International economics theory and policy 6th edition

International
Economics
Theory and Policy
SIXTH EDITION

Paul R. Krugman
Princeton University

Maurice Obstfeld
University of California, Berkeley
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International Economics: Theory and Policy
Copyright © 2003 by Paul R. Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld
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03 02

BRIEF CONTENTS
Contents
Preface

1

Introduction

Part I International Trade Theory
2
3
4
5
6
7

Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage:
The Ricardian Model
Specific Factors and Income Distribution
Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model
The Standard Trade Model
Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition,
and International Trade
International Factor Movements

Part 2 International Trade Policy
8 The Instruments of Trade Policy
9 The Political Economy of Trade Policy
10 Trade Policy in Developing Countries

11 Controversies in Trade Policy

Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy
Macroeconomics
12 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments
1 3 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:
An Asset Approach
14 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
16 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run
17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention

Part 4 International Macroeconomic Policy
18 The International Monetary System, 1870-1973
19 Macroeconomic Policy and Coordination under Floating
Exchange Rates
20 Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience
2 1 The Global Capital Market: Performance
and Policy Problems
2 2 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform

vii
xxii

1

9
10
38
67

93
120
160

185
186
218
255
276

293
294
324
357
388
433
481

53 I
532
568
604
636
665


vi

Brief Contents

Mathematical Postscripts
Postscript to Chapter 3: The Specific Factors Model
Postscript to Chapter 4: The Factor Proportions Model
Postscript to Chapter 5: The Trading World Economy
Postscript to Chapter 6: The Monopolistic
Competition Model
Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and
International Portfolio Diversification

707
708
714
717

Index

737

726
728


CONTENTS
Preface

1

Introduction
What Is International Economics About?
The Gains from Trade

The Pattern of Trade
How Much Trade?
The Balance of Payments
Exchange Rate Determination
International Policy Coordination
The International Capital Market
International Economics: Trade and Money

Part I
International Trade Theory
2

xxii

I
3
3
4
5
6
6
7
7
8

9

Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage:
The Ricardian Model

10

The Concept of Comparative Advantage
A One-Factor Economy
Production Possibilities
Relative Prices and Supply
Trade in a One-Factor World
Box: Comparative Advantage in Practice: The Case of Babe Ruth
Determining the Relative Price after Trade
The Gains From Trade
A Numerical Example
Relative Wages
Misconceptions about Comparative Advantage
Productivity and Competitiveness
The Pauper Labor Argument
Exploitation
Box: Do Wages Reflect Productivity?
Comparative Advantage with Many Goods
Setting Up the Model
Relative Wages and Specialization
Determining the Relative Wage in the Multigood Model
Adding Transport Costs and Nontraded Goods
Empirical Evidence on the Ricardian Model
Summary

10
12
12
14
14

16
16
19
20
22
23
23
24
24
25
26
26
27
28
30
31
34
VII


viii

Contents

3

Specific Factors and Income Distribution

38

The Specific Factors Model
Assumptions of the Model
Box: What Is a Specific Factor?
Production Possibilities
Prices, Wages, and Labor Allocation
Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income
International Trade in the Specific Factors Model
Resources and Relative Supply
Trade and Relative Prices
The Pattern of Trade
Income Distribution and the Gains From Trade
The Political Economy of Trade: A Preliminary View
Optimal Trade Policy
Income Distribution and Trade Politics
Box: Specific Factors and the Beginnings of Trade Theory
Summary

39
39
40
40
44
49
50
51
52
53
54
57
57

58
59
60

Appendix: Further Details on Specific Factors

63

Marginal and Total Product
Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income

4

5

63
64

Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

67

A Model of a Two-Factor Economy
Assumptions of the Model
Factor Prices and Goods Prices
Resources and Output
Effects of International Trade Between Two-Factor Economies
Relative Prices and the Pattern of Trade
Trade and the Distribution of Income
Factor Price Equalization

Case Study: North-South Trade and Income Inequality
Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model
Testing the Heckscher-Ohlin Model
,
Implications of the Tests
Summary

68
68
69
72
75
76
76
78
80
82
82
85
86

Appendix: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Input Choices

89

Choice of Technique
Goods Prices and Factor Prices

89
91

The Standard Trade Model

93

A Standard Model of a Trading Economy
Production Possibilities and Relative Supply
Relative Prices and Demand
The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of Trade

94
94
95
98


Contents
Determining Relative Prices
Economic Growth: A Shift of the RS Curve
Growth and the Production Possibility Frontier
Relative Supply and the Terms of Trade
.
International Effects of Growth
Case Study: Has the Growth of Newly Industrializing
Countries Hurt Advanced Nations?
International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve
The Transfer Problem
Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade
Presumptions about the Terms of Trade Effects of Transfers
Case Study: The Transfer Problem and the Asian Crisis

Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD
Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a Tariff
Effects of an Export Subsidy
Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses?
Summary

103
104
105
105
107
108
109
109
110
111
113

Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium
with Offer Curves

117

Deriving a Country's Offer Curve
International Equilibrium

6

Economies of Scale, Imperfect Competition,
and International Trade

Economies of Scale and International Trade: An Overview
Economies of Scale and Market Structure
The Theory of Imperfect Competition
Monopoly: A Brief Review
Monopolistic Competition
Limitations of the Monopolistic Competition Model
Monopolistic Competition and Trade
The Effects of Increased Market Size
Gains from an Integrated Market: A Numerical Example
Economies of Scale and Comparative Advantage
The Significance of Intraindustry Trade
Why Intraindustry Trade Matters
Case Study: Intraindustry Trade in Action: The North
American Auto Pact of 1964
Dumping
The Economics of Dumping
Case Study: Antidumping as Protectionism
Reciprocal Dumping
The Theory of External Economies
Specialized Suppliers
Labor Market Pooling
Knowledge Spillovers

98
99
100
101
101

117

118

120
120
122
123
123
126
131
132
132
133
136
139
140
141
142
142
145
146
147
147
148
149

ix


Contents

7

External Economies and Increasing Returns

150

External Economies and International Trade

150

External Economies and the Pattern of Trade
Trade and Welfare with External Economies
Dynamic Increasing Returns

150
151
152

Box: Tinseltown Economics
Summary

153
155

Appendix: Determining Marginal Revenue

158

International Factor Movements

160

International Labor Mobility

161

A One-Good Model Without Factor Mobility
International Labor Movement
Extending the Analysis

Case Study: Wage Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration
Case Study: Immigration and the U.S. Economy
International Borrowing and Lending
Intertemporal Production Possibilities and Trade
The Real Interest Rate
Intertemporal Comparative Advantage

Direct Foreign Investment and Multinational Firms
Box: Does Capital Movement to Developing Countries Hurt
Workers in High-Wage Countries?
The Theory of Multinational Enterprise
Multinational Firms in Practice

165
166
167
167
168
169

169
170
172
173

Case Study: Foreign Direct Investment in the United States
Box: Taken for a Ride?
Summary

175
177
177

Appendix: More on Intertemporal Trade

181

Part 2
International Trade Policy
8

161
162
163

185

The Instruments of Trade Policy

186

Basic Tariff Analysis

186

Supply, Demand, and Trade in a Single Industry
Effects of a Tariff
Measuring the Amount of Protection

Costs and Benefits of a Tariff

187
189
190

192

Consumer and Producer Surplus
Measuring the Costs and Benefits

192
195

Other Instruments of Trade Policy

196

Export Subsidies: Theory

Case Study: Europe's Common Agricultural Policy

197

198


Contents
Import Quotas: Theory
Case Study: An Import Quota in Practice: U.S. Sugar
Voluntary Export Restraints
Case Study: A Voluntary Export Restraint in Practice:
Japanese Autos
Local Content Requirements
Box: American Buses, Made in Hungary
Other Trade Policy Instruments
The Effects of Trade Policy: A Summary
Summary

200
200
202
203
203
204
205
206
206

Appendix I: Tariff Analysis in General Equilibrium

210

A Tariff in a Small Country
A Tariff in a Large Country

210
212

Appendix II: Tariffs and Import Quotas in the Presence
of Monopoly
The Model with Free Trade
The Model with a Tariff
The Model with an Import Quota
Comparing a Tariff and a Quota

9

M

214
214
215
216
216

The Political Economy of Trade Policy

218

The Case for Free Trade

Free Trade and Efficiency
Additional Gains from Free Trade
Political Argument for Free Trade
Case Study: The Gains from 1992
National Welfare Arguments Against Free Trade
The Terms of Trade Argument for a Tariff
The Domestic Market Failure Argument Against Free Trade
How Convincing Is the Market Failure Argument?
Box: Market Failures Cut Both Ways: The Case of California
Income Distribution and Trade Policy
Electoral Competition
Collective Action
Modeling the Political Process
Who Gets Protected?
Box: Politicians for Sale: Evidence from the 1990s
International Negotiations and Trade Policy
The Advantages of Negotiation
International Trade Agreements: A Brief History
The Uruguay Round
Trade Liberalization
From the GATT to the WTO
Benefits and Costs
Box: Settling a Dispute—and Creating One
Preferential Trading Agreements

