Empirical test on impacts of monetary policy and fiscal policy on vietnam’s stock marke

666 | Policies and Sustainable Economic Development

Empirical Test on Impacts of Monetary
Policy and Fiscal Policy on Vietnam’s
Stock Market
TRAN THI THANH TU
VNU University of Economics and Business -

PHAM THUY LINH
VNU University of Economics and Business

NGUYEN ANH TIEP
VNU University of Economics and Business

DO THI THUY
VNU University of Economics and Business

Abstract
This research evaluates the effects of monetary policy tools and fiscal policies
on Vietnam’s stock market, in addition to examining interaction between these
two policies with the Vietnam stock price index. Utilizing Vector Error Correction
Model (VECM), with nine variables and data monthly statistics from January 2002
to October 2015, this study confirms that there are links between monetary
policy/fiscal policy and Vietnam's stock market. In addition, Vietnam’s stock
market is also affected by exogenous factors, namely the world oil prices and the
S&P500 index, especially when Vietnam's economy is opening up and integrated
with the global economy.

Keywords: monetary policy; fiscal policy; stock market

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1. Introduction
In Vietnam, the stock market plays an important role in mobilizing and
allocating a large amount of capital to achieve the goal of industrialization
and modernization: a sustainable development economy, an efficiency
economy restructure, a competitiveness improvement. Vietnam stock
market officially operationed in the year of 2000 with only two listed
companies with market capitalization reached 986 billion (0.28% of GDP at
this time). After 10 years of performace, the two stock exchanges in Hanoi
and Ho Chi Minh City had more than 678 listed companies and more than
200 UPCoM registered company who are upcoming listed. For over 15
years, the stock market has mobilized a huge amount of capital that up to
2 million billion VND so far, market capitalization ups to 34% of GDP, a 114
times increased in comparison to the beginning. The market capitalization
of shares and shares value traded has reached 1,300,000 billion (a 1,300
times increased) and more than 2,000 billion/session (a 1,400 times
increased) respectively. The stock market is now functioning as a channel
for capital mobilization of the economy, achieved an important part of the
financial markets.However, the stock market is very sensitive to
macroeconomic changes as well as to the behavior and psychology of
investors, so just a small mistake will create disruption on the financial
markets, affecting to the entire economy. This explains why the
development and stability of securities markets is the most concerns in
economic development of each nation. For sustainable economic growth
purpose, the government must issue the macroeconomic policies and the
two most deciding tools in the economy management are the monetary
policy and fiscal policy. Through fiscal policy, the government uses
taxation and public spending tools to regulate the overall spending of the

economy. And through the monetary policy, the State Bank can adjust the
money supply level, interest rate and the money multiplier, which directly
impact on monetary circulation, by using many different monetary tools.
Each change in monetary policy or fiscal policy would have created an
either direct or indirect impact on the stock market. Therefore, the lack of
combination between monetary policy and fiscal policy exposes significant
challenges for fiscal balance and monetary stability of the economy.
From seeing the strengths and weaknesses points of each policy may
impact positively or negatively on the stock market then the investors and
policy agencies need to consider about the relationship between
macroeconomic policies with the stock market. Therefore, this study
mainly focus on assessment the impact of monetary policy and fiscal
policy tools on Vietnam stock market to forecast the stock market reaction
as well as the interaction of two these policies and making
recommendationsfor investors and policy makers based on the results.
2. Literature review
Financial market in general and stock market in particular play an
important role in developing economics in each country. Especially, “stock
markets are sensitive to information”, (Liya Wang, 2010). According to
Galbraith (1955), (quoted in Singh Shivangi & Jotwani Naresh (2012)) “the


