Đánh giá tác động kinh tế của biến đổi khí hậu đến khai thác thủy sản và giải pháp ứng phó của việt nam tt tiếng anh

MINISTRY OF PLANNING
AND INVESTMENT

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION
AND TRAINING

CENTRAL INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

NGUYEN THI VINH HA

EVALUATING ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING
SOLUTIONS OF VIETNAM

Major: Economic Development
Code: 9.31.01.05

ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN ECONOMICS

Hanoi - 2019


The thesis is completed at:
Central Institute for Economic Management

Scientific instructors:
1. Dr. Nguyen Manh Hai
2. Dr. Nguyen Viet Cuong

Reviewer 1: Prof.Dr. Ngo Thang Loi
Reviewer 2 : Assoc.Prof.Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Thanh

Reviewer 3 : Assoc.Prof.Dr. Vu Si Tuan

The thesis will be defended against the Thesis Assessment
Committee of Institute Level, to be held at Central Institute for
Economic Management at …. date ……….. 2019

The thesis could be found at:
Library of Central Institute for Economic Management
National Library, Hanoi


1

INTRODUCTION
1. Rationales for studying thesis topic
The fisheries sector plays a significant role in providing human
food and livelihoods. Vietnam is one of the 25 major countries in the
world for catch fisheries.
The world is facing a series of pressing environmental issues, in which
climate change is a serious threat to people and nature on global scale and
requires all countries to work together for mitigation and adaptation.
Fisheries is one of the first sectors affected by climate change,
including losses of revenue and income of businesses and households
in many areas, although sometimes climate change increases the
benefits of aquatic products for some other countries and regions.
It is expected that Vietnam's catch fisheries will be affected by
climate change. However, studies on impacts of climate change on
fisheries in Vietnam are quite few. Therefore, it is necessary to carry
out research to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change on
catch fisheries in Vietnam to provide appropriate coping solutions.

2. Purpose and significance of the thesis research
The thesis aims to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change
on catch fisheries in Vietnam, thereby proposing solutions to State
policies and activities of fishing communities to cope with climate
change to the years 2025 and 2055.
On scientific significance, the thesis justifies theoretical basis and
methods of evaluating economic impacts of climate change on
fisheries. The thesis also develops a model to evaluate current
situation and forecast the economic impacts of climate change on
catch fisheries of Vietnam in terms of output and currency.


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On practical significance, the research result is an important input for
Vietnam's fisheries sector to develop a plan to cope with and adapt to
climate change. The thesis also makes sense thanks to proposing solutions
to the fisheries sector in response to the impacts of climate change.
3. Structure of the thesis
In addition to the introduction, the conclusions and the recommendations
on further studies, the thesis includes the following contents:
Chapter 1 – Literature review in economic impacts of climate
change on catch fisheries and coping solutions
Chapter 2 – Theoretical basis, methods to evaluate economic
impacts of climate change on catch fisheries and coping solutions
Chapter 3 – Current situation of economic impacts of climate
change on catch fisheries and coping solutions for Vietnam
Chapter 4 – Forecasting impacts of climate change on catch
fisheries until 2025, 2055 and proposing coping solutions for Vietnam
CHAPTER 1 – LITERATURE REVIEW IN ECONOMIC

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES
AND COPING SOLUTIONS
1.1 Literarure review in economic impact of climate change on
catch fisheries and coping solutions
1.1.1

Literature review of studies abroad

Researches by many authors show that economic impacts of
climate change on commercial fishing includes several factors, such
as changes in aquatic distribution and stocks, leading to changes in
investment capital, labour, market, and distribution of profits and costs
among related parties, long-term profitability, and ability to cope with
climate change.


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It is possible to classify quantitative research methods of economic
impacts of climate change on commercial fishing in two groups: (1)
group of econometric methods, including production function models,
bioeconomic models, spatial simulation models, time series data
models, and integrated assessment models; and (2) group of noneconometric methods, including cost benefit analysis and contingent
evaluation method.
Studies show that there are three directions to cope with climate
change, including mitigation, adaptation, and integrated management
of natural resources. Authors have proposed various measures to help
catch fisheries respond to climate change, such as: reducing fuel
subsidies; restoring mangroves and protecting coral reefs to help
absorb CO2; implementing sustainable fisheries; allowing large

capacity fishing ships to move flexibly; developing alternative
livelihoods to support coastal communities; and integratedly
managing natural resources to adapt to climate change.
1.1.2

