Làm thế nào để hạ lãi suất cho vay? doc

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Lam the nao
ha lai suat cho vayP
Nghj quyet 23 cua Chinh phu
daa
ra djnh hudng hq
mat bdng Idi sud't xudng muc: huy dong
10%/ndm,
cho vay
127o/ndm
(gpi tdt
Id
"vdo 10, ra
12").
Vdy
thuc te
didn
bien ra sao vd
Idm
the ndo de thuc
hien djnh hudng ndy?
^
PHUONG NGOC MINH
V
I diln bien thuc te, mat
bang lai suat
ciia
Viet
Nam hien nay khoang
13-
14%/nam

dd'i vdi cho vay va tren
dudi
11,5%/nam
dd'i vdi lai suat
huy ddng. Day la mat bang lai
suat kha cao khi xet trdn nam mat:
cao so vdi cung ky nam trude; cao
so vdi dinh hudng trdn; cao so vdi
mat bang lai suat cua cac nude
trong khu vuc va tren the gidi; cao
so vdi kha nang sinh
Ipi
cua ngudi
di vay; do dd han
che
viec tiep can
vdn, de'n hieu quii va
siic
canh
tranh ciing nhu viec thuc hien
muc tieu tang trudng kinh
te'.
Tdc
dp tang trudng du np
tin
dung sau
5 thang
vln
cdn thap.
Tinh

chung 5 thang
(tiic
la
thang 5/2010 so vdi thang
12/2009), tdc dp tang trudng du np
mdi dat xap
xi
8,2%, cdn thap xa so
vdi chi tieu dinh hudng tang trudng
tin dung
25%
cho ca nam 2010.
Tdc dp tang gia tieu dung
thang 4
chi
cdn 0,14%, thang
5
chi
cdn 0,27%-
tile
la
vaii
de ndng
nha't da ha nhiet, lai suat giri tiet
kiem da chuyen tir thuc
am
trong
3 thang
tir
thang 12/2009 de'n

thang
2/2010,
sang thuc duong tit
thang 3/2010. Neu ca nam nay
thuc hien dupe
miic
tieu tang gia
tieu diing khdng
vucft
qua 7% cua
Qudc hdi hoac muc tieu mdi dilu
chinh 8% cua Chinh
phii,
thi lai
suat tiet kiem
vln
thuc duong.
Nhung thuc te, lai suat huy ddng
da khdng giam ma gan day cdn
tang len va hien d
miic
tren
11,5%.
Tmh hinh tren dupe ly giai bdi
nhilu nguyen nhan cd hdn quan
rang budc
iSn
nhau. Cd nguyen
nhan do mot so ngan hang thuong
mai (NHTM) cd phan nhd, cd vdn

dilu le thap, thanh khoan khdng
cao hoac gap khd khan, gia tri
gia'y td cd gia it,
nen
phai day
manh huy ddng bang lai suat cao
hon, nham thu hiit lupng tiln
nhan rdi cua dan cu. Cac NHTM
Idn,
cd vdn dilu le cao, tuy khdng
gap khd khan vl thanh khoan,
tham chi cdn du da vdn de cho
vay trdn thi trudng lien ngan
hang, cung budc phai nang lai
suat huy ddng len de giii chan
khach hang. Cd nguyen nhan tit
16 Thue
Nhi NiTflc
•
so
24 (286)
-
KY
4/6/2010
J
Dien
nan
doanh nghiep
%
2.5

2
1.5
1
0.5
TOC
DO
TANG
(thang sa
2.09
0.26
L___.J
.

r
TRUdNG DUNO
TIN DUNG
u so vdi thang
trude-
%)
2.26
1.64
1.70
Thang
1
Thang 2 Thang 3 Thang 4 Thang 5
ngudi giri tiln mudn cd lai suat
tiet kiem cao, do chua that tin vao
viec kilm che tdc dp tang gia tieu
dung. Thdi gian qua gia vang
tang, thi trudng bat dong san am

ndng, Cd nguyen nhan do
Ngan hang Nha nude that chat
chinh sach tiln te trong quy 1,
chua kip thdi ndi long, khi tir quy
II,
dien bien kinh te' vi md da
chuyin
bien tich cue. Van dl
ndng nha't la lam phat da ha nhiet.
Van dl ndng
thii
hai la nhap sieu,
thi thang 5 da giam xudng. Thu
chi ngan sach da cd bude chuyen
bien tich
cue,
can can thanh toan
tdng the cung dupe cai thien mot
budc,
khi lupng ngoai te vao Viet
Nam tir cac ngudn dat ket qua kha
va cd tin hieu kha quan (vdn dau
tu
true
tie'p
nude
ngoai thuc hien
udc dat 4,5 ty USD, tang 7,1% so
vdi ciing ky nam trude; ngudn vdn
hd trp phat trien chinh thiic giai

