Changing-Tides_FINAL_LOW-RES-081516

CHANGING TIDES
How Sea-level Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation
Economies ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

1


Changing Tides
How Sea-level Rise Harms Wildlife
and Recreation Economies ALONG
THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD
Copyright © 2016 National Wildlife Federation

Lead Authors: Lauren Anderson, Patty Glick, Shannon Heyck-Williams, and Jim Murphy.

We appreciate the work and dedication to conservation of all National Wildlife Federation staff and our 50
affiliate partners, which help make efforts like this possible. In particular, we wish to thank the following
contributors to this report:

Catherine Bowes, Zach Cockrum, Hilary Falk, Manley Fuller, Melissa Gaydos, Tim Gestwicki, Steve Gilbert,
Brenna Goggin, Ben Gregg, Amber Hewett, Christopher Hilke, Nicole Holstein, Tara Losoff, Jim Lyon, Todd Martin,
Jen Mihills, Eric Orff, Vanessa Peña, Ed Perry, Joshua Saks, Taj Schottland, Bruce Stein, and Ron Warnken.
This report was made possible by the many donors and supporters of the National Wildlife Federation.

Suggested citation: Anderson, L., P. Glick, S. Heyck-Williams, and J. Murphy. 2016. Changing Tides: How Sea-Level
Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.
National Wildlife Federation: Washington, DC.
Cover image: Loggerhead sea turtle. Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

National Wildlife Federation
1990 K Street NW
Washington, DC 20006
www.nwf.org

2

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Table of CONTENTS
Executive Summary....................................................................

1

INTRODUCTION.............................................................................

4

Effects of Sea-level Rise on America’s East Coast ..................

5

State Impacts: The Cost of Rising Seas in the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast......................................................

7

Southeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7

Florida: The Everglades and Florida Keys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Georgia: Sapelo Island and Blackbeard National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
South Carolina: Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve

.......................................................................

7
9

10

North Carolina: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Mid-Atlantic Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Virginia: Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Maryland: Assateague Island and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge

....................................................

14

Delaware: Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Pennsylvania: John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
New Jersey: Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife Management Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
New York: Gateway National Recreation Area and Jamaica Bay
Northeast Region

...............................................................

............................................................................................................................

Connecticut: Long Island Sound and Barn Island Wildlife Management Area

............................................

19
20
20

Rhode Island: Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Massachusetts: Plum Island and the Great Marsh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
New Hampshire: Hampton-Seabrook Estuary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Maine: Acadia National Park . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Taking Action............................................................................. 25

Policy Recommendations: Two Pillars for Climate Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

ENDNOTES................................................................................... 29

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

ii


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Royal terns. Photo: Rachel Kramer.

S

tates along the Eastern Seaboard are already
feeling the impacts of climate change. Climate
change, which is caused by the atmospheric
build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs)
from fossil fuel combustion and other human activities,
contributes to higher ocean temperatures (which
in turn have been linked to increased intensity and
frequency of hurricanes) and sea-level rise. As such,
our coasts and communities, even ones inland, are
facing growing challenges from erosion, saltwater
intrusion, and floods. These impacts have far reaching
consequences for both natural and human communities
along the coast from Miami to Maine.
Coasts are critical to wildlife and people. Communities
across the region depend on coastal beaches, bays,
and islands for a wide array of benefits. These unique
ecosystems provide crucial habitat for wildlife such

1

as fish and waterfowl and support robust tourism and
recreation economies. They also serve as natural buffers
against potentially damaging storms and, increasingly,
against rising sea levels.

As GHG emissions have increased over the last century,
warming seawater has expanded, glaciers have melted,

and the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica
have begun to weaken and break off into the ocean.
This has led to an 8 inch rise in global average sea level
over the past century. As global temperatures continue
to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable. Exactly
how much and how fast sea-level rise will occur in the
decades to come is difficult to determine, as it depends on
how much global GHG emissions will increase and how
glaciers and ice sheets will react to rising temperatures.
What is clear, however, is that the more GHG emissions
continue to increase, the higher sea level will climb.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Projections for sea-level rise give reasons for
concern. According to the 2014 U.S. National Climate
Assessment, global average sea level is estimated to
rise another one to four feet by the end of this century,
with some areas seeing even greater increases due to
localized factors such as land subsidence.1

Even at the lower end of sea-level rise projections, the
impacts on wildlife habitats and human communities
could be devastating. And yet, recent science suggests
that the higher-range scenario underestimates the
amount of sea-level rise we could experience. In this
scenario, sea levels are projected to rise by 6.6 feet
by 2100 if drastic emission cuts are not made soon.2
Totals could reach well over that amount within a few

centuries if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt
significantly. Recent evidence suggests this scenario is
increasingly likely if GHG emissions continue to rise.3,4
Consider that under a 6.6 foot sea-level rise scenario
alone, large areas of coastal cities, including parts of
Boston, Atlantic City, Charleston, Virginia Beach, and
Miami, would be under water.

the near future, by taking actions to resist impacts and
improve coastal resilience—a strategy referred to as
adaptation. In the wake of increasingly dire projections
for sea-level rise, however, it is equally essential that we
prevent the worst outcomes by significantly reducing
the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions—a strategy
known as mitigation.
To protect our communities and natural resources, we
should swiftly implement a two-pronged strategy of
mitigation and adaptation: 1) dramatically reduce our
GHG emissions to slow and eventually stop the impacts
of climate change, and 2) proactively prepare for
impacts that cannot be avoided.

Americans are eager for answers. At the start of 2016,
70% of Americans believed that climate change was
occurring.8 As people increasingly experience the
negative consequences of carbon pollution, the need for
action becomes clearer.

In addition to sea-level rise, climate change presents
another risk to our coasts: more intense and damaging

storms. An increase in the frequency and intensity of
Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1980s has been
linked, in part, to warmer surface water temperatures.5
While projections for the future are somewhat
uncertain, studies suggest that in the coming decades
the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms
will increase and that the amount of rainfall associated
with hurricanes will be greater. Sea-level rise is
exacerbating the impacts of storm surges— by allowing
the incoming domes of water to reach farther inland—a
trend that is expected to continue.6 By mid-century,
certain areas could experience “100-year” flooding
events (i.e., that have a 1% annual chance of occurring)
more frequently—even annually—because higher sea
levels make them more likely to occur. 7
As the risks from sea-level rise continue to grow, so,
too, has the impetus for states and communities to
prepare for changes that are occurring, or will occur in

Cormorant. Photo: Candy Childrey.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

2


Horned grebe pair. Photo: Ken Conger.

