Những biểu hiện ban đầu của biến đổi khí hậu đến khu vực ven biển Nghệ An

NGHl!NCClU-11!A0f>dl

11110116 siia m$ii mn Biu
m

BIEN m KHi H4U SEN KHU VUC VEN WBi NGHE AN
Dao Khang, Ph^m Vu Chimg
Trudng Bai hgc Mnh

de CO y nghia sdng con " [3]. Thdng 12/1998, Viet Nam
da tham gia Nghi dinh Kyoto va chinh thiic ky vdo
thdng 9/2002. Nam 2007, Vigt Nam da cdng bd Chidn
luge qudc gia vd phdng chdng, thich nghi va gidm nhe
thien tai ddn nam 2020 (SRV 2007); nam 2008 cong
bd Chuong trinh myc tieu qudc gia iing phd vdi BDKH
[dan theo 1].
Tgi Nghd An, chua cd nhieu bidu jhiOn/ca sddl xac
nhdn tac dOng rd ret cua BDKH. Tuy nhidn, theo cdc
nhd khoa hgc, nhiing vung da dugc cdnh bao,(trong do
cd Vipt Nam) va idling vung da bi thidt hgi do BDKH
gdy ra thi trong nhiing nam tdi se bi thidt hgi ngng hon,
cdn nhiing vung chua bi thidt hai khdng cd nghia la sS
binh an. Tir nhiing ibilu hidn ban diu Hen quan din
BDKH trdn dia ban tinh N ^ d An, bdi bdo de
xuat/khuydn cdo ^ i dp iing phd vdi hi|n tugng ndy
trong kha n^ig cd the, theo quan diim cua khoa hpc
Dia ly.
2. Mgt s6 bilu hl$n lign quan din BDKH toan c^u
va d Ngh$ An
2.1. M^t sd biiu hi^n liin quan din BDKH toan
eau

- S^ thay doi bdt thudng cua thdi tiet - xu the gia
tdng nhiet do:
Xdc ditih xu &e bien ddi nhipt dg d mdt vimg Uinh
thd la rat khd, nhat la d pl^un vi hpp, do sd lugng cdc
Vd thdi do ciia Vidt Nam ddi vdi
tmm quan trdc khi tugng qua it. Theo sd lidu Mai Van
BDKH, nguyen Bd trudng BO Tai
Thdng trich ddn [5], hon 100 ndm tnrdc, con ngudidd
ndi den hipn tugng Tmi ddt dang ndng len vd cdc nha
nguydn va Mdi trudng Nguydn Minh
Quang da noi: "La mot trong nhifng nudc khoa hgc da su dgng phuong trinh cdn bdng nhipt dl xdc
chiu tdc dpng nang ne nhdt ctia BDKH, dinh nhipt do tnmg'bmh tren toan thd gidi da t&ig len
Vi$t Nam coi ung pho vdi BDKH la vdn khodng 0,6^C/100 nam. Day Id gid tri trung binh cho

1. B^t vdn de
Bidn ddi khi hdu (BDKH) dugc hidu la
sg nong Idn cua khi quyen gdy hipn tugng
eye doan/di thudng cua thdi tidt: nude
bidn ddng do bang tan, tgo ndn nhiet cao
han binh thudng tgi hdu hit cac khu vgc
tren be mat trdi dat. Do cdc hien tugng nay
dien ra khdng theo quy ludt, khoa hgc Dia
ly Igi chi ra rdng: trdi ddt da trdi qua nhidu
phen ndng - Ignh khac thudng, vgy md
con ngudi va thd gidi sinh vat vdn tdn tgi,
phdt triln din ngdy nay. iKieu lap lugn
mai^ tinh ngyy bipn: su ndng len todn cdu
roi se qua di nhu da timg qua di nhilu Idn
ti-ong lich su 4,6 ti nam tdn tgi cua trai dat,
da hinii thanh tu tutog Chu quan ciia

khdng it ngudi ve tai bidn mdi tirrdng c ^
hdnh tinh nay. Dd cd nhidu hdi nghi
thugng dinh vd BDKH, vd hipu ung nhd
kinh... nhu: Nghi djnh thu Kyoto li&i quan
din chuong trinh khung vd BDKH ciia
Lidn Hi^ Quoc vdi mgc tidu cdt giam khi
thai, dugc ky ngay 11/12/1997 vd cd hi§u
luc tir ngdy 16/5/2005 [din theo 1]. Thgt
tile Id gdn nhu chua thu dugc kit qud kha
dindo.

