Tải bản đầy đủ (.pdf) (90 trang)

Indonesia and Climate Charge: Current Status and Policies docx

Bạn đang xem bản rút gọn của tài liệu. Xem và tải ngay bản đầy đủ của tài liệu tại đây (6.97 MB, 90 trang )

Suggestion for citation :
PEACE. 2007. Indonesia and Climate Charge: Current Status and Policies.





(i)
Kateren 1A

,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRDVVHVVWKHVWDWXVDQGWUHQGVRISHUFDSLWDDQGLQWHQVLW\RIHPLVVLRQV
LQ DGGLWLRQ WR WKH DEVROXWH HPLVVLRQ OHYHOV  ,Q VRPH FDVHV DOWKRXJK HPLVVLRQ
LQWHQVLW\LVLPSURYLQJWRWDOHPLVVLRQVFRXOGVWLOOLQFUHDVHZKHQWKHHFRQRP\JURZV
IDVWHU WKDQ WKH LPSURYHPHQW LQ HPLVVLRQ LQWHQVLW\  ,Q WKH FDVH RI ,QGRQHVLD WKH
DYHUDJH LPSURYHPHQW RI HPLVVLRQ LQWHQVLW\ IURP  WR  LV  SHUFHQW  %XW
GXULQJWKHVDPHSHULRGWKHHFRQRP\ZDVJURZLQJRQDYHUDJHE\DOPRVWSHUFHQW
3XVDW,QIRUPDVL(QHUJLDQGSHUFDSLWDHPLVVLRQVLQFUHDVHGE\DERXW
SHUFHQW7RWDO&2HPLVVLRQVLQWKHVDPHSHULRGLQFUHDVHGRQDYHUDJHE\SHUFHQW
SHU \HDU 8QOHVV HPLVVLRQVLQWHQVLW\ LPSURYHV IDVWHUWKDQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK WRWDO
HPLVVLRQVZLOOFRQWLQXHWRULVH
3HUFDSLWDHPLVVLRQVLQ,QGRQHVLD·VHQHUJ\VHFWRUUDQJHEHWZHHQDQGWRQV
SHUSHUVRQSHU\HDU7KLVILJXUHLVDGPLWWHGO\IDUEHORZJOREDODYHUDJHSHUFDSLWD
HPLVVLRQVDWWRQVSHUSHUVRQSHU\HDU%XWWKHILJXUHKDVLQFUHDVHGE\DOPRVW
SHUFHQWVLQFHRUSHUFHQWVLQFH:RUOG5HVRXUFH,QVWLWXWH0RUH
WKDQKDOI²DERXWSHUFHQW²RIDQQXDO&2HPLVVLRQVZDVGXHWREXUQLQJRIRLO



,($·VWRWDOHPLVVLRQURZQRDQGWRWDOHPLVVLRQEDVHGRQIXHODQGVHFWRUDOHPLVVLRQURZQRDQGDUH
VOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQW:HDVVXPHGWKLVLVEHFDXVH,($LQFOXGHIXJLWLYHHPLVVLRQDQGRWKHUIXHOFRPEXVWLRQRQWKHLU


FDOFXODWLRQRQWRWDOHPLVVLRQURZQRZKLOHWRWDOHPLVVLRQEDVHGRQIXHODQGVHFWRUDOHPLVVLRQGRQRWWDNH
WKRVHHPLVVLRQLQWRDFFRXQW

7KHODWHVWHQHUJ\VWDWLVWLFIURP(QHUJ\,QIRUPDWLRQ&HQWHU7KH0LQLVWU\RI(QHUJ\DQG0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHVGDWD
LVDYDLODEOH3,(EXWZHXVHGDWDWRPDNHLWFRPSDUDEOHWRWKRVHRIWKH,($
IROORZHG E\ FRDO  SHUFHQW DQG QDWXUDO JDV  SHUFHQW 2QWKHRWKHU KDQG
HPLVVLRQVLQWHQVLW\²XVXDOO\ H[SUHVVHG DVHPLVVLRQVSHUGROODU RI *URVV 'RPHVWLF
3URGXFWV*'3UDQJHVEHWZHHQDQGW&2SHUPLOOLRQGROODUVRI*'3