Policymakers on the federal, state and local levels
can and should reduce carbon emissions by enacting

policies that speed the transition from carbon-intensive
fossil fuel extraction, development and combustion to
clean renewable energy sources, and by incorporating
carbon storage incentives and requirements into
forestry and land use decisions. In light of the growing
evidence that human-induced climate change is already
altering our landscape and natural resources, America
must become far more diligent in its effort to craft
meaningful and efficient solutions.

Mitigation

Adaptation

•

•

•
•
•
•
•
•

3

This report demonstrates the risks to wildlife,
recreation, and local economies of sea-level rise by
illustrating key impacts in 15 eastern U.S. states:

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina,
Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey,
New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts,
New Hampshire, and Maine. It then lays out policy
solutions to both mitigate the threat of, and adapt to, a
changing climate. Specifically the report recommends:

Set a carbon price to achieve economy-wide
emission reductions
Implement the Clean Power Plan to transition to a
clean energy economy
Expand wildlife-friendly renewable energy such as
responsibly developed wind and solar
Limit methane waste from oil and gas development
Reduce and better account for carbon impacts of
fossil fuel development
Support clean transportation such as low-emission
vehicles and public transit
Enhance ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration

•
•
•
•
•

Assess coastal climate risks and craft plans to reduce
those risks
Curb development that degrades the resilience of
coastal ecosystems

Improve opportunities for habitat migration
Reform coastal permitting policies to encourage
natural infrastructure
Reform the National Flood Insurance Program
to stop encouraging development in risky areas
Ensure adaptation policies benefit all members of
society, including those most vulnerable

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


INTRODUCTION

T

he East Coast is fortunate to have a
tremendous diversity of tidal waterways,
wetlands, barrier islands, and other coastal
habitats, which support a wide variety of fish and
wildlife species and enhance the economies and quality
of life of nearby communities. Each year, beach
visitation, recreational fishing, and wildlife viewing
activities alone contribute tens of billions of dollars to
East Coast states.9
These ecosystems also have natural abilities to adapt
to the dynamic conditions along eastern shorelines.
Barrier islands naturally shift and reform after
storms, and tidal marshland has an extraordinary
ability to adapt to changes in inundation and salinity
from saltwater intrusion. However, these remarkable

capacities are being overwhelmed by sea-level
rise, particularly where such habitats have already
been damaged by development, coastal armoring
(developing physical barriers such as sea walls), and
other activities.

The extraction, development, and combustion of fossil
fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas are the primary
forces driving human-caused climate change. For
America’s coastal communities, accelerating sea-level
rise due to the expansion of warming ocean water and
melting glaciers and ice sheets is among the most
direct and certain consequences of climate change.
The average global sea level rose about 8 inches over
the past century, and since the early 1990s the rate
of sea-level rise has been accelerating.10 As global
temperatures continue to increase, further sea-level
rise is inevitable.

Recent scenarios developed for the 2014 U.S. National
Climate Assessment (NCA) suggest that sea-level rise
will range from an additional 8 inches (over 1992
levels) to 6.6 feet by the end of the century, with a midrange estimate of 1-4 feet.11

Even under the low-end sea level projections, which
assumes, optimistically, that the world will achieve
significant near-term reductions in GHG emissions,
coastal communities will face significant impacts. Yet
there is compelling evidence that even the high-end
projections, which assume a continued increase in

global emissions, likely underestimate potential sealevel rise.12 For example, research shows that, under
a 4°C (7.2°F) increase in global average temperature,
accelerating ice loss on Greenland and Antarctica would
contribute to possibly hundreds of feet of sea-level rise
within a matter of just a few centuries.13,14
What’s more, sea-level rise is not uniform along the
nation’s coastlines. A number of factors, including
variability in ocean currents and vertical land
movement, can affect relative sea level changes at
regional and local scales. In many places along the
East Coast, for example, land subsidence due to
soil compaction and activities such as groundwater
extraction mean that actual sea-level rise will be
greater than the global average and, thus, will have
more significant impacts.
Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change: 1880 - 2014

This graph depicts annual absolute sea level change averaged
over the entire Earth’s ocean surface. The tidal gauges measure
relative sea level along the coast and satellite images examine
absolute sea level change over the entire ocean. Source: EPA,
Climate Change Indicators in the United States.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

4


Effects of Sea-level Rise
ON America’s East Coast

T

here are numerous impacts from sea-level
rise along the East Coast. In this report,
we focus on nine ways in which sea-level
rise is predicted to affect key East Coast natural systems
that are vital for wildlife, recreation economies, and
local communities.

NINE IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL
RISE ON NATURAL SYSTEMS
AND COMMUNITIES:
1) Increased coastal flooding: Many cities

along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States face
increasing risk of coastal flooding. Based on a global
analysis that ranks cities for exposure of vulnerable
assets to coastal flooding in 2070 (due to both climate
change and other socio-economic factors), Miami

stands to lose the most in financial assets of any coastal
city—$3.5 trillion. New York City is ranked third,
after the coastal city of Guangzhou in China.15 While
“mega cities” like New York and Miami have the most
economic assets at risk, poorer areas along the coast
have less ability to adapt to or escape the impacts of
sea-level rise and extreme weather events. This means
they, too, are highly vulnerable to impacts of climate
change, which threatens important values such as

social and cultural cohesion. The populations of coastal
communities are also expected to increase in the future,
placing more people in danger and adding risk to socioeconomic systems.

2) Saltwater intrusion into the freshwater
that supplies communities and wildlife:

Sea-level rise will impact the fresh water table along
the coast as salt water seeps into freshwater aquifers.

INCREASED
COASTAL
FLOODING
CULTURAL
IMPACTS

LOSS OF
OUTDOOR
RECREATION
INCOME

SALTWATER
INTRUSION

NINE IMPACTS
OF SEA-LEVEL RISE

LOSS OF
HUNTING AND
FISHING

OPPORTUNITY

LOSS OF
WETLAND
BUFFER
ZONES
LOSS OF
PROPERTY
VALUES

5

BEACH
EROSION

GREATER
DAMAGE
FROM
WEATHER
EVENTS

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Contaminated aquifers can pollute the freshwater
needed for agriculture and drinking water. This change
in salinity will also harm, and result in the loss of,
coastal habitats such as tidal freshwater marsh.16 In
addition, saltwater intrusion can damage infrastructure
such as irrigation, wastewater and drinking water

treatment facilities, and septic tanks.

