IT training the africa report april TruePDF may june 2019

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The

N° 107 • APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

In this issue:

PROFILE
Ramaphosa’s agenda
DEBATE
Is Magufuli’s economic
nationalism working?
INVESTIGATION
Nigeria’s OPL 245 net widens
DOSSIERS
Bayelsa, East Africa, Logistics

most
influential
Africans

A constellation of the celebrated: barrier-busting
business folk and power players on the
continent. From the stars of the moment to
those imagining Africa’s tomorrow
JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

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EDITORIAL

SIGNS OF
AN AFRICAN
SPRING
By PATRICK SMITH

The mobilisation of hundreds of thousands
of young people on streets across the continent demanding economic and political
rights challenges traditional oppositionists as much as incumbent regimes. In
each case, the demonstrators in Algiers,
Bamenda, Harare, Kampala, Khartoum

and Kinshasa are taking on systems of
vested interests and dysfunctional politics
that are holding them back. They are
calling for sweeping change, not just
different party colours in the presidency.
Even in South Africa and Nigeria or
countries where politics seems quiescent
or dominated by competition between
ideologically identical parties, these new
movements send important messages.
First is that the economic downturn has
exposed the jobless growth of Africa’s
boom years. The demographic reality of
the world’s youngest continent means this
issue will dominate African politics for the
next three decades. Although most policymakers talk of structural reform, very few
have a strategy and can implement it.
Second, when regimes try to reform after
years of stasis, they are at their weakest
point. They have neither the legitimacy nor
the resources to change the policy course.
The protesters’ grievances run the gamut

of economic and social demands. The main
targets are the spiral in youth unemployment,
stagnant economies held prisoner by international commodity markets, together with
deteriorating provision of education and
training – a key ingredient to revive dynamism.
Activists are finding new ways to organise
and avoid the attentions of the police. They

have brought together students, professionals,
and trade unionists of all ages – even feuding
family members – into a sprawling movement.
Innovation is key to the organisational power of the new groups. Activists in
Algeria are using WhatsApp groups of football fans to mobilise support. It worked.
On the evening of 3 March, hundreds of
thousands marched through the streets to
call on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to
refrain from standing for a fifth mandate in
April’s elections. In Sudan and Zimbabwe,
the governments have tried to shut down services like WhatsApp, so activists use virtual
private networks to share information and
send messages to the outside world.
All this has prompted easy comparisons
with the rebellions that swept across North
Africa in 2011. The protest movements in
Egypt, Libya and Tunisia started that way,
so the argument goes, but ended in a new
autocracy, bloody chaos or frustration and
disappointment.
There are parallels between today and
2011 but more importantly there are lessons. Above all, demonstrate in peace,
is the message circulating relentlessly
among activists in Algeria and Sudan.
Many hope the form of the demonstrations
themselves, heterogenous with a strong,
sometimes majority, participation by women, can shape the political transitions. This
may prove the hardest task: for a popular
movement to take on the responsibilities
and limitations of political power without

betraying its supporters.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

3


theafricareport
#107 / April-May-June 2019

THE AFRICA REPORT
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CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER
BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED

Ramaphosa
is working on
his image as
‘an enigma’

MOELETSI MABE/SUNDAY TIMES/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

PUBLISHER
DANIELLE BEN YAHMED

EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER
YVES BIYAH
EDITOR IN CHIEF
PATRICK SMITH
MANAGING EDITOR
NICHOLAS NORBROOK

ASSOCIATE EDITOR
MARSHALL VAN VALEN
PRODUCTION EDITOR
OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI
To find the full editorial team,
all our correspondents, and much
more on our new digital platform,
please visit:
www.theafricareport.com
SALES
A JUSTE TITRE

03 EDITORIAL
06 MAILBAG
08 COFFEE WITH THE AFRICA
REPORT / Bob Collymore
10 THE QUESTION
12 Q2 / April
14 Q2 / May
18 Q2 / June

63 EAST AFRICA FOCUS
Policymakers are not yet looking at

the many concerns of business and
ordinary citizens in order to avoid
the pitfalls that have hobbled other
integration projects

FEATURES
22 PROFILE / Ramaphosa’s destiny
Ahead of 8 May’s general elections The Africa Report talks to close contacts
of the president over the years to build a picture of the man who says he can
get South Africa out of its current mess

86 100 MOST
INFLUENTIAL
AFRICANS
The Africa Report’s
inaugural ranking of
the top Africans who
control the levers of
power across politics,
business and the arts:
from billionaire barons
to unpredictable
peacemakers and
soft-power superstars

122 INSIDE
BAYELSA
New projects are taking
root in the Nigerian
state after years of

despoliation

36 INVESTIGATION / Nigeria’s billion-dollar oil scandal
An investigation in Nigeria has turned into the country’s biggest corporate
bribery case, with nine executives from Eni and Shell now on trial in Milan

146 LOGISTICS
DOSSIER

48 WIDE ANGLE / The youth wave

Ethiopia has high
hopes for exports, and
has made improving
logistics a priority

Sudan street protests, Bobi Wine, #FeesMustFall and #NotTooYoungToRun –
a demographic tide is pushing back against outdated politicians, so how long
before the bulwark crumbles?

