Ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu đến nông nghiệp, nuôi trồng và đánh bắt thủy hải sản của cộng đồng ven biển

THU'C TIEN - KINH NGHIEM

vAnh hudng cua bien doi khi hau flen nong
nghiep, nuoi trdng va danh bat thuy hai san
cua cong dong ven bien
• ThS NGUYEN THj T H O Y MAI

Hoc vien Bao chi va Tuyen truyin
Bien ddi kM hau da anh hudng nghiem trpng den ddi sdng kinh te - xd hpi va con ngudi cua
nhieu qudc gia tren the gidi. Viet Nam Id mpt trong nhimg qudc gia chiu anh hudng nang ne
nhdt tren tat ca mpi mat. Trong bai viet ndy, tac gia di sdu gidi thieu ve nhihig anh hudng eua
bien ddi kM hdu ddi vdi ndng nghiep, nudi trdng va danh bat thuy hai san ciia edng ddng ven
bien. Tir do, ddt ra van de ve gidi phdp de phat trien nganh nay theo hudng ben virng de giam
nhe nhirng thiet hai va cd khd ndng thich ung tdt vdi bien ddi khi hdu.

1. Tinh hinh bien ddi khi hdu cua Met Nam
Hien nay, thudt ngii "bien ddi kM hdu" khdng cdn
xa la ddi vdi bat eu ai tren toan the gidi ciing nhu d Viet
Nam. Theo IPCC (2007) va Bd Tdi nguyen Mdi ttudng
(2009), Men doi kM hdu Id sy ndng ISn todn cdu vd myc
nudc bien dang, nguyen nhdn chu yeu do edc loai kM
nhd ldnh dupe phdt thaittrboat ddng ciia con ngudi.
Bilu Men cua Men ddi kM hdu la nMet dp tang, thay
ddi lupng mua, myc nudc bien ddng, xdm lan man vd
cac hinh thai thdi tiet cue doan nhu lu lut va ban han.
Bien ddi kM hdu vd nhirng dnh hudng cua nd ddi vdi
eon ngudi ngdy cang dupc gM nhdn mot each ro net
tren mpi mat, dae biet ddi vdi kmh te, xd hdi vd mdi
tiudng. Tdc gid Trdn Thp Dat va Vu TM Hoai Thu
(2012) cho rdng: Bien ddi khi hdu cd dnh hudng Idn
den suphdt tnen kinh te - xd hdi cda tdt cd cdc qudc

gia vd mgi nd luc phdt trien ciia con ngudi dang cd
nguy ca bi huy hogi bdi bien ddi khi hgu "'.
Viet Nam ndm ttong khu vyc nMet ddi gid mua,
hdng nam phdi chiu nMlu hinh thai tiidi tiet khac
ngMet vd nhiing con bao nMet ddi, ap thdp nMet ddi
va bao biln. Cae Men tupngtiiientai xdyraquanh nam
da anh hudng khdng nhd tdi Mnh te, xa hdi vd mdi

So thdng 3-2016

tnrong.
Theo ngMen cuu cua cdc nhd kM tupng hpc, kM
hdu Viet Nam da ed nhvmg biln ddi rd ret. Cu the, tiieo
nhu FAO (2011), Bp Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng
(2012), Phan Van Tdn vaNgd Diic Thdnh (2013):
trong 50 ndm qua nhiet do tnmg binh ndm tdng 0.5"C
tren phgm vi cd nudc, lugng mua gidm dphia Bdc vd
tdng dphia Nam lanh ihd. Du bdo den cudi the kyXXl,
nhiet do d Viet Nam tdngtiiAngbinh 2.3 "C vd lugng
mua se tdng 5% so vdi giai dogn 1890 -1999, muc
nudc bien ddng trung binh todn ddi ven bien Viet Nam
tir57-73cm^K
Ben canh dd, lupng phdt thdi kM nha kinh tir ede
hoat ddng giao thdng, cdng nghiep, sir dung ndng
lupng,... dang gdp phan ldm tdng them sy ndng len
todn cdu vd nudc biln dang. LTdctinhlupng phdt tbdi
cua Viet Nam dat 120,8 trieu tdn va vdi tinh hmh phdt
tiien kinh te Men nay, lupng phattiidinay se cdn tang
manhttx)ngthai gian tdi.
2. Tdc dgng cua bien doi khi hgu doi vdi ndng