)LJXUH,QGRQHVLDQSHUFDSLWDDQGLQWHQVLW\RIHPLVVLRQVIRUWKHSHULRGRI
,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QHUJ\$JHQF\
Page 20 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies


7KLVSDSHULVEDVHGRQDQDVVLJQPHQWIURP'),'DQGWKH:RUOG%DQNLQ
FRQVXOWDWLRQZLWKWKH 6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI (QYLURQPHQW LQ,QGRQHVLDWR FRPSLOHGDWD
DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW UHIOHFWV WKH PRVW XSGDWHG VWDWH RI NQRZOHGJH RI &OLPDWH
&KDQJHLQ,QGRQHVLD
7KHGRFXPHQWLVDV\QWKHVLVRIH[LVWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQGRHVQRWSUHVHQWQHZGDWDDQG
LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ EDVHG RQ RIILFLDO *RYHUQPHQW RI ,QGRQHVLD VWDWLVWLFV ,WGRHVQRW
VHUYHDVDQRIILFLDOSXEOLFDWLRQIURPWKH6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWQRUGRHVLW
UHSUHVHQWWKHYLHZVRI'),'RUWKH:RUOG%DQN5DWKHULWLVDSURIHVVLRQDOGHVN
UHYLHZRIH[LVWLQJSXEOLVKHGLQIRUPDWLRQDQGLQFOXGLQJWZRVSHFLDOLVWFRQVXOWDWLRQ
HYHQWV FRPPLVVLRQHG IURP WKH FRQVXOWDQW373HODQJL (QHUJL $EDGL &LWUD (QYLUR
3($&(
7KH WHDP PHPEHUV IRU WKH SDSHU DUH $JXV 3 6DUL HG 5L]ND (O\]D 6DUL 5LD 1
%XWDUEXWDU0DUWKD0DXOLG\DDQG:LVQX5XVPDQWRUR
)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQSOHDVHFRQWDFWLQIR#SHDFHFRLG
RUYLVLWZZZSHDFHFRLG
(ii)

Kateren 1B

LQWHUQDWLRQDOGDWDDUHEDVHGRQSXEOLVKHGQDWLRQDOVWDWLVWLFDQG816WDWLVWLFDO2IILFH
WKHUHPD\EHRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQVXSSOHPHQWHGE\RWKHUVRXUFHVDQGHVWLPDWHV,Q
WKHFDVHRI&',$&WKHVHVXSSOHPHQWVKDYHEHHQVXEMHFWHGWRSURIHVVLRQDOVFUXWLQ\
DQGGHEDWHDQGDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKRWKHULQGHSHQGHQWVRXUFHV7KHUHDUHDORWRI
JUDSKLFVDQGFKDUWVWKDWDUHGHYHORSHGXVLQJWKH&OLPDWH$QDO\VLV,QGLFDWRU7RROV
&$,79HUVLRQGHYHORSHGE\WKH:RUOG5HVRXUFH,QVWLWXWH


7KHUHPD\EHVRPHTXHVWLRQVDQGDUJXPHQWVUHJDUGLQJWKHYDOLGLW\RIVRPHRIILFLDO
GDWD LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH IURP WKH ,QIRUPDWLRQ &HQWHU RQ (QHUJ\ RI WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI
(QHUJ\DQG0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV%XWVLQFHWKH\DUHRIILFLDOWKHVWXG\ZRXOGVWLOOUHO\
RQ WKHVH GDWD )RU LQWHUQDWLRQDO GDWD ZH XVHGWKRVH IURP &',$& ,($ DQG :5,
EDVHGRQ,($VWDWLVWLFV7KH\DUHZLGHO\UHIHUUHGWRE\WKH81)&&&
&XUUHQW6WDWXV
7KHDQQXDOHPLVVLRQVLQWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRULQ,QGRQHVLDUHDFKHG0W&2HLQ
DFFRUGLQJWRWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QHUJ\DQG0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV3XVDW,QIRUPDVL(QHUJL
  &DUERQ 'LR[LGH ,QIRUPDWLRQ $QDO\VLV &HQWHU &',$& LQ 2DN 5LGJH
7HQQHVVHHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD86SXWWKHILJXUHLQWKHVDPH\HDUDW
PLOOLRQWRQVRIFDUERQRU0W&2H0DUODQGHWDO,QWKH
WRWDOHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHVHFWRUZHUH0W&2H6HH7DEOHEHORZ7KLV