218
219
219
221
221

223
223
224
226
227
229
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
237
239
239
240
241
242
243

xi


xii

Contents

10

I I

Box: Free Trade Area versus Customs Union
Box: Do Trade Preferences Have Appeal?
Case Study: Trade Diversion in South America
Summary
Appendix: Proving that the Optimum Tariff
Is Positive
Demand and Supply
The Tariff and Prices
The Tariff and Domestic Welfare

252
252
252
253

Trade Policy in Developing Countries

255

Import-Substituting Industrialization
The Infant Industry Argument
Promoting Manufacturing Through Protection
Case Study: The End of Import Substitution in Chile
Results of Favoring Manufacturing: Problems
of Import-Substituting Industrialization
Problems of the Dual Economy
The Symptoms of Dualism
Case Study: Economic Dualism in India

Dual Labor Markets and Trade Policy
Trade Policy as a Cause of Economic Dualism
Export-Oriented Industrialization: The East Asian
Miracle
The Facts of Asian Growth
Trade Policy in the HPAEs
Box: China's Boom
Industrial Policy in the HPAEs
Other Factors in Growth
Summary

256
256
258
260

Controversies in Trade Policy
Sophisticated Arguments for Activist Trade Policy
Technology and Externalities
Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Policy
Case Study: When the Chips Were Up
Globalization and Low-Wage Labor
The Anti-Globalization Movement
Trade and Wages Revisited
Labor Standards and Trade Negotiations
Environmental and Cultural Issues
The WTO and National Independence
Case Study: The Shipbreakers of Alang
Summary

244
245
246
247

261
263
263
264
264
267
267
268
269
270
270
271
272

276
276
277
278
282
283
284
285
287
288
288

289
290


Contents

Part 3
Exchange Rates and Open-Economy
Macroeconomics
I2

I3

293

National Income Accounting and the Balance
of Payments

294

The National Income Accounts

295

National Product and National Income
Capital Depreciation, International Transfers, and Indirect
Business Taxes
Gross Domestic Product
National Income Accounting for an Open Economy
Consumption

Investment
t
Government Purchases
The National Income Identity for an Open Economy
An Imaginary Open Economy
The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness
Saving and the Current Account
Private and Government Saving
Case Study: Government Deficit Reduction May Not Increase
the Current Account Surplus
The Balance of Payment Accounts
Examples of Paired Transactions
The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity
The Current Account, Once Again
The Capital Account
The Financial Account
The Statistical Discrepancy
Official Reserve Transactions
Box: The Mystery of the Missing Surplus
Case Study: Is the United States the World's Biggest Debtor?
Summary

296

306
307
309
310
310
312

312
313
313
314
316
320

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:
An Asset Approach

324

Exchange Rates and International Transactions
Domestic and Foreign Prices
Exchange Rates and Relative Prices
The Foreign Exchange Market
The Actors
Box: A Tale of Two Dollars
Characteristics of the Market
Spot Rates and Forward Rates

325
325
327
328
328
329
330
331

297
298
299
299
299
299
300
300
301
303
305

xiii


xiv

Contents

I4

Foreign Exchange Swaps
Future and Options
The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets
Assets and Asset Returns
Risk and Liquidity
Interest Rates
Exchange Rates and Asset Returns
'
A Simple Rule

Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market
Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market
Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition
How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns
The Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium
The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate
The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate
Box: The Perils of Forecasting Exchange Rates
Summary

332
333
334
334
335
336
337
338
340
341
341
342
344
346
347
347
349
350

Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered
Interest Parity

354

Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates

357

Money Defined: A Brief Review
Money as a Medium of Exchange
Money as a Unit of Account
Money as a Store of Value
What Is Money?
How the Money Supply Is Determined
The Demand for Money by Individuals
Expected Return
Risk
Liquidity

358
358
358
358
359
-359
359
360
360
361

Aggregate Money Demand
The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money
Supply and Demand

361
362

Equilibrium in the Money Market
Interest Rates and the Money Supply
Output and the Interest Rate
The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run
Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate
U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate
Europe's Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate
Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
Money and Money Prices
The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes
Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels

362
365
366
366
367
369
370
373
373
374

375


r
Contents

j:

|

t

I5

•
\
;
[
;
!
'
:
•

16

Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
Box: Inflation and Money-Supply Growth in Latin America
Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility

Box: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Bolivia
Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate
Exchange Rate Overshooting
Summary

376
377
378
378
380
381
383
384

Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run

388

The Law of One Price
Purchasing Power Parity
The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price
Absolute PPP and Relative PPP
A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP
,
The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach
Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP
The Fisher Effect
Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price
Box: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price
Explaining the Problems with PPP

