Migration, climate change, and unemployment in asia

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY

………..

HUYNH HIEN HAI

MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA

DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY

………..

HUYNH HIEN HAI

MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA

Major: Economics Code : 9310101

DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS

Supervisors: Dr. Vo Hong Duc

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ha Thi Thieu Dao

Ho Chi Minh City, 2023

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DISSERTATION DECLARATION

I, Huynh Hien Hai, certify that:

 This dissertation has been substantially accomplished during enrolment in this degree.

 This dissertation does not contain material which has been submitted for the award of any other degree of diploma in my name, in any university or other tertiary institution.

 In the future, no part of this dissertation will be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior of Ho Chi Minh city Open University and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree.

 This dissertation does not contain any material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text and where relevant, in the Authorship Declaration that follows.

 This dissertation does not violate or infringe any copyright, trademark, patent, or other rights whatsoever of any person.

 This dissertation contain work under review for publication, some of which has been co-authors.

Signature

Huynh Hien Hai

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

For myself five years ago, that dreadful cave is symbolized by an academic journey through a PhD, the completion of which involves a great deal of preparation, trials and errors, discipline, perseverance, and coffee. Talking shortcuts is rarely an option and addressing constructive criticism becomes an integral aspect of my work. Fortunately, the life of a PhD candidate has many rewarding facets. Being able to build and share valuable skills and experience as a youngster in a dynamic and international environment is one of them. At the Ho Chi Minh city Open University (OU), I am grateful to so many people for acquiring a combination of skills which were necessary to complete my studies and to prepare myself for future changes. Here is the utmost right place to thank them.

This dissertation has been supervised by Dr. Vo Hong Duc (The University of Western Australia and Ho Chi Minh City Open University) and Assoc. Prof., Dr. Ha Thi Thieu Dao (Ho Chi Minh University of Banking). I would like to express my sincerest thanks to the two supervisors for the valuable time they devoted to the assessment of my work. Their comments, which range from general commendations to critical assessments on various aspects of the dissertation presentation, have motivated me greatly to strive for improved quality and clarity.

Interestingly, I would like to thank my lecturers, my colleagues and many PhD students who have guided me, supported me in my PhD Journey and participated in the evaluation committee in the past steps of the dissertation. They have given to me many comments, encouragements, helpful advice and timely reminders that they have helped me become more and more mature in my research journey in the past, current and both in the future. I also especially thank the dissertation committees at the levels steps by steps for giving me helpful comments and advice.

My family plays no small part in the successful endeavor of this project. I thank my parents, my wife, my friends… whose support and understanding are always with me

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wherever my dreams lead me. Words alone are not sufficient to express what I owe people. I thus dedicate my dissertation work to them.

With all this said, I am eager to explore the next cave to find the next treasure in my life.

Ho Chi Minh city, 2023

Huynh Hien Hai

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SUMMARY OF DISSERTATION

MIGRATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ASIA

This dissertation contributes to the literature on climatic factors, international migration, and unemployment in several ways. The motivations for the study emerge from practical circumstances and research gaps from the existing literature. Statistics reveal that Asia is ranked the second-largest region in the world in terms of the number of migrants, following Europe. On the theoretical aspects, this study offers a comprehensive and systematic review of migration theories within the context of climate change and labor market unemployment. The study aims to provide a comprehensive review of relevant theories and empirical analyses to identify research gaps. Based on empirical results, this dissertation analyzes the influence of climatic factors on migration and investigates their impact on unemployment in Asian countries. This study also examines the effects of climatic factors on the labor market, including unemployment, in the short and long terms. This study primarily focuses on climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions, which affect migration and unemployment. The study provides important empirical results pertaining to Asian countries, with a focus on both the short and long term.This study seeks to discover new findings related to the complex interactions among climate change, migration, and unemployment, especially at the macro-level in Asia. The dissertation starts with research objectives, contributions, the theoretical framework, and research questions. It proceeds to provide definitions related to migration, climate change, and unemployment. The study also systematically synthesizes relevant issues which are then addressed in this dissertation, including the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors on migration in Asia. In addition, the effects of migration on unemployment have also been investigated for Asian countries. The influence of climatic factors on unemployment has also been investigated in Asia. The empirical results have some new findings. In particular, the rainfall significantly and negatively affects migration.

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The previous rainfall has a positive effect on migration in the two groups of countries, but the effect on the upper income group is stronger. The CO2 emissions has a positive relationship with migration. The previous CO2 emissions has a negative effect on migration, the effect on the lower income group is stronger. The previous migration shows a positive effect for both groups of countries, but the magnitude for low-income countries is stronger. The previous unemployment tends to be increasingly the unemployment. Migration shows a positive impact on the unemployment in the lower-income countries. Previous migration plays an important role in reducing unemployment in upper-group, but increase unemployment in lower-group. In short terms, the temperature, CO2 have negative affect to unemployment, and the rainfall has positively affected to unemployment. In long terms, the CO2 tends to diminishingly affect to unemployment in Asian countries.