nghiep vd nuoi trdng ddnh bdt thuy sdn cgng ddng
ven biin

Ly lu^n chfnh tri & Thuyen thong

79


THLfC TIEN - KINH NGHIEM
anh hudng tdi 12% dientichvd 20% ddn sd Viet Nam,
lam ngap khoang tir 0,3 den 0,5 tneu ha tai i^ng bSug
sdng Hdng va 1,5 - 2 ttieu ha tai dong bang sdng Cim
Long va hang tram ngan ha ven Men mien Trung. Ubc
tinh \^et Nam se mat di khoang 2 ttieu ha ddt ti'dng
lua ttong tdng sd khoang hon 4 ttieu ha Men nay, de
dpa nghiemttpngden an ninh luong thuc qudc gia va
anh hudng den hdng chucttieungudi dan'^. Ciing theo
tdc gia, tdntiiatdo tMen tai cua ndng ngMep va nong
tiidn Viet Nam ttr nam 1991 den nam 2009 da len toi
khoang 2,7 ty USD. Theo bdo cao tdng hop cdng tac
cM dao ling phd vdi bdo sd 8 ngdy 31.10.2012 cua Ban
CM dao PCLB TW, tongtiiiethai do bdo sd 8 gay ra
ddi vdi nganh ndng ngMep udctinhtren 7.000 Xy dong
(gdm ca thuy san),frongdd 26.581 ha lua miia, 67.290
hacdyvuDdng, 551.319congiasuc,giacdmbich8t
Theo kieh ban Bien ddi kM hau dupe Bd Tdi nguj:^'
Cdng ddng ven bien Id nhiing ddi tupng ehiu dnh
va Mdi trudng cap nhdt ndm 2011, neu muc nudc bien
hudng nMeu nhat do bien ddi kM hdu khdng cM vi vi
dang lni,secdkhoang39% dientichddng bang song

tti dia ly, ma cdn vi cdc hoat ddng kinh tl nhdm dam
Cim Long, tren 10% dien tich vung ddng bdng sdng
bdo cupc sdng qua dya vdo tMen nMen. Hoat ddng
Hdng vd Qudng Ninh, vdtien2,5% dientiehtiiupecac
ndng ngMep va danh bat thuy san dupc coi Id mang
tinh ven bien mien Trung cd nguy co bi n g ^ '*'.
lai ngudn thu nhap chinh cua ngudi ddn ven bien. Tuy
nMen nhimg hoat dpng Mnh te nay lai chiu dnh hudng
Bien ddi kM hdu cdn gdy dnh hudng ve ca sd ha
vd eung Idnttrbiln ddng eua ty nMen.
tdng vattiangtitiltbi phuc vu ndng ngMep. Theo UNJP
(2011), Selvaraju va cpng sy (2006), Dang Thi Hoa
Bdi vdi linh VMC ndng nghiep:
Ndng ngMep ddng vaifrdquan trpngfrongsy phat va Quyin Dmh Hd (2014), bien ddi kM hdu con B
trien kinh te-xa hpi dae biet ddi vdi mdt nudc ndng nguyen nhan gay anh hudng din su tangttudngeac
ngMep nhu Viet Nam. Trong ndng ngMep, san xuat loai hoa mdu bang viec nit ngan thdi gian tang tmimg
Ilia gao ddng vai frd quan trongfrongan ninh luong va gidm nang sudt cayttdng*'^.NgMen cuu cua FAO
thuc, gidl quyet viec ldm cho khu vyc ndng thdn va (2011) chotiidykM nMet do tang them VC, nd se lam
xudt khdu. Theo Trdn Thp Dat va Vii Thi Hodi Thu chdm qua trinh phdtttieneua lua tir 5 den 8 ngay*^, va
(2012): da sd cdc hd gia dinh ven bien Viet Nam sdng ddi vdi dau va khoai tdy Id 3 den 5 ngdy. NMet dp tang
chit yeu dua vdo ndng nghiep trong dd trdng lua nudccao va sy thay ddi lupng mua eiing Id nguyen nhan
gay gia tang cdc lodi sinh vdt gdy hai cho cdy tidog
dugc coi Id hogt ddng chu yeu ^\
Nudc bien dang ciing eac hinh tinic thdi ttet cyc nhu sdu cudn la, ddy nau, sdu budm, bp cdnh cimg
ndm,...
Ben canh dd, nhiing thay ddi ve dieu Men thoi
doan nhu ban ban, lu lut Hentiepxdyragdy khd khan
cho ngdnh ndng ngMep. Amita Bhaduri (2013) va tiet do bien ddi kM hdu ciing gdp phan lam gia tai^
Dmh Vii Thanh (2013) cho rdng, nMet dp tang len cac qudtiinhxdi mdn, sat Id, ngap iing, ngap rrm,,".
kMen cho lupng nudc hoc hai eiing tang cao, ddn din kMen cho dientichddt ndng ngMep ngdy cdng Ihu h ^

