Evaluating the impacts of climate change on livelihoods of small scale fishermen in coastal settlements in khanh hoa province, vietnam

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS

EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE,
VIETNAM

MASTER THESIS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND
CLIMATE CHANGE

KHANH HOA – 2018


MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS

EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF
SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA
PROVINCE, VIETNAM

MASTER THESIS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
Major:
Topic allocation Decision
Decision on establishing the
Committee:

Defense date:
Supervisors:
Prof. Claire Armstrong
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Duy
Chairman:
(Full name)

(signature)

Faculty of Graduate Studies:
(Full name)

(signature)

KHANH HOA – 2018


UNDERTAKING
I undertake that the thesis entitled: “EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL
SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE, VIETNAM” is my own work. The work
has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted.

…... Date

Month

Year

Author

(Signature and full name)

iii


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express appreciation to the Faculty and Staff / Department of Economics
and Management, Nha Trang University and professors of Norhed Master Program for their
generous contributions towards my academic sojourn and the completion of my thesis.
Special mention goes to my enthusiastic supervisor, Professor Claire Armstrong
(University of Tromsoe, Norway) for her tremendous academic support and advice. Similar,
profound gratitude goes to Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Duy (University of Nha Trang, Vietnam), who
has been a dedicated mentor and advisor. I am also particularly indebted to him for his support.
Finally, but by no means least, special thanks go to the God Mighty God Jehovah and
to my late parents, Mr Joseph S. Morris and Fatu M. Roberts, for their support towards my
academic sojourn. I would also like to thank my beloved Aunt, Sponsor, and Guidant - Aunt
Janet Mayson who has always been there for me from the start. Special thanks go to my Sis.
Debra Mayson, Bro. Daniel Johnson, and to my brothers, sisters, and friends for supporting me
spiritually and mentally throughout my master studies.

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AC

Adaptive Capacity

CCA

Climate Change Adaptation

CCFSC

Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control

DFID

Department for International Development is a United Kingdom

E

Exposure

EEZ

Exclusive Economic Zone

EM-DAT

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

ENSO

El Niño Southern Oscillation

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GSO

General Statistics Office,

IDS

Institute of Development Studies

IFEP, RIMF Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning and Research Institute for
Marine Fisheries
IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISPONRE

Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment

JICA

Japan International Cooperation Agency

JSPS-VAST

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Vietnamese Academy
of Science and Technology

MDGs

Millennium Development Goals

MONRE

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

S

Sensitivity

SI

Sensitivity Index

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNISDR

UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction

USGS

United States Geological Survey

VBN

Vietnam Breaking News:

VI

Vulnerability Index

WB

World Bank.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

UNDERTAKING ........................................................................................................... iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................iv
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ..........................................................................................v
LIST OF TABLES ...........................................................................................................ix
LIST OF FIGURES ..........................................................................................................x
ABSTRACT .....................................................................................................................xi

CHAPTER ONE ...............................................................................................................1
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................1
1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the Problem ...........................................................................................5
1.3 Objectives of the Research .........................................................................................6
1.4 Research Questions .....................................................................................................7
1.5 Significance of the Research ......................................................................................7
1.6 Limitation of the Research .........................................................................................7
1.7 Structure of the Research ............................................................................................8
CHAPTER TWO ............................................................................................................10
LITERATURE REVIEW/THEORITCAL FRAMEWORK .........................................10
2.0 A Brief Understanding of Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate
Change............................................................................................................................. 10
2.1 Causes of Climate Change ........................................................................................13
2.2 Potential Consequences of Climate Change ............................................................ 13
2.3 Climate Change and Small Scale Fishing Activities in Vietnam ............................ 14
2.4 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptations ...........................................................15
2.4.1 Background theory for the adaptation to climate change of aquaculture farmers 16
2.5

Theoretical Framework: Sustainable Livelihood Approach ................................ 18

2.5.1 Overview of Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) .......................................19
2.5.2 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework .............................................................. 20
2.6 Perception on the Effects of Climate Change on Fishermen’s Income - Developing
the Hypotheses ................................................................................................................27
CHAPTER THREE ........................................................................................................30
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY .........................................................30
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3.0 Introduction ...............................................................................................................30
3.1

