Tải bản đầy đủ (.pdf) (36 trang)

Thinking Skills Assessment Oxford 2014 section 1

Bạn đang xem bản rút gọn của tài liệu. Xem và tải ngay bản đầy đủ của tài liệu tại đây (3.02 MB, 36 trang )

Thinking Skills Assessment Oxford
Wednesday 5 November 2014





SECTION 1

4502/11
1 hour 30 minutes

Thinking Skills Assessment

Instructions to Candidates
Please read this page carefully, but do not open this question paper until you are told that
you may do so.
A separate answer sheet is provided for this section. Please check you have one.
You also require a soft pencil and an eraser.
Please complete the answer sheet with your TSA candidate number, centre number, date of birth
and name.
Speed as well as accuracy is important in this section. Work quickly, or you may not finish the
paper. There are no penalties for incorrect responses, only points for correct answers, so you
should attempt all 50 questions. All questions are worth one mark.
Answer on the sheet provided. Questions ask you to show your choice between five options.
Choose the one option you consider correct and record your choice on the separate answer sheet.
If you make a mistake, erase thoroughly and try again.
Any rough work should be done on this question paper.
Dictionaries and calculators may NOT be used.

Developed and administered on behalf of the University of


Oxford by the Admissions Testing Service, part of
Cambridge Assessment, a non-teaching department of the
University of Cambridge.
© Copyright UCLES 2014

Please wait to be told you may begin before turning this page.
This paper consists of 33 printed pages and 3 blank pages.

© copyright UCLES 2014


2























%/$1.3$*(

‹UCLES 2014


3



,QWKHSDVW\HDUVWKHJRYHUQPHQWKDVSRXUHGPLOOLRQVRISRXQGVLQWRSURPRWLQJVSRUWWRWU\WR
LQFUHDVHDGXOWSDUWLFLSDWLRQ7KHUHVXOWVVKRZQRODVWLQJHIIHFW$VXUYH\VKRZHGWKDWXQOHVV
FKLOGUHQ
FDWFKWKHVSRUWKDELW
EHWZHHQWKHDJHVRIVHYHQDQGIRXUWHHQ\HDUVWKH\DUHXQOLNHO\WR
SDUWLFLSDWHLQVSRUWDVDQDGXOWDQGWKDWWKHVSRUWVWKH\DGRSWDVFKLOGUHQDUHOLNHO\WREHWKH
VSRUWVWKH\SOD\DVDGXOWV6FKRROVQHHGDQGVKRXOGEHJLYHQPRQH\WRJLYHFKLOGUHQDQLQWHUHVW
LQVSRUW6SHQGLQJPRQH\WU\LQJWRSHUVXDGHDGXOWVWRWDNHXSVSRUWLVOLNHORFNLQJWKHVWDEOH
GRRUDIWHUWKHKRUVHKDVEROWHG
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJEHVWH[SUHVVHVWKHFRQFOXVLRQRIWKHDUJXPHQWLQWKHSDVVDJH
DERYH"



$

,ISHRSOHGRQRWJDLQDQLQWHUHVWLQVSRUWZKHQWKH\DUH\RXQJWKH\QHYHUZLOO


%

7KHJRYHUQPHQWKDVZDVWHGPLOOLRQVRISRXQGVSURPRWLQJVSRUWWRDGXOWV

&

7KHJRYHUQPHQWVKRXOGJLYHIXQGVWRVFKRROVWRKHOSFKLOGUHQFDWFKWKHVSRUWKDELW

'

6FKRROVQHHGPRUHWLPHLQWKHFXUULFXOXPWRSURPRWHVSRUW

(

7KHVSRUWVFKLOGUHQDGRSWZLOOGHWHUPLQHZKDWWKH\SOD\DVDGXOWV

7ZRQHLJKERXUVZRUNIRUWKHVDPHFRPSDQ\DQGVKDUHWKHMRXUQH\WRZRUNGULYLQJDOWHUQDWHO\LQ
VWULFWURWDWLRQ7KH\ZRUN0RQGD\WR)ULGD\HDFKZHHNDQGHYHU\RWKHU6DWXUGD\ 7KH\DOZD\V
ZRUNWKHVDPH6DWXUGD\VDVHDFKRWKHU

:KDWLVWKHPD[LPXPQXPEHURIGD\VHLWKHURIWKHPKDVWRGULYHLQDFDOHQGDUPRQWK"
$



%




&



'



