Climate change impacts: Challenges for food security and sustainable agricultural productivity growth in Vietnam

Climate change impacts: Challenges for
food security and sustainable agricultural
productivity growth in Vietnam

Geetha Mohan Ph.D.
Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science
IR3S, University of Tokyo


Contents
 What is climate change, food security and
sustainability
 How climate change impacts on food security
and agriculture production
 Case study on Vietnam
Major Objectives
Review of Literature
Data and Methodology
Results
Conclusions


What is Climate Change?
Increase in Global mean temperature (0C)
 Short-term:
Greater Climate
Variability
including
extreme events
(floods, drought
etc.,)

 Long-term: Shifts
in mean climate
conditions
(changes in
expected
rainfall months
etc.,)

Source: FAO 2009


Impacts of natural disasters on agriculture
Number of flash flood over years

National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, MONRE 2010

Paddy & cultivation area loss due to natural
calamity (000 ha)

Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control, 2010


Food Security
FAO (2003) refers to the existence of food security
“when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access
to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for a healthy and active life”.
FAO (2009) has also reported that while globally the impact of
climate change on food production may be small, at least until
2050.
The distribution of production will have severe consequences on

food security.
Due to result of global warming, most of the developing countries
may experience a decline of between 9% and 21% in overall
potential agricultural productivity.


Dimensions of food security
Dimensions

Impacts

Availability

Adequacy of food supply

loss in food production,
indirect environmental
feedbacks

Access

Accessibility to food or affordability

Infrastructure damage, asset
losses; loss of income and
employment opportunities

Stability

of supply, without seasonal fluctuations or

shortages

Utilization

quality and safety of food

FAO (2009)

Increased livelihood risks,
pressure on food prices;
Higher dependency on food
imports and food aid

Human health risks, nutrition


Challenges on food security
 Food insecurity, food deficits or shortages are major concerns of
all countries.
 However, it will vary from country to country, and much will
depend on the degree of investments on agriculture, food
distribution systems, early warning measures, transport and
communications. An overriding factor concerns appropriate
policies on food security.
For e.g. small farmers and medium farmers
 nutritional and food insecurity problems.
 Difficulties to minimize and ensure sustainable
consistent farm produce are major challenges for
small farmers.

Sustainability
Generally there is no accepted definition of sustainable
agriculture.
Swindale (1988) explained, “sustainability conveys the idea of a
balance between human needs and environmental concerns”
Rapidly rising population growth
and diminishing arable land,
particularly in the developing
countries, has increased the stress on
the natural resource base.
It is now incontestable that
sustainable agriculture is seen as an
important goal throughout the world.

Photo Courtesy: UNO


Food Availability
Per capita milled rice

Per capita foodgrain

Northern provinces
achieved food
sufficiency
Kg of milled rice equiv.
per capita in 2006
0 - 50
51 - 100

101 - 200
201 - 500
501 - 1500
1501 - 3000
3001 - 6763

Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013

Southern provinces
produced surplus
food (rice) for
export


Food Affordability
Poverty Rate (%)

Domestic Food Price (VND/kg)
2006

Vietnam

2010

140

15.5

10.7

Urban

7.7

5.1

Rural

18

13.2

Red River Delta

10.1

6.5

North East

22.2

17.7

40

North West

39.4

32.7

20

North Central Coast

26.6

19.3

South Central Coast

17.2

14.7

Central Highlands

24

21

South East

4.6

3.7

13.3

11.4

By region

Mekong Delta

25.0

120

20.0

100
15.0

80
60

0

10.0
5.0

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Rice (1000 VND/kg)

Pork (1000 VND/kg)

Beef (1000 VND/kg)

Buffalo meat (1000 VND/kg)

Poultry (1000 VND/kg)

CPI (%)

Real income growth (%)

Source: VHLSS 2002 – 2012

0.0


Food Utilization Threat of Undernourished Children
Percentage of Under-5 Children Undernourished (weight for age)

Group/Region
Vietnam
VietNam - Kinh/Chinese

Percentage

20.2
18

VietNam - Other Minorities

29.7

Red River Delta

18.5

North East

22.3

North West

28.8

North Central Coast

21

South Central Coast

23.7

Central Highlands

23.2

South East

10.8

Mekong River Delta

20.4

Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013


Households by Farm size (%)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

Red River Delta

Northern midlands North Central and
and mountain
Central coastal
areas
areas

< 0.2 ha

0.2 ha - 0.5 ha

Source: agrocensus 2011

Source: Nguyen Trung Kien, 2013

Central Highlands

0.5 ha - 2 ha

South East

Mekong River Delta

>=2ha


Food Security Policies

 Land policies for agricultural
production
 Policies on water resources for
agriculture production
 Policies on infrastructure for agriculture
 Policies on rice price
 Restrict export in emergency case
 Policy to support directly to paddy
farmers

Case Study-Vietnam


Introduction
 Agriculture is very important sector for Vietnamese economy.
However, improving agricultural output will leads to enhance
farmers livelihoods and their household incomes.
 Agriculture sector contributes 16 percent of National GDP
(GoSF, Vietnam); and the annual agricultural exports are
around 30 percent in 2006 (WDI).
 Around 70 percent of the population are living in rural areas;
and that fifty percent of the population are directly engaged
in agricultural activities (World Bank).


Introduction

Cntd….

