Bản tin kinh tế vi mô số 6 pptx
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Kinh tế thế giới: Đang đối mặt với nhiều rủi ro lớn về mất cân đối vó mô và tài
chính toàn cầu; nguy cơ khủng hoảng kép gắn với suy thoái kinh tế.
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Kinh tế Mỹ: Vẫn trong tình trạng khó khăn kéo dài, mặc dù vào cuối năm
2011 đã xuất hiện một số dấu hiệu tích cực.
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Kinh tế khối EU: Chính phủ các nước chưa thể thống nhất với nhau về phương
án tối ưu khắc phục khủng hoảng nợ công. Dấu hiệu suy thoái kinh tế từ quý
IV/2011.
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Kinh tế Nhật Bản: Nợ công tăng cao đi kèm với xu hướng lên giá đồng nội tệ
đã hạn chế nỗ lực khôi phục lại đà tăng trưởng kinh tế.
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Kinh tế Trung Quốc: Tăng trưởng kinh tế chững lại và đang trên đà giảm tốc,
nguy cơ khủng hoảng nợ do chính quyền các tỉnh vay quá nhiều, thò trường bất
động sản đi vào chu kỳ suy thoái.
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Kinh tế khu vực NICs châu Á: Mặc dù duy trì ổn đònh kinh tế vó mô tương đối
vững chắc nhưng tăng trưởng kinh tế đang trên đà suy giảm v.v
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Kinh tế tăng trưởng khá, cán cân thanh toán thặng dư và thâm hụt ngân sách
so với GDP giảm.
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Lạm phát thực tế và kỳ vọng lạm phát đã có xu hướng giảm tốc rõ nét.
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Tuy nhiên, lạm phát vẫn cao đi liền với lãi suất cho vay cao và đã xuất hiện
những khó khăn trên thò trường lao động.
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Cần tiếp tục kiên đònh thực hiện gói giải pháp kiềm chế lạm phát và bình ổn
kinh tế vó mô, và thực hiện một cách nhanh chóng và hiệu quả quá trình tái cơ
cấu nền kinh tế.
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Dự án “Hỗ trợ nâng cao năng lực tham mưu, thẩm tra và giám sát chính sách kinh
tế vó mô” do Ủy ban Kinh tế của Quốc hội chủ trì thực hiện với sự hỗ trợ kỹ thuật
của Chương trình Phát triển Liên hợp quốc (UNDP). Mục tiêu của Dự án là nâng
cao năng lực các cơ quan tham mưu, thẩm tra và giám sát chính sách kinh tế vó
mô thông qua các hoạt động: (i) tập huấn/đào tạo nâng cao năng lực; (ii) thực hiện
nghiên cứu, đối thoại chính sách về những vấn đề kinh tế vó mô; (iii) tăng cường
và thể chế hóa cơ chế phối hợp, hợp tác giữa các cơ quan thụ hưởng dự án, bao
gồm Ủy ban Kinh tế của Quốc hội, Văn phòng Trung ương Đảng, Văn phòng Chính
phủ, Văn phòng Chủ tòch nước, Ủy ban Giám sát Tài chính Quốc gia và Viện Khoa
học Xã hội Việt Nam.
Hỗ trợ thực hiện Dự án là mạng lưới các Viện, Trường, Trung tâm nghiên cứu kinh
tế, bao gồm Viện Kinh tế Việt Nam, Trung tâm Phân tích và Dự báo (thuộc Viện
Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam), Viện Nghiên cứu Quản lý kinh tế Trung ương (CIEM),
Đại học Kinh tế (thuộc Đại học Quốc gia Hà Nội), Đại học Kinh tế quốc dân Hà
Nội, Trung tâm Thông tin và Dự báo Kinh tế - Xã hội quốc gia (thuộc Bộ Kế hoạch
và Đầu tư), Trung tâm Nghiên cứu chính sách và phát triển (DEPOCEN – Trung
tâm nghiên cứu độc lập) và Nhóm tư vấn chính sách kinh tế vó mô (MAG).
