Finding a sustainable solution for the fate of lottery peddlers in a changing market

FINDING A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION FOR THE FATE OF
LOTTERY PEDDLERS IN A CHANGING MARKET
Ngan T. H. Nguyen

Viet D. Trinh

School of Business, International University - Vietnam
National University - Ho Chi Minh City
Abstract
The lottery market in Vietnam has witnessed a whirlwind of changes in recent
years, starting with the introduction of computerized lotteries and resulting in the
uncertain fate of traditional lottery peddlers. To understand the role of peddlers in the
lottery distribution, this paper focuses on examining key determinants of lottery purchase
intention, including gambling tendencies, sympathetic altruism, and perceived behavioral
control. The findings serve as an instrument to validate the contribution of lottery peddlers
and to predict their future in the industry, from which appropriate recommendations are
put forward regarding the sustainable development of the lottery industry as well as the
long-term solution for the fate of lottery peddlers.
Keywords: Lottery, Computerized lottery, Peddlers,
Sustainable development

Gambling,

Altruism,

1. Iintroduction
Research background
Traditionally, all lottery companies in Vietnam operate in the same non-digital way:
players would buy tickets that have random numbers printed on, out of which the host
company would then draw the winning number. Prior to the entrance of computerized
lotteries, traditional lotteries used to dominate the Vietnamese market.

Since its introduction of self-selection jackpot lotteries in 2015 to the Vietnamese
market, Vietlott has caused a great disruption in the industry. Unlike the traditional
lotteries, the self-selected games allow the players to choose their own set of numbers
and have these numbers printed onto their tickets immediately. Moreover, the prizes of
these jackpot games are much higher: while traditional lotteries offer the highest price at
2 billion VND, the special prize of Power 6/55 starts at 30 billion VND and accumulates
throughout the drawings, often amounting to 300 billion. Furthermore, to assist players in
staying updated and well-informed about the games, Vietlott launches an official mobile
app, in which all the game instructions, trial games, news, and drawing results are
available with one tap.

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Rationally, gamblers are easily incentivized to switch to computerized jackpots,
since the potential rewards are so much greater while the ticket price is only 10,000 VND,
just the same as that of traditional lotteries.
Since the introduction of self-selected lotteries, traditional lottery companies
constantly reported slowdown, claiming computerized lotteries have taken away their shares.
For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, the region accounting for a mammoth share of total
revenue of Vietlott, the Lottery Company for the Construction of Ho Chi Minh City reported
the lowest profit in 5 years in 2017. Another example is the Lottery Company for the
Construction of Tien Giang Province, whose earnings before tax drops so sharply that it had
to adjust 2017 target growth rate to only 0.02% (vnexpress.net). Meanwhile, the year-on-year
growth rates in revenue of Vietlott in the same period was 237.5% (danviet.vn).
Amid the whirlwind of changes in the industry and the redistribution of the lottery
market, surprisingly, little focus has been made on the peddlers although they are
collectively a unique attribute of the lottery industry in Vietnam. Easily found on every
street and in every alley, at least 1,300 peddlers currently operate in Ho Chi Minh city
(bnews.vn). Every day, they would travel approximately from 20 to 30km, striving to sell

out at least 100 tickets to earn 100,000 - 120,000 per day, making a total of only 3,000,000
- 3,600,000 VND per month. Peddlers are typically the disabled, the elderly and young
children, thus, they have little capabilities to perform any kind of jobs other than travelling
and asking passers-by to buy some luck from the tickets.
Now they are even more vulnerable than ever, since traditional lotteries are vastly
endangered, facing tough competition from the computerized jackpots. Peddlers cannot
benefit from computerized lotteries either because the involvement of peddlers in reselling
the computerized lotteries thus far is deemed illegal by the local authorities. To switch to
opening a stationary vendor to distribute computerized lotteries is also highly improbable:
a minimum investment of 95 million VND and a fixed place, as required by Vietlott, are
completely out of reach for most peddlers.
The prospects of these peddlers, therefore, is dependent on their role in the lottery
industry: whether the purchase of lottery tickets is encouraged by the presence of the
peddlers in any way, or they are virtually dispensable in the distributing system. To answer
these questions, this paper studies what make(s) people want to purchase lotteries.
The research aims to answer these following questions:
(1) What factors influence lottery purchase intention among lottery buyers in Vietnam?
(2) Of the confirmed determinants, which one(s) have the greatest effect?
(3) How do the peddlers affect the lottery distribution system in Ho Chi Minh city?
2. Literature review
2.1. Previous studies on lotteries
2.1.1. Lotteries as a commodity
Lotteries purchasing is as much a consumption as an investment (Gerchak & Gupta,
1987). As a consuming good, the demand for lotteries is determined by economic factors

