Will it Ever Really Count?
Prof Greg Marsden
Institute for Transport Studies
Sustainable Development and
Sustainable Transportation
Sustainable Development and
Sustainable Transportation
Global Market
National
Economic System
Urban System
Telecommunications
Energy/Power
Water and Sewage
Transportation
System
System
System
System
Institutional
Infrastructure
System Users/
Transportation
Intermodal
Structure
System
Stakeholders
Modes
Connections
Transit Network
Highway Network
Non-motorized
Network
Land Use
Airway Network
Source: Adapted from Meyer
Arterials
Collectors
Local
and Miller (2001, p. 91).
Sustainable Development and
Sustainable Transportation
ECOSYSTEM
Production
Solar
Energy
Raw
Materials
Industrial
Communication
Transportation
Heat
Waste
Energy
Physical
Systems
Recycled
Materials
Other …
Consumption
Source: Adapted from Daly
(1991)
Sustainable Development and
Sustainable Transportation
“There can be no sustainable development
without sustainable transportation. It is an
essential component not only because transportation is a
prerequisite to development in general but also because
transportation, especially our use of motorized vehicles,
contributes substantially to a wide range of
environmental problems, including energy waste, global
warming, degradation of air and water, noise, ecosystem
loss and fragmentation, and desecration of the
landscape. Our nation’s environmental quality will be
sustainable only if we pursue transportation in a
sustainable way” (Benfield and Replogle 2002, p. 647).
Example Impacts
Economic
• Costs of transport to
customers/consumers
•Time loss in traffic/ Congestion
• Costs relating to accidents
•Transportation facility
construction, maintenance and
disposal costs
•Transportation-related health
costs
•Depletion of non-renewable
resources and energy supplies
Environmental
• Air pollution
• Noise pollution
• Vibration
• Light pollution
• Visual intrusion
• Water pollution
• Consumption of land/urban
sprawl
• Release of toxic/hazardous
substances
• Solid waste
• Disruption of ecosystems and
habitats
• Hydrologic impacts
• Introduction of exotic species
• Depletion of the ozone layer
• Global climate change
Social
• Mobility
• Accessibility
• Accidents
• Obesity
• Barriers for the disadvantaged
•Inequalities associated with
impacts
• Community livability
• Gender imbalances
• Cohesion/integration
• Opportunity
• Anxiety/’Rootlessness’
• Migration
Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet
Sustainable Development and
Sustainable Transportation
• a critical component of a broader economic system which
supports business and social development;
• an open system, which requires natural and man-made inputs
and produces outputs which impact on the environment;
• part of a social system that shapes and is shaped by that social
system, including other policy areas;
• comprised of a series of physical sub-systems with a range of
physical and operational components and which are organized
through formal and informal conventions; and
• fragmented series of partly connected yet partly competing
sub-systems with complex and varying governance
arrangements.
Sustainable Transportation
Where to make it count?
POLICY
LEVEL
ORGANIZATIONAL
LEVEL
PROJECT
LEVEL
Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet
European Transport White Paper
Policy Level
• Overarching Aim
to build a competitive transport system
that will increase mobility, remove major
barriers in key areas and fuel growth and
employment. At the same time, the
proposals will dramatically reduce Europe's
dependence on imported oil and cut
carbon emissions in transport by 60% by
2050
Remembering Context
Remembering Context
Economic Impacts Assessed
Impact Areas
Indicators
Economic Impacts
Transport Activity
Passenger kilometers and tonne kilometers by all modes.
Modal Shift
Share of passenger or tonne kilometers by mode.
Transport costs to users
Unit cost per passenger or tonne transported (including capital costs, fixed operation
costs and variable fuel and non-fuel costs).
Economic growth
Qualitative inference of policy impacts on GDP only.
Efficiency of the transport
Not defined but incorporates notions of smart pricing, efficient networks, fuel efficiency
system
and vehicle purchase costs.
Congestion
Average speed and use of available road capacity.
Household costs
The share of passenger transport costs within the household income of the average EU
household.
Transport related sectors
Not defined but qualitative inference of the potential of the strategies to support the
European vehicle manufacturing industry.
Innovation and research
Not defined but qualitative inference about the impact of the strategy on research spend
on green innovation.
Reduction of administrative
Not defined but qualitative inference about overall levels of administration.
burden
EU budget
Not defined as will be assessed on a case by case basis.
International relations
Not defined but qualitative inference about the potential synergies and conflicts with
Social Impacts Assessed
Impact Areas
Indicators
Social Impacts
Degree of mobility
Refers to the % change in total transport activity for passengers with an
overall reduction being negative.
Choice
Not defined but qualitative inferences about rail investments improving
choice.
Accessibility
Potential accessibility is a generalized cost based measure. Larger areas are
more attractive and cost, time and distance are negative separation factors.
Distributional Impacts
Not clearly defined although the analysis refers in part to the distribution of
household costs by income band.
Employment level and
Number of jobs in the transport sector. Skills and working conditions are not
conditions
defined clearly.
Safety
External costs of accidents and total number of accidents.
