:
impact on the government debt to GDP ratio (continuous
curve) and on the government deficit to GDP ratio (dotted
curve) 97
A3.4 Discrepancy between the target wealth to income ratio and
the realized wealth to income ratio with economic growth 98
4.1 Money demand and held money balances, when the

economy is subjected to random shock 110
xx
List of Figures xxi
4.2 Changes in money demand and in money balances held (first
differences), when the economy is subjected to random shocks 110
4.3 Evolution of the shares of bills and money balances in the
portfolio of households, following an increase of 100 points
in the rate of interest on bills 112
4.4 Evolution of disposable income and household consumption
following an increase of 100 points in the rate of interest
on bills 113
4.5 Rise and fall of national income (GDP) following an increase
in the propensity to consume out of expected disposable
income (α
1
) 118
4.6 Evolution of consumption, expected disposable income and
lagged wealth, following an increase in the propensity to
consume out of expected disposable income (α
1
) 119
4.7 Short-run effect of an increase in the interest rate 120
4.8 Short-run effect of a fall in the propensity to consume 121
4.9 Evolution of GDP, disposable income, consumption and
wealth, following an increase of 100 points in the rate of
interest on bills, in Model PCEX2 where the propensity to
consume reacts negatively to higher interest rates 123
4.10 Evolution of tax revenues and government expenditures
including net debt servicing, following an increase of 100
points in the rate of interest on bills, in Model PCEX2 where

the propensity to consume reacts negatively to higher
interest rates 123
A4.1 Evolution of the rate of interest on bills, following a step
decrease in the amount of Treasury bills held by the central
bank (Model PCNEO) 129
5.1 The Ostergaard diagram 135
5.2 Evolution of the wealth to disposable income ratio, following
an increase in both the short-term and long-term interest
rates, with Model LP1 152
5.3 Evolution of household consumption and disposable income,
following an increase in both the short-term and long-term
interest rates, with Model LP1 152
5.4 Evolution of the bonds to wealth ratio and the bills to wealth
ratio, following an increase from 3% to 4% in the short-term
interest rate, while the long-term interest rate moves from 5%
to 6.67%, with Model LP1 153
5.5 Evolution of the long-term interest rate (the bond yield),
following an increase in the short-term interest rate (the bill
rate), as a result of the response of the central bank and the
Treasury, with Model LP2 156
xxii List of Figures
5.6 Evolution of the target proportion (TP), that is the share of
bonds in the government debt held by households, following
an increase in the short-term interest rate (the bill rate) and
the response of the central bank and of the Treasury, with
Model LP2 156
5.7 Evolution of the long-term interest rate, following an
anticipated fall in the price of bonds, as a consequence of the
response of the central bank and of the Treasury, with Model
LP2 157

5.8 Evolution of the expected and actual bond prices, following
an anticipated fall in the price of bonds, as a consequence of
the response of the central bank and of the Treasury, with
Model LP2 158
5.9 Evolution of the target proportion (TP), that is the share of
bonds in the government debt held by households, following
an anticipated fall in the price of bonds, as a consequence of
the response of the central bank and of the Treasury, with
Model LP2 158
5.10 Evolution of national income (GDP), following a sharp
decrease in the propensity to consume out of current income,
with Model LP1 163
5.11 Evolution of national income (GDP), following a sharp
decrease in the propensity to consume out of current income,
with Model LP3 163
5.12 Evolution of pure government expenditures and of the
government deficit to national income ratio (the PSBR to
GDP ratio), following a sharp decrease in the propensity to
consume out of current income, with Model LP3 164
6.1 Evolution of GDP in the North and the South regions,
following an increase in the propensity to import of the
South region 181
6.2 Evolution of the balances of the South region – net
acquisition of financial assets by the household sector,
government budget balance, trade balance – following an
increase in the propensity to import of the South region 182
6.3 Evolution of GDP in the South and the North regions,
following an increase in the government expenditures in the
South region 184
6.4 Evolution of the balances of the South region – net