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1.2. Research objectives and questions ... 18

1.3. The value and contributions of the dissertation ... 19

1.4. Subject and scope ... 20

1.5 Analytic framework and research questions ... 21

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2.1.3 The unemployment ... 28

2.2 Research gap and contributions ... 30

2.2.1 Climate change and migration ... 31

2.2.2 Migration and unemployment ... 32

2.2.3 Climate change and unemployment ... 32

2.2.4 Contributions... 34

2.3 Summary ... 35

CHAPTER 3 THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN ASIA ... 36

3.1 Introduction: ... 36

3.2 Theories and literature review ... 40

3.2.1 Theories... 40

3.2.1.1 Laws of migration by Ravenstein (1885)... 40

3.2.1.2 Lee’s Migration Model (1966) ... 41

3.2.1.3 The drivers of migration by Black (2011) ... 43

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4.2.1.1 The dual-sector model by Lewis (1954) ... 69

4.2.1.2 Harris – Todaro model (1969) ... 71

4.2.1.3 The new economics of labor migration model (1980s) ... 75

4.2.1.4 World Systems theory by Wallerstein (1974) ... 76

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5.1.2 The unemployment rate ... 104

5.2 Theories and literature review ... 105

5.2.1 Theories... 105

5.2.1.1 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework ... 106

5.2.1.2 Theory of environment economics by Turner (1993) ... 109

5.4.2 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using GLS estimation in short-run techniques ... 124

5.4.4 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using in long-run techniques by FMOLS, DOLS and CCR ... 127

5.4.5 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group ... 130

5.4.6 Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group ... 133

5.5 Results and discussions ... 136

5.6 Conclusions ... 138

5.7 Summary ... 139

CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS ... 141

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6.1.1 Conclusions ... 141

6.1.2 Academic contributions ... 142

6.2 Policy implications... 146

6.2.1 National policies on climate change ... 146

6.2.2 National policies on international migration and climatic migration ... 150

6.2.3 National policies on unemployment ... 153

6.3 Limitations ... 157

References ... 158

APPENDIX 1 LIST THE SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES ... 173

APPENDIX 2 ECONOMETRIC RESULTS ... 175

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 Key data by the World Migration Reports between 2000 and 2020... 11

Table 3.2 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and migration 46 Table 3.3 Descriptive statistics ... 59

Table 3.4 Collinearity test ... 60

Table 3.5 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test ... 61

Table 3.6 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to migration using S.GMM estimations ... 62

Table 4.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between migration and unemployment 81 Table 4.2 Descriptive statistics ... 90

Table 4.3 Collinearity matrix ... 91

Table 4.4 Autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test ... 92

Table 4.5 Empirical results – Effects of the migration on the unemployment rate using GMM estimations ... 93

Table 4.6 Results of 2SLS test of unemployment on migration ... 95

Table 5.1 Empirical researches on the relationship between climate change and unemployment... 112

Table 5.2 Descriptive statistics ... 123

Table 5.3 Collinearity test ... 124

Table 5.4 Multiplier magnifies the variance VIF ... 125

Table 5.5 The autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity tests ... 125

Table 5.6 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using GLS estimation ... 126

Table 5.7 Panel unit root test results ... 127

Table 5.8 Kao panel co-integration test ... 128

Table 5.9 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations ... 129

Table 5.10 Panel unit root test results ... 130

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Table 5.12 Empirical results – Effects of climate factors to unemployment using FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations by upper-income countries group ... 132 Table 5.13 Panel unit root test results ... 133 Table 5.14 Kao panel co-integration test ... 134 Table 5.15 Empirical results – Effects of climatic factors to unemployment using FOLS,

DOLS and CCR estimations by lower-income countries group ... 135 Table 6.1 A summary of the hypotheses and results... 142

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 International migrant stock at mid-year in Asia 1990-2020 ... 12

Figure 1.2 The global international migrant stock by region 1990-2020 ... 13

Figure 1.3 The average unemployment rate in Asia countries 1991 - 2020 ... 14

Figure 1.4 Analytic framework ... 21

Figure 1.5 Summarizes of the research process ... 22

Figure 3.1 The origin and destination factors in migration ... 42

Figure 3.2 Drivers of migration ... 44

Figure 4.1 The model of migration and unemployment by Harris-Todaro ... 73

Figure 5.1 Working hours lost due to heat stress under a 1.5°C scenario, 1995–2030, percentages ... 101

Figure 5.2 The sustainable livelihoods framework. ... 106

Figure 5.3 A sustainable livelihoods framework for the 21st century ... 108

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ABBREVIATION

CCR : The Canonical Cointegration Regression COVID-19 : Coronavirus disease

DOLS : The panel dynamic ordinary least square

FMOLS : Fully modified ordinary least square GLS : Generalized least squares

GMM : The generalized method of moments ILO : International Labor Organization

IOM : International Organization for Migration IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NASA : National Aeronautics and Space Administration NELM : The New Economics of Labour Migration

OECD : The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

UNFCC : United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

In this chapter, this chapter will present basic contents of the dissertation, including an overview, research objectives, question objectives, and the value and significances of this study. Each of these aspects is summarized as below.