S6 6/2014

. TOP^'
1241
" KH-CN N g M A n * '


NGHIEN COU-IRAQ {)6l
toan th6 gidi, khdng phai d mpi dia
phuong deu nong len nhu thi. (S B6ng
Au, giai do»n 1881-1915 tang v4i phin
muoi d0 so v(5i thoi ki tfn*c do, * CHLB
B(ic tang 1»C, a Vi?t Nam tfag 0,7°C [din
theo 5].
- A/vc nir&c biin tidng:
Theo trich din c4a Nguyin Kim Vmh
[7]: muc nu6c dai duong thi gidi tang
trung binh trong su6t thi ki 20 la 1,8
nun/nam; tit nam 1992-2009 khoang 2,8

mm/nSm. Miic tang chungtrong cac dfah
gia tir dO li$u quan trie cho thIy iHtrc
nudc Bifa co thi tSng 0,r-0,2mm/nam
trong v6ng 300 nam nay, thap hon;so voi
trung binh chung cua thi ky 20 vi thip
hon nhilu so vtM trung binh chung tfrnSm
1992 din nay. Bilu niy cho thiy su tSng
ISn cila myc nudc biin 14 r8 ring vingiy
cing m?nh.
Theo Mai VSn Thang [5], d Vi^ Nam,
trong khoing 50 nam qua, mytc nudc biin
da dang khoang 20cm. Theo Nguyin Kim
Vinh [Tii m\rc nudc biin biin dOng rit
phiic tfip do c6 nhilu nguySn nhin, trong
d6 ro n«t nhit la qua trinh tao thanh biin
d0ng oho ki ngin tir vii philt din 18,613
nam c4a mvc nudc biin. Thuc tl bien
ddng muc nudc d c ^ vi!mg khic nhau tr€n
thi gidi cho thiy cd itoi tSng, cd noi giim.
Sir ding Ito ciia mvc nudc dai duong cho
thiy diy la thdi ki ndng Ifti ciia khi hiu
trdi dit, the hi$n ro nhit tii niia sau cAathl
kil9.
2.2. m^t si Heu hi^n c6 lidu hifu lien
quan din BBKH & Nghf An
Cho din nay, vln chua cd nhilu thdng
tin vl BDKH vi nhiing tic d$ng cOa
BBKH dii vdi tii nguy6n - mdi trudng vi
phat triln kinh tl - xa h0i cia tinh Ngh?
An. Sir hilu bilt djnh linimg vl cac hi$n

tuijng die tiung, chi s6, nguySn nhin vi
nhung tic d0ng lidn quan din BDKH d
Ngh$ An Ii nMng thdng tin cin thilt dl
du bio, canh bio, d6ng thdi Ii co sd khoa
hpc trong xSy d\mg chiln lupc ling phd.
Diy \k vi$e lim rit khd khin, tin kSm

s d «/2014

Bi4n xam tlivPc giy h^u qua n|ng nl cfio dM s6ng con ngudi
nhilu cdng sue, tien cua, thdi gian, bdi cic tai biin mdi
trudng d Nghd An thdi nao cung cd nhimg khdng ro net,
tuy CO su khic nhau vl tin suit, cudng dp vi dia diim.
Diu hieu ^ xac nhan hidn tupng BBKH toan ciu Ii
sir thay ddi bit thudng cua thdi tilt, muc nudc biin
ding... C) Nghd An, bilu hidn ro nhit la xam nhip min,
xdi Id bd biin, sat Id dit
- Xam nhap man:
Mpt sd bieu hien c6 thi cd lien quan din BDKH nhu:
su ndng Idn toin cau lim bang tan, nudc biin ding'vi
khi hiu khd dan din hien tupng nudc bidn ngiy cang
xtai nhip s8u vao dit Kin dS xuit hidn d Nghd An. Xam
nhip ffljn tacj ra chii ylu d ha luu sdng Ca, ro nhit la
viing Bin Thuy. Theo sd lidu quan trie cua Dii Khi
tupng thUy van Bac Trung Bd trong 17 nam vd tmh hinh
xam nh^p m5n trdn sdng Ci, man chii yeu xim nhip siu
vio dit liin trong cac thing miia khd keo dii tii thing
12 nam trudc din hit thing 5 nSm sau. Cac gii tri d$c
trang ciia d6 man xay la trong mua ki$t tu nam 19912007 tai didm do Ben Thuy nhu sau; Trong nhung nam
1990, dd min xiy ra cao nhit vio n g ^ 7-8/5/1992 vdi

do man 18%o. Nam dd, mdt dien tich Idn 16a cua viing
Hung Nguyen, Nghi Ldc da bi hdng, dd m|n da xam
nhip len ddn Linh Cam (Ha TMi), Nam ©to (Nghd An).
Cic nam diu cia thd k^ 21, d8 min cacf iftit vi xuit
hidn nhieu nhit vio thing 4 va ddi khi din thing 5. Dp
man dat miie ki luc 20%. vao ngiy 22/4/2007. Mua ki$t
nam 2007-2008: dd man »14%kiet nhung nim gin mif Ii trdn 2D%o,