(



‹UCLES 2014

>7XUQ2YHU


4



6DOHVRISULQWHGERRNVDUHVWHDGLO\GHFOLQLQJZLWKVDOHVGURSSLQJWRDVHYHQ\HDUORZLQ
,QGHSHQGHQWERRNVKRSVDUHFORVLQJDOORYHUWKHFRXQWU\DQGFKDLQERRNVWRUHVDUHOLNHO\WREHKLW
QH[W6DOHVRIHERRNVPHDQZKLOHDUHERRPLQJZLWKPDQ\SUHGLFWLQJWKDWSHUFHQWRIDOO
ERRNVVROGZLWKLQ\HDUVZLOOEHGLJLWDOGRZQORDGV$QHFGRWDOHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWSHRSOH
HQMR\WKHFRQYHQLHQFHRIGLJLWDOPHGLD(ERRNVKDYHWULXPSKHGWKH\KDYHOHGUHDGHUVDZD\
IURPWUDGLWLRQDOIRUPVRISULQWWRDGLJLWDOZRUOG
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVDIODZLQWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"




$

,WEDVHVLWVFRQFOXVLRQRQSUHGLFWLRQVRIIXWXUHVDOHVUDWKHUWKDQKDUGHYLGHQFH

%

,WLJQRUHVWKHDGYDQWDJHVWKDWHERRNVKDYHRYHUSULQWHGERRNV

&

,WDVVXPHVWKDWHERRNVKDYHQRWDWWUDFWHGQHZUHDGHUV

'

%\IRFXVVLQJRQWKHFORVXUHRIERRNVKRSVLWLJQRUHVWKHFUHDWLRQRIQHZHOHFWURQLF
PDUNHWV

(

,WFLWHVDQHFGRWDOHYLGHQFH

:KHQ$UQROG6FKZDU]HQHJJHUZDVWKH*RYHUQRURI&DOLIRUQLDKHORRNHGIRUZD\VWRPDNH
VDYLQJVLQDQHIIRUWWREDODQFHWKH&DOLIRUQLDEXGJHW+HZDVSDUWLFXODUO\FRQFHUQHGDERXWWKH
KLJKFRVWRIVFKRROWH[WERRNVZKLFKKHFRQVLGHUHGWREHRXWGDWHG6FKZDU]HQHJJHUZKR
SRUWUD\HGDWLPHWUDYHOOLQJURERWNLOOHULQWKH7HUPLQDWRUILOPVLQZKLFKDFRPSXWHUQHWZRUNWDNHV
RYHUWKHZRUOGORRNHGWRLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\WRVROYHWKHSUREOHPRIWKHKLJKFRVWRIWH[W
ERRNV+HSURSRVHGWKDWDVDQDOWHUQDWLYHWRERRNVVWXGHQWVFRXOGEHJLYHQKDQGKHOGGHYLFHV
WKDWVWRUHXSWRGDWHERRNVHOHFWURQLFDOO\DQGDOORZWKHPDFFHVVWRRQOLQHZRUNIRUPDWKVDQG
VFLHQFH6LQFHVWXGHQWVDUHH[SHULHQFHGZLWKFRPSXWHUVDQGZLOOUHDGLO\DFFHSWWKHQHZ

WHFKQRORJ\WKLVLVQRWMXVW+ROO\ZRRGVFLILEXWFRPPRQVHQVH
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVDQXQGHUO\LQJDVVXPSWLRQRIWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"
$

7KH*RYHUQRUEDVHGKLVGHFLVLRQVRQKLVILOPH[SHULHQFHV

%

7KHSURSRVHGXVHRILQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\ZLOOVDYHPRQH\

&

6WXGHQWVZLOOOLNHWKHVHGHYLFHVEHWWHUEHFDXVHWKH\SOD\FRPSXWHUJDPHV

'

