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6
Decision-Making
Processes
Stewart L. Tubbs
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 2
Decision-Making Processes
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McGrawHill
Glossary
Case Study
Improving Creativity
Reflective Thinking Process
The KepnerTregoe Approach
The Fishbone Technique
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 3
Decision-Making Processes
(continued)
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McGrawHill
Brainstorming
Six Thinking Hats
Incrementation
Mixed Scanning
Tacit Bargaining
The Systems Approach
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 4
Glossary
• Brainstorming—a technique used to generate ideas. It
emphasizes brain activity. It can be applied as part of the
problemsolving process.
• Convergent Thinking—a form of thinking in which
ideas come together to form a solution.
• Divergent Thinking—a form of thinking in which
many different aspects of an idea are explored.
Brainstorming is one technique of divergent thinking.
• Fishbone Technique—a method of examining cause
and effect using a fishbone diagram.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 5
Glossary
• Incrementalism—the process of making decisions that
result in change by increments.
• KepnerTregoe Approach—a variation of the
reflective thinking sequence. Its most important
contribution is the way in which a group works through the
criteria phase, differentiating between the musts and the
wants of a solution.
• Mixed Scanning—a decisionmaking strategy that
combines examining a problem comprehensively (the
rational approach) and part by part (the incremental
approach).
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 6
Glossary
• Reflective Thinking Process—a pattern for small
group problem solving that includes six components:
1. What is the problem?
2. What are its causes and limits?
3. What are the criteria for an acceptable solution?
4. What are the available solutions?
5. What is the best solution?
6. How can it be implemented?
• Tacit Bargaining—bargaining in which
communication is incomplete or impossible.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 7
Case Study
General Motors
1. What do you think are the main problems at GM?
2. What would you do if you were CEO of GM?
3. How does this case relate to your organization?
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 8
Improving Creativity
• Creativity can be divided into two phases of
thinking.
– Divergent thinking
– Convergent thinking
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 9
Improving Creativity
• Gibson and Hodgetts (1986) identify four
different kinds of creativity that may be
applied to group problem solving.
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McGrawHill
Innovation
Synthesis
Extension
Duplication
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 10
Improving Creativity
• Left and RightBrain Functions
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 11
Improving Creativity—Practical Tips
The following are some mental flexibility exercises
that should help you improve your creativity.
These are adapted from Lawrence Katz and
Manning Rubin (1999).
1. Use your nondominant hand for brushing teeth, writing,
using the remote.
2. Vary your usual routine.
3. Take a different way to work or class.
4. Seek out social stimulation, especially with people you
don’t already know.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 12
Improving Creativity—Practical Tips
• The following . . . (continued)
5. Put your watch on the other wrist.
6. Turn pictures on your desk upside down.
7. Randomly move your wastebaskets, stapler, penholder,
etc.
8. Shop at different stores.
9. Vary your usual route through the grocery store.
10. Look at magazines written for the opposite sex.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 13
Reflective Thinking Process
• The reflective thinking sequence first
proposed by John Dewey (1910) emphasizes
the leftbrain functions.
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McGrawHill
Define problem.
Analyze causes.
Identify criteria.
Generate solutions.
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 14
The Kepner-Tregoe Approach
• A variation of the reflective thinking
sequence has been proposed (Kepner and
Tregoe, 1992).
– The most important contribution seems to be the
way in which a group works through the criteria
phase.
• There are certain required elements and other desired
element to any solution, called musts and wants by
Kepner and Tregoe.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 15
The Kepner-Tregoe Approach
• SSC Ratings for Competing States
McGrawHill
Source: From Mike Magner. “Geology Blamed for State’s Loss of Atom
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Smasher,” Ann Arbor News, 11 November 1988, pp. A1, A4.
Slide 16
The Fishbone Technique
• The fishbone technique is so called because
its outline resembles the skeleton of a fish.
– It helps to identify graphically the underlying
causes of a problem.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 17
Brainstorming
The Fishbone Technique
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 18
Brainstorming—Practical Tips
One way to get at the root causes of problems is to
ask “why” five times. For example, some team
members don’t follow through on a team’s
decision (Carr, 1996, p. 66).
– Why? Because team members weren’t really committed
to the decision in the first place.
– Why? Because the team didn’t spend enough time
exploring the problems in implementing the solution.
– Why? Because it didn’t want to spend the time.
– Why? Because it didn’t think the problem was that
important.
– Why? Because no one thought through the team’s
mission clearly when it was formed.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 19
Brainstorming
• Brainstorming emphasizes rightbrain
activity.
– Rules for brainstorming:
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McGrawHill
Put judgment and evaluation aside temporarily.
Turn imagination loose, and start offering the results.
Think of as many ideas as you can.
Seek combination and improvement.
Record all ideas in full view.
Evaluate at a later session.
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 20
Brainstorming—Practical Tips
1. While brainstorming, take 3 x 5 index cards and have
each member of the team follow this sequence: Say it,
write it, toss it (on the table).
2. Categorize ideas.
3. Classify.
4. Prioritize.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 21
Six Thinking Hats
• Six thinking hats is an intuitive way to keep
your thoughts focused while problem
solving.
– White hat—emotionally neutral.
– Red hat—emotions, gut instincts, intuition, and
feelings.
– Black hat—represents careful and analytical
thinking.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 22
Six Thinking Hats
• Six thinking hats . . . (continued)
– Yellow hat—represents sunny, optimistic, and
positive thinking.
– Green hat—represents creativity, new ideas,
alternatives, and possibilities.
– Blue hat—represents coordination, control, and
the discipline to know when to use which hat.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 23
Incrementalism
• Braybrooke and Lindblom (1963) argue that
numerous decisions concerning
governmental policies are arrived at
partially as a result of adapting to political
pressure rather than as a result of rational
analysis.
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 24
Incrementalism
• The term incrementalism refers to the
process of making decisions that result in
change.
– Quadrant 1—High understanding/large change
– Quadrant 2—High understanding/incremental
change
– Quadrant 3—Low understanding/incremental
change
– Quadrant 4—Low understanding/large change
McGrawHill
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Slide 25
Incrementation
• Model of DecisionMaking
McGrawHill
Source: Reprinted with permission of the Free Press, a Division of Macmillan, Inc., from David Braybrooke and Charles
© 2004 The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
C. Lindbloom. A Strategy of Decision, copyright © 1963 by The Free Press of Glencoe.