56 DEBATE / Is Magufuli’s economic nationalism working?
The threat of a $190bn tax bill became a $300m payment. The Africa
Report looks into whether the Tanzanian government’s barnstorming style
will revolutionise the economy or scare away investors

4

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

156 ART & LIFE

African designers are
in the limelight when
Black Hollywood stars
choose their labels for
red carpet ceremonies

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For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to:
The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis rue d’Auteuil Paris 75016 - France or

MAILBAG

Introducing a more
technical curriculum
doesn’t do enough to
address the root cause
of the failing education
system, as technology

alone won’t fix our public
schools [‘Yemi Osinbajo:
Selling our crown
jewels isn’t the solution’,
TAR106 Dec./Jan. 2019].
What ails our educational system ranges
from poverty in early
childhood to underfunded
districts and poorly
designed incentives for
an overburdened faculty,
all of which feeds the
unequal access to quality
education for the teeming
population of schoolage children. Recruiting
more qualified teachers
into service requires
more funding than the
sector currently gets. The
proposed reform of the
school curriculum will
level the playing field of
access, but level fields do
not necessarily translate
to improved player skills,
which is the entire point
of education.
Maryam Bello,
Ibadan, Nigeria

62 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

NIGERIA’S OBY RAISES
CRUCIAL QUESTIONS

Obiageli
‘Oby’
Ezekwesili
Presidential candidate,
Allied Congress Party of Nigeria

The old order
has delivered
misery

STEPHEN LOVEKIN/SHUTTER/SIPA

THE POINT OF
EDUCATION

The Nigerian presidential
candidate talks to The Africa
Report about the education crisis
and the need for the politics
of ideas rather than personality

B

lunt-speaking and
a passionate advocate for women’s

r ights, Obiageli
‘Oby’ Ezekwesili has
launched a groundbreaking run
for the presidency, which looks
like a logical stepin her professional and political career. Standing for
the small Allied Congress Party of
Nigeria (ACPN), she is shaking up
the election by running a grassroots campaign with a dedicated
band of young volunteer helpers.
Oby, as she is widely known
in Nigeria, should not be underestimated as a campaigner.
What she lacks in establishment
backers and corporate donors,
she could make up for in her
own enthusiasm and that of her
young supporters. She shot to
global fame as one of the founders of the #BringBackOurGirls
campaign in 2014 demanding

that the government of Goodluck
Jonathan find and rescuethe more
than 270 schoolgirls kidnapped
from Chibok in Borno State by
the Islamist Boko Haram militia.
Oby and Hadiza Bala Usman,
co-founder of the campaign, used
social media to get the message
around the world, and even US
First Lady Michelle Obama was

“I would do a much better
job than [Atiku] because
government is not monolithic”
pictured on social media brandishing a #BringBackOurGirls
placard. That campaign was a
major reason why Jonathan lost
the 2015 election.
An accountant by training, with
amaster’sinpublicadministration
from Harvard University, Oby has
worked on development projects
THE AFRICA REPORT

for much of her career. She
joined then-president Olusegun
Obasanjo’s government in 1999
as head of its Budget Monitoring
Unit, where she earned the sobriquet ‘Madame Due Process.’ She
later served as minister of mines
and then of education before leaving government to join the World
Bank as vice-president for Africa.
Oby is a fiercely independent
campaigner. At the launching of the now governing All
Progressives Congress (APC) in
2013, she warned its members that
they should stand for more than
chasing the People’s Democratic
Party (PDP) out of power. But she
is also critical of Atiku Abubakar,
the PDP’s presidential candidate,

with whom she clashed in government. She tells The Africa Report
that Atiku did “everything to undermine due process” when he
was in government.
N ° 10 6

D E C E M B E R 2 018 - J A N U A R Y 2 019

DOUBTFUL
DOUBLING FOR
MAURITIUS
Mauritius is keen to
double the size of its
financial sector in 12
years, but how will it find
the growth strategies
to achieve its dream in
today’s global economic
turmoil? [‘Mauritius:
Offshore on the radar’,
TAR105 Nov. 2018].
Various forecasts against
a backdrop of new US
government measures
to impose tariffs on steel
and aluminium have
resulted in Turkey’s
currency significantly

Oby not only has the educational qualification,
she also has enough professional experience to

be president [‘Obiageli ‘Oby’ Ezekwesili: The old
order has delivered misery’, TAR106 Dec./Jan.
2019]. It is sad that Oby was not seen as a
major contender. Instead, Nigerians were
focused on two men who have been in power
before and have shown that they have nothing
to offer. Is it because Nigerians cannot yet wrap
their heads around a female president?
Lucia Edafioka, Feminist and brand
communications manager, Nigeria

losing its value. Four
countries – Egypt, Jordan,
Argentina and Barbados –
have suffered from high
debt and deficits. Will
Mauritius be successful
in its expansion of its
financial sector with new
international investments
when the general global
economic outlook seems
negative?
Kokil Shah, Kenya

