building resilience adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in central viet nam

Building Resilience
Ha Noi, 2010
Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods
most at risk to climate change impacts in
Central Viet Nam
MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT
Building Resilience:
Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods
most at risk to climate change impacts in
Central Viet Nam
Ha Noi, 2010
MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT
Copyright 2010 by Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) and United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP)
Published in Vietnamese and English with the approval of MONRE and UNDP.
Publishing license number:
Responsible for contents:
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Truong Manh Tien
Editing:
Dr. Julie-Ann Ellis
Dr. Nguyen Trung Thang
MSc. Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc
Printed in Ha Noi, Viet Nam
iii
CBCNRM Community-Based Coastal Natural Resources Management
CCFSC Central Commiee for Flood and Storm Control
CIDA Canadian International Development Agency
DARD Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
DONRE Department of Natural Resources and Environment

FGD Focus Group Discussion
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HVCA Hazard Vulnerability Capacity Assessment
ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management
IMHEN Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
IMOLA Integrated Management of Lagoon Activities
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade
MOLISA Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Aairs
MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment
NCAP Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme
NTP National Target Programme
PEP Poverty and Environment Project
SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment
SEDP Socio-Economic Development Plans
SLF Sustainable Livelihood Framework
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNIFEM United Nations Development Fund for Women
VNRC Vietnamese Red Cross
Acronyms
iv
ACRONYMS iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
A.1 Approaching coastal livelihoods in a changing climate 1
A. 2 Addressing issues of scale. 1

A. 3 Supporting equitable adaptation 2
A. 4 Migration and relocation as livelihood diversication 3
A. 5 Hard and so infrastructure 3
A. 6 Sectoral climate-resilient approaches 4
B. INTRODUCTION 5
B.1 Objectives and research questions 5
B.2 Methodology 5
B.3 Conceptual approaches employed 6
B.4 Climate change eects 8
B.5 Vulnerability to climate change 9
B.6 Policy and institutional context 10
B.7 Additional stresses posed by climate change 10
C. RUL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS 13
C.1 Introduction to study sites 13
C. 2 Overview of livelihood activities in study areas 14
C. 2.1 Location and livelihoods 14
C. 2.2 People’s perception of poverty 17
C.3 Water and livelihoods 19
C.4 Analysis of dominant livelihoods and livelihood changes 20
C. 4.1 Dominant livelihoods 20
C. 4.2 Declining asset quality: agriculture 22
C. 4.3 Declining asset quality: shing and aquaculture 22
C. 4.4 Responding to declining livelihood assets: migration 24
C.5 e role of institutions in livelihood change 25
C. 5.1 Eects of external interventions 25
C. 5.2 Social capital and livelihoods 27
C.6 Resource degradation as a driver of livelihood change 27
C. 6.1 Livelihood and resource changes 27
C. 6.2 Overall decline in quantity and quality of aquatic products 28
C. 6.3 Pollution, climatic hazards, and the declining productivity of the aquaculture sector 30

D. LOCAL PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE HAZARDS AND RISKS TO LIVELIHOODS AND CURRENT
LOCAL RESPONSES 33
D.1 Local perception of climatic hazards and trends 33
Table of Contents
v
D.2 Local perceptions of hazard impacts on livelihoods 33
D. 3 Current climate change coping and adaptation strategies 34
D. 3.1 Local adaptation 34
D. 3.2 Improvements to infrastructure 35
D.4 Current impacts of climate change on habitat 36
D. 5 Likely future impacts 37
D. 5.1 Increasing climatic uctuations 38
D. 5.2 Impacts of projected sea level rise 40
D. 5.3 SLR 2100 inundation impacts on predominantly agricultural livelihood zones: Quang An and Hong Loc 43
D. 5.4 SLR 2100 inundation impacts on predominantly shing and aquaculture livelihood zones:
Vinh Hien and Ky Ninh 43
D. 5.5 Sea level rise: potential livelihood ‘winners’ and ‘losers’? 48
D. 6 Current emergency responses to hazards 50
D. 6.1 Hazard vulnerability – who is most at risk? 50
D. 6.2 ‘Disaster response’: preparation for and responses to hazards 52
D. 6.3 Preparing for the future? 55
E. RECOMMENDATIONS: ACHIEVING A CLIMATE-RESILIENT FUTURE 57
E. 1 Livelihood pathways 57
E. 1.1 Adaptive strategies for three pathways 57
E. 1.2 Tailoring adaptive strategies 57
E. 1.3 Redenition of the mandate of rural extension services 58
E. 1.4 Balancing regional and local objectives 58
E. 1.5 Adopting a regional approach to community-based coastal natural resource management (CBCNRM) 59
E. 1.6 Infrastructure versus living structures 59
E. 1.7 ‘Managed retreat’ 59

E. 1.8 New infrastructure as new livelihood opportunity 60
E. 1.9 Social ecologies require spatial planning 61
E. 1.10 Climate change and health 61
E. 1.11 Human capital and migration 61
E. 2 Adaptive strategies for climate-resilient livelihoods 62
E. 2.1 Building climate-resilient agriculture 62
E. 2.2 Building climate-resilient shing and aquaculture 62
E. 2.3 General support for building climate-resilient livelihoods 63
E. 2.4 Wider measures to minimise impacts of climate change on the livelihood resource-base 63
E. 2.5 Improving water storage and management 63
E. 2.6 Mainstreaming emergency response planning into provincial and district planning processes
and assist awareness-raising 64
E. 2.7 Planning and managing early responses to sea-level rise 64
E. 2.8 Improving reselement processes for vulnerable households and communities 64
E. 2.9 Building adaptive strategies for temporary migrants 65
E. 2.10 Building adaptive strategies for permanent migrants 65
vi
BIBLIOGPHY 67
ANNEX 1. METHODOLOGY 75
ANNEX 2: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AS USED IN THE STUDY 79
ANNEX 3: METHODOLOGY USED IN PREPATION OF GIS MAP 95
ANNEX 4: ANALYTICAL FMEWORKS 97
ANNEX 5: NATIONAL POLICY SEING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 101
ANNEX 6: LIVELIHOOD TABLES 107
ANNEX 7: VILLAGE MAPS 113
ANNEX 8: CLIMATE HAZARD TRENDS OBSERVED BY VILLAGERS 119
ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES 121
ANNEX 10: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS: IMAGINING A DIFFERENT URBAN FUTURE 155
FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1: Sustainable Livelihoods Framework 7