7KH*RYHUQRUFRQVLGHUHGWH[WERRNVWREHRXWGDWHG

(

6WXGHQWVFDQQRWFXUUHQWO\DFFHVVRQOLQHZRUNIRUPDWKVDQGVFLHQFH

‹UCLES 2014


5



5HFHQWQHZVVWRULHVKDYHPLVWDNHQO\LPSOLHGWKDWDQLPDOVFDQXQGHUVWDQGPDWKHPDWLFVEHWWHU

WKDQKXPDQV3DUWLFLSDQWVLQDVWXG\ZHUHDVNHGWRVWDWHDFKRLFHRIRQHRIWKUHHGRRUVEHKLQG
RQHRIZKLFKWKHUHZDVDSUL]H7KHQWKHUHVHDUFKHURSHQHGRQHRIWKHRWKHUWZRGRRUV
UHYHDOLQJWKDWWKHUHZDVQRSUL]HEHKLQGLW$VNHGLIWKH\ZRXOGOLNHWRFKDQJHWKHLUFKRLFHPRVW
FKRVHQRWWRFKDQJH6ZLWFKLQJWRWKHUHPDLQLQJFORVHGGRRUZRXOGKDYHLQFUHDVHGWKHLU
FKDQFHRIZLQQLQJ(YHQDIWHUSOD\LQJWKHJDPHPDQ\WLPHVZKLFKDOORZHGWKHPWRREVHUYH
WKDWWKH\ZRXOGZLQPRUHRIWHQLIWKH\VZLWFKHGPRVWGLGQRWGRVR:KHQSLJHRQVSOD\HGD
VLPLODUJDPHDIWHUDIHZDWWHPSWVWKH\VZLWFKHGHYHU\WLPH6RWKHSLJHRQVOHDUQWIURP
H[SHULHQFHZKHUHDVWKHSHRSOHRYHUDQDO\VHGDQGEHFDPHFRQIXVHG
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVDQDVVXPSWLRQXQGHUO\LQJWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"



$

%LUGVDUHEHWWHUWKDQKXPDQEHLQJVDWOHDUQLQJIURPH[SHULHQFH

%

0RVWSHRSOHGLGQRWQRWLFHWKDWWKH\ZRQPRUHRIWHQLIWKH\VZLWFKHG

&

7KHSHRSOHZHUHQREHWWHUWKDQWKHSLJHRQVDWFDOFXODWLQJSUREDELOLW\

'

0RVWSHRSOHWKRXJKWWKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\RIZLQQLQJUHPDLQHGWKHVDPH

(


/HDUQLQJIURPH[SHULHQFHLVQRWDPDWKHPDWLFDOSURFHVV

&HQWUDO$YHQXHLVDORQJVWUDLJKWURDGVHYHUDONLORPHWUHVORQJ%RWKP\KRPHDQGP\RIILFHDUH
RQ&HQWUDO$YHQXHDQGWKHGLDJUDPEHORZVKRZVWKHLUSRVLWLRQVWRJHWKHUZLWKWZRVHWVRI
WUDIILFOLJKWVWKDWOLHLQEHWZHHQ




%RWKVHWVRIOLJKWVWXUQWRJUHHQIRU&HQWUDO$YHQXHWUDIILFVLPXOWDQHRXVO\VKRZLQJJUHHQIRU
H[DFWO\WZRPLQXWHVWXUQLQJJUHHQDJDLQH[DFWO\WZRPLQXWHVODWHU
,F\FOHWRZRUNHYHU\PRUQLQJDWDVWHDG\VSHHGRIPHWUHVSHUVHFRQG H[FHSWRIFRXUVH
ZKLOVWZDLWLQJDWWUDIILFOLJKWV

:KDWLVWKHORQJHVWMRXUQH\WLPH,FDQH[SHFWWKHMRXUQH\WRZRUNWRWDNH"
$

PLQXWHV

%

PLQXWHV

&

PLQXWHV

'

PLQXWHV


(

PLQXWHV

‹UCLES 2014

>7XUQ2YHU


6



7KH8QLWHG6WDWHV3RVWDO6HUYLFHKDVDQRQOLQHJXLGHWRKHOSSHRSOHXVLQJWKHLUSRVWDOVHUYLFH
7KLVLVDQH[WUDFW

)LUVW&ODVV0DLO
)LUVWFODVVPDLOPXVWEHXVHGIRUKDQGZULWWHQRUSHUVRQDOFRUUHVSRQGHQFH

)LUVW&ODVV0DLO5DWHV±VLQJOHSLHFHUDWHV
)LUVWJUDPV/HWWHUVL]HPDLO



(DFKDGGLWLRQDOJUDPVRUSDUWWKHUHRI

XSWRJUDPV

)LUVWJUDPV3DUFHO




(DFKDGGLWLRQDOJUDPVRUSDUWWKHUHRI



6WDQGDUG3RVWFDUG




/HWWHUVFPORQJFPZLGHFPWKLFNPD[LPXPZHLJKWJUDPV $Q\LWHPODUJHU
WKDQWKLVPXVWEHVHQWDVDSDUFHO


3DUFHOV'LPHQVLRQVFDQQRWH[FHHGFP

,ZDQWWRVHQGWZRLWHPVWKURXJKWKHSRVWXVLQJILUVWFODVVPDLO2QHLVFPORQJFP
ZLGHFPWKLFNDQGZHLJKVJUDPV7KHRWKHULVFPORQJFPZLGHFPWKLFN
DQGZHLJKVJUDPV
+RZPXFKZLOOLWFRVWPHWRVHQGWKHLWHPV"
$



%




&



'



