ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES docx

ENERGY
T
ECHNOLO
GY
P
ERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &
Strateg
ies
to 2050
2
o
1
o
Please note that
this PDF is subject to
specific restrictions that
limit its use and distribution.
The terms and conditions
are available online at
www.iea.org/Textbase/
about/copyright.asp
-:HSTCQE=U]Z^\]:
(61 2010 14 1 P1)
978-92-64-08597-8 €100
To meet the challenges of energy security and climate change as well as the
growing energy needs of the developing world, a global energy technology
revolution is essential. This was the key message of the 2008 edition of Energy
Technology Perspectives (ETP). But is this fundamental transformation happening?
What are the key technologies that can play a role? What are the costs and

benefits? And what policies do we need?
The new ETP 2010 explores such questions and many others, drawing on the extensive
expertise of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and its energy technology network.
ETP 2010 presents updated scenarios from the present to 2050 that show which
new technologies will be most important in key sectors and in different regions of
the world. It highlights the importance of finance to achieve change, examines the
implications of the scenarios for energy security and looks at how to accelerate the
deployment of low-carbon technologies in major developing countries. It presents
roadmaps and transition pathways for spurring deployment of the most important
clean technologies and for overcoming existing barriers.
With extensive data, projections and analysis, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
provides decision makers with the detailed information and insights needed to
accelerate the switch to a more secure, low-carbon energy future.
ENERGY
T
ECHNOLOGY
P
ERSPECTIVES
Scenarios & Strategies to 2050
2
o
1
0
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050

2
o
1
o
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in
November 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member
countries on sound energy policy.
The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among 28 advanced
economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agency aims to:
n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection
in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute
to climate change.
n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of
energy data.
n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
effi ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement
and dialogue with non-member countries, industry,
international organisations and other stakeholders.
IEA member countries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada

Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
The European Commission
also participates in
the work of the IEA.
Please note that this publication
is subject to speci c restrictions
that limit its use and distribution.

The terms and conditions are available
online at
www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp
© OECD/IEA, 2010
International Energy Agency
9 rue de la Fédération
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
3
FOREWORD
The previous edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), published in summer
2008, called for an energy technology revolution to tackle the undesirable
consequences of our current patterns of energy supply and use. It also highlighted
that, if we did not alter course, concerns about energy security and the threat of
dangerous climate change would only become much worse. So what – if any –
progress have we made over the last two years in meeting these challenges?
At first sight, it may seem as though not much has changed. Countries are still
discussing what a long-term climate change framework should look like, while
greenhouse-gas emissions go on rising. Concerns about energy security are still
with us and oil prices remain high and prone to further volatility.
However, I believe that in fact we may be witnessing the early signs of the historic
transition that we so badly need: high oil prices and the global financial crisis may
have changed the demand structure for energy. We may indeed see an “oil-less
recovery” in OECD countries, in which our economies return to positive growth
without a notable pick-up in oil demand. We are also seeing some promising signs
of accelerated deployment for a number of important low-carbon technologies,
particularly in renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced vehicle
technologies. Funding for clean energy research, development and demonstration
is increasing again after more than two decades of decline and stagnation, and
many countries have committed to spend even more in the future.
But we still have formidable challenges before us. Tackling climate change and

enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system
leading to a new age of electrification. We need to break the historic link between
CO
2
emissions and economic output; and do this not just for a few years, but from
now on. ETP 2010 shows how this can be achieved. It identifies the technologies
that we require and the policies that we will need to stimulate the necessary
investment. Importantly, it also clearly demonstrates the benefits in terms not only
of reduced CO
2
emissions, but also of fossil fuel savings.
We also need to think about what a low-carbon energy mix will mean for
comprehensive energy security. On the one hand, reduced dependence on
imported fossil fuels and broader development of alternative energy sources can
help alleviate some of the current concerns around security of supply for these fuels.
Yet as the demand for decarbonised electricity and also for biofuels increases, so
new challenges will no doubt emerge requiring innovative policies to ensure that
we have the affordable and reliable energy supplies that we need.
ETP 2010 also shows how efforts to tackle climate change will need to include all
major economies and so require truly global co-operation. We at the IEA acutely
recognise this challenge, with our member states now representing a decreasing
share of the world’s energy demand, production and
CO
2
emissions. In the face of
this, the IEA and its members must create ever stronger ties with key non-member
countries such as China, India, Russia and many other countries. The newly
proposed international low-carbon energy technology platform is one way in which
we are doing this. The platform, which was endorsed by the IEA Ministerial meeting
©OECD/IEA, 2010

