Vulnerability assessment to climate change for eba in van long wetland nature reserve , ninh binh province

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY
***

STUDENT THESIS
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR
ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION: CASE STUDY IN VAN LONG
WETLAND NATURAL RESERVE, GIA VIEN DISTRICT, NINH
BINH PROVINCE
Major: Natural Resources Management
Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management

Student: Mai Phuong Thao

Student ID: 145309881

Class: K59A Natural Resources Management

Course: 2014 - 2018

Advanced Education Program
Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA
Supervisor: Nguyen Thi Thanh An

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Abstract
During 2 months conducted this study, I received lots of help and encouragement from many
people without whom this study would have never happened .First and foremost, I would like
to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Mrs Nguyen Thi Thanh An for the continuous

support of my student thesis study and research, for her motivation, enthusiasm, and immense
knowledge. Her guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis.
Beside my advisor, I would like to thank the administration of Vietnam Forestry University,
Faculty of Forest Resources and Environmental Management, Department of Environmental
with enthusiasm to impart valuable knowledge for us.
My sincere thanks also goes to many people for their contribution to this research; Mr.Mai Van
Quyen- Manager in Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province; in Gia Vien district who provided me
many useful knowledge about local knowledge about ecosystems, management system and
create some great opportunities for me to meet and work with local people in Van Long NR. I
would especially like to thank local people in communes, they spent more time answering lots
of question related to climate change impacts and preparedness and help me to understand
situation and challenges they are facing.
Finally, I would further like to thank my family, who always support and helped me in my
research.
Hanoi, 29 August 2017
Mai Phuong Thao

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Table of contents

List of figure

thesis
Climate change (CC): the change of climate status from the average state and/or the climate
variability in a long period of time, usually several decades or longer. Climate change may be
due to the internal natural processes or external impacts, or human activities including land
use process which cause changes in the composition of the atmosphere.
CAM: A method of assessing the vulnerability to climate change based upon the factors of

Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity.
EbA: Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA) are defined by the Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD)1 as “the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people
adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, as part of an overall adaptation strategy” (CBD
Secretariat, 2009)
Exposure: degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (of populations, resources, property,
and so on); it may be represented as changes in climate conditions. It is characterized by
intensity, frequency, or the magnitude of climate of variation events or patterns.
Sensitivity: degree to which a system will be affected by, positively or negatively, climate
change. The consequence can be direct (such as changes in plant productivity due to changes
in temperature) or indirect (such as damages caused by increased flood frequency, which is a
result of sea level rise).
Ecosystem: A dynamic complex of plants or animals, and microorganism’s population and
their non-living environment interacting as a functional unit. Humans make an integral part of
the ecosystem.
Socio-ecological systems (SESs) Socio-ecological systems (referred also as humanenvironment systems, or human -nature systems) emphasize that human beings and the nature
are interconnected, interactive in a continuous manner and mutually develop, thus, become
integral systems. There is no single definition of SESs. Systems theory differentiates various
types of systems, which include functional, structural and hierarchical systems with different
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attributes such as being closed, open, static, dynamic, simple or complex. SESs is
characterized by dynamic complexity with multi-forms and multi-variables. The specific
attributes of a system depends on the selected definition (Hummel et al. 2011). In term of
vulnerability assessment, researcher developed approach to identify and analyze SESs for the
purpose of vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem based Adaptation
solutions, not recommending on how to recognize and identify Social-Ecological System
separately.
Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate

variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or
to cope with the consequences
Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to the current or expected
impacts of climate change to mitigate climate change risks.
Climate Change Adaptation (CCA): is the adjustment in the natural systems or in human
activities in order to cope with the current or expected impacts of climate to mitigate climate
change risks in the future and to recognize and take advantages of the benefits from climate
change.
Vulnerability: the extent that a system is vulnerable or unable to cope with the adverse impacts
of climate change, including climate change and extreme weather events (IPCC 2014).

