The impact of climate change on wetland resources along lake wamala, mityana district, uganda

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

BAKER MATOVU

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLAND RESOURCES
ALONG LAKE WAMALA, MITYANA DISTRICT, UGANDA

MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA-2018


MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

BAKER MATOVU
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLAND RESOURCES
ALONG LAKE WAMALA, MITYANA DISTRICT, UGANDA
MASTER THESIS
Major

Marine

Ecosystem

Based

Management and Climate Change
Code:
Topic Allocation Decision

Decision

on

establishing

the

Committee:
Defense Date:
Supervisors:
1. Dr. Nghia Ngo Dang
2. Dr. Pradeep Kumara Terney
Chairman of the Committee:
Faculty of Graduate Studies:

KHANH HOA-2018


DECLARATION/UNDERTAKING
I undertake that the thesis entitled; “The Impact of Climate Change on wetland
resources along Lake Wamala, Mityana District, Uganda” is my own work. The work
has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted.

DATE: …………. /…………../………….

SIGNATURE: ………………………………………..

Matovu Baker

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express the deepest appreciation NORAD/NORHED Project in
conjunction with Nha Trang University for helping and giving me the best platform and
conditions to write and finish my studies and Master’s thesis.
Special thanks go to Dr. Nghia Ngo Dang and Dr. Pradeep Terney Kumara for not only
supervising my research but also the continuous support during my study, patience,
motivation, enthusiasm, immense knowledge and insights you gave me. I must say it was
a cornerstone in polishing up my thesis and developing new ideas that made this work a
fruition.
Special gratitude to my academic mentors and counselors notably; Dr. Jerome Sebadduka
Lugumira of Washington, USA, Thomas Russell Cummins of Calgary, Canada and Russ
Harvey; I am always indebted to you as you have been the drivers of this journey to date.
I hope I have not disappointed you.
Lastly but not least, I would like to thank my family; my parents, brothers and sisters and
relatives for the financial, moral and spiritual support in all my endeavors even during
the times of trial. I have to assure you that I hope to reciprocate such selflessness.

DATE: …… /…………../………….

SIGNATURE: ……………………………………….

Matovu Baker


Contents
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the problem ..............................................................................5
1.3 Justification of the study ...............................................................................6
1.4 Objectives ........................................................................................................6

1.4.1 Overall objective .......................................................................................6
1.4.2 Specific Objectives ...................................................................................7
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................8
2.1 Climate Change/Global Warming and Manifestation ...............................8
2.2 Uganda and climate change vulnerability .................................................12
2.3 Lake Wamala, changes in wetland resources and its surrounding
environment ........................................................................................................14
CHAPTER THREE..................................................................................................15
3.0 Research Methods and Materials ...............................................................15
3.1 Study Area ....................................................................................................15
3.2 Study methods ..............................................................................................17
3.3 Study Design .................................................................................................18
3.3 Data Acquisition ...........................................................................................19
3.4 Data synthesis and Analysis ........................................................................20
3.4.1 Temperature ............................................................................................20
3.4.2 Rainfall ....................................................................................................20
3.4.3 Water Balance changes ...........................................................................20
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS ................................................................................21
4.1 Demographic Characteristics of Households ............................................21
4.2. Local Communities’ Perception on Climate Change ..............................23
4.3 Water Level changes ....................................................................................24
4.4. Climate Variability and Livelihood...........................................................24
4.5. Climate change and wetland resources.....................................................25
4.6. General causes of wetland resource loss ...................................................26
4.7. Main Risks associated with wetland resource loss...................................28


4.8 Mitigation and Adaptation measures .........................................................28
4.8.1 Local Communities Adaptation ..............................................................28
4.8.2 Government interventions or adaptation strategies ................................30

CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION ............................................................................32
5.1. Climate Trend Analysis and Perception ...................................................32
5.1.1 Impact of climate change on wetland resources .....................................32
5.2. Climate variability and livelihoods. ..........................................................35
5.3. Climate Variability and wetland resources ..............................................36
5.4. Causes of Wetland Resources Loss ...........................................................37
5.5. Risks associated with illicit wetland resource degradation and loss ......38
5.6. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies .......................................................39
5.7. Relationship between Lake Wamala’s Demographic Characteristics
and Climate change adaptation ........................................................................41
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .....................44
6.1 Conclusions ...................................................................................................44
6.2 Recommendations ........................................................................................45
Implementation plan and estimated budget. ............................................................48
REFERENCES.........................................................................................................49
Appendices ...............................................................................................................66
Appendix 1. Semi structured questionnaire for data collection ....................66
Appendix 2. Data entry and analysis format ...................................................74
Appendix 3. Selected Demographic Characteristics of Uganda ....................74
Appendix 4. Annual minimum and maximum Temperatures (OC) extracted
from Mubende Station, data from 1990-2012 .................................................75
Appendix 5. Annual Rainfall pattern (mm) recorded at Mubende Weather
Station around Lake Wamala, 1990-2011 .......................................................76
Appendix 6. Monthly Average Rainfall (mm) for Mubende Weather Station
near Lake Wamala, 1990-2012 .........................................................................77
Appendix 7. Decadal average temperature (OC) from Mubende Station
around Lake Wamala, 1990-2012.....................................................................77
Appendix 8. Historical Monthly Temperature (OC) variations for Mityana
District .................................................................................................................77

Appendix 9. Annual mean minimum and mean maximum temperature
anomalies (OC) time series analysis for Mubende weather station near
Lake Wamala 1990-2012 ...................................................................................78
Appendix 10. Annual average rainfall anomalies (mm) and Standard
Precipitation Indexes (SPI) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake
Wamala from 1990-2012 ...................................................................................79
Appendix 11. Relative proportion of gender in the study areas around Lake
Wamala ...............................................................................................................80
Appendix 12. Relative percentage of marital status of the sampled
respondents around Lake Wamala ..................................................................80
Appendix 13. Relative Proportion of the education level of the respondents
around Lake Wamala ........................................................................................81
Appendix 15. Relative proportion of community adaptation strategies in
each sampled zone around Lake Wamala .......................................................82
Appendix 16. Relative proportion of government strategies to mitigate and
adapt to climate change in each specific zone around Lake Wamala ..........83


LIST OF ACRONYMS
COP: Conference of Parties
CPUE: Catch per Unit Effort
FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization
GHGs: Green House Gases
GNF: Global Nature Fund
GoU: Government of Uganda
ICBD: Increased Cost of Doing Business
INC: Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IUCN: International Union for the Conservation of Nature

KEA: Kikandwa Environmental Association.
LVFO: Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization
MAAIF: Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries
MWE: Ministry of Water and Environment
NaFIRRI: National Fisheries Resources Research Institute
NAPA: National Adaptation Program for Action
NEMA: National Environment Management Authority
NWP: National Wetlands Program
SPI: Standard Precipitation Index
UBOS: Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UNDP: United Nations Development Program
UNEP: United Nations Environment Program
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
USAID: United States Agency for International Development
WMD: Wetlands Management Department


LIST OF TABLES.
Table 4-1: Percentage of respondents for each area……………………………………..22
Table 4-2: Relative Proportion of the impact of climate change on livelihood………27
Table 4-3: Relative Proportion of the impact of climate change on specific area wetland
resources………………………………………………………………………………29
Table 4-4 Relationship between wetland resource losses on livelihoods due to climate
change….…………………………………………………………………………...29
Table 4-5: Proportion of community adaptation strategies……………………………33
Table 4-6 Proportion of critical areas in need of government support for
adaptation……34
Table 4-7 Proportion of critical occupations in need of government support for
adaptation…………………………………………………………………………...35

