BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU VÀ PHÁT TRIỂN BỀN VỮNG WEEK 4 (1 Oct 2010) pdf

Cn Bộ Ging Dy: TS. V LÊ PH
Bộ Môn Qun L Môi Trưng – Khoa Môi Trưng
TRƯNG ĐI HC BCH KHOA Tp.HCM

BIN ĐI KH
HU V PHT
TRIN BN
VNG
WEEK 4 (1 Oct 2010)
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Tc đng ca con ngưi đn ti nguyên nưc & vn
đ qun l TNN (IPCC, 2007)
BĐKH – Nưc – Lương Thc
Human society is very dependent on water
Water is very dependent on climate
Climate might change
Humans, Water and Climate Change
Why worry about climate and water
Van Deursen
nh hưng ca BĐKH đn ti nguyên nưc ti cc khu vc
(IPCC, 2007)
T C ĐNG CA BĐKH ĐN TNN TI S KHU VC
KHU VC
T C ĐNG
Châu 
ng  u  i i t  i nguy  gia 
 p  c TNN do  u  n  c t i , Nam,
Trung va , c ti c   c sông
 n.
Gia   c ôp t.
Châu Phi

75-220 u  i  u  c  m ng o 
2020
M Latin
ng 7-77 u  i p  c vê n  c o
2020
m ng y va n cung  p  c i  u
 ng
Suy m  t  ng  c do gia  p t van
n
Ngun: UNFCCC, 2007
D bo lưng mưa ti cc khu vc
       c
(Aerts & Droogers, 2004)
Khu  c khan  m
 c do c ng

HN
HN
NGP
LT
HAI
THI
CC
CA T I
NGUYÊN
NƯC
  
  T
Tác Động của BĐKH đn Ti Nguyên Nưc
Nguồn: IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Vulnerability. Contribution of Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Tác Động của BĐKH đn Ti Nguyên Nưc
Nguồn: IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Tác Động của BĐKH đn Ti Nguyên Nưc
Tác Động của BĐKH đn Ti Nguyên ĐB
Nguồn: IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Tác Động của BĐKH đn Ti Nguyên ĐB
Nguồn: IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
BĐKH v An Ninh Lương Thc Ton Cu
 n
TNN 
  u:
  
  
  i;
    c
38% (2025);
   
m 2-3%
T C ĐNG CA BĐKH ĐN QUI HOCH ĐÔ TH
  , không gian xanh
  
  c

 
   
 c
CC THNH PH VNG ĐI B
Source: Fuchs, 2010
Source: WWF, nd
CC THNH PH VNG ĐI B
Source: Nicholls, et al., 2008
Source: WWF (nd). Mega-stress for Mega-Cities: A Climate Vulnerability
Ranking of Major Coastal Cities in Asia
CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate Risk – Disaster - Vulnerability
Thnh Ph H Ch Minh: The Number 10
 ONE OF THE TOP 10 VIETNAM’S CITIES AFFECTED
BY SEA LEVEL RISE
(Carew-Reid, 2007 & ADB, 2008)
 ONE OF THE TOP 10 PORT CITIES WHICH ARE
HIGHLY EXPOSURE AND VULNERABLE TO CC
(Nicholls et al., 2008)
 ONE OF THE TOP 10 ASIAN COASTAL CITIES WHICH
ARE AT RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING
(WWF, 2009 & Fuchs, 2010)
Qu Trnh Đô Th Ha
1700-1950
0.5 M. Inhab.
1950-1975
2 M. Inhab.
1975-2005
8 M. Inhab.
2020

12 M. Inhab.
New urbanized areas are being developed on lowland region
21
Thit hi do thiên tai ti TPHCM
Estimation of lost due to natural
disasters within 10 years (USD) in HCMC
(common hazard: whirlwind, storm, flood,
landslide, etc)
Năm Thit hi
1997 2,360,471
1998 142,471
1999 119,118
2000 145,000
2001 175,353
2002 605,176
2003 375,235
2004 163,035
2005 427,682
2006 5,638,166
2007 725,465
Total 11,909,009
Carew-Reid, 2007
22
Tc đng ca BĐKH đn Thnh Ph H Ch Minh
Tc đng chnh:
Hn hán, ngp lt, thiu
nưc ngt v xâm nhp
mn
Upstream flood
Upstream flood

Upstream flood
Tidal effect and sea level rise
Nhit Đ v S Gia Tăng Mc Nưc Bin
Nhiệt độ tối đa mùa mưa ở TP Hồ Chí Minh
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
36.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Năm
Nh. độ (oC)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
Năng lượng tiêu thụ (GWh)
Rainfall increasing in
HCM City is strongly
correlated to
Temperature and could
be explained by theory
of Heat Island Effect.
Measures from
satellite TOPEX for

period 1982 - 2006
maximal sea level had
raised about 20cm.
Max Temperature and consumed energy in HCM city
Max Temperature oC
Consumed energy GWh
Cc Tc Đng ca BĐKH Đ Đưc Nhn Dng
Rainfall concentrates
in short time whenever
annual precipitation
has tendency to
decrease
Daily maximal rainfall
in Tan Son Hoa station
raises in recent years.
Maximal tidal level in
Vung Tau gauging
station
25
Cc Khu Vc Ngp Lt Vo Năm 2050