Figure 2: Four study sites - Hong Loc Commune in Loc Ha District and Ky Ninh commune in Ky Anh District
(Ha Tinh Province); Quang An Commune in Quang Dien District, and Vinh Hien Commune in Phu Loc
District (ua ien Hue Province) 13
Figure 3: Land use map of Hong Loc Commune, Ha Tinh Province (classied from SPOT, 2007)
showing location of villages included in study 15
Figure 4: Spot 2007 land use map for Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province showing location of villages included in study 16
Figure 5: Land use map of Quang An Commune, ua ien Hue Province 16
Figure 6: Land use map for Vinh Hien Commune, ua ien Hue Province (derived from SPOT image, 2007),
showing location of villages included in study 17
Figure 7: Analysis of capital assets at village level in study village, ua ien Hue 21
Figure 8: Poor and virtually landless – the situation of the elderly 22
Figure 9: Map of Vinh Hien Commune, showing nò sáo distribution and navigation routes IMOLA, 2009 27
Figure 10: Near-shore shing socio-ecological cycle 29
Figure 11: Problem tree produced by group of river and lagoon shermen, Hien Hoa II village,
Vinh Hien Commune,  Hue 30
Figure 12: Flow chart outlining of shrimp production (aquaculture) problem in ang Loi Village,
Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province 31
Figure 13: Poor female-headed household, still aected by the trauma of a cyclone 34
Figure 14: A successful aquaculture strategy 35
Figure 15: Freshening and salinising in the Tam Giang lagoon 36
Figure 16: How are climate hazards degrading the resource base? 37
Figure 17: Cross-uctuating climatic hazards 38
Figure 18: Tam Giang Lagoon, showing 2007 ood inundation area 41
Figure 19: Tam Giang Lagoon, SLR2100 (IMHEN 2009) 41
Figure 20: Tam Giang – Cau Hai Lagoon 42
Figure 21: Inundation area of SLR200 (IMHEN NCAP scenario) 42
Figure 22: Quang An Commune land use map 2007 (le) and inundation area of under SLR2100 (right) 44
Figure 23: Elevation map of Hong Loc showing SLR2100 (le) and MONRE 2005 land use map
showing inundation area (right) 45
vii

Figure 24: Vinh Hien Commune land use before sea level rise 46
Figure 25: Vinh Hien Commune land use aer rise of 1 metre (MONRE 2005) 46
Figure 26: Land use 2007 map with inundation area SLR2100 46
Figure 27: Vinh Hien Commune inundation area 2007 land use map 47
Figure 28: Ky Ninh land use (MONRE 2005) showing area inundated under SLR2100 47
Figure 29: Ky Ninh 2007 land use map showing area inundated under SLR2100 48
Figure 30: Additional water surface area created by 1 metre sea-level rise 49
Figure 31: Percentage of paddy lost 4 Communes (out of total paddy allocation MONRE 2005) 49
Figure 32: House on stilts, Hien Hoa II Village 51
Figure 33: Concrete house, roof lost due to typhoon, Hien Hoa II Village 51
Figure 34: Vulnerability of aquaculture to hazards 52
Figure 35: Poverty trap and recent hazard experiences of a young farming family 55
Table 1: Changes in annual mean temperature (
0
C) relative to period from 1980-1999) North Central Region 8
Table 2: Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to the period of 1980 – 1999, North Central Region 9
Table 3: Sea level rise (cm) relative to period of 1980 - 1999 9
Table 4: Poor, medium and well-o households, and movement between groups, as classied by villagers 18
Table 5: Water resources used for consumption and production in study areas 20
Table 6: Principal hazards and associated impacts on livelihoods, as identied by villagers 33
Table 7: Potential impact of climate change on water resources, ecosystem and coastal communities’ livelihoods 39
Table 8: Coping and rehabilitation measures in response to extreme hazards, My Xa Village, Quang An Commune,
ua Hien Hue Province 53
Table 9: Specications for satellite data. 95
Table 10: List of maps and other spatial data. 95
Table 11: Lands cover classication legend 96
Table 12: Background to study locations in Ha Tinh Province, including key livelihood activities 107
Table 13: Background to study villages in ua ien Hue Province, including key livelihood activities 108
Table 14: Seasonal climatic conditions, hazard impacts and calendar of livelihood activities: Ha Tinh Province 109
Table 15: Seasonal climatic conditions, hazard impacts and calendar of livelihood activities: ua ien Hue Province 110

Table 16: Current livelihood activities and associated problems: study communes in Ha Tinh Province 111
Table 17: Current livelihood activities and associated problem 112
Table 18: Quang An land use and 1 metre sea-level rise 126
Table 19: Quang An percentage land use areas aected by 1 metre sea-level rise 126
Table 20: Vinh Hien land use area inundated by SLR2100 135
Table 21: Ky Ninh land aected by SLR2100 (based on MONRE 2005) 149

ix
Acknowledgements
PEP wishes to acknowledge all those who contributed to this Report. ey include all who participated in village
eldwork, focus group discussions at Commune, District and Provincial level and in Provincial Workshops in Ha Tinh
and ua ien Hue.
In particular, the PEP wishes to thank Challenge to Change, who graciously donated the services of their sta, including
Ms Nguyen Phuc Hoa, to undertake eldworker training.
PEP wishes to thanks IMHEN for supplying the climate change maps and charts showing baseline data and scenario
projections
PEP wishes to thank
Consultant team
• Dr. Michael Parsons
• Dr. Tran i Viet Nga
• Dr. Joanna White
GIS consultant
• Mr. Tran Trung Kien, who prepared the GIS land use and projected sea-level rise maps.
e eldworkers
• In Ha Tinh: Hoang Trung Lap, Dang Minh Ngoc, Tran Hau Khanh, an Van Tu, Nguyen Van Kien and Tran Hai Ha.
• In ua ien Hue: Nguyen Minh Duc, Pham Nguyen anh, Lam i u Suu, Pham i Dieu My, Le i Ngoc
Suong and Bui Vinh Long.
e PMU
• Dr. Truong Manh Tien
• Dr. Nguyen Trung ang

• Ms. Kim i uy Ngoc
• Ms. Nguyen i Ngoc Anh
anks also go to peer reviewers for their suggestions and to Mr. Dao Xuan Lai, Head, UNDP for support to the project.

A. Executive summary
sea-water intrusion and salinization of estuaries can also
result in severe livelihood stress in coastal areas. is stress
on livelihoods is expected to intensify with more sudden
and increased climatic uctuations, accompanied by a
gradual rise in annual average temperature and rainfall.
Ocean warming may result in mass coral bleaching
leaving coastal tourism resort destinations less aractive.
Near-shore shing livelihoods may also be aected as
larger, higher-value sh move further o-shore to cooler,
deeper waters. e aquaculture sector also remains high
risk, due to the catastrophic impact of oods, increasing
temperatures, and impact of pollution on product yields. At
the same time, intensive aquaculture has been contributing
to the degradation of natural capital. ere is evidence
that the scale of aquaculture on the Tam Giang Lagoon
far exceeds the lagoon’s ‘carrying capacity’, for example.
In terms of livelihood security, there is still a signicant
risk that further households will be forced to abandon
aquaculture, suering signicant nancial losses and being
burdened with massive debt. Eects of climate change will
continue to exacerbate and add to existing pressures on
coastal livelihood systems, such as increasing population,
over-exploitation of land, forests and aquatic products, low
education and skill levels, widespread pollution of water
sources, market vagaries and underlying poverty.