lupng nudc tudi heu bi tiueu hyt ngMem ttpng; ban Hdu qua Id ndng sudt va san lupng bi gidm siit. UNJP
niia, myc nudc bien dang cao ciing ldm tang cdc vimg (2011) du bdo san luang liia vu ddng xudn ciia khu
ddt bi ngap man ddn tditinhtrang man hda nudc phyc vyc Nam Trung Bp se gidm 10% vdo nam 2020 4
vy ndng ngMep cdc vimg ven bien''". Theo Dmh Vii gidm 8% vao nam 2070, cdn khu vyc ddng bdng sdng
Thanh (2013), neu nudc Men dang len lm cd khd nang Hong se gidm la 12,5% va 16,5 %'''.

Theo danh gia cua nMeu nha ngMen cuu Bmgxin
Yu(2010),FAO (2011),TidnE)ucVien(2011),...Viet
Nam la mdt frong sd cae nudc chiu dnh hudng nang
ne cua bien ddi kM hdu. Vdi ban 300 nghm km bd
Men, cac vung ven bien la khu vyc cd nMeutiemnang
phat trien, nhung ciing Id khu vyc chiu nMeu anh
hudng vd bien dpngtitnhung tac ddng manh nhat cua
tu nMen vd hanh ddng eua con ngudi. Theo Tran Thp
Dat va Vu Thi Hoai Thu (2012), ngay ca kM khdng cd
sy tac dpng bdi sy Men ddi kM hdu khu vuc ndy da
cMu nMlu ap lye. Han niia, day ciing la khu vyc tap
trung dan cu, nen ldnh te chu yeu sir dung ngudn lyc
tiuen nMen, ttong kM dd cac ngudn Iuc ndy dang bi
suy thoai. Cho nen dan cu ven bien la nhdm chiu nMeu
ton thuong nhdt la ddi vdi nhung nudc dang phdt ttien
vdi ca sd ha tang cdn ngheo nan nhu nudc ta,

