Part I
Project Initiation
Copyright 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Project Management
22
Chapter 2
Strategic
Management and
Project Selection
Copyright 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Problems With Multiple Projects
Delays in one project delays others
Inefficient use of resources
Bottlenecks in resource availability
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Project Results
30% canceled midstream
Over half of completed projects came in
up to
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190% over budget
220% late
<50% of strategic projects successful
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Challenges
Making sure projects are closely tied to
goals and strategy.
How to handle the growing number of
projects?
How to make these projects successful?
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Project Management Maturity
Project management maturity refers to
the mastery of skills required to manage
projects competently
Number of ways to measure
Most organizations do not do well
Maturity can be rated in levels
Initial Repeatable Defined Managed Optimizing
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Project Selection and Criteria of Choice
Project selection…
–
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Evaluating
Choosing
Implementing
Same process as other business
decisions
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Types of Companies
Companies considering projects fall into two
broad categories:
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Companies whose core business is completing
projects
Companies whose core business is something else
They can also be broken down as:
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Companies looking at projects to do for others
Companies looking at projects to do for themselves
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Model Criteria
Realism
Capability
Flexibility
Ease of use
Cost
Easy computerization
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The Nature of Project Selection Models
Models turn inputs into outputs
Managers decide on the values for the inputs
and evaluate the outputs
The inputs never fully describe the situation
The outputs never fully describe the expected
results
Models are tools
Managers are the decision makers
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Types of Project Selection Models
Nonnumeric models
Numeric models
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Nonnumeric Models
Models that do not return a numeric value
for a project to be compared with other
projects
These are really not “models” but rather
justifications for projects
Just because they are not true models
does not make them all “bad”
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Types of Nonnumeric Models
Sacred Cow
–
A project, often suggested by the top management,
that has taken on a life of its own
Operating Necessity
–
A project that is required in order to protect lives or
property or to keep the company in operation
Competitive Necessity
–
A project that is required in order to maintain the
company’s position in the marketplace
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Types of Nonnumeric Models Continued
Product Line Extension
–
Often, projects to expand a product line are
evaluated on how well the new product meshes with
the existing product line rather than on overall
benefits
Comparative Benefit
–
Projects are subjectively rank ordered based on their
perceived benefit to the company
Sustainability
–
Focusing on longterm profitability rather than short
run payoff
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QSort Method
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Numeric Models
Models that return a numeric value for a
project that can be easily compared with
other projects
Major types
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Profit/profitability
Real Options
Scoring
Windowofopportunity analysis
Discoverydriven planning
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Numeric Models: Profit/Profitability
Models that look at costs and revenues
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Payback period
Discounted cash flow (NPV)
Internal rate of return (IRR)
Profitability index
NPV and IRR are the more common
methods
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Payback Period
The length of time until the original
investment has been recouped by the
project
A shorter payback period is better
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Payback Period Example
Payback Period
Project Cost
Annual Cash Flow
Payback Period
$100,000
$25,000
4
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Payback Period Drawbacks
Does not consider time value of money
More difficult to use when cash flows
change over time
Less meaningful for longer periods of
time (due to time value of money)
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Discounted Cash Flow
The value of a stream of cash inflows and
outflows in today’s dollars
Also know as discounted cash flow or just
discounting
Widely used to evaluate projects
Includes the time value of money
Includes all inflows and outflows, not just
the ones through payback point
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Discounted Cash Flow Continued
Requires a percentage to use to reduce
future cash flows
–
This is known as the discount rate
The discount rate may also be known as
a hurdle rate or cutoff rate
There will usually be one overall discount
rate for the company
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NPV Formula
NPV (project) = A0 +
n
t =1
Ft
( 1+ k )
t
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NPV Formula Terms
A0
Initial cash investment
Ft
Cash flow in time period t (negative for
outflows)
k
The discount rate
t
The number of years of life
A higher NPV is better
Higher the discount rate lower the NPV
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