Methodological Approach: SLA Strategy and Application ................................ 30

3.2

Study Area ............................................................................................................34

3.3

Targeted Population, Sample Size, and Sample ..................................................36

3.4

Methods of Data Collection .................................................................................37

3.5

Methods of Data Analysis ....................................................................................42

3.5.1

General Survey and FGD Data Analysis ..........................................................42

CHAPTER FOUR...........................................................................................................47
RESEARCH FINDINGS ................................................................................................ 47
4.0 Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Fishermen ..................................................47
4.2 Factors Influencing Fishermen’s Yearly Income – Regression Output ..................53

4.3 Focus Group Discussion Findings ............................................................................54
4.3.1 Tool 1: Livelihoods Vulnerability Matrix ............................................................. 55
4.3.2 Tool 2: Pair-Wise Ranking ....................................................................................56
4.3.3 Tool 3: Preference Ranking of Preferred Coping and Adaptive Strategies ........57
4.4. Impacts of Storms, Heavy and Long rainfall, and Flooding on Livelihood Assets
and Activities - Findings .................................................................................................58
4.4.1 Impact of Storms (Typhoon) ..................................................................................59
4.4.2 Impact of Heavy and long Rainfall........................................................................60
4.4.3 Impact of Flooding ................................................................................................ 60
4.5 Fishermen and their Families Access to Livelihood Assets ....................................61
4.6 Fishermen and their families’ Preparedness for and Adaptation to Climate Change
.........................................................................................................................................62
4.7 Types of Coping Strategies and Adaptation............................................................. 63
4.7.1 Institutional Profiling: Venn Diagram...................................................................64
CHAPTER FIVE ............................................................................................................65
RESULTS, DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ...............65
5.0 Introduction ...............................................................................................................65
5.1 Vulnerability Context ............................................................................................... 66
5.2 Livelihoods Assets ....................................................................................................69
5.2.1 Human and Social Capital/Assets .........................................................................69
5.2.2 Natural Capital and Physical Capital/Assets .......................................................70
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5.2.3 Financial Capital ...................................................................................................70
5.3 Policies, Institutions, and Processes .........................................................................73
5.4 Livelihood Strategies and Livelihood Outcomes .....................................................74
5.5 Conclusion and Recommendations ..........................................................................75
5.5.1 Addressing the Research Objectives .....................................................................75
5.5.2 Recommendations ..................................................................................................78

REFERENCES ...............................................................................................................79
Appendix

viii


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Sample Population by Study Sites ................................................................................... 36
Table 2: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fishermen .............................................................. 48
Table 3: The Relationship between Fishing Activities and Weather/Climate Condition ........ 51
Table 4: Severity of Effects (SOE) of Environmental and Extreme Weather and Climate
Events/Issues

....................................................................................................................... 53

Table 5: Factors Influencing Fishermen’s Yearly Income – Regression Output...................... 54
Table 6: Livelihoods Vulnerability Matrix for Both Villages ..................................................... 56
Table 7: Pair-Wise Ranking of Climate Change Impacts (N=10) ............................................ 57
Table 8: Preference Ranking of Preferred Coping and Adaptive Strategies ............................. 58
Table 9: Fishermen’s Coping Strategies and Adaptation Currently Undertaken ..................... 63

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework ..................................................................... 21
Figure 2: Livelihood Assets/ Capitals of a Fishing Community............................................... 22
Figure 3: Map of Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam ....................................................................... 35

Figure 4: Fishermen’s Awareness/Knowledge of Climate Change ......................................... 49
Figure 5: Environmental and Climate Events/Issues Experienced in Recent Years (in % of
respondents’ identification) ............................................................................................................ 52
Figure 6: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Storm (Typhoon)59
Figure 7: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Heavy & Long
Rainfall .......................................................................................................................................... 60
Figure 8: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Flood ..................... 61
Figure 9: Access to Livelihoods Assets/Capitals ....................................................................... 62
Figure 10: Fishermen and their families’ Preparedness for Climate Change ......................... 63
Figure 11: Relationship of Stakeholders and Fishermen .......................................................... 64