Trade Barriers and Nontradables
Departures from Free Competition
Box: Hong Kong's Surprisingly High Inflation
International Differences in Price Level Measurement
PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run
Case Study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model
of Long-Run Exchange Rates
The Real Exchange Rate
Box: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence
from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops
Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate
Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium
Case Study: Why Has the Yen Kept Rising?
International Interest Rate Differences and the Real

389
389
390
391
392
392
394
396
400
402
404
404
405
406

408
408
409
411
411
412
415
416
419

Exchange Rate
Real Interest Parity
Summary
Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate,
and the Exchange Rate under the Flexible-Price
Monetary Approach

421
423
424
430

Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run

433

Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy

434

XV


xvi

Contents

17

Determinants of Consumption Demand
Determinants of the Current Account
How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account
How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account
The Equation of Aggregate Demand
The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand
Real Income and Aggregate Demand
How Output Is Determined in the Short Run
Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run:
The DD Schedule
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium
Deriving the DD Schedule
Factors that Shift the DD Schedule
Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule
Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium
Deriving the AA Schedule
Factors that Shift the AA Schedule
Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting
the DD and AA Schedules Together
Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy

Fiscal Policy
Policies to Maintain Full Employment
Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation
Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy
A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply
Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply
A Permanent Fiscal Expansion
Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account
Box: The Dollar Exchange Rate and the U.S. Economic
Slowdown of 2000-2001
Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current
Account Dynamics
The J-Curve
Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation
Summary

434
435
436
437
437
437
438
438

Appendix I: The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA Model
Appendix II: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption
Demand
Appendix III: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and
Empirical Estimates of Trade Elasticities

470

440
440
441
443
445
445
446
446
448
450
451
451
452
455
456
456
456
458
460
461
463
464
465
466

475
477

Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange
Intervention

481

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?

481


Contents

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply

482

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply
Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply
Sterilization
The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply
How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate
Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed
Exchange Rate
Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate
A Diagrammatic Analysis
Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
Changes in the Exchange Rate

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes
Case Study: Fixing the Exchange Rate to Escape
from a Liquidity Trap
Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight
Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention
Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness
of Sterilized Intervention
Box: Mexico's 1994 Balance of Payments Crisis
Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect
Asset Substitutability
The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect
Asset Substitutability
Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention
The Signaling Effect of Intervention
Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System
The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard
The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center
The Gold Standard
The Mechanics of a Gold Standard
Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard
Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard
The Bimetallic Standard
The Gold Exchange Standard
Summary

486
487
488
489
490

508
510
510
511
512
512
513
513
514
515
516
516
517

Appendix I: Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange
Market with Imperfect Asset Substitutability

522

Demand
Supply
Equilibrium

Appendix II: The Monetary Approach to the Balance
of Payments
Appendix III: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises

491
491

492
494
494
495
496
498
499
502
505
505
506
507

522
523
523

525
527

xvii


xviii

Contents

Part 4
International Macroeconomic Policy
I8

I9

53 I

The International Monetary System, 1870-1973

532

Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy
Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price-Level Stability
External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account
International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard,
1870-1914
Origins of the Gold Standard
External Balance under the Gold Standard
The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism
The Gold Standard "Rules of the Game": Myth and Reality
Box: Hume versus the Mercantilists
Internal Balance under the Gold Standard
Case Study: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes:
Conflict over America's Monetary Standard During the 1890s
The Interwar Years, 1918-1939
The German Hyperinflation
The Fleeting Return to Gold
International Economic Disintegration
Case Study: The International Gold Standard
and the Great Depression
The Bretton Woods System and the Internationa]
Monetary Fund

Goals and Structure of the IMF
Convertibility
Internal and External Balance under the Bretton Woods System
The Changing Meaning of External Balance
Speculative Capital Flows and Crises
Analyzing Policy Options under the Bretton Woods System
Maintaining Internal Balance
Maintaining External Balance
Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies

533
533
534
537
537
537
538
539
540
541
541
542
543
543
544
545
546
547
548
549

550
550
551
552
553
554

The External Balance Problem of the United States
Case Study: The Decline and Fall of the Bretton Woods System
Worldwide Inflation and the Transition to Floating Rates
Summary