)RUPHWKRGRORJ\RQ&$,7GDWDSOHDVHYLVLWKWWSFDLWZULRUJFDLWSKS"SDJH QRWHV

3OHDVHQRWHWKDW)LJXUHXVHV333DGMXVWHG*'3WRFDOFXODWHHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLW\QRW*'3WKXVWKHGLIIHUHQW
YDOXHIURP7DEOH


1R ,WHP
,QWHUQDWLRQDO
(QHUJ\$JHQF\
3XVDW,QIRUPDVL
(QHUJL
 *'3ELOOLRQ86  
 7RWDO3RSXODWLRQPLOOLRQ  
 7RWDO&2(PLVVLRQ0W&2H  
 7RWDO&2(PLVVLRQE\)XHO7\SH
0W&2H



 &RDO  
 2LO  
 *DV  
 7RWDO&2(PLVVLRQEDVHGRQ6HFWRUDO
(PLVVLRQ0W&2H

 (OHFWULFLW\*HQHUDWLRQ  
 ,QGXVWU\  
 +RXVHKROGDQG&RPPHUFLDO  
 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ  
 &2(PLVVLRQ3HU&DSLWDW&2FDS  
 &2(PLVVLRQ,QWHQVLW\W&2PLOOLRQ
*'3
 

7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRI(PLVVLRQ'DWDLQIURP,($DQGWKH3,(



ILJXUHLVSHUFHQWKLJKHUWKDQWKHHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLW\LQVHH7DEOH  

Page 19Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

SUHFLSLWDWLRQ SDWWHUQV DQG LQFUHDVHG YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI WKH ODQGOHVV DQG WKH SRRU
81)&&&
$VWXG\FRQFOXGHVWKDWFOLPDWHFKDQJHKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRFKDQJHWKHSURGXFWLYLW\
RIDJULFXOWXUHVLJQLILFDQWO\LQPRVWORFDWLRQV6RPHKLJKO\SURGXFWLYHDUHDVPD\
EHFRPHPXFKOHVVSURGXFWLYHZKLOHVRPHPDUJLQDODUHDVPD\EHQHILW0RVWDUHDV
FDQ H[SHFW FKDQJHV KRZHYHU DQG ZLOO QHHG WR DGDSW EXW WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI FKDQJH
FDQQRWEHVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGO\SUHGLFWHG$FFRUGLQJWR WKHVDPHVWXG\SROHUHJLRQV
ZLOOOLNHO\WRJDLQZKLOHVXEWURSLFDODQGWURSLFDOUHJLRQVPD\EHPRUHOLNHO\WRVXIIHU
GURXJKW DQG ORVVHV LQ SURGXFWLYLW\  ,Q WXUQ IRRG VHFXULW\ ZLOO EH DIIHFWHG DQG
IHHGLQJWKHJURZLQJQXPEHURISRSXODWLRQZLOOEHDFKDOOHQJH5HLOO\
8VLQJWKHGRXEOHG&2

FRQFHQWUDWLRQDJULFXOWXUDOSURMHFWLRQVFKDQJHVLQFURS\LHOGV
LQ WKH $VLDQ UHJLRQ ZLOO YDU\ EHWZHHQ  SHUFHQWWR  SHUFHQW E\  5HLOO\
,Q,QGRQHVLDWKHGRXEOLQJRI&2FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHFRXOGEH
SRVLWLYHRUQHJDWLYH,WPD\EHDQDGYDQWDJHDVLWZLOOVXSSRUWWKHSKRWRV\QWKHVLV
SURFHVV6RODUUDGLDWLRQZLOOKDYHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWVZKLOHWKHULVHLQWHPSHUDWXUHZLOO
OLNHO\EHGLVDGYDQWDJHVWRLQ,QGRQHVLD·VDJULFXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHV7KHFKDQJHRIUDLQ
SDWWHUQ ZLOO KDYH HLWKHU D SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH HIIHFW GHSHQGLQJ RQ JHRJUDSKLFDO
ORFDWLRQ7KLVUHTXLUHVIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK$PRGHOLQJVLPXODWLRQXVLQJ&URS0RGHO
GHYHORSHG E\ WKH *RGGDUG ,QVWLWXWH RI 6SDFH 6WXGLHV *,66 8. 0HWHRURORJLFDO
2IILFH VKRZV D GHFUHDVH RIFURSKDUYHVWLQ :HVW -DYD DQG (DVW -DYD DV DUHVXOW RI
FOLPDWHFKDQJH$PLQ
0HDQ WHPSHUDWXUH DQG UDLQIDOO SDWWHUQV DUH FULWLFDO YDULDEOHV LQ WKH DJULFXOWXUDO