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ABSTRACT
This research recognizes the importance of evaluating the impacts of climate change on
livelihoods of small-scale fishermen in coastal settlements, focusing on Vinh Luong, Nha Trang
City and Ninh Ich Ward, Ninh Hoa – Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam. Evaluating these
fishermen’s perception on the impacts of climate change, discovering the actual realities and
impacts, and addressing the gaps are crucial because a deep understanding of how exposed and
vulnerable these fishermen are and how they are coping and adapting have great implications
on policy formulation and management options. As such, the sustainable livelihoods framework
was adopted, modified, and served as a guide of engaging the study with both quantitative and
qualitative methods. One of the hypotheses is that to ascertain whether or not the current status
of fishing activities and social capital have significant impacts on fishermen’s income.
Two main survey tools were employed to provide answers to the study’s objectives
which included: structured-household interviews and focus group discussion. Data on sociodemographics, awareness and perception on climate change and its impacts, and livelihoods
were collected from 50 households. Overall, fishery-based livelihoods in households of Vinh
Luong and Nich Ich endure much impact from extreme weather and climate-related events. It
was realized that these communities are exposed because fisher folks live near the coastline,

have limited capacity, and livelihoods are heavily dependent upon declining fish resources. One
interesting finding that became a reality through the regression analysis is that fishing activities
were found to have negative correlation with fishermen’s income which was not in line with
some previous studies and literatures. Moreover, the findings revealed that lack of capacity and
climate experts have resulted into greater exposure to the effects of extreme weather-climate
related disasters and events, decrease in fish stock as a result of warming temperature and much
catch pressure on fish stock resources, and lack of participation in major decision making in

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these communities’ affairs – were found to be the reasons behind the low ability and capacity
of these communities to withstand and/or to be resilient to these extreme weather and climate
issues and other socio-economic challenges.
Two main entry points are recommended for future intervention to assist these fishing
communities in order to manage the exploitation and sustainability of fisheries resources, to
increase their resilience, and to sustain better livelihoods conditions – a) more focus should be
directed on the improvement of human and social capital and b) the need to strengthen political
and institutional structuring of these communities through more participation and integration
approaches. These could be policies options to making fisher-folks’ physical, financial and
natural capitals more effective and efficient, thereby increasing their capacity and resiliency to
face the challenges and risks climate change poses and other socio-economic challenges and
constraints.
Keywords: Climate Change Impacts, Extreme Weather and Climate Events, Sustainable
Livelihoods, and Fisher folks’ Adaptation

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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
Humans have long recognized that climate conditions influence their way of life in
many ways such as natural changes occurring in physical environments and extreme weather
and climate events being triggered by changing technologies and innovations humans develop
to satisfy their needs and wants. Changes in weather and climate conditions may be due or
partly due to natural causes but it is certain that most of these changes are due to human
activities (IPCC, 2007). For instance, global warming, sometimes referred to as climate change
to a wider extent, is the gradual increase in average temperature of the earth’s climate system,
both the atmosphere and oceans, due to emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly released by
humans (IPCC, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated in its
latest projection that the temperature of the earth’s climate system is likely to increase from
0.3°C to 1.7 °C in the lowest emissions scenario, and in the highest emissions scenario, between
2.6°C to 4.8 °C (IPCC, 2013). This points out that global warming has already triggered the
global hydrological cycle of the earth’s climate system; prompting many extreme weather
events including storms, heavy rain, sea level rise, flooding, etc.
Climate change tragedies on a global scale are enormous and devastating. According to
Living With Risk (2004, p. 5), “the consequences of disasters last much longer and are more
poignantly measured in isolation – lives lost, livelihoods disrupted, property destroyed and
environments damaged. These losses impede human development and often erode previously
hard-won individual and national accomplishments. They also compromise current and future
resources upon which societies and future generations depend.” Many countries, both
developed and developing, have experienced many setbacks from disasters emanating from
extreme weather and climate events. For instance, floods which according to the IPCC (2012)

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are the overflowing of the normal confines of a stream of water over areas that are not normally
submerged, have accounted for at least eight million deaths globally during the last century