556
557
561
564

Macroeconomic Policy and Coordination under
Floating Exchange Rates

568

The Case for Floating Exchange Rates
Monetary Policy Autonomy
Symmetry

568
569
570

Contents
Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers
The Case Against Floating Exchange Rates
Discipline
Destabilizing Speculation and Money Market Disturbances
Injury to International Trade and Investment
Uncoordinated Economic Policies
The Illusion of Greater Autonomy
Case Study: Exchange Rate Experience Between the Oil
Shocks, 1973-1980
Macroeconomic Interdependence under a Floating Rate
Case Study: Disinflation, Growth, Crisis, and
Recession, 1980-2002
What Has Been Learned Since 1973?
Monetary Policy Autonomy
Symmetry
The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer
Discipline
Destabilizing Speculation
International Trade and Investment
Policy Coordination

I
I
I
I
I
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[•

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20

571
573
573
574
575
576
576
577
582

t

586
590
590
592
592
593
594
594
595

Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option
for Most Countries?

Directions for Reform
Summary
Appendix: International Policy Coordination Failures

596
596
597
601

Optimum Currency Areas and
the European Experience

604

How the European Single Currency Evolved

604

European Currency Reform Initiatives, 1969-1978
The European Monetary System, 1979-1998
German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory
of the EMS
The EU "1992" Initiative
European Economic and Monetary Union
The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone
The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability
and Growth Pact
The European System of Central Banks
Box: Designing and Naming a New Currency
The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism

The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas
Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed
Exchange Rate Area: The GG Schedule
Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed
Exchange Rate Area: The LL Schedule

605
607
609
610
612
613
613
615
616
616
617
618
620

xix


XX

Contents

The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and
LL Schedules Together
What Is an Optimum Currency Area?

Case Study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?
Box: How Much Trade Do Currency Unions Create?
The Future of EMU
Summary

2I

The Global Capital Market: Performance
and Policy Problems
The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade
Three Types of Gain from Trade
Risk Aversion
Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset Trade
The Menu of International Assets: Debt Versus Equity
International Banking and the International Capital Market
The Structure of the International Capital Market
Growth of the International Capital Market
Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading
The Growth of Eurocurrency Trading
Regulating International Banking
The Problem of Bank Fai lure
Difficulties in Regulating International Banking
International Regulatory Cooperation
Box: The Banco Ambrosiano Collapse
Case Study: The Day the World Almost Ended
How Well Has the International Capital Market Performed?
The Extent of International Portfolio Diversification
The Extent of Intertemporal Trade
Onshore-Offshore Interest Differentials
The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market

Summary

22

Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform
Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy
The Gap Between Rich and Poor
Has the World Income Gap Narrowed over Time?
Structural Features of Developing Countries
Developing Country Borrowing and Debt
The Economics of Capital Inflows to Developing Countries
The Problem of Default
Alternative Forms of Capital Inflow
Latin America: From Crisis to Uneven Reform
Inflation and the 1980s Debt Crisis in Latin America
Box: The Simple Algebra of Moral Hazard

622
624
625
628
630
632

636
637
637
638
639
640

640
641
643
643
644
647
647
649
650
651
653
655
655
656
657
658
662

665
665
666
666
668
671
672
672
675
676
678
679

Contents

Case Study: Argentina's Economic Stagnation
Reforms, Capital Inflows, and the Return of Crisis
East Asia: Success and Crisis
The East Asian Economic Miracle
Box: What Did Asia Do Right?
Asian Weaknesses
The Asian Financial Crisis
Crises in Other Developing Regions
Case Study: Can Currency Boards Make Fixed Exchange
Rates Credible?
Lessons of Developing Country Crises
Reforming the World's Financial "Architecture"
Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime
"Prophylactic" Measures
Coping with Crisis
A Confused Future
Summary

695
697
698
699
701
702
702
702

Mathematical Postscripts

707

Postscript to Chapter 3: The Specific Factors Model
Factor Prices, Costs, and Factor Demands
Factor Price Determination in the Specific Factors Model
Effects of a Change in Relative Prices
Postscript to Chapter 4: The Factor Proportions Model
The Basic Equations in the Factor Proportions Model
Goods Prices and Factor Prices
Factor Supplies and Outputs
Postscript to Chapter 5: The Trading World Economy
Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium
World Equilibrium
Production and Income
Income, Prices, and Utility
Supply, Demand, and the Stability of Equilibrium
Effects of Changes in Supply and Demand
The Method of Comparative Statics
Economic Growth
The Transfer Problem
A Tariff
Postscript to Chapter 6: The Monopolistic Competition Model
Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International
Portfolio Diversification
An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio
A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio
The Effects of Changing Rates of Return