Abbreviation
AC
CC
CCA
CAM
CBD
EbA
ICEM
IMHEN
MONRE
NR
SESs
VA
VND

Adaptive capacity
Climate change
Climate Change Adaptation
Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology

Convention on Biodiversity
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
International Centre for Environmental Management
Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment
Ministry of Natural resources and Environment
Nature reserve
Social-ecological systems
Vulnerability Assessment
Vietnam Dong
Keyword: Ecosystem-based Adaptation, Vulnerability, Social Ecology System

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CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Introduction and problem statement
Climate change, include sea level rise and unpredictable extreme weather events
such as thunderstorms, storms, tropical low pressures will be the most serious challenge to
low and relatively flat areas, especially fresh wetland areas. Wetland conservation to
against climate change and maintaining the ecosystem services from it is crucial. Wetlands
have high biodiversity and play an important role in economic and social development
because it brings several ecosystem services such as: environmental protection and disaster
prevention, the accumulation and limitation of environmental pollution, climate regulation,
maintaining biodiversity and protecting the environment, balance of O2, atmospheric CO2,
local climate regulation (rainfall, temperature, humidity) and reduce the greenhouse effect.
Wetlands also make communities more resilient to the impacts of climate change. They
reduce the impacts from floods, droughts, and cyclones and provide buffers against sea
level rise and storm surges. Wetlands conservation, sustainable use, and restoration can
contribute significantly as efficient and effective nature-based solutions for local
community to mitigate and adapt with climate change impacts. This is idea of Ecosystembased Adaptation: take advantage of ecosystem to mitigate or adapt with adverse effects

from climate change. Ecosystem- based adaptation solutions have been applied in many
regions.
Viet Nam is a natural disaster-prone country, which is particularly vulnerable to the
effects of climate change. Growth population, urbanization, and rapid economic
development impact issues have collided to threaten the country’s sustainable
development. Regarding wetland management, wetlands play a vital role in the lives of the
local people and the socio-economic development of the country. Wetland is very diverse
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with an area of approximately 5,810,000 ha, accounting for about 8% of all wetlands in
Asia, of which freshwater wetland accounts for about 10% of total wetlands Among
Vietnam's wetlands, there are 68 wetland areas (341,833 ha) with biodiversity and
environmental importance in many different forms (Ministry of Technology and
Environment, 2001). However, available data and information about the location and status
of wetlands, as well as legal frameworks and management policies relating to wetlands
have been dispersed and incomplete. The lack of a common framework for vulnerability
assessment and measuring adaptive capacity has led to gaps in mainstreaming of potential
solutions in policy and society to help social-economical system as well as ecosystem deal
with climate change due to shortage of information and approaches to implement or
monitor the contribution of ecosystems to adaptation.
There is need for a common framework, methodology and indicators to be used for
vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment, which should include both socioeconomic
and biophysical variables and measures of economic strengths, human capacities and
environmental capabilities for wetland nature reserve. Also, there are only few researches
and studies about vulnerability of inland wetland areas for effective responses to climate
change. There is also need for vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning in a
participatory manner. And in term of proposing nature-based solutions response to climate
change adverse effects for Van Long NR in sustainable manners, I conducts the study:”
Vulnerability Assessments to climate change for Ecosystem based Adaptation: Case

study in Van Long Wetland Natural Reserve, Gia Vien District, Ninh Binh Province”