HELL BREAKS LOOSE
IN ZIMBABWE
It surely never rains in
Zimbabwe. President
Emmerson Mnangagwa’s

attempts to turn the
economy around are yet
to bear fruit [‘Zimbabwe
2019 Country Report’,
TAR106 Dec./Jan. 2019].
Fuel shortages have
loomed, doctors are
going on strike, teachers
are going to work twice
a week and there has been
a sharp increase in the
prices of basic goods and
services. New uncorrupt
blood is needed, human
rights laws need to
be respected and in a
nutshell, a new government is needed.
Jeff K. Chakanyuka,
Zimbabwe

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THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019


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COFFEE WITH

THE AFRICA REPORT

BOB
COLLYMORE

PLATFORM BUILDER
The Africa Report sits down with the retiring boss of
Safaricom, Kenya’s dominant telecoms player and creator
of the widely popular M-Pesa mobile-money platform

By NICHOLAS NORBROOK in Nairobi
“I highly recommend this lifestyle,”
says Bob Collymore, sitting on the
veranda of his imposing house in
the affluent Nairobi suburbs. “This
morning I woke up and had the 8:15am
call. Then I caught up with some
emails, then I have you and another
media engagement after […] I don’t
actually need to go to the office.”
With the gentle chirrup of birdsong
and the jazz radio playing in the large
sitting room behind, it is hard to disagree, though the less well-organised
might see their productivity suffer.
“And it occurred to me,” continues
Collymore, “that we all get into this
funnel, to commute and get into the
office by 8-9am. Whereas, I could
easily do the interviews here, go into
the office by midday and miss the

traffic.”
Nairobi is blessed with an abundance of cars, which can render the
smallest commute unbearable. So it
is no surprise to hear an executive
plan around it. But Collymore is not
being boastful about his terrific life;
he has a different problem to steer

8

around. Treatment for acute myeloid
leukaemia has stripped his immune
system of its former strength. “I’m
starting over from scratch,” he says.
Until it returns, he is forced to limit
his interaction with people.
Collymore is a ‘silver linings’ guy
rather than a ‘dweller’. One of those
silver linings is the ability to put more
time into his music.
“I do have a saxophone addiction,
yes. It’s gotten worse in recent times.
The saxophone shop was right across
the way from the hospital in London,
so I bought myself a new Conn-Selmer
saxophone. And I’m very diligent. I
manage to get in seven or eight hours
a week.”

Collymore is not

boasting about his
terrific life; he has a
different problem

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

That does not mean he is any less in
touch with the office. The launch of
Safaricom’s mobile overdraft facility,
for example, has been at the forefront
of his days. And he has had to fend
off a recent polemic in Kenyan public
life surrounding Safaricom’s dominant
position.
It is one of the reasons he is so
sanguine about a merger between
two rivals, Airtel Kenya and Telkom
Kenya. “Telcom operators need to
get a certain critical mass to work,”
he says. “So this will create a player
with 33% market share. That makes
sense. For the market it makes sense,
too, to have a stronger player as competition to Safaricom.”
But that is not where he believes the
real competition will come from. For
all the kudos Safaricom won worldwide for its mobile payments platform
M-Pesa, “you can pay for things with
your Fitbit now,” says Collymore.
And in the future, the real challengers to telephone companies like
Safaricom will come from ‘big tech’:

Amazon, Google, Facebook, as well
as Chinese challengers like Tencent.
WhatsApp has launched a payments
trial in India involving tens of millions
of participants. If WhatsApp gets
into payments and comes to Kenya,
what will Safaricom do? “We don’t
get complacent about these things,”
says Collymore. “For sure, we believe
we need to evolve, and quickly. The
thing that we have today was designed
11 years ago.”
That evolution is being helped
along by a strategic partnership with
Vodacom, the South Africa-based
telecoms company, in particular with
its data capabilities. And Safaricom is
looking for new revenue drivers. “The
shareholders are certainly looking
for this,” says Collymore. “And we
think that you can bolt a few things
together – e-commerce, payments and
data analytics. Most people are using
data to gauge whether you are a credit
risk or not. But look at the Chinese,
they are not looking at whether you


have money or not – they are looking
at whether you are a good guy or not.