668 | Policies and Sustainable Economic Development

stockmarket is but a mirror, which provides an image of the underlying or
fundamental economic situation.” In reality, researches about the
relationship between macroeconomics policies and stock market draw
policy makers and scholars’ much attention.
Besides evaluating the effect of monetary policy and fiscal policy on
stock market individually, many researchers also have empirical

researches to determine how the combination of these policies has effects
on stock market. According to this approach, researchers found out not
only the changes in stock market connected with the changes in both
macroeconomics policies but also the interaction between monetary policy
and fiscal policy in explaining the activities of stock market.
Franco Fiordelisi and Giuseppe Galloppoc (2015) measured the stock
market’s response as the changes in monetary policy and fiscal policy. This
research is based on stock index of eleven countries, which are the U.S,
Britain, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain, Holland, Japan, Italy, Germany, China,
and Belgium, during the period from 2007 to 2013. In addition to give
recommendations for policy makers, it was also a reference for investors
and risk managers to make decisions appropriately. For Pakistan market,
Waseem Ahmad Khan (2014) had found the same results that relating to
the impact of macroeconomics variables on stock market. However, there
are some differences between the researches. Yu Hsing (2013) revealed
that the monetary policy affected stock index but it was not correct for
fiscal policy in Poland market. Besides, the author also determined the
stock index of the U.S and Germany had considerable effect on stock
market performance in Poland.
Studies about Southeast Asian countries provided new approaches to
analyze the response of stock market and focused more onthe practicability
of the researches. Rossanto Dwi Handoyo et al. (2013) evaluated stock prices
response in general and agricultural, mining, manufacture, and financial
sector indexes in particular to macroeconomics policies shock. The more
specific the researches are, the more investors understand about stock
market and how each sector in economy changes. On the whole, stock market
had positive response to monetary policy shock and negative policy response
to fiscal policy. Another research about Malaysia, the authors found the
relationship between macroeconomics policies and stock market performance
by using VECM model (vector error correction model). Besides, they also

confirmed the research’s application in reality. Thus, both monetary policy
and fiscal policy play a critical role in Malaysia stock market. Nevertheless,
monetary policy affected stock index faster than fiscal policy did. Specifically,
this study not only helped policy makers and authorities comprehend stock
market’s behavior but also know the benefits of using information to achieve
monetary goals. Moreover, “this finding would give a signal to the investors to
strategize their investment decisions in the short and long run” (Hussain Ali
Bekhet et al. (2012)). It is significant for researchers to find more factors
effecting on stock market. For the case of Singapore, Ghulam Ali et al. (2014)
revealed the significance of researching this subject. The reason was that
policy makers and investors would have a glance at the financial market in
the future as the changes in monetary policy and fiscal policy were
implemented. In summary, the researches all applied econometrics methods
to measure the stock market responses when Government made the


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adjustments in macroeconomics policy. In addition, the studies in the past
also found the relationship between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and stock
market performance. It was generally valuable for policy makers to develop
stock market and for investors to make the investment decisions.

Duong Ngoc Mai Phuong et al (2015) gave more details about the
impact of monetary policy on Vietnam stock market. Through SVAR model,
the study revealed that there was a close relationship between stock index
and monetary policy. In addition, stock market also played a vital role in
the transmission mechanism of monetary policy for the achivevement of
quantity growth, price targets, and the promulgation of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Phuc Canh (2014) researched the asset price channel
to assess the impact of monetary on stock market. Although the author
applied SVAR model, he used the original data series, which were non–
stationary, which could cause an inaccurate model, so it may not estimate
the relationship between the variables in the long run because of the
cointegration. Besides, the ignoring of the Granger causality test in the
model would lead to the disorder of the variables of the model, which may
reduce the accuracy and reliability of the estimated model.
In conclusion, the research about the relationship between the
macroeconomics factors and stock market performance is a subject which
got much attention by the researchers. However, there were just studies
about the impact of monetary policy in Vietnam, not the ones related to
the fiscal policy. In addition, those authors just focused on evaluating the
effect of responds and did not forecast the changes in the future that were
valuable to investors. Therefore, we want to test the effects of monetary
policy and fiscal policy as well as the interaction between these policies on
influencing stock market activities in Vietnam. Also, we will give the
forecast for the market based on the econometrics analysis.
3. The changes in monetary policy – fiscal policy and the Vietnam‘s

stock market
3.1. Monetary policy and fiscal policy
During the period 2000–2015, Vietnam economy witnessed many strong
movements, especially, the impact of the crisis in the region and the
world. This required the Government to adopt flexible, effective
macroeconomic policies and in a timely manner to help the national
economy overcome difficulties and achieve the targets of growth in each
period.
In the period of 2000–2006: The percentage of Expenditure on GDP ratio
and budget deficit soared since the government implemented expansion

policies to achieve the objective of economic recovery and stimulate
growth after the Asian financial crisis.
Period 2007–2008: Vietnam economy suffered from the effects of the global
financial crisis. As the result, the economic growth rate decreased from 8.48%
(2007) to 6.31% (2008). Besides, the prioritized target in this period was to
control inflation – a consequence of the increased in aggregate demand in the
previous period. In addition, to resolve the difficulties in this period, the
Government implimented tight monetary policy and fiscal policy, reduced the
budget deficit from 6.8% (2007) to


