Tài liệu Hydropower development and management docx

Hydropower development and management

1
ADB TA 4903-VIE
WATER SECTOR REVIEW PROJECT

STATUS AND ISSUES IN HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT


Prepared for: Final Report

Prepared by:

HA TIEN LUY
Energy & Hydropower Specialist

05 / March / 2008



A. Overview on hydro-power development status in national scope
1. Overview on Vietnam’s hydropower resources
-power resources are very plentiful and distributed widespread in national
scope. Vietnam is one of 14 countries which are rich in hydro-electric resources in the world.
Total hydro-power resources potential of more than 2200 mini, medium and large rivers (just
mention rivers with more than 10 km in length) in national scope is assessed as follows:
1.1. Theorical   -power resources is evaluated to be 300 billion
KWh, with capacity of 34.647 to 35.000 MW.
1.2. Techno-economic potential: Vietnam hydro-power is about 82-100 billion KWh with
capacity range from 18.600 to 20.000 MW as evaluated (about 30 to 33% of theorical
potential) in which:
- Large and medium hydro-power plants (the kind with capacity of the same or more than 30
MW/1 plant): as expected there are about 150 such plants, with total capacity around 18.000
 18.640 MW (about 90-93 % of total hydro-power teachno-economic potential).
See diagram 1.1 and table 1.1
- Small hydro-power stations (with capacity smaller than 30.000 KW/1 station): it is expected
to have total of capacity about 1.600 -2000 MW (about 7-10% of total hydro-power resource
economic-technological potential.

2. Operating and constructing hydro-power plants (to be put into operation in 2010)
-power plants
out 18 billion kwh. Therefore, more than
-technological potential was exploited.

Regarding pump storage hydro-electricity at present, 10 feasible economic-technical projects
with total machine capacity about 10.000 MW was planned (Son La has 7 projects, Hoa Binh:
1 projects, Ninh Thuan: 1 projects, and Binh Thuan: 1 project). Now, pre-feasible reports of
s is being made.

2

a . Hydro-electric stations put into operation ( to December 2007).
Total such hydro-power plants (to Dec. 2007) are: 4,457 MW. In which:
( i )- Total capacity of medium and large hydro-power plants which has come into operation
(to Dec., 2007) is 4.407MW including 12 plants : Hoa Binh ( 1920 MW), Thác Bà ( 108 MW),

(160 MW), Tr An ( 400 MW), Hàm Thu
và C
- 01.
( ii ).Total mini hydro-electri

-electric plants put
into operation.
( 1) Hoà Bình : 1920 MW ( 8x240 MW ), finished in 1994, yearly average electric yield is
8.160 GWh .
( 2 ) Thác Bà : 108 MW ( 3x36 MW), finished in 1972, maximum capacity is 120 MW, many


230 GWh .

250 GWh.
( 5 ) Yaly : 720 MW ( 4 x 180 MW ), finished in 
GWh


GWh
     
1000 GWh
( 8 ) Tr 
( 9 ) Hàm Thun : 300 MW ( 2x150 MW ), .


( 11 ) Th
( 12 ) C( 2 x 39 MW ), finished in 2004


Note :
   ai Ninh : 300 MW ( 2 x 150 MW), finished 12/2007 and officially generated



b. Hydro-electric plants with capacity of more than 30 MW/plant invested by EVN is
being constructed to go into operation in 2010 :
Total capacity of these hydro-electric project is about 6.500 MW.
At present, there are 19 hydro-electric projects invested by EVN have and have being
constructed, in which Son La hydro-electric project with capa
bigest, is expected to go into operation lately 2010 and finish totally in lately 2012. The
following is list of executing hydro-electric projects invested by EVN (in order from the North
to the South)
See tables TD.4- 01, Existing HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( at December 2007 )

3
- 02.List of constructing hydro-electric plants invested by EVN

Source : Master Plan for Electric Power Development in Vietnam 2005-2025 (MPEPD 6)
ch Phát trin lc Vit nam-n2006-2025 ( TSD 6 

c . Hydro-electric plants with N> 30 MW invested by other Vietnam’s companies (not
belong to EVN) follwing to BOT form. IPP is constructing to go into operation in the period
of 2006  2010 :
Total capacity : 920 MW .

4
B¶ng T§ 4 . 01. Các nhà máy thuỷ điện đã đưa vào vận hành
( tính đến thời điểm tháng 12 năm 2007 )
Table TD 4 – 01. Existing HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( at December 2007 )
No.
River Basin

River
Project
name

Province
Capacity
N ( MW )
Energy
E ( GWh )
1
Hong & Thai
Binh
Da
Hoa Binh

Hoa Binh
1920
8,160
2
,,
Chay
Thac Ba
Yen Bai
108
438
3
Kone
Kone
Vinh Son
Binh Dinh
66
229
4
Ba
Hinh
Song Hinh
Khanh Hoa
70
253
5
Se San
SeSan
Yaly
Gia Lai-
Kon Tum

720
3,589
6
,,
,,
Se San 3
Gia Lai
260
990
7
Dong nai
Be
Thac Mo
Binh Phuoc
150
589
8
,,
,,
Can Don
Binh Phuoc
78
290
9
,,
La Nga
Ham
Thuan
Lam dong-
Binh Thuan

300
957
10
,,
,,
Da Mi
Dong nai-
Binh thuan
175
590
11
,,
Da Rang
Da Nhim
Lam dong-
Ninh thuan
160
1,025
12
,,
Dong Nai
Tri An
Dong nai
400
1,726

A
Total Existing HydroPower Capacity of
National:

4,407
18,836


B
Total Electric Capacity of National :
11,717


A / B =
37,6%



In Basin Rivers :

1. Hong & Thai binh
2028
8,598

2. Kone
66
229

3. Ba
70
253

4. SeSan
980
4,579

5. Dong Nai
1263
5177
Note :
13. Small Hydropower ( in all country ) : N= 50 MW / E = ( about ) 200 GWh.
14. Total Existing HydroPower Capacity of National: N = 4,457 MW / E = 19,036 GWh.












5

Bảng TĐ. 4 - 02.
Các dự án thuỷ điện đang thi công (để đưa vào vận hành vào thời kỳ 2010-2015 )

do EVN làm chủ đầu tư ( Theo thứ tự từ Bắc vào Nam ) 

Table TD 4 – 02.
Constucting HydroPower Projects in Vietnam ( For use at Perio2010-2015 )
- Funded by EVN -
Số
TT
No.
Tên công trình
Project name
Tỉnh
Province
Công
suất
(MW)
Capacity
Chiều
cao
đập
(m)
Dam
High

Sông

River
LVS

River Basin

1
Tuyên Quang
Tuyên
Quang
342
93
Gam
Hồng +TB
2
Sơn La
Sơn La
2400
138
Da
Hồng +TB
3
Huội Quảng
Sơn La
520
130
Nam
Mu / Da
Hồng +TB
4
Bản chát
Lai Châu
220
104
Nam
Mu / Da

Hồng +TB
5
Bản vẽ
Nghệ An
320
136
Ca
Cả
6
Quảng trị
(Rào quán)
Quảng Trị
64
75
Thạch
Hãn
Thạch Hãn
7
Sông tranh 2
Quảng
Nam
190
95
Tranh
VuGia -
ThuBồn
8
A Vương
Quảng
Nam