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1.2. Study site
Van Long is one of the largest North Vietnam inland wetland, is located in Gia Vien
district, Ninh Binh province. It is about 90 kilometers from Hanoi to the south and 20
kilometers from Ninh Binh city to Van Long nature reserve. Since 1960, more than 30 km
of a dike system was built on the left bank of the river that made 3,500 ha in Van Long
became a wetland, allowing migratory birds feeding and promoting biodiversity. In 1999, it
became a nature reserve, listed as a wetland protected area and special-use forest in
Vietnam. The isolated limestone mountains surround by watercourse "accidentally"
became the salvation of many animals and plants escape from human destruction.
Van Long NR is located on the administrative boundary of 7 communes of Gia
Vien district: Gia Hung, Lien Son, Gia Van, Gia Lap, Gia Tan and Gia Thanh. In the north,
it adjacent to Hoa Binh province; southward is Cot lagoon; east side is Ha Nam province
and the west is Xich Tho commune, Nho Quan district, Ninh Binh province. Van Long has
been put into operation since 1998 and now it is an attractive tourist destination of Vietnam
with largest white-tailed langur population in Vietnam. Van Long has the craggy and steep
terrain with more than three-quarters of the nature reserve area is limestone ridge. This
ridge has many peaks: Sum (233 m), Mao Ga (308 m), Ba Chon (428 m), Co Tien ( 116
m ), Meo Cao (206 m), Dong Quyen (328 m), May ( 138 m ), Luong (128 m) and Mieu
( 72 m ), stretch from Northwest-Southeast.
There are some vegetation types: natural-regenerated secondary forest on
limestone; formation class shrub and herbaceous vegetation in the dry valley; vegetation at
slope and top of limestone; hygrophilous and aquatic plants. Most of the land area is
covered by vegetation. In addition, cultivation areas, villages in the region are also the
provide food and shelters for many groups of plants and animal. Wetlands area strongly

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affected by the hydrological regime of river systems: Day River, Dap River, Lang River,
Boi River, and Hoang Long River. The hydrological regime is also dependent on seasonal
rainfall in the year. During the growing season, aquatic plants often absorb all nutrients in
the photic zone, limit the biomass development of phytoplankton and lead to the food
shortage in the aphotic zone. In contrast, during the dry season, vegetation degradation
often causes the anaerobic benthic zone, hinder the life of oxygenated and edible species.
Thus, dominant animals in the lagoon are herbivorous, plant-based scraps consumers, mud
swallowers, and low oxygen-tolerant species, such as crabs, snails, catfishes.

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CHAPTER 2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
2.1. Research goal
To analyze vulnerability of social ecological systems to climate change to climate
change to propose Ecosystem-based solutions for sustainable management in Van Long
Nature Wetland Reserve, Gia Vien dítrict, Ninh Binh province.

2.2. Research objectives
– To define social-ecological systems (SESs) profile in Van Long Nature Reserve.
– To assess potential impacts and vulnerability of social-ecological systems in Van
Long Nature Reserve to climate change
– To propose Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) intervention(s) for Van Long Nature
Reserve

2.3. Research questions
- What is current state of SESs in Van Long NR?

- What is the vulnerable social ecological system in Van Long NR?
- Which recommendations should be considered to benefits both human and
ecosystems for both sustainable development and climate change adaptation?

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CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Research framework
There are three main steps in this thesis, include data collection, data analysis to
find the result is vulnerability and give recommendations to reduce it. Vulnerability
assessment is the central idea of this thesis. Vulnerability assessment provides the most
important output is the vulnerability level of defined systems. Social ecological system is
the object this vulnerability assessment working on.
The first step is data collection. Two types of data are primary data and secondary
data is collected. Sources and expected outcomes are detailed in section 3.2.

Figure 1. Research framework
The second step is data analysis. This thesis follows CAM process, which includes
5 tasks. Identifying and analyzing SESs is just the first and second tasks, defining systems

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for vulnerability assessment. Three crucial variables in vulnerability assessment are
exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Due to differences on system components and
human management capabilities, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are selected and grouped
based on SESs. Exposure uses both primary data for climate stress degree and secondary
data for future trend of climate. Combination of exposure and sensitivity from primary data
is Potential Impacts.

The third step is the result and recommendations. Vulnerability is combination of
the Potential Impact with adaptive capacity from primary data. The aim of any climate
change adaptation solutions, include Ecosystem-based Adaptations, is to reduce the
vulnerability of any systems to the risks of climate change.