670 | Policies and Sustainable Economic Development

1.4% (2008) and flexibly used the tools of monetary policy such as: (i) the
required reserved ratio increased; (ii) the provision of central bank bills not
be used to refinance at the central bank; (iii) The base rate increased; (iv)
controlling the credit quota and requiring tightly controlling the high–risk
borrowing fields.
During the period 2009–2011: After the global economic crisis, the
Government implemented the economic stimulus package. The first $1 billion
worth package was to support the interest rates cost for small and medium
enterprises and the second package worth approximate $8 billion to support
medium and long term interest rates cost to encourage investment and
production development. However, the government tightened fiscal policy to
curb inflation in the coming years through measures such as: (i) increasing
base interest rate, discount rate, and refinancing rate; established ceiling
deposit interest rate; (ii) increasing reserved requirement; (iii) rising exchange
rate; (iv) limiting credit growth – money supply and (v) cutting investment,
saving 10% of spending.

With the recovery of domestic economy’s growth ratefrom 2012 until
the end of 2015, the objective of macroeconomic policy also has changed
which are now focusing on macroeconomic stability and supporting
enterprises instead of curbing high inflation which is the main target in the
period 2010–2011. Specifically, for fiscal policy, the Government is
operating towards strictly manage revenue as well as savings and
reducing the nation budget deficit. Monetary policy focused on exchange
rate stability, inflation curb go along with the credit policy toward
supporting the production, removing difficulties for the business sector.
3.2. The development of Vietnam's stock market
The launch of Vietnam's stock market was marked by the event that
Securities Trading Center City. Ho Chi Minh went into operation on 20 July,
th
2000. The first session took place later on July 28 with only 2 kinds of
share were listed with the amount of capital mobilized 270 billion dong
and a fewof government bonds. For the early stages of formation and
development (2000–2005), the stock market was only with a small amount
of listed companies, sparse commodities, and transactions. However, in
this period, foreign investors appeared - with the highest percentage of
holding shares was 30%.
Then, Vietnam stock market went into a breakout period 2006–2007,
trading activities took place more bustle on both stock exchanges in Ho
Chi Minh, Hanoi and OTC markets. The market size increased rapidly and
reached 22.7% of GDP in 2006 and 43% in 2007. The number of listed
companies increased with the amount of capital mobilized nearly 40,000
billion dong in 2007. In 2009, the stock market changes returned
positively, that presented though both VNIndex and HNX– Index raised
above 50%, the number of listed companies in both two trading centers
was 541 at the end of the year, the total market capitalization was
620.551 trillion dong and equivalent to 38% of GDP.

The period 2010–2012 witnessed fluctuations in the stock price Vietnam
index due to the situation in the country and the international, such as the
European debt crisis or high inflation, unstable


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exchange rates... However, the stock market began recovery powerfullyin
2013 when inflation rate was controlled, interest rates reducted, foreign
reserves increased, and the deployment of securities tax–deductible
transfer solutions. VNIndex rose nearly 23% and HNX–Index increased
above 13% compared to the end of 2012. So, 2013 can be considered as
an establishment for the stabilization of market in 2014. However, many
market sessions still declined due to the impact of event in the South
China Sea and world oil prices.
In 2015, the macroeconomic condition was more positive; however, the
stock market experienced a fluctuation, the growth of the Index was 5% due
to the influence of external factors, the strongest ones were the exchange
rate fluctuations and the falling in oil prices. Besides those changes, the
undeniable growth of Vietnam's stock market after more than 15 years of
operation made remarkable progress with market capitalization of over 1.3
million billion dong, equivalent to 34% of GDP with average trading per
session reached 4.964 billion with 682 stocks listed on the two trading
centers.