LIST OF FIGURES/GRAPHS
Figure 2-1: Current and Projected Temperature changes in Uganda……………….…13
Figure 3-1: Spatial extent of Lake Wamala and the sampled villages …………………17
Figure 3-2: Climate change impact assessment…………………………………….....18
Figure 4-1: Relative Percentage of households in the sampled areas………………..22
Figure 4-2: Relative proportion of community occupation (s) in the sampled areas…....23
Figure 4-3: Relative percentage of local people perception on climate change……….24
Figure 4-4: Frequency of wet and dry months along Lake Wamala……………………25
Figure 4-5: SPI Series assessing the drought occurrence in relation to the probability of
observed total annual rainfall changing from average…………………………………25
Figure 4-6: Relationship between Lake Depth and inter-decadal annual rainfall……….26
Figure 4-7: Impact of climate change on community occupation…………………..….27
Figure 4-8: Relative proportion of the effect of climate change on wetland resources…28
Figure 4-9: Relative proportion of the causes of increased wetland resources loss…...30
Figure 4-10: Relative proportion of the risks associated with climate change on local
communities…………………………………………………………………………...31
Figure 4-11: Relative impact of climate vagaries on specific occupation……………….32
Figure 4-12: Proportion of community adaptation strategies…………………………....33
Figure 4-13: Relative proportion of government strategies to help local communities’
adaptation and mitigation……………………………………………………………...35
Figure 5-1: Lake Wamala and its changing spatial extent……………………………..37
Figure 5-2: Variations in Lake Wamala Water Levels………………………………...38
Figure 5-3: Exposed Water gauges due to reducing water level………………………..39
Figure 5-4: Exposed Lacustrine swamp beds due to drought………………………….41


Figure 5-5: Inter-relationship and alternative strategies for sustainable wetland resource
management and livelihood ………………………………………………48

LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendix 1. A semi-structured questionnaire for data collection………………………72
Appendix 2. Data entry and data analysis sheet and format…………………………….81
Appendix 3. Selected demographic characteristics of Uganda…………………………82
Appendix 4. Annual minimum and maximum Temperatures ( OC) extracted from
Mubende Station, data from 1990-2012………………………………………………...83
Appendix 5. Annual Rainfall pattern (mm) recorded at Mubende Weather Station around
Lake Wamala, 1990-2011……………………………………………………………....84
Appendix 6. Monthly Average Rainfall (mm) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake
Wamala, 1990-2012…………………………………………………………………….84
Appendix 7. Decadal average temperature (OC) from Mubende Station around Lake
Wamala, 1990-2012………………………………………………………………….…84
Appendix 8. Historical Monthly Temperature (OC) changes for Mityana District……..85
Appendix 9. Annual mean minimum and mean maximum temperature change (OC) time
series analysis for Mubende weather station near Lake Wamala from 1990-2012…….86
Appendix 10. Annual average rainfall changes (mm) and Standard Precipitation Indexes
(SPI) for Mubende Weather Station near Lake Wamala from 1990-2012……………..87
Appendix 11. Relative proportion of gender in the study areas around Lake Wamala…88
Appendix 12. Relative percentage of marital status of the sampled respondents around
Lake Wamala……………………………………………………………………………88
Appendix 13. Relative Proportion of the education level of the respondents around Lake
Wamala………………………………………………………………………………89
Appendix 14. Relative percentage of the impact of climate change on wetland resources
around Lake Wamala…………………………………………………………………..89
Appendix 15. Relative proportion of community adaptation strategies in each sampled
zone around Lake Wamala…………………………………………………………….90


Appendix 16. Relative proportion of government strategies to mitigate and adapt to

climate change in each specific zone around Lake Wamala…………………………..90
Appendix 17: Annual rainfall trends around Lake Wamala……………………………..92
Appendix 18: Inter-decadal changes in temperature around Lake Wamala…………......92
Appendix 19: Selected Demographic characteristics of Mityana district……………..93
Appendix 20: Mityana District sub-counties demographic statistics…………………..94
Appendix 21: Mityana District; counties and sub-counties……………………………95