Bản tin Kinh tế vó mô là một trong những sản phẩm quan trọng của Dự án, được
thực hiện trong khuôn khổ phối hợp giữa Dự án và Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt
Nam với mục đích cung cấp những phân tích, đánh giá tóm lược về xu hướng và
những động thái chủ yếu của kinh tế thế giới cũng như cập nhật tình hình kinh
tế vó mô Việt Nam. Đối tượng phục vụ chính của Bản tin Kinh tế vó mô là các cơ
quan thụ hưởng Dự án, các Đại biểu Quốc hội, nhà nghiên cứu, hoạch đònh
chính sách kinh tế vó mô.
GIỚI THIỆU
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giới (WB), Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF), và Cục Dữ trữ Liên bang Mỹ (FED).
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(WB), Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF), Tổ chức Hợp tác và Phát triển Kinh tế (OECD).
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A6/`:6<W/16B`F3KB2<@\W86<M7=6BW1:/W;6:3]1B`/6</WAX<N;5@/`;EB/KAC/d
EB/KA86/PBX/T1073NA9/d@\W1/`7A673N;1B`/;5/d;61<M;5;5673N=E36[7;6\;5
C/O;A6/K=6[;@<C[_7;/S:)63M:C/d<X<_9/dA/_1X<N;5A73MB1\W11B`/9B]9BWA
[`)6/_7!/;A6/_;5C/d86B`;56</`;5;[W1<M;516/MBlB8673K;16<A?73P;C<W;5
261</E 1+H<+X6
O612/I6,2/E63261</E>R57G-=X+&:=60#=7E-6+L5>+\<:2/J6>7P60
Nguồn: Tổng hợp của Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) dựa theo dữ liệu từ Ngân hàng Thế
giới (WB), Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF), và Ngân hàng TW Trung Quốc.
261</E&:=60#=7E-
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2\A/d786</`;C/];59/7;[W1<M;5C\[WA A?73NBAF`.3M;16\_;586</_;57/`:
:/W;6A6ZA?\[d;5A73K=ABW186<_86/S;#6/NA/`;X/]=6/`7A6\W1673N;16U;6
@/_16A/d786<_/6\[_;5A[_7A6B_1X/PFA/S;5A?\[`;5C[_71/_1;<N72B;5
Nới lỏng chính sách tiền tệ, 9/]7@B/KA1[0/`;X\[W12BFA?V[`:\_1C/d
2BFA?V16U;6@/_16A73L;A3Ni@73MB9<`;5jX3PA6B_1X/PFA/S;5A?\[`;587;6A3K
Quốc hội thông qua dự luật tăng thuế khẩn cấp trong tháng 11, 16<=63_=
A/S;51/_19</W7A6B3KA6B;6/N=A?<;5;/S:A[_7;6/R:X/`:0/`<;5B<L;C<K;
16<A/_7A673KA1/_186BC\W10ZA/d;=6/_0[`7A6/`:6<W/X<N;5X/KA@<_;5A6/L;7\]/
A6/_;5&B<K16<N7#6/NA/`;X/]A6<M;5>B/2\WA6/`<;5/M;@/_160<P@B;5
9/L;A6\_A/d786<_/1<_A<P;5A?Z57/_93M;A[_7AF`.3M;6[;AF`
*(X3PA/d7A?[W16<1/_16</WAX<N;5A/_7A673KAA</d;273N;1/_186BC\W1A6/`:6<W/
C/d6<OA?[W1/_12</;6;5673N=A?<;5;\[_1X<K7=6<_C[_7AV;6A?/W;5X<L;5.3M;
A/S;557/_
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87;6A3K;6\/d;&B<K1(7;5/=<?3I/d7!</;)?B;5&B<K1C/d<L;5 <M;5
)?B;5 &B<K1X/] @BF57/`: ?/KA :/W;6 A?<;5 ;/S: ;6\;5 AF`93N A6/KA
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:<NA=6/L;86<M;5;6<`9B<L;5C<K;X/LBA\?/;\[_1;5</d71B`/86BC\W1#@1<_
A63M:X73LB873N;A6B/N;9[W7>B/FA?[`9/W7X/LBA\C/d<A6ZA?\[d;5;<N7XZ/57B_=
A/S;5A63M:C73N19/d:16<;3L;87;6A3K3M;1/W;6X<_1/_;1/M;C/];59/71B`/
86BC\W1#@16/MBr9B<M;[`A?/W;5A6/_7A6/T;52\W9[_;X783d:C[_7A6/T;52\
;5/M;@/_16C/dAF`93N9/W:=6/_AA6/K=1B];5;6\AF`93N;[W1<M;5>B<K157/@<C[_7
%A6/K=6U;6:<M7A?\[d;587;6A3KCY:<MA\[;5X<K7<P;XZ;6C/dC\];516/Q1
1B`/86BC\W1#@16/MBrA?<;5;/S:9/dX73LB873N;1/L;16<@\W=6BW16<L7
X/dA/S;5A?\[`;587;6A3KA?<;5;/S:
261</E31=>UP- ;-1+G=l
O612/I6,2/E63261</E>R57G-=X+ 1+H<+X66+L5>+\<:2/J6>7P60
Nguồn: Tổng hợp của Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) dựa theo dữ liệu từ Ngân hàng Thế
giới (WB), Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF), và Ngân hàng TW Nhật Bản (BOJ).