Literature review of domestic studies

In Vietnam there have been a number of studies on economic
impacts of climate change on catch and aquaculture. Authors propose
several solutions such as applying an ecosystem approach to fisheries
management, improving early warning systems and enhancing
maritime safety, reducing over-exploitation, establishing protected
marine seas, livelihood diversification, and raising awareness and
capacity to adapt to climate change.
1.1.3 Limitations of previous studies (research gaps) and key issues
that the thesis will focus on solving
There are few quantitative evaluations of economic impacts of
climate change on commercial fishing in tropical areas. Most studies


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assess impacts of climate change on specific aquatic species. There is
no disaggregation of losses to producer and consumer surpluses. Many
studies only focus on forecasting losses based on revenue or damage
to producers' costs. Moreover, valuing economic impacts of climate
change on catch fisheries at national scale is not available in Vietnam.
There are few domestic studies mentioning climate change response
solutions of the Government.
Some of the above limitations will be dealt with and resolved in

this thesis. Specifically, the thesis will evaluate economic impacts of
climate change on catch fisheries in tropical sea of Vietnam, quantify
impacts, including losses (or benefits) of fishers and consumers at the
national scale. The thesis will also study solutions that the
Government has conducted and propose recommendations to help
fishers effectively respond to climate change.
1.2 Direction to solve research problems of the thesis
1.2.1 Research objectives and questions
The main research objective of the thesis is to evaluate economic
impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam. Three
specific research objectives are: (1) Justifying theoretical basis and
methods for evaluating economic impacts of climate change on catch
fisheries and coping solutions; (2) Evaluating and forecasting
economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam;
and (3) Proposing solutions for catch fisheries to respond to climate
change in Vietnam.
Research questions to be addressed includes: How does climate
change affect fish resources and fisheries? Are there any solutions to
respond to climate change impacts on catch fisheries? Experiences of
economies in the world in coping with climate change for catch


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fisheries? What are economic losses (or benefits) of climate change to
producers, consumers and society in Vietnam, in terms of catch yield
and currency? What solutions are needed to respond to economic
impacts of climate change in catch fisheries of Vietnam?
There are two main research hypotheses to be tested:
H1: Climate change has a negative impact on Vietnam's fishstocks.

H2: Climate change has a negative impact on fisheries catch yield
in Vietnam.
1.2.2 Objects and scope of research
The research objects are the economic impacts of climate change
on catch fisheries and solutions for Vietnam.
Scope of contents: The study only focuses on evaluating economic
impacts of climate change on commercial fishing, not including
aquaculture. Time range: Historical data from 1976 to 2017, and
forecasts of the years 2025 and 2055. Spatial scope of the thesis is
Vietnam, including catch in coastal, inshore, offshore, open sea and
inland waters. In Vietnam, the catch of marine products accounts for
the majority of the total fishing production, so the thesis will focus on
analyzing impacts as well as making recommendations for marine
catch. The thesis also provides recommendations that can be applied
to both sea and inland waters fishing, and some recommendations are
prioritized to inland waters fishing.
1.2.3 Research approaches and methodology
1.2.3.1 Research approaches
The thesis uses a number of approaches including global approach,
systematic approach, fishing condition approach, and fish producer
and consumer approach.


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The thesis performs 4 research steps, including (1) Literature
review, (2) Understanding theoretical basis and methods of evaluating
economic impacts of climate change on fishing and solutions, (3)
Evaluating and forecasting economic impacts of climate change on
catch fisheries in Vietnam, and (4) Proposing solutions for fisheries to

coping with climate change.
1.2.3.2 Methods of collecting data and information
Desk study: Collecting published studies and data of the General
Statistics Office and specialized agencies, Vietnam living standards
survey, etc. Field survey: Interviewing fisher groups to understand
impacts of climate factors and weather conditions to fishing activities
as well as to understand the current coping measures of fishers.
1.2.3.3 Research methods
- Qualitative methods: Synthesis, analysis and reasoning to justify
theoretical basis and methods of evaluating economic impacts of
climate change on catch fisheries and response solutions; statistic
description, comparison, interpolation and extrapolation to assess the
current situation and forecast economic impacts of climate change on
catch fisheries of Vietnam; SWOT analysis to justify the rationales for
making policy proposals to cope with climate change for fishing
activities in Vietnam.
- Quantitative methods: Multivariate regression analysis using
production function model to measure and forecast the impacts of
climate change on fishstocks and catch yield Vietnam; Regression
analysis of demand function and partial equilibrium analysis to
measure the change in social surplus, thereby determining the
damages (or benefits) caused by climate change to consumers,
producers and society in the fish market.


