The effect of ưomens education on fertility in vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS
HO CHI MINH CITY
VIETNAM

INSTIUTTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES
THE HAGUE
THE NETHERLANDS

VIETNAM- NETHERLANDS
PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

THE EFFECT OF WOMEN'S EDUCATION ON
FERTILITY IN VIETNAM
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

By

LE HOANG THIEN KIM

r

Academic Supervisor:

DR. NGUYEN HUU DUNG

-

--··,,

CERTIFICATION

I certify that the substance of this thesis has not already been submitted for any
degree and is not being current submitted for any other degree.

I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this
thesis and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this thesis.

I

LE HOANG THIEN KIM

•

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Firstly, I would like to thank my academic supervisor Dr. Nguyen Huu
Dung for his valuable advice, comments and making reference materials available
to me. Particularly, thanks to these worthy instructions and kindly help from him, I
can complete the research.

,

I greatly appreciate Mr. Truong Thanh Vu for his technique assistance and
valuable comments to the study.
Many thanks are respectfully sent to my parents, my husband who are
always encourage and sympathize with me

I would like to thank to all teachers and staffs of the Vietnam- Netherlands
programme at University of Economics HCM
Finally, I am indebted to Measure DHS Office - ICF Macro, especially
Bridgette James- data archive administrator for their assistance and permission to
access VDHS 2002 data so that I can complete my thesis.

"

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CERTIFICATION .......................................................................................................... i

A CKN0 WLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................. ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. iii
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ............................................................................ vi
ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................................... vii
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. viii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... !

1.1 Problem Statement .............................................................................................. 1
1.2 Research objectives ............................................................................................. 3
1.3 Research questions .............................................................................................. 3
1.4 Hypotheses .......................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Research Methodology ....................................................................................... 3
1.6 Structure of the thesis ......................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................. 6

2.1 Definitions, concepts related to fertility and its measures .................................. 6
2.2 Theoretical framework, empirical studies related to determinants of fertility ... 8

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2.2.1 Theoretical framework .............................................................................. 8
2.2.1.1 Household demand model ............................................................... 12
2.2.1.2 Demand- supply framework ........................................................... 16
2.2.2 Empirical studies related to effects of women's education on fertility ... 20
2.3 Summary ........................................................................................................... 25

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .......................................... 26
3.1 Structure of the VDHS 2002 ............................................................................. 26

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3.2 Data set ............................................................................................................. 27
3.3 Model specification ........................................................................................... 28
3.4 Description of variables in the model ............................................................... 29
3.4.1 Dependent variable .................................................................................. 29
3.4.2 Independent variables .............................................................................. 29
3.5 Estimation strategy ........................................................................................... 34
3.5.1 Poisson regression model (PRM) ............................................................ 35
3.5.2 Factor change in E(yJx) ........................................................................... 36
3.5.3 Percent change in E(yJx) ......................................................................... 37
3.6 Chapter summary .............................................................................................. 37

CHAPTER FOUR: SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT AND PROFILES OF
WOMEN'S FERTILITY ...................................................... 39

4.1 Geography and economy .................................................................................. 39
4.2 Population and family planning policies and programs .................................... 41
4.2.1 Population ................................................................................................ 41
4.2.2 Family Planning Policies and Programs ................................................. 43
4.3 General characteristics of women's fertility ..................................................... 44
4.4 Differentials in education level of women ........................................................ 46
4.5 Family planning message .................................................................................. 47
4.6 Children ever born ............................................................................................ 48
4. 7 Chapter summary .............................................................................................. 49
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CHAPTER FIVE: FACTORS AFFECT WOMEN'S FERTILITY IN VIETNAM........ 50
5.1 Empirical model ................................................................................................ 50
5.2 Estimation results .............................................................................................. 50
5.3 Summary ........................................................................................................... 55

CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ......................... 56

IV


6.1 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 56
6.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................. 57
6.3 Further Research ............................................................................................... 58
REFERENCES
APPENDIX

v

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Table 2.1: Narratives on the determinants offertility ................................................ 9
Table 2.2: Intervening variables in Cochrane's model on education and fertility . . 19
Table 4.1: Basic demographic indicators ............................................................... .42
Table 4.2: Distribution of ever-married women by background characteristics
(%), Vietnam 2002 ................................................................................... 45
Table 4.3: Level of education of ever-married women, Vietnam 2002 (%) ............ .46
Table 4.4: Exposure to family planning messages on radio and television (%) ..... .47
Table 4.5: Children ever born by ever-married women aged 15-49, classified by
place of residence and education level .................................................. .48
Table 5.1: Poisson Regression Results- Fertility model ........................................ 63