210
82
Thu Bon
VG -TB
9
Sông Ba Hạ
Phú Yên
220
60
Ba
Ba
10
An Khê - Kanak
Gia Lai
173
64
Ba
Ba
11
Đồng Nai 3
Lâm Đồng
240
100
ĐồngNai
ĐồngNai
12
Đồng Nai 4
Lâm Đồng
270
128

ĐồngNai
ĐồngNai
13
Đại Ninh
Lâm Đồng
300
50
ĐồngNai
ĐồngNai
14
Bắc Bình
Bình
Thuân
33
25
Luy
SERC
15
Buôn Tou srah
Đắc Lắc
86
85
Serepoc
Serepoc
16
Buôn Kuop
Đắc Lắc
280
30
Serepoc

Serepoc
17
Srêpok 3
Đắc Lắc
220
60
Serepoc
Serepoc
18
PleiKrông
Kon Tum
110
71
Se San
Se San
19
Sê San 4
Gia Lai
330
74
Se San
Se San





6

Bảng TĐ 4 . 03 . Các dự án EVN đang triển khai công tác chuẩn bị đầu tư
( để đưa vào vận hành đến 2015 )

Table TD 4-03 . Studying & For use at2015 – Funded by EVN
Số
TT
No.
Tên công trình
Project Name
Tỉnh
Province
Công suất
N ( MW)
Capacity
Điện
lượng
E ( GWh )
Energy
Lưu
Vực
Sông
River Basin


River
1
Lai Châu
Lai Châu
1200

Hng +
TB
Da
2

Thanh Hóa
250

Mã
Chu
3
Sông Bung 2
Qun Nam
100


+ Thu Bn
Bung
4
Sông Bung 4
Qung Nam
145


+ Thu Bn
Bung
5
Sông Bung 5
Qung Nam

60


+ Thu Bn
Bung
6
Khe B
Ngh An
90

C
C
7
Sê San 4a
Giai Lai
60

SêSan
SêSan
9
Cộng :

1915






3. Role of hydro-electric development in Vietnam’s energy sector, economic

significance and contribution of hydro-electricity toward Vietnam’s GDP.
3.1. situation of carring out Electric power development in period V – period
2001- 2010 and perspective up to 2020 ( is abbreviated to MPEPD - 5 ; MPEPD-V ; or in
Vietnamese is TSD - 5 ; TSD - V ).
3.1.1. Compare real energy demands and one according to the forecast
TSD V is carried out in period 1998-1999, therefore, results forcasted (energy and capacity)
may be compared to real data in period 2000 - 2005. real values is higher than all methods of
forecast (high, low, medium) of TSD V. High case has smallest disparity between forecasted
value and real data . The reason is that TSD V was established at the time when economic
financial crisis happened in the area, therefore forecast of economic growth speed
(according to national wide and economic sectors in common), invested capital estimated as
well as reconstruction of industrial zones, export processing zones, large factories all are at
rather modest starting point. So, commodity energy and maximum additional charge capacity
are smaller than ones in reality during last years.
Comparision of energy demand forecasted results of TSD 5 with the fact of encreasing
energy demand (2000-2005) is shown in table 2.1.




7

Table 2.1. Forecasted results in TSD 5 in comparision with real value
Year
Commodity energy (GWh)
Maximum capacity (MW)
Reality
Forecast of TSD 5
Reality
Forecast of TSD 5

Low
case
Base
case
High
case
Low
case
Base
case
High
case
2000
22404

21394

4893

4477

2001
26851
23651
23844
24068
5655
4902
4942
4988

2002
30234
26165
26597
27112
6552
5381
5470
5576
2003
34841
28978
29706
30593
7408
5920
6069
6250
2004
39596
32103
33192
34550
8283
6510
6731
7006
2005
45603
36728

38797
40900
9255
7380
7802
8230

Statistical error calculated esults of energy forecasted result and the reality of 2000-2004
according to popular methods show that: in the field of energy, high method have smallest
error. Namely, high energy forecast method has average absolute error of 3041.7 GWh,

With regards to max capacity demand (Pmax), high method also has error in a permitted limit.
Namely, high method has mean absolute error of 898.8 MW, with Std.Dev of 354.6 MW.
Similarly, high method has mean relative error of 15.38% with Std.Dev of 3.99%
After assessing the high rise of additional charge in years of 1999 - 2001, economic and
envestment growth efficency due to timely and flexible managing methods of goverment,
early 2002, electric sector actively revised some contents of TSD V such as: 2005 electricity
demand was forecasted to be 53,4 TWh, 15% higher than the one of 46,5 TWh; and one of
2010 is 96,1 Wh, 23% higher than one of 78,5 TWh (high method of TSD V); push up some
resource projects and transfered and loaded networks ext. Therefore, during 2001 to 2005
electricity sector basically met highly increasing demands of electricity, serving economic and
social development. Table 2.4 and picture 2.1 show us sumarized, assessed and forecasted
numbers of electricity demand in TSD IV, V, and revised TSD V compared to reality of 1995-
2005 period.
One of big impacts which affected electricity demand recently is Asian Sou 
financial monetary crisis in 1997. it caused a decline in foreign investment and internal
industry during those years. However, to 2001-2005 period, industry and commercial service
sectors in the country thrived again, foreign direct investme
electricity demands in last decade reflected that. Through picture 2.1, we could see, if the
               

accurate while beginning TSD V was rather pessimistic. And, lastly, revises in TSD V is
timely.









8

Table 2.4. Electricity forecast for prodution according to TSDs compared to reality
Unit: GWh
year
TSD 4
TSD 5 -
High
case
TSD 5
revised -
Base
case
Reality
Reality /
TSD 5
revised (%)
1994

11837

1995
14548


14325

1996
16931


16948

1997
19631


19162

1998
22685


21646

1999
26118

23739

23749

2000
29971
26000
26594
27041
101.7
2001
34031
29145
30603
31137
101.7
2002
38469
32727
35179
36410
103.5
2003
43246
36649
40329
41273
102.3
2004
48384

41428
46412
47138
101.6
2005
53834
46554
53438
53462
100.0

Picture 2.1. sumarized, assessed and forecasted numbers of electricity demand
in TSD IV, V, and revised TSD V compared to reality of 1995-2005 period.

Note: Reality = thc t TSD 5 revised - Base case = 
TSD 5 - High case = TSD 5 PA cao TSD 4 = TSD 4
Hydroelectric demand in the period of 2001-2005 tends to be different as expected in TSD V.
While, it is forecasted that areas with fast increase in electricity demand are Ha Noi, Hai
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ¦íc
2005
in sn xut
(GWh)
thùc tÕ
TS§ 4
TS§ 5 PA cao
TS§ 5 HC PA c¬ së

9
Phong, Quang Ninh (development triangle), §a nang, Quang Nam - Quang ngai (economic
axis of Central region) Ho chi Minh city, Ba Ria-vòng Tau, §ong Nai, Hai Phong, in fact,
just increases upper 10%, Ha Noi 12,3%, Ho Chi Minh city 13% other areas increase faster
than estimated such as Vinh Phuc 21,2%, Hung Yen 25,5%, Bac Ninh 15,1%, Whole
Central region increase 14,8%, provincial region belonging to electricity company II increase
20,2% in average (Binh Duonng 34%, §ong Nai 18,2%, Ba Ria-Vung Tau 16,1%, Bac Lieu
18,9%, Binh Thuan 16,5% ). This change is assessed to be caused by following reasons:
            
2005 increased strongly, policy for attracting investment create favorable condition for


with the mechanism and lose the opportunity to attract investment

3.1.2. Assessment of electric resources development implimentation
Table 2.2 shows total capacity of electricity resources and amount of capacity put into use
2001  2005 according to electric plants. Of which, in some years, capacity of
       about 36% in
2005 and highest is 58% in 2001).
          -
economic development .
Speed of hydroelectric resource increase in 2001-2005 period is 14,3% per year, but still abit
lower than the speed of electricity increase for production (about 14,8%). The rate of electric
plants of IPP and BOT kinds increased quickly, from about 506 MW (ocupy 6-7%) in 2001 up
to 2439 MW (21,3%) in 2005.

