(Luận văn) impacts of migration and migrant’s gender on children’s school enrollment and child work in viet nam
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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES
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HO CHIMINH CITY
THE HAGUE
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VIETNAM
THE NETHERLANDS
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VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS
PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
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IMPACTS OF MIGRATION AND MIGRANT’S GENDER
ON CHILDREN’S SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND CHILD
WORK IN VIET NAM
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VÕ THỊ THU HOÀI
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BY
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MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
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HO CHI MINH CITY, APRIL 2014
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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS
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INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES
THE HAGUE
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VIETNAM
THE NETHERLANDS
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VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS
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PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
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IMPACTS OF MIGRATION AND MIGRANT’S GENDER
ON CHILDREN’S SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND CHILD
WORK IN VIET NAM
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
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MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
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VÕ THỊ THU HOÀI
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By
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Dr. TRAN TIEN KHAI
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Academic Supervisor
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CERTIFICATION
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“I certify that the substance of this dissertation has not already been submitted for any
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degree and is not currently submitted for any other degree
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I certify that to the best of my knowledge and help received in preparing this dissertation
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and all source used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation”
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VO THI THU HOAI
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
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This thesis would have not been fulfilled without special assistances from some
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individuals, group, family who have contributed to my studying process.
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Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Dr.
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Tran Tien Khai who continuously support of my M.A thesis by his patience, enthusiasm
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and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me all the time to research and writing the
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thesis.
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Secondly, I would like to thank Dr. Truong Dang Thuy because of his dedicated
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support in research method during the time of this thesis. All of his help strongly to find
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the solution and improves this paper.
Besides, my sincere thanks also go to Dr. Nguyen Trong Hoai, Dr. Pham Khanh Nam
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who supervised and motivated the Class MDE 17 to finish the course on time.
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It is grateful to thank my classmates of MDE17 MDE18, VNP staffs for
stimulating discussions, for the fun time we had together.
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Last and not the least, I would like to express my grateful thank to my family
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who are always beside me, give me the birth and support me throughout my life
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April, 2014
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VO THI THU HOAI
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Email:
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ABSTRACT
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Accompany with development trend in over the world, migration flow plays important
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role in Vietnamese economy. It contributes to the significant income and raises the living
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standard for household in the country, specially, in rural areas. This paper tries to
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measure the impact of migration on children’s schooling enrollment and child work,
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addition to, determine how migrant’s gender matter in this impact. The context is applied
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in rural areas in Vietnam with the dataset of VHLSS 2010 by Instrument variable method
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to deal with the problem of endogeneity of migration. From the first stage of migrant
indicator, it indicates that instrument historical migration network and number of male
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adults will impact on migrant indicator significantly and these instruments are the strong
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instruments. The results show that the presence of migrant in the household will make the
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children take part in school more, at the same time make children work less. Besides, not
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like others researches, gender of migrant and time of migrant using in household don’t
have meaning with children’s welfare.
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Keywords: migration, migrant’s gender, children’s school enrollment, child work
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TABLE OF CONTENT
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ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... v
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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1
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1.1.
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Research Objectives ....................................................................................................... 3
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1.2.
Problem statement.......................................................................................................... 1
Research question ........................................................................................................... 3
1.4.
Research scope ................................................................................................................ 3
1.5.
Structure of the research ............................................................................................... 3
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1.3.
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CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................... 5
Definition of key concept ............................................................................................... 5
2.2.
Theoretical literature ..................................................................................................... 5
2.3.
Empirical literature...................................................................................................... 12
2.4.
Conceptual framework ................................................................................................ 16
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2.1.
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CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................ 18
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Endogeneity problem ................................................................................................... 18
3.2.
Endogeneity of migration ............................................................................................ 18
3.3.
Estimated equation ....................................................................................................... 20
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3.1.
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Validity of Instrument variable: .......................................................................... 20
3.3.2.