ABSTRACT
It is common knowledge that global coastal wetlands are critical natural resource zones
that avail many benefits to threshold environs and local communities. However, wetlands
are facing catastrophic degradation severely putting at risk their noteworthy ecological
goods and services that determine human functions. Surprisingly, the underlying causes
of such appear subjective! The coastal wetland zones of Lake Wamala are experiencing a
noticeable shoreline retreat that has led to loss of wetland resources. This henceforth calls
for sustainable wetlands resource management by clearly dissecting and understanding
the prime cause of such losses. This research used community based participatory
surveys/interviews to capture individual stakeholder perceptions and knowledge on
wetland resources, what causes their degradation, impacts and mitigation strategies in
order to assess areas of consensus and diverging interests amongst stakeholders to
develop feasible and sustainable management options. The research focused on 6 local
areas along Lake Wamala to generate information on the impact of climate change on
wetland resources. Results point out that increased climate change and some
anthropogenic drivers have grossly affected wetland resources and livelihoods. The study
also highlights that there is a disjointed and ineffective framework to cope up or mitigate
risks from wetland resource loss. This calls for immediate and comprehensive
remediation strategies such as co-management, developing of shared management and
interests through local community and government partnership and collaboration in line
with practical national frameworks so as to boost awareness and knowledge sharing on
the ecological-human benefits of wetlands in the face of climate change.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction to the study
Currently, there is increasing consensus that climatic change poses a great challenge
not only to livelihoods but also wetland resources’ conservation, management and
restoration (Erwin, 2009), both at local, regional and macro mega-watershed levels
and surrounding environments (Wheeler, 2013). This has made global climate change
models and projections regard anthropogenic drivers as the main threat to the removal
of species, integrity and interlinks of ecosystems both marine and terrestrial (Hulme,
2005). This is irrespective of the fact that habitat responses to different stressors vary
at various levels. It’s apparent that the increasing temperatures for instance will affect
coastal wetland biota due to changes in rainfall and sea level especially in the tropics
(Day et al, 2005). Despite the existence of literature on wetland resources, ecological
niches and their interdependence with climate conditions, wetland responses to
climate change is still poorly understood as most climate change impact models focus
on anthropogenic stressors (Clair et al., 1997). The critical role and functioning of
such ecosystems is inaccurately and minutely predicted in case of extreme climate
change scenarios; making it prevalent to assess the relationship by which climate
changes affect wetland resources (McAllister , 1997). The Inter-Governmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014)and Conference Of Parties (IPCC, 2013) highlight
the urgency at which such ecosystems are likely to be threatened. This has coincided
with a significant degradation of marine and fresh water resources and biota with farreaching impacts on ecosystem functioning, human health and welfare(IPCC, 2007).
Though historical natural variability has made species and biota adapt to such
evolutionary patterns (Harley and Miner, 2006), current trends project high level
proximal impacts which could adversely alter feedback cycles making the future of
wetland resources and ecosystems precisely difficult to predict (Larsen, 2005). The
simulated linear temperature trend (1905-2005) of 0.74oC (0.56-0.92) is two times
larger than that of the past century (1800-1900) which threatens ecosystems,
atmospheric functioning and human livelihoods (IPCC, 2007).

