Vulnerability to saline intrusion and adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in the mekong delta of vietnam

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION
OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN
THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

NGUYEN HUU TRI

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR
THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCE STUDIES)
FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES
MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY
2016

COPYRIGHT OF MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY


Thesis
entitled

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION
OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN
THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

…………………………………
Mr. Nguyen Huu Tri
Candidate

…………………………………
Assoc. Prof. Sansanee Choowaew,
Ph.D. (Environmental Planning)

Major advisor

…………………………………
Lect. Duong Van Ni,
Ph.D. (Wetland Ecology)
Co-advisor

…………………………………
Lect. Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol,
Ph.D. (Ecology)
Co-advisor

……………………………………
Prof. Patcharee Lertrit,
M.D., Ph.D. (Biochemistry)
Dean
Faculty of Graduate Studies
Mahidol University

…………………………………
Assoc. Prof. Nathsuda Pumijumnong,
Ph.D. (Natural Science)
Program Director
Doctor of Philosophy Program in
Environment and Resource Studies
Faculty of Environment and Resource
Studies
Mahidol University

Thesis
entitled

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION
OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN
THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM
was submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies, Mahidol University
for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Environment and Resource Studies)
on
July 28, 2016

………………………………………….
Mr. Nguyen Huu Tri
Candidate

………………………………………….
Assoc. Prof. Le Anh Tuan,
Ph.D. Applied Biological Sciences and
Engineering
Chair

………………………………………….
Assoc. Prof. Sansanee Choowaew,
Ph.D. (Environmental Planning)
Member

……………………………………
Lect. Duong Van Ni,
Ph.D. (Wetland Ecology)
Member

………………………………………….
Lect. Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol,
Ph.D. (Ecology)
Member

……………………………………
Prof. Patcharee Lertrit,
M.D., Ph.D. (Biochemistry)
Dean
Faculty of Graduate Studies
Mahidol University

………………………………………….
Assoc. Prof. Kampanad Bhaktikul,
Ph.D. (Civil and Environmental
Engineering)
Dean
Faculty of Environment and Resource
Studies
Mahidol University


iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I, myself, wish to express sincere appreciation to my major advisor, Assoc.
Prof. Dr. Sansanee Choowaew, who has taken care of me from the beginning to the end
of my study program. Without her help, the degree program and the dissertation could

not have been completed.
I would like to thank my co-advisors, Dr. Duong Van Ni and Dr. Kulvadee
Kansuntisukmongkol, and external chairman, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Anh Tuan, who also
gave much valuable advice and assistance toward the completion of my work.
Thanks to the 60th Year Supreme Reign of His Majesty King Bhumibol
Adulyadej scholarship of Mahidol University, the Faculty of Graduate Studies of
Mahidol University for Research Assistantship, and the PhD International Programme
of the Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies of Mahidol University, for financial
support during my Ph.D program.
Also thanks to the staff members of An Giang University for their help
during the fieldwork. Additional gratitude and sincere appreciation must go to the
authorities of the provinces, districts, and villages in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam,
whom I contacted for my data collection. I particularly appreciate the households of the
six study villages, who shared their time in supplying very useful information for the
research. Without their support, I could not have completed my study.
I am grateful to my family members for their support and encouragement
throughout my study. I specially thank my wife, Van Anh, my son, Minh Huy, and my
daughter, Minh Khanh, for their love and encouragement of my efforts throughout the
program and the preparation of this dissertation.
Finally, I expresses my appreciation to all of professors of the Ph.D.
Program in Environment and Resource Studies of Mahidol University, who shared
much of their experience with me in both formal and informal ways.

Nguyen Huu Tri


Fac. of Grad. Studies. Mahidol Univ.