k & &d(h!b%!d#'*l(
Jor#$g)'po#l#$#m#!Jo)""J*)H")'+br"(r)n#(rDFl
'
k* &d'k#'!d!A
Nguồn: Tổng hợp của Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) dựa theo dữ liệu từ Ngân hàng Thế
giới (WB), Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF), Ngân hàng TW các nước khu vực MENA.
O612/I6,2/E63261</E>R57G-=X+31=>UP-&:=60C7G60>+\+K-"12 <:760
6+L5>+\<:2/J6>7P60
73K;X<N;516U;6A?ZE/]6<N7A/W7/Q1%67)?B;5I<M;5;/S:X/]C/dX/;5
A6/_16A6\_1;3L;87;6A3KA63K57[_71B];5;6\87;6A3K86BC\W1"/T12BdC/NFC/O;
1<_;6\];5>B<K157/A?[`A6/d;6X73P:@/_;51B`/86BC\W1I73P;6V;69/d)6<P#6Y
FdABF=6/`7A?/`7>B/A?/N;X<N;5X/KA9[_;6<L7A6/_;5;6\;5C/O;;<O9\W186/Q1
=6BW186<_86/S;C/d6\[_;5A[_7CZA?U2/O;X/LB86BC\W1C[_716U;6@/_161/`71/_16
1[1/KBA?<;59Y;6C\W1A/d716U;6;5/M;6/d;5A73K=ABW1X/PF;6/;6>B/_A?V;6
A\;6/M;6</_CCe2/O;A[_783KA>B/`A/S;5A?\[`;5X/WAA?3M;A?<;5;/S:
3M;1/W;6X<_C/K;X3L86B`;56</`;51B`/(F?7/?/;CCeX/]C/dX/;5/`;6
6\[`;5E/KBX3K;87;6A3K86BC\W1C/dA63K57[_7+3LA<P;5A63PA/S;5A?\[`;587;6
A3K1B`/A</d;16/MB%67C/O;X/WA:\_1f1/<6[;;673LB@<C[_7:\_11B`/
;/S:9/d2<;6\];5;5BF3M;;6/M;16B`F3KB@/B7A73K;A?V;6;6/KAA63P
6<_/87;6A3KA</d;16/MB%67X/]1<_0\[_1A73K;A<9[_;77;6/M;A/d7[`;\[_1;5</d7
A?[`C3L16/MB%679/d:C73N1;5/dF1/d;5;673LB6[;C/d777X/LBA\;\[_1;5</d7
C/d<16/MB%67;673LB
O612/I6,2/E63261</E>R57G-=X+ ;-1+G=l6+L5>+\<:2/J6>7P60
Nguồn: Tổng hợp của Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) theo dữ liệu từ Ngân hàng Thế giới
(WB), Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế (IMF), và Ngân hàng TW của các nền kinh tế NICs.