(



‹UCLES 2014


7



%HORZLV7KRPDV/HVOLH)XOOHU
VEUDVVSDSHUZHLJKWZKLFKVKRZVKLVLQLWLDOV





:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVQRWDVLGHYLHZRI7KRPDV
SDSHUZHLJKWZKHQLWLVSODFHGIODWRQD
WDEOH HLWKHUVLGHXS
"

$
 
%
 
&
 
'
 
(
 

‹UCLES 2014

>7XUQ2YHU


8



$FWLRQVKRXOGEHWDNHQWRSUHYHQWWKHXVHRIFKLOGUHQDVORZFRVWODERXULQSRRU$VLDQFRXQWULHV
LQLQGXVWULHVVXFKDVHOHFWURQLFVJDUPHQWVKRHDQGWR\PDQXIDFWXUH1RWKLQJVKRUWRIDEDQRQ
FKLOGODERXULVDFFHSWDEOH&KLOGODERXULVDQDWWUDFWLYHSURSRVLWLRQIRUHPSOR\HUVFKLOGUHQKDYH
TXLFNILQJHUVJRRGH\HVLJKWDQGDUHRIWHQPRUHSURGXFWLYHWKDQDGXOWVDQGGRQRWKDYHWREH
SDLGYHU\PXFK$QGWKHUH
VDUHDG\VXSSO\WKDQNVWRWKHQXPEHURIFKLOGUHQGURSSLQJRXWRI
HGXFDWLRQEHFDXVHWKHLUSDUHQWVFDQQRWDIIRUGWRHGXFDWHWKHP,IFKLOGUHQKDYHWRZRUNWKH\DUH
GHQLHGWKHLUFKLOGKRRGDQGHGXFDWLRQ
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLIWUXHPRVWZHDNHQVWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"




$

/DZVJRYHUQLQJWKHPLQLPXPDJHIRUHPSOR\PHQWGRQRWH[LVWHYHU\ZKHUH

%

,WLVZHOONQRZQWKDWFKLOGUHQZRUNPRUHFRQVLVWHQWO\WKDQDGXOWV

&

:LWKRXWWKHFKLOGUHQ
VZDJHVWKHIDPLO\FRXOGQRWDIIRUGWRHGXFDWHWKHPDQ\ZD\

'

:LWKRXWFKHDSFKLOGODERXUWKHFRVWRIPDQXIDFWXUHGJRRGVZRXOGULVH

(

,QWHUQDWLRQDODJHQFLHVKDYHORQJEHHQSUHVVLQJIRUIUHHHGXFDWLRQIRUDOO

'XULQJWKH,QGXVWULDO5HYROXWLRQVDYY\HQWUHSUHQHXUVUHDOLVHGFDQDOVZHUHDFRVWHIIHFWLYH
HIILFLHQWZD\WRPRYHJRRGVDURXQGWKHFRXQWU\*UDGXDOO\KRZHYHUFDQDOFDUULDJHZDV
UHSODFHGZLWKRWKHUPRGHVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQWKDWZHUHIDVWHUDQGFKHDSHU,QWZHQW\ILUVWFHQWXU\
%ULWDLQPRVWEXVLQHVVHVFKRRVHWRXVHURDGKDXODJHDVDPHDQVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ:LWKWKH
ULVHLQIXHOFRVWVDQGLQWURGXFWLRQRI
ORZHPLVVLRQ
]RQHVURDGKDXODJHLVQRZEHFRPLQJOHVV

SUDFWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFDO$VWKHURDGVJULQGWRDKDOWLWZLOOQRWEHORQJEHIRUHWKHFDQDOVRQFH
DJDLQEHFRPHWKHEDFNERQHRIJRRGVWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVWKHEHVWVWDWHPHQWRIWKHIODZLQWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"
$

&DQDOWUDQVSRUWLVXQOLNHO\WREHDVIDVWDVURDGKDXODJH

%

&DQDOVDUHQRWDVFRQYHQLHQWDVWKHURDGQHWZRUN

&

,WPD\EHSRVVLEOHWRPDNHURDGKDXODJHFKHDSHU

'