Thesis / iv

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR
RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF
VIETNAM
NGUYEN HUU TRI 5637242 ENER/D
Ph.D. (ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCE STUDIES)
THESIS ADVISOR COMMITTEE: SANSANEE CHOOWAEW, Ph.D.
(ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING), DUONG VAN NI, Ph.D. (WETLAND
ECOLOGY), KULVADEE KANSUNTISUKMONGKOL, Ph.D. (ECOLOGY).
ABSTRACT
This thesis aimed at the insight of the vulnerability to saline intrusion and the
adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in different ecological zones of
the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The specific objectives were to analyze the impact,
adaptation and vulnerability to saline intrusion and evaluate adaptation options for rice
and fish farming households. Based on the interviews with 390 rice and fish farming
households, in An Giang, Can Tho, and Soc Trang–upstream, midstream, and
downstream provinces of the Mekong Delta, the study results revealed that the saltwater
intensively intruded inland during the dry season and seriously affected rice and fish
farming. It is not only rice and fish productivity that was affected, but household income,
the quality of natural resources and the environment as well. Fish farming was faced
with the most serious effects, the most vulnerable, and had the least adaptation options
compared to rice and integrated rice and fish farming. Households in all groups
developed adaptation options following the increasing degree of salinity, including (1)
changing the seasonal calendar, (2) using tolerant rice varieties and fish species, (3)
changing cropping patterns and farming practices, (4) applying integrated production
model, and (5) diversifying non-farm activities. The research recommended that
regional links and transfer of adaptation experience between downstream, midstream
and upstream provinces should be put in place for better preparedness, prevention and
mitigation in the context of future saline intrusion.

KEYWORDS:

SALINE

INTRUSION/

ADAPTATION

OPTIONS/

IMPACTS/
RICE AND

VULNERABILITY/
FISH FARMING

HOUSEHOLDS/ MEKONG DELTA/ VIETNAM

186 pages


v

CONTENTS

Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

iii

ABSTRACT (ENGLISH)

iv

LIST OF TABLES

viii

LIST OF FIGURES

xii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

xiv

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1

1.1

Background and Justification

1

1.2

Conceptual Research Framework

5

1.3

Research Objectives

7

1.4

Key Research Questions

7

1.5

Scope of Research

8

1.6

Research Originally and Expected Results

8

CHAPTER II

LITERATURE REVIEWS

10

2.1

Theories and Concepts

10

2.2

Climate Change in the World Context and Vietnam

18

2.3

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations

20

2.4

Vulnerability Assessment in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

29

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

36

3.1

Research Process and Steps

36

3.2

Scoping Problems

37

3.3

Analysis of Occurrence and Degree of Saline Intrusion

38

3.4

Identifying Research Sites

39

3.5

Identifying Target Population

41

3.6

Data Collection

43

3.7

Data Analysis

46

3.8

Developing and Evaluating Household Adaption Options

48

CHAPTER III


vi

CONTENTS (cont.)

3.9

Analytical Process

CHAPTER IV SALINE INTRUSION INTO THE MEKONG DELTA

49
51

OF VIETNAM: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
4.1

Introduction

51

4.2

Situation of Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

52

and at Research Sites in the Past
4.3

Situation of Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

53

and at Research Sites in the Present
4.4

Factors Enhancing Saline Intrusion

56

4.5

Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in the Future

62

4.6

Conclusion and Recommendation

66

IMPACT OF SALINE INTRUSION ON RICE AND FISH

67

CHAPTER V

FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF
VIETNAM
5.1

Introduction

67

5.2

Household Characteristics

68

5.3

Household Farming Activities and Economy

72

5.4

Impacts of Saline Intrusion on Rice and Fish Farming

77

Households
5.5

Determined Present and Future Impact Levels of

89

Saline Intrusion on Rice and Fish Farming Households
5.6
CHAPTER VI

Conclusion and Recommendation

96

ADAPTATION OF RICE AND FISH FARMING

98

HOUSEHOLDS TO SALINE INTRUSION IN THE
MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM
6.1

Introduction

98

6.2

Coping Capacity of Rice and Fish Farming Households

98


vii

CONTENTS (cont.)