Table 2.2. Total Install Capacity and further increase in period 2001-2005

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Type of
power
MW
%
MW
%
MW
%

MW
%
MW
%
Hydro
3883
57.90
4120
47.20
4120


43.40
4120
40.10
4120
36.00
Themal
( coal,oil )
845
12.60
1445
16.60
1445
16.10
1445
14.10
1445
12.60
Gas turbine +

Diesel
1477
22.00
2649
30.40
2649
27.90
3117
30.30
3444
30.10
IPP+other
506
7.50
506
5.80
1287
13.50
1596
15.50
2439
21.30
Total
install
Capacity
6711
100
8720
100
9501

100
10278
100
11448
100
Growth ( % )
6.6
29.9
9.0
8.2
11.4
Increase
Capacity
778
2009
781
777
1170









10

Picture 2.2. Energy resource capacity 2001-2005 and years Pmax





















Note : Hydro Themal(coal,oil) Gas turebine,Diesel & other Pmax




Diagram 2.2 . show that total capacity of resources in comparision with maximum additional
charge (Pmax)in years of 2001 2005.

In period of 2001 2002, rate of progress of electric plant put into operation basically timely
as planed of TSD V. Although years of 2003 2005, rate of progress of electricity resources
slower than the plan proposed in TSDV
In 2003 there are 2 projects which are slower than rate of progress:
- Gas turebine Phu My 4 is expected to be 2x150MW but untill 3/2004 just work. Up to
5/2004, steam turebine completed.
- Hydroelectric Can Don IPP is expected to be finnished 78MW but in practice it just
completed 1 unit 38,8MW in 12/2003
In 2004:
- Phu My 2.2 BOT gas turebine 2x250MW is used, because of problems in equipment, untill
2/2005, i
- coal thermal electricity Na Duong IPP just completed construction of 2 machine group of
50MW but progress for researching is lengthening. Up to 5/2005 just come into operation
whole 100MW
However, 2004, there is NM coal thermal electricity Formosa IPP 150MW put into operation
and be added works compared to the plan of TSĐ V

In 2005, according to TSĐV, as expected, works put into operation are: expanded coal
thermalelectric plant Uong bi 300MW, 1 unit of hydropower plant Se San 160MW, Coal
5655
6552
7408
8283
9255
0
2000
4000
6000
8000

10000
12000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
MW
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Thuỷ điện Nhiệt điện(Than,dầu) Tua bin khí, Diesel và khác Pmax

11
thermalelectric plant Cao Ngan IPP 100MW and Gas turebine of Phu My 2.1 expanded. In
reality, almost mentioned projects are late in progress rate: coal thermal electric plant Uong
Bi in April and stably operate from June,2006; Coal thermalelectric plant Cao Ngan just
number 1 unit completed in Dec.2005, number 2 unit completed in quater I, 2006; gas
turebine Phu My 2.1 is delayed to May 2006.
As recently report, 2006, there would have 1700MW not follows the plan
- The North has 600MW coal thermalelectric late in progress rate: Hai Phong thermalelectric I
is started construction in Nov.2005, as estimated, number 1 unit would come into operation
Oct.2008; number 2 unit would later than the firt from 4 to 6 months; Thermalelectric Cam
Pha I 300MW has just start work; besides, number 1 unit -114MW of Tuyen Quang
hydropower plant also untill 8-10/2007 just go into operation, 1 year later than the plan.
- The South contains upper 1000MW gas thermalelectricity later than the plan of TS§ V:
mixed gas turebine Ca Mau 750MW just start construction and expectedly 4/2007 just
completed gas turebine 2x250MW and 11/2007 just completly finnished; thermal electricity O
Mon I unit - 300MW also just been signed contract EPC and expected to go into operation in
quarterI II/2009.

In 2007, some electric resource woul be later than the plan of TS§ V such as thermalelectric
plant: Ninh Binh II  300MW, gas thermal electric plant Nhon Trach I; O Mon I machine group
2  300MW.
In addition, there are some hydropower plants such as A Vuonng I  210MW, §akDrinh
100MW, §aktih 72MW, Chu linh-Coc san 70MW, Na Le 90MW and some other mini and
medium plants are also late from 1-3 year as progress rate of the plan.

Table 2.3 Capacity of electric resource expected to put in to use in period 2005-2007 ( MW )
Incoming resource capacity
North
Centre & South
Total
- Expected to put in to use in period
2005-2007 ( expecte of TSD 5 )
2242
3257
5499
- Reality
668
2509
3177
- Later than the plan of TS§ V:
- 1574
- 748
- 2322

3.2. General assessment on implimentation of electric resources development
- Period of 2001  2005 basically electric resources developmetn basically satisfied the need
of socio and economic development with additional charge of high.
- 2006  2007estimatedly many electric works would be put into operation slowly due to
many reasons of lack of experience in contracting process of some projects, slow imcoming
eqipment, difficulties in compenstion, lack of investment capital, lenghening in capital
          
progress of project as registered schedule Electric demand is forecasted to continue
increase from15  17%/year, this situation would lead to the risk of servere unbalance on

- Slow original projects in the period of 2006  2007 woul come rapid-firely in 2008  2010,
that could cause a serries of other difficulties such as capital mobilisation, investment
procedul

12

3.3. General assessment of project implementation during the previous
phase of TSD V.
After nearly 5 years of implementation of TSD V, here are some general assessments:
- Demand for additional electrical power has increased rapidly and continuously, attaining the
highest level in the area.
- Since forecasted electrical demand in TSD V was lower than actual needs, EVN submitted
a number of corrections to the contents of the TSD V to the Government in 2002, this
included forecasted electrical production demand in 2005 from 53  55 billion kWh and in
2010 from 96,1  105 billion kWh. Actual need in 2005 was 5.5 billion kWh. In early 2005
(May), low power reserves combined with suddenly hot weather and the lowest water levels
in rivers of the Northern region for a number of years, many hydroelectric power plants such
as Hoa Binh and Thac Ba had to operate below dead level but still had shortages of power in