,WPD\EHYHU\H[SHQVLYHWRUHRSHQWKHGLVXVHGFDQDOV

(

&DQDOVPD\QRWEHWKHRQO\DOWHUQDWLYHWRURDGKDXODJH

‹UCLES 2014


9




7KHSUHVHQFHRIDQHWKLFDOV\PEROVXFKDV
ULJKW
RU
ZURQJ
LQDSURSRVLWLRQDGGVQRWKLQJWRLWV
IDFWXDOFRQWHQW,I,VD\WRVRPHRQH
,DPQRWVWDWLQJ
DQ\WKLQJPRUHWKDQLI,KDGVLPSO\VDLG
,QDGGLQJWKDWWKLVDFWLRQLV
ZURQJ,DPQRWPDNLQJDQ\IXUWKHUVWDWHPHQWDERXWLW,DPVLPSO\HYLQFLQJPRUDOGLVDSSURYDO,W
LVDVLI,KDGVDLG
LQDWRQHRIKRUURURUZULWWHQLWZLWKH[FODPDWLRQPDUNV
DIWHULW7KHWRQHRUH[FODPDWLRQPDUNDGGVQRWKLQJWRWKHOLWHUDOPHDQLQJRIWKHVHQWHQFH,W
PHUHO\VHUYHVWRVKRZWKDWWKHH[SUHVVLRQLVDWWHQGHGE\FHUWDLQIHHOLQJVLQWKHVSHDNHU
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJEHVWH[SUHVVHVWKHPDLQFRQFOXVLRQRIWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"



$

$GGLQJWRDVWDWHPHQWWKHZRUGV
ULJKW
RU
ZURQJ
GRHVQRWDOWHULWVIDFWXDOFRQWHQW

%



MXVWPHDQV
\RXVWROHWKDWPRQH\


&

:KHQVRPHERG\VWDWHVWKDWVRPHWKLQJLVZURQJWKH\DUHPDNLQJDVWDWHPHQWRIIDFW

'

+RZSHRSOHIHHODERXWDQDFWLRQLVQRWUHOHYDQWWRWKHLVVXHRIZKHWKHULWLVULJKWRUZURQJ

(

6D\LQJWKDWVRPHWKLQJLVULJKWRUZURQJLVMXVWDZD\RIVKRZLQJGLVDSSURYDO

'DYLGLVSODQQLQJDKROLGD\IRUKLPVHOIDQGKLVZLIH+HKDVDEXGJHWRI…EXWZLVKHVWR
UHWDLQDERXW…IRUVSHQGLQJPRQH\%HORZLVDWDEOHVKRZLQJGLIIHUHQWKROLGD\SRVVLELOLWLHV

5HWXUQIOLJKW
)HUU\DQG
&DUKLUHDQG
+RWHO
WUDLQ
IXHO
DFFRPPRGDWLRQ
0RVFRZ

…SHU
…SHU
1$
…SHUQLJKWIRU
SHUVRQ
SHUVRQ
RQO\
&\SUXV
…SHU
1$
1$
…SHUSHUVRQ
SHUVRQ
SHUQLJKW
…SHU
1$
…SHUZHHNSHU
%DUFHORQD
…SHU
SHUVRQ
SHUVRQ
SHUVRQ
3DULV
…SHU
…SHU
1$
…SHUQLJKWSHU
SHUVRQ
SHUVRQ
URRPIRU

6FRWODQG
1$
1$
…SHUGD\
…SHUQLJKWIRU
RQO\
5RPH
…SHU
…SHU
1$
…SHUQLJKWIRU
SHUVRQ
SHUVRQ
RQO\
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJKROLGD\SRVVLELOLWLHVOHDYHVKLPZLWKDVQHDUWR…DVSRVVLEOH"
$

7HQQLJKWVLQ0RVFRZWUDYHOOLQJE\IHUU\DQGWUDLQ

%

7ZHOYHQLJKWVLQ&\SUXV

&

7ZHOYHGD\VDQGQLJKWVLQ6FRWODQG

'

7ZHOYHQLJKWVLQ5RPHWUDYHOOLQJE\SODQH


(

6HYHQQLJKWVLQ3DULVWUDYHOOLQJE\SODQH

‹UCLES 2014

>7XUQ2YHU


10



7KHWDEOHEHORZVKRZVWKHHQHUJ\YDOXHVIRUWKHPDLQIRRGVXVHGE\YROXQWHHUZDUGHQVDWD
ZLOGELUGUHVHUYHWRSUHSDUHDYDULHW\RIIHHGPL[HV

)RRG

(QHUJ\SHUJ
FDORULHV


PHDOZRUPV



SHDQXWV




DSSOHV



RDWV



QLJHUVHHG



FKHHVH



VXQIORZHUVHHGV



UDLVLQV



VXQIORZHUKHDUWV



VXHW





$WUDLQHHYROXQWHHUKDVEHHQDVNHGWRSUHSDUHDVDPSOHRIDVSHFLDOPL[WRSURYLGHH[DFWO\
FDORULHV+HKDVZHLJKHGRXWWKHILUVWIRXULQJUHGLHQWVEXWFDQQRWUHDGWKHUHTXLUHGPDVV
RIWKHILQDOLQJUHGLHQWEHFDXVHRIDQLQNEORW7KLVLVZKDWKDVEHHQZHLJKHGRXWVRIDU