acquisition of financial assets by the household sector,
government budget balance, trade balance – following an
increase in the government expenditures in the South region 184
6.5 Evolution of GDP in the North and South regions, following
an increase in the propensity to save of South region
households 185
List of Figures xxiii
6.6 Evolution of the balances of the South region – net
acquisition of financial assets by the household sector,
government budget balance, trade balance – following an
increase in the propensity to save of South region
households 186
6.7 Evolution of the balances of the South region – net
acquisition of financial assets by the household sector,
government budget balance, trade balance – following a
decrease in the liquidity preference of South region households 187
6.8 Evolution of GDP in the North and in the South countries,
following an increase in the South propensity to import 194
6.9 Evolution of the balances of the South country – net
acquisition of financial assets by the household sector,
government budget balance, trade balance – following an
increase in the South propensity to import 195
6.10 Evolution of the three components of the balance sheet of the
South central bank – gold reserves, domestic Treasury bills
and money – following an increase in the South propensity to
import 198
6.11 Evolution of the components of the balance sheet of the
South central bank, following an increase in the South
propensity to consume out of current income 201
6.12 Evolution of the balances of the South country – net

acquisition of financial assets by the household sector,
government budget balance, trade balance – following an
increase in the South propensity to import, with fiscal policy
reacting to changes in gold reserves 204
6.13 Evolution of GDP in the South and the North countries,
following an increase in the South propensity to consume,
with fiscal policy reacting to changes in gold reservess 204
6.14 Evolution of interest rates, following an increase in the South
propensity to import, with monetary rules based on changes
in gold reser ves 206
6.15 Evolution of the trade accounts and government balances of
both countries, following an increase in the South propensity
to import, with monetary rules based on changes in gold
reserves 207
6.16 Evolution of interest rates, following an increase in the South
propensity to import, with interest rates acting on
propensities to consume and reacting to changes in gold
reserves 208
6.17 Evolution of trade accounts and government balances,
following an increase in the South propensity to import, with
interest rates acting on propensities to consume and reacting
to changes in gold reserves 208
xxiv List of Figures
7.1 Evolution of household disposable income and consumption,
following an increase in autonomous consumption
expenditures, in Model BMW 231
7.2 Evolution of gross investment and disposable investment,
following an increase in autonomous consumption
expenditures, in Model BMW 231
7.3 Evolution of household disposable income and consumption,

following an increase in the propensity to save out of
disposable income, in Model BMW 232
7.4 Evolution of the output to capital ratio (Y/K
−1
), following an
increase in the propensity to save out of disposable income,
in Model BMW 240
7.5 Evolution of the real wage rate (W), following an increase in
the propensity to save out of disposable income, in Model BMW 242
7.6 The relationship between the real wage and the interest rate
on loans 242
7.7 The maximum capital to output ratio that can be attained
during the transition, for a given interest rate on loans 243
7.8 Evolution of Gross Domestic Income (Y), following an
increase in the interest rate, in Model BMWK 247
8.1 Evolution of price inflation and the inventories to expected
sales ratio, following a decrease in autonomous demand 269
9.1 Evolution of (Haig–Simons) real disposable income and of
real consumption, following a one-shot increase in the
costing margin 296
9.2 Evolution of (Haig–Simons) real disposable income and of
real consumption, following an increase in the target
inventories to sales ratio 299
9.3 Evolution of the desired increase in physical inventories and
of the change in realized inventories, following an increase in
the target inventories to sales ratio 299
9.4 Evolution of (Haig–Simons) real disposable income and of
real consumption, following an increase in the rate of
inflation, in a variant where households are blind to the
capital losses inflicted by price inflation 306

9.5 Evolution of real wealth, following an increase in the rate of
inflation, in a variant where households are blind to the
capital losses inflicted by price inflation 306
9.6 Evolution of the rate of price inflation, following a one-shot
increase in the target real wage of workers 307
A9.1 Evolution of real output and real sales following a permanent
upward shift in the level of expected real sales 311
A9.2 Convergence of the overestimate of real sales with the desired
reduction in physical inventories following a permanent
upward shift in the level of expected sales 311