(EM-DAT, 2004). Around 12 thousand people died and over 153 million people were impacted
all over the world in 2005 due to wind storms, floods, droughts and temperature extremes (EMDAT, 2005 quoted in Lynch et al., 2008). Flood and other extreme weather disasters have been
rapidly increasing in recent years, resulting in loss of human lives, deterioration of socioeconomic status of communities, and long-lasting traumatization of victims (Living with Risk,
2004). Globally, the number of people at risk has been increasing by 70 to 80 million each year
and most of this estimate is in the developing world, where poverty levels are high and where
the biggest burden of exposure to disasters lies (Living with Risk, 2004).
The World Bank highlighted that climate change is expected to hit hard, mostly in
developing countries that are not industrialized as compare to industrialized countries where
most of these emissions of greenhouses are released (World Bank, 2016). The atmosphere has
no borders between countries. This could, however, pose a significant challenge to the
Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations, particularly those pillars related to
reducing poverty and hunger, and promoting environmental sustainability, mostly in
developing countries. According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2016 (Kreft et al. 2014), all
of the first ten countries most affected by climatic risks during 1995-2014 were developing
countries, and Vietnam has been ranked the 7th on this list. The Climate Risk Index shows a
level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events that countries should understand as a
warning to be prepared for more frequent and/or more severe weather events in the future (Kreft
et al. 2014).
According to the Asia Development Bank (2009), Vietnam is one of the developing
countries that is hit hard by climate change because of its geographical location and its heavy
dependence on agricultural activities and marine resources as means of survival. In its 2009

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report, the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE),
highlighted that Vietnam is vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change, such as
warmer temperatures, increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events, drought, sea level
rise, among other climate change elements. The World Bank also proclaimed that Vietnam is
situated in one of the top spots on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in the

world (Dasgupta, et al.2009).
The coastal zone of Vietnam is rich in natural resources with high population density
and concentration of many economic activities including small scale fishing and commercial
fishing activities involving all kinds of fishing gear types. However, Vietnam’s coastline has
great potential of environmental hazards such as earthquakes, erosion, typhoons (storm), floods,
sea level rise, etc. According to a survey conducted by the Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA, 2012) on the ASEAN Regional Collaboration in Disaster Management, storm
and floods are the frequent natural disasters in Vietnam. It is estimated that Vietnam is being
hit by 4.3 storms annually. Flooding is one the widely disastrous natural events in Vietnam and
ranked second to typhoons and other forms of storms. These events pose serious challenges to
the country’s socio-economic development. Coastal residents living in areas that affected and
prone to extreme weather conditions possess little-to-no adaptive capacity and are ill-prepared
to deal with climate change consequences. Efforts have been made by the Vietnamese
Government and international partners to formulate environmental and protection policies and
programs and to strengthen communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity, but these actions
have not been able to achieve its goals and still remain ineffective (OXFAM, 2008).
The impacts of climate change are expected to be worst on a number of sectors in
Vietnam (ISPONRE, 2009) including the agricultural sector which involves fish production by
small scale fisher folks. Storms (typhoons), heavy rain, sea level rise, flooding among other
fundamental climate change elements, are likely to intensify because of unpredictability of

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extreme weather events and the changing nature of climate conditions. However, tropical
storms, typhoons, rainfall and river runoff floods are the frequent disasters in Vietnam
(Dasgupta, et al.2009). According to Blaikie (1994), the consequences of storms and floods due
to climate change include: coastal habitat loss, damages of infrastructures near coastlines,
reduction in fish catch, and reduction of fisher folks’ income. This could be expected to lead to
reduction in fish production and have negative impacts on many people who depend on small

scale fishing activities as the major source of livelihood activities. Several climate disasters
including storms and floods have already taken place in Vietnam, displacing thousands and
leaving various communities under water on several occasions. For instance, storms and floods
did not only damage houses, roads, harbors, harvest, etc. but also these climate change events
caused a great number of lives lost. From 1979 to 2003, loss of hundreds of lives and damages
of hundreds billion VND were caused by storms and floods, annually (JSPS-VAST, 2007).
Climate change exposes humans to conditions beyond their realms. If humans lack the
knowledge and the capacity to deal with these abnormal conditions, the economic and human
losses can be huge. Vietnamese policy makers require not only reliable assessments of extreme
weather events, but also an understanding of the socio-economic implication of these hazards.
Thus, this study explores the impacts of climate change on small scale fisher folks’ livelihoods
in coastal settlements of Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam. More explicitly, this study aims to
provide an in-depth understanding of the socio-economic impact of the most recent extreme
weather and climate events including storms, heavy and long rain, and flooding. In particular,
the research focused on households’ awareness and perception of climate change, determining
climate change impacts on fishing activities and on other socioeconomic factors relative to
fishermen households, and uncovering adaptive strategies adopted to climate change impacts,
with a view to recommending more effective adaptation options.