Figure 2.1: Key variables and interrelations in a variant of Easterlin 's supply demand model ............................................................................................................. 19

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ABBREVIATIONS
ASFR

Age-specific fertility rate

CBR

Crude birth rate

CEB

Children ever born

GFR

General Fertility rate

GSO

General Statistical Office

PRM

Poisson regression model

TFR

Total fertility rate

US AID

U.S. Agency for International Development

VDHS

Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey

./

Vll

ABSTRACT

There are numerous studies indicate that women's education plays an
important role in number of children ever born. This thesis aims to explore the
effect of women's education on fertility in Vietnam by using the 2002 Vietnam
Demographic and Health Survey. Given the characteristics of observed fertility
pattern, the study applied a count data model, namely, Poisson regression to
examine the effects of women's education and other determinants on fertility.
The major finding of the study is that women's education poses a strong
effect to reduce children born in Vietnam. The higher the educated women, the
lower the expected number of children. Similarly, education level of husband or
partners also influence the change in the number of children. Other determinants of
importance in the study show that the higher the age and age of giving first birth,
the lower the number of children ever born. Public program and knowledge such as
of ovulatory cycle and family planning positively help reducing fertility. Women
live in the rural areas still have a higher number of children than that of women in
the urban areas.
Recommendation for public policies and women health governance in
Vietnam should focus more on the education for low-educated women, improving
related knowledge of family planning, especially in the rural areas.

vm


CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Problem Statement

Population growth and socioeconomic development are an important issue to
Vietnamese policy makers and development planners. Vietnam has clearly made

significant progress in slowing its rapidly population growth. The decline in fertility
has been one of the most important demographic changes in recent years. The key
element behind the change in population in Vietnam is considered as a result at
fertility level. Many policies to reduce population growth received increasing
attention of the government and efforts to extend coverage of birth control services.
In January 1993, the Communist Party Central Committee for the first time
approved a resolution on population and family planning. The resolution proposed
the objective of "applying small-sized family," and recommended that "each family
should have one or two children" in order to lower fertility and stabilize population.
At the micro level, high population growth leads to a more serious issue of
poverty. Poorer families, especially women bear the burden of a large number of
children with fewer resources per child, further adding to the spiral of poverty. Low
levels of income among the poorer families with many children leads to inadequate
food availability, which perpetuates malnutrition, which in tum accelerates high
levels of infant mortality. Studies by Ernst and Angst (1983), King (1985) have
widely reviewed the relationship between family size, education and the health of
children. Among poorer families, beyond a certain family size, additional children

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are usually associated with lower average educational attainment and reduced levels
of child health as measured by nutritional status, and mortality.
Moreover, research findings from a number of studies on fertility in Vietnam
showed that women's education has a negative influence on fertility. For example,
Nguyen (2001) found that women's education was an important factor helped to
reduce the number of children born in Vietnam. In addition, a wide range of
empirical studies showed that raising level of education especially for women had
important effect on fertility. In their research in Sub-Sahara and Latin America,
Jejeebhoy (1995) and Martin (1995) showed that the inverse relationship between

education and fertility can be enhanced only after relatively high levels of education
have been attained.
Although many scholars found that education has a negative effect on
fertility, there are still certain limitations in term of estimation. Analysts employed
statistical estimation techniques such as linear (Ordinary least squares- OLS) that
are unsuitable for fertility data, which are based on counts (Long, 1997).
This paper examines the relationship between female schooling and fertility
in Vietnam through data from Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey 2002
(VDHS 2002), focusing on Vietnamese ever-married women aged from 15-49 years
old. Findings from the study is expected to be used in monitoring the achievements
of the government's population policies and programs in the years to come.

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1.2 Research objectives

The overall objective of the study is to examine the effect of women's
education on fertility in Vietnam.
Specifically, the objective of the thesis is to measure the likelihood of
controlling fertility regarding to women's education.

1.3 Research questions

Based on the research objectives, the paper will find out the answer of the
following question: Does women's schooling affect on fertility in Vietnam?

1.4 Hypotheses

The main research hypothesis concerning women's reproductive behavior to

be addressed is that fertility is significantly influenced by women's education
attainment.