Current climate change projections predict an increase in temperature by 1.5-2oC and
no doubt, increasing temperature and precipitation changes are increasingly
considered as the main threats to wetland functioning and distribution (Ludena et al.,
2015). This means that components of wetlands that are resources for human
consumption directly or indirectly are at risk as they provide water for drinking, fish,
fruits, weaving and thatching raw materials, peat and fuel wood as their availability
relies on the health of wetland ecosystems (Abila, 2002). Statistics estimate that
wetland resources (goods and services) are valued at 15.5 trillion USD/year (Costanza
R., 1997)
However, current trends in wetland cover and degradation and the less attention given
to wetlands has availed impetus and a decisive knock-down effect to increasing
vulnerability of wetland resources and communities therein to adverse climate change
impacts (Abila, 2002). This sporadic loss is likely to accelerate global terrestrial
carbon as wetlands will not be able to sequence and absorb the previous range of 1020% of the sequential cycle (Sahagian, 1998) as well as the sustainable continuity of
living earths systems (IPCC, 2014). The main parameters that have been identified as
great drivers of climate change are temperature and precipitation (especially rainfall)
variations such as in the tropics (Shresta et al., 1999)as such parameters speed up
natural/environmental losses to biota, water and vegetation (Harley, 2006). This has
not only increased socio-economic losses but also the frequency of natural disasters
along coastal and shoreline zones. The sporadic temperature increase has not only
affected micro-climate dynamics and increasing risks to local community livelihood
but also ecosystems therein like wetlands. Johnson et al (2005) anecdotes that,
“Current and future climate changes will affect wetlands in two fundamental ways:
the number of functioning wetlands (and their functional capacity) within most ecoregions will decline and the geographic location of certain types of wetlands will
shift.’’
This is in tandem with simulations and studies around Lake Wamala that showcase a
gradual shift in lake waters and surrounding wetlands by about 80 meters since 1960’s
(Musinguzi et al., 2016). The semi-permanent wetlands in such coastal/shore land

zones function based on water levels and any increase in temperature will likely lead
to water loss, vegetation and peat land loss as well as the living species like mudfish
(Wiles, 2005). The losses are projected to be indifferent across the spectrum of
resources depending on spatial location and adaptability (Root et al., 2003). Some
areas are likely to experience positive temperature and precipitation shifts than others
which will also determine the quality and quantity of wetland resources (Day et al.,
2005) depending on the type of wetland based on the Ramsar categorization (Ramsar,
1971) . Irrespective of the spatial extent of the impact, it’s apparent that climate
change will affect wetland resources especially in the developing world where
adaptation is low. Coincidentally, most research and literature subjectively considers
anthropogenic aspects as the main drivers of coastal wetland loss (Seguin et al., 2006).
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Report (UNFCCC,
2010) relates climate change directly or indirectly to anthropogenic activities that alter
the composition of the global atmosphere. The vulnerability of coastal zones and
resources to climate change is accelerated by human populations therein that increases
exposure and sensitivity (Ludena et al., 2015) especially in areas below 1-1.5 meters
from the shorelines (Fussel, 2010).
Despite the long held belief and literature relating extreme wetland resource loss to
anthropogenic factors, recent analysis indicates that climate change parameters are the
most likely threats to wetland resource losses (Fischer, 2016). Ecological effects on
coastal ecological systems are increasingly apparent due to climate change. This is
highlighted by several literature that;
“Changes in climate will lead to the intensification of the global hydrological cycle,
shifts in the geological distribution of wetlands, altered tidal ranges in bays and
estuaries, changes in sediment and nutrition transport, increased coastal flooding and
in turn increased vulnerability of some coastal populations” (IPCC, 2014).
This means that though there is increasing understanding of wetland management
systems, such systems will be impractical without taking into account climate change.

Today, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change especially in rural
areas of Uganda due to few alternative activities and adaptation strategies


(Environmental Alert, 2010). Local communities and people are at a face-off with the
direct impacts of climate change, owing to their reliance upon and close relationship
with the environment and its resources that exacerbates the difficulties already faced
by vulnerable communities (UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, 2007).
This is commensurate with the Ugandan scenario that coincides with increased
vulnerability of ecosystems and livelihoods due to climate change. The (USAID,
2012) report for the past 35-25 years highlights that the magnitude of observed
warming since 1980’s is large and unprecedented indicating a 2+ deviation from the
past climate norm. This is in tandem with the (National Wetlands Program, 2008)
report that observed a fall in rainfall totals from 1960-2009 and a projected increase in
temperature by 1-1.5oC; with devastating impacts on uni-modal rainfall distribution of
less than -150 to -50 mm between 2010-2039 across the country and this is projected
to increase the mean temperatures between 1-3.1oC by 2060. The (USAID, 2012)
report acknowledges that changes in climate have increased on vulnerability of
environmental resources and livelihoods. This has not only increased on catastrophic
hazardous events like flash floods, landslides, and decline in water levels but also
affected wetland cover and resources therein. Since 1994, Uganda has lost about
11,268 square kilometers of wetlands down from 37,575 square kilometers-a 15%
decrease of the nation’s land area (199,810 square kilometers) to about 26,308 square
kilometers in 2009,(Turyahabwe et al., 2013) representing a 30% loss in wetland
cover (WMD, 2009). Recent studies about wetland loss and perception to change in
Uganda indicate a correlation between wetland resource loss and associated risks and
hazards to climate change (UNDP/UNEP, 2009).
Around lake Wamala, the unpredictable climate changes manifested by precipitation
shifts, floods, and drought have coincided with increase in floating vegetation,
decrease in fish stocks, size and quantity, increase in wetland fires, reduction in sea