Environmental Impacts Assessed
Impact Areas
Indicators
Environmental Impacts
Climate Change
Total CO2 emissions from transport. Both transport and well to wheel analyses are
Air pollution
Emissions of NOx and PM10 and external costs of these pollutants.
Noise pollution
External costs of noise pollution.
Energy use/energy
Total energy demand from transport Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (reviewed in
efficiency
Renewable energy
presented.
detail below). Energy intensity is an efficiency indicator that uses total energy demand
and transport activity to create a ratio for passenger and freight.
Total energy demand split by fossil fuels, biofuels and electricity.
use
Biodiversity
Not defined but qualitatively refers to fragmentation, land-take, loss of biodiversity and
damage to eco-system services.
European Transport White Paper
Review of Do-Minimum Case
200
Passenger transport
120%
150
31%
100
33%
51%
Mton CO2
50
0
-50
-100
CO2 intensity
-11%
Energy intensity
Activity level
Total
0%
-22%
-10%
-19%
-74%
-44%
-150
-40%
-200
Urban
Interurban
Intercontinental
Factors Influencing CO2 emissions
European Transport White Paper
Policy Option 2
Policy Option 3
Policy Option 4
Economic Impacts
Transport Activity
--
=
-
Modal Shift
++
=
+
Transport costs to users
---
=
--
Economic growth
++
+
+++
Efficiency of the transport system
++
+
+++
Congestion
++
=
+
Household costs
--
-
--
Transport related sectors
+
+++
+++
Innovation and research
+
+++
++
Reduction of administrative burden
+
=
+
EU budget
=
=
=
International relations
--
-
-
Degree of mobility
---
=
-
Choice
++
=
++
Accessibility
++
=
++
Distributional Impacts
=
-
+
Employment level and conditions
++
++
+++
Safety
++
=
+
Climate Change
+++
+++
+++
Air pollution
+++
++
++
Noise pollution
+++
++
+
Social Impacts
Environmental Impacts
European Transport White Paper
• Largest Scale attempt for Sustainable
Transport Assessment
• Significant improvement in transparency
• Informs policy package choice (coherence with
longer-term goals)
• Positive role as a signal
European Transport White Paper
•
•
•
•
•
Modelling systems not robust
Indicators are so aggregate as to lose meaning
Social context is flattened
Does not really reach out beyond transport
Implementation is largely national
– Is this joined up?
• Only limited signs that constraints are to play a
part
• “Curbing Mobility is not an option”
– Weak sustainability
High Speed Rail
• Decision taken in same way
as other infrastructure
projects
• Bespoke Sustainability
Appraisal also commissioned
Target Cost
Estimated Cost
Contingency
Total
Phase 1
17.16
15.65
5.75
21.4
Phase 2
n/a
12.5
8.7
21.2
Rolling Stock
Total
5.8
1.7
7.5
33.95
16.15
50.1
Source: Environmental Audit Committee
Towards documents about sustainable
transportation (2007, 2008)
Indicators
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2 emissions by end user (industry, transport, domestic, other)
Aviation and shipping emissions
Private Vehicles: CO2 emissions, car-km, and final household expenditure
Road Freight: CO2 emissions, tonne-km, tonnes, and GDP
Road Transport Emissions NOx, PM10, CO2 emissions, and GDP
Emissions of air pollutants
Air Quality and Health
Ecological impacts of air pollution
Mobility
Getting to school
Accessibility
What is HS2 for?
• Never been articulated as part of a sustainable transport
strategy
• 2009 SoS Transport Geoff Hoon announced creation of HS2
Limited in a statement to Parliament about expansion of
Heathrow
• 2 years previously, the Rail White Paper had said:
• “Higher speed is not the only or best way of cutting journey times.
Nor is it without cost. Increasing the maximum speed of a train
from 200 km/h to 350 km/h means a 90 per cent increase in energy
consumption. In exchange, it cuts station-to-station journey time by
less than 25 per cent and door-to-door journey-time by even less. …
The argument that high-speed rail travel is a ‘green option’ does not
stand up to close inspection on the basis of the present electricity
generation mix.” (DfT, 2007b, p. 62).
What is HS2 for?
• The remit of HS2 Limited was subsequently clarified to
focus, in order of priority on:
• Passenger capacity: “this is the driving consideration,
including capacity released on classic lines”;
• Speed;
• Land use and development objectives and the support
of new housing development; and
• Developing the line to be capable of handling freight
for greater network resilience.
• Modal shift from air to rail was “not expected to be a
key objective for HS2” (Rowlands, 2009).
Sustainability Appraisal
Source: Geisler et al. (2011)
Sustainability Appraisal
• 18 sustainability issues
• 33 objectives as shown in Table
• 33 objectives => 66 evaluation criteria
Key Sustainability Issue
Objective
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change
Climatic factors and
Improve resilience of the rail network against extreme
adaptability
weather events
Greenhouse Gases
Contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by
facilitating modal shift from road and air to rail
Reduce relative contribution made by rail to greenhouse
gas emissions by promoting energy efficient technologies
Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement
Landscape and townscape
Maintain and enhance existing landscape character
Maintain and enhance existing townscape character