1.1. Overview

There are many reasons that could lead people to migrate to another place, both internal or international migration. There are five primary macro-level drivers of migration, including economic, demographic, social, political, and environmental factors (Black et al., 2011). Researchers still focus heavily on economic aspects, demographics, social capital, or political issues without paying enough attention to environmental and climate reasons (Hoffmann et al., 2021). The science of migration-environment or climate change connections does not yet lead to one central conclusion – and perhaps it never will (Hunter et al., 2015). In addition, the movement of people between regions can lead to changes in labor supply and demand, and employment and unemployment rates will change (Harris & Todaro, 1970).

The current figures show that, as of mid-year 2019, the worldwide data of international migrants reached 172 million, with the international migrant stock constituting 3.5 per cent of the world population. This rate is much higher than 2.8% in 1990. This leads to a global problem of migration management in today's society in order to predict and propose appropriate policies for international migration waves. In 2019, international migrants who were 19 years old and younger and residing in the country/region consisted of 13.9 per cent of the total share (UN, 2020).

Table 1.1 illustrated the key data by the World Migration Reports which compare

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Table 1.1 Key data by the World Migration Reports between 2000 and 2020

Source: United Nations (2020)

With a population of around 4.6 billion, Asia contributed to over 40 per cent of the international migrants around the world in 2019, which amounted to 111 million. Out of these, a majority of 66 million migrants resided in other Asian countries, showing a substantial rise from the previous estimate of 61 million in 2015. The trend of intra-regional migration within Asia has been steadily increasing, reaching 35 million in 1990. Over the past two decades, there has been remarkable growth in the quantity of migrants who are Asian-born populations in Europe and Northern America. In particular, the migration from Asia to Northern America rose from just over 16 million in 2015 to 17 million in 2019, and it was nearly 22 million in Europe. The rise in the number of Asian migrants outside the

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region was mainly due to migration to Europe zone and Northern America countries, accounting for a whole of 44.6 million extra-regional migrants in 2019.

Source: United Nations (2020)

Figure 1.1 International migrant stock at mid-year in Asia 1990-2020

In 2020, Europe and Asia hosted around 87 and 86 million international migrants, respectively, which accounted for 61 per cent of the global international migrant stock (IOM, 2021). North America came next with nearly 59 million people who are international migrants, making up 21 per cent of the global migrant stock. Africa made up 9 per cent, while Latin America and the Caribbean consisted of 5 per cent, and Oceania of 3 per cent. The share of international migrants was highest in Oceania, North America, and Europe, making up 22 per cent, 16 per cent, and 12 per cent of the total population, respectively, when compared to the population size in each region. In contrast, the share of international migrants was relatively low in Asia and Africa (1.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively) and Latin America and the Caribbean (2.3 per cent). Despite this, Asia experienced the most substantial growth from 2000 to 2020, with a 74 per cent increase, which translates to around 37 million people in absolute terms. Europe followed closely with an increase of

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30 million international migrants, while North America experienced a rise of 18 million international migrants and Africa with 10 million (IOM, 2021)

Source: International Organization for Migration (2021)

Figure 1.2 The global international migrant stock by region 1990-2020

ILO (2020) reported that the average unemployment rate for Asian countries was 7.56 percent, with Armenia having the highest value of 21.206 percent and Qatar having the lowest value of 0.214 percent. According to the International Labor Organization, the data for all countries where data are available of the unemployment rate on the labor force in Asian countries between 1991 and 2020.

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Source: International Labor Organization (2020)

Figure 1.3 The average unemployment rate in Asia countries 1991 - 2020

Asia is a vast and diverse continent with economies at various stages of development. Unemployment rates can vary significantly from country to country. Some countries have relatively low unemployment rates due to robust economic growth, while others face higher rates due to structural issues or economic challenges. In 2021, some Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, had relatively low unemployment rates, around 2-4% (World Bank, 2023). These countries have highly industrialized economies and strong labor markets. However, other countries, particularly in South Asia and Southeast Asia, had higher unemployment rates, which were affected by factors such as population growth, skills mismatch, and informal labor markets. For example, India's unemployment rate fluctuated between 6,51 per cent in 2019, 10,2 per cent in 2020 to 7,33% in 2022, and Indonesia's unemployment rate was around 3,55% in 2022 (Statista, 2023). Unemployment in Asia is a complex issue influenced by a multitude of factors.

Asia, which is home to the largest contributors to global warming, is also one of the most vulnerable areas by the impacts of climatic and environmental factors. In 2021,

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is expected to increase. If a worst-case scenario occurs, by 2050, the huge majority of people living in areas with a high likelihood of deadly heat waves will be in Asia, further exacerbated by global warming and carbon dioxide emissions (IPCC, 2022). The Asia has now generally considered a new dynamic region for socio-economic problems and economic development. Besides, the Asian area is also known as an area which is subject to erratic weather fluctuations. The establishment of the Asian economies plays an important role for the region to enhance the regional integration to support economic growth for all the member countries. The movement of labor in international integration in the Asian region has also converted a very important aspect for policy purposes. The complicated relationship of climate change and the other environmental factors have the strong influences to human mobility, along with the impact on the labor market in the destination and origin countries. Furthermore, the literature review reveals that this significant and intricate relationship has not garnered significant attention in Asia. Although it may exist in current literature for the Asian region, it lacks sufficient coverage. As a result, this study consider that this current gap warrants this research project to be conducted with the particular focus on the Asian region in order to provide direct and relevant policy implications for the governments and international organizations in formulating and implementing relevant policies.