1.5 Research Methodology

Data from Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey 2002 (VDHS2002) 1 is

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mainly used in this thesis. DHS funded by the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID)-is a worldwide comprehensive survey on demographic,
health and fertility indicators. The VDHS 2002 was carried out in the framework of
the activities of the Population and Family Health Project of the Committee for
Population, Family and Children (previously the National Committee for Population
and Family Planning). The VDHS 2002 was conducted by the General Statistical
1

Datasets and full explanation are available online from www.measuredhs.com

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Office (GSO) on behalf of the Population and Family Health Project of the
Committee of Population, Family and Children. Based on data set of VDHS2002, a
model used in the analysis is the Poisson regression that estimates the likelihood
that increasing women's schooling levels lower fertility in Vietnam.

1.6 Structure of the thesis

The thesis is organized in six chapters as follows:

Chapter one: Introduction. The chapter introduces the research problem,

research objectives, questions, hypothesis, and brief research methodology of the
thesis.
Chapter two: Literature review. This chapter begins with the definitions and

concepts of terms related to fertility. Then, theoretical framework and empirical
studies are reviewed.
Chapter three: Research methodology. The chapter presents source of data,

sub-data set for the study, explanation of the relevant variables and estimation
strategy.
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Chapter four: Socioeconomic context and respondent's profiles. It presents

the characteristics of respondent and the background of fertility in Vietnam based
on VDHS2002 data. In addition, it also provides descriptive statistics of fertility.
Chapter five: Factors affect women's fertility in Vietnam. The results of

regression analysis, interpretation of coefficients and their marginal effects to
fertility are shown.

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Chapter six: Conclusions and recommendations. This chapter is to

summarize the findings and conclude with some policy recommendations and
research limitation.

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CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW

The objective of the study is to examine the effect of women's education on
fertility. Therefore, the definitions and concepts related to fertility, their
measurements and determinants will be defined. After that theoretical framework
and empirical studies are also reviewed. The final section is to summarize of the
main point of literature review presented in the chapter.

2.1 Definitions, concepts related to fertility and its measures

In the jargon of demographers, there are two terms which are often used
synonymously; in fact they are different from each other. Fertility refers to a
number of children born to women. In the Multilingual Demographic Dictionary of
the United Nations, fertility means the actual reproductive performance of women,

whereas fecundity denotes the physical ability to reproduce.
Some measures of fertility are cited in Tran (2001: 60), Nguyen (2001:7),
VDHS 2002, as follows:
The most common measurement of fertility is the Total Fertility Rate
(TFR). The TFR is the average number of children that would be born to a woman

during her lifetime if she was to bear children at each age according to the
prevailing age-specific fertility rates. The TFR is obtained by summing the agespecific rates in a particular calendar year across all childbearing ages. Therefore,
the TFR shows a cross sectional picture of fertility and consists of values from

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many generations of women who are at different childbearing stages in any given
year. It is unaffected by the age and sex composition of the population and thus
separate change in actual fertility. It supposes that women don't die during the
reproductive age, so it isn't influenced by mortality.
An alternative measure of fertility is the Generational Fertility Rate. The
general fertility rate (GFR) which represents the annual number of births per

1,000 women in reproductive ages (15-49). Therefore it represents the actual
number of births that a particular cohort of women experienced over their
reproductive lifetime. It is affected by the age distribution of women in childbearing
age.
The crude birth rate (CBR) which represents the annual number of births

per 1,000 population. The CBR was estimated using the birth history data in
conjunction with the population data collected in the household schedule. It is
influenced by time and space, depending on many factors such as intensity of
reproductive process, age and sex structure of population. Consequently, CBR is
just an indicator that approximately reflects the actual fertility rate.
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) are calculated by dividing the number of

births to women in a specific age group by the number of woman-years lived during
a given period

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Age-specific fertility rates are useful in understanding the age

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Numerators for the age-specific fertility rates were obtained by classifying births during the 5-year period
prior to the survey into standard five-year age groups, according to the mother's age at the time of birth and
summing. Den~minators fo.r the r~tes were the numbe~ of person-years lived by all women in each five~ year
age group dunng the penod. Smce only ever-rnamed women were interviewed in the VDHS, it was

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pattern of fertility. In an ever-married sample of women such as in the VDHS, the
calculation of all-women fertility rates makes the implicit assumption that no births
occurred among women who have never married.
Children ever born (CEB) are the average number of live births that
women has had during her lifetime. It is derived from data gathered by censuses or
surveys.
Different from the macro measures of fertility mentioned above, which refer
to fertility of population, CEB is a micro measure covering individuals or
household.

As a micro indicator, CEB is often employed in studies of micro

fertility behavior because of its simplicity for collecting data.

