Nhận định xu thế mùa mưa, bão, lũ năm 2015 và dự báo, cảnh báo thiên tai

Thuc tieh - Kinh nghiSm

^INhan djnh xu the mua mua, bao, lu nam 2015
va dU bao, canh bao thien tai
O

HOANG DLTC C I / O N G

Trung tdm Dff bdo Khi tffdng thOy vin Trung ffdng
theo eDa mua khd (tQ thang 59/2015), lopng ddng ehly Iren cdc
sdng d Trung Bd, Tdy Nguyen tidp
Bao vi dp thip nhiet ddi:
tye thieu hut so vdi TBNN tU 30 Trong dilu kien EI Nino (do bdo
60%, cd ndi hut hdn, rieng cac
d eudng dp yeu dd'n Irung binh
tinh d Nam Trung Bp thieu hiJt tU
nhung ed I h l keo dai den cudi
60 - 95%. d ha luu nhieu sdng se
ndm 2015), du bao ndm 2015 se
xual hien myc node thdp nhat
d khoang 9 edn bdo, ATND hoat
trong chuoi sd lidu quan trae eung
ddng trdn Biln Ddng (TBNN
thdi ky, hoac thap nhdl lich sQ,
khoang 12 edn) vd khoing 3-4
con bdo, ATNO s§ Inh hudng tnie
Tinh trang khd han, thieu node,
tiep den ddt lien nudc la {TBNN la
ThOy vdn Bic Bd: Lu lilu xdm nhdp mdn sau vdo vDng cQa
5-6 con).
man xuat hien dDng thdi ky va Idn sdng ttep tue xay ra tren didn rdng

Nhidt dd, ning ndng: TQ hon ndm 2014. Khu vyc Bae Bp d edc tinh Trung Bd vd keo ddi tdi
thdng 5 din thdng 10/2015: Nin ed kha ndng xay ra 2 - 3 dpt 10 ldn. thdng giQa 9/2015. Han hdn tai
nhiet dp trdn pham vi todn qud'c Oinh lu ndm se xud't hien theo quy mdt sd huydn thudc d c ilnh Nam
phi bidn eao hdn TBNN IQ ludt chung (khoing eudi thdng 7 Trung Bd d t h i d mQc khde lidt d
khoing 0,5-1,0*^0, ridng edc ddn ddu thdng 8/2015) va tuong khu vye Tdy Nguyen da d moa
thdng 7, 8 vd 9/2015 nhiet dp d duong dinh lu ndm 2014: trdn d c chuyln mua, nhung lopng khdng
khu vuc Nam Trung Bd, Tdy sdng chfnh d thupng luu he Ihdng ddng k l , vi vay linh trang khd han
Nguyen va Nam Bd dao dgng d sdng Hdng, sdng Hoang Long va vln xay ra cue bd va keo ddi dd'n
mQc xdp xi TBNN. Nang ndng d thupng luu sdng Thai Binh d mQc thdng 5/2015.
Ble Bd va Trung Bd se xuit hidn BD2-B03, ha luu sdng Hdng tai
Mua lu ndm 2015 trdn d c
nhieu hon nhung ft ed kha ndng Hd Ndi dudi mQc BDI, ha luu sdng d khu vyc Trung Bd va Tdy
sdng Thdi Binh tai Pha Lai tren
keo ddi nhu nam 2014.
Nguyen cd kha ndng xual hidn
mQc BDI. Trdn mpt sd sdng sudi
mupn hon so vdi TBNN. Dinh IQ
Lffdng mt/a, mua Idn: Mua
nhd thudc mien nDi phfa Bae ed
ndm 2015 tren hau hit eac sdng
mUa d Ble Bp ed kha ndng xiy ra
Ihl xud't hien dinh lu vopl mQc
phD hpp qUy ludt hdng nam, lupng
deu eao hon dinh lu ndm 2014 va
603. Lu quel, sat Id ddt cd kha
mua ede thdng nQa ddu mDa moa
ed kha ndng nhO sau: Cde sdng d
ndng xudt hien nhilu hOn so vdi
(tQ thang 5-7/2015) d mOc xd'p xi
Bic Trung Bd d mQc BDI - BD2