Tgp cM
[25]
KH-CN Ngh« An


NGHlENC0U-TRAOe6l
Xam nh^p man qua cae eiia sdng ven
bidn d Nghd An ed dp man ngdy cdng
tang, didn bidn phdc tap, nudc man xdm
nh|tp ngdy cdng sdu vdo trong ddt lidn, e6
nai cdch bd 40-50km. Muc dp xdm nhdp
man tii bidn vdo ha luu cac con sdng qua
cua sdng phg thudc vdo didu kidn tg nhidn
vung cua sdng vd mdt phdn do tdc ddng
ciia con ngudi.
- Xoi Id vd boi lang bd bien:
Theo bdo cdo dB tdi "Dieu tra, ddnh
gid su thay ddi dien tich rung phong hp
ven bien, riing nggp man dnh hudng den
xoi Id vd BDKH cdc huyen ven bien tinh
Ngh$ An " dugc thuc hipn tu thdng 7/2008

ddn thdng 6/2009 [2], Nghe An cd 16 d o p
bd bidn thudc 19/44 xa bi xdi Id vdi chidu
ddi khodng 19.290m (ciia lach I1.050m,
bai ngang 8.240m). Tdc dp xdi Id trung

binh 42ni/nam. Nhu v^y, vung ven bidn Nghd An hdng
nam mdt di khoang lOOha ddt. Tai cdc xd San Hdi,
Quynh Long, nhi^u doan xdi Id da vdo sat khu ddn cu.
Mdt sd doan d cac xa Quynh Bdng, Quynh Nggc, t6c
dg xdi Id tii 150-200m/n5m. Doan bd bidn thudc cdc xa
Quynh Phuong, Quynh Bdng (huypn Quynh Luu) bi xoi
Id manh nhdt Id bd bidn bai trieu cao phia Nam den Cdn.
Bd bi^n xd Didn Kim (huy^n Didn Chau) cd d o ^ xdi
Id dai tdi 6km. Doan tii Cua Ld tdi Cua Hdi (huyen
Nghi LOc), trudc khi cd dd, kd, bi xdi Id rat manh. MOt
Id cdt Phdp xdy dung nam 1950 each bd khodng 100m
nay da d canh mep nudc bidn. Tai khu vuc cdc eira lach,
qua trinh xdi Id bd bidn xdy ra manh ban. Nguydn nhdn
khong chi bdi qud trinh tu nhidn md cdn do cdc hoat
dpng kinh td, chu ydu la nudi trdng thuy sdn.
Xu thd xdi Id bd dai ven bidn Ngh$ An dang 1dm cho
ddi bd dich chuyen ddn v^ phia dat l i ^ , t£to ndn nhung
doan bd cong vdi cdc miii nhd ra bidn v6n !a d6i ndi
trgc. Gdn ddy, Nghp An da tr^ng dugc 5.348,lha bach

Bdng. Cac do^n bd biin bi xdi Id if Ngh$ An
TT

Diem x6i Id

Dp dii (m)

Cudng d§
(m/nam)

Dfic diem bd biin

1

Quynh Phuong

1.2

4,4-11,4

Bd biin thoii, ciu tao tu bun cit

2

Quynh Bing

1.8

4,4-11,8

Bd bien cit

3

Quynh Luong

1.6

4,4 - 11,8

Bd bien cat

4

Quynh Minh

1.4

4,4 - 11,4

Bd bien cat

5

Qujnh Nghia

800

6-Apr

Bd bien cit, sdi

6

Quynh Thuan

1.2

4,4-11,1

Bd biin cit, sdi

7

Quynh Long

1.6

4,4-11,1

Bd biin cit, sdi

8

Qu^Tih Hai

1600

4,4-11,1

Bd biin him cit

9

Quynh Thp

500

4,4-11

Bd biin biin cit

10

Dien Hiing

500

3,3 - 8,0

Bd bien cat

11

Di8n Hai

700

3,2-4,8

Bd biin cit

12

Diln Thinh

3.9

8,1 - 18,6

Bd biin cit

13

Diln Kim

4

7,8 - 21

Bd biin cit, cit pha

14

Diln Thanh

2

3,2 - 4,8

Bd bien cit, cit pha

15

Nghi Hai

200

6,8 -10,3

Bd bien cat, cit pha

16

Nghi Yen

1.5

33-60

Bd bien cat, cit pha

Nguon: Si Nong nghiep va Phat triin nong thon (2008) [Dan theo 2]
S6 6/2014

Tgp chf
[26]
KH-CN Nghf An


NGHIEN C0U-TRAOe6l
dan, keo, lim, gid, trdm... tren tdng sd
6.443,3ha ddt nui ddi ven bidn, dat dp che
phd 83%, la mdt cd gdng Idn nhung vdn
cdn tiep tuc phu xanh didn tich cdn l^i vd