IVs methods ........................................................................................................... 20
3.3.3.
Estimated equation: .............................................................................................. 24
3.3.4.
Method to run IVs regression .............................................................................. 26
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Data ................................................................................................................................ 28
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3.3.1.
Source of data ........................................................................................................ 28
3.4.2.
Variables description and measurement: ........................................................... 29
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3.4.1.
CHAPTER 4: OVERVIEW OF MIGRATION IN CASE OF VIETNAM ........................... 36
Socio-economic setting and migration in Vietnam .................................................... 36
Internal migration ................................................................................................. 37
4.2.
Characteristics of migrant ........................................................................................... 39
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4.1.2.
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Migration aboard .................................................................................................. 36
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4.1.1.
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4.1.
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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4.2.1.
International migrant ........................................................................................... 39
4.2.2.
Internal migrant .................................................................................................... 44
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CHAPTER 5: EMPERICAL ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 46
Descriptions of variables.............................................................................................. 46
5.2.
Estimation results ......................................................................................................... 51
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5.1.
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Interpretation of results ............................................................................................... 57
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5.3.
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................... 63
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6.1. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 63
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6.2. Recommendations: ........................................................................................................... 64
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6.3. Limitations ........................................................................................................................ 65
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REFERENCE .............................................................................................................................. 67
APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................. 70
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(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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LIST OF FIGURES
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Figure 2.1: Conceptual framework about impact of migration and migrant’s gender on
children’s welfare.................................................................................................................. 1717
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Figure 3.1: Histogram of expenditure per capita a year .......................................................... 31
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Figure 3.2: Histogram of natural logarithm of expenditure per capita a year ........................ 31
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Figure 4.1: International migration trend from 2000 to 2010 (Department of oversea
database) ................................................................................................................................... 40
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Figure 4.2: Number of male and female international migrant from 2006-2010 (IOM).......... 41
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Figure 4.3: Main destinations of international migrant from 2000-2010 (IOM) ..................... 42
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Figure 4.4: Structure of international migration labor of Viet Nam from 2006-2010 (IOM,
2011).......................................................................................................................................... 43
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(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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LIST OF TABLES
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Table 3.1: Description and measurement of variables ............................................................. 32
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Table 5.1: T-test between household with non-migrant and household with migrant .............. 48
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Table 5.2: T-test between household with male migrant and household with female migrant . 50
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Table 5.3: Factors affecting migration indicator in the household (results of first stage
regression of Instrumental variables) ....................................................................................... 53
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Table 5.4: Factors affecting children’s school enrollment and child work (results of second
stage regression of Instrumental variables) .............................................................................. 56
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(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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ABBREVIATIONS
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Best linear unbiased estimates
DID:
Difference in difference
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BLUE:
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GSO:
General statistic office
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International Organization for Migration
IVs:
Instrumental variables
OLS:
Ordinary least square
PSM:
Propensity score matching methods.
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IOM:
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VHLSS: Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey
United Nations
UNDP:
United Nations Development Programme
US:
United Stages
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UN:
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(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
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1.1. Problem statement
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According to analysis of International Organization for Migration (IOM), there were
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more than 215 million external migrants (live outside of their countries because of many
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reasons) and over 700 million internal migrants (within country) in 2009. The remittance
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has increased gradually in recent years, besides that, remittance flow in developing
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countries was estimated to have totaled $401 billion in 2012. Global remittance included
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developed countries were estimated about $529 billion (World Bank, 2012). Remittance
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plays an important in economic development by reducing poverty, leading to higher
living standard of human such as health, education, access technologies…improving
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access to formal financial sector, better preparedness for disasters, …etc. Moreover, in
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coming decades, under the pressure of demographic forces, globalization and climate
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change, migration will increase sharply. It needs to have advanced data to research about
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the impacts of migration and remittances on human life and economy. From that, the
policy maker can have the correct direction for migration sector in the future.