ndm 2014. Cac vDng ed nguy co
TBNN, cdd Ihang cudi mua (IQ
eao ve Iu quel va sat Id dd't Id ede vd xap xl TBNN, cde sdng tU
thdng 8-10/2015) d mQc thdp hon
linh Lai Chdu, Dien Bien, Son La, Quing Binh de'n Binh Thuan vd
TBNN. Cdc dpi mua Idn d Bae Bd
Ldo Cai, Ydn Bai, Hd Giang, khu vye Tay Nguyen d mQc BD2
se tdp Irung IQ thdng 6 den thing
- BD3, cd ndi cao hdn B03 va d
Tuyen Quang, Ble Can.
8/2015. Do Inh hudng cDa hidn
mQc TBNN. Thdi gian xuat hien
tupng El Nino, mDa mua d Tdy
ThOy vdn Trung B6, Tay dinh lu cao nhat ndm Irdn cac
Nguydn, Nam Bd vd Binh Thudn Nguydn: Trong nhung Ihdng ttep gdng chfnh d Thanh Hda, Binh

Nhan djnh xu the thdi tiet
thuy vdn r1dm2015

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ed kha ndng den mudn hOn so vdi
TBNN (IQc trung tuan thdng 5).
LQpng mua d khu vye Nam Bp,
Tdy Nguyen va Binh Thudn d e
thdng 5, 6 va 10/2015 phd bid'n
thd'p hon TBNN. Cae thdng 7, 8
vd 9/2015 ed lUpng mife dao dpng
d mQc xd'p xi TBNN. MDa mife d
Tay Nguyen, Nam Bp va Binh

Thudn ed khi ndng se kel thUe
sdm hon so vdi binh thQdng.

TdMQuydn vd Mdi trudng 1 KH-Thing 6/2015


Thudn vdo Ihdng 8 va 9/2015,
tren cdc sdng IQ Nghd An den
Quang Binh vd Tdy Nguyen vdo
thdng 9 va 10/2015. tt^n cae
sdng IQ Quang Tri den Ninh
Thudn vao thang 10 va 11/2015.
Lu ldn, lu quel, sal Id dal tren mpi
sd sdng sudi nhd vung nut cac
tinh Trung Bd vd Tdy Nguyen cd
khi nang xual hien nhieu hon so
vdi ndm 2014.

vQa dal tQ 73% Ird len; thuy vdn
han ngin dat IQ 80% trd len; thuy
vdn han vQa dat IQ 75% trd len;
khf lopng han ddi (thdng) dat tQ
65% Ird ldn; thuy vdn han ddi
(thdng) dat IQ65% trd ldn. Nganh
KTTV Iheo ddi ehdi che tinh hinh
thdi ttel, Ihuy vdn Iren pham vi ca
node; eanh bao, dy bao kip thdi
edc hidn lopng thdi tidt, thuy vdn
nguy hilm nhu bao, ATNO, mua
ThOy vin Nam Bd: Mye node Idn, lu Idn, 10 quet.. phuc vu hieu

ha lou sdng Ci!fu Long va sdng qui PCTT; dy bao KTTV blln.
Ddng Nai tiep lue chju anh hudng Tiep luc thyc hien cu Ihl hda ban
manh eDa thDy tridu. Mue nude tin dy bdo thdl till nguy hilm ddn
eao nhat thdng tai Tan Chdu va IQng dja phupng lai d c Ddi KTTV
Chdu Ode d mQc cao hon TBNN khu vyc, Ddi KTTV tinh. TQng
cDng ky tQ 0,1 - 0,2 m. Tinh hinh bude d i tiln ndi dung vd hinh
xam nhdp mdn tidp lue lan sdu d thife cde ban ttn dy bdo KTTV,
vDng cife sdng, npi dong d c sdng nhat Id cdc ban tin dy bdo bao,
Nam Bd vd dp mdn 4g/l cd t h i ATND, lu nham dap ifng nhu d u
xam nhap sdu khoang 40 - 60 km, ngdy d n g cao cDa nhdn ddn,
d thdi ky sdu tdi 70 km va keo dai d n g ddng; tdng eudng du bao
den thdng 5/2015. Dinh lu eao dilm cho edc khu vye Irpng dilm
nhdl ndm 2015 tren sdng Tien tai d nguy cd xuat hien Ihien tai
Tan Chdu va sdng Hdu tai Chdu KTTV. Thodng xuydn id chQc hdi
Dde d khi ndng d mQc BD2, thao tryc tuyen, mdi eac chuydn
thd'p hon TBNN va c6 kha ndng gia tham gia Ihao Iuan khi ed tinh
xual hidn vdo dau thang 10/2015. hudng thdi till nguy hilm. Hodn
thdnh phQOng dn do bdo phye vu
Khi tuang thdy van biin: Thdi ifng phd vdi sieu bao, bao manh
till tren biln, vDng ven bd ed kha tren ede khu vyc Ble Bd, Tmng
ndng dien bien phQc tap hon so Bd vd Nam Bp. Tdng cudng kilm
vdi ndm 2014. Bdo do bp vdo tra, gidm sat edng tdc thyc hien
vDng ven bd van d nguy cd gay d c Quy trinh, Quy djnh, Quy che
ngdp lut vd xdi Id bd biln. Ngodi cDa Chi'nh phD, cDa Bd TN&MT,
ra, d c dpi gid mDa manh kel hpp Tmng ldm KTTV qude gia ban
vdi trieu cudng, sdng ldn se liep hdnh v l edng lac dy bdo, bao
tuc Id nguy eo gdy ngdp lut tai d e gdm d cae quy djnh ve d p dd rDi
khu vtic trijng ven bd vd cQa ro thien tai, ve dy bdo, d n h bao
sdng, ddc biet Id vdo thdi ky eudi vd truyin ttn Ihien lai, ve quy trinh
ndm 2015.

