Impacts of the safe routes to school program on walking and cycling

Impacts of the Safe Routes to School
Program on Walking and Bicycling
Noreen McDonald
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
1


Outline
• Children’s Travel
• Impacts of the Safe Routes to School Program
• Work @ ITS

2


Children’s Travel

3


25%

of the population
Source: American Factfinder

4


33%

of households

Source: American Factfinder

5


20%

of vehicle trips
Source: National Household Travel Survey

6


Why do we need to understand
children’s travel?
Predicting Adult
Travel
Infrastructure
Investments
Physical Activity
Opportunities
7


Safe Routes to School Program Impacts

8


Shift to Automobility

US Mode to School, 5-18 year olds

60

Auto

50

40

30

20

10

0
1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

School
Bus
Walk/
Bike
Transit

2010

9
Source: McDonald, et al. 2011. AJPM 41(2): 146-151.


SRTS Goals
• “enable and encourage children to walk and
bicycle to school”
• “make bicycling and walking to school a safer
and more appealing transportation
alternatives”

10


SRTS by the Numbers

$1.2

Billion
Funding

Source: McDonald, et al. 2013. AJPM 45(4): 401-406.

1 in 5
Schools
11


Research Question
• Do SRTS programs affect the proportion of
children walking and bicycling to school?

12


Research Design
Randomized
Controlled Trial

Quasiexperimental
• 4 states
• 801 schools
• 2007-2012

13


Approach

SRTS
Interventions

Neighborhood
Characteristics

yit  f SRTSit , X it , Z i , Dt 
Proportion Walking
and Bicycling to School

School
Characteristics

Time
Period
14


Data
Walking and
Biking to School
• Administrative
Data
• Student Report
• Parent Report

15

Source: National Center for Safe Routes to School

16


Data
Walking and
Biking to School
SRTS
Interventions
• 4Es
• Engineering
• Education,
Encouragement
• Enforcement

17


Data: Measuring SRTS
Step Function
%
Walk
Bike

Linear Function
%
Walk
Bike

SRTS

Time

Presence
(1/0)

Combined
%
Walk
Bike

SRTS

Time

Number of
Years

SRTS

Time

Presence
+
Number of
Years
18

Data
Walking and
Biking to School
SRTS
Interventions

School and
Neighborhood

• US Dept of Education
• Census
19
• WalkScore


Methods: Functional Form
Fractional Logit
exp( X )
Y
1  exp( X )

+

-

• Predictions inside (0,1)
• 0&1
• Marginal effects
• Unbalanced panel

Source: Papke and Wooldridge, 2008; Papke and Wooldridge, 1996

20


Results

21


Walking and Biking to School
30%
20%
10%
0%
Before
SRTS
Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).

0.1-1.0
years

1.1-2.0
years

2.1-3.0
years

3.1-4.0
years

After SRTS

4.1-5.0
years

>5.0
years
22


Results: SRTS Program Impacts
Proportion Walk/Bike
-2

Education & Presence
Encouragement # of Years
Presence

Enforcement # of Years
Engineering

Presence

# of Years -1

Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).

0

2

4

0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2

3.2
23


Results: SRTS Program Impacts
Proportion Walk/Bike
-2

Education & Presence
Encouragement # of Years
Presence

Enforcement # of Years
Engineering

Presence

# of Years -1

Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).

0

2

4

Education and
Encouragement

0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2

3.2

• 0.9 point increase
per year
• Over 5 years, a
relative increase
of 25%
24


Results: SRTS Program Impacts
Proportion Walk/Bike
-2

Education & Presence
Encouragement # of Years

Presence

Enforcement # of Years
Engineering

Presence

# of Years -1

Source: McDonald, et al. 2015. JAPA 80(2).

0

2

4

0.8
0.9
1.2
1.2

3.2
25