6.3

Present Adaptive Capacity of Rice and Fish Farming

100

Households
6.4

Future Adaptive Capacity of Rice and Fish Farming

103

Households
6.5

Adaptation Methods of Rice and Fish Farming Households

105

to Present Saline Intrusion
6.6

Adaptation Methods of Rice and Fish Farming Households

114

to Future Saline Intrusion
6.7

Conclusion and Recommendation

CHAPTER VII VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND

115
117

ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING
HOUSEHOLDS
7.1

Introduction

117

7.2

Vulnerability of Rice and Fish Farming Households to

118

Present Saline Intrusion
7.3

Vulnerability of Rice and Fish Farming Households to

119

Future Saline Intrusion
7.4

Adaptation Options for Rice and Fish Farming Households to

120

Present and Future Saline Intrusion

7.5

Conclusion and Recommendation

CHAPTER VIII CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

132
133

8.1

Conclusion

133

8.2

Recommendations

134

REFERENCES

136

APPENDICES

149

BIOGRAPHY

186


viii

LIST OF TABLES

Table

Page

1.1

Vulnerability to climate change of difference regions of Vietnam

1

1.2

Estimation of sectorial annual investment and financial flow needed

5

by 2030 to cover costs of adaptation to climate change (billion
USD/year at present value of 2007)
2.1

Household and individual autonomous adaptation measures related

25

to climate stresses in Southeast Asia
2.2

Objectives and some selected targets of the Vietnam National Target

27

Program to respond to Climate Change between 2010 and 2015
2.3

Determining impact (Exposure x Sensitivity)

34

2.4

Determining vulnerability (Impact/Adaptive capacity)

35

3.1

Total number of households and sample size

43

4.1

The relationship between salinity and water level during dry season

52

in the Mekong Delta (1980-2013)
4.2

Tested 390 samples of soil and water salinity in research sites (2014)

55

4.3

Future projected climatic factors under different scenarios of climate

63

change for the Mekong Delta of Vietnam
4.4

Views of experts on factors enhancing saline intrusion in the

65

Mekong Delta of Vietnam

67

5.1

Age of household heads in three research sites

69

5.2

Education of household heads in three research sites

70

5.3

Key livelihood activities in three districts of An Giang, Can Tho,

72

and Soc Trang

72

5.4

Area and productivity of rice and fish farming in three research sites

74

5.5

Average household income from rice and fish farming in three

76

research sites in 2014


ix

LIST OF TABLES (cont.)

Table
5.6

Page
Areas of rice and fish farming affected by saline intrusion in dry

79

season 2014
5.7

Percentage of households facing with saline intrusion impact

79

5.8

The correlation between the degree of saline intrusion and the yield

81

of rice and fish in Soc Trang
5.9

The correlation between the degree of saline intrusion and the yield

81

of rice and fish in Can Tho
5.10

Comparison of rice and fish yield changed in between 2008 and

82

2014
5.11

The correlation between rice or fish yield and salinity level

83

5.12

Comparison of household’s income in 2008 and 2014 and the

84

percentages of household income loss
5.13

Comparison of land area for rice and fish farming in 2008 and 2014

86

5.14

Percentage of households received saline intrusion information

87

5.15

Sources of saline intrusion information received by surveyed

87

households
5.16

Household perception on the degree of saline intrusion impacts

88

5.17

Levels of indicators of exposure to saline intrusion

89

5.18

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of exposure indicators

90

5.19

Mean score of exposure indicators to saline intrusion in all three

90

research sites
5.20

Exposure level of rice and fish farming households to saline

91

intrusion
5.21

Levels of indicators of sensitivity to saline intrusion

92

5.22

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of sensitivity indicators

92

5.23

Mean score of sensitivity indicators to saline intrusion in all three

93

research sites


x

LIST OF TABLES (cont.)

Table
5.24

Page
Sensitivity level of rice and fish farming households to saline

94

intrusion
5.25

Determining impact level of rice and fish farming households at

95

present

5.26

Determining impact level of rice and fish farming households in

96

future
6.1

Coping capacity of rice and fish farming households to saline

99

intrusion
6.2

The percentage of rice and fish farming households having capacity

100

to cope with saline intrusion in all three research sites
6.3

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of exposure indicators

101

6.4

Mean score of adaptive capacity indicators to saline intrusion in all

101

three research sites
6.5

Adaptive capacity level of rice and fish farming households to saline

102

intrusion
6.6

Future adaptive capacity of rice and fish farming households (in

104

2030)
6.7

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion in all three research sites

106

6.8

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of rice farming households

106

6.9

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of fish farming households

109

6.10

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of integrated rice and fish

112

farming households
7.1

Vulnerability of rice and fish farming households to present saline

118

intrusion
7.2

Vulnerability of rice and fish farming households to future saline

119

intrusion
7.3

Adaptation options at household level in all three research sites

121


xi

LIST OF TABLES (cont.)