708
708
710
712
714
714
715
715
717
717
717
717
718
719
721
721
722
723
724
726

Index

681
684
687
687
689
689

691
692

728
728
729
732
737

XXI


PREFACE
At the start of the twenty-first century, international aspects of economics remain as
important and controversial as ever. In the last decade alone, major currency and Financial
crises have rocked industrializing countries from East Asia to Latin America; countries in
Europe have given up their national currencies in favor of a common currency, the euro;
and growing trade and financial linkages between industrial and developing countries
have sparked debate and even open protest inspired by claims that economic "globalization" has worsened worldwide ills ranging from poverty to pollution. Although the United
States is more self-sufficient than nations with smaller economies, problems of international economic policy have assumed primacy and now occupy a prominent place on
newspapers' front pages.
Recent general developments in the world economy raise concerns that have preoccupied international economists for more than two centuries, such as the nature of the
international adjustment mechanism and the merits of free trade compared with protection. As always in international economics, however, the interplay of events and ideas has
led to new modes of analysis. Three notable examples of recent progress are the asset
market approach to exchange rates; new theories of foreign trade based on increasing
returns and market structure rather than comparative advantage; and the intertemporal
analysis of international capital flows, which has been central both in refining the concept
of "external balance" and in examining the determinants of developing country borrowing and default.
The idea of writing this book came out of our experience in teaching international economics to undergraduates and business students since the late 1970s. We perceived two
main challenges in teaching. The first was to communicate to students the exciting intellectual advances in this dynamic field. The second was to show how the development of

international economic theory has traditionally been shaped by the need to understand the
changing world economy and analyze actual problems in international economic policy.
We found that published textbooks did not adequately meet these challenges. Too often,
international economics textbooks confront students with a bewildering array of special
models and assumptions from which basic lessons are difficult to extract. Because many of
these special models are outmoded, students are left puzzled about the real-world relevance of the analysis. As a result, many textbooks often leave a gap between the somewhat
antiquated material to be covered in class and the exciting issues that dominate current
research and policy debates. That gap has widened dramatically as the importance of
international economic problems—and enrollments in international economics courses—
have grown.
This book is our attempt to provide an up-to-date and understandable analytical framework for illuminating current events and bringing the excitement of international economics into the classroom. In analyzing both the real and monetary sides of the subject, our
approach has been to build up, step by step, a simple, unified framework for communicating the grand traditional insights as well as the newest findings and approaches. To help the
student grasp and retain the underlying logic of international economics, we motivate the
theoretical development at each stage by pertinent data or policy questions.
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Preface

The Place of This Book in the Economics Curriculum
Students assimilate international economics most readily when it is presented as a method of
analysis vitally linked to events in the world economy, rather than as a body of abstract theorems about abstract models. Our goal has therefore been to stress concepts and their application rather than theoretical formalism. Accordingly, the book does not presuppose an extensive
background in economics. Students who have had a course in economic principles will find
the book accessible, but students who have taken further courses in microeconomics or
macroeconomics will find an abundant supply of new material. Specialized appendices and
mathematical postscripts have been included to challenge the most advanced students.
We follow the standard practice of dividing the book into two halves, devoted to trade
and to monetary questions. Although the trade and monetary portions of international economics are often treated as unrelated subjects, even within one textbook, similar themes and
methods recur in both subfields. One example is the idea of gains from trade, which is
important in understanding the effects of free trade in assets as well as free trade in goods.

International borrowing and lending provide another example. The process by which countries trade present for future consumption is best understood in terms of comparative advantage (which is why we introduce it in the book's first half), but the resulting insights deepen
understanding of the external macroeconomic problems of developing and developed
economies alike. We have made it a point to illuminate connections between the trade and
monetary areas when they arise.
At the same time, we have made sure that the book's two halves are completely selfcontained. Thus, a one-semester course on trade theory can be based on Chapters 2 through
11, and a one-semester course on international monetary economics can be based on Chapters 12 through 22. If you adopt the book for a full-year course covering both subjects, however, you will find a treatment that does not leave students wondering why the principles
underlying their work on trade theory have been discarded over the winter break.

Some Distinctive Features of International
Economics: Theory and Policy
This book covers the most important recent developments in international economics without shortchanging the enduring theoretical and historical insights that have traditionally
formed the core of the subject. We have achieved this comprehensiveness by stressing how
recent theories have evolved from earlier findings in response to an evolving world economy. Both the real trade portion of the book (Chapters 2 through 11) and the monetary portion
(Chapters 12 through 22) are divided into a core of chapters focused on theory, followed by
chapters applying the theory to major policy questions, past and current.
In Chapter 1 we describe in some detail how this book addresses the major themes of
international economics. Here we emphasize several of the newer topics that previous
authors failed to treat in a systematic way.
Asset Market Approach to Exchange Rate Determination
The modern foreign exchange market and the determination of exchange rates by national interest rates and expectations are at the center of our account of open-economy