the North.
- Due to timely direction and management of the Government, together with great effort,
electrical suppliers essentially ensured a stable supply of electricity to meet the needs of
social-economic development; to contribute to general social-economic development; and
although electrical costs increased day by day, the actual increase in the price of electricity
was not significant. EVN sales in 2004 reached more than 33 million VND, double figures
from 2000. Profits maintained from 1.7 to over 2 billion VND, with an annual budget of 2.2 
2.7 billion VND
- Additional charge increases rapidly and constantly, reach the top level in the area.
- Electrical source rise from over 6000MW in 2000 up more than 11000MW in 2005, 1.9
times rising. There is average over new electrical source capacity 1000MW every years.
According to the plan of 2006  2008, the power reserved source is gong to be low,
especially the South is always in the shortages of power despite of 500kV line combined the
South-North by 2 circuits.
- 
total capacity of the hydroelectric plants in the whole country.
- The new power source is applied with modern technology, productivity is high, therefore it
helps to increase yield and decrease the price.
- The speed construction grid is quite fast. Total of quantity transition lines to late 2004
increase 1.3 times (22kV) and 1.6 times (110kV); total capacity of transformer stations rise
1.5 to 2 times in comparison with 2000. If implementation follows the plan of 2005, total of
quantity of lines 220kV rise 1.75 times; total lines 110kV rises 1.5 times in comparison with
2000.
- Electricity grid is designed that has good power reserves, good supply for the economic
centre. The national electricity grid has covered the whole of 64 provinces, 97% of districts,
96,6% of towns and more 90,4% of households. In electricity grid management the number
of breakdowns the 500kV system has decreased considerably and that on 200kV system has
decreased too, but not stable . Breakdowns on 110kV network are still high.
- General assessments about finance is to map TSD 4 and TSD 5 . According to the
committed roadmap, to make sure capacity of paying debt and demand of investment capital,

the electricity price should be about 7 cent/kWh from 1999. The rate of balance of capital is
not high, debt coefficient .
- Although the price now is just only about 4.91cent/KWh, with the attempt of the whole
electrical suppliers that aim to decrease maximum cost of business production (cost of loan
to moderate power gainings maximum, take amortization more than
10% but in reality to quickly withdraw capital, this helps to re-invest, therefore the electrical
suppliers by themselves balance their financial demand and investment capital in 1999-2004.
However, elements of input is getting higher, if electricity price increased roadmap is
continued, the electricity price can not meet the production cost and there are not capital to
re-invest for extension of electric system. Thus, there are not attraction for expanding the
generating power market.

13

4, Forecast areas with biggest hydropower potential in the period of 2010-2020,
considering 2025 and motivate activities toward the forecast .
4.1. Viewpoint of hydropower development planning
Starting from experience learned during process of carrying out studies and implementation of
last NEPDPs, some important issues is taken account in electricity planning VI are:
1. Develop equally electric resource capacity in The North, Central and Sourth, ensure providing
electricity to every interregional electricity system .
2. Ensure reasonable ratio among kinds of electric resources of primary energy fuel nationwide
and every region in every planned period:
The North focuses on hydropower and coal thermo-electric construction; the South develops
hydropower, gas and coal thermal electricity; the Central develops hydropower and after that
further develops gas thermo-electricity (if discover gas) and coal thermo-electricity.
- Continue to further develop thermal power plants in the South to take advantage of gas
resources and create condition for promotion of exploring more gas resource.
- Continue to take priority over hydropower construction, especially multipurpose projects:
against flood, providing water, generating electricity

- In other hand, it is necessary to pay attention on coal thermoelectric plants, includes ones in the
South.
3. In every region, take priority over developing thermo-electric resources located near additional
charge centre to reduce far transmit
4. It is necessary to carry out early invested projects to import electricity from Laos, Cambodia
and the South of China.
5. Take priority over developing new electricity projects such as mini hydropower plant (capacity
of 30MW), wind electricity, solar electricity, biomass electricity, geothermal electricity
6. Have measures to develop electric resources, take account of the risk and progress rate of
construction which may be later than as expected.
7. After finding a measure with low cost and ensure the norm of safety and reliance to provide
electricity, it needs calculate investment manually in planning period, then check feasibility of the
proposed measure of investment capital, balance in total investment capital of whole society.
8. in the future, EVN would just manage essential electric plants in electric system such as Son
La, Lai Chau hydropower plants, nuclear electric plants almost other electric plants would be
managed by domestic and foreign joint-stock and private companies (IPP, BOT, ). A
competitive electric market would gradually be formed and develop. Therefore, electric resources
planning need clarify kinds of thermal electric plants in electric system and operation measure
following additional charge diagram so that the government could regulate importance, specific
tasks as well as appropriate electric cost of expected resources to maintain security of electric
providing but still create competition and enhance economic efficiency in electric resource
construction and operation
4.2. Methodology and calculating condition to plan and develop electric resources
In NEPDP of period IV (1995  2005) and period V (2000  2010) recentlyy, optimal problem for
electric development is to use measure of motivate planning through WASP program. Though,
this is famous computer program and so far, it is still be used by electric planners in many
countries but it also shows some shortcomings such as: regarding whole electric system as only
button, not take account of transmitting limit of connect lines.

14

So, new feature in the methodology of electric planning problem electric planning VI is to
find solution to maximum balanced development of electric resources in every region, taking
into account of efficiency and shortcomings of connect lines to ensure providing electricity
safely, reliably in every region and nation wide
4.2.1. Rank hydro-power projects
NEPDP V ranks the list of construction investment of 31 NM hydro electricity in period of
2001  2010 and takes account of 2020. So far, there are 23 works constructed and under
construction. Since 2001 to 2004, there are 5 hydroelectric plants put into operation with total
capacity1343MW. Besides, there are some mini hydropower works constructed and put into
operation in 2004 such as Nam Mu, Na Loi, Ry Ninh,
Now, 20 hydropower plants are being constructed with total capacity about 3200MW, of
which 15 works belong to EVN.
In addition, in the country, many mini and medium hydro plants (range from 10 to 50MW)
with a total of capacity about 350 - 400MW are being constructed to come into operation in
the period now to 2010.
13 projects were planned to be constructed and started construction in late 2005 and 2006;
and come into operation in the period 2009  2010 with a total of capacity up to upper
1900MW, 9 hydroelectric plants of which belong to EVN.
2010, there remains 15 hydropower plants in progress of establishing
Pre-F/S, F/S, ladder planning report with a total of capacity upper 3500MW.
Intermediate report of advisory joint venture SWECO-STAKRAFT-NORPLAN on national
hydroelectric planning studies (NHPS 2) in the period 2, on the base of researching terrain
map 1/50000, field work, update techno-economic calculation standards, social-
environmental affects, ranked 21 hydroelectric works planned or expected to be developed in
the period after 2010. NHPS 2 added more 4 works into the ranking study including:
- Trung Son 250 -:- 310MW ( Ma - Chu river basin): is upper ladder of Ban Uon hydroelectric
plant. This plant combining with Ban Uon hydropower plant III - 80MW would have a total of
capacity 330MW.
- Hoi Xuan : 75 -:- 96MW (Ma - Chu river basin)
- Song Bung 5 : 50 -:- 85MW ( Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin)

- Nam Na : 200 -:- 300MW (top ladder of Da river)
The project consulted the latest ranking of advisory joint venture in NHPS 2 about mentioned
21 hydropower works. techno-economic ranking index is chosen according to 100 mark
scale, the same with the ratio between B/C of each project per B/C of the most beneficial
project (including electricity efficiency, water irrigation and against flood) . The rank according
to efficiency (rural electrification, promotion of health and education, roads, provincial

index of projects with the worst social environmental effect per the index of projects
considered at 100 mark scales, specifically as following table
Table 7.1. The rank of total hydroelectric projects ( # )
No.
Project name
N
(MW)
E
(GWh)
B/C
Ranking
according
to techno-
economy
Ranking
according to
social
environment
Total
ranking
(order)
1
Lai Châu

1200
4663
2.08
100,0
48,4
93,1 - (2)