Table
7.4

Page
Adaptation options of rice farming group to saline intrusion in three

123

research sites
7.5

Adaptation options of fish farming group to saline intrusion in three

124

research sites
7.6

Adaptation options of integrated rice and fish farming group to

125

saline intrusion in three research sites
7.7

Adaptation options to vulnerability of saline intrusion at

128

community/district level
7.8

Adaptation options to saline intrusion at provincial level up to 2030

130


xii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure
1.1

Page
The incidence and severity of saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta

2

of Vietnam
1.2

The conceptual research framework of vulnerability, impacts and

6

adaptation to saline intrusion
2.1

Sustainable livelihood framework

14

2.2

The intrusion of salinity at 4ppt inland during the dry season of 2014

24

2.3

A hierarchy of vulnerability and vulnerability indices

29

2.4

Community-based vulnerability assessment framework

30

2.5

Saline intrusion impacts and vulnerability assessment process

32

2.6

Major components considered in the baseline and vulnerability

32

assessment process
3.1

Research process, steps, and methods

37

3.2

Electrical Conductivity (µS/cm) used to measure water and soil

38

salinity
3.3

Locations of three research sites

41

3.4

Analytical process

50

4.1

Water level in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in dry season 2014

53

4.2

The average monthly salinity in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in

54

2014
4.3

Household’s view on factors contributing to saline intrusion

56

4.4

Yearly rainfall tendency

57

4.5

Map of saline intrusion in April 2014 in the Mekong Delta of

58

Vietnam
4.6

Yearly air temperature change

59

4.7

Changes in yearly upstream flow and tide flow

60

4.8

Solar radiation yearly change

64


xiii

LIST OF FIGURES (cont.)

Figure

Page

5.1

Analytical framework

68

5.2

Age distribution of household heads in three research sites

68

5.3

Gender of household heads in three research sites

69

5.4

Percentage of household land use in three research sites

71

5.5

Proportions of income-generating activities of households in three

75

research sites
5.6

Percentage of rice and fish farming households at three research sites

78

facing with different impacts of saline intrusion
5.7

Cropping calendar changed in Soc Trang and Can Tho during past

85

five years
7.1

Five assets of community in An Giang

127

7.2

Five assets of community in Can Tho

127

7.3

Five assets of community in Soc Trang

127


xiv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

CC

Climate Change

DARD

Department of Agriculture and Rural Development

DFID

Department for International Development

DNRE

Department of Natural Resources and Environment

DOLISA

Department of Labor–Invalid and Social Affairs

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

ha

Hectare

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IR

International Rivers

IUCN

International Union for Conservation of Nature

km

Kilometer

m

Meter

MARD

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

MOLISA

Ministry of Labor-Invalid and Social Affairs

MONRE

Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment

MRC

Mekong River Commission

SI

Saline Intrusion

SLR

Sea Level Rise

SEA

Strategic Environmental Assessment

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

DSEWPAC

Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population
and Communities (Australia)

ICEM

International Centre for Environmental Management

WWF

World Wide Fund for Nature

USAID

The United States Agency for International Development

GEF

Global Environment Facility

xv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS (cont.)

UNISDR

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

ODI

Overseas Development Institute

SLF

Sustainable Livelihood Framework

USD

United States Dollar

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UN

United Nations

CAM

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation
Methodology

ICEM

International Centre for Environmental Management


Fac. of Grad. Studies. Mahidol Univ.