A. 2 Addressing issues of scale.
In costing and prioritising climate change adaptation
investments, it is imperative that the dierent levels of
Government, and agencies across each of these levels,
agree on the most appropriate time scales and focal scales
for action. National policy seings for climate change
have proceeded in advance of the development of locally-
developed polices for jointly implementing adaptive
strategies within regions, such as coastal livelihood and
agro-ecological zones. For building climate-resilient
resource-dependent coastal livelihoods, a twinned
approach involving improved regional environmental
governance and livelihood strengthening will need to be
adopted.
While hierarchical government structures and top-
down planning processes have been developed to ensure
A.1 Approaching coastal livelihoods in a
changing climate
is report explores potential paths of resilience in relation
to future climate change for the most at-risk coastal
livelihood systems in the central region of Viet Nam. It
identies measures for formulating adaptive strategies to
• Reduce coastal livelihood vulnerability and build
resilience to climatic shocks and stress.
• Build the resilience of social and ecological systems,
on which these livelihoods depend, to the eects
of climate change and strengthen their capacity to
deliver quality services.
A participatory study was conducted in Ha Tinh and
ien ua Hue Provinces with local households and

community leaders in four coastal communes, provincial,
district and commune authorities, representatives of mass
organisations and technical experts. Women and men
in the study locations are chiey engaged in farming and
shing/aquaculture livelihoods. Climate change poses a
growing threat to these livelihood systems due to eects
on natural resources and other assets upon which they
directly depend. Building resilience of coastal livelihoods
most at risk to climate change thus requires measures
to ensure the resilience of linked ecosystem resources.
is study has sought to capture this linkage through
adoption of a social ecology approach, involving use of
the Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF), Hazard
Capacity Vulnerability Assessment (HCVA), and eco-
resilience analysis.
Using the SLF lens, climate change can be seen as a key
element of the vulnerability context which denes local
livelihoods, through its transformation of familiar seasonal
climatic conditions. e study revealed that coastal
communities are already experiencing the eects of climate
change through shocks, such as increasingly unpredictable
ood and storm paerns damaging assets and aecting
many livelihood activities. ese extreme events dominate
the public perception of emerging climate change, as
evidenced by severe ‘natural disasters’. However eects of
climate change can also be seen in less-newsworthy events
such as prolonged drought. Gradual trends in increasing
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2
consistency in implementation of national objectives in

provinces, there are few governance mechanisms able to
ensure consistency of local planning and local approaches
to implementation across neighbouring provinces
and within eco-regions. Along Viet Nam’s coastal belt,
this inadequacy could inhibit eective development
implementation of long-term adaptation strategies to
climate change, such as sea-level rise. Adaptive strategies
involving conservation of natural resources utilised by
poor rural livelihoods could be aected.
e current national structure and system of local
government has enabled achievement of a high rate of
poverty reduction. However, there has been no similar
success in the reduction of environmental degradation and
resource depletion. Part of the failure may be aributed to
the lack of environmental governance mechanisms able
to eectively enforce environmental regulations across
provinces and within eco-regions, for example along
areas of coastline or in major watersheds. provinces will
be keen to aract new investment to implement adaptive
strategies to minimise negative eects and capture new
opportunities provided by climate change. However for
building ecological resilience Provincial Governments will
need to think, and to act, laterally. Appropriate focal scales
for action for many of these adaptive strategies will require
Governments at Provincial level to focus more strongly on
cooperation and collaboration rather than competition for
new climate change investment. is will require eective
mechanisms for joint implementation.
Appropriate time-scales will also need to be assessed for
each adaptation measure and strategy. Eects of long-term

climate change trends may require a response that does
not t entirely within one single Five Year Plan period. An
appropriate time-scale of decades for some strategies will
require targets to be set for staged implementation within
each plan period. e challenge for local government, and
governance, is to match time scales with focal scales to
ensure longer-term adaptation strategies are successful,
and that nancial commitments are benchmarked, and tied
to progressive achievement of milestones.
Right sequencing of adaptation measures and strategies also
needs to be considered. e eectiveness of some strategies
will be improved or lessened if undertaken before, aer, or
in combination with others. e planting of mangroves as
support for new dyke construction is an example. In Quang
Dien District, it was also recommended that climate change
awareness-raising precede the conducting of training
courses to diversify local livelihoods. Right sequencing
requires multi-stakeholder commitment to a critical path
for implementing climate change adaptation investment.
is critical path can be constructed at dierent focal
scales of political and environmental governance, and for
dierent time-frames. A critical path analysis of this kind
was beyond the scope of this small study. However, the
issue of focal scales of action is examined, for example, in
relation to water management, and suggested time-frames
for identied adaptation measures can be found in Annex
11.
A. 3 Supporting equitable adaptation
Government will need to be a strong player in ensuring
equitable outcomes of climate change adaptation strategies.

Coping strategies focus on what to do when things go bad.
Adaptation strategies focus on what makes things go well.
But some people can do well at the expense of others,
who become poorer. Past resource use has demonstrated
that there could be a sharp dierence between winners
and losers from climate change adaption, independent
of coping strategies. Lessons need to be learned, and
applied, from the expansion of commercial aquaculture
in Tam Giang lagoon following the 1999 ood. is
on the expansion occurred through privatising former
commonly-held shing grounds. It made the beer-o
wealthy, and increased exports, but at the expense of the
livelihood of mobile shers, and those with lile capital
to invest. An extensive intervention by local authorities,
institutions, international agencies and other external
actors was required to ensure more equitable access to
aquatic livelihood resources. External interventions by
institutions in facilitating livelihood change is examined in
Section C.5
Fieldwork research revealed that with the support
of local institutions, such as rural extension services,
and interventions of international agencies, coastal
communities are adapting livelihood strategies in response
to climatic trends. Certain livelihood activities are now
carefully timed in order to minimise overall vulnerability
to climatic hazards. However, some of these adaptation
strategies are less accessible to poor households, given
the higher cost of inputs. In the future, Government will
have to ensure intra-generational and inter-generational
equity in how it strengthens its support processes for

successful livelihood adaptation to gradual climate change.
At village level, tailored adaptive strategies will be needed
for dierent livelihoods in the one area, and identical
livelihoods in dierent areas. Diering vulnerabilities
to hazards according to age, gender, inrmity and other
variables will also need to be taken into account. Section
E.1.2 discusses these issues. At higher levels, trade-os
for short-term advantage must not overwhelm long-term
livelihood sustainability. Government will need to pay heed
to regulating and monitoring of sustainability of livelihood
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
resources bases to ensure necessary delivery of ecosystem
resources and provisioning services are sustained.
Most critical, given the projected drier dry season, is
ensuring adequate environmental ows and supply of good
quality water for consumption and production. Despite
some recent positive developments, such as enhanced
water source protection and local irrigation systems, a
sound water management policy and strategy is needed
eective water use allocation among all sectors and regions
in the river catchment areas is able to meet growing water
demand, protect against hazards, while also maintaining
ecological requirements. Improved water storage will be
critical for agriculture in drought-prone coastal areas,
and may be best achieved through articial re-charge of
aquifers. Section E. 2.5 recommends specic measures for
improving water storage and management.
Supporting the shi from coping to adaptation will
require a collaborative, participatory eort. A prime future

focus for climate change investment (as against disaster
risk management) may be to enhance the resilience of
social and ecological systems to deliver quality services
to support coastal rural livelihoods. But this will only be
achieved through the active participation of those engaged
in these livelihoods, to beer manage their resources and
to improve the sustainability of their livelihood practices.
A top-down/boom-up collaborative eort is needed to
break the terminal cycle of ever-increasing exploitation of
an ever-diminishing and degrading resource. e element
of desperation inherent in the poor’s day-to-day survival
will need to be replaced by a condence that there is a
tomorrow. Individual competition can then give way to
collective collaboration in resource protection and renewal.
is acceptance of having a tomorrow for which to plan,
can grow into an achievable vision for the future. Rural
extension services can coordinate this eort. However to
do so eectively, the mandate of rural extension services
need to be widened to encompass marketing and other
services to meet the challenge posed by climate change to
long-term livelihood sustainability.
At a higher level, these local eorts can be further
supported through mainstreaming of climate change into
development planning. But this is currently impeded
by a lack of a spatial dimension in planning processes.
GPS/GIS hazard mapping down to commune level is
required to beer inform future provincial, district and
commune development planning decisions. Hotspot
areas of ‘livelihood-ecosystem’ dysfunction can also be
identied and targeted through a participatory approach