4
FOREWORD
in October 2009, will bring together policy makers, business representatives and
technology experts to discuss how best to encourage the spread of clean energy
technologies and, we hope, will usher in a new era of broader, heightened and
proactive collaboration.
By working together we can and must meet the global energy challenges we now
face. There simply is no alternative. ETP 2010 shows us what we have to do. Let us
make that revolutionary future a reality together.
This publication has been produced under my authority as Executive Director of the
IEA. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of individual
IEA member countries.
Nobuo Tanaka
Executive Director
©OECD/IEA, 2010
5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This publication was prepared by the International Energy Agency’s Directorate of
Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology, under the leadership of Bo Diczfalusy,
and in co-operation with other divisions of the Agency. Peter Taylor, Head of the
Energy Technology Policy Division, was the project manager and had overall
responsibility for the design and implementation of the study. The other main
authors were Pierpaolo Cazzola, François Cuenot, Joana Chiavari, David Elzinga,
Lew Fulton, Ben Gibson, Tom Kerr, Steven Lee, Uwe Remme, Cecilia Tam, Michael
Taylor, Paul Tepes and Nathalie Trudeau.
Many other IEA colleagues have provided important contributions, in particular
Brendan Beck, Barbara Buchner (now with the Climate Policy Initiative), Keith
Burnard, Kat Cheung, Hugo Chandler, Zuzana Dobrotkova, Paolo Frankl, Dagmar
Graczyk, Yuichi Ikeda, Andrea Nour, Sara Pasquier, Cédric Philibert, Carrie
Pottinger, Jonathan Sinton and Jayen Veerapen. Helpful advice and support were

also received from Sun Joo Ahn, Richard Baron, Marco Baroni, Fatih Birol, Jean-
Yves Garnier, Didier Houssin, Julie Jiang, Nigel Jollands, Samantha Ölz, Roberta
Quadrelli and Sylvie Stephan. Martin Taylor of the Organisation for Economic
Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency was a main author of the nuclear
roadmap. The cement roadmap was jointly authored with the World Business
Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Cement Sustainability Initiative.
A number of external experts have contributed significantly to different parts of
the publication. Heather Haydock (AEA Technology) helped co-ordinate the study
and contributed to the chapter on policies to accelerate a low-carbon technology
transition. Bloomberg New Energy Finance contributed to the finance chapter.
Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez (Human Dimensions Research Associates) helped write
the chapter on technology choices and behaviour. Modelling and other support for
the United States and OECD Europe chapters was provided respectively by Tom
Alfstad (US Department of Energy [US DOE] Brookhaven National Laboratory),
and Markus Blesl and Tom Kober (University of Stuttgart). Contributors to the China
chapter included Wenying Chen (Tsinghua University), Libo Wu (Fudan University)
and Yufeng Yang (Energy Research Institute), and their colleagues.
The IEA is grateful for the contribution of the India Energy Technology Perspectives
Expert Group, chaired by S.M. Dhiman, Member (Planning), Central Electricity
Authority; I.C.P. Keshari, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Power, chairman of the
power sub-group; Dr. Ajay Mathur, Director General, Bureau of Energy Efficiency,
chairman of the buildings sub-group; V. Raghuraman, Chief Adviser, Jaguar
Overseas Ltd, chairman of the industry sub-group; Dilip Chenoy, Director General,
SIAM, chairman of the transportation sub-group, as well as all participants at the
Joint IEA-India Workshop on Regional Analysis of India who provided valuable
comments and feedback on the India analysis.
Gillian Balitrand, Annette Hardcastle, Catherine Smith and Colette Davidson
helped to prepare the manuscript. Rob Wright (Wrighthand Ltd) carried editorial
responsibility.
©OECD/IEA, 2010