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From economic renovation in 1986, Viet Nam had many remarks in development
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process. Among them, shifting from centrally-planned economy to a socialist-oriented
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market economy for industrialization, modernization was a long step in policies and
economic aspect. Beside the diversification and multilateral development of open-door
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economic, more and more Vietnamese aboard to live and work. External migration
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contributes to economy and raises the living standard of remaining people. In 2012, Viet
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Nam was rated in seventh among the biggest receiving remittances countries ($ 10
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billion) with about 4 million oversea Vietnamese. From 1991, it was accounted about 60-
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people. According to United Nations Development Programme (2009), estimated amount
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important role in Vietnam’s economy, but also affects to the demographic of Vietnamese
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70% remittances comparing to foreign investment. Remittance not only plays an
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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of money which migrant send back to their family reaches 5.5 billion dollars in 2007. In
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parallel with that, internal migration from rural to urban has become a general upward
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trend in Viet Nam a few last year. Not only male, the share of female migrants has
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strongly dominated and played an important role in migrant worker (a half of internal
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migration in 2009). Most migrants have close relationship with their origin families
through sending remittances and affecting demographic characteristics of members in the
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household. It is so useful for examining the impacts of migration on children’s welfare. In
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reality, education investment for children occupies a big part of expenditure amount in a
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household. So, the matter is whether migration contributes to school enrollment of
children or not and how children in migrant household will differ with no migrant
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household’s children. From that, need deeper research about whether gender of migrant
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and time of migrant living in household can impact directly to school enrollment. Some
suggestions can be concluded in reality which need to be confirmed are: (1) Migrant help
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children have more school enrollment; (2) if household has female migrant, the level of
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school enrollment of children is better than household having male migrant. Two issues,
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school enrollment and child work, of course, are interconnected closely. When migration
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affects to children’s school enrollment, it will affect to child work also. Besides that, there
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were many reports and papers such as Cuong (2008), Pfau and Long (2006) research
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about migration and remittance before. Meanwhile impact of migration and migrant’s
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gender on children’s school enrollment and child work in Vietnam has not been studied
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and need more papers having the deep view about this aspect.
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By applying data of Vietnam household living standard survey (VHLSS) 2010, this
paper is expected to use a suitable regression to investigate the impacts of migration and
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migrant’s gender on children’s school enrollment and child work in Viet Nam for that
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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similar previous research, that is time of migrant spending in household will be used to
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time clearly. After that, a main key factor of migrant which wasn’t recommended in the
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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find out how migrant’s monitor effect children’s welfare. Finally, it hopes that the results
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of research will be helpful for migration policy.
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1.2. Research Objectives
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The aiming objectives of this research are to meet the following objectives:
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a) To examine the impacts of migration and migrant’s gender on children’s school
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enrollment and child work
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b) To make recommendations for government about the policies and programs
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which tend to promote the effectiveness of migration in children development
as well as human capital investment.
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1.3. Research question
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The research will try to address some questions like that:
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a) How do migration and migrant’s gender significantly affect children’s school
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enrollment?
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b) How do migration and migrant’s gender significantly affect child work?
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1.4. Research scope
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As we know, in rural areas most of the family face to the poor and not sure to
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guarantee a complete life. Clearly, the impact level of migration mostly happens strongly
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in rural areas where economic situation play a key important role in outcome of people.
Therefore, the research focuses on impact of migration and migrant’s gender on
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children’s welfare in rural areas in 2010. It aims to rural-urban and rural-aboard migration
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flow.
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1.5. Structure of the research
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(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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about the research, raising the problem and objectives as well as scope of the research.
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This research will be classified into 6 main parts. The first part introduces overview
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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The second part is the literature is the solid basis theory and previous empirical
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p
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experience before relating to research. The third part shows methodology, estimated
do
equation in the research. It also talks about the data which used for methodology. The
w
next part is to know how social-economic characteristic of Vietnam impact on migration
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ad
lo
and overview of migration case in Vietnam. The fifth part show the result of model after
running the regression, and explain the result appear in the model. The final part is
th
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conclusion and recommendation, limitation need to take experience in the research.
an
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4
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
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2.1.