to hazard mapping. is can then form a core part of
ICZM, and brought into SEA and SEDP formulation. e
challenge will be to avoid maladaptation, when faced with
a choice between development in hazard-prone coastal
areas oering short-term benets but at high risk, and
development more likely to deliver lower-risk, long-term
gains.
1
A. 4 Migration and relocation as
livelihood diversication
Experience in other countries has shown that the ability to
cope with increasing climatic hazards is highly dependent
on the ability to diversify income sources. In the study sites
paid employment options remain limited in coastal areas
and migration to cities presents an important opportunity
for some households to improve their conditions
through remiances. Fieldwork undertaken in this study
supports the view of migration as a household livelihood
diversication strategy, rather than a strategy undertaken
by individuals. Younger male household members are oen
encouraged to seek outside employment. Remiances are
used mainly to meet daily household expenses. In this way,
aged and female household members may enjoy reduced
nancial vulnerability as a result of key male members of
the household becoming seasonal or long-term migrants.
However, they may be le more physically exposed during
typhoons and oods, if they are unable to call upon male
support while trying to care for young children and elderly
household members, as well as safeguard their personal
possessions. With more extreme events being expected

to result from climate change, support will need to be
enhanced for these vulnerable groups.
As the rural-urban migration rate increases, competition
for beer-paying jobs will become more intense.
Vocational and skills training needs to be provided for
migrants to obtain quality employment to increase
remiance payment levels. In areas where reselement
away from traditional livelihood resource-bases is deemed
necessary an integrated relocation package should be
oered. is package would involve matching existing
core competencies with alternative occupations, tailoring
current and acquiring new competencies through formal
course training and re-skilling; assistance in migration and
reselement; and facilitating acquisition of social capital to
help in job-placement and retention.
A. 5 Hard and soft infrastructure
International experience has shown that considering hazard
risks when addressing basic development needs, such as the
1
Maladaptation is dened as “business-as-usual development,
which by overlooking climate change impacts, inadvertently
increases exposure and/or vulnerability to climate change.” OECD
(2008) p.30
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4
provision of housing, water supplies and the planning of
infrastructure, is essential in order to build resilience. is
was found to be the case in the study locations. Housing
was found to be poorly adapted to intensifying hazards.
e poor were particularly vulnerable, but much of the

more costly, ‘modernised’ housing enjoyed by wealthier
households was also found to be highly vulnerable to
typhoons and oods.
Sea level rise is a seen as an emergent climate change threat,
but from the viewpoint of commune and village leaders
observing it rst-hand as sea incursion, it is not new. While
a threat of a one-metre rise in sea-level by 2100 may be
adequately dealt with in the future, though at some cost, by
dikes, there is a need to act more quickly to halt salinization
of land through hydraulic eects in aquifers, and in rivers
during dry seasons. While marine shore communes were
shown as most aected, this study showed unequal impacts
of a projected one metre sea level rise in the various sites.
e question of whether or not to build barriers to
counter seawater intrusion, was seen as less relevant than
how and how not build. Strategies combining hard with
so infrastructure will most likely be required to manage
this hazard, though a strategic withdrawal, or ‘managed
retreat’ is another option that could be explored, given
an assessment of a gain in livelihood opportunities. A
centralised approach to both dike construction and
management will be required, with a centralised authority
to oversee both construction and maintenance. Upgrading
skills may allow local labour and quality local materials to
be utilised in construction contracts.
A. 6 Sectoral climate-resilient approaches
Adaptive strategies for agriculture will require support
for existing adaptation measures as well as changes in
management and farming techniques to reduce risk of crop
failure. is includes a recognition of the ‘feminisation’ of

agriculture, with more women entering farming than men,
in the delivery of extension services and the promotion
of new investment in extensive export-oriented agro-
industry. For shing and aquaculture, strict enforcement
of waste treatment regulations is vital. As with agriculture,
new climate-resilient species may be introduced, but not
without being carefully assessed for negative impacts on
local biodiversity. Research on how to best manage high
uctuations in salinity will be needed.
Sectoral support will be needed to be delivered in a variety
of ways. Improved access by the most at-risk to information
on climate risks, adaptation measures, and market
information can be provided through communication
infrastructure. Beer climate change awareness, including
the need to diversify local skill bases, can be a by-product
of participatory hazard mapping, if it involves the most
vulnerable. Access to more eective credit, insurance
and other nancial services, particularly for the poor,
including non-cash loans will be needed. Building nancial
incentive systems into loans could encourage a reduction
in environmental impacts. ere is potential for these to be
linked to carbon market options, e.g. mangrove forestation.
Large livestock is oen the poor’s most valuable income-
earning asset. Accessible, secure, safe storage and protection
from climatic hazards for livestock will need to be provided.
is will also enable coastal primary producers to avoid
selling when prices are least favourable.
A mechanism for sharing and exchanging information
on adopted adaptation strategies is required. ‘Sister-
Commune” relationships could be established to enable

leaders of communes with shared characteristics to
exchange information on what works, what doesn’t and
lessons learned. is could strengthen local adaptation
practices for similar social ecologies, such as those found
in Ky Ninh and Vinh Hien Communes. Government
could assist by monitoring livelihood support, to track
households assets and climate hazards over time, to provide
insights into how successful current risk management
options are in improving the resilience of communities.
B. Introduction
B.1 Objectives and research questions
is report explores potential paths of resilience in
relation to future climate change for livelihood systems in
a number of locations in the central coastal region of Viet
Nam. e strategies outlined are based on the ndings of
a participatory study conducted with provincial, district
and commune authorities, mass organizations, local
households, communities and technical experts from April
– June 2009. A review of secondary literature, including
documented experiences in other parts of the world was
also undertaken.
e overall objectives of the study were to identify policy
measures and support interventions for building short
and long-term resilience of coastal communities most at-
risk to the impacts of climate change, assess the capacity
of local institutions, support networks and ecological
systems to sustain current livelihood activities, given likely
climate change impacts, and propose means of enhancing
livelihood opportunities in the face of increased climatic
stresses and shocks. e study was undertaken in a number

of communes in ua ien Hue and Ha Tinh provinces,
where weather-related hazards occur on a regular basis and
the impacts of climate change are already being observed.
To enable beer preparedness for climate variability,
improved information on seasonal forecasts, as well as
longer term, downscaled climate change scenario data are
necessary to ensure that strategies to reduce vulnerability
respond to underlying trends.
2
New scenarios and baseline
data for the North-Central region prepared by the Viet Nam
Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
(IMHEN) were therefore used by researchers to stimulate
discussions at all levels regarding the implications of
likely climate change over the coming decades, and
possible responses. Researchers also examined historical
data concerning weather-related and other shocks and
stresses on archetypical rural livelihoods and the current
vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of dierent social
groups living in coastal communes in the study areas. e
current policy context for climate change responses in Viet
Nam was also reviewed.
e specic research questions posed by the study were as
follows:
2
Wilderspin and Hung, (2007)
• What are the past and current vulnerabilities of poor,
medium and well-o coastal livelihood groups, and
women and men, to climatic stresses and shocks?
• What have been the major changes in livelihoods in