ngan dat tren 1/3 ke hoach nam;
ngudn vdn dau tu gian tiep vao
nhilu hon ra the hien d viec tang
ty le giao dich mua rdng lien tuc
trong nhilu tuan cua nha dau tu
nude
ngoai trdn thi trudng chung
khoan; lupng
kilu
hdi
klia
quan;
tien thu
dupe
tir khach qudc te de'n
Viet Nam tang, khi lupng khach
de'n tang 32,2% so vdi ciing ky
nam trude).
Tai nhien, "vao 10, ra 12" la
dinh hudng, bdi vdi
miic
nay, can
phai cd mot thdi gian nhat dinh
mdi cd the dat
dupe
muc tieu. De
thuc hien
dupe
dinh hudng nay,
can phai thue hien tdt cac giai

phap sau day.
Trude
hit,
phai kilm che dupe
tdc dp tang gia tieu
diing,
bdi hai
mat. Mot mat, gia tieu dung sau 5
thang da tang 4,55%,
tiic
la sau
42%
thdi gian da bang 56,9% tdc
dp tang gia tieu diing theo muc tieu
ca nam mdi dieu chinh (cdn theo
muc tieu cu da bang 65%), cao gap
doi tdc dp tang 2,12%
ciia
cung ky
nam ngoai; hon niia thang 3 - thang
5 tang thap cd phan quan trpng do
gia luong thuc giam 3 thang
bin,
gia thuc pham giam va tang thap;
binh quan 5 thang nam nay so vdi
ciing ky nam trude, gia tieu dung
da tang tdi 8,76%; gia
tidu
dung
thudng tang thap vao giiia nam va

tang cao vao cudi nam; trong khi
gia the gidi tang (the hien d cho so
vdi ciing ky nam
trude,
gia xuat
khau tang
8,1%,
gia nhap khau cdn
tang cao hon). Mat khac, chi khi
gia
tidu
dung dupe kilm che, long
tm vao ddng tiln qudc gia dupe
cung cd mot each viing chac, kinh
te vi md tdt len, thi ngudi cd tiln se
yen tam hon dl ddn giri
tiln vao he thdng
ngan hang.
N^
_^_
Thii
hai, Viet Nam hien cd
qua nhieu ngan hang va quy md
ciia
nhilu ngan hang cdn qua
nhd. Viet Nam hien cd 5 ngan
hang thuong mai nha nude, 2
ngan hang chinh sach, 37 ngan
hang thuong mai cd phan, 50
ngan hang nude ngoai, 5 ngan

hang lien doanh, 22 cong ty tai
chinh. Theo Nghi dinh cua Chinh
phii,
cac ngan hang phai cd vdn
dilu le tdi thieu
tit
3.000 ty ddng
trd len vao cudi nam nay. Hien
cdn khoang 20 ngan hang thuong
mai nam trong dien nay va thdi
ban khong cdn bao
lau
(Malaysia
cd quy mo GDP
Idn
ga'p 2 lan
Viet Nam, nhung chi cd 43 ngan
hang, trong dd
21
ngan hang Hdi
giao hoat ddng phi
Ipi
nhuan- coi
nhu khong cd- thuc chat chi cdn
22 ngan hang thuong mai. Thai
Lan cd GDP cao gap 2,5 lan Viet
Nam, nhung chi cd 32 ngan hang,
trong dd trong
nude
cd mot nira).

Thir ba, Ngan hang Nha
nude
can sir dung cac cdng cu dieu tiet
tien te cua minh thong qua
nghiep vu thi trudng md de bom
tien hd trp,
sir
dung nghiep vu tai
cap vdn de hd trp cho viec giam
lai suat, dilu hanh mat bang lai
suat chu dao nhu lai suat tai
cSip
vdn, lai suat chiet khau. Tuy
nhien, can can trpng vl khdi
lupng tiln bom ra, thdi gian lau
hay mau, viec day du, kip thdi de
tranh
gay
ra lam phat. Ciing can
luu y, cac ngan hang nhd se cang
gap khd khan do cd ra't it giay td
cd gia de vay sd tiln nay •
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12X6)
- KY 4 6
20!
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