PHDOZRUPVJDSSOHJUDLVLQVJVXHWJ
:KDWPDVVRIVXQIORZHUVHHGVPXVWEHXVHGWRVXFFHVVIXOO\FRPSOHWHWKHWDVN"
$

J

%

J

&

J

'

J

(

J


‹UCLES 2014


11



6XHWDNHVKHUGRJ)UH\DWRWKHSDUN6KHWKURZVDVWLFNIRU)UH\DWRIHWFK)UH\DUXQVWRFROOHFW
WKHVWLFNDQGEULQJLWEDFNWR6XH:KLOH)UH\DLVFROOHFWLQJWKHVWLFN6XHZDONVVORZO\WRZDUGV
)UH\D
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJJUDSKVFRXOGFRUUHFWO\VKRZWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQ6XHDQG)UH\D"
$

%

 
&

 
'

 

 

(

 

‹UCLES 2014


>7XUQ2YHU


12



7KHIXQGLQJRIWKH%%&WKURXJKDXQLYHUVDOOLFHQVLQJV\VWHPLVFRQVLGHUHGE\PDQ\WREH
RXWGDWHGDQGXQIDLU7KHUHVHHPWREHRQO\DOLPLWHGQXPEHURIRSWLRQVIRUWKHFRQWLQXHGIXQGLQJ
RIWKLVSXEOLFEURDGFDVWLQJQHWZRUN)LUVWO\WKHOLFHQFHIHHV\VWHPFRXOGFRQWLQXHDVDWSUHVHQW
6HFRQGO\WKH%%&FRXOGUDLVHLWVRZQUHYHQXHDVDFRPPHUFLDOFRPSDQ\WKURXJKDGYHUWLVLQJ
DQGVSRQVRUVKLS)LQDOO\WKH%%&FRXOGEHSDLGIRUOLNHRWKHUSDUWVRIWKHSXEOLFVHFWRUWKURXJK
JHQHUDOWD[DWLRQ

)XQGLQJRIWKH%%&WKURXJKWD[DWLRQPD\UDLVHTXHVWLRQVDERXWWKH%%&
VLQGHSHQGHQFHIURP
JRYHUQPHQW7KLVLQGHSHQGHQFHPLJKWDOVREHSXWDWULVNLIWKH%%&KDGWRRSHUDWHDVD
FRPPHUFLDOFRPSDQ\,WPLJKWEHXQGXO\LQIOXHQFHGE\LWVDGYHUWLVLQJDQGVSRQVRUVKLS
FXVWRPHUVXQOHVVVHULRXVVDIHJXDUGVDUHSXWLQSODFH
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJFDQEHGUDZQDVDFRQFOXVLRQIURPWKHDERYHSDVVDJH"



$

7KHUHLVQRDOWHUQDWLYHWRWKHOLFHQFHIHH

%


7KHLQGHSHQGHQFHRIWKH%%&LVLQHYLWDEO\DWULVN

&

$OWKRXJKQRWSHUIHFWWKHOLFHQFHIHHLVWKHEHVWRSWLRQ

'

*HQHUDOWD[DWLRQZLOOQRWEHDVHIILFLHQWLQUDLVLQJUHYHQXHDVWKHOLFHQFHIHH

(

&RPPHUFLDODGYHUWLVLQJRQWKH%%&ZLOOGDPDJHWKHUHYHQXHSURVSHFWVRIWKH
FRPPHUFLDOEURDGFDVWHUV

$SDODHRQWRORJLVWKDVDUJXHGWKDW7UH[FRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQDSUHGDWRU+HVD\VWKLVEHFDXVH
IHZSUHGDWRUVKDYHVPDOOH\HV QHHGHGWRVHHSUH\
VPDOODUPV QHHGHGWRKROGSUH\
DQG
KXJHOHJV PHDQLQJVORZVSHHG
DOORIZKLFKDUHWUXHRI7UH[DQGWKDWWKHUHLVQRHYLGHQFHIRU
SUHGDWLRQVXFKDVERQHVZLWK7UH[WHHWKHPEHGGHGLQWKHP,QVWHDGKHDUJXHVLWPXVWKDYH
EHHQDVFDYHQJHUDVLWVVNXOOVKRZVLWKDGDJRRGVHQVHRIVPHOODQGLWVOHJVZHUHVXLWHGIRU
ZDONLQJORQJGLVWDQFHV2WKHUVFLHQWLVWVGLVDJUHHSRLQWLQJRXWWKDWPDQ\SUHGDWRUVGRQRWXVH
IRUHOLPEVLQKXQWLQJDQGWKDWWKHVSHHGRIDQ\GLQRVDXULVYHU\KDUGWRDVVHVV
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVDQXQGHUO\LQJDVVXPSWLRQRIWKHSDODHRQWRORJLVW
VDUJXPHQW"
$