6
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Production assistance was provided by the IEA Communication and Information
Office: Jane Barbière, Madeleine Barry, Viviane Consoli, Muriel Custodio,
Rebecca Gaghen, Delphine Grandrieux, Corinne Hayworth, Bertrand Sadin
and Marilyn Smith helped to improve and clarify content and managed the layout
and graphic design.
Special thanks go to Pieter Boot and Dolf Gielen, former IEA colleagues, for their
input and support during the early stages of the project and later expert review.
The work was guided by the members of the IEA Committee on Energy Research
and Technology (CERT) who helped to improve substantially the policy relevance
of this document. The Standing-Group on Long-Term Co-operation, the Working
Party on Energy End-Use Technologies, the Working Party on Renewable Energy
Technologies and the Working Party on Fossil Fuels also provided helpful inputs
and suggestions.
IEA Implementing Agreements
The technology analysis in this book draws extensively upon the unique IEA
international network for collaboration on energy technology. Numerous experts
from many of the 42 IEA Implementing Agreements have contributed with data,
suggestions and expert review. Some of these experts are listed below:
Advanced Transport Materials
Stephen Hsu
Demand Side Management
Hans Nilsson
Seppo Kärkkäinen
District Heating and Cooling
Robin Wiltshire
Efficient Electrical Equipment
Hans-Paul Siderius
Electricity Networks Analysis, Research and Development

Lars Audun Fodstad
Rainer Bacher
John Baker
Otto Bernsen
Minnesh Bipath
Michele DeNigris
Stig Goethe
Eric Lightner
Ian Welch
Energy Conservation through Energy Storage
Andreas Hauer
Astrid Wille
©OECD/IEA, 2010
7
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Heat Pumping Technologies
Monica Axell
Jerry Groff
Roger Nordman
Shogo Tokura
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technologies and Programmes
Urs Muntwyler
Martijn Van Walwijk
High-Temperature Superconductivity
Guy Deutscher
Hydrogen
Mary-Rose de Valladares
IEA Clean Coal Centre
Paul Baruya
Colin Henderson

John Kessels
John Topper
IEA Greenhouse Gas RD Programme
John Davison
Renewable Energy Technology Deployment
Ryan Katofsky
Kristian Petrick
Matthew Stanberry
Solar Heating and Cooling
Esther Rojas
Wind Energy Systems
Hannele Holttinen
Expert reviewers
A large number of reviewers provided valuable feedback and input to the analysis
presented in this book:
Rosemary Albinson, Castrol, United Kingdom; Roy Antink, Skanska AB, Sweden;
Robert Arnot, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Canada; Paul Arwas,
independent consultant, United Kingdom; Zafer Ates, Permanent Delegation of
Turkey to the OECD, France; Quan Bai, Energy Research Institute (ERI), China;
Francoise Bartiaux, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium; Matthew Bateson,
WBCSD, Switzerland; Barbara Bauman Tyran, Electric Power Research Institute
(EPRI), United States; Georg Bäuml, Volkswagen, Germany; Chris Bayliss,
International Aluminium Institute (IAI), United Kingdom; Morgan Bazilian, United
Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Austria; David Beauvais,
NRCan, Canada; Martina Beitke, European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC),
©OECD/IEA, 2010
8
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Belgium; Ron Benioff, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), United States;
Kamel Bennaceur, Schlumberger, France; Alissa Boardley, Environment Canada,

Canada; Inger Pihl Byriel, Energinet, Denmark; Terry Carrington, Department
of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), United Kingdom; Satish Chander, The
Fertiliser Association of India, India; Ian Christmas, Worldsteel, Belgium; Robert
Clover, HSBC, United Kingdom; Jonathan Coony, World Bank, United States;
Karlynn Cory, NREL, United States; Sean Cuthbert, Lloyd’s Register Group Services
Ltd., United Kingdom; Pradeep Kumar Dadhich, The Energy and Resources Institute
(TERI), India; Francois Dassa, EDF, France; Pedros Dias, European Solar Thermal
Industry Federation, Belgium; Carmen Difiglio, US DOE, United States; Rick Duke,
US DOE, United States; George Eads, Consultant, United States; Andrew Eil,
International Finance Corporation (IFC), United States; Eric J. ten Elshof, Ministry of
Economic Affairs, the Netherlands; Craig Erdrich, US DOE, United States; Robert
Falzon, Goldman Sachs, United Kingdom; Nicolas Fichaux, European Wind Energy
Association, Belgium; Michel Folliet, IFC, United States; Timothy Foxon, University
of Leeds, United Kingdom; Jim Fritz, UTC, United States; Eamon Geraghty,
International Building Materials Group (CRH), Ireland; Doug Grano, United States
Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), United States; Sallie Greenberg, Illinois
State Geological Survey, United States; Jake Handelsman, American Forest and
Paper Association (AF&PA), United States; Atsushi Hatano, Nissan, Japan; Ruth
Herbert, DECC, United Kingdom; Andrew Higham, United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat, Germany; Neil Hirst,
Imperial College, United Kingdom; Volker Hoenig, VDZ, Germany; Bazmi Husain,
ABB, Switzerland; Tomoya Ichimura, New Energy and Industrial Technology
Development Organization, Japan; Kejun Jiang, ERI, China; Nakhun Jung,
Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea; Birte Holst Jorgensen, Technical University
of Denmark, Denmark; Mitsuru Kaihori, Japan Paper Association, Japan; Larry
Kavanagh, American Iron and Steel Institute, United States; Ron Knapp, IAI, United
Kingdom; Steve Kidd, World Nuclear Association, United Kingdom; Joris Knigge,
Enexis, Netherlands; Bernhard Kohl, Eurofer, Belgium; Joachim Krüger, CEFIC,
Belgium; Martyna Kurcz-Jenn, Alstom, Belgium; Skip Laitner, American Council
for an Energy-Efficient Economy, United States; Paul Lansbergen, Forest Products