level and seasonal drying and flooding of swamplands like in Magongolo, Nkonya
and Naama villages (NEMA, 2013). Since 1990, about 80 meters of Lake Wamala
coastal waters have been lost due to progressive drying (Global Nature Fund, 2013)
and despite the historical perceptions about the lake retreats and advances in water


levels, the lake and resources therein might be lost if current climate change scenarios
are not mitigated (National Wetlands Program, 2008). It’s upon this background that
the study will identify the impact of climate change parameters especially rainfall and
temperature variations on coastal wetland resources around lake Wamala, identify the
causes and associated impacts so as to come up with coping and mitigating measures
that tame such impacts that devastate the already fragile resources and local
communities therein. This is also based on the fact that there are limited vulnerability
assessments done in Uganda and around lake Wamala to communicate urgent and
immediate adaptation interventions necessary to mitigate adverse effects of climate
change (Twinomugisha, 2005).
1.2 Statement of the problem
Currently, it is no longer theoretical that the impacts of climate change are the
pinnacle to the increase in ecosystem and livelihood vulnerability and if the trend
continues unabated, most resources are predicted to become extinct. Unfortunately,
most current literature and scientific researches focus on predictions of impacts at a
macro-level ignoring micro-levels where most resources and livelihoods are more
prone to risks of climate change due to their direct reliance on local resources
especially in environmentally sensitive areas for survival. Conversely, though some
eco-assessment research has been carried out around Lake Wamala; most of the
reports focus on people’s perception, water and food security in relation to climate
change. This has made it imperative to interlink climate change impacts to coastal
wetland resources as most local communities therein rely directly or indirectly on
wetland resources around the lake for their livelihood.
Global studies and reports underline the impact of anthropogenic drivers in increasing

greenhouse gas concentrations that scale up environmental disasters which has
expectedly increased the cost of natural disasters with a 15 fold increase from 19501990’s (IFRC, 2001). However, this analysis practically ignores the direct impact of
climate change on coastal resources that greatly determine human activity and welfare
hence creating an avenue for more insightful local community research to synthesize
the impact of climate change on coastal wetland resources onto which local


communities derive livelihood to foster feasible discussions that try to reduce
vulnerability and usher in adaptive and mitigating measures for sustainable socioenvironment management.
This is envisaged from the fact that climate change is a complex phenomenon that
highly impacts local ecosystems and livelihoods. This avails a pivot upon which
research on coastal wetland resources loss can be undertaken to reduce on impacts
accruing from climate change like: increasing temperatures, rainfall reduction and
variability, flooding, sea level changes, and coastal wetland sedimentation that have
adverse impacts on wetland health and peoples livelihoods. This is evidenced in this
footage

/>
The

changing

ecosystem in Lake Wamala has been classified as one of the climate change hotspots
in Africa (UNEP, 2009).
1.3 Justification of the study
Wetland resources and habitats are a prime source of livelihood to coastal
communities (Armitage, 2017); however, changing climate and its variability in
Uganda is currently affecting the availability of wetland resources where people
derive income and sustenance (Sewagudde, 2009). This dilemma forms part of this
thesis on the impact of climate change on wetland resources and specifically examines

how such changes have affected local livelihoods along Lake Wamala. The
information from this study will act as a benchmark for devising strategies to cope up
with climate change along coastal areas of closed inland water bodies such as Lake
Wamala. This will help in guiding local, regional, national and international policy
makers in clearly devising strategies that promote sustainable wetland resource
management and climate change adaptation.
1.4 Objectives
1.4.1 Overall objective

• The general objective of the study was to examine the impact of climate change
on wetland resources and livelihoods along Lake Wamala in Mityana District,
Uganda.