3UHGDWRUVGRQRWOHDYHWKHLUWHHWKHPEHGGHGLQWKHERQHVRIWKHLUYLFWLPV


%

*HQHUDOLVDWLRQVFDQQRWEHPDGHEHWZHHQPRGHUQDQGSUHKLVWRULFSHULRGV

&

7UH[FRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQERWKDVFDYHQJHUDQGDSUHGDWRU

'

$OOSUHGDWRUVPXVWEHDEOHWRPRYHTXLFNO\

(

7KHUHDUHQRWHQRXJKIRVVLOLVHGUHPDLQV\HWIRUVFLHQWLVWVWRPDNHDMXGJHPHQW

‹UCLES 2014


13



7KHUHZDVDSHUFHQWGHFOLQHLQSXEOLFOLEUDU\XVHLQWKH8.EHWZHHQDQG
DFFRUGLQJWRDUHSRUWE\&$%( 7KH&RPPLVVLRQIRU$UFKLWHFWXUHDQGWKH%XLOW(QYLURQPHQW

7KH\VXJJHVWWKLVLVQRWGXHWRDODFNRISXEOLFLQWHUHVWLQUHDGLQJERRNV5DWKHULWLVWKH
DXWKRULWDULDQVW\OHDQGLPDJHRIOLEUDULHVZLWKWKHLUUXOHVDERXWVLOHQFHDQGILQHVIRUODWHUHWXUQV
RIERRNV7KRVHIHZOLEUDULHVWKDWKDYHPRYHGDZD\IURPWKLVLPDJHVXFKDVWKHRQHLQ

%RXUQHPRXWKZKLFKSURYLGHFDIHVDQG
FKLOORXW
]RQHVKDYHVHHQDSHUFHQWLQFUHDVHLQ
OLEUDU\XVH7KHUHIRUHLWLVFOHDUWKDWWKHIXWXUHRIWKHIXQFWLRQRIWKH8.OLEUDU\VHUYLFHZLOOEH
PRUHDVVXUHGLIDOOOLEUDULHVIROORZWKLVOHDG
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLIWUXHZRXOGPRVWVWUHQJWKHQWKHDERYHDUJXPHQW"



$

7KHGHFOLQHLQSXEOLFOLEUDU\XVHKDVQRWRFFXUUHGLQRWKHU(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV

%

7KHPDLQXVHUVRISXEOLFOLEUDULHVDUHVFKRROFKLOGUHQORRNLQJIRUUHIHUHQFHERRNV

&

%RRNVKRSVKDYHH[SHULHQFHGDQLQFUHDVHLQVDOHVVLQFH

'

7KHXVHRIFRPSXWHUVLQOLEUDULHVKDVLQFUHDVHGRYHUWKHVDPHSHULRG

(

)HZSHRSOHZKRXVHQHZVW\OHOLEUDULHVXVHWKHPWRERUURZERRNV

$PDLQURDGFURVVHVDVLGHURDGDQGWKHMXQFWLRQLVFRQWUROOHGE\DVHWRIWUDIILFOLJKWV7KH

QRUPDOVHTXHQFHLVIRUWKHOLJKWVWREHJUHHQIRUVHFRQGVRQWKHPDLQURDGIROORZHGE\
VHFRQGVRIJUHHQIRUWKHVLGHURDG7KHUHLVDOVRDSHGHVWULDQSKDVHLQWKHOLJKWVZKHQDOOWKH
URDGOLJKWVDUHUHG,IDSHGHVWULDQSUHVVHVDEXWWRQWRFURVVDQ\RIWKHURDGVWKHQDIWHUWKHVLGH
URDGOLJKWVKDYHEHHQJUHHQWKHSHGHVWULDQOLJKWVWXUQJUHHQIRUVHFRQGV)ROORZLQJD
SHGHVWULDQSKDVHWKHPDLQURDGJUHHQSHULRGLVLQFUHDVHGWRVHFRQGVWRFOHDUWKHEXLOGXS
:KHQHYHUDQ\RIWKHOLJKWVFKDQJHWKHUHLVDWZRVHFRQGSHULRGZKHQDOOOLJKWVDUHUHG7KH
WLPHRQDPEHULVLQFOXGHGLQWKHJUHHQWLPHVJLYHQDERYH
:KDWLVWKHORQJHVWWLPHWUDIILFRQWKHVLGHURDGZLOOKDYHWRZDLWIRUWKHLUOLJKWVWRJRJUHHQ"
$

