effective management decision making

Ian Pownall
Effective Management Decision
Making
An Introduction
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2

Ian Pownall
Efective Management Decision Making
An Introduction
Download free eBooks at bookboon.com
3

Efective Management Decision Making: An Introduction
© 2012 Ian Pownall &
bookboon.com
ISBN 978-87-403-0120-5
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Efective Management Decision Making
4
Contents
Contents
Introduction 9
Chapter 1 10
1.1 Eective Management Decision Making: Introduction 10
1.2 e Duality of Decision Making? 10
1.3 Types of Business and Management Decisions 14
1.4 Who is involved in Decision Making?- e Decision Body 17
1.5 e three phased model 26

1.6 Summary 27
1.7 Key terms and glossary 27
Chapter 2 29
2.1 Developing rational models with qualitative methods and analysis: Data forecasting 29
2.2 Simple Averaging Forecasting 30
2.3 Moving Averages 32
2.4 Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting 35
2.5 Errors, accuracy and condence 41
2.6 Causal forecasting (explanatory forecasting) 43
2.7 Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve tting 60
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Efective Management Decision Making
5
Contents

2.8 Multiple regression and partial regression analysis 71
2.9 Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality 73
2.10 Summary 83
2.11 Key Terms and glossary 83
Chapter 3 100
3.1 Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities 100
3.2 e Decision tree – a map of the solution set 102
3.3 Decision Analysis 105
3.4 More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values (EMVs) 112
3.5 Revising problem information – Bayes eorem 117
3.6 e Value of Sample and Perfect Information 122
3.7 Summary 125
3.8 Key Terms and glossary 126
3.9 Chapter closing question 127
Chapter 4 129
4.1 Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis:
Distribution Functions and Queuing eory 129
4.2 e mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables 129
4.3 e discrete distribution – the binomial function 132
4.4 Extending binomial number sequences 137
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