the study areas over recent years and what were the
drivers of these changes? To what extent have these
changes built resilience to future climate change
impacts?
• How can the most at-risk coastal livelihood groups
become more resilient to climate change trends,
including slow-onset stresses and sudden shocks, and
contribute to building climate-resilient livelihoods for
future generations?
• How can the robustness of socio-economic
institutions, local networks and ecological systems
which support local livelihoods, and create new
livelihood opportunities, be enhanced?
B.2 Methodology
A detailed description of the methodology is provided
in Annex 1, and a summary is presented here. e three-
month study was undertaken in an iterative manner, and
included:
• Preliminary data collection and literature review:
including specially commissioned maps and charts
from IMHEN of down-scaled climate change baseline
data and A2 and B2 scenarios up to 2100. ese
maps and charts formed the basis for discussions at
Provincial, District and Commune levels. (Annex 2)
• GIS desk-top analysis: using satellite imaging, maps
and charts to show such data as land use, population
distribution, infrastructure, and downscaled IMHEN
projected inundation impacts of a 1-metre sea-level
rise for the four study communes. (See Annex 3)
• Siteselection:

o Two Provinces were chosen: Ha Tinh, which has
a PEP Provincial Project Unit based in Ha Tinh
DONRE, and ua ien Hue, selected on the
advice of IMHEN, due to the strong availability
of reliable climate change data.
INTRODUCTION
6
o Both Provinces are vulnerable to regular
typhoons, oods and droughts; they also have
the highest land inundation coverage of a
projected 1 metre sea level rise in the region, and
outside the Mekong and Red River Delta areas.
o Two communes in each Province were selected
as representative of archetypical coastal
livelihood zones, following discussions with
senior provincial ocials. All represent coastal
rural livelihoods most at risk to climate change
hazards as well as opportunities that might be
oered by positive impacts of climate change.
Moreover, they are in comparable geographic
locations, allowing for some comparative
analysis.
o ree villages in each commune were suggested
by Commune People’s Commiees on the basis
of their representativeness of main commune
livelihoods.
• Trainingandeldwork:
o Field researchers aended a two-day workshop
in analytical frameworks and qualitative research
methodology.

ey selected the eldwork
methodology to be followed, drawing upon P
tools and HVCA.
o Following the training, meetings were with
provincial, district and commune authorities and
mass organizations’ representatives to discuss
study objectives, and to share and exchange data.
o Fieldwork was then undertaken, and included
separate meetings with women and men.
However lile sex-disaggregated data was
collected.
3
• Focus Group Discussions: were held with local
authorities and mass organizations’ representatives;
rstly at the commune, then at the district and then
at the provincial level.
• Ayouthmeeting: facilitated by the local DONRE and
Youth Union representatives, held with around three
hundred teenage students from Viet-Duc Vocational
College in Ha Tinh.
• Aworkshop was held in each province and a National
Workshop was held in Hanoi to discuss the dra Final
Report.
3
UNDP/Oxfam’s study on gender and climate change, with
eldwork undertaken in Quang Tri using the same IMHEN data as
used in this study, may redress this limitation.
B.3 Conceptual approaches employed
Coastal rural livelihoods most at risk to climate change

are those directly dependent upon climate-sensitive
resources. It follows that building the resilience of these
livelihoods will also require building the resilience of the
ecosystems maintaining these resources. Resilience is thus
dened as the capacity of linked socio-ecological systems
to absorb recurrent weather-related disturbances, while
retaining essential structures, processes and feedbacks.
4

Understanding the linkages between ecological systems
and human societies (and associated livelihood activities)
is vital in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance the
resilience of these linked systems in coastal areas. To
explore these linkages, the study draws upon the concepts
of eco-system resilience, the sustainable livelihoods
framework (SLF) and hazard and vulnerability capacity
assessment. (A full account of these is given in Annex 4.)
e SLF provides a people-centred method of examining
the various factors and relationships which result in
sustainable livelihood activities and outcomes. Sustainable
livelihoods are those which can cope with and recover from
stresses and shocks, maintain or enhance their capabilities,
assets and entitlements, while not undermining the
natural resource base.
5
e SLF has generally been
applied to present-day households and communities,
however climate change means that the time horizon of
‘sustainable development’ needs to be extended to include
next generations and ensure intergenerational equality.

6
A
schematic presentation of the SLF is shown in Figure 1.
In this framework, ve ‘capitals’ or ‘assets’ - natural,
physical, human, social and nancial – are presented as the
core basis for livelihood activities at individual, household
or group level, but these are inuenced by a range of inter-
linked factors, including the ‘vulnerability context’: issues
and trends related to nature and the environment, markets,
political stability etc. e ve capitals are also aected by
and can, in turn, inuence prevailing policies, institutions
and processes. In order to maximise livelihood outcomes
the poorest and most vulnerable need to not only have
access to but rights over various assets. Access to and
ownership of assets is oen highly variable both within and
amongst households and communities, hence, depending
on the scale and scope of any analysis, disaggregation
by gender, age and other variables is advisable to fully
understand livelihood dynamics in any given seing.
4
Holling, C. S. (1973). Berkes, F., J. Colding, and C. Folke. (2003);
Adger, N. W. (2000)
5
Chambers and Conway, (1992).
6
Neees (2008)
7
INTRODUCTION
Figure 1: Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
7

7
Adapted from Neees K., (2000)
Financial
employment

credit &

savinas
Physical
household
goods,
infrastructure
Human
population,

health, skills

&
education

Natural
water, land,
minerals, flora,
fauna
Social
networks,
information
Asset
Livelihood
Strategies

Of social
actors:
women,
men,
household,
community
Natural
resources or
market-
based
Diversity
Policies,
institutions
&
processes
Legislation,
culture,
governance
structures,
policies,
programmes,
plans
Livelihood

Outcomes

more
income
reduced
vulnerability

improved
food
security
improved
social equity
improved
environmental
resources
sustainability
non-use
values of
natural
resources
Livelihood Capital

Vulnerability
Context
trends,
seasonality,
shocks,

Human-induced climate change
impacts on resilience of ecosystem
resources and services
INTRODUCTION
8
been estimated that the total damage caused by natural
disasters, particularly typhoons, oods and landslides,
costs the country in the region of 1% of GDP.
10

Climate change eects are already emerging. In June 2009
MONRE published updated climate change baseline data
and scenario projections.
11
It noted that:
• According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in
2007, the global average temperature has risen about
0.74
0
C for the period of 1906 – 2005 and the warming
trend over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the
previous 50 years.
• During the last 50 years (1958 – 2007), the annual
average temperature in Viet Nam increased about 0.5
0

to 0.7
0
C.
• Winter temperatures increased faster than those of
summer and temperatures in Northern climate zones
increased faster than those of Southern climate zones.
• e annual average temperature for the last four
decades (1961 – 2000) was higher than that of the
three previous decades (1931 – 1960).
• In recent years, there were more typhoon with a
higher intensity aecting Viet Nam. e typhoon
track has a tendency of moving southward and the
typhoon season tends to end later. ere were more
typhoons with abnormal movement.