VHFWRU6WXGLHVVXJJHVWWKDWUDLQIDOOZLOOLQFUHDVHE\WRSHUFHQWLQWKH&LWDUXP
ZDWHUVKHG  WR  SHUFHQW LQ WKH %UDQWDV ZDWHUVKHG DQG  WR  SHUFHQW LQ WKH
6DGDQJ ZDWHUVKHG DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VOLJKW WHPSHUDWXUH FKDQJHV RI  WR 
R
&
WKURXJKRXWWKHDUFKLSHODJR7KHDGGLWLRQDOUDLQIDOOFDQDXJPHQWZDWHUVXSSOLHVIRU
LUULJDWLRQE\SHUFHQWSHUFHQWDQGSHUFHQWUHVSHFWLYHO\&RQYHUVHO\PRUH
UDSLG VLOWDWLRQ LV OLNHO\ WR UHGXFH WKH OLIHWLPH RI UHVHUYRLUV DQG LUULJDWLRQ FDQDOV
,QFUHDVHGSUHFLSLWDWLRQPD\ DOVRDFFHOHUDWHVRLO HURVLRQLQFUHDVHVLQ UDLQIDOOV RI
SHUFHQWSHUFHQWDQGSHUFHQWZRXOGFDXVHLQFUHDVHVLQVRLOORVVRISHUFHQW
 SHUFHQW DQG  SHUFHQW UHVSHFWLYHO\  &RQVHTXHQWO\ VRLO IHUWLOLW\ DQG ODQG
SURGXFWLYLW\ SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ XSODQG UHJLRQV ZRXOG GHFOLQH E\  WR  SHUFHQW LQ
&LWDUXPWRSHUFHQWLQ%UDQWDVDQGWRSHUFHQWLQ6DGDQJ6WDWH0LQLVWU\
IRUWKH(QYLURQPHQW
$VLGHIURPWKHORVVRIDUDEOHODQGGXHWRVHDOHYHOULVHWKHDQWLFLSDWHGQDWLRQZLGH
HIIHFWRIVRLOGHJUDGDWLRQDORQHLVWKDW\LHOGVRIXSODQGFURSVVXFKDVVR\EHDQDQG
PDL]HZLOOGHFOLQHE\WRSHUFHQWZKHUHDVULFH\LHOGVZRXOGGHFOLQHE\RQO\
SHUFHQWDVULFHLVSODQWHGSULPDULO\LQORZODQGUHJLRQV,PSDFWVDUHOLNHO\WREHPRVW
VHULRXVLQXSODQGDUHDVZKHUHIDUPHUVZLOOVXIIHUIURPGHWHULRUDWLQJVRLOTXDOLW\DQG
Page 46 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 13B


:HZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKHIROORZLQJLQGLYLGXDOVIRUSURYLGLQJLQSXWVFRPPHQWVDV
ZHOODVUHVHDUFKGDWDDQGSXEOLFDWLRQGXULQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKLVSDSHUDQGIRU
DOORZLQJXVWRTXRWHWKHLUSXEOLFDWLRQ

 0H]DJ5DWDJRI*HRSK\VLFVDQG0HWHRURORJ\$JHQF\
 $JXV6XSDQJDWRI0DULQHDQG)LVKHULHV5HVHDUFK$JHQF\'HSDUWPHQWRI
0DULQHDQG)LVKHULHV