Ly luSn chinh Iri & Tk>uyen thdng

S6'thdng 3'20l6_


THU'C TliN - KINH NGHlEM
Ddi vdi vdt nudi. Men ddi kM hau keo theo la cdc

Men tupng tiidi tiet cue doan ciing gay nMlu tdn tiidt,
nhu lam hdng cd sd khu nudi, vdt nudi bi chet hoac
chdm Idn. Tac gid Bill Thi Kim Dung (2013) cho rdng:
bien ddi khi hgu dang de dga mdi tnrdng sdng. de dga
den nguon cung cdp thirc dn vd nudc uong cho chdn
nudi, gidm sice de khdng vd tdng ngwy ca bung phdt
cdc dich benh ""'. Theo bao cdo eua Cue Chan nudi
tiong dot ret vao nam 2011, dd cd han 28.690 gia siie
bi ehet ret;ttiDngdd 96% la be nghe non va tim, bd
gia; sd edn lai Id cdc gia sue khac. l/dc tinh tMet hai
ddi vdi dan vat nudi do ret dam, ret hai Id hem 130 ty
ddng, chua tinh den cdng lao dpng, vat tu va sue san
xudt cua vat nudi giam siit. Theo thdng ke so bp cua
Cyc chdn nudi, sd gia sue bi chet do ret dam, ret hai
len tdi 25.260 con frong nam 2012 "". Vdi tinh Mnh
bien ddi kM hdu nhu Men nay, du bao ttong nhirng
nam tdi, nhiing con sd tren cdn gia tang gdp nMeu lan.
Bien ddi khi hdu vd nudi trdng. ddnh bat thuy sdn
Cimg vdi ndng ngMep, nudi trdng va danh bat thuy
san ddng vai ttd quan ttpng trong viec ddm bdo smh
ke cua ngudi dan ven biln. UNFCCC COP 15 (2009)
udctinhrang: ed hon 500 trieu ngudi sdng d cae nudc
dang phdt trien mdt cdch truetiepbode gidntiepsdng
phu thudc vao viec danh bat va nudi trdngtiiiiysan *'^'.
O Viet Nam ddy Id mpt ngdnh ddng vai ttd bet site
quan trpng ddi vdi nen Mnh tl ddt nudc. Trong nhiing
nam qua, san lupng thuy sdn cua Viet Nam tdng len
khdng ngimg dd gdp phan quan ttpng trong viec gdp
phdn xoa ddi gidm ngheo, cung cdp dinh dudng va
nang cao thu nhap cho nhdn dan, vdttingbudc ndng

eao Mm ngach xudt khau eiia ddt nudc. Tuy nMen,
ddnh bdt va nudi trdng tiiuy san la ngdnh nghe chiu
dnh hudng Idn tti sy biln ddi tiidi tilt, Trong dd, nMet
dp ddng vai ttd quan trpng cho qua trinh sinh tiirdng
va phdt trien eiia sinh vat ndi chung va cac loai thuy
sdn ndi rieng.
Worldfish Center (2007) cho rdng, nMet dp tang
gdy anh hudng den qua Irinh sinh sdng ciia suih vdt,
ngudn thuy hai san bi phdn tan, cac loai ca can nMet
ddi cd gid Oi Mnh tl cao bi giam di hode mdt hdn. NMet
dp tang ddn ttong nhimg tii^ men gdn day cung vdi
no la Men tupng ndng ndng kMen nMet dp trong nudc
tang len anh budng tdi sue chiu dyng ciia cac lodi sinh

Sd'thang 3-2016

vdt,frongdd cd cac Ioai nudi, Su tang nM8t dd cd the
Iam suy giam sdn lupng tiiuy sdn ttong cac ao hd. Vi
dy, nMet dp phu hpp de tdm tang trudng la tir 25 32°C, nlu nMet dp thdp hon 25°C hoac cao ban 32*C
se ldm ehdm qua trinh tangttirdngeua loai nay. NMeu
ngMen cuu cho thay rang kM nMet dp tang len Iam cho
hdm lupng oxi ttong nudc trong gidm manh vdo ban
dem, do sytieuthy qud miic ciia cdc lodi thyc vdt thuy
sinh, hodc qud trinh phdn hpp chdt hiru ca. Sy suy
giam ham lupng oxi lam dnh hudng den sy sinh
tmong va phat trien cua loai nudi, tdm ed the bi chet
bode chdm Idn. Dieu ndy de nhdn thdy qua hien tupng
Men tupng phu dudng cua cac ao nudi; ca ndi ddu vao
budi sangfrongcae ao nudi; thiiy trieu dd va tdo chet
hang boat d cdc vimg ven Men.