• Sea level at Hon Dau station rose nearly 20cm over
the past 50 years.
Future projections of climate change for North-Central
Viet Nam, drawn from the June 2009 MONRE data, are
presented in Tables 1 to 3.
Table 1: Changes in annual mean temperature (
0
C) relative to the
period 1980-1999 North Central Region.
Scenarios 2050 2100
Low emission scenario (B1) 1.4 1.9
Medium emission scenario (B2) 1.5 2.8
High emission scenario (A2) 1.5 3.6
10
Estimate by General Department of Statistics for 2007, based on
an assessment of impact in 50 provinces and cities, cited in H.M.
Hien ‘Climate Change and Variability Assessment: Agricultural
Implication in Viet Nam’. Paper presented at International Symposium
on Geoinformatics for Spatial Infrastructure Development in Earth
and Allied Sciences (2008).
11
MONRE (2009). For the record, earlier IMHEN data used by this
study is set out in Annex 2.
e same type of disaggregation is needed to appreciate the
varying vulnerabilities of women and men with varying
degrees of empowerment to dierent hazards. Using
HVCA in combination with the SLF to beer elucidate the
diering vulnerabilities of social actors to climate hazards
allows for beer capture of this variability. HVCA involves
a participatory analysis of past paerns of hazards and

present threats at the community level (hazardassessment),
combined with an understanding of the underlying causes
of why hazards become disasters (vulnerabilityassessment)
and of the available resources an aected community uses
to cope with the adverse eects (capacity assessment).
8

(How HVCA was used in this study can be seen in Section
C. 4).
Together, the SLF - HVCA framework and the concept
of socio-ecological resilience allows for the move from
assessing diering vulnerabilities of dierent groups of
women and men to climatic hazards, to assessing dierent
vulnerabilities of most at-risk livelihoods to dierent long-
term climate change trends. Underlying this shi is the
increasingly gendered nature of agriculture, and shing
and aquaculture activities.
9
e combined approach is
able to provide a strong foundation for research on current
climate change eects and the identication of appropriate
adaptation options. Projections of future climate change
scenarios can also be used to ensure recommended
adaptation measures take into account probable long-term
trends.
B.4 Climate change eects
Viet Nam is one of the countries in the world most prone to
extreme weather events. e country is regularly subjected
to typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions.
ese give rise to lowland inundation (eg Hanoi, November

2008), river oods (Mekong 2000, 2001) and storm surges
(Central Coast, 1999). In upland areas heavy rains cause
ash ooding, oen resulting in landslides that increase
sedimentation loads in rivers, leading to more extensive
lowland ooding. As well as these weather-related shocks,
Viet Nam also experiences slow on-set weather hazards.
Drought, and seawater intrusion into estuaries aect both
agriculture and aquaculture livelihoods. It has recently
8
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center: hp://www.adpc.net/PDR-
SEA/cbdo-dr/chapter3-4.html
9
For example, the increasing ‘feminization’ of agriculture in Viet
Nam points to a greater vulnerability of rural women, compared to
men, to climatic hazards and resource degradation. Two-thirds of
rural women are primarily engaged in farming, compared to half of
rural men. Almost all of the new participants in the agriculture sector
are women ADB, (2006), UNIFEM (2009).
9
INTRODUCTION
Table 2: Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to the period of
1980 – 1999, North Central Region
Scenarios 2050 2100
Low emission scenario (B1) 3.8 5.0
Medium emission scenario (B2) 4.0 7.7
High emission scenario (A2) 3.7 9.7
Table 3: Sea level rise (cm) relative to the period of 1980 - 1999
Scenarios 2050 2100
Low emission scenario (B1) 28 65
Medium emission scenario (B2) 30 75

Highest emission scenario (A1F1) 33 100
ey show annual average temperature increasing, total
annual rainfall and rainy season rainfall increasing while
dry season rainfall decreases, and a rise in sea level by
2100 between 65cm to one metre. ese future changes in
climate may be experienced as both a ‘shock’ and a ‘stress’
to coastal rural livelihood systems, that could include:
• A reduction in land for agriculture and human
selements
• Seawater intrusion into estuaries, especially in the dry
season, aecting brackish water aquaculture
• Increasing damage from oods, storms, and other
extreme climatic events, and
• A rise in human and animal diseases.
12
However, in the longer-term, new opportunities could be
opened up by rising sea levels for expanding aquaculture.
Due to cumulative impacts on natural resources, agricultural
production, industrial output and labour productivity and
infrastructure, overall economic development is also likely
to be severely challenged.
13
e fact that tourist resorts
and new industrial developments in Viet Nam are mostly
located on the coastal areas and plains that are susceptible to
sea level rise (and associated shoreline erosion), typhoons,
tropical storms and saline intrusion into freshwater sources,
amongst other impacts, has serious implications and poses
particular risks.
14

Given its impact on GDP, infrastructure
and general socio-economic development, climate change
will make pro-poor growth dicult.
15
Moreover, as climate
12
See Chaudhry and Ruysschart (2007), for more detail on expected
impacts on agriculture, sheries and aquaculture, and WHO Viet
Nam prole on increased health risks.
13
DFID (2004b).
14
Wilderspin and Hung (2007).
15
DFID (2004b).
extremes constitute ‘covariant risks’ (i.e. simultaneously
aecting a wide range of people), current safety nets are
likely to be overstretched. ese include both formal
systems of social assistance and support, and informal
systems such as social networks.
16
B.5 Vulnerability to climate change
Climate extremes or unseasonal changes can cause severe
shocks that set households and communities back. Coping
with such events can result in a loss of assets, negative
impacts on health and can require high expenditure to
recover.
17
Non-poor women and men with outstanding
loans and high mortgage repayments may be nancially

vulnerable to the sudden loss of physical and other assets.
In contrast, poor women and men with lile property
and substandard housing may be more physically than
nancially exposed to weather-related hazards. Resulting
injuries to adult family members may place more burdens
on poor women who are expected to take on the role
of primary care-giver, and severely curtail their social
networks. Yet for many poor households which rely on
subsistence and income-generation activities susceptible
to natural hazards seasonal climatic events and trends also
produce signicant stress. is is especially true for those
who live in drought-prone or ood-prone locations, or
face a steady decline in productivity due to increasing or
uctuating salinity. Hence climate change adds urgency
to the need to understand and address the vulnerability of
the poor women and men to current and future climatic
variability and to ensure that policies and programmes
work to reduce this vulnerability and enhance adaptation
and resilience to changing conditions.
Recent experience demonstrates that the lives, health
and property of the poor women and men are at the
greatest risk of climate-related hazards, while they may
also be disproportionately aected by climate change
due to a decline in common property resources such as
sheries or forests, upon which they depend for their
livelihoods.
18
At the same time, those most at risk of
climate change, including poor female household heads
who must play multiple roles of main income-earner,

child-raiser and primary care-giver, oen have limited
information or nancial and technical support to adapt
to their changing world.
19
In Viet Nam, climate change
has profound implications for poor women and men,
particularly as many subsist in marginal environments
16
DFID, (2004c).
17
Ibid
18
DFID (2004a); IIED (2007). Ironically, therefore, those who
have contributed least to climate change are most vulnerable to its
impacts.
19
Chaudhry and Ruysschart (2007).
INTRODUCTION
10
and have seen many of the safety nets that existed under
the previous centrally planned economy removed, leaving
them extremely vulnerable to climate-related hazards and
the disasters which regularly ensue.
20
e rural poor and
near-poor living in coastal areas are one of the groups most
susceptible to adverse climatic events, as agriculture and
sheries are sectors which are particularly susceptible to
climate change impacts.
21