15
2
Nho Qu 3
190
661
1.92
92,3
92,9
100 - (1)
3
ng Kontum
260
654
1.79
86,1
64,0
86,6 - (3)
4
Hui Qung
520
1868
1.61
77,4

76,7
83,5 - (4)
5

310
1113
1.54
74,0
60,5
76,1 - (8)
6
Bn Chát
220
1090
1.46
70,2
44,1
68,3
7
Sông Bung 2
160
497
1.40
67,3
100
82,3 - (5)
8
Srepok 3+4
285
1301

1.34
64,4
89,1
76,9 - (7)
9
Dak Mi 4
196
706
1.34
64,4
62,1
69,0
10
Dak Mi 1
250
914
1.31
63,0
57,1
66,4
11
Sông Côn 2
60
198
1.30
62,5
96,7
77,6 - (6)
12
Hua Na

180
737
1.28
61,5
51,1
63,5
13
Bn Uôn
80
330
1.22
58,7
92,7
73,4 - (9)
14
Sông Bung 5
85
308
1.16
55,8
88,3
69,8- (10)
15
Sông Bung 4
240
689
1.09
52,4
73,0
62,7

16
Khe B
96
396
1.05
50,5
67,8
59,7 - (-1)
17
Bc Mê
250
919
1.05
50,5
59,4
57,2 - (-3)
18
c Xuyên
70
255
0.98
47,1
55,5
53,4 - (-4)
19
ng Nai 2
90
420
0.97
46,6

73,0
58,1 - (-2)
20
Nm Na
300
874
0.97
46,6
82,7
61,0
21
Hoi Xuan
75
280
0.76
36,5
71,0
49,6 - (-5)
(# ) Consult the national hydropower planning research in period 2 ( of advisory joint venture SWECO-NORPLAN)

According to the collective ranking result, 5 highest ranked projects are: Nho Que 3, Lai
Chau, Thuong Kon Tum, Huoi Quang, Song Bung 2
 to
work at peak load of electric generation system (JICA-2004), 3 areas which have potential to
develop PSHP are Phu Yen §ong, Phu Yen Tay ( S¬n La province) and Bac Ai (Ninh
Thuan). In each area, it is possible to built 1000  2000MW PSHP.
According to the resolution no.3837/Q§-BCN on November 22
nd
, 2005 of ministry of industry
on ratification of PSHP planning, 2 areas expectedly given priority to develop first PSHP are

§ong Phu Yen (Son La province) and Bac ai (Ninh Thuan).

16
4.2.2. Assess ability to provide coal and gas fuel to electric production
As the draft development target of Vietnam oil sector up to 2015 , oriented to 2025, total gas
resource (includes parallel gas and natural gas) from about 5 billion m
3
now would increase
about 11,1 billion m
3
in 2010, 14,6 billion m
3
in 2015 and 14 - 15,6 billion m
3
in 2020, of which
about 63  68% gas amount lies in continental shelf in the East (Southern Con Son, Cuu
Long), the remains are in the Western- Sourthern continental sheft (Malai-Tho Chu: PM3-
CAA, Cai Nuoc, Block B, 52/97, 46/02 )
Gas demands for other sectors includes gas for production of nitrogenous fertilizer (NM Phó
Mü, Cµ Mau) and stell industry, pottery & porcelain, cement are forecasted to increase from
5 million m
3
currently to 1,75 billion m
3
in 2010 and increase about 1,8  2 billion m
3
in the
years after 2010.
With detail calculation of maximum exploitation capacity coal mine, October, 2005 TVM&CN
company estimated amount of domestic exploited coal which be provided to electric

production in the period of 2006  2025, gathered No. 5 Hon Gai (heat energy ~ 5500kcal/kg)
and collected in the following table:

Table 7.2 . Capacity to providing coal to electric production
(
a
)

Unit : 10
3
ton
Years
Base Case
High Case
2005
4160

2006
4990
4990
2007
5340
5340
2008
6585
7535
2009
9255
13655
2010

16305
21935
2011
23385
23985
2012
27455
27785
2013
27785
27975
2014
27785
28545
2015
27380
29380
2020
32693
40430

(a)
according to special report for electric planning VI of mine and industrial consulting and
investing company  TVN (10-2005)
As calculated, up to 2016 -2017 period, almost potential hydropower plants are putin to
exploitation (with a total of capacity15000MW). Th      
resource for electric production)

17
Therefore, new electric resources would have to base on coal thermal electric plants and

nuclear electric plant. If providing coal to electric production as above table 7.2, around since
2016, it must be imported coal for coal thermal electricity in the Sourth and up to 2022, need
import coal in the North.
4.2.3. Nuclear electric plants
In TS§V
the number 1 generator with capacity from 800 to 1350MW in the period 2017  2019. The
-F/S) of nuclear electric project was been finnished in 2004
and submitted to the goverment. Proposal of the report is that together with economic
competition of nuclear electricity compared to imported coal thermal electricity, advanced
technology, enhancing resources diversification, reduction of depending on imported fuel,
promoting energy security and be premise for development of the country industrialisation
and modernisation, need a further deep research to put nuclear electricity in use. According
to the target of nuclear energy development for peace approved by the government in 2005,
up to 2020, the first nuclear electric plant would be put into operation with the scale 2000MW.
It is expected that the first nuclear electric plant would need insert machine 1 since 2019.
Scale of the plant is 2,1000MW in 2020 and up to 4 x 1000MW in 2025. Sites for nuclear
electric plant construction are compared then chosen to have the most favorable site . It is
Phuoc Dinh (Ninh Thuan)
4.2.4 Ability to import electricity from countries in the region

addition to hydroelectric work Se Kaman3-250MW which is being constructed by
  
projects expected to be constructed in 2010 to export electricity to Vietnam:
- Se Kaman 1  488MW
- Se K«ng 4  485MW
- Se K«ng 5  405MW
- Nam Kong  240MW
Mentioned projects with total capacity of 1600 MW, if all are collected to Ban Sok area, it is
convenient to get 500kV line to Pleiky station with the length of 180km.
Expectedly, hydropower plant Se Kaman 1 would be put into operation in 2012, and then, Se

Kong 4, Se Kong 5, and Nam Kong.
In addition, as the plan, Vietnam would soon coordinate with Laos to do hydropower planning
in Nam U river basin (Northern Laos) with total potential of hydropowr plants is eqivalent to
one of Da river basin. If it is possible to develop hydropower in Nam U river basin, and export
electricity to Vietnam, this would open up remarkable potential of new electric resouces.
In West North area of Cambodia There have some hydro-electric projects expected to be
deleloped before 2015 to export electricity to Vietnam, they are: Ha Se San 3  375 MW, H¹
Srªpok 2  222MW and H¹ Sª San 207MW. Outside Ha Se san 3 planed to to integrated to
Pleiku station by 220kV lines. Total estimated capacity imported from Cambodia is about
800MW.
As regards to electric inter-grid with China, now, Vietnam is importing electricity from Yunnan
and Quang Tay with the scale of 200MW, import time is expected to 2010. to 2007, we would
have imported through 220kV electric grid from Yunnan to Vietnam with total capacity 450-
500 MW, after that, the capacity could increase to 600MW. Around 2016-2-19, we could
import electricity from Yunnan province about 1500MW. It is expected to provide electricity to
Soc Son station through 500kW wire with length of 400km.