They look at intent. If I know that
your intent is good, then I can rent
you my apartment.”
That gives companies that sit on
piles of information an advantage. “We
have access to a pool of data, and not
just our own but publicly available data,
which can help us to start to profile
people much better and to monetise

that by how we develop our own products for you and individualise it,” says
Collymore. “But then also, how do we
move into other markets which are not
our legacy markets, voice and SMS.
And not many operators can say that
because they are just voice and SMS.”
E-commerce is certainly an obvious
choice – with a trusted brand, a payments platform and new logistics
partner Sendy, Safaricom is stealing
a march on other retailers seeking
online customers.
But the strategy, like big tech’s, is
to be the platform, says Collymore,
“whether it was for the banking industry, the healthcare industry, the
agricultural industry. And we have our
sights on the education sector. Look,
at Amazon, it doesn’t just sell books.
Google is putting balloons up in the
air, it is not just a search engine.”
Take, for example, DigiFarm,

Safaricom’s new agricultural initiative. The company will be able to
give loans to a smallholder, source
cheap inputs from iProcure – an
agricultural start-up Safaricom
invested in – deliver the latest
agronomic expertise by
phone, and then

Investing $100 at the
start of Collymore’s
reign would deliver
tenfold returns today

connect the smallholder to specific off-takers. All of this is in the
Safaricom ecosystem.
Like all good musicians and chief
executives, Collymore understands
the importance of timing, for a company and for a career. He looks at the
way his predecessor Michael Joseph
hewed Safaricom out of the stubborn
potential of the market. His own tenure
– which comes to an end in August
2019 – has been about consolidation
and profitable pivots to M-Pesa and
data: investing $100 in the company
when he began would have seen that
money grow nearly tenfold.

R
R TA

U FO
C PA

-MAR
JEAN

And he is clear that the company
needs a successor with yet another
set of skills, as the chapter of the
‘ubiquitous platform’ begins. “I have
never been a good mergers and acquisitions person, but we will need
someone who can spot a deal and
grab it,” concludes Collymore. “[We
need] someone who understands
the financial sector a lot more, if
we are to occupy the fintech space,
and someone who is not going to be
scared of going into other markets.”
Collymore says he is leaving with
few regrets: a small number of missed
opportunities and a regretted comment or two about the quality of
Kenyan food, or about whether
Kenyans trusted Safaricom more
than the church. His greatest triumph? The team he has assembled. “Finish your tea,” he says.
“Let me just go get an injection
pumped into me, and I will
be back.”

N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

9


SELORM BRANTTIE

MICHAEL K. SERCHIE

Global Strategy Director,
mPedigree Network

Project Manager, Ghana Institute of Linguistics,
Literacy and Bible Translation

The National Cathedral serves an aesthetic and
Ghana’s National Cathedral offers more than a
house of prayer. It is a critical avenue for social
superfluous purpose. It does not directly reflect
the nation’s founding goals. It is a piece of architecture
transformation in enhancing the prophetic, advocacy and
educational role of the church as a corporate body. For
that is just going to change the skyline. In a country which
a country with an estimated 70% Christian population,
has a majority Christian religious orientation, there are
the National Cathedral would serve as a sacred space for
already mega-auditoria that seat, in some cases, three
governance of the nation, host
times the proposed capacity of
the cathedral. These auditoria
state and religious functions,

serve as a convening centre for
have hosted and still have capacinterfaith dialogue to improve
ity to host events of a national
nature. To date, there has been
the cohesive relationship beno explanation for the cost of retween government and religious
placement of structures that will
leaders and create a visible and
be demolished for this edifice,
organic unity of the different
which will cost tens of millions
Christian denominations in the
of dollars at least. While the
country. Our commitment to somega-pastors are running around
cial justice in encouraging social
with statesmen to raise funds, no
integration requires initiatives to
building the needed various inGhanaian even knows the cost of
the whole project, and the govfrastructures at all levels – local,
ernment itself is not disclosing
regional and national – so that
Ghana’s government-backed
its interests. For a monument
our nation can develop faster
multimillion-dollar project has
to a religion that has truth and
than it is currently. Building the
received backlash for being
transparency as its core virtues,
cathedral and tackling the other
a misplaced priority in the face

this cathedral’s very foundations
socio-economic challenges in
show a contradictory attitude.
the country are not mutually
of harsh economic conditions
exclusive. Monuments like the
Ghana has done very little to
protect its heritage, and yet revels
National Cathedral, in addition
in the imposition of a foreign religion, whose main propoto its tourism potential and socio-economic revitalisation
nents shackled our forefathers and condemned our ways
of the city, will create jobs, revitalise the landscape of
as barbaric. So while the national museum steadily breaks
Accra, serve as a catalyst for technology and skills transfer
down in ruins just five kilometres away, a monument that
into our country, and will play an important cultural role
celebrates our mental slavery rises in its wake.
in cultivating pride for our heritage and past.

YES

NO

Are national
cathedrals
a waste of
resources?

No!! These resources in question are
meant for the wellbeing of the citizens and

the development of the nation. Religious
beliefs are entrenched in Ghanaian
society and form part of the national
identity. Yes, a national cathedral may
not be in the interests of the entire population, but it captures most of the citizen’s
religious affiliation, which is Christianity.