Them vao dd, sy thay ddi nhiet dp eung la dieu
Men ly tudng xudt Men cdc loai benh dieh ddi vdi cdc
gidng nudi ttdng. Bdi kM nMet dp tang cao se kMen
sue khde ciia con gidng eiing nhu mdi tmdng nude frd
nen xau di vd dd ehinh Id dieu Men de cdc sinh vdt cd
hai phat trien. Trong nhiing nam gdn day, cimg vdi su
suy thodi ciia mdi tmdng vd bien ddi khi hdu kM8n
nMeu dich benh biing phdt gayraMen tupng tdm ehet
tren dim rdng d nMeu tinh thanh kMen cho ngudi nudi
trdng thily sdn lam vdotinhcdnh khd khan. Theo thdng
ke nam 2011 cho thdy, tdm nude Ip bi dich benh tten
dien rpng, gay tMet hai khoang tren 97.000 ba t ^ trung
nMlu d Bac Ueu va Sdc Trang. Nam 2012, khoang
100,776 ha, nam 2013 Id 68.099 ha tdm nudc Ip bi
benh tren toan qude. Dau nam 2012, benh siia d tdm
hiim ldm ngudi nudi mat hdng tram ti ddng, Ndm
2011, ngao nudi d tai cac tinh Tien Giang, Ben Tre,
Bac Lieu bi chet hang loat vdi tdng dien tich tMet hai
2.980 ha, gia tri tMet hai khoang 648 ty ddng. Dau
thdng 8 ndm 2014, cd 1.096 ha ngao chet d Thai Binh.
Ca nudi long tren Men ciing thudng gap dich benh gdy
chit rai rdc vd thudng chit hang loat d Qudng Ninh,
Hai Phdng, Thira TM8n Hue, Khanh Hod vd Bd Ria Vimg Tdu <'^'.
Myc nudc Men ddng cao dnh hudng tdi he sinh
tbdi ven biln gay dnh hudng tdi ngudntiiucan va noi
cu tni cho edc loai ca ty nMen. Ngoai ra, sy tan pha
cua bdo vd dp tiidp nhiet ddi cdn anh hudng den he
sinh thdi cung nhu co sd ha tdng cua vung nudi. Bdo

Ly luSn c h i n h tri & IVuy^n Chdng

THLTC TliN - KINH NGHIEM
vd ^ thdp nMet ddi cudng dp manh va lupng mua Idn
lam cho ndng dp mudi gidm di ttong mpt tiidi gian
ngan ddn din sinh vdt nudc Ip vd ven bd hi chet hang
loat, gay tMet hai vl kinh tl cho cdng ddng cu ddn
sdng chu ylu dua vdo boat ddng nudifrdngthuy sdn.
Bien ddi kM hdu keo tiieo Id eac Men Mpngtiiditiet
bdttiiudngnhu lanh, ndng ndng, bao lii dnh hudng tiuc
tiep tdi ngudi nudi frdng. Cd nhiing dpt ret dam ret
hai, dde Met cdc nam 2001,2003,2006 vd nhdt Id dpt
ret ndm 2008 da kMen hang van dam nudi trong thuy
sdn va cac trai san xudt gidng bitiuethai hdng ngdn ty
ddng. Sy Men dpng bat thuong eua nMet dp nudc Men
dan din suytiioaicdc h$ sinh thai ven bien, lam gidm
ngudn lpi thuy san, ttilu cudng, lii, lut... ciing lam tiiay
ddi ndng dp man, gay d nMem ngudn nudc ddn den
benh dich cho tdm nudi, phd vo ao, dam nudi, Iam thdt
thoat thiiy san nudifrdng.Cactt:gnbao lut ndm 2002,
can bao sd 5 vd sd 7 nam 2005 Iam hau bet cae ddm
ngodi de den ky thu ho^ich bi mat tt^g. Cac dot trieu
ddng cuoi ndm 2005, 2006, 2008 ldm hdngti-dmha
ddm nuditiiiiysan ven sdng mattiiuhoach.

tten biln, dac biet can bao sd 1 (Chanchu) gdytiiiethai
rdt Idn cho ngu dan khai thac viing biln xa bd. Ngoii
ra,flupthai vl ngudi va vdt chdt ddi vdi c^ng ding ngu
ddn ven bien ciing la rdt dang k& kM can bao sd 9 (Durian) dd bp vao bd.
Ket lugn:

Cd tiie ndi. Men ddi kM hdu vd nhimg anh huong
tilm tang cua nd ddi vdi mdi ttudng vd cdc he thong
kinh tl xd hdi da va dang trd thdnh mdi quan tam Ion
cua nhdn loai nhdt Id nhung thap ky gan ddy Tai Viet
Nam, hien chua cd cdc ngMen cuu ddy dii ve tdc dpng
cua bien ddi kM hdu ddi vdi ndng ngM?p va khai thac
thiiy san. Tuy nMen, vdi nhiing nguy co vdtiiachtbiic
dang tiem an doi vdi nhirng Imh vuc nhay cdm vcfl
bien ddi kM hdu ndy cd the se rdt Idn. Do vdy, vSn dS
dat ra la Nhd nude nen ddu M vd huy dpng su tham
gia eua cdc nhd khoa hpc vd cdng ddng nhdm nghien
ciiu nhirng tac ddng cu the eiing nhu duaranhirng giai
phap Men qud nhdt de phdt trien ngdnh ndng nghiep
va nudittdng,^ n h bdt thuy san theo hudng bin vung
de gidm nhe nhiing tMet hai vd cd khd nang tMch iing
tdt vdi bien ddi kM hdu.n

Ddi vdi ngudi ddn ldm nghe ddnh bat, WiMams
and Rota (2014) nhdn dinh: san lupng danh bdt phu
thupc vao site khde va ehiie nang cua he smh thdi bien
(1), (3) Tran Tho Dat va Vii Thi Hoai Thu,fiien^01 Afti'ft^a
nhu vung ddnh bdt cd ddi dao hay khdng phu tiiudc vd smh ki ven bien. Nxb Giao thong Vgn tdi, H,20n,
vao mdi ttudng sinh sdng, ngudn cung cdp thiic an va
(2) FAO, Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Vietmditiirdngsinh sdn ciia cdc loai'''''. Bien ddi kM hdu Ham.H,201I.
(4) Amita Bhaduri, Impact ofclimate change on life and
cung vdi sy gia tang ve nMet dp vd suy thodi mdi
livelihood ofDalits,ln'£^20l3
tnrdng bien ddng ngMa vdi viec sy sdng va smh sdi
(5), (6) Dinh Vu Thanh, Tdc dong vd gidi phdp ung pho vdi
eua cac loai bi suy gidm, eung Id nguyen nhdn ddn ten bien ddi khi hgu cua ngdnh Nong nghiep - Phdt trien nong ihdn,

sy Myet chiing cac lodi. Nhiing dieu nay dnh hudng Bp Nong nghiep va PTNT, 2013
(7), (9) UNJP, Strengthening capacities to enhance coordiden ngudn ddnh bdt vd gidm san lupng danh bdt
Them vao dd, bien ddi kM hdu eiing mat dp xudt nated and integrated diasler nsk reduction actions and adi^lation to climate change in agriculture in the northen moulain
Men eac con bao ngdy cdng nMlu dd dnh hudng Idn regions of Vietnam, H.20I1.
tdi cu dan tryctieplam nghl ddnh bit ven biln bdi da
(8) FAO, Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Vietsd hp la nhiing ngudi ngheottongxd hpi, cdng cu ddnh nam, H,2011,
(10), (\\)Bui'ThiKmi'Dmig, Biin dSi khi hgu vd nhiing
bdt thd so kM gap bao Idn dl bi tMet hai ca vl ngudi va
tai saa Trong nhiing t h ^ ky qua, sd lupng cac con bdo thdch Ihuc doi v&i ngdnh chdn nuoi. Tap san Khoa hpc va Giao
due so 2 , H. 2013: Tr. 10-106
anh hudng den Viet Nam khdng cM cd xu hudng tang
(12} UNFCCC COP 15, Fisheries and aquaculture in a
len ma mirc dp dnh hudng ngay cang nMlu. Cy thl, changing climate, Copeiihagen.2009.
nam 2006,10 con bao vdi cudng dp manh, cae dpt gid
(13) B§ Nong nghiep va Phat liien nong thon, Dif dn Quan
mita Ddng Bac keo ddi vd cae Menttrpngtiiditiltbat Irdc moi trudng phuc vu nuoi trdng thdy sdn, H.2014
(14) Wilhams, L. and A Rota, Impact of climate change on
tiiudng khae da tac ddng ddng kl din boat ddng tiiuy
fisheries and aquaculture in the developing world and oppotmasdn vd gdyratiiiethai cho ngudi va tdu ca boat dpng tiesfor adaptation, Italy. 2014

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Ly luan chinh tri & IVuy^'n thdng

Sd'thang 3-2016