18
4.2.5. Zoning inter-regional electric systems
Zoning inter-regional systems is very important because through belancing supply and demand
in each region, ability and shortcomings in electric capacity exchange through 500kV wire, we
would have the best solution to electric resources distribution and reasonable rate of progress
in each region. Besides, considering whether it is neccessary to build 500kV connecting circuit
3 or not and when if it is neccessary? Due to the structure of 500kV, distribution of additional
charge areas and locations of hydropower plants currently and expectedly, 2 locations chosen
to be slice separating systems are: space between Ha Tinh and Quang Binh (locate between
500kV station of Ha Tinh and one of Da Nang)  regarding 2 circuit DZ 500kV Ha Tinh  Da
Nang as North  Central link; the space among Pleiky and the station 500kV Di linh and Dac
Nong is DZ 500kV linking Central  Sourth region.

- additional charge of the North electric system includes areas of Hanoi, Hai Phong, Hai
Duong, and Ninh Binh, belonging to electricity company. Hydropower plants located from Ha
Tinh province belong to the North electric system.
- Additional charge of the Central electric system belong the area of electricity company III and
electricity company Khanh Hoa. Hydropower plants in Yaly, Vinh Son, Song Hinh, Se San 3,
3A and a series of hydropower plants is expectedly located from Quang Binh to Northern
Daknong province belong to electricity system of the Central.
- 
Ho Chi Minh city and Dong Nai. Hydropower plants in Da Nhim, Tri An, Thac Mo, Ham Thuan
 Da Mi, Can Don; and, expected hydropower plants in Dai Ninh, Dong Nai 2,3,4 and 5,
Srepok, Srok, Srok Phu Mieng, Dak Tih, Dam Bri, Duc Xuyen all belong to the South.

4.3. Measures to develop electric resources
4.3.1 Basis to plan projects
From viewpoint and methodology on electric resources development planning, the project is
expected to analyse the comparison between electric resource development projects with
basic additional charge demand level. Intaking conditions would be basis to have options of
calculation and comparision. Policy factor or other objective tie (such as gas thermal electric
             
decide some conditions in the maximum problem, outside pure techno-economic option.
Those conditions are considered as following aspects:
1  inherit and expand studies in last TSD V, researching results of the prefeasible
reserching report on nuclear electricity projects and assessment on hydropower development
planning in the project of national hydroelectric planning, period 1 (finnished) and national
hydropower planning, period 2 having draft:
2- lilmit of fuel (parallel gas and natural gas according to sediment reservoirs, domestic and
imported coal):
 From the ability to provide gas from continental shelf in the East and West South shown
in chapter VI, limit providing gas could reach 16 billion m3/year in the period of 2012  2020,
after that, could inrease to 19 billion m

3
. Gas market demand for industrial sectors excepting
electricity (nitrogenous fertilizer production, metallurgy, plottery and porcelain ) is
forecasted to increase about 1  1,5 billion m3/year within 10  15 next years. So gas ceiling
limit provided to electric production would be about 15 - 17 billion m3/year.
 Domestic coal provided to electric production is expected to increase gradually, could
reach about 20  25 million tons in 2015 and about 42  45 million tons up to 2025.
 Coal imported from Australia or Indonesia. Thermalelectric plants which use imported
coal fuel are expectedly taken priority to develop firstly in the South, after that, when
domestic coal is short off, thermalelectric plants in the North would be built

19
3 - Price and slippage in price of gas, coal, oil fuel for electric production.
4  Abilities to import electricity from hydropower plants (Laos, Cambodia) or from the
Southern China electric system
5  Limit of transmition and mode of reasonable operation of 2 circuit wire 500kV linking 3
regions North  Central  South.
6  Cost and efficiency of PSHP in the role peak capacity diagram and capacity spare;
7     
towards thermal electric plants
8  Especially, in the period from 2006  2010 and after 2010, the option of electric
resources development made the list of 12 urgent constructing thermal electric plants with
special mechanism of prime minister as announcement no.184/TB-VPCP on December 28th,
2005 and resolution 1195/Q§-TTg on September 11st, 2005 to meet electric demand in the
period of 2006  2010 and after 2010.
9  Besides, it needs consider the late risk possibility in electric resource rate of progress in
period up to 2010 and after 2010 (due to difficulties of investment capital, procedule,
removement compensation, executing, imported equipmetn ).

4.3.2. Preliminary screen

To reduce quantity of unneccessay composed elictric resources, preliminary assessment
economic competition of fuel kinds, projects to impliment screening steps by setting up the
average cost calculation table upon thermalelectric plants planned to develop. The result of
this is shown in Fig. 7.1
In table 7.8, coal thermalelectric plants in the North using domestic coal always get lowest
averge cost (coeffecient of capacity using from 60 to 80%), the second is coal thermal-
electric plants transfered from the North to the Central and the South. The third is mixed gas
turebine (GT) ( with coefficient of capacity from 60-80%). Nuclear electricity would compete
with imported coal when coefficient of capacity is above 75%.
Because imported electricity from China is mainly provided to the North, the electricity price
is 3,8 -:-              
thermalelectric plants. If electricity co
thermalelectric plants need be carefully considered and compared to importing electricity
through further comparing other factors such as investment burden reduction, Carbon dioxin
emission (apply t

4.3.3. compare options
Analyze and compare options carried out on the base a change in input date of case
according to objective factors (operation target DZ 500kV inter-region, increase coal pric )
and objective factors (ability to provide gas and gas price, difficulties to import electricity ).
The option with lowest cost, ensuring reliance, highest feasibility would be chosen and
proposed.

Option imitated in maximuum calculation programs, caculation of investment cost, fuel cost,
importing electricity cost, cost for loss in exchanging electricity via §Z 500kV North-Central-
South.

4.4. Electric resouce development in the period of 2006 -2025 .

20

4.4.1 Plan to construct electric resource (2006 – 2010)
In chapter II, section of reviewing  implimentation shows situation of thermalelectric

demand following low - primary  hight options is 106,7  112,7  117,3 billion kWh. To meet
electricity demand of primary option and taking account of high option, electric resource
option proposed is PA3, in which, rate of progress of some coal thermalelectric plants is
expected to be push up sooner in the North such as: Hai Phong II 2x300MW in 2010; Son
Dong 220MW (2008), Mao Khe I - 220MW (2009), Cam Pha II-300MW (2010) Vung ang I-
600MW (2010); The South: mixed GT Ca Mau II  750MW; mixed GT in O Mon 2x330MW
(2008-2009); mixed GT in O Mon IV-750MW ( in the case of late O Mon IV, replaced by
Nh¬n Tr¹ch II); some mini and medium hydroelectricity plants are encouraged to develop
upto 2010 total install capacity and import reached 25880MW, meeting maximum additional
charge demand according to primary option 19117MW with spare rate as install capacity
(after repair-mainternance): The North is 23,0% and the South is 22,6%; in dry season (May)
rate of spare capacity after repair and mainterance is 29,0% and the South is 21,5%(detail
rate of progress, see in the appendex)