3) Beach erosion: Beaches provide tourist

attractions and critical barriers between the ocean
and coastal property. Nearly half of Florida’s beaches
are designated as critically eroding, which has forced
the state to replenish the beaches with millions of
cubic yards of sand. According to a 2013 review,
Florida has spent $393 million over the last decade
on sand replacement.17 Erosion also affects many
species, such as shorebirds and turtles, which rely on
healthy beaches for nesting and migration.

4) Loss of wetland buffer zones: Coastal
wetlands provide vital habitat for birds and fish, and
also offer coastal communities flood storage (absorbing
and storing flood water), storm surge buffers, erosion
control, and water quality improvements.18 Land use
changes, hurricanes, and sea-level rise are increasing
the rate of coastal wetland loss in the U.S.19 Increased
inundation from sea-level rise is overwhelming the
ability of tidal marshes to adapt, resulting in damage to
these ecosystems. In the Delaware region, one acre of
tidal wetlands are collectively being lost every day.20
5) Greater damage from more frequent
and severe extreme weather events: As

the climate continues to change, extreme weather
events are expected to occur more often, resulting

in greater damage in areas already experiencing
effects of sea-level rise. Costs associated with these
weather events have increased significantly over the
past decades, exacerbated by sea-level rise and other
factors.21 Already, average losses caused by recent
hurricane winds, land subsidence, and sea-level rise
are estimated to be $14 billion per year.22 In 2005,
Hurricane Katrina alone caused an estimated $134
billion in damages.23 Hurricane Sandy in 2012 caused
an estimated $50 billion in damages.24

6) Loss of property values: Local governments
rely on property tax revenue that comes from seaside
homes and businesses. As sea levels continue to rise,
both property values and business opportunities in
many areas are likely to decline. At least $1.4 trillion
worth of property in the United States is within one
eighth of a mile from the coast,25 and storm surge from
hurricanes can travel miles inland.26 In some parts of
low-lying Florida, every foot of sea-level rise will result
in the shoreline moving inland 500 to 2,000 feet.27
7) Loss of hunting and fishing
opportunities: As the seas warm from rising global

temperatures, some marine species are moving north
toward cooler ocean waters. This shift in distribution
leads to disruption in coastal ecosystems as prey and
predator species become separated.28 This effect will
be compounded by sea-level rise as it alters coastal
ecosystems. Juvenile species that depend on coastal

tidal marshes for their development will lose habitat
from inundation. The multi-billion dollar fishing
industry will be impacted, disturbing the coastal
communities that depend on reliable fishing as a food
source or economic engine. Hunting opportunities—
such as for waterfowl—may also be impacted by
habitat changes to coastal wetlands and disruption of
food sources.29

8) Loss of wildlife, natural places, and
outdoor recreation income: Other species like

shore birds and sea turtles, a tourist draw in many
areas, could face altered ecosystems and habitat loss as
the oceans warm and sea level increases. The economic
value of coastal recreation in the United States is
between $20 billion and $60 billion annually for beachgoing, angling, birdwatching, and snorkeling/diving.30

9) Cultural impacts: In the case of local
communities that depend on coastal ecosystems for
subsistence fishing and farming, sea-level rise could
dramatically change their way of life. For example,
the Seminole Tribe of South Florida depends on a
healthy Everglades ecosystem to preserve their
cultural heritage.31

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

6

State Impacts: The Cost of Rising
Seas in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic,
and Northeast
Southeast
ME

NH
MA

NY

PA

CT

NJ
MD

DE

VA

NC

SC
GA

FL

Eastern seaboard states affected by rising seas

7

RI

Florida
Out of all U.S. states, Florida is most
vulnerable to sea-level rise, in large
part because much of the state is at or
near sea level. The Miami region has the
largest amount of exposed assets and the
fourth-largest population susceptible to sea-level
rise in the world.32 Other areas of coastal Florida, such
as Tampa Bay, also are highly vulnerable to sea-level
rise. With a $60 billion beach tourism industry,33 the
impacts of sea-level rise have the potential to severely
harm Florida’s economy.

Coastal erosion is becoming a growing problem,
with increasing demands to replace sand on eroding
beaches. A recent study by the Army Corps of Engineers
found that Miami-Dade County will need roughly 20
million cubic yards of sand (or the equivalent of over
10,000 football fields covered in 1 foot of sand) over
the next 50 years to maintain its beaches.34 The county
has used up nearly all of its offshore sand sources,
and will need to find acceptable alternative sources
for future projects. According to estimates in MiamiDade County’s FY 2013-2014 Proposed Budget and
Multi-Year Capital Plan, the county will need to spend

more than $32 million on beach erosion and sand
replacement between 2013 and 2017. Miami-Dade’s
estimated beachfront property is valued at more than
$14.7 billion, not including infrastructure;35 overall, $69
billion worth of property is at risk of flooding in less
than 15 years in Florida.36

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Bonefish. Photo: Luyen Chou.

Sea-level rise and other climate stressors have
raised concerns among Florida’s citizens. A June
2015 poll of Florida’s 27th Congressional District,
including Miami, found 81 percent of respondents
believe climate change is a problem and 82 percent
want Congress to support economical ways to
mitigate it.37

Fish and wildlife that depend on coastal habitats also
are at risk. Florida, along with other states on the East
Coast, is part of the Atlantic Flyway. As sea level rises,
bird species could lose the habitats they rely on to rest
and forage for food on their long migration. According
to National Audubon Society, the horned grebe, brownheaded nuthatch, and wood stork are expected to be
seriously impacted by climate change.38

The Everglades and Florida Keys

Some of Florida’s top tourist attractions, including the
Everglades and Florida Keys, are threatened by sealevel rise. In the Everglades, freshwater historically
flowed down from the north to meet the influx of
tidal water in the unique subtropical climate of South
Florida. This expansive wetland was reduced by half
in the 20th century by massive ditching, diking, and
wetland filling projects. Sea-level rise will exacerbate

the cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystems that are
already deprived of historic freshwater inflow from the
Everglades. Today, efforts to restore the Everglades are
among the largest restoration programs in history.

