Tài liệu Internet Trends March 18, 2008 pptx

Internet Trends
March 18, 2008
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2
Internet Trends
• Usage Patterns
• Social Networking
• Widget-ization + Component-ization
• Measurability + Transparency + Customer Satisfaction
• Video
• Monetization
• Mobile
• Emerging Markets
• Recession
3
Changes in Usage Patterns
4
0
5,000,000
10,000,000

15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
2005E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E
IP Traffic (TB / month)
Total Consumer Business
Global IP Traffic
Consumers Leading Way –
58% CAGR in IP Traffic, 2005E-2011E
Source: Cisco Systems, Global IP Traffic Forecast and Methodology; Mobility segment (0.1% of traffic in 2007) not displayed
Consumer IP traffic
surpasses Business
5
Consumer Information Technology –
Advancing Faster Than Enterprise
Source: Interview with Vauhini Vara, ‘The Wall Street Journal’, 3/18/08
Fifteen years ago, enterprise technology was higher-quality
than consumer technology. That's not true anymore. It
used to be that you used enterprise technology because
you wanted uptime, security and speed. None of those
things are as good in enterprise software anymore [as they
are in some consumer software].
Douglas Merrill
Google Chief Information Officer, 3/18/08
6
YouTube + Facebook Page Views > Yahoo! or Google –
Massive Transition in Available Ad Units & Supply > Demand
2002
10

8
6
4
2
0
Daily Page Views (%)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alexa Global Traffic – Relative Page Views
Source: Alexa Global Traffic as of 3/12/08
7
Worldwide Online Category Growth vs. Penetration
Social Networking –
Fast Growth + Low Penetration
Visitor Growth by Category (1/07-1/08)
Category Penetration (% of Online Users)
Source: comScore ‘Digital World – State of the Internet’ 3/08
8
Social Networking –
Significant Share Gains of Internet Traffic
Rank
Web site
2005
(1)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

8
9
10
yahoo.com
msn.com
google.com
ebay.com
amazon.com
microsoft.com
myspace.com
google.co.uk
aol.com
go.com
Traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of
page views / users (geometric mean of the two quantities averaged over time).
Rank
Web site
2008
(2)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
yahoo.com

youtube.com
live.com
google.com
myspace.com
facebook.com
msn.com
hi5.com
wikipedia.org
orkut.com
Alexa Global Traffic Rankings
(1) Rankings as of 12/31/05, excludes Microsoft Passport; (2) Rankings as of 3/12/08
Source: Alexa Global Traffic Rankings, Morgan Stanley Research
9
6%
14%
8%
22%
35%
16%
All Other
Communications
Social Connections
Shopping & Travel
Entertainment & Leisure
Work, Business & Education
Worldwide Share of
Online Time
(1)
Category
didn’t exist 3

years ago
16%
38%
37%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Yahoo! Mail Facebook
% of Total Minutes
Age 15-24 Age 44+
Connecting – Younger Users Via Social
Networks + Older Users Via E-Mail?
(2)
Social Networking –
Connectivity Changing…Is E-Mail Becoming Archaic?
Source: (1) comScore ‘Digital World – State of the Internet’ 3/08; (2) comScore global 1/08
10
Next Generation Assets –
YouTube + Facebook + Skype + PayPal
Users Y/Y Growth Comments
258MM
(1)
+94%
#3 site in global minutes; 51% of users go to
YouTube weekly or more; 50% watch all
videos to the end; ongoing copyright
challenges; 52% of 18-34 year-olds share

videos with friends / colleagues often
(1,3)
101MM
(1)
+305%
#4 site in global minutes; 67MM+ active
users; >50% of active users return daily; 20K
applications + 95% of Facebook members
have used at least one
(1,4)
276MM
(2)
+61%
$1.67 annualized revenue per registered user
(+9% Y/Y) on peer-to-peer network; 1.6B
Skype Out minutes (+10% Y/Y); 11.9B Skype-
to-Skype minutes (+25% Y/Y)
(2)
57MM
(2)
+16%
Payment volume +35% Y/Y; On-eBay / off-
eBay payment volume +17% / +66% Y/Y (to
44% of TPV); Average transaction size of
$68.88 (+10% Y/Y)
(2)
Source: (1) comScore global 1/08; (2) eBay CQ4, Morgan Stanley Research; (3) YouTube; (4) Facebook
11
Social Networking –
Changing the Way People Think About ‘Presence’

12Source: USC Annenberg School: Digital Future Report 2007
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Internet Television Radio Newspaper Personal
Source
% of Users Age 17+ Responding
Important / Very Important
Internet – Importance as Source of Information
73%
80%
68%
63% 63%
Internet + Personal Sources = Most Importance Sources of
Information…Essence of a Social Network
13
Facebook –
Rapid User / Usage Growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08
Total Unique Visitors (MM)