bdo vp dipn tich rung da trdng.
Cung vdi xdi Id bd bidn, tinh trang bdi
lang cdc vung cua song, ven bidn ciing Id
hipn tugng khd phd bidn, dang la mdi'de
dpa ddi vdi nhdn dan ven bien, anh hudng
trgc tidp den vipe ra vdo, neo ddu cua tdu
thuyen. Cung theo bao cao dd tdi "Diiu
tra, ddnh gid sy thay doi dien tich rieng
phong ho ven bien, rimg nggp man dnh
hudng den xoi Id vd BDKH cdc huyen ven
bien tinh Nghe An "[2], hipn tugng bdi lang
d bd bidn Nghp An xay ra tai 21/44 xa,
trong dd II xa ed khu vuc cua lach vd 10
xd cd khu vuc bai ngang. Ket qua rd nhdt
cua hipn tugng boi Idng d bidn Nghp An la
vide ndi dao ven bd vdi dat lidn dd tao ra
tdmbdld (ddo ndi vdi dat lidn) vd hinh
thdnh doi cdt ciia sdng. Dd Id tdmbdld Len
Chu va doi cat Cua Hdi.
+ Tdmbdld Len Chu: Len Chu nguyen
la mgt ddo nhd ndm phia Nam cua sdng
Cdm. Ndm 1988, khi dang nghien ciiu ve
dac didm dia raao huydn Nghi Ldc, dd ra
Len Chu, chung tdi phdi di bang thuyen.
Chinh bdng sdng Len Chu da cd vai trd
trong vide lam lang tu phii sa d day de tao
ra tdmbdld. Cdch nay hem 10 nam, dao da
dugc ndi vdi ddt lidn, trdn dd da xdy nhd
nghi Lan Chdu, dat da ndi eao de di ra dd
bang d td.

+ Doi cat Cua Hdi: Tai ede cua sdng d
Bac Trung Bd deu cd 2 doi cat d ca 2 bd,
trong do doi eat bd phdi (phia Nam) ludn
Idn ban doi cat bd trdi (phia Bac). Rieng
ddi vdi sdng Lam, theo quan sdt cua chiing
tdi, doi phia Bac Idn ban doi phia Nam.
Nguydn ly hinh thdnh cdc doi cdt nay
nhu sau: vd mua he - thu, gid chu ydu tu
cac hudng Tdy Nam, Nam vd Ddng Nam
ddy nudc ven bd bidn chay tir Nam len
Bdc; ve mua ddng - xudn, gid chu yeu tii
cac hudng Bac va Ddng Bac day nudc ven
bd biin chdy tir Bdc xudng Nam. Dong

S 6 6/2014

ven bd bidn khi den cac cua sdng, gap ddng chdy trong
song chay ra thi van tdc cua ed 2 ddng chay ddu gidm
vd phu sa trong ca 2 ddng chdy dugc Idng tu. Dong chdy
ven bd miia ddng - xuan ddy phu sa lang tu chu yeu d
bd phia Nam, ddng chdy ven bd mua he - thu day phu
sa lang tu chu yen d bd phia Bac. O bidn Bac Trung Bp,
gio mua ddng - xuan ed tan suat va cudng dp manh han
gid mua he - thu nen cac doi eat phia Nam thudng Idn
ban cdc doi cat phia Bac. Vd vai trd cua sdng bidn, tuy
sdng ludn dem theo mpt lugng phu sa nhung khi vao
bd, v§n tdc sdng van Idn, phii sa chua kip lang tu thi bi
cuon ra bidn. Vi vdy, vai trd ciia sdng bien trong vi^c
tao ra cac doi cdt cua sdng ndi chung khdng Idn.
Rieng doi cdt d Ciia Hdi - Nghp An (nam phia Bac