Definition of key concept
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Children: United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child considers children as
w
n
a human being under 18 years old. Even in some definitions, child includes the fetus and
ad
lo
the unborn. It is important to note that in most paper, the author will define children by
th
their own purpose by disaggregating children group into specified group. For the purpose
yj
ip
uy
of this research relating to school and labor supply of child so children which is
concerned in the thesis is limited schooling ages from 6 to 18 years old child. This
la
an
lu
definition will be used throughout the paper.
n
va
Migration: General familiar definition of migration is the movement of human from
m
ll
fu
one place to another. According to International Organization for Migration, there is not
the universally definition exists. The term migrant can be applied for personal, family
n
oi
moving to another place for a better life without intervention of external forces. Migration
tz
ha
can be permanent, if that person will never return to his/her origin places, or for a long
z
term he/she move to other places and live in that destination over at least 12 months. A
vb
short term migrant is the person who moves to other place at least 3 months but less than
ht
k
jm
1 year. Under definitions, traveler in short term or business persons will not be considered
ai
gm
as migrant. However, migrant includes certain kinds of short-term migrant such as
seasonal worker, farm-worker. In the context of this paper, migrants are the people who
l.c
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2.2.
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have permanent residence in other places different from origin.
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work in another place over 6 last months and it doesn’t count permanent migrants who
Theoretical literature
va
n
2.2.1. Lewis model (1954)
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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5
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Because of the disparity between two sectors, if evaluate the productivity and human
re
In Lewis’s theory, traditional agriculture and industrial sector exists simultaneously.
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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resource of each sector, traditional agriculture which has surplus labor and low
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p
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productivity will move in to industrial sector which has high productivity and high
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technology level. Lewis shows that 30% of income difference between two sectors will
w
make the labor move to the higher income. For a long time, the gap of income between
n
ad
lo
them is lower, the wage in agricultural sector will equal to the wage of industrial sector.
At that time the attractiveness to promote the movement will be disappear.
th
yj
uy
Although, theory of Lewis is considered as the basis model of development but it was
la
ip
also criticized by other economists. Lewis thought that the relationship of reinvestment or
an
lu
capital accumulation and number of jobs is positive. Clearly, when investing to the
technology, the labor force will be reduced. Moreover, Lewis shows the supply of labor in
n
va
agriculture is elastic and limitless. According to Todaro (2003), surplus of labor in rural is
m
ll
fu
limited and quite small. Thirdly, Lewis assumed that in the industrial sectors, wage will
n
oi
be constant instead of increase over time. In addition, diminishing return of industrial
tz
ha
sector need to be argued, in while, in real the return of industrial sector also increase in
some specific fields.
z
ht
vb
2.2.2. The push pull theory of migration (1966)
jm
Push pull theory (Lee, 1966) is neoclassical theory which explains why people move
k
ai
gm
for rural-rural, rural- urban, urban-urban and international migration. It emphasizes the
om
population area or because of fluctuation of business cycle.
l.c
trends of people move from low to high income area or from densely to sparsely
Lu
an
Decision to migrate and process of migration can be summarized by 4 main factors:
va
Characteristics of origin, characteristics of destination, intervening obstacles (cost, border,
n
etc…) and nature of people. Among them we separate it into two kind of factor, push
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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6
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a better life such as economic opportunities, political repression, infrastructure, access to
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factors include demographic grow low living standards, people lack of conditions to have
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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clean water, sanitation, etc (in the origin area)...Pull factors include demand of labor, land,
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economic opportunities, political freedom, good infrastructure in the destination and so on
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(in the destination). A potential migrant will consider the balance of all the attractive and
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interactive factors and attractive factors of destination along with difficulties of
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ad
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intervening obstacle and nature of human to decide migration.
th
Some weak-points of theory could be given such as it couldn’t say why the reason to
yj
uy
move. It judged that economic growth is the main reason for people moving and unable to
la
ip
predict the movement in the future. It also didn’t account the fact that some people have
an
lu
less ability to have migrating decision, people also differ in their ability to act of
migrating decision although they want to migrate.
n
va
Todaro model (Todaro, 1969)
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ll
fu
2.2.3.