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Tools for data processing include MS Excel, Eviews, and Stata.
1.2.3.4 Research framework
State policies

Change in
environment of
fishes

Global
climate
change
CO2
increase
Temperture
increase
Precipitation
change
Extreme
weather
phenomena

Water
temperature
pH, salinity
Oxygen
concentration
Mangroves
Coral reefs
Seagrass

Change in fish
biology and
ecology

Reproduction
Growth
Matured size
Allocation
Density
Compostion
Species
invsation/
extinction

Fish
resources
Fish stocks
Fishing area
allocation

Fishing
Fishing
infrastructure

Fish
supply

Social
surplus

Fish
demand

Consumer

surplus
Producer
surplus

Catching
Fishing logistics
Factors affecting fish
demand

Fishing
ports
Boats
Tools

Population size
Comsumption
preference
Income
Substitutes
(aquaculture products)

Fishing activities in communities

Source: Author’s suggestion
CHAPTER 2 – THEORETICAL BASIS, METHODS TO
EVALUATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON CATCH FISHERIES AND COPING SOLUTIONS
2.1 Definitions and some general issues
2.1.1

Catch fisheris

Catch fisheries, or commercial fishing, is a part of fisheries, in
addition to protection and development of aquatic resources,


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aquaculture; processing, sale, purchase, export and import of aquatic
products. Catch fishing activities play an important role in economic
development.
2.1.2

Climate change

Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate for
an extended period due to natural processes or human activities,
manifested by global warming, rising sea levels and increasing
extreme weather phenomena.
2.1.3

Economic impacts of climate change on catch fisheries

In the scope of the thesis, evaluating economic impacts of climate
change on catch fisheries is understood as analyzing and assessing the
positive, negative, short-term and long-term effects of climate change
in terms of fish stocks, fishing yield, and profit of fishers, benefits of
consumers and society in commercial fishing.
The impacts of climate change on aquatic resources are different in
various places, including positive and negative effects. Most studies

show that fish stocks tend to decrease in tropical and subtropical
waters. Inland waters fisheries also tend to be negatively affected by
climate change.
Climate change affects catching and fishing logistics, specifically
increasing number of inactive days due to bad weather, affecting
fishing infrastructure, increasing travelling time, oil and ice consumption.
Fishing technology and techniques need to be changed to adapt to climate
change. Expenses for exploration, searching and attracting aquatic
products rise. Costs of purchasing and transporting seafood also increase.
Marine catches may decrease in tropical waters and increase in
temperate regions. International studies show that potential fish stocks
and catches in Vietnam will decrease under climate change scenarios.


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2.2

Quantitative methods and models for evaluating economic
impacts of climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam

2.2.1

Focus group discussions

The author cooperated with the research team on "Economic
valuation of climate change for Northern fisheries and proposed
mitigation solutions" (Code BDKH25) in the Program "Science and
Technology for National Target Program to Respond to Climate
Change” to implement a survey in the form of focus group discussions.

The survey was conducted in 9 coastal provinces in 2014, applying
Participatory Rural Assessment (PRA) method to evaluate impacts of
extreme weather events on commercial fishing and decline in aquatic
stocks, causes of declines, response solutions of fishers and supports
from the Government and communities.
2.2.2

Impact analysis method based on production function model

The production function model aims to quantify impacts of climate
change on catch fisheries in Vietnam and has the following formula:
LnCatcht = β0 +β1T + β2LnCapacityt + β3LnLabourt + β4SSTt +
β5LnRainfallt + β6Typhoont + β7SOIt + β8D1+ β8D2 + εt

(2.4)

CPUEt = α0 + α1T + α2LnCapacityt + α3LnLabourt + α4SSTt +
α5LnRainfallt + α6Typhoont + α7SOIt + μt

(2.5)

Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) is applied to
consider the single long-term relationships among variables with small
sample size data (n ≤ 30). ARDL model takes the form as follows:
Yt = c+a1Yt-1+a2Yt-2+…+apYt-p + b0Xt + b1Xt-1 + … + bqXt-q + ut

(2.6)

In which, Y is the dependent variable, X are the explanatory
variables, a and b are the coefficients that reflect the elasticities of Y on

fish price; p and q are the number of lags of the dependent and explanatory
variables, c is the constant, t indicates time and ut is the white noise.