This vast watershed’s ecological communities are
home to many unique plants and animals, of which 67
species are listed as threatened or endangered. As the
coastal biological communities shift inland with the
rising seas, the Everglades are beginning to change.
Sawgrass habitat, which is intolerant of salt water, is
being replaced with mangrove habitat. On average, the
Everglades slope upwards from the southern Florida
coast by two inches per mile, so for every two inches
of sea-level rise we can expect to see a mile of the
Everglades altered.39 Depending on how fast sea-level
rises, even mangroves may not be able to keep pace
with the shifting habitat.40

As parts of the Everglades’ wetlands become flooded
with rising seas, fish nursery habitat and other
sheltered wildlife areas will be lost. Some species will

be able to migrate northward with shifting habitat,
but if seawalls are installed to protect property, these
migration barriers will harm species and habitat,41
including sea turtle nesting beaches. Salt water is also
beginning to seep into the freshwater aquifers that
supply the Everglades, polluting the water source for
seven million Floridians.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

8


Florida is also known as the fishing capitol of the
world, and many prized fish species rely on the habitats
provided by the Florida Keys. Florida is the number
one destination in the U.S. for saltwater anglers (with
2.4 million state visits annually). Saltwater recreational
fishing brought in $7.6 billion and supported 109,341
jobs as of 2014.42 As the climate continues to change,
this Florida tradition will be impacted. The bonefish,
tarpon, and permits that support recreational fishing
in the Florida Keys generate an estimated $427 million
annually,43 but the subtropical and tropical flats upon
which these fish species depend are threatened by
sea-level rise.44 Seagrass beds and mangroves are
essential habitat for juveniles of several grouper species
(including gags), which take a relatively long time
to mature. As sea-level rise damages these delicate
ecosystems, fish stock could fall and anglers may not be

able to share the same fishing experiences with their
children and grandchildren.

Georgia

Since 1935, the sea-level gauge in
Savannah has measured a 9-inch
average increase.45 Approximately
675 square miles along the
Georgia coast are located below
4.9 feet in elevation46—much
of which is within the National
Climate Assessment’s range of projected sea-level rise
by 2100. Chatham County alone, which contains the city
of Savannah, lies mostly below the 3-foot sea-level rise
projected. The county has approximately 6,100 homes
and $2.1-billion worth of property at risk.47

Georgia’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism,
real estate, and the fishing industry. According to a 1997
review by the Georgia Department of Industry, tourism
in coastal counties generated $1.9 billion in revenue.48
Georgia contains nearly one third of the existing tidal
saltmarshes along the East Coast of the U.S.—nearly
400,000 acres.49 Many species that the fishing industry
depends on, including shrimp, blue crab, and oysters,
rely on the coastal salt marshes that are threatened by
sea-level rise.50 Unfortunately, the state’s salt marshes are
projected to decline by up to 45% by 2100.51

9

American oystercatcher. Photo: Hal and Kirsten Snyder.

Tidal freshwater systems are also threatened by
sea-level rise. These delicate wildlife rich ecosystems
depend on freshwater flow into Georgia’s estuaries and
are threatened by the encroachment of salt water from
sea-level rise.52 The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge,
located along the Savannah River, and the mouth of
the Altamaha River, are two areas where changes in
salinity are altering freshwater habitats, exacerbated
by dredging projects.53 Vegetation is dying at an
accelerated pace as salt water intrudes, increasing the
likelihood that underlying sediment will degrade and
dissolve, further speeding the influx of salt water into
freshwater habitat.54

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Sapelo Island and Blackbeard Island
National Wildlife Refuge
Sapelo Island—considered by some to be the birthplace
of coastal ecology—is a low lying barrier island located
approximately 50 miles south of Savannah in the Duplin
River estuary. Sapelo Island and Blackbeard Refuge
form Georgia’s characteristic coastline—low lying
barrier islands with an eastern facing beach, dunes
with some elevated forested land, and salt marshes on

the western side of the island. These systems create a
critical storm buffer for the mainland.55

In 2008, South Carolina’s natural resources contributed
nearly $30 billion in revenue and 230,000 jobs to the
state’s economy. The state’s beaches alone generate
approximately $3.5 billion annually and support 81,000
jobs.62 Outdoor activities, including fishing, hunting
and wildlife viewing, contribute $2.2 billion annually to
South Carolina’s economy and support nearly 59,000
jobs. Many of these valuable sources of revenue are
threatened by sea-level rise and its associated impacts.63

Sapelo is part of the National Estuarine Research
Reserve System, which includes 27 reserves in 22
coastal states. The northern half of Sapelo Island is
comprised of the 5,618-acre Blackbeard National
Wildlife Refuge, which provides wildlife habitat,
including maritime forest, salt marsh, freshwater
marsh, and beach habitat. The island offers nesting
habitat for the loggerhead sea turtle and a variety of
shorebirds, including the American oystercatcher and
piping plover.56 Sea-level rise worsens coastal erosion
and flooding57 in these areas.

Sapelo Island, only accessible by boat and plane, is
also home to the Hog Hammock community, a GullahGeechee settlement retaining West African traditions
and speaking a creole dialect. The community has a
long history with the land, including agriculture and
oyster harvesting.58 According to current sea-level rise

projections, this community will be almost entirely
inundated by the end of the century.59,60

South Carolina

In South Carolina, nearly
700,000 people live in the
Charleston area alone. It is a busy
seaport ranked eighth in the nation for value of
cargo handled and it is a popular tourist destination
known for its beautiful beaches. However, nearly
$150 billion of property is threatened61 by sea-level rise
in this picturesque coastal community.

Blue crab. Photo: Sally Wyatt.

Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve
Santee Delta has more than 20 square miles of
interconnected rivers, streams, and marshes. This web
of waterways makes up the largest delta on the state’s
eastern coast.64 The nearly 24,000 acres of the Santee
Coastal Reserves offer important habitat for migrating
birds and other wildlife. The reserve supports many
outdoor activities, including hiking, birding, fishing,
and hunting. Changing salinity from sea-level rise has
resulted in altered vegetation, which in turn impacts
duck populations and local duck hunting.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

10


Red wolf. Photo: Christine Majul.

Sand dunes, beaches, and small barrier islands, like
those found in Santee Delta, provide critical habitat for
migrating sea birds and the endangered loggerhead sea
turtle. Many of these small islands and coastal habitats
are bordered and protected by tidal marshes.