4.4.2 Base Case of additional charge (Case 3 – choose of Case )
4.4.2.1. electric resource development Program in the period 2011  2015
Electric resource development program in the period 2011 -2015 toward basical additional
charge option ( electricity demand is 90 billion kWh in 2015) is defined as follows: in the
period from now to 2015, total capacity new electric plants about 30.800MW, of which
hyddroelectricity 9.400MW; gas thermalelectricity (mixed gas turebine and condense steam
thermal electricity) about 7.700MW; coal thermalelectricity10.500MW; electricity imported
from neighboring countries 2.000MW; and energy from new kind of energy (mini
hydroelectricity, wind electricity )1.200MW.
As regards to this resource development, up to 2015 total capacity of Vi 
plants is 42.470MW, in which hydropower is 13.600 (32,0%), oil-gas thermalelectricity is
13.400 (31,5%), coal thermalelectricity is 12.100 (28,6%), imported electricity is 2100MW
(5,0%) and electric from new resources of energy is 1.270MW (3,0%); ensure meeting

additional charge demand of 31495MW with a spare ratio after repairing-mainternance is
26,2% in the rainy season and about 20,9% in the end of dry season .
is 53,1 TWh
(27,9%), oil  gas thermalelectricity is 66 TWh (34,8%), coal thermal electricity is 60,4 TWh
(31,8%), electricity from mini hydropower plants and new energy is 3,0 TWh (1,6%),
imported electricity is 7,6 TWh (4,0%). Detail list of electric resource in the period 2006 
2015 is put in the appandex.
4.4.2.2. electric resource development Program in the period 2020  2025
Till 2020 total capatity of electric plants is 60.700MW, of which, hydropower and pump
.200MW (28,3%), oil-gas thermalelectricity: 16.300 MW
(26,8%), coal thermalelectricity:18.300 MW (30,2%), nuclear electricity: 2.000MW (3,3%),
electriciy from mini hydropower plants and new energy:1800MW (2,8%) and imported
electricity: 5.200MW (8,6%).
El             
(21,6%), oil gas thermalelectricity: 90,6 TWh (30,8%), coal thermalelectricity:101,2 TWh
(34,4%), imported electricity: 25,5 TWh (8,7%), nuclear electricity: 8,0 TWh (2,7%) ; and
electricity from new resource of energy: 5,1 TWh (1,7%).
Till 2025, total capacity of electricity plants is 85.500MW, of which, hydropower and pump
storage hydropower ocupy 21.300MW (24,9%), oil gas thermalelectricity: 17.000MW
(19,9%), coal thermalelectricity:35.800MW (41,8%), imported electricity: 5.200MW (6,1%),

21
nuclear electricity: 4000MW (4,7%), electricity from new energy resource: 2300MW (2,7%);
meet additional charge demands of 68.440MW with spare ratio after repairing and
mainternance is 14,4% in the rainy season and about 12,1% in the end of dry season .
           
electricity for PSHP): 62,8 TWh (14,6%), oil gas thermalelectricity: 113,8 TWh (26,4%), coal
thermalelectricity: 198,3 TWh (45,9%), imported electricity: 25,5 TWh (5,9%), nuclear
electricity:24,6 TWh (5,7%) and electricity from new energy: 6,6 TWh (1,5%).
Since 2020, it would be constructed some coal thermalelectric plants in the Central with the

scale from 600MW to 2400MW in areas of province Thua Thiªn-Hue, Quang Nam, Khanh
Hoa,

4.4.2.3. Electric resource projects IPP (BOO, BOT, BT, )
Conformity with target of electricity sector development approved by Prime Minister, aiming
to diversify kinds of electric investment, management , businessment, strengthening
competition to enhane economic efficiency, reduce investment capital burden for EVN, in the
program of electric development, there would have many electric resource projects called for

investment in IPP form in the period 2006  2015 is about above 10.000MW, not take
account of about 500MW mini hydropower projects invested by other investers outside EVN.
In addition to projects such as: coal thermalelectric plants: Cam Pha, Son §ong, Mao Khe,
Mong Duong II, Vung ang I, TBKHH Ca Mau I, II, Nhon Trach I, hydropower plant: Se San
3A, Nam Chien, with total capacity to above 5.700MW. Some projects expected to be
invested according to IPP form are: coal thermalelectric plants Nghi Son II  2x600MW; Vung
ang II (2x600MW); the Southern thermalelectric plants: Two of areas field worked are Tra Cu,
Tra Vinh and Vinh Tan-Binh Thuan have ability to build plants with capacity from 2x600 to
4x600MW in each area; gas thermalelectric plant O Mon II  750MW, Nhon Trach II-
750MW and some following works:

- Coal thermal electric plants produced for test electric plant equipment in the country  50-:-
100MW
- Coal thermalelectric plant Cam Pha III  2x135MW used poor quality of coal.
- Coal thermalelectric plant Mao Khe II  220MW, could increased two electric machine.
- Coal thermalelectric plant Dien Cong  2x300MW
- Expanded projects of coal thermalelectric plants Cao Ngan, Na Duong, Son Dong
- Coal thermalelectric projects in Quang Nam, Binh Thuan
b) Electric projects proposed to invest by othe companies:
- Coal thermalelectric plant Thang Long 300MW (Use poor quality of coal. )  joint stock
cement companyThang Long.

- coal thermalelectric plant Thuy Nguyen, Hai Phong: 2 x 300MW  invested by joint stock
comercial construction company
c) Thermalelec         
provincesÞ:
- Regional coal thermalelectric plant Chan May  Lang Co (Thua Thien Hue province),
predicted to 2400MW
- Regional coal thermalelectric plants in provinces: Phu Tho, Ninh Binh, Quang Ninh, Binh
Dinh

22

participation in electric system. However, together with electric resource works ratified to be
invested and implimenting, projects which is being invested belong to urgen mechanism of
goverment in resolution1195TTg, these electric plant projects would meet difficultes to be
embalanced in period 2011 - 2015. Therefore, the projects mentioned in sections a), b) vµ c)
would be considered to embalance in the development project with high additional charge or
continue to be researched to put into operation in period after 2015.
4.4.2.4. Fuel demand for electric production
From result of the calculation program, according to electric resource development plans in
mentioned above option 3, we have the need to balance gas, coal and oil fuel
Total coal demand for electricity production is 11,9 million tons in 2010, increas to 24 million
tons in 2015, 39,1 million tons in 2020 & 76,4 million tons in 2025. amount of imported coal in
2015 is about 4 million tons; 11,5 million tons in 2020; about 36,7 million tons in 2025
The balance in table 7.7 shows that total gas demand for electricity increase 7,7 billion m
3
in
2010, to 13 billion m
3
in 2015, to 15,6 billion m
3

in 2020 and reached 17 billion m
3
in 2025.
In the balance table of electricity, firs generators of nuclear electric plants came into

generator1000MW/ unit about 26 -27 tons Uranium fuel each year.