Ph.D. (Envi. & Resource Studies) / 1

CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background and Justification
Vietnam is one of the top disaster-prone countries in the world and the future
projected climate change will have significant effects on socioeconomic development
of the country. According to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), the coastal regions of Vietnam are most likely
to be impacted by sea level rise (SLR). The Ministry of Natural Resource and
Environment (2009) simulated a range of alternative climate scenarios for Vietnam and
stated that sea level would rise approximately 30 cm by 2050 and up to 75 cm by 2100.
Seventy percent of the country’s population live in areas subject to water-related natural
disasters (Ninh, 2007). According to the report on Economics of Adaptation to Climate
Change (EACC) in Vietnam of the World Bank Group (2010), the vulnerability to
climate change, especially to sea level rise and saline intrusion of households was
highest in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 Vulnerability to climate change of different regions of Vietnam

Region

North

North

-west

-east

Red

North

South

River

Central

Central

Delta

Coast

Coast

Central

South-

Highlands

east

Mekong
River
Delta

Storm

1

3

4

4

4

2

2

3

Flooding

1

1

4

4

4

2

2

4

Salinity

0

0

1

2

2

0

1

4

Sea level rise

0

0

2

2

2

0

3

4

Landslides

3

3

1

3

3

2

1

1

Drought

2

2

1

4

4

4

2

2

Average

1.2

1.5

2.2

3.2

3.2

1.7

1.8

3.0

(Source: Adapted from EACC (2010))
(Categories ranked from 0 to 4 (low to severe exposure))


Nguyen Huu Tri

Introduction / 2

The increasing sea level rise contributes considerably to the prevalence of
saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1 The incidence and severity of saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta of
Vietnam
(Source: Southern Institution for Water Resource Planning of Vietnam, 2010)

It was predicted that the sea level rise could expose around 45% of the area
to extreme salinization by 2030 (Pettengell, 2010). The salinity from 1ppt to 4ppt
encroached up to 60 km into the Mekong Delta. Nearly two million ha of rice land has
been affected by saline intrusion, threatening the national food security and affecting
millions of local people (Hanh and Furukawa, 2007; Hoc, 2009). Agriculture, natural
fisheries, and aquaculture are at risk. This ongoing trend has significant impacts on
millions of people who are very poor and live primarily on agricultural and aquatic
production. They have limited options to turn to other sources of income (Wassmann et
al., 2004). Over approximate 1.77 million hectare (ha) or about 45% of area of the


Fac. of Grad. Studies. Mahidol Univ.

Ph.D. (Envi. & Resource Studies) / 3

Mekong Delta in the dry season is strongly affected by saline intrusion (Tri, 2012). The
saline intrusion has led to the decrease in arable land and failure of crops (IPCC, 1990).
In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, there are more than 3.6 million ha of
agricultural land including 2.6 million ha of rice and fish farming and 0.54 million ha
of shrimp farming. The food production is not only for domestic consumption, but also
for export. Agricultural sector is providing food for nearly 18 million people,
approximately 27% population of the country, and contributes to over 90% of rice export
(Thanh et al., 2009). The Mekong Delta is extremely important to socioeconomic
development of Vietnam.
Agriculture remains one of the most important sectors in Vietnam,
contributing 24% to the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 30% to the total export
value and employing about 60% of the population. In the Mekong Delta, this sector
employs about 76% of the local population (Lensink and Nam, 2008). The Mekong
Delta contributes 45.8% to national agricultural food production, 50.5% of total paddy

production each year, and up to 80% of rice exports. Meanwhile, aquaculture production
in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam is contributing 60% of total values of national
aquaculture production (Be et al., 2007). However, nearly 4 million ha of agricultural
land and the population of 18 million living primarily on agricultural production are
suffering from the consequences of climate change and sea level rise (Carew-Reid,
2008; IUCN-Vietnam, 2010).
Agriculture and aquaculture have been considerably affected due to the
increased salinity in recent years. The saline intrusion has increasingly caused problems
to irrigation management, making it impossible to sustain the desired crop productivity
(Kirby and Mainuddin, 2009). The prevalence of salinity has implications to local poor
communities while the effective water management mechanism and existing pro–poor
policies do not sufficiently meet their livelihood supporting demands. They are actually
the most vulnerable as they have limited adaptive capacities and are more dependent on
water for food production and other economic activities. In addition, they do not have
necessary supports and additional inputs from outside sources to help change livelihoods
under climate change (Wassmann et al., 2004). They take risks themselves and any
failure of production investment will lead to the debts and poverty.