261</E-1+G="12&:=60C7G60
k & &d(h!b%!d#'*l(
Jor#$g)'po#l#$#m#!Jo)""J*)H")'+br"(r)n#(rDFl
'k* &d'k#'!d!A
Trong quý IV/2011, kinh tế vó mô tiếp tục ổn đònh. Cả bốn chỉ số vó mô
tổng hợp thường được dùng để đánh giá sức khỏe của nền kinh tế vó mô: (i)
tăng trưởng kinh tế; (ii) lạm phát; (iii) cán cân thanh toán; và (iv) lao động
và việc làm, đều được cải thiện trong quý IV/2011. Tuy lạm phát thực tế
vẫn còn ở mức cao song kỳ vọng lạm phát đã giảm đáng kể. Tuy nhiên các
kết quả đạt được còn chưa vững chắc và vẫn còn chứa đựng những rủi ro
tiềm ẩn.
I73P:@/_;5;<P70/NA;6/KA1B`/;3L;87;6A3KA?<;5;/S:9/dA6/M:6BWAA6\[;5
:/W7X/]57/`:X/_;583P5<_==6/L;A/W<;3M;A6/T;52\A?<;51/_;1/M;A6/;6A</_;
C/d>B/X<_57B_=1/`7A673N;2\WA?\];5</W76<K7>B<K157/<P;XZ;6A6ZA?\[d;5;5</W7
6<K7+73N12BFA?VC/d1B`;51<KA/S;5A?\[`;5A?<;5;<M;5;5673N=1B];59/dX73P:
@/_;5>B/;A?<W;557B_=<P;XZ;687;6A3KCY:<MC/dX/`:0/`</;@7;6E/]6<N7
(<;52/KB/K;9[_;;6/KA1B`/;/S:9/d;6\];5X73LB16c;616U;6@/_16CY:<M
>B/;A?<W;5X/T1073NA9/d5<_757/`7=6/_=57/`:A<P;51/LBC/d0V;6<P;87;6A3KCY
:<M#56Z>BF3KA#&%;5/dF1B];5;6\1/_1XZ;66\[_;59[_;C3L
A/_71[1/KB;3L;87;6A3K;6/R:;/M;51/<673NB>B/`C/d>B/X<_A/_1X<N;593M;A<P;5
1B;5A?<;5A?B;5C/d2/d76/W;X/]X\[W1<N7;56Z9/L;A6\_/;16/K=6/d;6
)?B;5\[;5I/`;586</_A6/_;5A6<M;5>B/A?3M;1[@[`X<_&B<K1
6<N786<_/-A/W7 Fd6<W=A6\_X/]A63P163K6<_/A6/d;6;673N:CBWA?<W;5A/M:
1B`/ 3K6</W16=6/_AA?73P; 7;6A3K-/]6<N7C/d;/S:#56Z
>BF3KA1B`/&B<K16<N7C3L 3K6</W16=6/_AA?73P; 7;6A3K-/]6<N7;/S:X/TA
?/:BW1A73MBA<P;5>B/_A16<;/S:9/d\BA73M;873L:163K9/W:=6/_A<P;XZ;6
87;6A3KCY:<M2BFA?VA/S;5A?\[`;5[`:\_16[W=9F_5/Q;C[_7X<P7:[_7:<M6V;6
A/S;5A?\[`;5C/d1[1/KB9/W7;3L;87;6A3K;/M;51/<16/KA9\[W;5673NB>B/`C/d@\_1
1/W;6A?/;6BWA63PA<P;5@/`;=6/P:A?<;5;\[_1%A/S;586</`;5
87:;5/W16EB/KA86/PBA/S;5;6/N=@73MB86</`;5A?3M;A<P;587:
;5/W16EB/KA86/PB0<N7167;5/M;@/_16=6/K;X/KB2\[_7%A<P;5;5B<L;
C<K;X/LBA\=6/_AA?73P;E/]6<N786</`;5%C/d16c@<K57/_A73MB2Bd;5A/S;5
2\[_7
(/;5;/S:+73NA#/:A73K=ABW1=6/`7X<K7:/TAC[_7;673LBA6/_16A6\_1;<P7
0/NA;6/KA9/d9/]7@B/KA16<C/F=6<P073K;C/O;1<d;[`:\_11/<A?<;50<K71/`;6
A6/;686</`;1B`/63NA6<K;5;5/M;6/d;51<d;1/S;5A6/^;5C/d;[WE/KB1<_EB6\[_;5
57/A/S;52/O;X3K;6</WAX<N;5@/`;EB/KA87;62</;61B`/;673LB2</;6;5673N=
5/T=86<_86/S;A?/L:A?<W;5#6\];52/KB673NB86<_86/S;1B`/A6ZA?\[d;59/<X<N;5
1B];51<_EB6\[_;5;5/dF1/d;5?<];3_AX/T1073NA9/d@<K;5\[d7X/S;58F_A6/KA;5673N=
1<_EB6\[_;557/A/S;5
Tăng trưởng kinh tế của Việt Nam đang dần hồi phục, một phần nhờ vào
sự hồi phục mạnh của tăng trưởng xuất khẩu và tiêu dùng cuối cùng của
dân cư. Tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ của khu vực nông, lâm nghiệp và thủy sản
trong quý IV và cả năm 2011 tiếp tục được ghi nhận đóng vai trò giảm sốc
khá hiệu quả cho nền kinh tế trong thời kỳ kinh tế khó khăn.