3.2. Data collection
From research framework, there are 2 types of data: secondary data and primary
data. Information about data collection and sources is summarized in Table 3.3

3.2.1. Secondary data
There are two secondary data sources, include governmental offices, researches and
studies and Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment. Secondary data is
essential for defining the systems which this thesis is working on. Secondary data is also
used in calculating future trends of climatic variability for identifying exposure level. This
climatic variability includes the change in the number of extremely hot days, average
maximum temperature and precipitation. Using climate model, change in these parameters
are figured out.
The first secondary data is governmental offices and researches and studies. This is
statistical data about trend, challenges, and compositions of social, economic and
ecological features. It also provides knowledge about the baseline of systems and
prediction the shifts to systems which will occur irrespective of climate change.
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Governmental offices are district statistic office and Van Long NR office. Researches and
studies have been used are: “Biodiversity in Van Long NR”, “Relationship between local
people livelihoods and conservation activities in Van Long NR”, “Flora biodiversity in Van
Long NR”, “Status and Recommendations for sustainable ecotourism development in Van
Long, nature wetland reserve”, “Evaluating and assessing community participation in wild
animal conservation, Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province”. To map social-ecological

systems, base maps, boundary maps, ecosystem maps from Van Long NR were collected.
The second secondary data called “Climate model” from the Institute for
Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment. The future trend of climate parameters
(include temperature, precipitation, and the number of extremely hot days) is calculated
from data called “Climate model’’ in form of GRID raster. This Climate model is made by
Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment (IMHEN) for both dry season
(from December to May) and wet season (from July to November.

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Table 3.1. Detail about data collection and sources
Tasks
Outcome
Steps

Defining systems
SESs characteristics
Characterizing SESs
Mapping SESs

Source
Statistic data from
Governmental offices
Researches and studies

Secondary data
Governmental
offices

Required
information

Population
Labor
Social composition
Main livelihood and
livelihood shifts
Environment quality
Forest/ water quality
status

Base map
Ecosystems
distribution map
Boundary map

Output

Past and existing
situation, trends and
drivers of the SESs

SESs distribution

Vulnerability assessment for systems
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Calculating

Identifying:
Identifying:
Identifying:
change in
Climate stress Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
climatic
level
parameters
Primary data
IMHEN,
25 local
25 local people
25 local people
MONRE
people
Van Long NR
Van Long NR
Management
Management Office
Office manager
manager Leaders of
Leaders of 2
2 villages: Da Han
villages: Da Han and Vuon Thi
and Vuon Thi
Model and data Duration,
Past and
Supports from
related to

intensity,
potential
government
temperature,
magnitude,
damages
Mechanism in
precipitation and frequency of Criteria for 5
implementing new
storms (see
extreme
solutions
levels of
Appendix 7)
events
local authorities
sensitivity
knowledge
Preparations and
responses to
damages
Accessibility( inform
ation and resource)
Future trend of Climate stress Criteria for
Adaptive capacity of
climate
degree
Sensitivity level
SESs
Sensitivity level

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3.2.2. Primary data
The primary data is collected from local people and local authority. The sampling
technique chosen was snowball sampling. Primary data collection method was used as the
qualitative method, involves open-ended questions with informal conversation. The
interviews were carried out in person (face to face) with a total of 28 people (25 local
people and managers). The study selected local people who live in study site for more than
30 years. Due to the fact that most of people involve in ecotourism are women, the
majority of interviewees were women. The interviews were focused on three major themes
with 2 types of interviewees:
Table 3.2. General information about interviewees
Types of interviewees

Themes

Local people
25 interviewees
(14 women & 11 men)

Local authorities
3 managers (Van Long NR
manager, Da han and Vuon
Thi village header)