cua sdng Lam), do anh hudng cua bong song Hdn Ngu
ndn Idn ban doi cdt bd phia Nam thudc Nghi Xuan - Hd
Unh. Nguyen ly hinh thdnh doi cat Cua Hdi nhu sau:
Gan eiia sdng Lam tai Cua Hdi, ed dao Hdn Ngu, tao ra
mpt bdng sdng Idn. Bdng sdng Hon Ngu co vai trd 1dm
gidm rdt nhanh van tdc sdng bidn vd van tdc ddng ven
bd tu cd 2 hudng. Vi vdy, phu sa dugc Idng tu nhieu phia
sau bong sdng Hdn Ngu thupc dia phdn Ciia Hpi - Nghp
An. Tai ddy, khong chi co phu sa sdng, phii sa ddng ven
bd md eon cd ed cac hat do sdng dem ddn lang tu. Theo
ly thuydt, trong tuong lai, do dnh hudng cua bdng sdng
Hdn Ngu, ddo Hdn Ngu se dugc ndi vdi bd thdnh tdmbdld Hdn Ngu nhu tdmbdld Len Chu - Lan Chdu. Nghe
An cdn cd nghien ciiu chuyen sdu vd ndi dung nay dd
cd kdt ludn vd tidn lugng chinh xdc.
2.3. Ly gidi nguyin nhdn xam nhap man, xoi Id vd
boi lang bd biin & Nghi An
De ly gidi nguydn nhan gay ra xdm nhdp man, xdi Id
vd bdi lang bd bidn d Nghd An trong thdi gian gdn day
cd lidn quan ddn BDKH hay khdng, lidn quan ddn muc
dp nao Id rat khd. Nguyen nhdn Id do sd li^u thdng ke
cac dac tnmg ve muc nudc bien dang luu tru d cac tram
quan trae khdng ddy du 1dm cho kdt qud phdn tich khdng
dugc chinh xac.
Ve xdm nhdp man sdu vdo dat lien, cac nhd khoa hgc
da ly gidi hipn tugng nay lidn quan ddn cac van dgng
cua tu nhidn va ciia chinh con ngudi.
- Lien quan den cdc qud trinh xdy ra trong vd trdi ddt:
Cdc qud trinh xay ra trong vd trai ddt nhu ddng ddt,
nui lua, nhdt Id khi chiing xdy ra dudi ddy dai duang,
tao ndn sdng than, cd thd gay ra nhung bidn ddng bit

thudng ciia muc nudc bien. Cac qua trinh thuy - thach
dgng luc xdy ra trong vung bd bidn va cdc ddo cung cd

Tgp chi
127]
KH-CN Ngh« An


NGHlENCOU-TRAOedl

Thi cong dd, kd chong
S9t lo 6 Nam Cu^ng,
Nam Dan

^ ^
*•«- '

thd 1dm bien ddng muc nudc bidn trong
viing.
- Lien quan den cdc qud trinh xdy ra
trong khi quyen:
+ Lidn quan ddn bdo: Cdc qua dinh xdy
ra trong khi quydn tdc ddng ddn su ndng
len cua mgc nudc bien, trudc hdt phdi ke
ddn cdc hidn tugng thdi tiet dgc bipt, nhu:
bao - dp thdp nhipt ddi, ldc, td, xody, lii Igt
vung bd... Dinh cgc dai mgc nudc bien
nam 2006 Id do dnh hudng eua bdo len
bidn dpng mgc nude bien trong vung md
rd nhit Id bdo Durian.

+ Lidn quan ddn hidn tugng El Nino La Nina: Sg bidn ddng cua dp sudt khi
quyen tdc dOng Idn muc nude bidn 1dm
cho mgc nude bien trong Bidn Ddng bien
ddng theo. Ndm 1998 cd hipn tugng El
Niiio rat manh cung la nam mgc nude bidn
d nhimg viing chiu anh hudng cua El Nino
Idn cao han binh thudng. Didu nay cd thd
Id do dnh hudng cua El Niiio nam dd. i
+ Lidn quan ddn gid: Trudng gid gan
bd gay ra hipn tugng nudc dang - nude
nit. 0 Vinh Bde Bd ndi chung, vung bien
Nghp An noi ridng, vdo mua he - thu, gid
Tay Nam thdi tu ddt lien ra, ddy nudc ra
xa bd 1dm muc nudc bien xudng thdp, man
khdng xdm nhdp sdu vdo ddt Uen; vao mua