50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0

5.0
0.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Percent

GDP at Constant 1994 prices, Vietnam-1990-2010

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery
Service

Year

Industry and Construction

Land use pattern, Vietnam-2011
WHOLE
Mekong

Red

9.7

5.8 1.9
3.01.2

59.4

16.5

24.7

37.0
Forestry Land

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Specially used Land

3.2

8.0

3.71.0 7.2

57.4

19.3

15.4
18.5

3.0

52.4

35.7

Agricultural Land

6.3

21.7

57.4

Central

Northern

7.7

64.5

South

North

5.5 2.1

46.4

30.6

14.5
Homestead Land

6.6
Others

15.7
19.9
17.3


Cropping Pattern in Vietnam
60.0
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

50.0

Percent

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

Paddy

Maize

Sugar-cane

Cotton

Crop

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Peanut

Soya-bean

Perennial
Industrial, Fruit
Crop and
Others


Climate change and impact on crop yield
Impact of climate change in Vietnam, 2020 - 2100
2020

2060

2100

Annual average temperature change relative to 1980-99 (C0)

0.4

1.4

2.3

Annual average rainfall change relative to 1980-99 (%)

1.2

3.7

5.8

Sea-level rise (cm)

12

37

75

Source: MONRE, 2009

Commodity
Rice

Maize

Cassava
Sugarcane
Coffee
Vegetables

Yield change (%) relative to
baseline

Pessimistic
Optimistic
-12.5
-1.7
-10.27
1.7
-0.21
2.34
-6.4
7.2
-18.89
4.38
-5.8
-3.77
-19.81
4.34
-18.93
4.23
-18.95
3.61
-20.83
5.33

Source: Van Dijk et al., 2013

Horizon
1990-2050
2000-2030
2000-2050
1990-2050

2000-2030
2000-2050
2000-2030
2000-2030
2000-2030
2000-2030


Objectives
 To analyze the trends in agricultural total factor productivity
growth using Malmquist Index by regional-wise in Vietnam
 To evaluate the relationship between climate variables and
agriculture total factor productivity
 To examine the determinants of total factor productivity
growth in Vietnam agriculture
 To conclude the major findings of the study


Review of Literature
Cross-Country
Fulginiti and Perrin (1997)

18 LDC in 1961-85

Lusigi & Thirtle (1997)

47 Africa Countries in 1961-91

Rao & Coelli (1998)

97 countries in 1980-95

Trueblood & Coggins (2003)

115 countries in 1961-91

Coelli & Rao (2003)

93 countries in 1980-2000

With in the Country
Mao and Koo (1997)

29 Provinces, 1984-1993

Conradie, Piesse & Thirtle (2009)

31 Magisterial Districts, Western Cape,1952 to 2002

Armagan, Ozden & Bekcioglu (2010)

Region-wise, Turkey in 1994-2003

Nicholas, Buccola & Fuglie (2011)

Provincial-wise, Indonesia, 1985-2005

Shilpa (2012)

State-wise, India, 1983-84 to 2005-06

Fantu N B (2012)

Zone-wise, Ethiopia, 2003-04 to 2008-09

Mohan Geetha & Hirotaka Matsuda
(2013)

10 Regions, Ghana, 2000-09


Data and Methodology
Particular

Source

Period

Extra/Interpolation

1. Agriculture Output in
(Bill. VND)
2. Livestock includes
Buffalo, Cattle, and
Pigs* (000’ head)
3. Machinery includes
Agricultural Tractors,
Threshing Machines
(no. of pieces)
4. Agricultural Land in

000’ ha.
5. Agricultural Labor
(000’ persons)

1. Statistics of
Agriculture, Forestry
and Machinery,
Published by
Government Statistics
of Vietnam, 2000.
2. General Statistics
Office of Vietnam
Online Database.

1985-2007**

1.

1.

1.

1985-2007

Station wise
Precipitation(mm)
and Air
Temperature mean
(2m- Degree
Celsius)

Canadian Climate
Change Scenarios
Network, Canada

2.
3.

Agricultural Labour
(2004-2007)
Agricultural Land
(1988, 1989 and
1999 to 2004)
Machinery (2000,
2007)

* Livestock calculations based on Hayami and Ruttan (1970)
** For analysis purpose, we considered only 61 provinces instead of 64 provinces because the
new 3 provinces are formed after 2004. They are Dien Bien from Lai Chau; Dak Lak from Dak
Nong; Hau Giay from Can Tho.


Methodology
 The Malmquist Index measures the TFP changes between two
data points (for e.g. those of a particular regions in two adjacent
time periods)
 TFP growths and decomposition components (Efficiency and
Technical Change).
 Following Färe et al. (1994) the Malmquist TFP index between
period t and t+1 is given by

The Malmquist index could be decomposed into an efficiency
change component and a technical change component

M0 >1 indicates positive TFP growth from period t+1 to period t, while M0 <1indicates a TFP
decline.


Methodology

Cntd……

 Impacts of causal factors on Total Factor Productivity Growth.
 The Cobb-Douglas Production function


Methodology

Cntd.....

Explanatory Variable

Description of Variable

Yit

Agricultural Output (VND Dongs)

X1,it

Agricultural Land (ha)

X2,it

Agricultural Labour (no/ha.)

X3,it

Livestock (no./ha.)

X4,it

Machinery-Tractors & Threshers (no./1000ha)

X5,it;

Temperature (C0)

X6,it

Precipitation (mm)

R2

Regional Dummy- Mekong River Delta

R3

Regional Dummy- Central Coast

R4

Regional Dummy- Northern Midlands

R5

Regional Dummy- Red River Delta

R6

Regional Dummy- South East

β1,… β6

The coefficients for the endogenous variables

γ2 , γ3 , γ4 , γ5 , and γ6

The coefficients for the binary regressors

Uit

The error term


Efficiency change, Technical and Total factor productivity growth in Vietnam
Agriculture
1.25

1.15

Growth Index

1.05

0.95

0.85

0.75

0.65

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Efficiency Change

Technical Change

Total Factor Productivity