 0DULWMH+XWDSHDRI'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDO(OHFWULFLW\DQG(QHUJ\8WLOLVDWLRQ
 *LWD/HVWDULRI'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDO(OHFWULFLW\DQG(QHUJ\8WLOLVDWLRQ
 5L]DOGL%RHURI&DUERQDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVHDUFK,QGRQHVLD
 $JXV3XUQRPRRI7KH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW
 'DGDQJ+LOPDQRIWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW
 1DVVDW',GULVRIWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW
 8SLN$VOLDRI7KH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW
<XOLD6XU\DQWLRIWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW
6XWDUGLRI3XVGLNODW38'HSDUWPHQWRI3XEOLF:RUNV
6\DLIXO$QZDURIWKH0LQLVWU\RI)RUHVWU\
7UL:DK\XGL\DWLRIWKH0LQLVWU\RI)RUHVWU\
5DKPDQWRRI'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDORI/DQGDQG:DWHU0DQDJHPHQW
'HSDUWPHQWRI)RUHVWU\
:DO$ONDGULRI+HDOWK'HSDUWPHQW
*XVW\D,QGULDQLRI<D\DVDQ3HODQJL,QGRQHVLD
1XU+LGD\DWLRI*UHHQSHDFH,QGRQHVLD
<XV5XVLOD1XURI:HWODQGV,QGRQHVLD
%HWKD/XVLDQDRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU5HVHDUFKLQ$JURIRUHVWU\
&KDQGUD3DQMLZLERZRRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU5HVHDUFKLQ$JURIRUHVWU\
0XKDPDG)DULGRI&RQVHUYDWLRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO,QGRQHVLD
%XVWDU0RI*UHHQSHDFH,QGRQHVLD
/ROR3DQJDEHDQRI<D\DVDQ%LQD8VDKD/LQJNXQJDQ
-RH/HLWPDQQRIWKH:RUOG%DQN
,QD%LQDUL3UDQRWRRIWKH:RUOG%DQN
7LP%URZQRIWKH:RUOG%DQN
(PLOH-XUJHQVRIWKH:RUOG%DQN
0LNH+DUULVRQRI'),'
:HZRXOGDOVROLNHWRWKDQNWKH'HSDUWPHQWIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW'),'
,QGRQHVLD DQG 7KH :RUOG %DQN,QGRQHVLD IRU WKHLU FRQWULEXWLRQ LQ IXQGLQJ WKH
SURFHVV

(iii)

DQG TXDOLW\ RI UHJLRQDOZDWHU UHVRXUFHV ,ULDQWR HW DO 7KH LPSDFWV RQ WKH
K\GURORJLFDO F\FOH ZLOO FRYHU VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UXQRII GHHS ZDWHU DQG ZDWHU
UHVRXUFHV WKH LPSDFWV RQ ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV ZLOO LQFOXGH PXQLFLSDO ZDWHU VXSSO\
UHVHUYRLUDQGLUULJDWLRQ
3URORQJHGGU\VHDVRQ DQGVKLIWHGRU LQFUHDVHG DQRPDOLHVRIGU\ DQGZHWVHDVRQDO
F\FOH²VRPHWLPHXQSUHGLFWDEO\²FDQUHGXFHWKHTXDQWLW\DQGTXDOLW\RIZDWHU
UHVRXUFHV,ULDQWRHWDO$VWXG\LPSOLHVWKDWDGRXEOHGDWPRVSKHULF
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI &2

 IURP  SDUWV SHU PLOOLRQ SSP SULRU WR WKH LQGXVWULDO
UHYROXWLRQWRDERXWSSPEHIRUHWKHHQGRIWKLVFHQWXU\ZLWKRXWDQ\FKDQJHLQ
ODQGXVHZLOOFDXVHDGHFUHDVHLQDOPRVWDOOK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHSDUDPHWHUVLQWZR
REVHUYHGZDWHUVKHGVLQ 6RXWK6XODZHVLDQG RQO\HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQZLOO LQFUHDVH
,3%
$QRWKHU PRGHOEDVHG SUHGLFWLRQ SURYLGHV GLIIHUHQW UHVXOW KRZHYHU  7KLV PRGHO
SUHGLFWV WKDWWKHK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHSDUDPHWHUV ZLOO LQFUHDVH XQGHU WKH GRXEOHG
&2