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1.2 Statement of the Problem
As stated above, Vietnam is one of the developing countries most exposed to climate
change by nature of its geography. Twenty-four percent of Vietnam’s population lives in coastal
districts (Tran Duc Thanh et al, 2004). Storms and related damages from floods and tidal surges
are among the most significant climate stresses that disrupting livelihoods for coastal residents
(King et al, 2009). Coastal mangroves, salt marshes and coral reefs – critical to breeding marine
life – are all endangered (IPCC, 2007). Hence, the problem which this study addresses is the
socio-economic impacts of climate change on small-scale fishermen’s livelihoods in coastal

settlements of Khanh Hoa Province. The study sites chosen are situated in coastal regions which
are severely storm and flood affected zones.
Many fishing communities in Vietnam, especially in coastal areas, are poor and lack the
capital as well as the necessary knowledge for coping and adapting to the impacts of climate
change (King et al, 2009), resulting into many constraints and challenges of fisher folks.
Especially in Khana Hoa Province area. Khanh Hoa Province’s coastline has been exploited
because of its abundance of fish species (about 600 fish species mostly pelagic) with a
considerate amount being of high economic value, in addition to other divers natural resources
and features (IEFP & RIMF, 2005). Khanh Hoa’s coast holds a considerable relative advantage
in terms of marine resources but faces many environmental issues emanating from critical
climate conditions. For instance, it was reported on November 4, 2015 Edition by the Dantri
Newspaper that serious flooding affected more than 700 households in Khanh Hoa Province's
Cam Nghia District. The floods submerged 30 hectares of shrimp-raising areas, causing an
estimated VND12 billion (US$615,000) in losses, while landslides have caused losses upwards
of VND 4 billion ($205,000) (VBN, 2016). In Khanh Hoa Province, fisher folks and other
coastal residents are heavily dependent on small scale fishing activities, aquaculture, crop
production and vegetable gardening, and some petit trading activities. Owing to Khanh Hoa’s

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geographical location, that is, situated in a coastal zone, these fishing communities have limited
capacity and capability to control and withstand strong windstorms ensuing from the ocean and
heavy rain from the atmosphere. As a result, many households experience flying roofs off their
houses caused by storms, flooding in their houses and around the community from rising tides
and heavy rainfall, fear of fishing due to storm surges and torrential rains, among other extreme
weather conditions, exacerbating many already prevalent socio-economic problems. Moreover,
these events cause migration and displacement of households from their usual dwelling places
and have varying impacts on these communities’ infrastructure, health conditions, habitation,
and other means of livelihoods.

1.3 Objectives of the Research
In general, the study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the socio-economic
impact of most recent extreme weather and climate events including storms, heavy and long
rainfall, and floods impacts on small-scale fishermen’s livelihoods in Khanh Hoa Province,
with a view of finding more effective adaptation and management options. Two coastal
communes in Khanh Hoa Province - Vinh Luong, Nha Trang City and Ninh Ich, Ninh Hoa were
chosen as the studied sites. The specific objectives of the study were as follows:
1. To assess fishermen’s awareness and perception of climate change and its impacts;
2. To ascertain climate change impacts and other factors that are significantly influencing
small-scale fisher folks livelihoods in recent years, particularly impacts on vulnerability,
fishing activities, income level, and other socio-economic variables;
3. To discover coping and adaptive strategies adopted and level of satisfaction applying
them; and
4. To recommend more effective adaptation and management options.