10

Table 2-4: Description of data used in production function model
Variables
Catcht

Description
Catch yield in year t
(tonnes)

Capacityt

Fishing effort in year t
(CV)
Catch/effort (tonnes/CV)
Total fishing labours
(persons)

CPUEt
Labourt

SSTt
Rainfallt
SOI
Typhoont

D1

D2

2.2.3
2.2.3.1

Sea surface temperature
in year t (°C)
Average precipitation in
year t (mm)
Southern Oscillation
Index
Number of typhoons in
year t
Proxies for policies to
encourage offshore
fishing under Decision
393-TTg
Proxies for effectiveness
of Law on Fisheries

Sources
- 1976 - 2010: Vietnam Institute of Fisheries
Economics and Planning (VIFEP)
- 2011 - 2014: General Statistics Office (GSO)
- 1976 - 2010: VIFEP
- 2011 - 2014: Statistical yearbooks of provinces
= Catcht/Capacityt
- 1976 - 2010: VIFEP

- Data for 1978 and 2011-2014 are missing and
interpolated using regression function
US National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)
Climate Change Knowledge Port, the World Bank
NOAA
- National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological
Forecasting (NCHMF)
- Đinh Văn Ưu (2010)
Dummy, assigned to be 0 for years before 1997, be
1 for years 1997 and later

Dummy, assigned to be 0 for years before 2003, be
1 for years 2003 and later

Partial equilibrium analysis method
Basis for model development

Partial equilibrium analysis technique is used to assess changes in
producer and consumer surpluses, based on neoclassical welfare
economics. In the thesis, the author develops Marshall demand function,
in which the quantity of demand depends on the price of aquatic
products, incomes, prices of substitutes and other exogenous factors.
2.2.3.2

Fish demand function model and data

The fish demand function has the following form:
𝑚

𝑛

Ln(Q) = β0+β1Ln(P)+β2Ln(Y)+∑𝑖=3 𝛽𝑖 𝐿𝑛(𝑃𝑖 ) + ∑𝑗=𝑚+1 𝛽𝑗 𝑋𝑗 + εt (2.9)

In which, Q is the amount of fish consumption of households, P is
the price of aquatic products, Y is the average per capita income, Pi are
the price of substitutes, and Xj are other exogenous variables that may


11

affect household consumption of aquatic products, including geographic
features (regions, location to the sea), demographic characteristics such
as age, gender, marital status and occupation of of household head.
2.3 Rationale for solutions to climate change response in catch fisheries
2.3.1 The need for solutions to cope with climate change in catch fisheries
The World Bank emphasizes three axes to be concerned in the reform
of commercial fishing: (1) economic axis to maximize profits, focusing
on the effectiveness of the fishing regime; (2) social axis to ensure equity
issues in the distribution of resources and social benefits; and (3)
environmental axis to ensure the maintenance of ecosystems and fairness
among generations while ensuring healthy economic development.
In theory, the maximum economic yield (MEY) is lower than the
maximum sustainable yield (MSY), so it is possible to simultaneously
satisfy economic optimism and sustainability. However, this
optimization is only achieved if there is no open access, which leads
to an increase in catch effort until fishing profit is zero, and catch yield
(E0) exceeds MSY (Figure 2-6).
Revenue,
Cost

Total cost

Total revenue
0

MEY MSYE0 E0

Fishing effort

Figure 2-6: Catch yields
Following social axis, commercial fishing is considered as a solution
to ensure social security. Therefore, countries may have to sacrifice
economic (or ecological) goals to allow free access to the poor.