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;
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EB<K;516c1<d;%A?<;5;/S:2<6U;6=6B`A/N=A?B;5\BA73M;
16<;673N:CBW873L:163K9/W:=6/_AC/d<P;XZ;687;6A3KCY:<M#6\C/NF9/d673NB
>B/`@\`2BW;5C<K;1B];5X\[W11/`7A673N;C[_7@\W57/`:X/_;583P1B`/16c@<K$'
A\d:\_1;/S:EB<K;5A?<;5;/S:
-3_AA\d5<_1X<NA<P;51/LB83KA>B/`A/S;5A?\[`;587;6A3K86/`>B/;;/S:1B`/
+73NA#/:X\[W12/O;2/QA16B`F3KB0[`7X<N;59\W1A/S;5A?\[`;51B`/F3KBA<KEB/KA
86/PBA?<;5X<_EB/KA86/PB;<M;5;5673N=X/WA83KA>B/`63KA@\_1/K;A\[W;5C/dF3KB
A<KA/S;5A?\[`;5A73MB2Bd;51B<K71Bd;5X/T1073NA9/d1B`/86BC\W12/M;1\#6V;A\d
5<_1X<N1[1/KB;5/d;6:/T12BdA/S;5A?\[`;5[`86BC\W11<M;5;5673N=C/dE/MF2\W;5
X<_;55<_=X73P:=6/L;A?/S:C/d<A/S;5A?\[`;516B;51B];5;6\86BC\W1
2Z16CBWX<_;55<_=X73P:=6/L;A?/S:C/d<A/S;5A?\[`;516B;5X3LB57/`:
A<K1A?<;5;/S:@<;586BC\W1;<M;59/M:;5673N=C/dA6B`F@/`;C[_7:\_1
A/S;5A?\[`;586</`;5:\_11/<;6/KAA?<;5C<d;5;/S:A?[`9/W7X/MFC/dX<_;5
5<_=A[_7X73P:=6/L;A?/S:C/d<A/S;5A?\[`;587;6A3KX\[W11<79/d:<NAX73P:
@/_;5X<_;5C/7A?<d57/`:@<K186/_673NB>B/`16<;3L;87;6A3K2<X<_;55<_=C/d<
A/S;5A?\[`;5873L:163K9/W:=6/_AA6<M;5>B/873L:163K@\W57/A/S;557/_1B`/1/_1
:/TA6/d;59\[;5A6\W1hA6\W1=6/P:C/d0/`<X/`:A6B;6/N=16<;5\[d72/M;[`
86BC\W1;<M;5A6<M; 3KA>B/`;/dF1<_;5BF3M;;6/M;>B/;A?<W;59/d@\WX73LB6/d;6
8Z=A6[d7C/d>BF3KA973NA1B`/6U;6=6B`A?<;5;<O9\W1A/N=A?B;5=6/M;0<PC/d@\`
2BW;5673NB>B/`6[;;5B<L;9\W1>B<K157/X3P6<OA?[W86BC\W1;/dF1B];5;6\;6[d
C/d<57/_1/`EB/KA86/PB1/_1:/TA6/d;5;<M;5;5673N=A?3M;A6ZA?\[d;5A63K57[_7A/S;5
:/W;6A?<;5;/S:
Nguồn: Tính toán của nhóm nghiên cứu Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) dựa trên dữ liệu
của Tổng cục Thống kê, 2011.