It appears the project does not have universal
appeal in Ghana, even among the Christian
community. It is more a matter of political mobilisation for short-end electoral purposes rather
than Christian ends. State support is not universally agreed, since many court cases are ongoing
regarding the presidential donation of prime
government land. Besides, all so-called national
cathedrals are denomination-based or -owned.

Randolf B. Hackman, Email

Colin Essamuah, WhatsApp

10

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

It is a vanity
project. It’s
management will
be chaotic and
at the taxpayers’
expense. It
is the height

of misplaced
priorities.
Kobi Annan, Twitter

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

To respond to this month’s Question, visit www.theafricareport.com. You can also
find The Africa Report on Facebook and on Twitter @theafricareport. Comments,
suggestions and queries can also be sent to: The Editor, The Africa Report,
57bis Rue d’Auteuil, Paris 75016, France or

THE QUESTION


ALET PRETORIUS/FOTO24/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

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key events from the worlds of politics, business and culture. Find
out more about how to plan your April, May & June, whether it is
to find out who is planning for life after Bouteflika (see page 13),
what happens next in the fallout from Steinhoff International’s
accounting irregularities (see page 14) or understanding the
battleground fights in South Africa’s election (see page 16).
THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

11

Q2

/ APRIL

‘We want to know how much debt
Kenya is paying in pending bills
and we want this done this year’

INVESTMENT Oil

interest

Despite low prices, several African countries are seeking
investment in oil exploration in the months ahead
1 GABON The 12th
licensing round is
set to close in April 2019.
2 GHANA Its first formal
licensing round should
be complete in May. It has
reportedly got the attention of
16 oil companies, including majors.

2
1 3
4

3 REPUBLIC OF CONGO Licence round
phase II is due to close in June 2019.
4 ANGOLA The Marginal Fields Bid Round will be launched

at the Africa Oil & Power conference in Luanda in June 2019.

World Bank leadership contest
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED/ZUMA/REA; CAMILLE MILLERAND; ATUL LOKE/THE NEW YORK TIMES-REDUX-REA

PAUL ABUOR
Kenyan MP calls the government to account over opaque debts
as the government seeks to roll over big loans in April

POWER PLAYERS
After president Jim Yong Kim’s surprise resignation, the race
is on to name a replacement. Nominations ended in midMarch and a vote is due before the Spring World Bank/IMF
meetings in Washington. Early talk was about breaking the
US stranglehold on the presidency.

DAVID MALPASS
The US Treasury
official – a critic
of multilateralism
and former Bear
Stearns boffin –
is US President
Donald Trump’s
pick.

NGOZI
OKONJO-IWEALA

RAGHURAM
RAJAN

The former finance
minister of Nigeria
has said that she
would run for
the World Bank
presidency
if nominated.

The former
Reserve Bank
of India governor
could be a strong
candidate for
the Asian grouping
of countries.

ARTWORK

Up for sale

SOTHEBY’S

Pieces from renowned artists
such as El Anatsui and
Chéri Samba are going under
the hammer at Sotheby’s
London on 2 April. Contemporary
African art continues to do
well on international markets.

Congolese artist Samba’s piece
(pictured) sold for £31,250
($42,000) in an October 2018
auction at Sotheby’s, which
netted £2,274,625 in total.

12

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019


$100m

Tech-focused Andela raised a large sum
in January, and Africa-focused investors will
be discussing that deal and others at the African
Venture Capital Association in Nairobi 1-5 April

SAMIR SID

Thousands of protestors have
marched in Algiers and other
cities across the country

‘A combination
of economic discipline
and vibrancy will
ensure that we will not
have to be rescued’
KEN OFORI-ATTA

ALGERIA ELECTIONS

Ghana’s finance minister decribes what
is needed when the country’s programme
with the IMF ends in April

The street speaks

MO IBRAHIM FOUNDATION
The Mo Ibrahim Governance Weekend
at the Sofitel hotel in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire on
5-7 April will play host to a new edition of The
Africa Report Debates, with the question: “The
new tech era: job killer or job creator?”

APPOINTMENT

SYDNEY MBHELE

SANLAM

The powerful clique behind President Abdelaziz Bouteflika may
have waited too long to resolve their disputes about who should
take over from the ailing 82-year-old president. They backed
Bouteflika to run again in the planned 18 April elections, leading
to hundreds of thousands of protesters – young and old – taking
to the streets in late February and early March to send a message
scrawled on handwritten posters and chanted by throngs of
protesters that ‘enough is enough’. The economy, which is largely