Nguyen Huu Tri

Introduction / 4

Consequences of saline intrusion are not only increasing pressure to
people’s livelihoods, but also leading to unstable food security. People’s livelihoods are
based on water resources of the Mekong River. Saline intrusion has significant effects
on the integrity of ecological systems in the Mekong Region, including aquatic species,
water resources, and livelihoods of millions of inhabitants dependent on aquaculture and
agriculture production. Studies showed that 70% of catches from the Mekong River
were migratory fish (International River, 2009). Due to sea level rise, the loss of

fisheries was estimated at 476 million USD/year, regardless of floodplain and coastal
fish catches (Mekong River Commission, 2010).
The vulnerability is based on the magnitude of impacts, resilience,
susceptibility and adaptive capacity (Kulpraneet, 2012). The capacity of adaptation to
sea level rise includes ability to change agricultural practices, develop desalination
techniques, improve drainage facilities, establish setback policies for new development
areas, and many others. There are numerous methods to adapt to sea level rise, and there
is no single set of adaptation that is universally appropriate. At a very basic level, the
success of adaptation depends on the flexibility and effectiveness of the measures, such
as the ability to meet objectives and local needs given range of future climate scenarios
(Smit and Pilifosova, 2001).
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2007)
estimated the global cost of adaptation to sea level rise (saline intrusion), particularly of
agriculture sector, at 14 billion USD annually for developed and developing countries
in 2030 (see Table 1.2).
The impacts of the saline intrusion on the household’s livelihood in the
Mekong Delta need thoughtful research. While many studies have been conducted in
the Mekong Delta, none was particularly centered on this issue. Besides, most people in
the Mekong Delta have not understood thoroughly about saltwater intrusion inland
(Renaud and Kuenzer, 2012). They, therefore, may not have right attitude to adaptation.
Most importantly, the process of salinization tends to be increasing at a significant pace
and many households have been deprived of capitals and properties that have been
invested in their production. Many of them have incurred mental and physical distress
since such loss seems to be irreversible. They also lack adequate capitals and capacity
to turn to other alternative livelihoods or access possible employment opportunities.


Fac. of Grad. Studies. Mahidol Univ.

Ph.D. (Envi. & Resource Studies) / 5

Table 1.2 Estimation of sectorial annual investment and financial flow needed by 2030
to cover costs of adaptation to climate change (billion USD/year at present values of
2007)
Sector

Global cost

Developed

Developing

countries

countries

Agriculture

14

7

7

Water

11

2

9

Human health

5

Not estimated

5

Coastal zones

11

7

4

Infrastructure

8-130

6-88

2-41

49-171

22-105

27-66

Total

(Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2007) cited in
Parry et al. (2009) and Nicholls (2007))

This research targeted at rice and fish farming households in the Mekong
Delta and aimed to understand how their livelihoods were vulnerable and adapted to
saline intrusion. The Mekong Delta is increasingly seen as hotpots of risk in the light of
growing frequency and magnitude of extreme events and sea level rise (saline intrusion),
but approaches for reducing the vulnerability and enhancing adaptation in the social and
ecological domains remain underemphasized (Birkman, 2006).

1.2 Conceptual Research Framework
The conceptual research framework was designed to connect all aspects of
study and outline possible causes and effects. It was adapted from the assessment of
impact and adaptation to climate change models of UNEP (2001), GEF (2007), and
IPCC (2007). The framework expressed the linkages of the impact of saline intrusion
(in the Mekong upstream, midstream and downstream), capacity of household and
community adaptation, the strategic adaptation options at all levels (e.g. local, provincial
and regional), and vulnerability (see Figure 1.2).
The research framework looked at the climate change threats in various
forms. The impact of saline intrusion was and is threatening the Mekong Delta,


Nguyen Huu Tri

Introduction / 6

especially in agriculture and aquaculture. Rice and fish farming, in particular, are the
most impacted sector. Effects on livelihoods of households in two major sectors–rice
and fish farming are different due to the distance along the Mekong River of Vietnam
(i.e. different impacts on upstream, midstream and downstream) leading to different
response, adaptations and vulnerability.