Corresponding to macroeconomic theory is microeconomic, Todaro model is
n
oi
considered as a predecessor of theory for rural migration, Todaro model is the basic
tz
ha
theory not only for internal migration but also international migration because of valuable
z
cores. Todaro explained that the persistent of internal migration is to face the
vb
ht
unemployment in the destination places. The existence of underemployment and
jm
unemployment of urban areas affects the probability of rural migration when they have
k
ai
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difficulties in finding a job over there. In contrast to other previous paper when
l.c
considering labor transfer process include one- stage, Todaro showed that this process
om
include two-stage. First stage is the movement of unskilled rural worker to urban areas
when there is the permanent movement in modern sector jobs.
an
Lu
and spend time in one “urban traditional” sectors. The second-stage is the phenomenon
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va
7
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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industrial expansion, productivity growth, differential in earning capacity of urban versus
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te
also relevant with international migration. The interdependence of mixing effect from
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Although Todaro only concerned about internal migration but income hypothesis is
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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rural activities leads to the migration and occupational distribution in urban places. When
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p
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evaluating the determinant of urban labor supply it needs to concern about the rural-
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urban expected income. Differential income will be adjusted so unemployment rate will
w
be a problem with urban supply when rural worker migrate to find a job with expected
n
ad
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income. From that it said that raising income by creation employment in rural area
th
s will help reducing out-migration in rural areas. So the policy which government can
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support is development programs make rural life more attractive. One more important
la
ip
matter affect the decision making of migrant is the balance between the risks and the
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probabilities of unemployed in one period with certain wage and the opportunities to have
a permanent job. It also depends on the behavioral and spirit of migrant who prefer which
Chain migration theory
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fu
2.2.4.
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va
fundamental role among them.
Chain migration is the relationship between the previous migrants and current
tz
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migrants through the movement of migrant from this place to other place follows previous
z
migrants. Previous migrants will establish the transportation, accommodation,
vb
ht
information…so make it convenient for migrant to migrate. Follows migrants path
jm
therefore, knowledge of destination increase, obstacles decrease so attractiveness of
k
ai
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destination increase. Lee’s (1966) argued that migration facilitates information of
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destination back to origin. Moreover, Böcker (1994) emphasized migration network
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reduce the risks as well as material and psychological cost for next migrants.
Lu
an
Chain migration and the expectation of migration may increase illegal immigration or
va
migrant will find destination not as attractive as expected. On the other hand, this theory
n
doesn’t offer the insight into the mechanism which migration network can lead to weaken
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te
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lead to increase migration.
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migration system. It also didn’t indicate that counteract of external and internal processes
8
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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To evaluate the influence of any economic-social factors or program of the
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government on standard living of individuals, household, communities, a familiar method
do
is impact evaluation. The core method of impact evaluation which Khandker et al (2010)
w
concerned in his research was to choose a good comparison group with treatment group.
n
ad
lo
Two groups have the similar characteristics but the difference is the intervention elements
of treatment group and comparison group. The below equation represents a direct effect
th
yj
of T on the program Y in context subject i with or without intervention:
uy
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lu
la
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Y_i= * X_i+ * T_i +ε_i
Where T is the dummy variable with the value 1 if subject with intervention, 0 if
n
va
subject without intervention
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ll
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X: the observed characteristics of subject and other characteristics affect subject i.
tz
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ε: Error term representing unobserved characteristics which affect Y.