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1.4 Research Questions
This research endeavors to answer the following questions:
1. How aware and perceived are fishermen about climate change and its impacts?
2. What are the various impacts of climate change and other factors that are significantly
influencing small-scale fisher folks’ livelihoods in recent years, particularly on fisher
folks’ vulnerability, fishing activities, income level, and other socio-economic
variables?
3) What are the coping and adaptive strategies adopted and level of satisfaction of fisher
folks?
4) What can be done to reduce the impact of these extreme weather and climate events and
to strengthen fisher folks’ resilience and adaptive capacity?
1.5 Significance of the Research

This research is significant in a sense that the study of climate change and its impacts
can be a learning paradigm where environmental issues and climate sciences are fully engaged
to enhance interested people’s knowledge. Importantly, the findings of this thesis are expected
to expand our knowledge on climate change effects, provide added information for other
environmental studies and increase knowledge of environmentalists and fisher folks, the
government, and other stakeholders in order to better understand and design stronger and
sustainable adaptation mechanisms to cope with extreme weather and climate events.
1.6 Limitation of the Research
Due to the scope of this research, there are limitations that the researcher acknowledges.
Some to include: a) the un-cooperative attitude of many respondents; many thought that the
researcher have something to do with information given considering the sensitive nature, other

7


than for academic purpose. Initially, the total sample considered for this entire research was
100 but it was later cut-down by 50% including FGD participants. The situation appears to be
that it is very difficult for a foreign student to extract information from locals. This situation
was also experienced by the researcher on numerous occasions during class exercises and
excursions in remote regions during the course of the program. This could, however, be due to
the fear of locals regarding the dissemination of information into the wrong hands or for some
political and economic reasons, b) lack of opportunity to meet key stakeholders; unwillingness
of key individuals in the environmental protection and fishery system to participate in interview,
and c) lack of finances. Despite these constraints, the researcher endeavored with great patience
and determination and acquired the relevant data that enable the execution of this investigation.
1.7 Structure of the Research
This thesis has been divided into five major parts. The first part includes introduction,
statement of the problem, objectives of the research, research questions, limitations of the
research, and structure of the research. The introduction part presents the basic information on
the background of some prevailing climate change issues around the world and its impact and

specifically, highlighted some insights of its increasing disasters in Vietnam. The problem
statement presents the background information on the research questions and the issues and
challenges that needed to be addressed. The objectives stated also demonstrate the importance
of this research. The limitations that have been encounter for writing this thesis are also
presented.
The second part deals with the literature review/theoretical background of the study. In
this part of the thesis, the researcher also chooses to present and analyze the theoretical
framework of evaluating livelihoods as well as drawing upon hypotheses.

8


The third part of the thesis elaborated on the description of the research methodology
employed to achieve the study’s aim and objectives. This part is structured into five sections.
The first section explains the methodological approaches. The second section gives an overview
of the study context and justifies the selection of study site. The third section describes the
targeted population, sample size, and sample. The fourth section describes the methods of data
collection. The fifth section describes the methods of data analysis.
The final part of the thesis contains the result of the research on climate change
impacts on livelihoods of fisher folks, followed by discussions. The content of the thesis ends
with conclusion which deals with summary of the entire report.

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CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW/THEORITCAL FRAMEWORK
2.0 A Brief Understanding of Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change
It is vitally important to understand the difference between weather, climate, climate
variability, and climate change in order to get deeper understanding of climate change and its

related issues. Weather, as often viewed, is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and its
short-term variation in minutes to days or weeks. It is the current state of the atmosphere, mainly
with respect to its effects on human activities and habitation (IPCC, 2007). Generally, people
usually perceive weather as the combination of days or weeks’ temperature, precipitation,
cloudiness, wind, etc. According to the IPCC (2012, p. 557) definition, “Climate in a narrow
sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical
description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time
ranging from months to thousands or millions of years”. Climate is often viewed as the
seasonal trend instead of day-to-day or on the basis of few weeks like weather. For instance,
some dry seasons are colder than others. Some years have more intense rainfall than others.
These are conditions of the ‘climate’ situation. People often view climate variability in the
same way as they view weather variability. For instance, general public statements like: “the
last few rainy seasons have seemed short,” or “there seems to be more heavy rainstorms in
recent years”, reflect this perspective. Climate scientists, however, think of climate variability
as the way climate fluctuates (above or below a weather average value) in the very long term,
probably close to thousands or millions of years (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009).
As stated earlier, it is important for one to understand the difference between weather, climate,
climate variability, and climate change in order to get a deeper understanding of climate change
and its related issues. Changes in weather patterns may be abrupt and noticeable whereas