Macro and Micro Situation/Climate Change Threats
Past-present-future climate change
Climate change scenarios in the Mekong Delta

Saline Intrusion in the Mekong: Upstream,
Midstream and Downstream; Household Livelihood
Agriculture sector (rice farming and fish farming)

IMPACTS (I)
Exposure, sensitivity, physical,
ecological, socio-cultural,
socioeconomic impacts

COPING, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY,
ADAPTATION (A)
Households, communities, stakeholders
at all levels–local, national, regional

VULNERABILITY (V) = f (I, A)
FUTURE PROJECTED
IMPACTS
Economic/social/
environment potential
impacts

Household Adaptation Options
For preparedness, mitigation, adaptive capacity
building and knowledge transfer in the Mekong Delta

Figure 1.2. The conceptual research framework of vulnerability, impacts and adaptation
to saline intrusion (modified from UNEP (2001), GEF (2007) and IPCC (2007))


Fac. of Grad. Studies. Mahidol Univ.

Ph.D. (Envi. & Resource Studies) / 7

This research results would provide insight of impacts at household levels,
adaptive capacity which mainly focusing on the ability to maintain the production
systems, adaptation options at all levels, and finally the household vulnerability.
In the future, vulnerability of household livelihood will increase because of
the increasing saline intrusion. Vulnerability can be lowered if adaptation is higher.
Therefore, this research studied how rice and fish farming households in the Mekong
Delta of Vietnam would be vulnerable and how they would be able to adapt to the future
saline intrusion. Analysis of household adaptation options would enhance the
understanding how households would use and combine their resources to meet shortterm and long-term needs for mitigation and adaption. Perception and adaptive capacity
of households in different areas along the Mekong River (downstream, midstream and
upstream) would be important and useful for planners and policy makers to identify
programs and activities to improve livelihoods by increasing alternatives in order to
reduce livelihood vulnerability to saline intrusion.

1.3 Research Objectives
This research aimed at the insight of the vulnerability to saline intrusion of
and the adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in different ecological

zones of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The specific objectives were as follows.
1. Analyse the impact, adaptation and vulnerability to saline intrusion of
rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam.
2. Analyse and determine adaptation options for rice and fish farming
households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam under the light of future saline intrusion.

1.4 Key Research Questions
The following questions were investigated in relation to the specific
objectives:
1. How did and how will saline intrusion affect the socio-economics of the
rice and fish farming households in the past, present and future?


Nguyen Huu Tri

Introduction / 8

2. How sensitive are household livelihoods in different ecological zones of
the Mekong Delta of Vietnam to past, present and future saline intrusion?
3. How have the households adapted their livelihood to saline intrusion, and
what has been the adaptive capacity level?
4. What would be possible adaptation options for decreasing vulnerability
to saline intrusion of households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam?

1.5 Scope of Research
This research focused on the impacts of saline intrusion to rice and fish
farming households in three different parts represented by three provinces of the
Mekong Delta of Vietnam. These provinces locate in upstream (not yet affected by the
present saline intrusion), midstream (firstly affected by saline intrusion since 2002) and
downstream (already strongly and increasingly affected by saline intrusion since 1970s).

The research focused on two sectors of household livelihoods, i.e. rice and fish farming.
Three different groups of households were targeted, i.e. rice farming households, fish
farming households, and integrated rice and fish farming households. The analysis on
the impacts of saline intrusion was based on the data of the past five years (2008-2013),
and the present (2014). To determine the future impacts and household adaptation
options, the research used the climate change scenario of Vietnam for 2030 of the
Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE) combining with the primary
data collection at household level.

1.6 Research Originally and Expected Results
An integrated method to insight of vulnerability of rice and fish farming
households in the Mekong Delta to past, present and future saline intrusion was applied.
The innovated approaches included the vulnerability assessment methodology which
integrated Sustainable Livelihood Framework with the evaluation of household
adaptation options and the comparative analysis of upstream, midstream, and
downstream household impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability.


Fac. of Grad. Studies. Mahidol Univ.

Ph.D. (Envi. & Resource Studies) / 9

The research results will contribute to the development of adaptation
strategies to climate change, in particular, saline intrusion. The methodology taken into
account of socioeconomic and environment impacts using social science approach will
be applicable for other areas, nation-wide and region-wide. The results of this research
will also provide information and empirical evidence for political leaders and local
development planners as a basis for program development and policy formulation
related to sustainable household livelihood to prepare for saline intrusion.