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2.3.2 State policy solutions for catch fisheries in climate change
There are various policies in several countries include input control,
output control, technical control, buy back, economic tools such as
taxes, fees, subsidy removal, integrated response to climate change in
socio-economic

development

plan, anti-corruption, enhancing

transparency and accountability and international cooperation.
2.3.3 Solutions to commercial fishing activities in climate change

These solutions include transfer of property use ownership and
group fishing rights, co-management, strengthening fishers’ capacity
for adapting climate change, restructure of fisheries production and
developing alternative livelihoods.
2.4 Experience of some economies on application of solutions to cope
with climate change in catch fisheries and lessons for Vietnam
The Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) of the European Union (EU),
coping solutions of the United Kingdoms, Korea, Taiwan, Japan,
Malaysia and Vauatu give successful examples of responses to climate
change. Meanwhile, China 's policy on subsidizing offshore fishing
has led to over-fishing, depleting domestic aquatic resources.
For countries expecting to suffer from negative impacts of climate
change such as Vietnam, fish stocks are likely to decline, the policy
orientation is to limit catches to sustainable level. Even in the case of
positive impacts, policies to limit catch yield are still applied to
conserve aquatic species that are at risk of decline as well as to
maintain and enrich stocks of immigrant species.


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CHAPTER 3 – CURRENT SITUATION OF ECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES
AND COPING SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM
3.1 Overview of current situation of catch fisheries in Vietnam
3.1.1

The role of catch fisheries in the economy

The fisheries sector plays an important economic role, including

provision of livelihoods and employment, and foreign currencies from
exports. In addition, catch fisheries also has profound significance on
national security.
3.1.2

Status of catch fisheries development in Vietnam since 1976

The total fish reserves of Vietnam are estimated at 4.36 million
tonnes. The fishing capacity is estimated at 1.75 million tonnes. The
catch yield reached 3.4 million tonnes in 2017, of which marine the
catch output was 3.2 million tonnes. In 2016, Vietnam had more than
100,000 fishing vessels, of which about 65% of boats are under 20 CV,
operating mainly in coastal waters while this region only accounted for
11% of the exclusive economic zone. Marine fish stocks are declining
and coastal aquatic fishes are being overexploited. Fishing labours are
mainly manual and have low education level. Transmission of
experience among fishers is important, leading to the use of traditional
fishing gear and fishing methods that are harmful to coastal fisheries.
3.2 Situation of climate change in Vietnam since 1976
In the period of 1976-2017, annual average temperature, total
rainfall and number of storms in the East Sea tend to increase at the
statistical significance of 1%, the trend of change is not clear by
periods and regions. El Nino and La Nina tend to be stronger.


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3.3 Analyzing and assessing the status of economic impacts of
climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam
3.3.1

Practices of the impacts of weather and climate factors on

catch fisheries
Some studies show that impacts of climate change on aquatic
resources in Vietnam is negative in both short and long terms. Climate
change affects marine ecosystems, changes in types of populations and
migration of marine fish, changing the traditional fishing grounds.
Adult fisheries are smaller in size, higher in mortality rates. Extreme
weather phenomena such as storms and high tides, etc. are more
difficult to forecast. The fishing logistics has to change following
changes in aquatic distribution.
The preparation of storm shelters for offshore ships also needs to
be taken into account. Climate change also increase immigrant species
and fish stocks from the equatorial sea. However, this immigration
will not enough to compensate for the fish migration to the North or
to further open sea, and remaining fishes turn into smaller size.
3.3.2 Results of fisher focus group discussions on impacts of
climate change on catch fisheries
The survey showed that the commercial fishing depends heavily on
weather conditions, including storms, heavy rains, typhoons, fog, very
cold periods, and very hot periods. Monsoons also greatly affect catch
activities. Fishers commonly perceive that climate change has a
negative impact on fish stocks, in addition to other causes such as
overexploitation, pollution and fishing using destructive tools. Fishers
learn fishing and natural disaster prevention knowledge mainly via
exchanging experiences within families and communities.


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3.3.3 Results of quantitative evaluation of the economic impacts of
climate change on catch fisheries in Vietnam using
production function regression model
Tests show that there is long-term relationship among variables.
The regression models have no autocorrelation, no heteroskedasticity,
and no multicollinearity. The residuals of the models are white noise.
The coefficients are stable. Therefore, the regression models are
appropriate to the data.
In the short term, results of the models show that when sea surface
temperature rises by 1 oC, catch yield decreases in the next consecutive
three years by 15.6%, 16.0% and 15.2% respectively. Sea surface
temperature significantly reduces CPUE by 1.3%; 9.4%; 10.8% and
7.0% respectively in the next four years. If rainfall increases by 1%,
catch yield will decrease by 0.3% per year for the next three years.
However, the effect of rainfall on CPUE in the short term is not
statistically significant. It seems that rains effect catching activities
rather than fish stocks. When the number of storms increases by 1,
yield of the next 2 years decrease by 1.2%. Number of storms does not
affect fish stocks significantly. El Nino also negatively affects catch.
Table 3-7: Long-run forms of ARDL models
Variables
Dependence
variable
LnCapacity
LnLabour
SST
LnRainfall
Typhoon
SOI