2.2 Theoretical framework, empirical studies related to determinants of
fertility
2.2.1 Theoretical framework
Van de Kaa (1996) organizes the literature on fertility written in the second

half of the twentieth century and classifies them according to their main "narrative",
that means what story a piece of demographic literature is talking about. His work
provides a convenient and clear picture of the different schools of thought reflected

necessary to inflate the number of person-years lived by ever-married women by factors representing the
proportion of women who were ever-married in each age group. These factors were calculated from the data
collected in the household schedule. Never-married women were presumed not to have given birth. In
Vietnam, few births occur outside of marriage so that any underestimation of fertility from this source is
negligible.

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in various researches on fertility. Table 2.1 shows a summary of the different
narratives and their specific themes .

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Table 2.1: Narratives on the determinants offertility

Narratives
Classical: Initial Narrative

S_Qecific Themes of Research
Explanations for "what people all know about the
way things go in this world"
• Social progress and desire for mobility
• Increasing rationalization of behavior
• Modernization process and the demographic
transition theory

Proximate determinants and mortality decline

Biological and Technological

• Fecundability of a woman
• Concept of natural fertility
• Eleven intermediate fertility variables which
affect the exposure to the risk of conception
• Exposure factors, deliberate marital control and
natural marital control
• Falling infant and child mortality

Economic

Application of microeconomic theories
• Consumer choice demand for children theory
• Demand-supply oriented, combining biological

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and sociological elements, and later fertility
regulation and cost
Social

Changing function of the family and the value of
children
• Pre-transitional societies favored early marriage
and high fertility.
• Social conditions determining intergenerational

wealth flow
• Macro-analytic framework that includes the
socio-cultural context, education, occupation and
location
• Non-economic value of children: Social and
psychological

Innovation, Diffusion, and

Innovation and diffusion of ideas and practices

Ideational and Cultural

• Spread of the practice of fertility regulation

Change

• Effects of changes in value systems

Path-Dependency and

Fertility

Institutional Change

influenced by clusters of behavioral rules

variables

and

determinants

• Path-dependent behavioral rules
• Institutional determinants

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being


Source ofbasic data: Van de Kaa (1996).
At least six themes have been identified, namely, the classical narratives
revolving around the initial explanations of demographic changes, the biological
and technological narratives on the proximate determinants of fertility, the
economic narratives using microeconomic theories, the social narratives about the
family and society, the narratives on innovation and diffusion of ideas and practices
and the narratives of path-dependency behavior and institutional changes.
The narratives involving economic models on fertility are largely
microeconomic in approach. The two main groups of studies include demandoriented consumer choice theories and the demand-supply analytical framework.
One usual argument in economic models uses the concept of opportunity cost of
childcare to argue that there is a negative relationship between parental education
and fertility: more educated parents, who are usually working parents, give up some
income-earning opportunities when they devote more time to childcare, so they
would rather have fewer children. If such behavior indeed happens, this is the socalled dominant substitution effect. It may further be said that the income earned
from devoting more time working can be used to provide for better quality childcare
to fewer children. An alternative picture is that a positive relationship between
education and fertility is also possible. This is the case of a dominant income effect,
wherein the more educated and presumably working parents will be earning an
income enough to afford raising more children. Which of these scenarios apply to a

given society depends on empirical testing.

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2.2.1.1 Household demand model
The theoretical framework for modeling fertility has mainly exposed by
Becker. He argued that fertility is determined by the interaction between quantity
and quality of children, which are separate argument in the utility function. The
quality - quantity approach developed by Becker (1960) and Becker and Lewis
(1973) emphasizes that there is likely a substitution effect from quantity to quality
of children with rising family income. The key feature in Becker analysis is that the
shadow prices of children with respect to their number (the cost of an additional
child, holding their quality constant) is greater the higher their quality is. Similarly,
the shadow price of children with respect to their quality (the cost of a unit increase
in quality, holding number constant) is greater, the greater the number of children.
To illustrate this reasoning, the following simple utility function was specified:
U =u (n, q, y)

(1)

Where n is the number of children, q is their quality and y

IS

the rate of

consumption of all other commodities. The budget constraint is
I =nq1r +yzy
I is the full income,

7r

is the price of nq and

(2)
1r)'

is the price of y. The first order

conditions optimization are:

Un = Aq7r =f.pn
Uq= Amr=f.pq
Uy=Azy=f.py (3)

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The important point is that the shadow price of children respect to number
(pn) is positively related to q, the level of quality, and the shadow price with respect
to quality (pq) is positively related to n, the number children. Quality has a major
effect on the resource constraint because the cost of an additional child depends on
its quality, while the full cost of higher quality children depends on their number.
The economic interpretation is that an increase in quality is more expensive if there
are more children because the increase has to apply to more units. Similarly, an
increase in quantity is more expensive if the children are of higher quality, because
higher quality children cost more. A simple modification of constraint in (2) is:
R= npn+qpq+ypy= I+nq?r