Association of Canada, Canada; Erin Laws, Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Authority (EECA), New Zealand; Jean Le Cocguic, OECD, France; Henry Lee,
Harvard University, United States; Yongpil Lee, Ministry of Knowledge Economy,
Korea; Xavier Leflaive, OECD, France; Alan Meier, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory,
United States; Maria Mendiluce, WBCSD, Switzerland; Gilles Mercier, NRCan,
Canada; Andy Miller, US EPA; United States; Marco Mensink, Confederation of
European Paper Industries, Belgium; Motomi Miyashita, Japan Gas Association,
Japan; Fuad Mohamed Siala, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries,
Austria; Danielle H. Monosson, US State Department, United States; David Mora,
University of Flensburg, Denmark; Ben Muirhead, International Fertilizer Industry
Association (IFA), France; Denise Mulholland, US EPA, United States; S. Nand,
The Fertiliser Association of India, India; Nakano Naokazu, Japan Iron and Steel
Federation, Japan; Thomas Nowak, European Heat Pump Association, Belgium;
Nils-Olof Nylund, VTT, Finland; Stathis Peteves, European Commission Joint
Research Centre, the Netherlands; Dirk Pilat, OECD, France; Sean Plasynski, US
DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory, United States; Thomas Pregger,
German Aerospace Center, Germany; Shuba V. Raghavan, Center for Study of
©OECD/IEA, 2010
9
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), India; Wayne Richardson, independent
consultant, Canada; Nick Robins, HSBC, United Kingdom; Hans-Holger Rogner,
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna; Sea Rotmann, EECA, New
Zealand; Claes Rytoft, ABB, Switzerland; Steve Sawyer, Global Wind Energy Council,
Belgium; Laurent Schmitt, Alstom, France; Elizabeth Shove, Lancaster University,
United Kingdom; William Sissions, UTC, United States; Rebecca Smith-Kevern, US
DOE, United States; Erik Kjær Soerensen, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Denmark; Ravi
Srivastava, EPA, United States; Garry Staunton, Carbon Trust, United Kingdom;
Helga Stenseth, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; Paul Stern, National Academy
of Sciences, United States; Didier Stevens, Toyota, Europe; Gary Stiegel, US DOE-