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(such as prices, income levels of buyers) and demographic factors (age, gender, education
level, occupation) (Clotfelter and Cook, 1990). Regarding these factors, there are some

universally proven correlations between certain demographic features and the frequency of
lottery purchase. For instance, many studies pointed out that lower socio-economic classes
would participate more frequently in lottery play (Rogers, 1998; Brown, Kaldenberg &
Browne, 1992; P. Thong & L. Huy, 2013). Seeking explanations for this phenomenon,
Walker (1992) suggested that it may be due to their poor understanding of the low odds
they are engaging with, while Brenner (1986) and Herring & Bledsoe (1994) discovered
that frequent players saw lotteries as an escape from poverty.
As an investment, lotteries are considered risky financial assets which offer a
chance of a great economic reward (Clotfelter & Cook, 1990). Even with the poor chance
of winning, people still participate in lotteries simply because the reward is much greater
than the amount invested. Among the determinants of lottery expenditures studied by P.
Thong & L. Huy (2013), the ―hope to win‖ variable is found to have a great effect: the
greater hope a player had, the more money they would spend on lotteries.
2.1.2. Lotteries to promote the public good and help others
In addition to a commodity, lotteries are also perceived as a way to promote public
services and support the government‘s earning. However, this factor, according to most
studies in other countries, is not a primary reason why people purchase lottery (Clotfelter
& Cook, 1990; Miyazaki, Langenderfer & Sprott, 1999).
However, the study on lotteries expenditures by P. Thong and L. Huy (2013) suggested
the opposite. Accordingly, people with a higher sense of altruism were likely to spend more
heavily on constructive lotteries. This is supported by the strong correlation between the
variable ―Helping the peddlers‖ and the actual expenditures of Can Tho residents.
This gap of understanding might have to do with the peddlers - a unique force in the
lottery industry of Vietnam. As P. Thong and Huy (2013) suggested, the advantage of the
peddlers is twofold: their mobility greatly enhances the convenience to the lottery
customers; while their presence triggers altruistic motivation, thus, compelling passers-by
to buy lotteries.
2.1.3. Factors of lottery purchase intention
With respect to all of the studies above, the factors that motivate people in Vietnam
to purchase lotteries can be generalized as three main sources: (1) people buy lotteries for

gambling purpose in hope of economic gains, (2) people buy lotteries out of empathy for
the peddlers, and (3) people buy lotteries because the presence of the peddlers make it easy
to do so. This paper aims to investigate these factors in their relations with the buying
intention, rather than the actual purchasing behavior.
2.2. Lottery purchase intention
One of the most well-known and heavily studied consumer theories in predicting
consumer buying intention is Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) (Ajzen, 1985, 1991).

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TPB maintains that the behavior of a customer is determined by his or her behavioral
intention to perform that act. The determinants of this intention are the attitude and the
subjective norms (Fishbein & Ajzen, 1975), and perceived behavioral control (Ajxen,
1985, 1991), as illustrated in Figure 1. In this model, while the attitude and the perceived
behavioral control reflect the consumer‘s personal beliefs, the latter is under influence of
social normative beliefs (Hansen et al., 2004) - rather than his or her own. Therefore, the
outcome is a result of both internal and external factors.

Behavioral
Beliefs

Attitude

Normative
Beliefs

Subjective
Norms

Control
Beliefs

Perceived
Behavioral
Control

Behavioral
Intention

Behavioral

Figure 2: Theory of Planned Behavior

The model has proven to have strong capabilities of explaining and predicting
customer buying intention in many studies across multiple industries, such as online
grocery buying intention (Hansen et al., 2004), intentions to purchase organic food (Arvola
et al., 2008), condom use (Albarracín et al., 2001), and lottery play in Canada (Walker,
Courneya & Deng, 2017). Such results lay a solid foundation for following propositions.
Firstly, the attitude towards purchasing will predict the purchase intention.
Secondly, to clarify what leads to this attitude, it is necessary to determine behavioral
beliefs of a person‘s evaluation of lottery purchase action. In this research, gambling and
empathy towards peddlers are expected to function that attitude towards lotteries
purchasing. Hence, it is hypothesized that:
H1: Attitude towards lottery purchase behavior positively relates to lottery
purchase intention.
Thirdly, the perceived behavioral control towards lottery purchase will predict the
purchase intention. Perceived behavior control over lottery purchase, defined as the ease to
perform that behavior (self-efficacy) and the possible obstacles along the way
(controllability) (Ajzen, 2002; Hansen et al., 2004), is expected to correlate with the

presence with the peddlers. This discussion gives:
H2: Perceived behavior control towards lottery purchase positively relates to
lottery purchase intention.