Furthermore, there has been a significant rise in empirical research focusing on the effects of climatic factors and other environmental issues on migration. Nevertheless, there is no full consensus yet the trends and scales of the influence of these factors on migration. While some studies have established a link between environmental change and a rise in human migration, others have reported no effect or a decline in migration. When Backhaus et al. (2015); Falco et al. (2018); Sloat et al. (2020) used the data in the world; Beine &

Parsons (2017) discover this relationship for OECD countries; However, Grechi &

Agustoni (2019); Mueller et al. (2020); Nawrotzki & Bakhtsiyarava (2017); Private country: Chen & Mueller (2019); Dallmann & Millock (2017); Evertsen & van der Geest (2019); Mastrorillo et al. (2016); Jha et al. (2017); Rafiq et al. (2017); Sedova & Kalkuhl

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(2020); Suckall et al. (2017) researched by the private country. The findings of this

complex relationship have never analyzed for the Asian countries fully. The variation in empirical findings depends on the environmental factors studied, the scale and type of analysis conducted, the methodology used, and the geographic locations examined. Furthermore, in the same studies, the projected scale and direction of environmental migration can vary significantly. The heterogeneity of the available evidence makes it difficult to tackle the challenges associated with the potential surge in global migration resulting from future environmental changes.

Migration is a fascinating and multifaceted concept that exerts a dynamic influence on society over time, with a byzantine structure regarding to causality and impact. Consequently, it generates a wide range of research topics that are meticulously investigated by anthropologists, sociologists, historians, geographers, and economists. Economists, in particular, closely analyze the impacts of migration on economic growth and employment. Beyer (2016) noticed that employed a survey method to analyze efficiency of the German labor market, migrant workers earned 20 per cent less and had higher unemployment rates and lower participation rate of labor market than domestic workers. However, the situation has since changed over time, with an average of 20 years later. The analysis revealed that migrant workers earned 20 per cent less than their domestic counterparts, had lower labor market participation rates, and higher unemployment rates. However, this situation has evolved over time, with an improvement observed on average 20 years later. Using monthly population survey data from 2001 to 2013, Rios‐Avila and Canavire-Bacarreza (2016) conducted an finding of the effect of migration on unemployment in the United States. Their findings indicated that immigration did not have a prominent impact on unemployment overall, but it had a more pronounced influence on younger and less educated individuals (Lee, 1966). Altunỗ et al. (2017) conducted a study using time-series data to find the relationship between international migration and economic growth, inflation, and unemployment in Turkey's economy over the period

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1985-migration with a reciprocal causal relationship. Furthermore, they observed a unidirectional causal association from inflation to unemployment, from economic growth to inflation, and from unemployment back to economic growth. Finally, the authors inferred that there was no causal connection between unemployment and external migration. Using data from the period of 2014-2016 and Spearman correlation analysis, Çelik (2018) investigated the connection between unemployment and immigration in Turkey. Their study revealed a substantial and affirmative correlation between both general and youth unemployment with migration and emigration.

The scope of empirical studies by recent authors is very diverse, with the focus on EU countries, OECD countries, groups or only one country, such as EU: Nica (2015), Schneider (2022), Kwilinski et al. (2022); OECD: Czaika & Parsons (2017), Kilic et al. (2019); Countries groups: Arisman & Yaja (2020), Mueller et al. (2018), Single country: Islam & Khan (2015), Awad et al. (2015), Latif (2015), Alkhateeb et al. (2018), Espinosa & Emparanza (2019), AboElsoud et al. (2020), Thomas (2019), Mohler et al. (2018), Panthamit (2017), Monte et al. (2018). In general, the literature on migration and unemployment yields different results. While several researches suggest that migration has a pessimistic influence on unemployment, others claim that it has a pessimistic influence on certain types of unemployment. Several researches find that there is no significant relationship between employment and migration. Unemployment has become a global concern in recent years, affecting not only underdeveloped and developing nations but also developed ones.

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of the migration on the unemployment in the past and present literature. Some studies suggest that the migration has a pessimistic influence on unemployment, while others indicate a positive effect, and some suggest that there is no significant linking between unemployment and migration. The impacts of migration have motivated the author to investigate the connections between environmental and climatic factors and migration, migration and unemployment, and climatic factors and unemployment. Utilizing appropriate econometric tools, the author aims to uncover new evidence on these relationships.

1.2. Research objectives and questions

This research project is conducted to achieve the following research objectives.

 First, this study investigates the effects of the climatic factors such as the

temperature, rainfall, emission dioxide on the migration. The author considers that this analysis will provide evidence on the rationales for issues of climatic migration.