vdn hdnh lien hd chQa. Hodn
Nhiem vu trong tam trong thdnh cdng lae duy tu, bao dudng,
dy bdo, c i n h bao thien tai sQa chQa cdng trinh do dae va try
sd Iam vide, cdc cdng trinh phu
ndm 2015
Chi tidu chat lopng dy bdo edn cDa cac tram KTTV, eae Ddi
KTTV eu Ihl ndm 2015 dupc dat KTTV Ilnh, chuin bj dD cac Ihiel
ra nhu sau: Khi lUpng han ngan bj, vdi lu thiet yeu de dam bao an
dat IQ 81% trd ldn; khf tupng han

lodn trong mDa mua, bao, Iu. Cac
tram KTTV hoan thdnh viec xay
dyng vd hodn thien phuong an
quan trae khi xiy ra tinh hudng d
bdo, ATND, mOa Idn, Iu Idn. Tdng
cudng edng lde thdng tin ve cae
ban tin dy bao KTTV, ddc bidl khi
ed bdo, ATND, mOa, ID den cac
cap lanh dao d l phue vu cdng lae
chi dao phdng chdng bdo, IQ, ddn
cac CO quan thdng tin bdo ehf 6i
thdng bdo eho nhan dan biet chD
dpng phdng, tranh. T l chQe cde
dodn cdng tde Idm nhidm vu kilm
tra, ddn ddc, hd trp ky thuat cho
edc Odi KTTV khu vyc, eae Dai
KTTV linh khi d bao, ATND. Iu
nguy hilm, phQc lap. Td chife
edc bd phdn dy bdo ttln phQOng
tai khu voc trpng dilm khi cd

bao, IG. Bao dam sy hoat dpng
dn i^nh cDa he thdng mdy chD,
edc he Ihdng thdng tin chuydn
ngdnh KTTV dim bao Iidn lae
thdng sudt trong mpi tinh hudng.
Thu thap, xQ ly, lou IrQ sd iieu
KTTV day 6Ci, chfnh xde phuc vu
dy bdo KTTV. Duy Iri hoai ddng
dn dinh, hieu qua cDa hd thdng
mang. Website cDa trung uong vd
dja phUdng d l bio dim truyen tin
dy bdo KTTV, dac biet la ede bin
ttn dy bdo, canh bdo cdc hien
lupng Ihdi tilt, thDy vdn, hai vdn
nguy hilm din ngUdi sQ dung
dDng quy djnh. Oly manh cdng
lde luygn tmyln Ihdng qua eac co
quan bao ehf, cdc hdi nghj, hdi
thao ve cdc hien tupng KTTV,
nhat Id v l cde hien lupng KTTV
nguy hilm, vd edeh sQ dung cae
ban tin dy bdo KTTV dDng vd hidu
qua. Phan ddu moi cdn bd, vien
ChQc trong Trung ldm KTTV qudc
gia, nhd't Id eac quan trie vidn,
ede do bdo vidn deu phli trd
thdnh edc tuyen Iruyen vidn gidi
v l KTTV.B

Tdi nguydn vd Mdi trudng | Kyi-Thing 6/2015

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