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2.3. Gambling tendencies
Lottery play is associated with gambling in most studies. Rogers (1998), Griffiths
and Wood (1999), and Ariyabuddhiphongs (2011) all regarded lottery play as ―lottery
gambling‖. Clearly, there is a close relationship between lottery play and gambling.
Gambling is often defined as an act of risking (or wagering) money or valuables on
the outcome of a game, a contest, or any other event in the hope of winning additional
money or material goods (Meyer, Hayer & Griffiths, 2009). It is characterized by beliefs
an individual upholds about the results coming from gambling (Cummings & Corney,
1987). Essentially, such reviews on the concept of gambling matched with the description
of behavioral beliefs in the TPB model by Ajzen (1985, 1991). Thus:
H3: Gambling positively relates to the attitude towards lottery purchase.
2.4. Sympathetic altruism
As discussed, the study of P. Thong and L. Huy (2013) on lotteries expenditures
discovered that ―helping the peddlers‖ factor played an important role in determining a
person‘s spending on lotteries. Since the vast majority of the peddlers are children, the
elderly and the disabled, who look shabby and unkempt, it can be deduced that their
presence has triggered some emotional response from the buyer -- either sympathy or
empathy -- and compelled them to take action by purchasing the lotteries. In other words,
the feeling of sympathy/empathy results in altruism. This aligns with the study results by
Eisenberg et al., (1989), Batson (1987) and many others, in which the sense of
sympathy/empathy was positively related to altruistic behavior. Since altruism is the belief
in or the practice of disinterested and selfless concern for the well-being of others, this
must be among the factors that drive one‘s behavioral beliefs, matching well with the

description of the TPB. Therefore:
H4: Sympathetic altruism positively relates to the attitude towards lottery purchase.

Gambling

H3

Attitude towards
purchasing
lotteries

Sympathetic
altruism

H1

Lottery purchase
intention

H4

Perceived
Behavioral
Control

H2

Figure 3. Proposed conceptual framework

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3. Methodology
3.1. Data collection
Aiming to examine the determinants of lottery purchase intention in Vietnam, this
study gathers data from 248 observes via a standardized questionnaire. To yield the most
representative sample, the target respondents are Ho Chi Minh City residents of all
backgrounds, who have purchased lottery previously. Moreover, the survey is conducted
offline via convenience sampling method. Finally, only those of 18 years of age or above
with complete mental functionalities are valid respondents, since they are legitimately
responsible for their behaviors. The process of data collection is completed within two
weeks to minimize the effect of other uncontrollable variations.
3.2. Variable measurements
The questionnaire consists of two parts:
 Demographic information: This part concerns some background information of
the respondents to determine whether they are suitable subjects, who can provide a valid
answer as a lottery purchaser. Furthermore, the information given in this part also
demonstrate some demographic characteristics of the respondents.
 Survey questionnaire: The scale consists of 23 measurement items of five
factors, using 5-point Likert scale: Lottery purchase intention (4-item scale adapted from
Lu, 2014), Attitude towards purchasing lotteries (5-item scaled adapted from George,
2004), Perceived behavioral control (5-item scale adapted from George, 2004, Hansen et
al., 2004), Gambling (6-item scale adapted from Rosseau et al., 2002), and Sympathetic
altruism (4-item scale adapted from Davis, 1980).
4. Data analysis
4.1. Descriptive analysis
Table 1 illustrates the consumption trends in terms of lottery types and channels of
distribution. The figures indicate two things. Firstly, traditional lotteries still remain popular
in Ho Chi Minh city, accounting for 79%. Secondly, the peddlers do have significant
contributions to the distribution of lotteries as 51% of the respondents purchased lotteries

from them. However, the participation of peddlers only reflected heavily in the purchase of
tradition lotteries (77%), as opposed to little impact on computerized lotteries (21%),
indicating the role of the peddlers is only active in the traditional types.
Table 1. Types of lottery and Channels of distribution
Types of Lottery
Distr. Channel