dependent on oil and gas projects, is hurting.
Nearly everything had seemed on course for a non-event election
where Bouteflika would win a fifth five-year term: the opposition is
weak and divided, the regime holds a tight grip on the military and
security services and Algeria’s young people were seen as disaffected and perennially frustrated by the country’s gerontocracy.
Those around Bouteflika are now scrambling for a strategy.
As The Africa Report went to press, the street had gotten
wheelchair-bound Bouteflika to agree to a national conference on
reforms and promise to step down before the end of the next term.
In the days and weeks ahead, the protesters are seeking to press
their advantage now that they have gotten the regime to make concessions. But questions remain as to how this generational change
in the wind will eventually take shape. The Arab Spring examples
of neighbouring countries show the pitfalls and possibilities.
Will the opposition be able to rally around a candidate in time for
the vote, if it will be free and fair? If Bouteflika steps down before
the vote or his party fractures beyond repair, will oppositionists be
able to exert enough pressure to push through generational change
in the armed forces, many of whose leaders earned their pedigrees
in the country’s war of liberation from France and the crushing of
the Front Islamique du Salut group in the 1990s?

The new chief executive of brand
at Sanlam takes up his post on 1 April.
Sanlam’s focus has been on its 2018
acquisition of Moroccan firm SAHAM.
Mbehele brings experience from rival
insurance firm Liberty to the table.

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

13


/ MAY

DWAYNE SENIOR/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

Q2

STEINHOFF INTERNATIONAL

Awaiting the auditors

ALIKO DANGOTE
His $9bn Nigeria oil refinery is due to
begin test production in May 2019. The
investment is set to more than double
Dangote’s annual revenue and allow
large investments outside of Nigeria.

JACOB ZUMA
South Africa’s former president will
be back in court in May on corruption
charges relating to a multibillion-dollar
arms deal in the 1990s. He faces charges
of fraud, racketeering and money laundering.

14

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

ERIC LARRAYADIEU/AFRICA CEO FORUM/JA; CIA PAK/UN

The reckoning for Steinhoff International, an Africa- and Europe-focused retailer backed by South African billionaire Christo Wiese, depends in part on the audited results for its group and subsidiaries in 2017 and 2018, due to
be released in April and May 2019. Under the leadership of chief executive Markus Jooste, Steinhoff’s share price
crumbled when accounting irregularities were discovered in December 2017. Auditing firm PwC is carrying out the
investigation into Steinhoff’s recent operations, which will reveal the extent of the company’s problems.
Since the 2017 crisis and writing down an estimated $12bn in assets, the company has been limping along as it
conducts the restructuring of some subsidiary operations and preparing for court cases seeking billions of dollars
in damages due to investor losses. The Amsterdam Court of Appeal – Steinhoff International is headquartered in
the Netherlands – will hold a crucial hearing on 23 May to determine if it will go ahead with an investigation into
the company. Steinhoff’s difficulties are also playing out in South African politics, where the opposition Democratic
Alliance has been calling for the speedy launch of criminal investigations once the audited results become public.
Authorities in the Netherlands, Germany and South Africa could take years to complete their probes.
Restructuring specialist Louis du Preez has been leading Steinhoff since November 2018 with the goal of
saving the company from collapse. Plans for new stores – Steinhoff owns Mattress Firm in the US, Conforama
in France and the Pep and Ackermans brands in Africa – have largely been put on hold until the company is
on sounder footing. Steinhoff’s unaudited results for the last quarter of 2018 showed 3% total revenue growth
from existing stores, with a 5% jump in Africa and a 4% drop in the US.

‘Whether we have accomplished
fully what we had set up to
accomplish? The answer is no.
Corruption is worse […] It’s politics
of patronage and appeasement.’
SAULOS CHILIMA
Malawi’s former vice-president is running against his
one-time ally, President Peter Mutharika, in May. Corruption
and the economy are high on the political agenda.

Q2

/ MAY

$1bn

Ivory Coast plans to sell at least $1bn in
eurobonds by May 2019 in order to finance the
construction of new infrastructure projects.

‘It means having the law
affirming our existence
and validating that we
– like all Kenyans –
are protected under
the law.’

SOUTH AFRICA

Poll pressure
In May’s general election, President Cyril Ramaphosa desperately wants
a strong turnout in favour of the governing African National Congress (ANC)
so that he can sweep out corrupt officials linked to former president Jacob
Zuma and clean up ailing state-run enterprises like Eskom and South
African Airways (see page 154).
Support for the ANC has been waning in recent years. It took 61.95%
of the vote in 2016’s municipal elections, and an Ipsos opinion poll estimated
its support in November 2018 at 61%. Another Ipsos poll released in

February 2019 found that 59% of adult South Africans do not believe the
government is handling the economy well, and only 29% believe the country
is moving ‘in the right direction’.
But the two main opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA)
and the Economic Freedom Fighters, do not seem to be making headway
on the pocketbook issues that voters have been worried about the most.
Here are three key provinces to watch:

MERCY NJUEH
The Kenyan LGBTQ+ activist hopes the High
Court will strike down a colonial-era law
on 24 May that she says conflicts with the
protections of the 2010 constitution.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED; LOBNA TAREK/AP/SIPA

WORLD PRESS FREEDOM DAY

MOHAMED AL-GHEITI
& MAHMOUD ABU ZEID
World Press Freedom day will be
celebrated in Addis Ababa in May. Last
year, Egypt ranked among the top three
countries for imprisoned journalists. AlGheiti got 12 months in January 2019 for
interviewing a homosexual and Abu Zeid
got a five-year term in 2018 for taking
photos at the Rabaa massacre in 2013.