(4)

The interaction between the quantity and quality of children in the non-linear
budget equation and also in the utility function has several paradoxical implications
on fertility. Explicitly a rise in income could reduce the demand for children if
higher income greatly increases the education and other training of children. The
reason is that higher expenditures on training increase the variable cost of children,
and could dominate the increased demand due to the income effect (Becker 1960,
Willis 1973, Becker and Lewis 1973). An increase in quality per child implies an
increase in costs raising a child, which decreases fertility. For more technical details
see Becker and Lewis 1973. The improvement of the women human capital level
following a high achievement enrollment, increase the time cost and notably the
price of the service offered to bearing and rearing children. Henceforth, the burden
of raising child increase and so the desire to have an additional child decreaseso

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Beside that, the rise of the mother's time value encourages her to participate
intensively in the labor market. This improvement of the well being empowers her
to actively participate in the decision making within the family in favor of fertility
decrease, Schultz (1990). The fertility is determined by female wage and family
income, which are assumed to measure the time cost of raising children and earning
potential. Increases in the value of female time by female wage increase tend to
increase the children cost. A negative effect on fertility is so expected since the
opportunity cost of having children increases. Therefore, fertility decision is taken
in putting in balance the advantage and cost of an additional birth. The increase in
the wife's wage enhances of course the family income but it will also increase the
opportunity cost of child bearing and rearing. The change of women's wage and
family income present two fold an income and a price effect. The effect of change is

depending of the magnitude of setting income and substitution effects. Becker
argues that the substitution effect would be larger than the income effect, referring
to his assumption that the income elasticity of demand for child quality is larger
then the income elasticity of demand for child quantity. Henceforth, higher family
income would lead fewer children and high quality per child. The net effect of
income on fertility depends on the relative strength of the income effect to the
substitution effect. Also, an asymmetric effect on fertility can be observed with a
positive wage's change resulting by an improvement of the level of the men's
human capital or by the rise of his market wage rate that increases the family's
income. Improvement of human capital and the education development provides to

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woman as man a multiple choice on their lifestyle and the autonomy in the marital
timing decision. Education development lets woman to delays her marriage age.
Hence educated woman doesn't use the total fertility period and so has few children
in comparison to the less educated one.
Becker's work belongs to the so-called economic sub-discipline of household
or new home economics, which uses the household production concept. Household
economic modeling was used as early as 1957 by Leibenstein and in the later years
has found its way into various aspects of family life. Van de Kaa ( 1996) considers
the common features of the new home economics studies to include the use of a
time constraint especially for women, the household stock of human and physical
capital, and the lifecycle conditions influencing labor market training, migration,
marriage, children and retirement savings.
In addition, a prominent approach, which is associated with the "New
Household Economics," begins from the proposition that members of the household
unit seek to maximize income. In this formulation, it is assumed that women and
men respond to economic incentive structures. Accordingly, the theory predicts that

once education is provided as a public good and becomes widespread for women
and men, an increase in education leads to a decline in fertility, all things being
equal. The putative mechanism for this effect is the opportunity costs associated
with caring for children as education increases. As women acquire skill sets useful
in the marketplace with higher levels of educational attainment, they tend to
command a higher wage, increasing the value of their time. To the degree that

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education raises women's and men's earning potential in the labor market, the
theory also implies that education reduces the incentive to attempt to use fertility as
a mechanism to increase family production and income. While recognizing the
micro-economic influences of education, complementary approaches suggest that
the link between education and fertility is more complex. A theoretically eclectic
framework developed by Castro Martin and Juarez hypothesizes that education may
depress fertility rates for a number of reasons, including improved literacy and
cognitive skills that increase the likelihood of interaction between women and
public health institutions; improved knowledge of the biology of reproduction
(which raises the potential efficacy of contraceptive use); and changes in attitudes
that that raise the likelihood of using contraceptives

2.2.1.2 Demand - supply framework

Van de Kaa (1996, p. 410) highlights the following important findings in the
demand-oriented models: there is a strong interaction between the quantity and
quality of children although the two are not close substitutes, and the demand for
children is highly responsive to their price. This means that parents often consider
the kind of life they can offer to their children when they make decisions about
family size, and this includes the costs of childcare. But Van de Kaa also exposes a

potential weakness in this model, i.e., it may be hard to apply to less developed
countries because time may not be a real constraint to numerous low-income
households.

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