4.4.3. Conclusion on development planning of electric resource
1. in years from 2006 to 2008, due to the late in progress rate of some electric resources,
at additional charge projects, the risk of electricity shortage is very high, especially in the
Northl. A series of measures is implimented to reduce maximumly the risk such as: control
strictly progress rate of the works under construction; move the current schedule of repair
and maintenance existing electric resources to maintain usable capacity of thermalelectric
plants Phu My, Ba Ria; promote early importing electricity from 220-110kV grid of China;
mobilise everyone to save electricity using and strengthen measures DSM , however,
electric plants slill operate at hard regulations continously in years, easy to breakdown.
            
additional charge project, the risk of electricity shortage would reduce remarkable.
2. To limit the continous late to build electric resources, it must control monthly progress
rate of the works under construction to put into operation in 2006 - 2008 such as:
Hydropower plant Tuyen Quang, thermalelectric plant Hai Phong I, thermalelectric plant Son
§ong in the North; hydroelectric plants Se San 3, Se San 3A, Preikrong, Quang Tri, Buon
Kuop, in the Central; hydroelectric plant §ai Ninh, Dong Nai 3 - 4, in the South. Soon
starting construction gas thermalelectric plants Nhon Trach I, O Mon III,
3. From now to 2010, there are from 350  400MW mini and medium hdro electric
resources as expected to be put into operation, mostly IPP investment form.But, progress
rate of the works during last years is slow. It must have a mechanism to control progression
rate these r           
development capital
4. In the list of electric resources in period 2006-2010 in the appendex, the most

importance is that: Resources intaking could be earlier, but by every measure to keep, it
must not later than the time planed.
5. Period 2011-2015, the list proposed in the appendex includes some notes: Impossibility
to be later than progression rate scheduled. Because the maximum calculation program
considered barely enough reliance to provide electricity and enough for spare. If being later
than the time scheduled, it could cause the risk of unreliability in providing electricity and
possibly cause electricity shortage.

23
6. In planning locations of coal thermal electric plants in the South, there are 2 locations
examined by electric construction and consulting company 2 are Tra Cu (Tra Vinh province)
and Long Phu (Soc Trang). These 2 places are evaluated to be convenient for development
coal thermal electric plants when the channel Quan Ch
sea harbor planning approved by the government) finnish dredging so that it could intake
ships with tonnage of 20.000 tons in 2010  2011. An other location also examined by
electric construction and consulting company 2 and foreign company (belong to CSG
corporation, China), Vinh Tan, coastal area of Binh Thuan is also possible to construct coal
thermal electric plant with the scale of 3000MW. Except Phuoc An (30km far from Nhon
Trach) belong to Dong Nai province is assessed to be rather convenient about premises,
water providing, coal habor with ship scale of 20 000 tons. It needs to consider the
coordination with Dong Nai to build plants of about 1000-1200MW coal thermal electricity in
this place if having enough opportunity.
7. import electricity from China could be chosen one in 2 options: Option 1: Install shift
unit AC-DC-AC Back to Back in import site 220kV Lao Cai andHa Giang in 2009, enhancing
import capacity to 300MW at each site. 220kV grid Vietnam would reconcile. Then up to
2017 importing via 500kV grid, gradually increase to 1500MW; b) Option 2: Maintain 220kV
grid in area where receiving imported electricity. The part from electric grid system of place
would shrink litle by little according to the rise of additional charge of the imported area; Till
2015-2016 Vietnam would stop importing electricity through level 220kV and move to
connect 500kV via DC electric line or install Converter Back to Back level 500kV.

8. According to recently proposal of gas porovider BP on development plan of Moc Tinh and
Hai trach mines (Plot 05.2 and 05.3), total reserves of the 2 gas mines about 32 billion m
3
. as
estimated, late 2010 it is possible to exploit gas and provide to thermal electric center Nhon
Trach with amount of 1,6  1,7 billion m
3
/year in time of 18-20 years. Now BP is seeking a
MOU for ministry of industry an 3 sides PV, EVN and BP agree about development plan the
mines and thermal electric plants Nhon II and III (2x750MW).
It is neccessary to promote progresses of reviewing reserves, agreement in the plan of
providing gas, pipe line construction; decision of reasonable cost to develop further 2 x
750MW thermal electricity in Nhon Trach. The case generator of mixed gas turebine O Mon
IV is not in time to use in 2010, it could be replaced by generator of Nhon Trach II (750MW);
similarly, tæ m¸y Nhon trach III  750MW could be used in 2011 - 2012.
9. In low additional charge option
Reduction of demand Pmax in comparision with basic additional charge is 1016MW and
3448, MW in the years of 2010 and 2015. So, Capacity is neccessary to be reduced
2300MW and 6100MW according to milestones 2010 and 2015 as follows:
- Cµ Mau II could be delayed to - 2009
- Hai Phong II  - 2011-2012
- O Mon I  - 2011
- O Mon IV (hoÆc Nh¬n Tr¹ch III)  - 2013
- Tra Vinh Themal power  - 2013
- Quang Ninh II could be delayed to  2013-2014;
- Nghi Son I   2013-2014;
- Nghi Son II   2017-2018;
- Mong Duong I   2015-2016;
- Mong Duong II   2019-2020;
- Vung Ang I   2017-2018

24
- Nhon Trach III  - 2014
The North up to 2020  2025 would just construct coal thermal electric plants using domestic
coal. Nuclear electricity would be developed to 2000MW in period 2020  2025.
10. To diversify investment, basing on working mode of the additional chargediagram bed
of some coal thermal plants in the North (kind of 300-600MW) and mixed cycle gas thermal
electricity (kind of 720 -750MW) in the South, it needs encourage investors excepting for
EVN            
thermal electric plants under IPP form.
11. Pump storage hydropower would enter the first generator in 2019 in the North (size
300MW), then increase to 1500MW in 2025. The South would have generators PSHP in
2020 and increase to 3300MW in 2025. In addition to locations of Phu Yen (Son La) and Bac
Ai (Ninh Thuan), new locations should be found.
12. For places of coal and gas thermal electric plants after 2020 :
a. The North need to build further some 6400MW coal thermal electric plants.
Potential places are in the North of Hai Phong, areas of Uong Bi-Quang Ninh, Thai Binh,
Ninh Binh and possibly Hung Yen (use brown coal in Hong river delta). Places are not clear,
so it needs research to find further coastal locations of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Thai Binh
which have ability to build harbor importing coal to construct a new thermal electric centre.
b. The Central up to the period of 2020 - 2025 would need construct some
2400MW -:- 3600MW of coal thermal electricity. It needs continue studies on feasibility of
the locations examined at the beginning in the range of provinces: Quang Binh, Thua Thien 
Hue, Quang Nam, Quang ngai, Phu Yen and Khanh Hoa. If gas container is discovered in
the area from Quang Nam to Quang Ngai, it would be built here some 600  700MW mixed
gas turebine.
c. In addition to mentioned coal thermal electric centers in Tra Vinh, Soc Trang,
after 2020 the South also need construct some 5000 -:- 6000MW coal thermal electricity
which use imported coal. It is necessary to further seek locations inshore of Ninh thuan, Binh
  

gas from plot B, 52/97, belong to gas container Malai-Tho Chu is possible to reach 5,2
billion m3/year. Excepting amount of gas provided to O Mon thermal electric center, we could
seek locations in Kien Giang or Cai Lay to construct further some 2000MW gas thermal
electricity in these places.
Depending on mentioned base, it needs to identify the list and progression rate of electric
resources according to basic and high additional charge project in period 2006  2025 .

13. Total electric capacity of river basin and areas put into operation in period of 2011-2020
and take account of 2025 :
To meet energy demand for social-economic development of the country; base on potential
of energy forms in regions, basical contents of national energy policy and strategy of electric
sector development in period 2010-2020 and the resolution approved by The Government on
Vietnam electric development planning in period 2011-1020, considering to 2025, we can

very huge, about 33,310 MW. Total hydroelectric capacity in river basins and regions put into
operation in this phase and the ratio of it compared to total hydropower capacity of the whole
country as follows:
( i ). Hong & Thai Binh river basins : 11,286 MW /take up 34 % of the whole country.
( ii ). Dong Nai river basin: 1,194 - / - 08 -
( iii). Coastal region of The Eastern South( SERC ): 3, 900 - / - 12 -