The tidal marshes in Santee Delta provide vital
habitat to juvenile species that replenish fishery stock,
including shrimp, blue crab, and flounder. In addition
to this, the marshes shelter the smaller prey species
that large game fish depend on. As seas rise and more
extreme weather events occur, these critical ecosystems
will continue to be damaged and marine species will
suffer as a consequence.
Wintering waterfowl depend on habitat in South
Carolina’s tidal wetlands, as does the state’s hunting
industry. Rising sea level and changes in salinity
could damage this critical habitat, and as ecosystems
shift inland to adapt to these changes, they could
encounter development barriers (coastal communities)
in many cases.65

Similar impacts are occurring in other critically
important coastal habitat conservation areas up and
down the coast of South Carolina, including ACE Basin,

North Inlet/Winya Bay System, and Waccamaw River
National Wildlife Refuge.

11

North Carolina
North Carolina is
severely threatened by
sea-level rise and storm surge, with
projected regional s rising approximately
twice the global average due to a host of factors,
including groundwater depletion, sediment
compaction, and regional variations in ocean currents.

There are between 3.1 and 3.9 million acres of wetlands
in coastal North Carolina66 and approximately 2.5
million acres of estuarine waters. North Carolina’s
network of coastal waterways is the largest lagoon
on the East Coast and the second largest tract of
estuarine habitat in the U.S.67 As sea levels rise,
changing water levels and salinity will impact these
coastal ecosystems. These areas are needed to shelter
juvenile species of game fish and provide habitat for
migrating bird species.
The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in just
four of North Carolina’s counties over the next 75
years is $6.9 billion. The lost recreation value of
climate change-induced sea-level rise to local beach
goers is projected to be $93 million a year by 2030
and $223 million a year by 2080 for the southern

North Carolina beaches.68 Sea-level rise will also affect
coastal infrastructure. According to the National

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Climate Assessment, “the North Carolina Department of
Transportation is raising the roadbed of U.S. Highway
64 across the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula by four
feet, which includes 18 inches to allow for higher future
sea level.” This project alone is expected to cost $244
million, yet considering sea-level rise in project design
is likely to reduce risks of more costly damages to the
road over the long term.69

North Carolina is also ranked as one of the top
recreational saltwater sportfishing states in the U.S.,
with $95.6 million in state and local tax revenues
generated in 2013.70 Rising seas will damage the coastal
habitats juvenile game fish need to mature, and the
fishing industry may suffer as a consequence.

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge
and the Outer Banks

North Carolina’s Alligator River National Wildlife
Refuge is home to the only remaining wild population
of North American red wolves, a species once declared
extinct in the wild. Unfortunately, the refuge is
extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise and may be lost

entirely, with the majority of the land lying only a foot
above sea level.71 Not only is sea-level rise threatening
the refuge, but in the event of a hurricane the chances
of parts of it washing away are high. As salt water
continues to creep inland, pine forest will die off to be
replaced with low-lying shrubs, which in turn will be
replaced with saltwater marshes, which may then be
washed away into open water. This loss of habitat poses
a serious threat to the red wolf population and other
wildlife that call the refuge home.
Coastal ecosystems like this may be able to retreat
inland from the rising tides, but human development
such as roads or seawalls may hinder this ability.
Removing these barriers and building natural buffers,
like oyster beds, may help reduce impacts on these
vulnerable ecosystems.

In view of the refuge are North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
The people who live on these islands depend on
revenue from tourism, and as the beaches, estuaries,
and lagoons that these islands protect are inundated

and eroded by rising seas, residents will pay the price.72
In 2014, the Outer Banks contributed $21.3 billion
from visitor spending to North Carolina’s economy. In
addition to this, the island chain contributed 200,000
jobs, $1.5 billion in federal tax revenue, $1 billion
in state tax revenue, and $636 million in local tax
revenue.73 The islands are also important stopover
areas for nesting and migratory birds (including the

eastern painted bunting), and iconic endangered
species like loggerhead sea turtles, which spend
considerable time in shallow coastal estuaries.

Mid-Atlantic Region
Virginia

Many of Virginia’s coastal
communities are
highly vulnerable
to sea-level rise. The Hampton Roads area, for instance,
home to a number of military facilities, is one of the
most at-risk population centers in the United States.
Measurements of sea level at Sewells Point, Norfolk,
show that water levels over the past 80 years have
risen 14.5 inches, significantly higher than the global
average.74 This dramatic difference is in part due to
gradual subsidence of coastal land in Virginia, which
exacerbates localized sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise has also worsened the impacts of coastal
storms. Hurricane Isabel in 2003 caused $925 million
in damages to insured properties75 in Virginia; an
increase in extreme weather events will likely lead
to even greater losses. Virginia Beach is the largest
city in Virginia, with a population of 450,000.76 The
receding shorelines threaten the resorts, hotels, and
restaurants tourists flock to, and there is potential for
significant economic impacts if the area continues to

From a poll conducted by the
University of Virginia, 86 percent of
Virginia Beach residents said that sealevel rise is a very important issue.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

12


Piping plover and chicks. Photo: Kaiti Titherington/USFWS.

experience sea-level rise. From a poll conducted by
the University of Virginia, 86 percent of Virginia
Beach residents said that sea-level rise is a very
important issue.77

Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island
National Wildlife Refuge

The Chesapeake Bay has already experienced rising
seas, warmer water temperatures, and longer periods
of extreme weather.78 Over the last 100 years water
level in the bay has risen by nearly a foot, which is
greater than the global average due to the relatively
high rate of land subsidence in the region. Much of the
Chesapeake Bay region will continue to face higherthan average sea-level rise in the coming decades.

Many of the bay’s coastal habitats are at risk from
the impacts of sea-level rise, as is the region’s natural
resource-based economy. Over 500 million pounds of

seafood come from the Bay every year. In Maryland and
Virginia this drives $3.39 billion in sales, $890 million
in income, and almost 34,000 jobs in the local economy.

13

Oysters, blue crab, and striped bass are among the
Bay’s most important resources.79 A 2008 study of sealevel rise impacts on coastal habitats in the Chesapeake
Bay suggests that under a 27-inch rise in sea level, a
scenario that is in the mid-range of what is projected to
occur before the end of the century, much of Virginia’s
Chesapeake Bay wetland habitat would decline.80,81
At the south end of the Bay, the 9,120-acre Back Bay
Island National Wildlife Refuge provides outdoor
recreation opportunities for the city of Virginia Beach,
one of the biggest resort cities on the East Coast.

The Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Plan
identifies the American black duck, king rail, least
bittern, and seaside sparrow as high priority species
in the refuge. Because of the refuge’s position along
the East Coast, both southern and northern species
overlap to result in high biodiversity, and over 350
species of birds have been observed in the refuge.82 In
addition to this, the refuge has over five miles of beach
that loggerhead sea turtles use as nesting habitat at the
northernmost limit of their range.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

Maryland
Maryland is known for its
3,100 miles of tidally-influenced
shoreline along the Atlantic coast
and Chesapeake Bay. Taking localized factors
such as land subsidence into consideration, the rate
of sea-level rise in the region is expected to be greater
than the global average.83 Under a scenario of three feet
of sea-level rise, which is consistent with mid-range
projections for the middle to the end of the century,
most of Maryland’s tidal wetlands could be lost and
over 200 square miles of the state’s land could be
inundated with seawater.84
Maryland’s coastal bays and the surrounding
communities support a population of 40,000 residents
and attract millions of visitors every year. The
waterfront property value around Maryland’s bays is
valued at $360 million. In addition, wildlife viewing is
valued at $45 million annually at non-market values
and fishing and shellfishing are valued at $3.3 million.85

Assateague Island and Blackwater National
Wildlife Refuge

Along the Chesapeake Bay, the 27,000-acre Blackwater
National Wildlife Refuge protects more than one third
of Maryland’s tidal wetlands. These wetlands provide
a critical buffer for inland communities, including the
town of Cambridge.86 Blackwater has been designated

internationally as an Important Bird Area containing

Bald eagle fishing in the Blackwater River. Photo: Joseph Glitter.

the greatest density of breeding bald eagles north of
Florida. In addition to this, the Delmarva fox squirrel,
which was recently removed from the endangered
species list, has a substantial population in the forested
regions of the refuge.87
According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
Blackwater already has lost nearly 5,000 acres of
wetland to rising seas.

The refuge’s marshland provides critical spawning
habitat for migratory fish and commercial shellfish.88
Situated along the Atlantic Flyway, Blackwater provides
an important resting ground for migrating birds. In
addition to this, marsh species like the saltmarsh
sparrow, seaside sparrow, clapper rail, and black
rail depend on Blackwater. The economic value of
Blackwater, based on ecosystem services, is nearly

Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge. (Dark gray/green represents water.) Credit: USFWS.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

14


$390 million,89 making it an important component of

Maryland’s economy. As sea-level rises, this wildlife
refuge is placed at risk.

In addition to the Chesapeake Bay and Blackwater
Refuge, Maryland also boasts Assateague Island, a
island with over 37 miles of beaches.90 This island
draws in 2 million tourists annually, which many local
towns rely on as a source of revenue.91 The island is
famous for its wild horses and “ghost forests,” stands
of drowned pine trees. The nature of barrier islands

causes them to constantly shift, and in the case of
Assateague, it means the island is moving slowly
towards the coast and southward. Unlike other barrier
islands in Florida and New Jersey, Assateague has little
infrastructure and managers have chosen to work with
the shifting sands instead of attempting to keep the
island in its current place. As one of the first national
park units to account for climate change and sea-level
rise in its management plans, Assateague offers an
example of how the natural processes of shifting barrier
islands can be utilized to improve resilience.92

Seaside sparrow. Photo: Matt Tillett.

15

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

Beach between Prime Hook community and
Slaughter Beach before Hurricane Sandy.

Beach between Prime Hook community
and Slaughter Beach after Hurricane
Sandy on October 31, 2012.

Credit: USFWS.

Delaware
Delaware has 381 miles of shoreline, much of
it around Delaware Bay. As a state with the
lowest mean elevation in the nation,93
Delaware’s shoreline and the associated
beaches and coastal wetlands are particularly
vulnerable to sea-level rise.94 Unfortunately,
Delaware’s famous beaches are eroding at
a rate of nearly 3.3 feet annually.95 A
recent climate change vulnerability
assessment for the state suggests that, under a
potential sea-level rise scenario of 4.9 feet, the state
could lose 11% of its current land area.96 Along the
shore of the Delaware Bay, beaches are eroding at a
staggering rate of nearly 33 feet per year.97 As coastal
beaches and dunes are eroded, Delaware’s wetland
habitat loses critical protection from rising water and
storm surges.

According to a 2010 study by the University of
Delaware, the Delaware Estuary contributes over $10

billion in annual revenue to surrounding states from
economic activity related to recreation, water quality
and supply, hunting and fishing, forests, agriculture, and
parks. Within the state of Delaware, employment from
the estuary, both direct and indirect, supports over
10,500 jobs.98

A 2015 poll showed that 79 percent of Delaware
residents say immediate action should be taken on
climate and 72 percent say immediate action should
be taken on sea-level rise.99

Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge
Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, a part of
Delaware’s extensive wetland habitat, is highly
vulnerable to sea-level rise and more intense coastal
storms. Prime Hook was severely damaged during
Hurricane Sandy in 2012 when the storm widened a
passage in the wildlife refuge’s protective dune system.
Prior to restoration efforts, the 4,000-acre network
of marshland had slowly been transformed into open
water and the protective beach had receded by about
500 feet.100 When Hurricane Sandy hit the refuge the
protective beach was breached in multiple places,
flooding the marshes and communities around the
refuge. Farm land was also flooded with salt water,
damaging valuable agricultural land.101

To improve the resilience of Prime Hook National
Wildlife Refuge, the Disaster Relief Appropriations

Act of 2013, through the Department of the Interior,
awarded $39.8 million102 to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service. This effort aims to restore beaches and dunes,
improving coastal resilience along the Delaware Bay
and providing critical habitat for federally listed species
like the red knot and piping plover.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

16


Even Inland Ecosystems Can Be
Affected by Sea-Level Rise:
The Case of Pennsylvania

While Pennsylvania is not a coastal state, it is still experiencing
the impacts of sea-level rise. The Delaware Estuary flows
into the southeast part of the state, and as sea level rises,
cities and communities along Delaware River tidal areas,
including Philadelphia, will be at risk. The U.S. National Climate
Assessment reports that sea level in Philadelphia has already
risen by 1.2 feet in 100 years. One 2010 study estimates that
156,000 people in Philadelphia (or 10% of the city’s population)
will be impacted by high tides within the next century as waters
rise.103,104 Pennsylvania will also see erosion and changes in
salinity along its waterways. These changes will especially be felt
in the state’s freshwater wetlands.105