The accuracy of impact evaluation depends on the reasonable assumptions as well as
z
exogenous factors. Khandker et al(2010) also represented some various economics
vb
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methods to address selection bias and calculating the effect of interventions.
k
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2.2.4.1. Randomized evaluation method
ai
gm
Randomized evaluation identifies a group that has the same observed characteristics
l.c
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and assigning randomly interference to evaluate the effectiveness of one project or
Lu
program. Randomized evaluation method is used to address an array of well-known bias.
an
It can resolve the selection problem that plagues treatment effect estimates. Researcher is
va
allowed to design behavioral parameters that are difficult to estimate by other methods.
n
9
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th
costly including expensive and take much time. Moreover, it have little or no external
y
te
policymaker. But randomized evaluation is quite rare because the way to collect data
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The results of randomized evaluation are transparent and typically and highly credible to
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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validity, usually estimated impacts are local. Randomized evaluation also prone to biases
gh
p
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so misleading inference, and feasible in practice.
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2.2.4.2. Propensity score matching methods (PSM)
w
n
ad
lo
Propensity score matching estimates an average treatment from observable data and
help to match treatment with similar control units observationally. So to compare the
th
yj
intervention effects between treatment and control group which bases on the observed
uy
characteristics. The key advantage of PSM is to use linear combination of covariates for a
ip
an
lu
la
single score, so it can balance treatment and control group on a large number of covariates
without losing a large number of observations. But PSM only counts observable
n
va
covariates only, all factors affect treatment but they can’t be observable, can’t be
m
ll
fu
mentioned in the method. Another issue is that PSM requires large sample so maybe
overlap between treatment and control group. From that, biases may be created after
n
oi
matching because of missing unobservable variables and overlapping data. PSM has
tz
ha
another disadvantage when assuming no unobserved differences and this is often
implausible.
z
vb
ht
2.2.4.3. Difference- in-Differences or double difference methods (DID)
jm
k
Difference-in-Difference examines the effect of intervention of program by taking out
ai
gm
the different between control and treatment group before and after intervening. DID is
om
l.c
easy to calculate standard errors by control variables which may reduce the residual
variance. DID eliminates fixed difference not related to treatment and can study treatment
Lu
an
with different treatment intensity. But DID method assume that the unobserved
n
va
heterogeneity does not change in time but clearly when the trend change, it will make
y
te
react differently. DID will easily overestimate or underestimate the true effect.
re
biased for the result. In case unknown characteristics make control and treatment group
th
10
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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Furthermore, DID require data which have 2 pre-intervention periods of data. The lack of
gh
p
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data can be applied DID method.
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2.2.4.4. Instrumental variables ( IVs) methods
w
n
ad
lo
Instrumental variables method proves its effectiveness and flexibility when allowing
the selection bias on unobserved characteristics vary over time. It can correct the bias
th
yj
through found instruments which impact on participation status but no relationship with
uy
unobserved characteristics. IVs can control endogenous in the model effectively, thus it is
ip
an
lu
la
usually used to address the problem of omitted variable bias, unobservable variable, errors
in variables or measurement errors of endogenous variable by permitting them remain in
n
va
the error term. But IVs can be deal with some problems when instrument correlate with
m
ll
fu
errors term, lead to inconsistence. More popularly, authors usually have to face with weak
instruments and many confounders which results in imprecise and biased result. Due to
n
oi
the first-stage equation, that instrument shows the weak predicting ability. In the second-
tz
ha
state, predict the outcome exactly is limited. So the most important problem of IVs is how
to choose the good and suitable instrument variables
z
vb
ht
2.2.4.5. Regression discontinuity (RD) design and pipeline method
jm
k
Regression discontinuity which is extent from IVs accounts for selection or
ai
gm
participation on observed and unobserved characteristics. Then, compare participant and
om
l.c
non-participant groups which base on the closed location around criteria. It can yield an
unbiased estimate of treatment at the discontinuity. RD also takes advantage when
Lu
an
assigning the benefit as criteria for design of social policy. But RD only looks at sub-
11
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
th
establish eligible comparison groups who is suitable to join the program but not receiving
y
te
Pipeline comparison uses variation in the timing of program’s implementation to
re
estimating at the discontinuity, fewer observations exist to ensure not bias in the results.