S6 6/2014

dong - xuan, gid Ddng Bdc ddy nudc bidn vdo bd, 1dm
nude bidn dang cao, man xdm nhdp sau ban vdo trong
ddt lien so vdi mua he - thu.
- Lien quan den cdc qud trinh xdy ra a biinldai
duang:
+ Lidn quan ddn hipn tugng thuy trieu: 6 cdc cua
sdng cd luu lugng Idn, luc thuy tridu len Idm cho muc
nudc bien vd sdng ddu len cao, keo tiieo xdm nhgp man
sau vdo ddt lidn. CJ bidn Nghd An, bao va dp thap nhi|t
ddi thudng triing vdi nhiing can gid mua Ddng Bdc ddu
miia rdt manh. Bao hiit gid thdi manh, neu gap thuy tridu
Idn se keo nudc ddng len cao, xdm nhdp m|in vdo rdt sdu

trong ddt lien.
+ Lidn quan ddn hodn Itm nudc bidn/dai duong do
tdc ddng ctia gid, luc Cdridlis... cd thd gay ndn bidn
ddng muc nudc bien, ddc bidt Id d vung bd, viing cd cdc
xoay, viing cd dia hinh phiic tap. Tuy nhien, gid tri bi^n
ddng muc nudc bidn trong trudng hgp ndy thudng
khdng Idn.
Cdc hien tugng xay ra trong lop vd trdi ddt, trong khi
quydn vd trong dai duang ed thd Id nhiing nguydn nhan
tdc dgng den su dang len cua muc nude bidn, gdy ra
xdm nhdp man sdu vao ddt lien. Bdi vdy, BDKH vd tdc
dgng cua BDKH ddi vdi khu vuc ven bidn Nghe An ndi
rieng, ddi vdi Nghp An ndi chung, can dugc nghidn cuu
ky han, rach rdi hon dd cd gidi phdp iing phd chu ddng,
hidu qud ban.
- Lien quan den cdc hogt dong cua con nguoi:
+ Hoat ddng nan ddng sdng d ha luu 1dm cho ddng
Tqp chi

- AAn 128]

KH-CN Ngh

NGHlENC0U-TRAOfi6l
chdy ngan vd th^ng ban, van tdc ddng
chay dugc tang Idn. Nudc bidn ciing nhd
the md vao sau ban trong dat lien, lam
tang kha nang xdm nhap man. Bdi vdy,
vide ddo kdnh muang, nhdt Id kdnh muong

tidu khu vuc ddng bang ven bidn, can phdi
bet siic than trgng, trdnh dao kenh, muang
tieu nude d nhiing vung cd dO cao (cote)
khdng Idn, khi tridu cudng, nude bidn dd
vdo sdu trong ddt lien gdy xdm nhdp m ^ .
+ Hoat dOng bam hut nudc ngdm qua
miic, lam gidm nhanh chdng ngudn nudc
ngam, 1dm ha muc nudc ngdm se gdy ra
hidn tugng dat bi "xep" xudng. Hidn
tugng tri^u cudng ngdy cdng tang len ed
vd cudng do va tan suit, gdy nhidu trd
ngai cho ddi sdng cua nhan ddn. Id cdnh
bdo cho tdt cd cdc dia phuang ven bidn
trong cd nude vd khai thdc nudc ngdm.
2.4. Mgt sd gidi phdp ung phd vdi cdc
hifn tugng liin quan den BDKH
- Hinh thdnh tu duy sdn sdng ung pho
vai BDKH:
Khi ban Id mpt hd thdng rit nhay cdm
va ludn cd phdn iing trudc mgt thay ddi du
nhd eua tu nhien hay con ngudi. Phan Idn
cdc nghidn ciiu khoa hgc ddu cho rang trai
ddt ndng Idn Id do hidu iing nhd kinh md
nguyen nhdn chii yen Id do hoat ddng ciia
eon ngudi. Thd nhung, trong khi cdc hidn
tugng bit Igi do khi hdu gay ra ludn cd tdc
ddng lien hodn, tdc dp ngdy cang nhanh
vd khdng dl dang khde phuc thi cho den
nay, khdng phdi ai, d ddu, ciing da hinh
thdnh tu duy sdn sdng iing phd can thidt,

him hidu vdi BDKH. Vide xdy dgng cac
gidi phdp cd the ban chd hdu qua xiu do
BDKH gay ra gap khd khan rit Idn Id
thidu du lieu thuc td. Cdc gid tri thidt hai
do BDKH chua du eo sd khoa hgc ndn siic
thuydt phgc chua cao. Vide hinh thdnh tu
duy ling phd vdi BDKH d Nghd An cdn
tranh 2 thai cue: khdng thd a, nhung ciing
khdng qua lo Idng.
+ Khdng thd a: Tu tudng "ndng - lanh
da timg xdy ra nhieu lan tren trdi ddt md
con nguoi vdn tdn tgi vd phdt trien den