Phase II

The second phase of Kenya’s standard gauge
railway, being built by China Communications
Construction Company to link Nairobi to
Naivasha, is due to be finished in May or June.

16

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

WESTERN CAPE

GAUTENG

KWAZULU-NATAL

Poll watchers are
not yet sure how much
support former Cape
Town mayor Patricia
de Lille – who founded
the Good political party
last year – will pull
away from the DA after
her falling out with
the party leadership.
Western Cape
is the DA’s strongest
support base.

Voters in and around

Johannesburg are
critical of the ANC’s
record on the economy
and service delivery.
The ANC lost control
of the Joburg mayor’s
office in 2016, so
the vote in Gauteng
will show if the
opposition can make
stronger inroads.

Zuma has been
lobbying hard behind
the scenes for his
home province to split
the vote, voting
for his ANC allies
in the provincial vote
and against the ANC
on the national level.
The province is
the biggest vote pool
for the ANC.


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Q2

/ JUNE
AFDB

Let’s meet in Malabo
The African Development Bank (AfDB) president Akinwumi
Adesina has about another year left before he could be up for
re-election as head of the continental financial institution. He came
into office in 2015 promising to transform the AfDB, but at the last
general meeting, the bank’s governors said they wanted to see more
evidence of reforms and the efficient use of resources before they
would agree to Adesina’s request for a general capital increase to
allow the financing of more projects.
The AfDB is preparing for its annual general meeting in the
Equatorial Guinean city of Malabo on 11-14 June as the continent’s

growth engine continues to recover from a low in 2016. The AfDB
predicts that growth will reach 4% in 2019, up from 3.5% in 2018.
Those numbers hide regional variations, with the oil producers and
mineral exporters of West and Central Africa performing relatively
poorly when compared to the economies of Senegal and Ethiopia.
Economic giants Nigeria and South Africa have been struggling
to cope with lower commodity prices and other economic strains,
and the new administrations in both countries will be looking
for ways out of their current troubles. So Malabo makes a fitting
backdrop for discussions about how natural resource-dependent
economies can diversify and attract more investment – something
the government of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema has been
talking about for quite some time.
With an annual infrastructure financing gap estimated at between
$68bn-$108bn, attendees at the Malabo conference will be debating
how African governments can raise more internal revenue, how
to implement the planned continental free trade area and how to
improve the mobility of the continent’s population in pursuit of
better economic outcomes.

Japan will host its first G20 summit, which
assembles the biggest economies in the world.
South African diplomats will be present
to represent the continent, and topics to
be discussed include agriculture, health, green
energy, trade and the digital economy.

‘What we want is a
mindset change from
everybody.’

ISMAIL MOMONIAT
The National Treasury deputy director-general
said in December that the planned introduction
of a carbon tax in South Africa would
force companies to think differently about their
environmental impacts.

12.88
MTPA

‘We will (…) eliminate
need for importing
electricity from Uganda’
JOSEPH NJOROGE
Kenya’s energy principal secretary announces
a transmission line for June 2019.

18

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

EMRE DORTER/TABANLIOGLU ARCHITECTS

US firm Anadarko is due to make an investment
decision by June 2019 on two natural gas
plants in Mozambique’s Offshore Area 1 with
a capacity to produce 12.88 MTPA. The plants
make up the key piece of infrastructure
to the country’s planned gas boom.

Q2

/ JUNE
SOUTH AFRICA

National
Arts Fest
ALET PRETORIUS/FOTO24/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

Art in nearly all
of its forms will
be centre stage
in what is billed as
Africa’s largest arts
festival 27 June
to 7 July. Amongst
the singers, actors
and painters,
politically engaged
South African
photographer and
multimedia artist
Berni Searle will
be in the spotlight.

AFRICAN CUP OF NATIONS Cairo

$2.5bn

cup

After high drama about which countries will host the next two tournaments,
African football fans are preparing to visit the land of the pharaohs for
matches between 21 June and 19 July. As The Africa Report went to press,
the qualifying matches had not yet been completed. But there were already
some early favourites. Egypt, which came in second in the 2017 tournament,
is expected to put in a strong showing. Fans of the home team, which
automatically qualifies for the final tournament, will be cheering on Mohamed
Salah, who scored a goal in each qualifying match.

Stanbic Bank Uganda, lead arranger for the
East African Crude Oil Pipeline’s $2.5bn
funding, expects the deal to close in June 2019.