*p-value < 0.1

Model 1 (catch)
Coefficient Standard error
LnCatch

Model 2 (CPUE)
Coefficient
Standard error

0,1360
0,0754
0,3564 *** 0,0587
-0,2256 *** 0,0686
-0,5955 *** 0,1542
-0,0050
0,0039
0,0663 *** 0,0198
**p-value < 0.05
***p-value < 0.01

CPUE
-0,5700 ***
0,3540 ***
-0,2529 ***
0,1601
-0,0053
0,0848 ***

0,0472

0,0545
0,0566
0,2297
0,0037
0,0151

Source: Research results of the thesis


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In the long term, when sea surface temperature increases by 1 oC,
catch output decreases by 22.56%, CPUE decreases by 0.25 tonnes/CV.
When rainfall increases by 1%, output decreases by 0.60%, and CPUE
does not change significantly. As the number of storms increases, the
changes in catch output and CPUE are not statistically significant.
When the SOI increases by 1 unit (i.e. El Nino decreases), output
increases by 6.63% and CPUE increases by 0.08 tonnes/CV.
3.4

Current status of response solutions to climate change for
catch fisheries of Vietnam

3.4.1 Current status of the Communist Party's view on climate
change response for catch fisheries
In the past 10 years, the Communist Party has been aware and paid
attention to climate change response. Resolution No. 24-NQ/TW
dated June 3, 2013 proposed a proactive approach to responding to
climate change, strengthening natural resource management and
environmental protection on the basis of integrated, interdisciplinary,

inter-regional and global management methods; creating opportunities
to promote transformation of growth model towards sustainable
development; at the same time, adaptation and mitigation must be
conducted, in which climate change adaptation, proactive prevention
of natural disaster are prioritized.
3.4.2 Solutions to respond to climate change in catch fisheries of
Vietnam since 1976
The Government has set a target to reduce catch production by
2020, and limiting catch yields for each sea area. However, policies
for the fisheries sector are still inclined to subsidize for the
development of offshore fishing, thus increasing the catch production.


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Input control, output control and technical control measures have not
been enforced or ineffective.
3.4.3 Limitations, causes and problems to be solved
Analysis of the current situation of climate change response
solutions in catch fisheries of Vietnam show some outstanding
limitations, including: Lack of effective control tools; decentralization
is not strong enough; co-management is still experimental; solutions
to enhance climate resilience are not enough except storm prevention.
In the coming time, Vietnam needs to focus on resolving excessive
catch fishing, as climate change will make this problem more serious
and may lead to depletion of aquatic resources. The Government needs
to overcome the causes, including focusing on ecological objectives
in fishing management, strengthening human and financial resources
to effectively implement the fishing management tools and responding
to climate change; conducting measures to enhance adaptability and

resilience of climate change for catch fisheries.
CHAPTER 4 - FORECASTING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON CATCH FISHERIES UNTIL 2025, 2055 AND
PROPOSING COPING SOLUTIONS FOR VIETNAM
4.1 Forecasting the economic impacts of climate change on catch
fisheries until 2025 and 2055
4.1.1 Prospects of catch fisheries development and climate change
scenarios for Vietnam
4.1.1.1

Forecast of population growth and demand shift

Vietnam’s population in 2014 was 90.7 million people, it is expected
to increase by 11% by 2025 and by 22% by 2049. When the population
increases, the total demand for fish products will increase, the demand


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curve will turn right (up) with an increase of 10% and 22% respectively.
However, due to the development of aquaculture, future fishing
demand is likely to increase more slowly than population growth.
4.1.1.2