Exposure
Sensitivity

Climate stress level

Sensitivity

Adaptive
capacity

Knowledge of local people
Accessibility (information and
resource)
Preparations and responses to
damages
Duration, intensity, magnitude,
Accessibility (information and
frequency of extreme events
resource)
Past and potential damages
Supports from government,
Preparations and responses to
Mechanism in implementing
damages
new solutions
Lived in study site for more around 30 Direct
participated
in
years
management study site
Farmers, ecotourism worker (sailors), Van Long NR Management
participated households (farmer) in Office manager
forest allocation program
Leaders of 2 villages
Observation

Open-ended questions (see Appendix 2 )

Required information

Criteria
Job/Responsibility
Method
Method sampling

Criteria for 5 levels of
sensitivity
Knowledge of local
authorities
Enable environment
(Organization capacity)

Snowball sampling

Sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and climate stress degree in exposure level is
collected from local people and local authority. Some secondary data is available but many
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required information was not available in any governmental offices. In addition, data from
reports and projects of some organizations was not easily accessible by the public.
Exposure level requires knowledge about climate stress degree, include magnitude,
duration, intensity, and frequency of the extreme events, but it is not available. Sensitivity
and adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems are also a critical part for vulnerability
assessment but they are not available, too. So in order to capture sensitivity, adaptive
capacity, and climate stress degree in exposure level, researcher interview local people and

local authorities.

3.3. Data analysis methods
This thesis follows CAM process. The CAM process - Climate change adaptation
and mitigation methodology- includes five primary tasks for adaptation planning.
Vulnerability assessment is third tasks. Ecosystem-based Adaptation is only an option in
the fourth task of the CAM process, defining a range of options. In this thesis, researcher
combines the first and second task as system profiles. Vulnerability assessment is third
task, conducted for these systems. And thesis stops at seventh mission, in the fourth task –
select Ecosystem-based adaptation options.

3.3.1. CAM process
The first task of CAM process is determining the systems which will be influenced,
the geographic and sector need to be assessed. In this thesis, ecological, social and
economic factors need to be considered together, as parts of an integrated whole. That is
the reason why “socio-ecological system” (SESs) - social-ecological systems have been
used as a unit for analyzing.
The second task includes 2 goals, include: ‘describing the past and existing
situation, trends, and drivers of the selected systems’ is analyzing of past extreme events
and trends of selected systems, requires a baseline assessment conducting and shifts
predicting to systems which will occur irrespective of climate change. And ‘projecting

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climate change threats’ is finding out the climate change threats, requires climate modeling
and downscaling of future climate and hydrology against various scenarios.
The third task is vulnerability assessment. Impact and vulnerability assessment
include analysis of the projected climatic threats to the target systems. The impact
assessment combines the level of exposure to key system components and assets and their

relative sensitivity to the threats. The vulnerability is a measure which considers the impact
and the capacity of the component or asset to adapt to it.
The fourth task is developing a range of options for integrated adaptation
interventions. With limited resources, it is not possible or necessary to do everything at
once so we need to identify priorities. In this thesis, this response is Ecosystem-based
Adaptation, which brings co-benefit to both human and ecosystem.

Source: CAM process, ICEM
Figure 2. ICEM CAM methodology
In the first and second task, it is essential to clearly define Social-Ecological
Systems, which are objects for vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystembased Adaptation solutions. Social-ecological systems are made up of 3 factors: key
ecological, social and economic descriptors. The results from this process are Socialecological system profile and Social-Ecological Systems map, which establish an
understanding of past and present status and trends in these systems.
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Vulnerability assessment is third task, which able to prioritize the vulnerable socialecological system or components of these systems. Vulnerability assessment aims to
analyze all variables of vulnerability, include exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
The vulnerability assessment in the thesis based on the framework:

Exposure* Sensitivity = Potential impact (3.1)
Potential impact / Adaptive capacity = Vulnerability (3.2)
In (3.1) function, level Impact is the combination of Exposure level with
Sensitivity, finalized Impact assessment matrix. In function (3.2), impacts level from (3.1)
together with Adaptive capacity, bases on Vulnerability assessment matrix, to find out
Vulnerability level.
The final task is recommending potential Ecosystem-based Adaptation to enhance
the strengths and reduce weaknesses. From identified the strengths and weaknesses exist in
these social-ecological systems, Ecosystem-based Adaptation what people should do to
manage it.