1.4.2 Specific Objectives

• Identify the frequency and magnitude of repeated variations in weather
patterns.
• Establish relationships between current climate changes and wetland
resources.
• Examine and assess the risks and vulnerability of wetland resources as a
result of climate change and its impact on livelihood.
• Identify and suggest strategies to cope with and adapt to the changing
climate patterns.


CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
Most climate change impact scientific research reports and studies on ecosystems
focus on anthropogenic drivers to such change. This fosters the need to continuously
synthesize climate change analyses to relay its impact on coastal wetland resources

that are a home to several vulnerable ecosystems as well as human beings and their
livelihood.
2.1 Climate Change/Global Warming and Manifestation
Though there is consensus about global warming, the definition of climate change, its
frequency and magnitude and perception varies.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2010)
defines climate change as:
‘The change in climate attributed directly and indirectly to human activity that alters
the composition of global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural variability,
observed over comparable time periods’.
To highlight the urgency of climate change and its threats, UNFCCC in partnership
with the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) in 1992 adopted the need to
mitigate climate change as a priority stipulated in Article 1 of the convention
(Twinomugisha, 2005). Though the definition mainly highlights anthropogenic drivers
as the main pivot to climate vagaries, there is increasing oversight that climate change
represents significant variation in micro and macro weather patterns and variability
maybe due to natural processes or drivers that alter the functioning of the atmospheric
and terrestrial land-use patterns (IPCC, 2001); (Sharma, 2009).
Current global temperatures are increasing at an estimated rate of 0.3 0C to 0.60C since
the late 1800’s and it has sporadically increased since the 1960’s by about 0.20C to
0.30C (Xiaodong & Baode, 2000) making the sustainability of ecosystems and
livelihoods more vulnerable.
Current literature acknowledges that there is and has been unprecedented warming
since the 1950’s (IPCC, 2014) with current estimates being nearly 0.4-0.80C than the
last century and current projections predict that there is a likely increase by a further


1.50C and highs of over 40C in some areas (USAID, 2012). This warming has
implications on several additional abiotic variables for example ocean expansion and
sedimentation in fresh water areas as warming trends are predicted to be stronger over

continental interiors than over the oceans; that will increase pressure gradients (Harley
and Miner, 2006).
This corroborated by the observed increase in global temperature due to increase in
greenhouse gas emission and concentrations from 280 Parts Per Million (PPM) in
1850’s to 379 PPM and if current carbon emissions continue unabated, emissions
might reach 970 PPM by 2100. This concern is highlighted in the Kyoto Protocol
accord (2005) that urges countries to reduce GHGs to 5.2% or less to achieve
sustainable development (UNFCCC, 2007). This outcry is supported by a myriad of
studies that draw conclusions that climate change sensitivity indices indicate a
remarkable increase in temperature and negative and uncertain precipitation variations
(Ludena et al., 2015) and summarize that poor countries are more vulnerable than
developing countries (Tol et al, 2002) though some literature predicts drastic
outcomes that developed countries might be more vulnerable and sensitive to climate
variability than developing countries in terms of inherent resistance to damage and
other calibration parameters like along the East Coast of USA (Diffenbaugh et al.,
2007). Irrespective of the extent and magnitude of change, its prevalent that climate
change will have drastic impacts on the earth’s systems and the impact of global
warming is widespread (Meehl et al., 2005). These effects; though they might vary in
distribution and abundance over space and time, are having and will continuously
have great effects on human populations, environmental resources and communities
(Harley, 2006). Some of the implications include sea level change, increased
atmospheric carbon concentrations, loss of marine and terrestrial ecosystems and
potential changes in the biogeochemical feedback cycles of organisms (IPCC, 2001,
Larsen, 2005). The potential impacts of climate change on wetland resources are
drastic as wetlands avail critical values that aid sustainable development (Bergkamp
and Orlando, 1999). Wetland resources perform a myriad of ecosystem functions in
form of goods and services that satisfy human needs(De Groot, 1992). These services
are grouped as: regulation, provision of habitats, production and provision of