NETL, United States; Ulrik Stridbæk, Dong Energy, Denmark; Hiroyuki Takahashi,
Tokyo Electric Power Company Inc. (TEPCO), Japan; Wanna Tanunchaiwatana,
UNFCCC Secretariat, Germany; Martin Taylor, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency,
France; Shogo Tokura, Heat Pump and Thermal Storage Center for Japan,
Japan; Ferenc L. Toth, IAEA, Vienna; Franz Trieb, German Aerospace Center,
Germany; Caroline Twigg, WBCSD Cement Sustainability Initiative, Switzerland;
Alice Tyne, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, United Kingdom; Fridtjof Unander,
Research Council of Norway, Norway; Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European
University, Hungary; Rob van der Meer, Heidelberg Cement, Netherlands; Charles
Vlek, University of Groningen, Netherlands; Michael Wang, Argonne National
Laboratory, United States; Shannon Wang, REN21 Secretariat, France; Yanjia
Wang, Tsinghua University, China; Masaaki Watanabe, TEPCO, Japan; Wolfgang
Weber, BASF, Germany; Anthony White, B W Energy, United Kingdom; Michael
Whitfield, Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Australia; Mark Winskel,
University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Bartosz Wojszczyk, General Electric,
United States; Jacqueline Wong, US DOE, United States; Casey Zils, European
Climate Exchange, United Kingdom.
Workshops
A number of workshops and meetings were held in the framework of this study
and the development of the technology roadmaps. The workshop participants have
contributed valuable new insights, data and feedback for this analysis:
Enhancing International Technology Collaboration, 12-13 November 2008, 
Washington, DC;
Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Roadmap Meeting, 26-27 January 2009, 
Paris;
CCS Roadmap Meeting – Financing, Legal & Regulatory and Public Awareness 
Issues, 23 February 2009, Paris;
Expert Review of Industry Scenarios, 9-10 February 2009, Paris; 
The Global R&D Portfolio – Strategies to Accelerate Technology Development, 
28-29 April 2009, Paris;

Energy Technology Transition Project Launch Workshop, 13-14 June 2009, 
Beijing;
©OECD/IEA, 2010
10
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First IEA-Indian ETP Expert Group Workshop, 20 October 2009, Delhi; 
From Roadmaps to Implementation, 2-3 November 2009, Paris; 
Workshop on Regional Analysis for the Energy Technology Perspectives 2010, 
19 January 2010, Beijing;
Energy Technology Roadmap Workshop, 20 January 2010, Beijing; 
Joint IEA-India Workshop on Regional Analysis of India in the Energy Technology 
Perspective 2010, 29 January 2010, New Delhi;
Chief Technology Officer Roundtable, 2 February, 2010; 
Energy Efficient and Low-Carbon Buildings: Heating and Cooling. Workshops were 
held on heat pumps (9 November, 2009); thermal energy storage (9 December,
2009); solar thermal (2 February, 2010); CHP (3 February, 2010) and policy and
finance issues (6-7 May, 2010).
This study has been supported by voluntary contributions and in-kind support from
many IEA governments, including Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Japan,
the Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible
for any opinions or judgements contained in this study. Any errors and omissions
are solely the responsibility of the IEA.
Comments and questions are welcome and should be
addressed to:
Peter Taylor
Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
9, Rue de la Fédération
75739 Paris Cedex 15

France
Email:
©OECD/IEA, 2010
©OECD/IEA, 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART 1
TECHNOLOGY AND
THE GLOBAL ENERGY ECONOMY TO 2050
PART 2
THE TRANSITION
FROM PRESENT TO 2050
©OECD/IEA, 2010
Introduction
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

17

Overview of scenarios
Electricity generation
Electricity networks
Industry
Buildings
Transport
OECD Europe
United States
China
India
Policies to accelerate a low-carbon technology transition
Technology roadmaps
Finance
Accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon technologies in emerging economies
Technology choices and behaviour
Environmental co-impacts of emerging energy technologies
Annexes
1
2
©OECD/IEA, 2010
14
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 5
Table of contents 11
List of fi gures 25
List of tables 36
List of boxes 42

Executive summary 45

Chapter
Introduction 61
The political context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
The purpose and scope of this study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
PART

Technology and the Global Energy Economy to 2050
Chapter
Overview of scenarios 67
Scenario characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Energy and CO
2
emission trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Technologies for reducing CO
2
emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Energy effi ciency 77
Power sector 79
Fuel switching in end-use sectors 80
Carbon capture and storage 81
Investment costs and fuel savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Regional and country-level trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Sectoral trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Energy trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Coal 91
Liquid fuel 92
Natural gas 94
1