Figure 3. Ecosystem-based Adaptation conceptual framework

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3.3.2. Object, variables and tools in Vulnerability assessment
Generally, there are six components participate in vulnerability assessment include
object, three variables and two tools. Object is social-ecological system, three variables are
exposure and sensitivity, adaptive capacity, two tools are impact matrix and vulnerability
matrix. Vulnerability of SESs is the final outcome from vulnerability assessment. This is
description about these components.
3.3.2.1. Object
Object of vulnerability assessment is SESs. Impacts from, resilience and preparedness
for climate change do not only focus on natural components but also communities who rely
on ecosystem services from them. To understand the issues and threats caused by climate
change to all aspects, this thesis selects “socio-ecological systems” (SESs). In term of
vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions,
researcher captures important variables into 3 categories that made up social-ecological
systems: key ecological, social and economic descriptors. SESs will be used to classify
sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
Secondary data from governmental offices and researches and studies are collected data
related to 3 groups: the Ecological profile, Social profile and Economical profile (Socialeconomical profile). Categories should be the concern, include past and existing situation,
trends and challenges. This data, in fact, is baseline assessment conducting for socialecological systems and predicting the shifts to systems which will occur irrespective of
climate change.
Mapping all of the SESs across the entire Van Long NR is a critical part of this process.
SESs map can be used as a tool in conservation to prioritize the most appropriate and cobenefits solutions. The ability to map landscape values makes it possible to display socialecological hotspots -regions that contain significant social with ecological value. SES
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hotspot maps provide a visual tool for land planners and managers that enable the
visualization of human/landscape relationships. The identification of SESs hotspots can
help identify areas of high concern (e.g., conflicting landscape values), areas of intense
sociocultural/biophysical processes (e.g., a highly valued area for recreation which is
physically fragile), or prospective conservation areas with high ecological value but low
social value. All modeling tool outputs and socio-economic analysis can be linked directly
to GIS analysis making it the interpretive core of the integrated assessment and
visualization methodologies.
SES map is visual tool to illustrate ecosystems distribution with local main livelihood
(how can they benefit from ecosystem.) To map SESs in the study site, the researcher
follows the map processing procedure (standardizing the data, converting into the same
reference frame, with shapefile (shp.) format). The satellite image is used to illustrate the
status of ecosystems, of which social-ecological systems locate.
3.3.2.2. Variables
There are 3 variables in vulnerability assessment, include adaptive capacity, sensitivity,
and exposure. It is impossible to combine all variables the at once, so exposure and
sensitivity are combine together to find Potential Impact level before combine with
Adaptive Capacity. Potential Impact level is synthesized by Sensitivity and Exposure using
Impact matrix. The vulnerability is synthesized Potential Impact level with Adaptive
capacity using Vulnerability matrix. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity will be grouped by
the Social-Ecological system, lead to differences in Potential Impact level and
Vulnerability level of these Social-Ecological Systems.
3.3.2.2.1. Exposure
Exposure is influenced by long-term changes in climate conditions, including the
magnitude and frequency of extreme events with changes in climate variability. There are
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also 2 elements to consider in exposure. The first is the degree of climate stress on the
system, and second is the future trend of climate. The future trend of climate requires