John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge

As part of the Delaware River estuary, John Heinz National Wildlife
Refuge offers a quiet natural area in the city of Philadelphia. The 282
acres of the refuge protects the largest remaining fragment of freshwater
tidal marsh in the state. While some tidal marshes may accumulate enough
sediment or else shift inland to outpace rising water levels, John Heinz
National Wildlife Refuge is surrounded by the city of Philadelphia and likely
has limited ability to adapt. Salt water is also creeping closer to the refuge,
jeopardizing plant, animal, and microbial communities that may not be able to
adjust to changes in salinity.106
Located along the Atlantic Flyway, the refuge provides critical resting ground for
over 300 species of migratory birds. Visitor recreation expenditures accounted
for $1.4 million in 2011.107 State endangered species such as the least bittern and
yellow-crowned night heron depend on marsh habitat in the refuge and are likely to
be impacted by sea-level rise.108

Yellow-crowned night heron. Photo: James Diedrick

17

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


New Jersey
New Jersey’s beautiful coastal
areas are responsible for approximately
70 percent of the state’s tourism revenue.109
The Jersey Shore is a tourist attraction for
people from around the country and offers
a huge economic benefit for the state.
In 2014 New Jersey received $36.4 billion of its GDP

from tourism, which also supports 508,000 jobs (10
percent of all jobs in the state). Half of this tourism
spending happens at the Jersey Shore. When Hurricane
Sandy hit the shore, its 127-mile stretch of beaches,
boardwalks, and rental properties were badly damaged,
contributing to the staggering $37 billion in total losses
from the storm.110,111
Some of New Jersey’s best defenses against the impacts
of severe weather come from its barrier islands, dunes,
and beaches. The low-lying sandy areas create shelter
from storm impacts. The islands have a natural ability
to recover from storm surges as sand is pushed from
the side of the island impacted by water and wind to
the opposite side. This causes the islands to gradually
shift, which in turn enables ecosystems to move with
the islands. However, development, such as homes and
roads, hampers this ability.

Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife
Management Area

Delaware Bay is known around the world for its oyster
industry and the wildlife viewing opportunities created
by horseshoe crab and migratory birds. The oyster
harvest alone is projected to generate up to $80 million
of annual economic benefit, while wildlife viewing
contributes $25 million in benefits to the Delaware Bay
area and $34 million regionally.112
In Delaware Bay, the 9,000 acre113 Egg Island Wildlife
Management Area offers an extensive network of

“water trails” through saltmarsh habitat filled with
birds and other wildlife. Outdoor explorers can go
bird watching, crabbing, and fishing in its network of
tidal waterways.

Red knots and horseshoe crabs. Credit: Gregory Breese/USFWS.

As sea-level rise contributes to changes in salinity,
we can expect wildlife populations to decline and/or
shift up river.114 These coastal environments provide
critical nesting habitat for threatened and endangered
bird species, and offer a much needed resting place
for migrating birds. These unique birds, such as
the endangered red knot, are a tourist attraction in
and of themselves, and with damaged habitat, their
populations will continue to decline. These ecosystems
are also important for economically significant species
of fish and crab; as these systems continue to degrade
they will decrease the productivity of the sportfishing,
shellfishing, and commercial fishing industries.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

18


New York
New York State has over
1,850 miles of tidallyinfluenced shoreline. In
addition to supporting human

communities both small and large, New York’s
coastal habitats host a diverse array of fish and wildlife
species. Its wetlands and beaches offer breeding,
nursery, migratory, and overwintering habitat for a
range of bird species.115 In addition, New York is ranked
second nationally in terms of recreational sportfishing,
with $144.5 million generated in state and local tax
revenue from saltwater fishing in 2013.116
Problems of sea-level rise are compounded by more
intense coastal storms, posing a significant threat
to the state’s people and wildlife alike. In New York
State, Hurricane Sandy left 43 people dead, $19 billion
in damages, and resulted in the loss of $11 billion in
economic output following the destruction. Nearly a
quarter of New York City was without power, while
roads, tunnels, rail systems, and other transportation
infrastructure required extensive repairs, some of
which are still ongoing.117

Gateway National Recreation Area and
Jamaica Bay
New York State has an extensive network of wetlands,
including those that occur in Jamaica Bay, Staten Island,
and Long Island Sound. In many cases, these wetlands
have already been damaged from development and
pollution, but they still provide critical ecological and
economic benefits. New York’s wetlands support more
biological diversity than other aquatic or terrestrial
ecosystems in the state. These wetlands also buffer
coastal areas from the impacts of floods and provide

wildlife viewing opportunities.

The Gateway National Recreation Area includes land
in New Jersey and New York—27,000 acres in total.
In New York State, this land includes the Jamaica Bay
National Wildlife Refuge, Staten Island, Fort Tilden, Riis
Park, Floyd Bennett Field, and Canarsie Pier. Spanning
9,155 acres, Jamaica Bay National Wildlife Refuge
is one of the most important bird sanctuaries in the
Northeastern United States and one of the most popular
places to view migrating bird species, including the
endangered piping plover. Over 330 bird species and 60
butterfly species have been observed in the refuge in
addition to many native reptiles and amphibians.118
New York City’s 520-mile coastline is protected in part
by its surrounding wetland system, and as sea level
rises, this barrier will become even more valuable.119
When Hurricane Sandy hit New York, the freshwater
ponds in Jamaica Bay were breached and the refuge
suffered extensive damage. Overall, Gateway suffered
$180 million in damage from Hurricane Sandy. With
extreme weather events occurring more frequently
from climate change, and a higher storm surge expected
from sea-level rise, the vulnerable marshes, recreation
areas, and wildlife viewing locations in Jamaica Bay are
likely to be at increased risk.

Bluefish. Photo: Richard Ling.

19

Any natural migration inland of these coastal wetland
areas will be hampered by the state’s highly developed
urban areas as well as the abundance of seawalls.
Additional climate-driven stressors like more severe
storm surge and higher tides also further impact marsh
health, making coastal habitats less resilient.120

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


Northeast Region
Connecticut
Since 1960, sea level in
Connecticut has risen by
approximately six inches.121
In some areas along the
Connecticut coast the average shoreline erosion rate
is between one and three feet per year. With sea-level
rise and the compounding effect of more frequent
and severe storms, this rate is expected to increase.122
Hurricane Sandy caused more than 360,000 people
to be evacuated from areas along the coast123 and
recovery efforts cost $283 million in federal disaster
assistance.124 Coastal wetlands provide a critical buffer
against these impacts.