 Second, this research objective provide evidence on the rationales for international

migration to the unemployment. In addition, this study tries to discover the differences between the upper-income countries and lower-income countries in Asia.

 Third, the effects of the environmental or climatic factors to the labor market, in

particular the unemployment, in the Asian countries will be examined, both the long-run and short-run are examined. This dissertation will provide evidence to support the labor market in the Asian region which could present some the suitable

policies for the policymakers.

Research questions

 First, what is the effect of climate change on migration in Asian countries?

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 Second, what is the relationship between migration and the unemployment in the Asian region? What is the effect of the migration on the unemployment rate in the upper-income countries? What is the effect of the migration on the unemployment rate in the lower-income countries?

 Third, what is the impact of the climate change on the unemployment of Asian countries in the short term and long term?

1.3. The value and contributions of the dissertation

Findings from this dissertation are expected to contribute to existing literature on the international migrations on the following grounds. This research will be useful for researchers in environmental economics, labor economics, and policymakers in countries to manage policies on environment, climate change, migration, and unemployment in the future.

 First, the impacts of the climate change on the labor market and migration issues

which have been widely discussed by economists and practitioners. While the Asian region - a new economic hub for the global economy - seems to have not been centralized and the codified completely in current literature. The Asian countries are mainly the emerging markets where people migrate for different reasons, from economic reasons to other reasons. The economic factors still are the main subject of findings that don’t pay attention to the environmental factors to the migration.

 Second, a level of economic growth in the Asian countries varies significantly

among members. This level is also very different in comparison with other countries in the world. As such, migration into and out of the Asian countries where have the high rate of the labor migration but there are not fully findings about the international migration relating with labor market in the Asia. This dissertation mays provide evidence of the relationship between the migration and the unemployment in the Asia. Due to the ability of the economy and labor demand to adjust to changes in labor supply and demand, the impacts of migration may vary in

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the short-term and the long-term. Migration can lead to increased competition for existing jobs in certain occupational sectors, but it can also generate new employment opportunities.

 Third, this dissertation discovers the influences of climate change on the labor

market which only have the relationship between the climate change and economic growth; economic growth and the labor market in previous findings, especially, the unemployment rate in Asia.

1.4. Subject and scope

In order to analysis these relationships between environment, unemployment and migration in Asian countries. This research comprises three interrelated studies on the connections between climate change, migration and unemployment. It employs recently estimated data on data of international migration to explore these relationships and to examine how environmental degradation and migration might contribute to socioeconomic concerns. Particularly, the researching on environmental factors affecting migration which has not been paid enough attention. Interestingly, there are varying opinions on the impact of the migration on the unemployment in the past and present literature. Some studies suggest that the migration has a pessimistic influence on unemployment, while others indicate a positive effect, and some suggest that there is no significant linking between unemployment and migration. The impacts of migration have motivated the author to investigate the connections between environmental and climatic factors and migration, migration and unemployment, and climatic factors and unemployment. Utilizing appropriate econometric tools, the author aims to uncover new evidence on these relationships.

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1.5 Analytic framework and research questions

Figure 1.4 Analytic framework

To achieve the above research objective, the following research questions have been raised.

 First, what is the effect of climate change migration in Asian countries?  Second, what is the migration affect to the unemployment rate in the Asian

region? What is the effect of the migration affect to the unemployment rate in the upper-income countries? What is the effect of the migration affect to the unemployment rate in the lower-income countries?

 Third, what is the impact of the climate change on the unemployment of Asian countries in the short term and long term?

 The three main objectives of the study are presented in Figure 2.1. The following section will elaborate on these objectives in detail. In this dissertation, the research stage is summarized as the following:

MIGRATION

UNEMPLOYMENT CLIMATE CHANGE

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Figure 1.5 Summarizes of the research process

CLIMATE CHANGE, MIGRATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT

The influence of climate factors on

Backgrounds about climate change,

migration and unemployment Empirical researches around the world

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1.6 Methodology 1.6.1 Data

This study uses the data which get by World Bank, International Labor Organization and United Nations from 1990 to 2020. This study employs panel data analysis to examine the correlation between migration and unemployment. To answer the first and second questions, this research uses the 47 countries' data with the 5-year estimates because of the limitation of migration data from the United Nation. Furthermore, the data is not including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, and Palestine because of the lack of these countries’ figures. To answer the third question, this research uses the 45 countries' data by annual data which is not including Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Maldives, North Korea and Palestine because of the lack of these countries’ figures. Classification of data is based on the standard of World Bank, the data is divided into two group, which is including the upper middle income and high income countries (Upper-income group); the low and lower-middle income countries (Lower-income countries).

1.6.2 Methods

This study uses some main techniques to uncover the research problem, they are including GLS, GMM, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR estimations to achieve the suitable regressions to answer research questions by data of Asian countries.