1
2
©OECD/IEA, 2010
15
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Electricity 96
Biomass 96
Going beyond the BLUE scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Chapter
Electricity generation 101
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Recent trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Generation mix by fuel 103
Effi ciency of electricity generation 104
CO
2
emissions 105
Future scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Baseline scenario 106
BLUE Map scenario 107
BLUE scenario variants 111
Fossil fuel power plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Overview 113
Technology status and prospects 115
Costs 118
Carbon capture and storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Overview 119
Technology status and prospects 120
Costs 123
Renewable energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Overview 124
Technology status and prospects 126
Costs 133
Nuclear power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Overview 134
Technology status and prospects 136
Costs 138
Chapter
Electricity networks 141
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
History of the grid 142
3
4
©OECD/IEA, 2010
16
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Electricity demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Electricity demand by region 143
Electricity demand by sector 144
Demand profi les 145
Electricity generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Power system fl exibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Electricity network losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Vision for the grid of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Smart grid technology 151
Benefi ts of smart grids 152
Smart grid CO
2
emissions reduction 153
Benefi ts for developing countries 154

Storage technology 154
Analysis of electricity storage needs 155
How much does the grid of the future cost? 156
Barriers to electricity grid investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
Priorities for next steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
Regional assessment of grid needs 157
Technology research, development and demonstration (RD&D) needs 158
Markets 158
Regulatory and policy needs 159
Public education and public engagement 159
Human resources 159
Chapter
Industry 161
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
Industrial energy use and CO
2
emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
Energy and CO
2
scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Scenario assumptions 166
Scenario results 167
Carbon capture and storage 172
Industrial electrifi cation 173
Recycling 174
Sectoral results 175
5
©OECD/IEA, 2010
17
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Iron and steel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
Energy effi ciency and CO
2
reduction potentials 176
Scenario results 177
Technology options 179
Investment costs 181
Cement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Energy effi ciency and CO
2
reduction potentials 181
Scenario results 182
Technology options 183
Investment costs 185
Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Energy effi ciency and CO
2
reduction potentials 185
Scenario results 186
Technology options 187
Investment costs 189
Pulp and paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Energy effi ciency and CO
2
reduction potentials 190
Scenario results 191
Technology options 192
Investment costs 193
Aluminium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
Energy effi ciency and CO

2
reduction potentials 194
Scenario results 195
Technology options 196
Investment costs 197
Industry-wide regional implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
Investment costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199
Policy changes needed to support technology transition
in industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
From sectoral agreements to global emissions trading 201
Improving industrial data coverage should be a priority 202
Pathway to the next Industrial Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
Chapter
Buildings 205
Overview of the residential and service sectors . . . . . . . . . . 206
Building stock turnover and heating and cooling 207
6
©OECD/IEA, 2010
18
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Current building stock and energy consumption . . . . . . . . . 207
Households: the residential building stock and its characteristics 207
The service sector building stock 210
Global trends in buildings sector energy consumption . . . . 211
Residential sector 211
The service sector 212
Buildings sector CO
2
emissions 213
Demand drivers in the scenario analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

The Baseline scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Energy consumption by fuel and by sector 215
Energy consumption and CO
2
emissions by region and by sector 216
The BLUE Map scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
Energy consumption in the BLUE Map scenario 220
Investment requirements in the BLUE Map scenario 227
BLUE scenario variants 229
Technology options in the BLUE Map scenario . . . . . . . . . . 230
The building envelope and good design 231
Heat pumps for heating and cooling 235
Combined heat and power in buildings 241
Solar thermal heating and cooling 246
Lighting and appliances 250
Chapter
Transport 255
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256
Energy effi ciency by mode 260
Transport scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
Scenario results 264
Transport technologies and policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278
Fuels 278
Light-duty vehicles 281
Advanced technology vehicles 282
Trucking and rail freight 288
Aviation 290
Shipping 293
7
©OECD/IEA, 2010

19
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter
OECD Europe 297
Regional description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
Recent trends in energy and CO
2
emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
Energy production and supply 299
Energy consumption 301
End-use effi ciency improvement 302
Carbon dioxide emissions 302
Overall energy policy framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
Current status of energy policies and climate change initiatives 303
Overview of scenarios and CO
2
abatement options . . . . . . . 307
Energy and CO
2
emission scenarios 308
Carbon dioxide abatement options 309
Sectoral results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
Power sector 310
Industry sector 316
Buildings sector 320
Transport sector 326
Investment needs in the BLUE Map scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
Transition to a low-carbon energy future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
Future technology priorities 332
Future policy priorities 334