O612/E6Q7H60<+L60<:UTX603261</E-=X+(2/H< +5<:7606+L5
k & &d(h!b%!d#'*l(
Jor#$g)'po#l#$#m#!Jo)""J*)H")'+br"(r)n#(rDFl
'k* &d'k#'!d!A
Trong năm 2011, không chỉ lạm phát chung mà còn cả lạm phát cơ bản của
nền kinh tế Việt Nam cũng ở mức rất cao, với nguyên nhân liên quan từ
tổng cầu do thực hiện chính sách tiền tệ và chính sách tài khoá nới lỏng
trong nhiều năm, cũng như từ tổng cung do những yếu kém nội tại bắt
n
guồn từ bản thân cơ cấu nền kinh tế và mô hình tăng trưởng.
"/T12BdA?<;5>BF_+AF`93N9/W:=6/_AA63<A6/_;5C/d9/W:=6/_AA63<;/S:
1B`/;3L;87;6A3K+73NA#/:X3LBA73K=ABW1073K;X<N;5AU161\W1A63<EB6\[_;5
57/`:A<K1;6\;516<X3K;A6[d7X73P:1B<K71B`/;/S:A6VAF`93N9/W:=6/_A
16B;5C/O;X\[W1567;6/N;[`:\_1A\[;5X<K71/<@<C[_7A6/_;5;/S:
A?\[_1C/d16c@<K57/_A73MB2Bd;50V;6>B/M;;/S:A/S;5@<C[_70V;6
>B/M;;/S:"\_1A/S;5X\[W1>BF16B`F3KB16<@\W57/A/S;51B`/16c
@<K57/_;6<_:A6\W1=6/P:A73K=X3K;9/d;6<_:;6/d[`C/dC/NA973NBE/MF2\W;583K
A73K=9/d;6<_:/S;B<K;5;5</d757/XV;6;6<_:57/<A6<M;5;6<_:9\[;5A6\W1C/d
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Tổng hợp của Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) theo dữ liệu ước thực hiện trong năm 2011 từ
Tổng cục Thống kê (GSO).
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Thò trường lao động Việt Nam có diễn biến khá tích cực với tỷ lệ thất nghiệp
thấp trong năm 2011. Tuy nhiên Việt Nam vẫn phải đối mặt với những
thách thức về mất cân đối cung cầu lao động liên quan tới hình thức phân
bổ thò trường lao động theo trình độ, ngành nghề đặc thù, loại hình doanh
nghiệp, hay cơ cấu vùng miền. Những thách thức mới về duy trì việc làm
cũng đã nảy sinh do bắt đầu xuất hiện tình trạng thiếu đơn hàng xuất khẩu
và hủy đơn hàng đã ký bởi chính các đối tác nước ngoài do chòu tác động
tiêu cực của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính châu Âu đang lan rộng và nền kinh
tế Mỹ vẫn tiếp tục gặp nhiều khó khăn.
Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp và thiếu việc làm thấp, đồng thời đang có dấu hiệu
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1B`/+73N; 6</6<W1-/]6<N7+73NA#/:dự báo tỷ lệ lạm phát của nền kinh tế
Việt Nam năm 2012 sẽ giảm mạnh xuống mức dự báo điểm là 9,7% đồng
thời có khả năng sẽ biến thiên trong khoảng dự báo từ A[_7C[_7
X<NA7;1/NF86</`;5
Nguồn: Tính toán của nhóm nghiên cứu Viện Khoa học Xã hội Việt Nam (VASS) dựa trên mô hình
kinh tế lượng dự báo tăng trưởng kinh tế quý ở Việt Nam, cập nhật ngày 21/1/2012.
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