VHFRQGV

%

VHFRQGV

&

VHFRQGV

'

VHFRQGV

(

VHFRQGV

‹UCLES 2014


>7XUQ2YHU


14



(OVLHKDVVL[JUDQGFKLOGUHQ7KHLUELUWKGD\VDUHDVIROORZV

5\DQ
WK)HEUXDU\
5HEHFFD
UG0D\
5LFKDUG
WK0D\
5DOSK
WK6HSWHPEHU
5XWK
WK1RYHPEHU
5REHUW
WK'HFHPEHU

5HPDUNDEO\LQQRQOHDS\HDUVWKHER\V
ELUWKGD\VDUHRQWKHWKWKWKDQGWKGD\V
RIWKH\HDUZKLOVWWKHJLUOV
ELUWKGD\VDUHRQWKHUGDQGVWGD\VDQGDOOVL[DUHRQ
GLIIHUHQWGD\VRIWKHZHHN
:KLFKRWKHUJUDQGFKLOG
VELUWKGD\LVRQWKHVDPHGD\RIWKHZHHNDV5\DQ
VLQDOHDS\HDU"

$

5DOSK

%

5HEHFFD

&

5LFKDUG

'

5REHUW

(

5XWK

‹UCLES 2014


15



:KHQHYHUP\IULHQG$OLVWDLUZULWHVWRPHKHGRHVVRHQWLUHO\LQFRGH+HDOZD\VXVHVV\PEROV
IRUOHWWHUVEXWFKDQJHVWKHFRGHHDFKWLPHVRDQ\SDUWLFXODUV\PEROGRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\VWDQG
IRUWKHVDPHOHWWHURIWKHDOSKDEHWHYHU\WLPH

,DOZD\VVWDUWWRFUDFNWKHFRGHE\ORRNLQJDWKRZKHKDVZULWWHQKLVQDPHDWWKHHQGRIKLV
OHWWHU)RULQVWDQFHODVWWLPHKHZDV





,QP\ODVWOHWWHUWRKLP,DVNHGKLPZKHQKHLQWHQGVWRYLVLWPHQH[W7RGD\,KDYHUHFHLYHGD
UHSO\FRQVLVWLQJRIMXVWRQHZRUGDVIROORZV


:KHQFDQ,DVVXPHWKDWKHLQWHQGVWRDSSHDU"



$

7202552:

%

7+856'$<

&

6$785'$<

'

129(0%(5


(

620(7,0(

7KH*RYHUQPHQWDUHWUDQVIHUULQJWKHFRVWRIDXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQIURPWKHVWDWHWRWKHVWXGHQW
7KLVLVGHVFULEHGDVDUHIRUPZKLFKZLOOSXWXQLYHUVLWLHV
ILQDQFHRQDVXVWDLQDEOHIRRWLQJZLWK
PRUHIUHHGRPDQGOHVVEXUHDXFUDF\,QDGGLWLRQLWZLOOOHDGWRDJUHDWHUFKRLFHIRUVWXGHQWVZLWK
DIRFXVRQKLJKTXDOLW\WHDFKLQJ7KHULVHLQWXLWLRQIHHVWR…SHU\HDUPDNLQJWKHFRVWRID
WKUHH±\HDUGHJUHH…VKRXOGQRWEHFRQVLGHUHGDVWRRKLJK$IWHUDOOWKHFRVWRID
0HUFHGHV%HQ]%&ODVV6SRUWV0RGHOLVDERXWWKHVDPHSULFHRQWKHURDGDVDWKUHH\HDU
GHJUHH7KLVVKRXOGSXWWKHULVHLQWXLWLRQIHHVLQWRSHUVSHFWLYHDQGZHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDWWKH
WXLWLRQIHHVDUHYHU\UHDVRQDEOH
:KLFKRQHRIWKHIROORZLQJLVWKHEHVWVWDWHPHQWRIWKHIODZLQWKLVDUJXPHQW"
$

$XQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQLVZRUWKPRUHWKDQDFDU

%

7KHFRVWRIDFDULVQRWUHOHYDQW

&

7UDQVIHUULQJWKHFRVWIURPWKHVWDWHWRWKHVWXGHQWLVQRWIDLU

'

7KHUHLVQRHYLGHQFHWKDWVWXGHQWVZLOOKDYHJUHDWHUFKRLFH


(

8QLYHUVLWLHVZLOOKDYHWRUDLVHWKHIHHVLQIXWXUH

‹UCLES 2014

>7XUQ2YHU


×