Dynamic panel estimation, two-step system GMM is known to be consistent, asymptotically normal, and the most efficient among all estimators that do not use additional information beyond the moment conditions. Hansen (1982) developed GMM as an extension of the method of moments developed by Pearson (1894). However, these estimators are mathematically equivalent to those based on orthogonality conditions (Sargan, 1958, 1959) or unbiased estimating equations (Huber, 1967; Wang et al., 1997). This dissertation uses the Dynamic panel data estimation with two-step stages to run the following regression to examine the important relationship of the environmental factors

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and socio-economic factors on the migration to answer the first and second research questions.

In short-run, the author uses the GLS to estimate the impacts of climate factors to the unemployment in 45 Asian countries by annual data. Additionally, the author aims to investigate the long-term direct effects of climate change on unemployment in Asian countries through the use of FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR techniques to answer the third question. Descriptive statistical methods, multi-collinearity tests, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity will be used. After testing these techniques, author also analyze the panel unit root with the Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) along with Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), panel co-integration test with Kao test to analyze the regression including GLS, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR regression for annual data.

1.7 Dissertation outline

This dissertation covers various themes related to international migration with climate change, the relationship between international migration and unemployment, as well as the effects of climate change on unemployment in Asia. The first chapter offers the introduction of researching problems. In the second chapter, the dissertation examines previous research focused on the correlation between climate change and international migration rates, the link between international migration and unemployment rates, and the direct influences of climate change on unemployment. Third chapter evaluates how climate change factors affect the international migration rates in Asian countries. The fourth chapter analyzes the impacts of the international migration rate on the unemployment rate. Next, in fifth chapter, the impacts of climate change on the labor market in Asia are identified. Finally, the sixth chapter proposes the main results of dissertation and revive some recommendations for the policymakers.

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CHAPTER 2

DEFINITIONS AND RESEARCH GAPS

In this chapter, the author discusses related definitions and research gaps. First, this chapter presents and discusses important concepts such as climate change, unemployment, and migration. Second, this chapter provides a comprehensive examination, discussion, and integration of empirical research exploring the correlation between migration and climate change, the link between migration and unemployment, as well as the remarkable relationship of climatic factors and unemployment.

2.1 Definitions

To better understand how about the migration and the related issues, this dissertation starts with the following definitions.

2.1.1 The migrations

The social sciences' attention to international migration has fluctuated with different waves of emigration and immigration. Generally, migration is a multifaceted phenomenon involving people moving from one place to another, whether it be a permanent or temporary change of residence (Lee, 1966).

Migration can be characterized as a permanent or semi-permanent shift in residence, and as such, it can be viewed as a type of relocation diffusion, which encompasses the transfer of people, ideas, innovations, and behaviors from one place to another. Specifically, migration involves a permanent move to a new location. Push and pull factors determine the reasons for people to migrate, which either motivate individuals to move to a new location or force them to leave their current residence. These factors may be economic, political, cultural, or environmental. Migration is classified into two categories based on spatial boundaries: internal and international migration. Internal migration refers

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to the movement of people within a country's borders, whereas international migration involves the movement of individuals across borders between different countries.

According to the UN (2017), migration refers to the act of moving from one migration-defining area to another, or the act of moving a minimum specified distance during a given migration period, which includes a change in residency. Migration can be classified as either permanent or temporary. Temporary migration refers to when rural family members move to a destination location for a specified duration and return to their place of origin. Migration flows can be defined as the volume of migrants who enter or exit a particular country within a specified time period, typically one year.

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines migration as the process of moving from one geographical location to another, with the intention of changing one's place of residence. In the context of human geography, migration encompasses the relocation of individuals from one place to another, with the aim of establishing a new residence, whether permanently or temporarily. It is a multifaceted social, economic, and political phenomenon with profound implications for individuals, communities, and countries as a whole (Bayefsky, 2000)

The phenomenon of migration has always been of great interest to economists and sociologists due to the problems that arise. Migration leads to a decrease in the labor supply where migrants leave and an increase where they move to. In addition to the change in the manual labor force, migration also entails the movement of gray matter and intellectual human resources from one area to another. Migration helps to balance or reduce labor demand in the area where migrants arrive, reducing labor costs and contributing to increased profits for employers. However, migration also increases social problems such as instability in security, health, politics, climate change etc. The benefits and costs of migration in the destination and origin places are always biased.

The net migration rate is calculated by subtracting the number of emigrants from

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this figure by the number of person-years lived by the population of that country over the same period. The result is expressed as the average annual net number of migrants per 1,000 people. In this research, the focus is on net migration, which refers to the net total of migrants during a specific period. This includes both citizens and noncitizens and is calculated as the total number of immigrants minus the annual number of emigrants (UN, 2017). This dissertation uses the net migration rate following this definition which is estimated by United Nations.

2.1.2 The climate change

The word "environment" originates from the French word "Environia" which means to surround. It encompasses both the abiotic (non-living or physical) and biotic (living) components of a system. UN (1997) defined that the environment can be defined as the collective set of external factors that impact the growth, development, and survival of living organisms. Noman (2015) Noman's definition of environment states that it encompasses all the conditions required for an organism's survival and life processes. This includes both abiotic (physical or non-living) and biotic (living) factors. Environmental studies offer a framework to comprehend the earth's environment and the effect of human activities on it. Cambridge Dictionary (2022) define that the environment is characterized as the set of conditions in which one lives or works, and the extent to which it affects their emotions or ability to work effectively.