‘Energy subsidy (cuts are
also) a positive measure’

CAMEROON

NIGERIA

SENEGAL

Last year’s winners are
expected to put in
a good showing in Egypt.
The team will need
a good performance

out of winger Christian
Bassogog, who was
the 2017 tournament’s
best player.

Shanghai Shenhua’s
Odion Ighalo was in fine
form in the qualifiers,
scoring six goals in four
matches. But the side
was in a pool of relative
lightweights, so the
Super Eagles will have
to prove their mettle
in the next rounds.

Star Sadio Mané, rated
one of the continent’s
top footballers, is a
key player for the team,
which was on course
to qualify for the
final tournament with
the highest number
of points.

20

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

UG CO. K/SHUTTERSTOCK/SIPA; PRESSFOCUS/SIPA; ANDREW MEDICHINI/AP/SIPA

HASSAN AMIN
Acwa Power’s director for Egypt says his firm
will sign off on three solar projects by June.

Indian telecoms company Airtel Africa
plans to raise additional funds of about
$1.5bn by June in order to invest more
and to help pay its debts. It raised $200m
in early 2019 from the Qatar Investment
Authority and $1.25bn in late 2018 from
Warburg Pincus, Temasek, Singapore
Telecommunications and SoftBank. Plans
are underway for an initial public offering.


DANIEL HAYDUK/AFP

Features

22 PROFILE
Ramaphosa’s destiny
Does the formula that is Cyril
Ramaphosa add up for South
Africa? Contacts of the president
help to build a picture of the man
who says he can get the country
out of its current mess

36 INVESTIGATION
How Dan Etete’s billiondollar deal ended up in
court
An investigation in Nigeria has
turned into the country’s biggest
corporate bribery case, with nine
executives from Eni and Royal
Dutch Shell now on trial in Milan

48 WIDE ANGLE
The youth wave
Sudan street protests, Bobi Wine,
#FeesMustFall: A demographic
tide is pushing back against
outdated politicians, so how long
before the bulwark crumbles?

56 DEBATE Is Magufuli’s
economic nationalism
working?
The threat of a $190bn tax bill
became a $300m payment. The
Africa Report looks into whether
the Tanzanian government’s
barnstorming style will scare
away investors

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

21

FEATURES /

Ramaphosa is working on
his image as ‘an enigma’

22

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019


PROFILE

Ramaphosa’s
destiny
Does the formula that is Cyril
Ramaphosa add up for South
Africa? Ahead of 8 May’s general
elections The Africa Report talks
to close contacts of the president
over the years to build a picture
of the man who says he can get
the country out of its current mess

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

MOELETSI MABE/SUNDAY TIMES/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

By CRYSTAL ORDERSON in Cape Town and Johannesburg

23


FEATURES / PROFILE / Ramaphosa’s destiny

F

For 90 minutes on 7 February, Cyril Ramaphosa
held parliament in his hand as he set out the
ambitions for his presidency. In a sombre grey
suit and tie, fitting his soubriquet as ‘South
Africa’s CEO’, Ramaphosa reeled out his agenda
for the coming elections: inclusive growth,
jobs, better schools and training, stepping up
the fight against corruption and strengthening
the state to meet the people’s needs.
“It was 100% Cyril,” said a veteran African
National Congress (ANC) cadre in Cape Town’s
parliament square afterwards. “Thoughtful,
well-crafted, something for everyone.” Then
he paused: “But can he deliver on any of this?
His house is divided. The looters are not in
jail. Growth is worse than stagnant and we’re
losing more jobs.” So why the euphoria after
Ramaphosa finished speaking? “Because we
all want to believe in him. He’s won the ANC
over 55% of the vote already. Job done.”
Ramaphosa has set the ANC on course for
a victory that would suit him. It has to be over

55% of the vote to reverse the party’s decline
during Jacob Zuma’s era, but not a landslide
– which could encourage complacency. To
lead the ANC now – 25 years after its victory

24

THEAFRICAREPORT / N° 107 / APRIL-MAY-JUNE 2019

in South Africa’s first free elections – requires
an extraordinary set of skills.
That Ramaphosa – the student activist,
the militant unionist, the political organiser,
constitutional negotiator and then corporate
titan – has those skills is evident. Less obvious are his people skills. Many who have
worked closely with Ramaphosa say they do
not know the man.
Proudly announcing “I’m an enigma,”
Ramaphosa revels in this psychological inaccessibility, rare among such ubiquitous public
figures. Outgoing and gregarious, Ramaphosa
works a room with a natural gift for recalling
faces and personal stories. Rising at 5am, he
has taken to power walking, with security in
tow, chatting animatedly to the early-morning
workers he meets en route.
In the popular mind, that somehow offsets his country-gentleman-style enthusiasm
for fly fishing, golf and expensive herds of
Nguni and Ankole cattle. Allies say it points
to Ramaphosa’s chameleon-like qualities,
which have steered his career: from pushing

Harry Oppenheimer to raise miners’ wages to
becoming a mine owner himself.