In the strategy for Development Vietnam stock market in 2011–2020,
the Prime Minister signed Decision No. 252/QD–TTg oriented VN stock
market aim to: increase the size, depth and liquidity Terms of the stock
market; strive for bringing the total market capitalization reached 70%

GDP in 2020, this shows that the stock market becoming major channel for
capital mobilization is really one of the great objectives of the Government
on the way to completing the objectives of the industrialization modernization country.
4. Research methodology
This research’s purpose is to evaluate the impact of monetary policy and
fiscal policy on Vietnam stock market during the period 2000–2015.
Besides, the authors reveal how the exogenous variables affect stock
index.
Table 1
The variables in the research
Variables

Exogenous variables

Monetary policy


Fiscal policy


672 | Policies and Sustainable Economic Development

Variables

The interaction
between these policies

Dependent variable

Table 2

Describing the variables
Variables
Oil Price
US Stock Index
Money Supply
Vietnam Basic Interest Rate
Budget Expense on GDP
Budget Revenue on GDP
Price Consumer Index
Budget Deficit
Vietnam Stock Index

Vector autoregression model (VAR) is a model used to determine the linear
impact between time series variables. VAR model is built from simple
autoregression models. Each variable has an equation which explains the
development of this variable based on its lag and the others’ lag. However,
VAR model often reflects the short–run relationship between variables. In
addition, the variables must satisfy two conditions which are stationary and
non–cointegration. Unless these conditions are satisfied, using VAR can cause
the spurious regression problem. Granger and Newbold (1973) were the first
people to lay the foundation for this problem. They hypothesized that there
were two time series variables which totally had no relationship and were
non–stationary. Then, they made a regression model between these variables.
As a result, there was a clear relationship between them and statistics were
meaningful. In fact, the result was not accurate.
Vector error correction model (VECM) – an extended model of VAR – was
developed to solve this problem. In VECM model, time series also were
stationary. Besides, we need to add a vector error correction with the length
which equals to cointegration relationship between series in the model.
In addition, VECM can estimate the long–run relationship between time

series. Therefore, VECM model is widely used to evaluate the impact of
macroeconomic variables which are time series and cointegration in the long–
run. Guglielmo Maria Caporal et al (2010) tested the relationship between
monetary policy and exchange rate during the Asian financial crisis by using
VECM model. Muhamad


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Abduh (2009) revealed the short–term and long–term relationship between
US monetary policy and Indonesia stock market through VECM model.
Then, the author gave recommendations to improve the effect of
monetary policy and avoid external impacts.
Fahad Alturki and Svetlana Vtyurina (2010) used VECM model to analyze
the impact of inflation on monetary policy in Tajikistan. Researches with
VECM models indicated that the effect of monetary policy on the stock
market through each stage varied from country to country (Aziza O.F.
Francis, 2010). Based on theoretical and empirical findings of the previous
studies, we decided to choose VECM model to evaluate the stock market’s
responses to the changes in monetary policy and fiscal policy.
To conveniently construct the equations, we use an alphabet words to
mark the variables. V, O, S, M, I, R, E, C, D are stand for VNIndex, Oil Price,
S&P500, Money Supply, Interest Rate, Budget Revenue, Budget Expense,
Consumer Price Index and Budget Deficit respectively.
In this model, VNIndex is a dependent variable and the others are
independent ones. We have:
Vt = f(Ot, St, Mt, It, Rt, Et, Ct, Dt)
VECM model is estimated through three basic steps. Besides, the
hypothesis is the time series variables are stationary.
Step 1: Estimating the VAR model by constructing the vector regression

equation for each variable.
Step 2: Testing the variables’ cointegration by using the Johansen
methodology.
Step 3: If there is at least a cointegration. VECM model will be estimated
based on VAR model which is built earlier.
5. Test results
Table 2
Unit root test

Variables

Oil
S&P500
M2
IR
Revenue
Expense
Vnindex
CPI
Deficit



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Table 3
Lag length criteria
Lag

LogL

1

374.1502

2

685.9606

3

836.9412

4

994.5298

5

1068.570

6

1174.779

7
*: Indicates lag order selected by the criterion.