Traditional

Computerized

Both

Freq

%

Freq

%

Freq

%

Vendor

12

10.17

33

62.26

28

36.36

Peddler

91

77.12

11

20.75

39

50.65

Both

15

12.71

9

16.98

10

12.99

Total

118

100

53

100

77

100

47.58

21.37

31.05

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4.2. Statistical analysis
The data analysis procedure includes reliability test, exploratory factor analysis
(EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and structural equation modelling (SEM).
Internal consistency of the data is confirmed by reliability test with all Cronbach‘s alpha
value above 0.7, indicating that the items are well-designed and correlate to one another
(George and Mallery, 2003). The EFA, on the other hand, confirmed the independence of
the variables from one another as shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Factor loading
Observed
Latent variables
variables
GAM1
Gambling
GAM2
GAM3
GAM4
GAM5
GAM6
SYM1
Sympathetic altruism
SYM2
SYM3
SYM4
PBC1
Perceived behavioral control
PBC2
PBC3
PBC4
PBC5
ATT1

Attitude towards purchasing
ATT2
lotteries
ATT3
ATT4
ATT5
INT1
Lottery purchase intention
INT2
INT3
INT4
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy.
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity

Factor
loading
.759
.732
.765
.696
.707
.742
.821
.817
.835
.856
.780
.855
.835
.647

.833
.753
.662
.754
.733
.730
.842
.797
.817
.757
df
Sig.

Cronbach
Alpha
.854

.869

.862

.613

.726

.849
105
.000

After the reliability test and the EFA, the CFA was performed to examine the fit

between the proposed theoretical framework and the data set according to indicators of
goodness-of-fit. Table 3 summarizes the values of model fit measurements as proposed by
Joreskog (1969), Bentler and Bonett (1980), McIver and Carmines (1981), Chin and Todd

460


(1995), MacCallum et al. (1996); Wheaton et al. (1997); Hair et al. (1998), and Tabachnick
and Fidell (2007). Overall, the values indicated good model fit for the research.
Table 3. Model fit measurements
Criteria

Value

Result

≤ 2**; ≤ 3*

1.629

Very good

≥ 0.9**; ≥ 0/8*
≥ 0.9**

.883

Acceptable

.936

Very good

≥ 0.9
≤ 0.05**; ≤ 0.08*
≥ 0.05**

.927

Very good

.050
.457

Acceptable
Acceptable

Measurements
Chi-square/df
Absolute fit index (GFI)
Incremental fit index (CFI)
One goodness-of-fit index (TLI)
One badness-of-fit index (RMSEA)
P-CLOSE

Finally, SEM was used to validate the relationships in the proposed framework. As
the path estimates indicated, three out of four hypotheses were supported (see Table 4).
Attitude towards purchasing lotteries was found to have a positive influence on the
intention to purchase lotteries.
Table 4. Hypotheses testing results

Hypotheses
H1. Attitude towards lottery purchase behavior
positively relates to lottery purchase intention.
H2. Perceived behavior control towards lottery
purchase positively relates to lottery purchase
intention.
H3. Gambling positively relates to the attitude
towards lottery purchase.
H4. Sympathetic altruism positively relates to
the attitude towards lottery purchase.

Path estimates

p-value

Conclusion

.332

.001

Supported

.032

.576

Not
supported

.223

.002

Supported

.178

***

Supported

Additionally, both gambling and sympathetic altruism helped shaping the positive
attitude towards lottery purchase, however, gambling stood out as the more critical
determinant. Meanwhile, no clear effect from perceived behavioral control on the attitude
was detected.
As statistical analyses revealed, the total effect equation of the two exogenous latent
variables (GAMBLING and SYMPATHETICALTRUISM) towards endogenous latent
variable (INTENTION) through the mediator (ATTITUDE) was:
PURCHASEINTENTION = (0.074 * GAMBLING) + (0.059 *
SYMPATHETICALTRUISM)
4.3. Group variable evaluation
The sample represented all groups of age, occupation, and income level. However,
the sig. from Levene‘s Test of Equality of Error Variances was .204 (greater than .05),
indicating no significant difference in variance between group variables (age, occupation,

461


personal income). The tests of between-subjects effects also suggested that there were no

integrated effects between occupations, age, and personal income levels towards purchase
intention. It is also indicated that there was no effect of group variables towards purchase
intention (Table 5).
Table 5. Tests of between-subjects effects
Type III Sum
of Squares

df

Mean
Square

F

Sig.