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Preface

macroeconomics. The main ingredient of the macroeconomic model we develop is the
interest parity relation (augmented later by risk premiums). Among the topics we address

using the model are exchange rate "overshooting"; behavior of real exchange rates; balanceof-payments crises under fixed exchange rates; and the causes and effects of central bank
intervention in the foreign exchange market.
Increasing Returns and Market Structure

After discussing the role of comparative advantage in promoting trade and gains from
trade, we move to the frontier of research (in Chapter 6) by explaining how increasing
returns and product differentiation affect trade and welfare. The models explored in this discussion capture significant aspects of reality, such as intraindustry trade and shifts in trade
patterns due to dynamic scale economies. The models show, too, that mutually beneficial
trade need not be based on comparative advantage.
Politics and Theory of Trade Policy

Starting in Chapter 3, we stress the effect of trade on income distribution as the key political factor behind restrictions on free trade. This emphasis makes it clear to students why the
prescriptions of the standard welfare analysis of trade policy seldom prevail in practice.
Chapter 11 explores the popular notion that governments should adopt activist trade policies
aimed at encouraging sectors of the economy seen as crucial. The chapter includes a theoretical discussion of such trade policy based on simple ideas from game theory.
International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination

Our discussion of international monetary experience (Chapters 18, 19, 20, and 22) stresses
the theme that different exchange rate systems have led to different policy coordination
problems for their members. Just as the competitive gold scramble of the interwar years
showed how beggar-thy-neighbor policies can be self-defeating, the current float challenges national policymakers to recognize their interdependence and formulate policies
cooperatively. Chapter 19 presents a detailed discussion of this very topical problem of the
current system.
The World Capital Market and Developing Countries

A broad discussion of the world capital market is given in Chapter 21, which takes up the
welfare implications of international portfolio diversification as well as problems of prudential supervision of offshore financial institutions. Chapter 22 is devoted to the long-term
growth prospects and to the specific macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization problems of industrializing and newly industrialized countries. The chapter reviews emerging
market crises and places in historical perspective the interactions among developing country borrowers, developed country lenders, and official financial institutions such as the
International Monetary Fund.

International Factor Movements

In Chapter 7 we emphasize the potential substitutability of international trade and international movements of factors of production. A feature in the chapter is our analysis of international borrowing and lending as intertemporal trade, that is, the exchange of present con-


Preface

sumption for future consumption. We draw on the results of this analysis in the book's
second half to throw light on the macroeconomic implications of the current account.

New to the Sixth Edition
For this sixth edition of International Economics: Theory and Policy, we have extensively
redesigned several chapters. These changes respond both to users' suggestions and to some
important developments on the theoretical and practical sides of international economics.
The most far-reaching changes are the following:
Chapter 9, The Political Economy of Trade Policy This chapter now includes
the role of special-interest payments in influencing political decisions over trade policy.
Coverage of the World Trade Organization is brought up to date.
Chapter I I, Controversies in Trade Policy A new title signals that this chapter
expands its coverage beyond its predecessor's focus on strategic trade policy. In addition,
Chapter 11 now covers the recent globalization debate—including the effects of trade on
income distribution and the environment, as well as the role of international labor standards.
Chapter 12, National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments
The revised Chapter 12 reflects the new balance of payments accounting conventions
adopted by the United States and other countries.
Chapter 18, The International Monetary System, 1870-1973 This chapter
now pays more attention to the political economy of exchange rate regimes, using as an
example the battle over the gold standard that dominated American politics in the late
nineteenth century.
Chapter 19, Macroeconomic Policy and Coordination under Floating

Exchange Rates We have replaced the detailed two-country model of earlier editions
with a brief intuitive discussion of the major results on international policy repercussions.
That change allows the instructor to focus more on important policy issues and less on dry
technical details.
Chapter 20, Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience As
recently as the mid-1990s, Europe's vision of a single currency looked like a distant and
possibly unreachable goal. As of 2002, however, twelve European countries had replaced
their national currencies with the euro, and others are poised to follow. Chapter 20 has been
revised to cover the first years of experience with the euro.
Chapter 21,The Global Capital Market: Performance and Policy Problems
To make room for more topical material elsewhere in the book, we have streamlined this
chapter by removing the detailed exposition of Eurocurrency creation contained in earlier
editions.