The authors defined the relationship between the variables following
Johansen method with optimal lag is 7 by using two standards AIC and SC.
Both standards give results which have cointegration between variables,

which is the base for using VECM model.
According to the above examination, these standards offer two different
type of model. To decide which standards to use the model, the
researchers estimated VECM model in both standards and selected a
model with a higher level of significance.
The variables used in the model: loil, lsp500, lrevenue, lcpi, deficit, lexp,
lvninex, ir, lm2. The ordinal of the variables is sorted according to the
principle of from least affected variable to most affected variable on the
basis of Granger causality test.
Results which estimates VECM model in two standard models show that the
standard AIC has higher levels of significance. Therefore, the authors use the
standard model VECM according to AIC.

Table 4
Coefficient of determination

R2
̅

Source: Caculated by the authors

Table 5
Residual groupunit root test
Method
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process)
Levin, Lin & Chu t*
Null: Unit root ( assumes individual unit root process)

1296.215

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Im, Pesaran and Shin W–stat
ADF – Fisher Chi–square
PP – Fisher Chi–square

The purpose of testing the stationary residuals is to check the suitability
of the model. According the result, the residuals of the VECM model is
stationary at the 5% level with p–value equals to 0; so that, the model was
fit for time–series data.
To make models be highly reliable, the residual of the model must have
no Heteroskedasicity. Test results showed that the residuals of White have
no Heteroskedasicity phenomenon at the 5% significance level.
Table 6
Residual heteroskedasticity test
VEC Residual Heteroskedasticity
Included observations: 156
Joint test:
Chi-sq

df

Prob.

6274.696

6210

0.2794

Table 7.
Autocorrelation LM Test
VEC Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests
Null Hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h
Lags
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Testing autocorrelation among the residuals of the model shows that the
residuals of the model with different latencies have no autocorrelation at
the 1% significance level. Thus, VECM model was satisfied.


676 | Policies and Sustainable Economic Development

Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial
1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5
-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Figure 1. AR Roots Graph

A VAR model is stable when its unit roots are less than 1 and inside of the
unit circle. The test results showed that the smaller polynomials roots are
smaller than 1 and within the unit circle (these are 4 roots larger than 1is
VECM model imposed by VECM model which equal to thevariables in the
model minus the number of cointegration), VECM model is stable and
acceptable.
Then the authors made a forecast about VNIndex for the year of 2016 by

using the data collected.

Table 9
Forcasting VNIndex for the year of 2016

Time

12/2015
01/2016
02/2016
03/2016
04/2016
05/2016
06/2016
07/2016
08/2016
09/2016
10/2016
11/2016
12/2016


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6. Discussions and recommendations
Results of VEC model showed a close correlationbetween monetary
policy and fiscal policy with Vietnam's stock market. Each policy has
different impacts on the stock market depends on their targets. The study
also points out the interaction effects between monetary policy and fiscal

policy. In addition, the authors indicated that Vietnam's stock market also
affected by external economic factors which is the S&P500index and the
world oil prices.
Firstly, monetary policy and stock market have a close relationship with
each other. In short–run, the expansionary monetary policy which helps
increasing the money supply has a positive impact on the stock market
while tightening monetary policy has the opposite effect. But in the long–
run, the stock index responses to monetary expansionin a negative way
due to the increasing in the money supply will cause a rise in future
inflation, then cause negative impact on the economy and the stock
market . Similarly, the last studies revealed that there was a positive
relationship between money supply and stock index. However, State Bank
can not expand money supply forever because it will cause inflation in the
economy. Therefore, monetary policy needs to be used flexibly and
efficiently. Besides, interest rates have a positive impact on stock index in
short term but negatively in the long term. Duong Ngoc Mai Phuong et al.
(2015) found that the increase in interest rate would make stock market
decline. Besides, Nguyen Phuc Canh (2014) showed that interest rate
affected negligibly on VNIndex. The difference in the results of the
researchers could be explained by the authors’ choice. Each author chose
the different types of interest rate. For this study, we chose “Basic interest
rate” whereas Duong Ngoc Mai Phuong et al.’s choosed (2015) was
“Discount rate”. In addition, Nguyen Phuc Canh (2014) used three types of
interest rate, which were “Refinance rate, Discount rate and Policy Rate”.
The results of the study showed that the stock index responses to both
money supply M2 and interest rate increase positively in short–term and
negatively in long–term. In present, when inflation rate below 1%, the
central bank should increase the level of money supply M2 and alleviate
the interest rate for controlling inflation to stabilize the macroeconomic,
therefore, make an effective environment for developing the stock market.