According to NASA (2015), climate refers to the long-term statistics of weather patterns. Temperature, precipitation, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and wind are some important factors that define climate. Most studies on climate use temperature and/or precipitation and/or carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is a modification in the usual weather found in a location, such as a change in the amount of annual rainfall or temperature during a specific season. Climate change also involves alterations in Earth's climate, including changes in typical temperatures and precipitation patterns. Weather can undergo rapid shifts in just a few hours, whereas climate transformations occur over

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extended periods, spanning hundreds or even millions of years. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2016), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) offered different definitions of climate change. Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon that significantly impacts natural systems, human societies, and global economies. The increasing levels of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere cause the Earth's temperature to rise, leading to alterations in weather patterns, global warming, droughts, floods, sea level rise, and other consequences that affect both natural systems and human societies. This study focuses on climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall and CO2 emissions as important factors of the environment and climate variability.

2.1.3 The unemployment

The economically active population, as defined by the ILO, includes all individuals of any gender who contribute to the labor supply for the production of economic goods and services during a designated period of time. The labor force, also known as the currently active population, includes all individuals above a minimum age requirement who, during a specified short-term period of either one day or one week, meet the criteria to be classified as either employed or unemployed. The unemployed include all individuals above the age requirement for calculating the economically active population, who, during the specified time reference period, were not involved in any paid employment or self-employment as per the international definition of employment. They must also be available for work and have actively sought paid employment or self-employment within a specific recent period (ILO, 2003).

The overall unemployment rate is a common gauge used to measure a country's untapped labor force. Unemployment is considered an unfavorable circumstance when employment is the desired state for individuals in the labor force (formerly known as the economically active population). Nevertheless, short-term unemployment can be necessary to adapt to economic fluctuations. Additionally, unemployment rates for specific groups,

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groups of workers and sectors prone to joblessness. Although the unemployment rate is generally considered the most informative labor market indicator, reflecting the overall performance of the labor market and the economy, it should not be seen as a measure of economic hardship or well-being. Computed according to internationally recommended standards, the unemployment rate merely signifies the proportion of the labor force without work but actively seeking employment. It does not provide insights into the economic resources of unemployed workers or their family members. As a result, its use should be restricted to measuring labor utilization and indicating a failure to find employment. Additional indicators, including those related to income, are required to assess economic hardship. This definition is widely accepted by economists worldwide. Unemployment refers to the circumstance where individuals who are willing and able to work are unable to secure suitable employment. Several definitions of unemployment exist, including those from reputable organizations. The International Labor Organization (ILO) defines unemployment as the number of people of working age who are without work but who are available for and actively seeking employment.

Unemployment, as defined by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), refers to the percentage of the labor force actively seeking employment and available to start work but currently without a job (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015). Unemployment is the percentage of the labor force that is available for and actively seeking employment but currently without work (OECD, 2022). Overall, unemployment is an important economic indicator that reflects the health of the labor market and the overall level of economic activity. Governments and other organizations use a range of policies and programs to address unemployment, such as job training programs, job search assistance, and economic stimulus measures. This study uses the concept of unemployment from the International Labor Organization and other economic experts to clearly define unemployment as the number of people of working age who are without work but who are available for and actively seeking employment. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force (which includes

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both employed and unemployed people) and then multiplying by 100 to express it as a

percentage.

2.2 Research gap and contributions

Findings from this dissertation are expected to contribute to existing literature on the international migrations on the following grounds.

In short, theories about migration still focus heavily on the economic aspect, in the context of the authors not fully analyzing the development of the current world economy. In addition, recent migration theories have begun to pay more attention to environmental issues or climate change affecting livelihoods or human migration behavior from a macro perspective. international. However, theories have not yet deeply explored specific factors, impacts or long-term responses to international migration.

While the scientific foundations of migration theories still find their roots in the early periods of industrial revolutions, as seen in the works of scholars like Ravenstein (1885), Lee (1966), and Lewis (1954), the theories themselves tend to maintain relative simplicity. They primarily delineate and underscore labor movement driven by economic factors and the process of industrialization, as exemplified by Lewis (1954) and Harris-Todaro (1970). However, in contrast to these historical theories, recent migration theories, including the New Economics of Labor Migration and World Systems Theory, have steered researchers toward giving greater importance to environmental factors as significant determinants of migration.

Despite this shift in focus and acknowledgment of the crucial environmental dimension of migration, a comprehensive and systematic analysis and synthesis of these factors are yet to materialize. While Black and colleagues (2011) mention the environment as an important factor affecting migration, including food security, water resources, energy, the greenhouse effect, global warming, climate change, and harshness of other environmental factors. Besides, Harris - Todaro (1970) believes that the movement of

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in the structure of the labor market at the places of origin and destination, leading to labor market problems such as unemployment.