Chapter
United States 337
Regional description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338
Recent trends in energy and CO
2
emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338
Energy production and supply 339
Energy consumption 340
End-use effi ciency improvement 341
Carbon dioxide emissions 341
Overall energy policy framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
Current status of energy policies and climate change initiatives 343
Overview of scenarios and CO
2
abatement options . . . . . . . 345
8
9
©OECD/IEA, 2010
20
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Energy and CO
2
emission scenarios 345
Carbon dioxide abatement options 346
Sectoral results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
Power sector 347
Industry sector 355
Buildings sector 358
Transport sector 363
Investment needs in the BLUE Map scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . 368

Transition to a low-carbon energy future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
Future technology priorities 369
Future policy priorities 370
Chapter
China 373
Regional description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374
Recent trends in energy and CO
2
emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374
Energy production and supply 375
Energy consumption 377
End-use effi ciency improvement 378
Carbon dioxide emissions 378
Overall energy policy framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378
Current status of energy policies and climate change initiatives 380
Overview of scenarios and CO
2
abatement options . . . . . . . 381
Energy and CO
2
emission scenarios 382
Carbon dioxide abatement options 383
Sectoral results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
Power sector 384
Industry sector 391
Buildings sector 397
Transport sector 402
Investment needs in the BLUE Map scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . 409
Transition to a low-carbon energy future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
Future technology and policy priorities 411

10
©OECD/IEA, 2010
21
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter
India 415
Regional description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
Recent trends in energy and CO
2
emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417
Energy production and supply 417
Energy consumption 419
End-use effi ciency improvement 420
Carbon dioxide emissions 421
Overall energy policy framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
Current status of energy policies and climate change initiatives 422
Overview of scenarios and CO
2
abatement options . . . . . . . 424
Energy and CO
2
emission scenarios 425
Carbon dioxide abatement options 426
Sectoral results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
Power sector 427
Industry sector 433
Buildings sector 438
Transport sector 444
Investment needs in the BLUE Map scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . 450
Transition to a low-carbon energy future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452

PART

The Transition from Present to 2050
Chapter
Policies to accelerate a low-carbon technology
transition 459
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460
The need for energy technology policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 463
Tailoring policies to the stage of technology development 464
Enabling actions: addressing the business and human aspects
of a low-carbon technology revolution 469
Energy technology research, development and demonstration . . 476
Current public-sector low-carbon RD&D expenditure 476
11
2
12
©OECD/IEA, 2010
22
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Private-sector RD&D spending 478
Assessing the gap: global low-carbon energy technology
RD&D needs 479
Accelerating energy technology RD&D 481
Chapter
Technology roadmaps 489
A portfolio of technologies is needed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489
The role of roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492
Roadmaps 493
Roadmap summaries 493
Carbon capture and storage roadmap 494

Cement sector roadmap 498
Concentrating solar power roadmap 502
Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles roadmap 506
Nuclear energy roadmap 510
Solar photovoltaic power roadmap 514
Wind energy roadmap 518
Chapter
Finance 523
Investment needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524
Baseline scenario 524
BLUE Map scenario 525
Fuel savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 529
Current trends in fi nancing of low-carbon technologies and
global energy asset fi nance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 530
International fi nancing mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 535
Financing technology deployment in non-OECD countries 535
Financing options for an energy technology revolution . . . 544
Public fi nance mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550
Risk and returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 552
Cost of debt and equity 552
Risk versus return 552
Policy needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 555
13
14
©OECD/IEA, 2010
23
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A long-term integrated policy framework is needed 555
Financing renewables 557
Financing carbon capture and storage 559

Financing nuclear power 560
Financing low-carbon transport 562
Chapter
Accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon
technologies in emerging economies 565
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566
Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568
Non-OECD countries’ contribution to CO
2
emissions reduction in
the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios 568
Investment needs in emerging economies in the BLUE Map scenario 570
Diffusion of low-carbon technologies in emerging economies . . 571
Low-carbon technology fl ows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573
Trade fl ows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576
International fi nancial fl ows of low-carbon energy technologies . 577
Private fl ows 578
Offi cial fl ows 579
Flows under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 582
Summary of international fi nancial fl ows for diffusion of low-carbon
technologies 583
Enhancing technology diffusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 584
Strengthening low-carbon technological capacity in emerging
economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588
The way forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 592
Chapter
Technology choices and behaviour 595
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596
The potential contribution of behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596
Social and behavioural frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597

Extensions and alternatives to the techno-economic model 599
15
16
©OECD/IEA, 2010