Elasticity of fish demand to price

The regression result of the demand function shows that the
elasticity of demand for aquatic products is -0.20, i.e. when the fish
price increases by 1%, the fish demand will decrease by 0.20%. In this
study, for simplicity, we assume that the elasticity of fish demand to

its own price does not change over time.
4.1.1.3

Elasticity of fish supply to price

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) of the International Food Policy
Research Institute shows that the elasticity of supply for aquatic
products is in the range of 0.2 to 0.4. This thesis assumes that the
elasticity of fish supply is 0.2 as the catch yield in Vietnam has exceeded
the maximum sustainable production and the supply curve is inelastic.
4.1.1.4 Forecasts of changes in temperature and rainfall based on
climate change scenarios
In this thesis, the base year is chosen as 2014. The forecast years
are the mid-years of the early period of the century (2016-2035) and
the mid-century period (2046-2065), i.e. 2025 and 2055.
Table 4-3: Forecast of changes in temperature and precipitation
based on climate change scenarios compared to 2014
Mean change (min-max)
Temperature (oC)
Precipitation (%)

RCP4.5
2025
0,4
8,7

RCP8.5
2055
1,1

12,6

2025
0,9
9,0

2055
1,9
13,1

Source: Calculation from MONRE’s data


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4.1.2 Forecasts of impacts of climate change on fishing production
to 2025 and 2055
Research results show that catch production decreases as
temperature and rainfall increase. According to the RCP4.5 scenario,
the output reduction is 14.24% and 32.38% by 2025 respectively.
Table 4-4: Forecasts of impacts of climate change to catch yield
2025

Decrease of catch yield due to

RCP4.5
9,02
5,22
14,24

Increase in temperature (%)
Increase in rainfall (%)
Climate change (%)

2055
RCP8.5
13,54
5,40
18,94

RCP4.5
24,82
7,56
32,38

RCP8.5
38,35
7,86
46,21

Source: Research results of the thesis
4.1.3

Forecasts of impacts of climate change on social surpluses
of catch fisheries in 2025 and 2055

4.1.3.1

Case study: the demand curve remains unchanged

Figure 4-1: Social losses due to the impacts of climate change before
and after discount, in case the demand curve remains unchanged
billion VND

150.000
100.000
50.000
0
2025, RCP 4.5

2025, RCP8.5

Loss of consumer surplus before discount
Loss of consumer surplus after discount

2055, RCP 4.5

2055, RCP 8.5

Loss of producer surplus before discount
Loss of producer surplus after discount

Source: Research results of the thesis
4.1.3.2

Case study: the demand curve turns right

Table 4-6: Impacts of climate change on social surplus if the demand
curve turns right
Change in surpluses (billion VND)

Before discount

Consumers

2025
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
-40.952
-54.022

2055
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
-85.503
-118.994


20

Change in surpluses (billion VND)

After discount

Producers
Society
Consumers
Producers
Society

2025

RCP4.5
37.846
-3.106
-28.189
26.051
-2.138

RCP8.5
38.997
-15.025
-37.186
26.843
-10.343

2055
RCP4.5
99.696
14.192
-28.345
33.049
4.705

RCP8.5
101.498
-17.496
-39.447
33.647
-5.800

Source: Research results of the thesis

4.1.4

Prospects and implications of policies and solutions for the
Government

When the aggregate demand increases, fishers benefit from
higher prices even if climate change reduces yields. The benefit of
fishers depends little on climate change scenarios but heavily on the
increase in aggregate demand. Consumer surplus decreases depending
heavily on climate change scenarios. The greater the impact of climate
change, the longer the time, the more social surplus tends to decrease
and turns from gain to damage. This suggests that the Government
should limit losses by compensating consumers by aquaculture
products, while limiting catch yield towards sustainable fishing.
4.2 SWOT analysis of catch fisheries in climate change
Table 4-8. SWOT analysis
S – Strengths
S1: The Party and the Government pay
attention to responding to climate
change;
S2: The Government has applied a
number of regulations and policies to
help the agro-forestry-fishery sector
respond to climate change;
S3: Residents are initially aware and
have basic understanding of climate
change and its impacts;
S4: Fishers have traditional experience
to respond to natural disasters.