e already dicult situation in
these communities is likely to be further compounded over
the long term.
22
e North-Central coastal region in Viet Nam is one of the
geographical areas most at risk of climate change hazards
and is one of the regions with the highest incidence
and severity of poverty, which may in part be due to the
historical impact of natural disasters.
23
e vast majority of
the population in this region is involved in the agricultural
sector or otherwise dependent upon natural resources
(water, forestry, sheries) for their livelihoods, hence
their wellbeing is profoundly inuenced by weather
conditions. e observed increase in the frequency of
climate extremes in this region is of particular concern, as it
reduces the time for poor women and men to recover from
one climatic shock to another and to rebuild assets to cope
with the persistent stresses posed by changing conditions;
traditional coping strategies are unlikely to be sucient in
this context.
24
B.6 Policy and institutional context
Since ratifying the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994, and the Kyoto
Protocol in 2002, the Vietnamese government has made
various eorts, through law and policy-making and some
practical mitigation and adaptation initiatives, to respond
to the threats posed by climate change. A critical review of

some key current policy seings related to climate change
adaptation is set out in Annex 5: the National Target
Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC);
the Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development in
Viet Nam (Viet Nam Agenda 21)
25
; the Second National
Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and
Management to 2020; and the Integrated Coastal Zone
Management (ICZM) Strategy – ua ien Hue Province.
e government’s Initial National Communication (INC)
to the UNFCCC in 2003 provided a vulnerability and
20
Ibid
21
K. Neees (2008).
22
CARE (2007).
23
Wilderspin and Hung (2007).
24
DFID (2004c).
25
For more information on Viet Nam Agenda 21, see hp://va21.org.
adaptation assessment of climate change impacts based
on models in use at the time, together with options for
the mitigation of greenhouse gases. e second national
communication to the UNFCCC is planned for 2010,
and is likely to include the ndings of more in-depth
vulnerability and adaptation assessments as well as a policy

framework for implementing strategic responses.
e basis for adaptation measures have already been
established in a number of recent laws and strategies.
e National Strategy for Environmental Protection
26
,
for example, states that one of the objectives to be
achieved by 2010 is to improve capacity in preventing and
controlling natural disasters, particularly those related to
climate change, and includes plans to reduce the impacts
of sea level rise in coastal areas. Furthermore, the Law on
Environmental Protection (2005) expressly stipulates
that the State shall be responsible for building capacity
for forecasting and warning of natural disasters in order
to prevent and restrict adverse consequences of natural
disasters and environmental incidents. While this Law
does not specically detail climate change responses, it
is supported by a range of Decrees and sector specic
regulations in areas such as land use planning and coastal
protection which provide grounds for undertaking climate
change adaptation measures.
In 2007 it was noted that there was limited government
ownership of an adaptive approach to climate change-
related risks, and limited state funding available for
climate change adaptation.
27
During the same year, and
in recognition of the challenges posed by climate change,
the Prime Minister called for the formulation of a National
Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-

RCC) which can be considered the most strategic response
to date.
B.7 Additional stresses posed by climate
change
Increasing climatic hazards are just some of many
pressures aecting the resource-based livelihoods of
coastal communities in Central Viet Nam. Other pressures
include:
• Increasing population placing pressures on limited
natural resources.
• Over-exploitation of natural resources, leading to a
decrease in the availability of aquatic resources, land
and forest areas.
26
National Strategy for Environmental Protection until 2010 and
Vision towards 2020, approved December 2003.
27
Chaudhry and Ruysschart, (2007).
11
INTRODUCTION
• Overall low education and skill levels.
• Pollution of water sources from human and animal
waste and uncontrolled and unregulated release of
untreated pollutants from agriculture, aquaculture,
food processing and other activities.
• Poverty – due to lack of land, credit, and labour, or
the injury or chronic illness of the main household
income-earner.
• Market dynamics (not explored in our study but
inevitably aect income for agricultural and shing

activities)
28
.
Future climate change eects will generally add to and
exacerbate present shocks and stress. While risks of losses
of livestock and produce from cold temperatures will
decrease, and salinity and coastal erosion rates could be
reduced by sea-walls, increased temperature and rainfall
coupled with more extreme weather events will add extra
layers of shock and stress on livelihoods, and place increased
pressure on the livelihood resource-base. e mix of
adaptation and mitigation strategies will need to be further
rened and developed to meet this threat. Such a mix can
be expected to combine both reactive and anticipatory
adaptation strategies, and feature autonomous responses
and planned interventions that will need to be harmonised
to be successful. From the point of this study, ‘success’ will
be measured by increased climate-resilience of most at-risk
coastal rural livelihoods and natural resources. While it is
acknowledged that for Government, ‘success’ will be seen
in broader terms, nevertheless, Government intervention,
supportive of building local livelihood resilience will
remain critical.
e complex range of problems outlined above do not
only aect communities, but are already signicant
issues facing government, in terms of policy-making and
implementation and the work of local support systems,
such as extension services. is is one of the reasons
why climate change should be considered in the context
of other changing conditions and immediate needs, and

climate change adaptation should be viewed as something
to be examined and integrated within existing policies,
management regimes and interventions. Importantly,
capacity is already over-stretched in the face of existing
problems. All of this is to make the point that there will be
no easy solution to x what is happening now and what is
going to occur. An enormous challenge is emerging on top
of other, costly challenges facing the Government in Viet
Nam.
28
ese issues were conrmed through focus group discussions and
provincial-level workshops where preliminary study ndings were
shared.
Chief amongst these challenges is rapid urbanisation and
associated rural-to-urban migration. ey are key elements
of Viet Nam’s rapid socio-economic growth and poverty
reduction, but they also main drivers of environmental
degradation.
29
Local authorities in our study areas foresee
out-migration trends being intensied by eects of climate
change.
Figures released from the latest census show that in
2009, around 70% of Vietnam’s population live in rural
areas, and 30% live in urban areas. If the current rate of
urban population was maintained, by 2047 this situation
would be reversed. Around 70% of Viet Nam’s population
would live in urban areas, and 30% live in rural areas. By
2050, 75% of the population would be living in cities. On
these projections, the answer to the question what is the

future of rural livelihoods in Central Viet Nam is – urban
livelihoods.
30

In some ways this future has already arrived. Ha Noi and
Ho Chi Minh city are expanding into rural areas, and in
the future, regional cities could follow suit. Rural-urban
household livelihood strategies strengthen the linkages.
Remiances from urban and overseas family members are
subsidising livelihoods of many households in our study
sites. In some cases their earnings and social networks
enable other family members to be launched into urban
and overseas labour markets.
Continued coastal resort tourism strip development may
add to the urbanisation of the countryside. However,
higher temperatures and more frequent, longer lasting,
erratic extreme weather events may ensure shortened
seasons for coastal tourism as well as agriculture and
aquaculture. is will impact on opportunities for local
employment. In the longer-term, coastal tourism will have
to meet the challenge posed by storms and sea-level rise on
beach erosion and fragile corals, the laer also threatened
by the possibility of coral bleaching due to ocean warming.
However, opportunities provided by sea-level rise could be
seized to expand aquatic recreational tourism in areas like
Tam Giang lagoon, sheltered from the coast and closer to
urban areas. Ironically, if all the detailed environmental and
resource protection measures in current local tourism plans
are implemented, the resource-base for agriculture and
shing will be greatly enhanced.