In Connecticut, coastal wetlands reduce storm damage
costs by an estimated $13,000 per acre annually.125
These ecosystems are threatened by sea-level rise, but

with proper management and restoration, marshes
may be able to move inland. However, manmade
barriers such as dykes, levies, and other storm barriers
may impede this movement and result in the loss of
marshland. Approximately 30 percent of Connecticut’s
historic marshland has been lost to human
development. Efforts to restore damaged wetlands
began in the 1930’s, and today the Connecticut
Department of Environmental Protection is recognized
as a national leader in tidal wetland restoration. Over
1,700 acres have been restored, offering benefits for
wildlife and communities up and down the coast.126

Long Island Sound and Barn Island
Wildlife Management Area

At 1,320 square miles, the Long Island Sound is the
region’s largest estuary, with a 600-mile coastline.
Warming water temperatures, coastal erosion, and
rising sea levels pose a threat to the sound’s wildlife
and coastal habitat.127

The 1,013-acre Barn Island Wildlife Management Area
is one of the largest and most ecologically diverse
coastal wildlife management areas along the sound.

Juvenile saltmarsh sparrow. Photo: Michael Mulqueen.

Barn Island is popular with birders and with hunters
during the fall season. The preserve has 290 acres of

saltmarsh habitat, 540 acres of woodland, and open
water. It supports nine state-listed species during the
breeding season, including the saltmarsh sharp-tailed
sparrow,128 which is declining due to sea-level rise.129
These small endangered birds nest only in salt marshes,
many of which are expected to be flooded by rising sea
levels.130 Barn Island was listed as a globally significant
Important Bird Area in 2004. In addition to rare
birds, Barn Island also shelters a sea-level fen, a rare
saltmarsh habitat that is supplemented by upwelling
fresh groundwater.131
The wooded areas of the island are expected to suffer
from saltwater inundation, and there has already been
evidence of black gum trees dying off. These forested
areas are expected to be pushed inland as the low-lying
saltmarshes on the island are also forced inland by
rising sea levels.132

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

20


Rhode Island
Rhode Island is known for its 400
miles of beautiful beaches, hiking
trails, and abundant wildlife refuges.
The state has nearly 2,700 homes
less than 1 meter (about 3.3 feet)
above current sea level, placing

these properties well within the
range of sea-level rise projections.133
Meanwhile, local sea gauges show that since 1929
water levels have already risen by nearly a foot,
and impacts are already occurring in coastal towns
like Providence. In addition, erosion rates in some
areas have doubled from 1990 to 2006 and certain
freshwater marshes along the coast have begun to
transition to saltwater marsh.134

Meanwhile, Rhode Island has already lost 53 percent
of its historic salt marshes over the last 200 years due
to human alterations on the landscape. Nonetheless, by
2100, coastal habitats such as salt marshes and barrier
beaches will provide natural protective benefits to $5
billion worth of Rhode Island property.135

Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National
Wildlife Refuge
Ninigret Pond is part of a network of lagoons along
Rhode Island’s southern coast. These lagoons are called
salt ponds by locals, and provide fishing and other
outdoor recreation opportunities. These salt ponds
also support critical habitat for commercial species of
fish and shellfish and offer sheltered resting places for
birds migrating along the Atlantic Flyway. Salt ponds
are protected by barrier beaches, but as sea level rises
and storms become more frequent and severe, these
beaches are being pushed inland.

The 872-acre Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge that
backs up to the Ninigret salt pond is one of five refuges
in Rhode Island. Ninigret Pond is the largest coastal salt
pond in the state, and over 250 bird species have been
recorded at the refuge, including the federally listed
piping plover. The pond and adjacent wildlife refuge
protect commercial species like the blue crab, bay
scallop, and winter flounder.136 In addition to offering
wildlife habitat, the salt marshes around the pond help
filter pollutants and provide a critical buffer for coastal

Bay Scallop. Photo: Seascout.

21

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard


communities and fisheries. Salt marshes provide an
estimated $150 million in revenue from recreational
fishing and $75 million in revenue from commercial
fishing. Outdoor recreation accounts for $2.4 billion
consumer spending and supports 24,000 jobs in
Rhode Island.137

Massachusetts

Massachusetts has
over 1,500 miles of coastline. Sea level
around Boston has risen by 11 inches over

that last 100 years, higher than most of the East
Coast. This shift is due to both climate change and
natural subsidence. Coastal land is being lost at varying
rates in the state to erosion,138 with impacts being felt
along much of the coastline as well as the islands of
Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Massachusetts beaches are some of the most popular
recreation resources in the state, and the coastal
tourism and recreation economy supports 119,420 jobs
with a total annual output of $8.7 billion.139 Activities
associated with this sector include recreational boating,
saltwater angling, wildlife watching, and beach visits.

Plum Island and the Great Marsh

Plum Island, along Massachusetts’ North Shore, is a
barrier island known for its remarkable dune systems
and beaches. At 11 miles long, Plum Island spans
multiple towns. The northern third of the island
consists of beaches, dunes, marsh, and some dense
residential development. The southern two thirds
of the island is devoted to the Parker River National
Wildlife Refuge and contains a variety of coastal
habitats that provide critical nesting habitat for rare
and threatened species and refuge for migrating birds
along the Atlantic Flyway. On Parker River National
Wildlife Refuge alone over 300 species of birds have
been recorded, including 75 rare species.140

Plum Island may be more stable than many of the
barrier islands to the South, but winter storms can
still wreak havoc on this island. A 2013 storm washed
away several ocean-front homes. With anticipated sea-

Least terns. Photo: Lauri Griffin.

level rise and increased erosion, many homes that are
currently out of harm’s way will likely become prone
to flooding in the future. Property taxes on the island
generate $7 million annually in revenue for the towns of
Newbury and Newburyport.141 As houses and property
are impacted by ever increasing storms, the economies
of these island communities will be strained.
Preventative measures to protect the island can be
expensive. However, there are cost-effective natural
solutions, such as planting dune vegetation, restoring
salt marsh, and amending zoning regulations that may
ultimately provide the best chance at reducing the
vulnerability of this barrier island.
Plum Island is encompassed by the much larger Great
Marsh of Massachusetts. It is the largest salt marsh
in New England. It is made up of over 20,000 acres of
salt marsh, tidal waterways, and beaches.142 The Great
Marsh has been designated an Important Bird Area of
international significance and provides habitat for a
multitude of wildlife, including the piping plover and
least tern.143 A 2015 project was awarded $2.9 million
in funding to implement a suite of projects that work
synergistically to increase the resiliency of the marsh

ecosystem and Plum Island barrier beach and in turn
reduce the vulnerability of the human communities.144
Protecting and enhancing the Great Marsh and the
Plum Island barrier beach may be one of the most costeffective tools to reducing community vulnerability.

Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard

22