W – Weaknesses
W1: Open access, small scale fishing,
coastal fishing, large number of fishing
boats;
W2: Lack of effective fisheries
management tools, such as no quota for
fishing vessels under 6 m in length, no
regulation on transfer of fishing quota,
fishing licenses without flexibility in
time and space, slow adjustment of
technical controls, inappropriate fishing
subsidy policies, etc.
W3: Lack of fisheries management
human resources;


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W4: Research capacity on fish growth,
distribution and impacts of climate
change on fisheries are weak;
W5: Lack of financial resources for
responding to climate change.
O – Opportunities
O1: Advances in science and
technology, research results related to
climate change in the world have made
significant progress, allowing Vietnam
to acquire and apply to minimize the
impact of climate change on catch

fisheries;
O2: Vietnam receives active support
from the international community in
research and development of climate
change adaptation policies;
O3: Aquaculture sector has developed;
marine farming technology has been
applied in Vietnam;
O4: Industrial revolution 4.0 is
demanding innovation in catch fisheries
sector.

T – Threats
T1: Problems such as environmental
pollution
and
over-exploitation
continue to threaten to deplete coastal
fisheries resources;
T2: Climate change and its impacts are
expected to change fishing grounds,
reduce fishing production in the future,
natural disasters such as storms and
tropical depressions will take place with
increasing intensity;
T3: Increasing competition to exploit
various economic values of marine
resources;
T4: EC promotes the ban on IUU
fishing activities;

T5: Increasing demand for aquatic
products.

Based on the results of SWOT analysis, the thesis proposes SO
strategies (promoting strengths to exploit opportunities), ST
(promoting strengths to overcome threats), WO (exploiting
opportunities to limit weaknesses), WT (identifying and limiting
weaknesses to overcome threats), and integrated strategies (based on
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats all together).
4.3

Proposed orientations and solutions to respond to climate
change in catch fisheries in Vietnam by 2025 and 2055

4.3.1 Catch fishing orientation in Vietnam to 2055 in climate change
In the orientation to 2055, Vietnam needs to implement fisheries
management towards ecological sustainability, which limits catch
output through various management tools. The demand for marine
products should mainly be met from marine farming activities.


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4.3.2

Proposed solutions to cope with climate change in catch
fisheries of Vietnam until 2025

4.3.2.1

State policy solutions

- Input and output control using transferable quota system, also
applied to coastal fishing vessels (such as group fishing rights). Quotas
should be determined based on regular research on stocks of species
in sea areas in climate change. Buy back regime should be applied to
help the Government flexibly adjust quotas if climate change causes
aquatic resources to fluctuate faster than expected. Study of impact of
climate change for regular updating technical control. Application of
information technology to strengthen control measures.
- Stop subsidies, tax exemption and reduction in fishing; using
financial funds to build anchorage areas to avoid storms, strengthen
communication facilities and online control system, strengthen the
capacity to prevent IUU fishing activities, support the development of
marine farming, improve the quality of seafood processing and
support livelihood conversion.
- Integrated fisheries management, simultaneous application of
many measures and tools, including integrated response to climate
change into socio-economic development plans of communities,
localities and nations.
- International cooperation in research, financial support and
catch fisheries.
- Reduction of oil subsidies to increase fuel efficiency to reduce
CO2 emissions.
4.3.2.2

Solutions for organizing fishing activities in the community

- Application of community-based management and comanagement to limit catch production and increase economic

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efficiency in the context of climate change. Improving knowledge of
climate change and raising awareness on impacts of climate change in
fisheries so that they can actively and positively respond to climate
change in the process of co-management of catch fisheries.
- Assigning water surface use rights for long-term fishing so that
people can implement appropriate fishing strategy to ensure long-term
economic efficiency; Setting up a market system for transfer of water use
rights so that market can help optimize the allocation of fishing rights.
- Development of alternative livelihoods for poor fishers,
especially fishing related livelihoods such as marine aquaculture,
aquatic product processing to improve aquatic production and quality,
to compensate for decrease in aquatic production due to climate
change impacts and limited coastal fishing.
- Increase the efficiency of fuel use, planting mangroves and grow
seagrass to increase CO2 absorption.
CONCLUSION
1. On the theoretical basis and methods to evaluate the
economic impact of climate change on catch fisheries and solutions
(1) Fish stocks in the world have been significantly reduced due
to many different types of impacts, climate change exacerbates and
has faster impacts directly and indirectly.
(2) The impacts of climate change on aquatic species are different
in various regions of the world. Fish stocks tend to decrease in tropical
and subtropical waters.
(3) There are several to evaluate the economic impact of climate
change on catch fisheries. The thesis applies qualitative and
quantitative methods, using production function model and partial