specific knowledge, but climate stress degree is based on local knowledge.
To find the exposure level, future trend of climatic variability need to be predicted.
Climate, from definition, is the statistics of weather. Calculating statistical figures from
climate change scenario raster is required to forecast future trend of climatic variability.
Future trend of climate parameters (include temperature, precipitation and number of
extreme hot days) is calculated from data called “Climate model’’ in form of GRID raster.
It includes 2 types of GRID raster. First one recorded from 1985 to 2005 is baseline,
collected from all Vietnam weather stations and calculate by interpolation. Other raster
type is forecasted change using IPCC model to make forecasted change in 2030, 2050 and
2100 to illustrate how these change happen (Figure 5,6,7,8 , Appendix 6 ). Zonal Statistic
as Table is a tool which was used to calculate statistical parameters about precipitation,
number of extreme hot days and temperature. After that, this table is exported into .dBase
type. Importing and converting dBase to Excel database (.xlsx or .xls type). This thesis
only select mean precipitation, number of extreme hot days and mean temperature in both
forecasted and baseline raster for only Van Long NR. Final result is collected into template
table.
Climatic
parameters
Precipitation
(mm)

Average
Maximum
Temperature
(°C)
Number of
extreme hot

Season

Baseline

In
2030

Change
in 2030

In
2050

Change in
2050

In
2100

Change
in 2100

Mar – May
Jun – Aug
Sep – Nov
Dec – Feb
Mar – May
Jun – Aug
Sep – Nov
Dec – Feb
Mar – May
Jun – Aug

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days - over
>35 °C (days)

Sep – Nov
Dec – Feb

The primary data about knowledge of local people about climate stress degree on
SESs, includes: duration, frequency, scope and causes and magnitude of extreme events is
noted. Result is collected into template table:
Extreme events

Scope

Duration

Frequency

Causes and Magnitude

3.3.2.2. Sensitivity
Sensitivity is the degree to which a threat will negatively affect the integrity or
operation of the asset. It is simply how components of the system will be affected by, or
responsive to given exposure. In this thesis, term sensitivity is used in the social-ecological
system approach with impacts on different assets of different social-ecological systems so
sensitivity is also different.
The primary data about sensitivity from interview process is noted The result from

interviewing about negatively affects and the asset integrity or operation is grouped by
Social-ecological systems. Due to the fact that differences in system components,
sensitivity in different SESs varied. That is reason why responsive degree and damages of
each system is different among SESs is not the same, even they face the same level of
exposure.
3.3.2.2.3. Adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity in this thesis is adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems - in
which the natural ecosystems have been radically transformed. “Natural capital” is of
central importance. Natural capital is the goods and services provided by the natural
environment, which is made up by living systems. And in terms of identifying Ecosystembased Adaptation actions, peoples’ capacity to manage this natural capital and direct the
change, and the capacity and political will of governmental entities to deploy those
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resources. In this thesis, the adaptive capacity of inhabitants and Van Long NR
management board at the nature reserve level is considered. Adaptive capacity of human in
each social-ecological system is different even with the same exposure due to differences
in knowledge, innovations, motivation, rights and management ability and experiences.
The primary data about adaptive capacity from interview process is noted and grouped
by SESs, too. Human in each ecological system react differently even with the climate
change or any disturbances. They also have different knowledge about and experiences
about climate change impacts. To capture the most relevant human reactions in different
social-ecological systems, only the most relevant and important features are selected.
Detail about 4 factors of adaptive capacity is analyzed in Appendix 10
3.3.2.3. Tools
In CAM methodology, vulnerability assessment uses matrices include impact matrix
and vulnerability matrix. Impact matrix is a guide to the final projected impact of a threat
on an asset given the assessed levels of exposure and sensitivity. And vulnerability matrix
provides the key for combining the impact with the adaptive capacity to define
vulnerability.