But it also opens up challenges for the central bank to flexibly use policy
tools, especially open market and interest rate tools, based on the
response of stock index to macroeconomic factors. Depend on Granger
causality test, causal links between money supply and the stock index,
interest rates and the stock index have been confirmed. In 2016, though
the world economy is forecasted to be growth, investors should focus
economic factors which are highly affected by changing in monetary
policy.
Secondly, a connection between fiscal policy and the stock market is
also founded. An increase in fiscal spending, reflecting the expansionary
fiscal policy, has a negative impact on the stock market in both the short–
term and the long–term. This is the consequence of budget deficits that


make the government borrow money which will raise a concern about
inflation increased in the future. And


678 | Policies and Sustainable Economic Development

the allocation of nation budget in Vietnam is mainly concentrated in non–
investment expenditure which has a negative impact on the economy.
In addition, the stock market is negatively affected by tight fiscal policy.
The increased in nation budget may reflecting the rising in tax causing
both the consumers and enterprises have to pay an extra cost for
consuming and producing. Therefore, the government must use its budget
in an effective way, avoiding the budget deficit, controlling and reasonable
allocating funds. Especially when Vietnam’s public debt is now
dramatically rising, accounted for nearly 61.3 percent of GDP in 2015
(Ministry of Finance).

Thirdly, the research pointed out that both monetary policy and fiscal
policy not only affect the stock market on their own but also impact the
stock market through their interaction, which can be represented by 2
variables: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Budget Deficit. An increased in
CPI is the consequence of risen inflation rate and this causes adverse
effects to the stock market. Both researches of Duong Ngọc Mai Phuong et
al. (2015) and Nguyen Phuc Canh (2014) showed the similar consequence
about the relationship between inflation and stock index. Because
investors now have less attraction for stock investing, and priority for
buying gold or making a saving deposit. The budget deficit is showing that
the government’s spending exceeded its income, so the government must
borrow money to cover their spending through issuing bonds. In the long–
term, the inflation rate raises dramatically and negatively affects the
economy as well as the stock market. Therefore, to fulfil the major target
of both monetary policies and fiscal policy, with a stabilized inflation rate,
the interaction between these two policies must be taken seriously. On the
one hand, money supply and interest rate need to be adjusted reasonably.
Andthe budget spending must now be more saving and efficiency,
avoiding budget deficit that cause many negative effects to the economy.
So that, stabilizing inflation and economic growth targets can be fulfilled.
Fourthly, the stock market reacts not only with the endogenous variables,
but also with the exogenous variables, namely the US stock index (S&P500)
and the oil price. The increase in US stock index shows a strong growth in the
world economy, which positively influences the stock market but has a slight
negative effect on the stock market in the long run. Meanwhile, the oil price
has different effects on the stock market over each period, but mostly
negative effects. Nguyen Phuc Canh (2014) also measured the impact of oil
price on stock market. The result was VNIndex flucated at different times.
Therefore, in addition to an analysis of domestic policies, investors need to
pay attention to external factors, which have a strong effect on the

developing economies like Vietnam. Moreover, Vietnam stock market needs
to be developed, in line with international practice. Thereby reducing the
effect of exogenous factors on the stock market and minimizing risk for
investors.
Besides, the authors also used VECM model to forecast the Vietnam stock
index (VNIndex) from December, 2015 to December, 2016. The anticipated
results were in line with actual results by the end of April, 2016. Based on the
anticipated results, we can see that the stock index will decrease from May to


October, then increase in November and December, with the maximum at
631.82 points.


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This prediction is consistent with the forecast of Vietnam economy in
2016, which expected to continue to grow rapidly.
7. Limitations
This study has some limitations in data analysis because of limited
access to data. So in our next researches, we will try to complete the
dataset and implement the stock indexes classified by sectors (minning,
finance, agriculture…). The evaluation of these indexes will bring more
practical value, especially for investors. Because VNIndex represents for
the stock market in general, meanwhile, manufacture – business
characteristics have some certain differences, so changes in
macroeconomic factors will have different effects on stock sector index.
Therefore, the analysis of both VNIndex and sector index will help decision
makers and investors get not only the panoramic view, but also the sector

– specific activities, which let decision makers give appropriate policies
and investors make accurate decisions.
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