S6 6/2014

ngdy nay" hay "ndng- mua la viec cua trdi"... vdn phd
bien trong nhieu ngudi. Bdi vdy, de cd the dua ra cae
gidi phdp, trudc hdt cdn phai xac dinh tu tudng: BDKH
tiieo chidu bat Igi la cd that va tim ra gidi phap dng pho
vdi BDKH Id khdng eua rieng ai. Nhung vung da dugc
cknh bdo (trong dd ed Vidt Nam) vd nhung vung da bi
thidt hai do BDKH gay ra thi trong nhiing nam tdi se bi
thiet hai ndng ban, cdn nhung vung ehua bi thidt hai
hoac thipthai chua Idn (trong dd cd Nghd An) khdng cd
nghia Id trong tuong lai se binh an.
+ Khdng qua lo lang: Trong sudt thd ki 20, nhidt dd
trung binh khi quyen the gidi chi mdi tang 0,6''C. Nghia
Id Ojd^C/lOO nam ndn tac tai cua BDKH didn ra chua
that Idn. CJ Nghd An, BDKJH chua that su gdy ra nhiing
hdu qua ro net. Theo Ld Bd Thdo [4], ndu nhu khu vuc

Ddng bang sdng Hdng vd Ddng bang song Cim Long
cua Vidt Nam dang ed xu hudng lun xudng thi khu vuc
Bac Trung Bg, trong do cd Nghe An dang dugc ndng
len. Theo quan sdt eiia chung tdi nhu da trinh bay d trdn,
nam 1990, ddo Len Chu n&n each xa bd bidn hdng t r ^
mdt, mudn ra do phai di bang thuydn nhung hipn nay,
Len Chu da trd thdnh mgt tdmbdld. Theo Iy thuyet, sdng
tu ngodi khoi vdo gap dao Hdn Ngu se gidm v&i t6c,
lam cho cac bat phii sa lang xudng, ciing vdi phd sa
dong ven bd vd phu sa sdng Lam se bdi lang rat manh
doan tii bd ra ddn Hdn Ngu. Hidn tugng nay ed the nhan
thay khd rd khi dung d khu vuc cdc nhd hdng d Cua Hgi:
bdi cdt dang tidn ra phia Hdn Ngu. Didu nay c6 nghia
Id, khu vuc ven bidn Nghd An dang dugc bdi lang phd
sa d l ndng Idn.
- Dua muc tieu phdt trien ben vitngvdo cdc gidi phdp
ung pho vdi BDKH:
De dua ra cdc giai phap iing phd vdi BDKH, cdn xdc
dinh dugc kha nang bi tdn thuang (vulnerability) vd kha
nang thich nghi (adaptive capacity). Vdi dg bdo/kich
ban "muc nudc ddng cao h m, trong mpt khodng thdi
gian y, tgi mot dia phuang A ven bien ", ta cd the du
dodn thidt hai vd ngudi, ve cua, vd mdi trudng d nai dd
vd ed thd dua ra bidn phdp phdng chdng su gia tang muc
nudc bidn ddng, gidm thidu thidt bai khdng mdy khd
khan. Tuy nhidn, de xdy dung dugc cdc giai phdp iing
phd tdi uu vdi BDKH, cdn phdi du bdo dugc cdng chinh
xac cdng tdt nhiing hau qud do BDKH gdy ra, kha nang
dia chdt vung ven bidn dd dang dugc ndng Idn hay dang
trong qud trinh sut liin; su phat tridn eua khoa hgc - cdng

nghp, td chiic xa hdi cua loai ngudi trong tuong lai... Dd
la nhiing trd ngai ma cdc nhd khoa hgc dang gap phdi

Tqp chi
KH-CN Nghd A n

[29]


NGHIENCOU-TRAO o i l
hien nay. Tuy nhidn, didu do khdng cd
nghia Id khong dam dua ra cac gidi phdp.
Ddi vdi khu vuc ven bidn Nghd An, de
dua ra cdc giai phap iing pho vdi BDKH,
didu quan trgng Id cdn xdc dinh cdch thuc
tidp c^n. Phat trien ben vung can dat ddng
thdi 3 muc tieu (dugc xdp theo thii tu):
kinh te, mdi trudng, xa hdi. Tuy nhidn,
ddi vdi BDKH, ede gidi phap dua ra
khdng ndn dat tidu chi hidu qud kinh te
Idn trdn hdt. BDKH Id vdn dd toan cdu va
lau ddi, cdn cd su ddng thudn cua todn xa
hdi ndn eac tidu chi mdi trudng vd xa hdi
can dugc chu trpng hon. Dong thdi, cac
gidi phdp dd khdng dnh hudng xdu ddn
quydn Igi chung cua dit nudc, eua cgng
ddng.
- Mot so gidi phdp ung pho vdi BDKH
viing ven bien Nghe An:
Nghd An chua cd nhidu bidu hien xdu

lien quan den BDICH. Nhung khdng vi
the md chiing ta khdng quan tdm ddn
nhung du bdo vd nhung tai hga Idn hon
dang rinh rap phia trudc. Vd mat qudn H
theo kd hoach chung cua Vipt Nam, mgt
sd dia phuong da soan thdo chidn luge
"Cng phd vdi BDKH" [5]. Trong do, cdc
dia phuang deu eanh bdo Id cd thd se chiu
nhidu nhihig tdc ddng vd hdu qud to Idn
do BDKH ddi cac ngudn Igi tdi nguydn,
cdc ngdnh kinh te va siic khde cgng ddng.