n
va
group of sample and assignment rule, in practice, often not implemented strictly. When
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
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tn
the intervention. Pipeline comparison can combine RD if treatment is located on the basis
gh
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of exogenous characteristics.
do
In this research, I will use instrumental variable method because of endogeneity
w
n
appearing in model. IVs will solve the bias which is caused by endogenous variable by
ad
lo
finding the instrument variables which associate with participation but no relationship
th
with unobserved characteristics. IVs method allows us to count for observed and
yj
uy
unobserved heterogeneity as well as ensure the result which is not affected by time-
an
lu
methods.
la
ip
variant situation. The bias of result will be solved completely when comparing to other
n
va
2.3. Empirical literature
m
ll
fu
There has been not any quantitative research about the impact of migration and
gender matters on child’s welfare in Vietnam. But in the world, for years, many theories
n
oi
and empirical studies which were relevant to this impact.
tz
ha
One paper published to quantify the impact of remittances upon school enrollment
z
ht
vb
was a study of Cox-Edwards and Ureta (2003) on the risk of school dropout. The authors
jm
used cross-sectional data from Encuesta de Hogares de Propósitos Multiples 1997 and
k
estimated how remittances influence Salvadorian households’ educational. The authors
ai
gm
found out, via income effect, remittance relieve the budget constraints, it makes good
om
l.c
condition for the household afford and allows children spend more time in school. The
result is that remittances reduce significantly the dropout aged 6 to 24. To be consistent
Lu
an
with dropout decrease, authors expect the right thing is that remittances contribute
va
positively to school enrollment. However, one of concerns becoming the limitation of this
n
paper is that the authors didn’t address potential sample selectivity issues and endogeneity
re
y
te
of remittances.
th
12
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
to
tn
Indeed, with the same hypothesis, Hanson and Woodruff (2003) used Mexico’s 2000
gh
p
ie
Census data and recognized that there was the complex interaction between remittances
do
and migration. Remittances and school enrollment have the positive relationship. In
w
Mexico, in migrant family, children (from 10 to 15 year-olds) complete more grades in
n
ad
lo
school than others. But the authors also noted that negative labor shocks which affected to
parents would make the children have to spend more time to work instead of spending
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yj
their time in the school. It implied that there was the spurious negative relationship
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ip
between migration and children schooling enrollment. One concern is to overcome the
an
lu
la
limitation some previous paper, the authors knew to control the endogeneity of
remittances by using IV with historical migration rates and household characteristics
n
va
instrument.
m
ll
fu
Acosta (2006) realized that remittances can affect child outcome and labor supply in
n
oi
El Savador, the key outcomes for the growth of developing country. The paper proved
tz
ha
that the estimating of remittance was taken into account for selection and endogeneity
problem which different from estimates presented in previous studies. To solve relating
z
vb
problem, Acosta (2006) used Propensity score matching and instrumental variable method
ht
to run regression, instrument variable which was used in the paper is migration network
jm
and household migration history (number of international migrants who returns two or
k
ai
gm
more one year ago) for remittance receipt. The result showed that remittance had positive
l.c
relationship with school enrollment but not for all range of age, only for age from 11-14
om
(boys) and 11-17 (girls) year old. Moreover, negative side of remittance is to increase of
an
Lu
child work for wage. However, concerning adult labor supply, the robust result showed
that female labor supply is lower in recipients of remittance but higher with male labor
va
n
supply.