information (Bergkamp, 1999). Maintaining wetlands and capitalizing on such values
can be a valuable incentive and alternative to disruption activities that degrade
wetlands and ecosystems (Costanza, 1997). Unfortunately, climate change and its
impacts will degrade such services and goods as they hamper with waterfowl that are
dependent on wetlands, habitats therein and desertification processes irrespective of
the fact that such projections have some degree of uncertainty (Frederick, 1997). The
ability of wetland ecosystems to adapt will be highly reliant on the rate and extent of
changes in precipitation, evaporation, run off, as well as the intensity and frequency of
events like droughts, fires, floods and sedimentation (Murkin et al, 1997).
Continuous changes in climate are off-setting and are likely to off-set increased risks,
and hazards making people and resources therein more vulnerable. The
conceptualization of vulnerability to climate change is controversial making its
description difficult.
Watson (1996) relates vulnerability to the extent to which climate change may damage
a system (its sensitivity) and its ability to cope with new conditions. On the contrary,
(Cutter et al, 2000) identify a three (3) factor typology to highlight vulnerability
including: risk of exposure to hazards, capability for social response and attributes of
places including geo-location. Nevertheless, consensus exists that vulnerability is a
function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system to climate change
and its associated threats. Future vulnerability will not only depend on climate change
but also the type of development path of a given country that must be commensurate
with sustainable development to minimize negative environmental impact and socioeconomic lifestyles.
The UN Permanent Forum on International Issues Report (2007) reports that climate
change is a function of:
• Exposure to climate vulnerability and change; which refers to the degree of
climate vulnerability and change that an entity (country, community, individual
or ecosystem) experiences like temperature rise vis-à-vis drought.


• Sensitivity to climate shocks and stresses; which are an assessment of the

amount of impact climate factors have on an entity like land-use and
geographical conditions.
• Adaptive capacity, which describes the ability of the entity to manage the
negative impacts and take advantage of any opportunity that, arises. Adaptive
capacity depends on physical resources, access to technology and information,
varieties of infrastructure, institutional capacity and capability and the
distribution of resources (Tol, 2007)
The above tenets underscore the focus of UNFCCC (2002) that tries to identify the
most vulnerable countries to climate change (Yohe, 2002). Article 17 of the
Marrakesh accords concludes that most countries are now vulnerable to climate
changes and this calls for adaptive capacity.
This principle envisions the development of practical models and measures to avert
the diverse and adverse impacts of climate change and has led to the development and
formulation of scientific tools to address broad implications of land surface
interactions within the climate system for policy making. However, despite such tools,
some micro and extensive adaptation options are not still fully understood (IPCC,
2006), despite the fact that adaptation and mitigation can reduce vulnerability. In fact,
current observations correlate that climate changes are likely to off-set uncommon
losses in terrestrial wetland resources(Kates, 2000).
Climate change is one of the main natural challenges today especially in the
developing economies in Africa and Asia (IPCC, 2014). Most recent studies in open
water lakes and main water bodies in Africa have indicated increased warming of
lakes such as Lake Victoria and Albert in Uganda (Sitoki et al.2010). However, most
of the study focus was on the physiology and chemical conditions of such lakes for
example circulation dynamics, nutrient loading and recycling and less on wetland
resources such as fishes. The fact that climate elements especially rainfall and
temperature change lead to alteration of the physical-chemical dynamics of freshwater
lake ecosystems means that such changes can influence aquatic life and habitats,
productivity, and fishes with their related characteristics (Badjeck et al. 2009).