31
Increased environmental
investment driven by coastal ‘ecotourism’ plans could prove
extremely benecial for coastal resource-based livelihoods.
29
MONRE (2005)
30
A further discussion of trends in urbanisation and linked rural-
urban migration is provided in Annex 10.
31
ua ien Hue Province People’s Commiee No: 45/
CTR-UBND Hue, May 27
th
2008 Marine and Lagoon Tourism
Development Program by 2012.

C.1 Introduction to study sites
As detailed in the Methodology, baseline data were
collected for six villages across two communes in two
provinces: Hong Loc and Ky Ninh in the Districts of Loc
Ha and Ky Anh respectively, Ha Tinh Province, and Quang
An and Vinh Hien in the Districts of Quang Dien and Phu
Loc respectively, ua ien Hue Province (Figure 2).
C. Rural Livelihood Trends



Loc Ha
Ky Anh
Quang Dien

Vinh Hien
Ha Tinh is one of the poorest Provinces in Vietnam.
Around 30% of the people in the Province are classied as
poor
33
and as of 2006, per capita GDP in Ha Tinh stood
at around USD $250 per year, compared with the national
average of USD $700
34
. e Province experiences harsh
climatic conditions. High and medium mountainous areas
33
Ha Tinh Hunger and Eradication and Poverty Reduction Board
(HEPR) report , 4 July 2001.
34
Ba Trinh, (2006). is compares with gures almost a decade
earlier of VND1.8M, compared with the national average of
VND2.7M Statistical Yearbook, 1997, Vietnam General Statistics
Oce, Statistical Publishing House: Hanoi, (1998).
Figure 2: Four study sites - Hong Loc Commune in Loc Ha District and Ky Ninh commune in Ky Anh District (Ha Tinh Province); Quang An
Commune in Quang Dien District, and Vinh Hien Commune in Phu Loc District (Thua Thien Hue Province)
32
32
IMHEN (2009) commissioned for this study. Projected inundation area of a one metre rise in sea level is shown in red.
33
Ha Tinh Hunger and Eradication and Poverty Reduction Board (HEPR) report , 4 July 2001.
34
Ba Trinh, (2006). is compares with gures almost a decade earlier of VND1.8M, compared with the national average of VND2.7M
Statistical Yearbook, 1997, Vietnam General Statistics Oce, Statistical Publishing House: Ha Noi, (1998).
RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS

14
make up 45% of the land mass in the province, while the
lowland and coastal areas account for 17.3% and 12.7%
of the natural land respectively.
35
Dry and hot weather
prevails from March to August, when temperatures can
reach up to 41
0
C, regularly bringing drought. During the
peak of the drought season (May, June and July) sea water
intrusion into water sources can occur. e wet season –
from around September to February, brings much lower
temperatures and is punctuated by ooding. Indeed, Ha
Tinh is one of the provinces with the highest rainfall in the
central regions, averaging 2,000 mm per year.
36
Typhoons
also regularly strike the Province, sometimes causing
extreme damage. Typical climatic phenomena in Ha Tinh
include storms, severe and damaging cold, ash oods, dry
and hot westerly winds and whirlwinds.
e Province of ua ien Hue has a complex topography
and is made up of a mountainous area, hills, plains and
lagoons separated from the sea by sandbanks. It has 126km
of coastline. e Tam Giang – Cau Hai Lagoon
37
, which
extends over an area of almost 22,000 hectares, and is
the biggest coastal lagoon in Southeast Asia, is situated in

the Province. is lagoon is home to 350,000 people (a
third of the entire provincial population). Geographically,
Tam Giang Lagoon is a partly closed lagoon system and
communicates with the sea through two estuaries
38
:
uan An and Tu Hien. e lagoon receives a mixture of
fresh and salt water resulting in regular changes in salinity,
both seasonally and spatially. e lagoon’s unique form
and physical characteristics have created a brackish water
ecosystem, providing a habitat for many species of sh,
shellsh, birds and marine mammals. At the same time,
the lagoon is vulnerable to pollution due to chemical run-
o from agricultural activities in the neighbouring rural
areas,
39
and other sources. Communities living close to the
estuaries of the Tam Giang Lagoon depend upon them for
their livelihoods. At present, most of the shallow areas close
to the lagoon edge have been converted to aquaculture;
between 2000 and 2005, wetland conversion resulted in
the aquaculture area doubling to 4,000 hectares.
40
Heavy rains in the watersheds of the Huong and Bo rivers
oen cause ooding in the lowlands to the east of ua
ien Hue Province. e reduction of natural forest in
35
Ba Trinh, (2006).
36
Ibid.

37
Although ocially termed the ‘Tam Giang – Cau Hai lagoon’, to
facilitate reading this will henceforth be referred to as Tam Giang
Lagoon.
38 Estuaries are semi-enclosed coastal bodies of water, which have
a free connection with the open sea and within which sea water is
measurably diluted with freshwater from land drainage.
39
Agricultural production employs just over 55% of the rural labour
force in ua ien Hue Province. Mai Van Xuan (2008)
40
Ibid.
the upland areas in the twenty years between 1980 and
2000 can be considered a major contributing factor to the
increase in serious oods over the past decades.
41
e main
ood season is from October to December, coinciding with
the rainy season, which runs from August to December,
but the ‘small’ oods occur between May and June. Late,
short-term oods also occur from late December to early
January of the next year. Coastal areas can therefore
experience oods a number of times every year. Rain
and storms coming from the sea are regular occurrences,
oen resulting in higher tidal ow. e dry season in the
Province runs from January to August.
C. 2 Overview of livelihood activities in
study areas
C. 2.1 Location and livelihoods
Four maps (Figures 3 to 6) present overall land use paerns

in the Communes, providing an overall indication of local
livelihood zones, and show the location of the villages
selected for this study. Hong Loc Commune in Ha Tinh and
Quang An Commune in ua ien Hue both lie North
and not far from the main Provincial towns. Agriculture is
the main livelihood. Ky Ninh and Vinh Hien Commune
both lie in the far southern end of the provinces of Ha
Tinh and ua ien Hue respectively, wedged between
the north side of an estuary outlet and an exposed marine
coastline. Fishing and aquaculture are the main livelihoods.
Hong Loc Commune (Figure 3) is one of the poorest
communes in Loc Ha District. A large area of at land is
used for the cultivation of rice, maize, peanut, sweet potato,
cassava, and other crops, fed by a canal system linked to
a northern reservoir and the river in the south. Fishing
and freshwater aquaculture are conducted by villages
close to the river banks. Hong Loc is, in fact, classed as a
mountainous commune; it has large areas of uninhabited
forested elevated land, mainly to then north, but also to
the west; villagers living close to these areas incorporate
the cultivation and harvesting of forest products into their
livelihood strategies.
Ky Ninh (Figure 4) is a coastal commune with two main
shing livelihood zones along the northern inlets and
banks of the Vinh River estuary, and inland paddy areas.
Local livelihoods include near-shore shing by men, river
shing by women, agriculture and brackish aquaculture.
e commune has seen a substantial out-migration of
individuals in search of employment; many households
are supported by remiances from members who have

migrated.
41
Center for Agriculture Forestry Research & Development (2007).