3.3.2.3.1. Impact matrix
Impact is combination of exposure level of SESs with their sensitivity. Impact matrix is
a guide to finalize potential impact of a threat on an asset given the assessed levels of
exposure and sensitivity. In this matrix, Impact level ranges from Very low to Very High
level, set up from science-based information and supplemented through expert judgment in
deciding on the level of exposure and level of sensitivity.
The first column is Sensitivity level. In this thesis, experts who set up criteria for
sensitivity are Van Long NR manager and village leaders. Sensitivity level is divided 5
levels from Very Low to Very High, based on local authorities interview (leaders of
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hamlets and Van Long NR manager) (vertical, first row, Table 3.1). In general, they
suppose that some extreme events may beneficial and it is ranked at Very low level. For
example, sometimes storms create suitable conditions for forest development and seed
dispersal. Another example is dry area like Da Han hamlet, some irregular rainfall may
bring water source for crops. In contrast, Very high level is given when deaths occur, for
example, extreme cold spells or flood killed cattle and totally swept away crops. Other
level depend magnitude of impacts.
The first row is exposure level. In this thesis, based on geographical scale of study site,
Exposure level is divided into 5 levels, from Very Low to Very High (horizontal, first
column, Table 3.1). Exposure level includes climate stress degree and changes in future
climatic parameters. Climate stress degree has 4 factors: duration, frequency, magnitude,
intensity of extreme events. Change in future climatic parameters includes change in
precipitation, change in temperature and change in duration of extreme events.
Level of Potential Impact is identified by intersected cell of Sensitivity and Exposure,
represented by row and column. For example, a system which has High exposure level (or
suffer more) and High sensitivity level (easier to be damaged) gets High impacts level.
Simply, a system has Medium impact level when it faces Low exposure but has High
sensitivity level.

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Table 3.3. Impact matrix
Source: Refer from CAM process, ICEM,2011
3.3.2.3.2. Vulnerability matrix
From the definition, a vulnerable system is “system that is sensitive to changes and
extremes in climate and hydrology and one for which the ability to adapt is constrained”.
The vulnerability is the combination of Potential Impacts level with adaptive capacity. In
CAM methodology, vulnerability matrix provides the key for combining the potential
impact with the adaptive capacity to define vulnerability. Vulnerability also ranges from
Very low to Very High level.
In this matrix, the potential impact level is the first row in the vulnerability matrix
(horizontal, first row, Table 3.2). Impacts from climate change, like other disturbances, can
disrupt or damage social-ecological systems functions and property and take days, weeks,
months, years for these system absorbs disturbances, re-organize themselves to recover. At
the highest level, disturbances kill living things, causes deaths, loss critical component of
that social-ecological system, include human, shift regime of systems or change these

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social-ecological systems to a new system. Potential Impacts are divided into 5 levels,
from Very High to Very Low. In case that impact lasts in only a few days, leaves
inconvenience for social-ecological systems in the study site, it is classified at Very Low
level. Level of disruption to social-ecological systems defines whether it is Low or
Medium level. High impact level occurs when consequences last long (years) and damage
components and functions of social-ecological systems. The highest level occurs when
systems, in this thesis, is social-ecological systems, shift to another.

The adaptive capacity level is the first column in the vulnerability matrix. In this thesis,
adaptive capacity is human capability. There are also 5 levels of adaptive capacity. The
level of adaptive capacity is evaluated by 4 factors: The ability to access and control
livelihood activities and resources, Knowledge, Innovation, Enabling environment.
Vulnerability level also ranges from Very High to Very Low level. Very Low level or Very
limited institutional capacity, no technical and financial support means no solution
available, people and management institutions do not have any experiences, knowledge
and preparations for unexpected situations, like extreme events. Low level is limited
institutional capacity and limited access to the technical and financial resource, people find
it hard or cannot access to local resources, information access is limited to prepare and
recover from damages, but they have some experiences and traditional solutions to deal
with this problems. At higher level, Medium level, people know about climate change,
forecast information, they are able to use local resources to prepare for the unexpected
situation caused by climate change but supports from the government is limited. In High
level of adaptive capacity, people actively prepare for climate change in long-term and
easy access to local resources to prepare and recover from damages; they also receive
support to reduce the risks. Adaptive capacity is Very High when people using high

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