10


changes in the climate are unpredictable or less noticeable because of the longevity of
observations undertaken by scientists. For instance, specific weather in a region experienced in
the last days, weeks, or months may have a slight difference from one year to the next; perhaps
a few degrees hotter, or a few degrees colder, which may lead to a conclusion by many people
that the climate is changing. This could, however, be a rapid shift in climate conditions, but it
is highly likely that these fluctuations are just natural from one short period to another short
period. Because many people experience and get notions of fluctuations in weather patterns or

climate conditions over the years or in their life-time, and open media often mention climate
change in daily stories, it is very easy or highly likely for one to confuse these climate conditions
– weather, climate, and climate variability as climate change.
Nevertheless, the Earth's climate systems have changed and these changes have been
recorded throughout history. However, many scientists believe that far less of these climate
changes are being influenced by small variations (natural causes) in earth’s orbital systems that
eventually change the quantity of solar power the earth receives. Rather they believe that far
more of these climate changes are being influenced and accelerated by the continuous release
of greenhouse gases by human industrialized activities which have significantly altered the
Earth’s Climate system including the atmosphere, the land, and ocean ecosystems (IPCC,
2004).
During the mid-19th century, the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases were studied by physicist John Tyndall. He recognized the effects of natural
greenhouse gases and suggested that changes in the composition of the atmosphere could result
in climatic variations. A few years after in 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius projected
that carbon dioxide released in a significant amount in the atmosphere could significantly
change the surface (both land and ocean) temperature through the greenhouse effect (NRC,
2006). These and later studies indicate that there is little doubt that increased releases of

11


greenhouses gases into the atmosphere will cause the earth to eventually warm in response to
these alterations.
However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2007)
reported that carbon dioxide is now 30 percent higher than it was 150 years ago. Carbon dioxide
concentration has not been as high as it is now in the last 400,000 years. While some of the
carbon dioxide released is absorbed into the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, about 50% of it
remains in the atmosphere. Economic and industrial activities emanating from human activities
also help to accelerate emissions of several other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As a

result, more and more heat has been trapped by increasing the volume of these greenhouse
gases, leading to an increase in the global temperature in the past one hundred years what
scientists refer to as “global warming”(Gillis, 2015).
Still the question remains: what is climate change? According to the IPCC (2012, p.
557), Climate change is defined as: “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified
(e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties
and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer”. Moreover, climate
change has also been defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC, 1992, p. 3) as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. According to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the word ‘change’ in the
terminology to ‘climate change’ is to emphasize that atmospheric pollution by greenhouse
emissions could result in extreme weather events that can remain trapped in the atmosphere for
tens or hundreds of years (UNFCCC, 1992). Climate change is not only limited to global
warming. Rising global temperatures could also alter processes such as droughts degrading land
and water resources. Since industrial activities lead to gaseous evaporation rates in the

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atmosphere holding tremendous heat and water quantities, it triggers storms and other extreme
climate events and they are now becoming more frequent and extreme (IPCC, 2014; UNFCC,
1992).
However, climate change has resulted in a wide range of environmental and socioeconomic effects. It has affected water resources, fishing activities, agriculture, aquaculture,
food security, human-health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. Environment and socioeconomic effects have triggered actions among households, communities, local and national
governments (UNFCC, 2007). Both developed and developing countries within the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are actively discussing and negotiating ways

to deal with the issues of climate change.

2.1 Causes of Climate Change
For over centuries, the Earth’s climate has being changing back and forth in different
regions, according to many scientific reports and articles. However, factors that cause climate
change can be divided into two main categories - those related to natural processes and those
related to human activity, as stated earlier (IPCC, 2014). Many climate scientists are certain
that the main cause of climate change is the emission of greenhouse gases released by humans
into the atmosphere (IPCC, 2014). Gases that cause the greenhouse effect (warming that
eventually develops when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space) which
include: Water vapor, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane, Nitrous oxide, and Chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) (IPCC, 2014). Climate change is also caused by natural causes through series of events.
Some to include: volcano activity, solar cycle activity and cloud, wildfire activity, changes in
ocean chemistry, and tectonic plates/ continental drift activity.
2.2 Potential Consequences of Climate Change
The consequences of climate change are difficult to predict, but some effects are highly
certain as warned by the IPCC. The IPCC warned if humans continue to release greenhouse

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