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Preface
In addition to these structural changes, we have updated the book in other ways to maintain current relevance. Thus we extend our coverage of the welfare effect of newly industrializing countries' exports on more advanced economies (Chapter 5); we update the discussion of Japanese policy toward the semiconductor industry (Chapter 11); we discuss Japan's
liquidity trap (Chapter 17) and evidence on the effect of currency unions on trade volume
(Chapter 20); and we recount the collapse of Argentina's currency in 2002 (Chapter 22).

Learning Features
This book incorporates a number of special learning features that will maintain students'
interest in the presentation and help them master its lessons.
Case Studies
Theoretical discussions are often accompanied by case studies that perform the threefold
role of reinforcing material covered earlier, illustrating its applicability in the real world,

and providing important historical information.
Special Boxes
Less central topics that nonetheless offer particularly vivid illustrations of points made in
the text are treated in boxes. Among these are the political backdrops of Ricardo's and
Hume's theories (pp. 59 and 540); the surprising potential importance of NAFTA's effect on
California's demand for water (p. 227); the astonishing ability of disputes over banana
trade to generate acrimony among countries far too cold to grow any of their own bananas
(p. 245); the story of the Bolivian hyperinflation (p. 380); and the 1994 speculative attack
on the Mexican peso (p. 506).
Captioned Diagrams
More than 200 diagrams are accompanied by descriptive captions that reinforce the discussion in the text and help the student in reviewing the material.
Summary and Key Terms
Each chapter closes with a summary recapitulating the major points. Key terms and phrases
appear in boldface type when they are introduced in the chapter and are listed at the end of
each chapter. To further aid student review of the material, key terms are italicized when
they appear in the chapter summary.
Problems
Each chapter is followed by problems intended to test and solidify students' comprehension.
The problems range from routine computational drills to "big picture" questions suitable for
classroom discussion. In many problems we ask students to apply what they have learned to
real-world data or policy questions.
Further Reading
For instructors who prefer to supplement the textbook with outside readings, and for students who wish to probe more deeply on their own, each chapter has an annotated bibliography that includes established classics as well as up-to-date examinations of recent issues.


Preface

Study Guide, Instructor's Manual, and Web Site
International Economics: Theory and Policy is accompanied by a Study Guide written by
Linda S. Goldberg of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Michael W. Klein of Tufts

University, and Jay C. Shambaugh of Dartmouth College. The Study Guide aids students by
providing a review of central concepts from the text, further illustrative examples, and
additional practice problems. An Instructor's Manual, also by Linda S. Goldberg, Michael
W. Klein, and Jay C. Shambaugh, includes chapter overviews, answers to the end-of-chapter problems, and suggestions for classroom presentation of the book's contents. The Study
Guide and Instructor's Manual have been updated to reflect the changes in the sixth edition.
We are also pleased to recommend the companion Web site to accompany International
Economics, Sixth Edition, at www.aw.com/krugman_obstfeld. The site offers students
self-check quizzes for each chapter, links to sites of interest, and occasional updates on latebreaking developments. All new to the site for this edition is an animated PowerPoint program of the text's figures and tables, prepared by Iordanis Petsas of the University of
Florida under the direction of Professor Elias Dinopoulos. And also featured on the Web site
is a brand-new, comprehensive Test Bank for the instructor, prepared by Yochanan Shachmurove of the City College of the City University of New York and the University of Pennsylvania, and Mitchell H. Kellman of the City College of the City University of New York
and the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. The Test Bank offers a rich
array of multiple-choice and essay questions, plus mathematical and graphical problems, for
each textbook chapter.
For those interested in course management, a Course Compass Web site is also available.
Contact your Addison-Wesley sales representative for details.

Acknowledgments
Our primary debts are to Jane E. Tufts, the development editor, and to Sylvia Mallory and
Denise Clinton, the economics editors in charge of the project. Jane's judgment and skill
have been reflected in all six editions of this book; we cannot thank her enough for her contributions. Heather Johnson's efforts as project editor are greatly appreciated. We thank the
other editors who helped make the first five editions as good as they were.
We owe a debt of gratitude to Galina Hale, who painstakingly updated data, checked
proofs, and critiqued chapters. Annie Wai-Kuen Shun provided sterling assistance. For
constructive suggestions we thank Syed M. Ahsan, Daniel Borer, Petra Geraats, Alan M.
Taylor, Hans Visser, and Mickey Wu.
We thank the following reviewers for their recommendations and insights:
Michael Arghyrou, Brunei University, U.K.
Debajyoti Chakrabarty, Rutgers University
Adhip Chaudhuri, Georgetown University
Barbara Craig, Oberlin College

Robert Driskill, Vanderbilt University
Hugh Kelley, Indiana University
Michael Kevane, Santa Clara University

xxvii