re
13
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
th
and it showed that children in migrant’s household attain more time in school and remain
y
te
Mansuri (2006) analyzed the relationship of economic migration undertaken by men
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
to
tn
in school with more accumulating years comparing to non-migrant household. Mansuri
gh
p
ie
(2006) used two strategies to address the endogeneity, the first strategy is to use
do
instrument variables, the second strategy is to confine attention to migrant household and
w
to use information on the year of initial migration to exploit the fact which affect to
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ad
lo
children school enrollment. With instrument variables, the paper found two instruments,
one is migration network with a level village and another is the number of male adult in
th
yj
household with household level. Discrimination happened in Pakistan because girls in
uy
ip
migrant household headed by female were more likely to drop out of school than boys.
an
lu
la
Moreover, both boys and girls in migrant household headed by female tend to work more
than migrant household headed by male. Education in Pakistan depended much on
n
va
income flows in the household and traditionally structure of household and social culture.
m
ll
fu
On differential impact of gender on wage income, expenditure and production of
n
oi
migrant-sending household, Pfeiffer and Taylor (2008) used probit-method and control
tz
ha
potential endogeneity by using historical migration gender as instrumental variable. They
saw that impacts of migrant left behind for sending household according to the genders.
z
vb
Male migration was more likely to engage production activities than female migration.
ht
That was explained like the role of female migration in household production activities,
jm
they only participate in a little of work in a subset of production activities. On the other
k
ai
gm
hand, female migration had the negative relationship with education, female migration
l.c
decrease the investment in education. However, male migration had negative impact. This
om
was interpreted that the lack of monitor of female migration on schooling investment or
an
Lu
the signal from international migrant about the low return of low skilled migrant.
n
va
By contrast, migration can affect school enrollment negatively, one typical example,
14
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
th
relationship. The argument of the authors is that migration affect school enrollment via
y
te
18 year olds girls and 12 to 18 year olds boys in Mexico have significant negative
re
McKenzie and Rapoport (2007) recognized that migration and school enrollment of 16 to
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
to
tn
three ways: the income effect brought by remittances, direct effect of adult migration that
gh
p
ie
requires more demand on child work, indirect effect of incentives to invest for education.
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One specific thing of migration in Mexico is that children in migrant household likely to
w
self migrate to US via illegal ways. In this context, children in migrant household are
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ad
lo
unlikely better than children in non migrant household. Once remittance became essential
for survival of population in Mexico, it generated the dependency of household to
th
yj
remittances for household members who left behind. Change in consumption, reduce
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ip
labor supply, enjoy more time in relax and more need of remittance in the future. The
an
lu
la
absent of adults in the household may increase the child’s responsibilities in the
household, greater demand for older children to run and support the family. It makes
n
va
difficult to attend school like other normal children.
m
ll
fu
To overcome some limitations in previous paper about El Savador, by using panel
n
oi
data and controlling household fixed effect method, Acosta (2011) also did another
tz
ha
research and it found that female migration tend to reduce the child work in domestic and
non-domestic. But it was not true for male migrant whom seemed to stimulate the child
z
vb
work in domestic labor. In addition, male migration seemed not to affect to school
ht
enrollment of child while female migration had the inverse impact when reducing the
jm
child school enrollment. The reason for the negative impact of female migration on school
k
ai
gm
enrollment maybe because of the absent of monitoring of female in managing funds or
l.c
difference in the use of remittances by gender of the recipient person or the child-adult
om
labor substitution.
Lu
an
According to Nguyen T, and Purnamasari R. (2011), the impact of international
n
va
migration on sending household was affected a lot by migrant’s gender in context of
15
(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam(Luáºn.văn).impacts.of.migration.and.migrant’s.gender.on.children’s.school.enrollment.and.child.work.in.viet.nam
th
reduced child work. Surprisingly, household with some male migrants household seemed
y
te
method for regression the result. As the whole, household with only female migrant
re
Indonesia. They used Family Life survey from 1993 to 2007 and instrumental variable