CJ Nghd An, chua thdy cd nhieu cdng bd thdng tin
xac nhdn nhung ddu hi^u canh bao cua BDKH d dja
phuong mgt each chdc chan vd tin cdy, cdn thidu co sd
khoa hgc de dua ra nhimg gidi phap thich dng iing pho
vdi BDKH. Dd cai thipn vdn dd nay, Nghp An dang cdn
CO cdc nghien ciiu vd: Vai trd cua bien Ddng ddi vdi
BDKH d Nghd An; Xu the bien ddi cua cdc hp sinh thai
quan xa bidn nhiet ddi nhu riing ngdp man, ran san hd,
thdm cd bidn...; Xu thd phdt tridn ciia nghd cd, du lich
vd cdc ngdnh kinh td lidn quan ddn bien trong didu kidn
BDKH.
3. Ket luan
C) Nghe An, tuy da xudt hipn mdt sd diu hidu cdnh
bdo vd BDKH nhu nhi|t dO tdi cao da Idn ddn tren 42''C
d Quy Chdu, Tuong Duong, nhidt do tdi thip xudng
den 0°C a Quy Chdu mua ddng 2013, su gia tang cac
con loc d bidn Quynh Luu, gia tang cudng dg mua, thdi
lugng vd miic dp ndng ndng trong pham vi cd tinh...

Bdi vidt chi mdi ndu dugc mdt sd bidu hi^n cd thd co
lien quan ddn BDKH d ddi ven bidn, ly gidi m^t s6 hidn
tugng, de xuit mdt sd giai phdp khuydn cdo vd thdi dp
ling xu tuong tiiich vdi BDKH d N ^ p An. Tuy nhidn,
cae vdn de vd khi hdu rdt nhay cam, de gay ddt bidn,
BDKH Id hidn tugng cd tinh todn cdu, Idu ddi, hdu qua
cd tinh lidn hodn vd khd ludng trudc. Cdc bidu hidn cua
BDKH nhu vdt ndt ciia con dd, neu khdng quan tdm gia
cd tir ddu se den liic va dd.
Nghp An cdn cd cdc nghidn ciiu sdu ban vd BDKH,
cdc ddng thdi tich cue hon trong xdy dgng co sd Iy ludn
vd thuc tidn vd BDKH dd cd thdi dg iing xu tuong
thich, bien phap ung phd tdi uu./.

Tdi li^u tham khdo
1. Ngo Vuong Anh, Biin ddi idii hdu de dga di sdn vdn hda Viet Nam - Cdch nao di dng phd. Khoa hpc Xa h6i &
Nhan van so 12/2013.
2. Vo Van Hong (2009), Di&u tra. ddnh gid su thay ddi di$n tich rimg phong hp ven bien. rimg ngdp m^n dnh
huang den xoi l& vd BDKH cdc huy$n ven bientinhNgh?An, Chuang trinh nSng cao nang luc quan ly d4t dai va moi
tnicmg (SEMLA).
3. BQ Tkx nguyen vk Moi truemg, Kich ban biin ddi Ichi hau. nuac biin dang cho Vi^t Nam. Ha N6i, 20 U, rstmt.binhduong.gov. vn 02/4/2014).
4. Theo Le BaThao (2001), Thien nhien Vi$tNam. Nxb Giao due, Tai bin.
26nim\ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ *^^^°'' ^"^''''^ "^ ^'^ ^^' **' ^^" ^^^^"^ ^°^- ^^"8 thong ttin difn tu tinh Khanh Hoa
6. Vi^n Hai dumg hpc (2011), Cdm nang tra cim vi diiu kien tjf nhien. Moi trudng, Sinh thdi Hnh ti. Xd hpi va
Quan ll tong hpp dai ven b&Nam Trung Bp. Nxb Khoa hpc tg nhien va c6ng nghp
. . ^;,?^^^!"f"" "^f" t2°^^^' ^Shiin cuu dac diim biin dpng muc nudc biin trong diiu kien biin ddi khi hdu hiin
dai. Vi^n Hai duong hpc.

SO 6/2014

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[30]
KH-CN Ngh^ An ' '