At the same concerns, the sustainable livelihood theoretical framework argues that environmental factors and other socio-economic factors have an impact on the livelihoods and employment of people in countries. This confirms the causes and effects factors between climate change and migration, migration and unemployment or climate change and the labor market. This dissertation endeavors to partially contribute to the comprehension of how environmental migration or climate change can impact to migration and the labor market through a myriad of intricate relationships.

2.2.1 Climate change and migration

The literature review helps us identify research gap on this relationship between migration, climate change and unemployment which warrants for this study to be conducted. These gaps can be summarized as follows. First, despite a growing body of research, the climate change–migration nexus and its underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Different theories offer explanations as to why and how climate change influences migration decisions. Aside from disrupting livelihoods, especially of agricultural households that largely depend on environmental conditions for their income generation, climate change can affect migration through several other channels. Suckall et al. (2016) concludes that climate change is likely to increase barriers to migration rather than increasing migration. Meanwhile, many empirical studies show a positive relationship which illustrated that climate change or environmental factors lead to an increasing of migration (Backhaus et al. 2016; Nawrotski & Bakhtsiyarava, 2016; Mastrorillo et al. 2016; Dallman and Millock, 2017; Chen and Mueller, 2018; Sloat et al. 2020). Exposure to climate changes may have very different implications in different areas, depending, for example, on local agricultural conditions, adaptation options and possibilities for income diversification. At the same time, climatic and environmental factors are not independent, but may be correlated with one another (both across time and space). Data on climatic migration and planned relocation have improved in recent years, as an increasing number

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of studies have been conducted in affected areas. The research databases listed above are important sources providing an overview of the existing available information. However, comparable quantitative, longitudinal, disaggregated and georeferenced data are needed to assess how different forms of mobility can be a beneficial adaptation strategy and what potential risks need to be minimized. In addition, the Asian countries are different. The vulnerability and impact of climate change is a major concern to the Asian region. Countries in this region are highly vulnerable to environmental degradation and climate change as a large proportion of migration and economic activity. Changes in the climate (for example, warming temperatures, heat waves, declining rain fall, and carbon dioxide emissions) are part of push factors because they lead to a deterioration of the environment.

2.2.2 Migration and unemployment

Most international migrant cross borders in search of economic betterment which reach different conclusions about migrant impacts and have different implications for labor market relating the unemployment. Additional areas of concern the role and management of migrant labor in the region and the degree to which freedom of association and unionization has an impact upon productivity and the promotion of social as well as economic development. Meanwhile, many economists focus on the EU or OECD countries but do not pay attention carefully to developing areas such as Sub-Sahara, Asia clearly such as EU & OECD: Nica (2015); Czaika & Parsons (2017); Kilic et al. (2019); Guzi & Mikula (2022); Beyer et al. (2022) ; schneider (2022), Countries groups: Arisman & Yaja (2020); Mueller et al. (2018); Single country: Islam & Khan (2015); Awad et al. (2015); Latif (2015); Alkhateeb et al. (2018); Espinosa & Emparanza (2019); AboElsoud et al. (2020); Thomas (2019); Mohler et al. (2018); Panthamit (2017); Monte et al. (2018). This dissertation especially discovers the relationship between international migration and unemployment in Asian countries with the newest data by suitable methods to test the data.

2.2.3 Climate change and unemployment

Impacts of the environment, labor market issues have been widely discussed by

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focus on the European countries, the United States, and the OECD countries. The Asian region, a new economic hub for the global economy, appears to have been largely ignored in current literature. The economic factors still are the main subject of findings that there are not many studies following the direct impacts of climate change on unemployment, especially in Asian countries with the latest data. The level of economic growth in the Asian countries varies significantly among members. This level is also very different in comparison with other countries in the world. These impacts are also likely to be different in the short run and the long run because the economy and labor demand can adjust to the increase in labor supply and demand. Agba et al. (2021) demonstrated that adaptation to climate change provides opportunities that support human existence but also poses limitations. Developed countries such as the United States of America, Europe, China, and India are capitalizing on the advantages presented by climate change adaptation, particularly in green technology, energy, and agriculture. However, African countries, which are more vulnerable to climate change, are displaying less commitment and not doing enough to take advantage of these opportunities. In Africa, the worsening negative impacts of climate change are causing livelihoods to deteriorate and job opportunities to vanish, resulting in conflicts and upheavals. To address these interconnected challenges of climate change, unemployment, and livelihood disruptions, governments across the continent seek policy options that can effectively promote mitigation and adaptation measures while fostering new employment opportunities and sustainable livelihood patterns. Dasgupta et al. (2021) discovered distinct regional and sectoral empirical estimated reduction factors (ERFs) for labor supply. Labor efficiency is already negatively impacted by current climate conditions, especially in tropical countries. If global warming reaches 3.0°C, future climate change will lead to an 18 percentages point reduction in total labor for low-exposure sectors (range: -48.8 to 5.3) and a 24.8 percentage point reduction in high-exposure sectors. Projections suggest that in low-exposure sectors, reductions in labor productivity are estimated to be 25.9 percentage points (-48.8 to 2.7) in Africa, 18.6 percentage points (-33.6 to 5.3) in Asia, and 10.4 percentage points (-35.0 to 2.6) in the

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