Partial Eta
Square

Corrected Model

27.458a

43

.639

1.149

.259

.195

Intercept

796.268

1

796.268

1433.114 .000

.875

Occupation

1.323

4

.331

.595

.666

.012

Age

1.985

4

.496

.893

.469

.017

PersonalIncome

.804

3

.268

.483

.695

.007

Occupation * Age

7.857

7

1.122

2.020

.054

.065

Occupation *
PersonalIncome

3.956

6

.659

1.187

.315

.034

Age * PersonalIncome

5.124

8

.640

1.153

.330

.043

Occupation * Age *
PersonalIncome

7.799

9

.867

1.560

.129

.064

Error

113.347

204

.556

Total

3585.313

248

Corrected Total

140.804

247

Source

5. Discussions and conclusions
This research proposed three factors as determinants of lottery purchase intention:
gambling, sympathetic altruism, and perceived behavioral control. Statistical analyses of a
sample of 248 respondents revealed that gambling and sympathetic altruism can predict the
purchase intention of lotteries. It was found that there was no difference among
demographic groups.
The study also confirmed the relationship between the attitude towards lottery
purchase and the purchase intention, as Theory of Planned Behavior has put forward.
However, the variance was only a little higher than average, implying that there might be
other factors apart from attitude.
Gambling was found to have an influence on the attitude of the lottery player. This
revelation correlates to the previous findings of gambling and lottery play.
Moreover, the study confirmed the positive effects of sympathetic altruism on the

attitude of customers, aligning with the suggestions made by P. Thong & L. Huy (2013).
This relationship, however, has not been addressed anywhere else in the world, as the
peddlers are collectively a unique feature of Vietnam.

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As the descriptive analysis pointed out, a large proportion of lottery purchases are
attributable to the presence of peddlers in the case of traditional lotteries but not of
computerized lotteries. With the gambling‘s effect being more significant than that of
sympathetic altruism, the rise of Vietlott may tilt the interests of lottery players more
heavily to gambling motivation, thus, putting the well-being of the peddlers at risks.
Perceived behavioral control was found to have no influence on the intention of
buying lotteries, which is inconsistent with the Theory of Planned Behavior. A possible
explanation could lie in the way how people perceive their ability to control the behavior:
A good part of PBC deals with how conveniently and readily the lotteries are for customers
to purchase, and the current distribution of lotteries are not convenient enough, the PBC
virtually has no impact on their purchase intention. Perhaps when the lotteries are officially
open for sales through online channels, thus, giving customers more control over the
purchases, the effects of PBC will apply.
From a social standpoint, this research produced some insightful understanding of
how the lucrative lottery business has been affecting people‘s lives. Firstly, it revealed that
a large number of lottery purchases were made out of sympathetic altruism. In other words,
the role of the peddlers in the lottery distribution is affirmative, in which they have solid
contributions to the business while trying to make their ends meet. Secondly, gambling,
too, is a popular motivation of lottery purchase, and it is more so than altruism is. This
raises a question of whether gambling tendencies will eventually overwhelm the effects of
altruism, as Vietlott is escalating the games and offering bigger and bigger rewards. If it
does, it will take down thousands of the poor, the incapable of labor.
Although Vietlott can hardly be blamed for the potential unemployment of those

peddlers, it is its corporate social responsibility to counterbalance the impacts it has made
while conducting business. As a financially successful and socially responsible firm,
Vietlott possesses the power to make a difference. One possible short-term solution is to
have a charitable fund or make a donation to the peddlers. Regarding the long-term
scenario, it would be best to create jobs for the peddlers, such as offering them an
allowance to open small trade businesses, or sell handicraft products, or educate some to
become tour-guides. These jobs require similar skills to selling lotteries -- selling and
presentation -- and little direct labor efforts, which can be executed by the peddlers. The
last solution might take initial investments in terms of organizing and educating, but its
returns is two-fold: not only does it solve the peddlers‘ unemployment issues in the long
run, but it can also raise Vietlott‘s profile as a cause-centric business, staying true to what
it has been positioning -- ―Chance to better‖ -- bettering the lives of the players, and
bettering the lives of the peddlers.
However, due to resource limitations, this paper can only provide such suggestions
regarding the peddlers‘ potential unemployment issue, thus, encouraging further research
to validate these solutions and explore other options.

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