0
5
10
15
20
25
Total Minutes (B)
Total Unique Visitors (MM) Total Minutes (B)
Facebook Global Traffic
Source: comScore global 1/08, Facebook 3/08, Morgan Stanley Research
• 101MM visitors +305% Y/Y (67MM+ active users), 20B minutes (#4 globally behind Yahoo!, Live,
and YouTube), +363% Y/Y; 250K new registrations per day since 1/07; >50% of active users return
daily
(Facebook 3/08, comScore 1/08)
• 55K+ regional / work-related / collegiate / high school networks (>50% outside of college); Fastest
growing demographic is those 25+ years old; 85% market share of 4-year US universities
(Facebook 3/08)
• 14MM+ photos uploaded daily; 6MM+ active user groups on site (Facebook 3/08)
• Top non-US active users: UK (8MM+), Canada (7MM+), Turkey, Australia, France, Sweden,
Norway, Columbia, and South Africa
(Facebook 3/08)
14
Application
Installs (% Active Users)
Facebook –
Top Applications
• In 5/07, Facebook opened its platform to third-party developers, allowing anyone to create widgets
for use on Facebook pages
• 20K applications, 859MM installations, 34MM usages per day since APIs opened – may be
unprecedented ramp

(adonomics.com 3/08)
• Early to understand that individuals had the ability to innovate faster than it could, while users would
govern quality / value as they customized their profiles
Super Wall
Top Friends
FunWall
SuperPoke!
Movies
Likeness
Video
Hug Me
iLike
Quizzes
Company
RockYou!
Slide
Slide
Slide
Flixster
RockYou!
Facebook
RockYou!
iLike
N/A
(2)
28MM (8%)
26MM (7%)
25MM (9%)
21MM (2%)
20MM (3%)

16MM (2%)
16MM
(1)
13MM (2%)
12MM (3%)
12MM (1%)
(1) Active user data unavailable; (2) E. Diep / J. Winterhalter; Source: adonomics.com 3/12/08
15
• Facebook offers a social network that is both standardized + self-controlled / flexible – a highly
personalized first-stop portal for online connectivity – users can program their pages with growing
number of drag-and-drop applications (aka widgets)
• Users like the ability to express themselves + connect with friends in a protected environment where
they know / trust people in their network + don’t feel exploited / spammed by intrusive ads
Source: MySpace, Facebook
Less instrusive ads
?
Cleaner UI
?
Personalized ad platform
Facebook –
Why is it Growing Faster than MySpace?
‘Friends’ section
more prominent
Personalized
News Feed
16
Facebook –
‘Presence’ Via Mobiles 24x7
Source: Facebook; C. Messina on flickr
17

User restaurant
rating entered
Facebook prompt…
…Appears on Facebook
profile / News Feed
Becoming a ‘fan’
appears on News /
Mini-Feed
Source: Facebook, New York Times
Facebook Ads –
Monetizing Word of Mouth / Conversations
18
$6.00
$8.05
$4.64
$2.26
$3.23
$1.68
$0
$3
$6
$9
Global US Non-US
Average $ Spent
Paid downloads All downloads
Paid
38%
Free
62%
Nine Inch Nails

Radiohead
• In Rainbows ‘pay what you want’ online
release – higher profit to the band than
traditional record?
• Ghosts I-IV online release – 800K
transactions + $1.6MM sales in first week
(1)
Music –
Monetizing Word of Mouth
Global Downloads
(2)
Source: (1) Billboard 3/14/07, screenshots from Nine Inch Nails website; (2) comScore study 11/5/07, screenshots from Radiohead website
19
Widget-ization + Component-ization of Web –
Users in Control of What They Want When They Want It
20
Not Your Father’s ‘Widget’
Source: ReadWriteWeb, RockYou!, Yahoo!, Weather Channel, Google, Amazon.com, Facebook
A Web widget can be best described as a mini application that can add
functionality to your web page, blog, social profile, etc. If you find a widget that you
like, you simply copy and paste some code and add it to the HTML of your web
page. Photo galleries, news, videos, advertising, mp3 players and pregnancy
countdown tickers! You name it, there is probably a widget that does it.
David Lenehan, ReadWriteWeb
Rock You –
‘Super Wall’ for Facebook
Yahoo! –
Finance for iPhone
Weather Channel –
Forecast for iGoogle

Amazon.com –
‘Giver’ for Facebook
21
iGoogle + Yahoo! Mobile
Source: Google, Yahoo!
Search
Gmail
Movie
showtimes
YouTube
videos
Weather
News
Maps
Wikipedia
Add a tab +
customize
‘gadgets’
3
rd
party widgets
in Yahoo! Go 3.0
22
The BBC! –
@ www.bbc.com + Facebook + YouTube…
Source: BBC
23
In Recession, Measurability + Transparency + Customer
Satisfaction May Be More Important Than Ever
24

Personalization + Targeting Improvements –
Driving Material Revenue
What other
customers are
thinking
What other
customers
are buying
What other
customers
are doing
What other
customers
are saying
Google ads:
Improvements in relevance
Amazon.com recommendation engine:
Leveraging data
Source: Amazon.com, Google
25
1. iphone
2. badoo
3. facebook
4. dailymotion
5. webkinz
6. youtube
7. ebuddy
8. second life
9. hi5
10. club penguin

Google Zeitgeist –
Predictive Power of Data
Fast Gainers by Quarter - 2007
Source: Google Year-End Zeitgeist, 2007
Fastest Rising (global)
1. iphone
2. webkinz
3. tmz
4. transformers
5. youtube
6. club penguin
7. myspace
8. heroes
9. facebook
10. anna nicole smith
Fastest Rising (US)