FRQFHQWUDWLRQ7KHVDPHVWXG\ILQGVWKDWJOREDOZDUPLQJFRXSOHGZLWK ODQG
XVHFKDQJHZLOOFDXVH:DODQDH+XOXZDWHUVKHGDQG6DGGDQJZDWHUVKHGWREHLQDQ
´DOHUWµVWDWXVXVLQJ&6,52PRGHODQG´FULWLFDOµXVLQJ*)'/PRGHO´$OHUWµVWDWXV
LQGLFDWHV WKH WRWDO ZDWHU GHPDQG EHLQJ LQ WKH UDQJH EHWZHHQ  SHUFHQW DQG 
SHUFHQW RI WKH ORZIORZ FRQGLWLRQV DQG ´FULWLFDOµ VWDWXV LQGLFDWHV WKH WRWDO ZDWHU
GHPDQGEHLQJLQWKHUDQJHEHWZHHQSHUFHQWDQGSHUFHQW.DLPXGGLQ
7RDGDSWWRWKLVGLIILFXOWVLWXDWLRQVRPHDFWLRQVWKDWDUHUHFRPPHQGHGE\WKH
JRYHUQPHQW DQG DIIHFWHG SHRSOH LQFOXGH
 LQWHJUDWHG ZDWHU UHVRXUFH SODQQLQJ DQG
PDQDJHPHQW HQKDQFHG GDWDEDVH DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI K\GURORJLFDO

UHVRXUFHV ZDWHU FRQVHUYDWLRQ HIILFLHQW DQG UDWLRQDO XVH RI ZDWHU LQ DJULFXOWXUH
VHFWRUDQGHQKDQFHGFDSDFLW\RIDIIHFWHGSHRSOH,ULDQWRHWDO

,PSDFWVRQ$JULFXOWXUH6HFWRUDQG)RRG6HFXULW\
7KHFRPELQDWLRQRI LQFUHDVHGDYHUDJHWHPSHUDWXUHDGLVUXSWHG K\GURORJLFDOF\FOH
LQ WHUPV RI SURORQJHG GU\ VHDVRQ DQG D VKRUWHU EXW PRUH LQWHQVH ZHW VHDVRQ
LQFUHDVHG DQRPDO\ RI GU\ DQG ZHW VHDVRQDO F\FOH DQG UHGXFHG VRLO PRLVWXUH ZLOO
GLVUXSW WKH DJULFXOWXUH VHFWRU DQG HYHQWXDOO\ IRRG VHFXULW\  $OWKRXJK WKH
PDJQLWXGH RU GLUHFWLRQ RI LPSDFW IRU LQGLYLGXDO FRXQWULHV RU UHJLRQV UHPDLQV
XQFHUWDLQFOLPDWHFKDQJHLVH[SHFWHGWRDIIHFWFURS\LHOGVDQGDJULFXOWXUDO
SURGXFWLRQ  6RPH LPSDFWV DUH ELRSK\VLFDO HFRORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF  &OLPDWH
LPSDFWVRQDJULFXOWXUHLQFOXGHDVKLIWLQFOLPDWHDQGDJULFXOWXUDO]RQHVWRZDUGVWKH
SROHV FKDQJHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ SDWWHUQV GXH WR KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUH D ERRVW LQ
DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLYLW\ GXH WR LQFUHDVHG &2

 LQ WKH DWPRVSKHUH FKDQJLQJ
Page 45Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 13A

 ¡ ¢ 
 

   

)RUHVWU\ 

(QHUJ\6HFWRU(PLVVLRQ 

$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN(PLVVLRQ 


:DVWH(PLVVLRQ

*OREDO&RPSDULVRQ 

       

7HPSHUDWXUH,QFUHDVH 

6HD/HYHO5LVH2FHDQ:DUPLQJDQG&RUDO%OHDFKLQJ 
 ¢   

3ROLF\RQWKH(QYLURQPHQW 
3ROLF\RQ)RUHVWU\ 
3ROLF\RQ(QHUJ\ 
3ROLF\RQ$GDSWDWLRQ  
&OHDQ'HYHORSPHQW0HFKDQLVP  
5HGXFWLRQRI(PLVVLRQVIURP'HIRUHVWDWLRQ 
 
































(iv)

'HIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQGFRQYHUVLRQDUHWKHODUJHVWVRXUFHVRIHPLVVLRQV7KHODUJHVW
FDUERQ GLR[LGH HPLVVLRQV LQ WKH IRUHVWU\ VHFWRU DERXW WKUHHTXDUWHUV  SHUFHQW
FRPH IURP GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG ODQG FRQYHUVLRQ IROORZHG E\ IRUHVWUHODWHG HQHUJ\
FRQVXPSWLRQ  SHUFHQW DQG WKH UHPDLQGHU LV IURP IRUHVWUHODWHG LQGXVWULDO
SURFHVVHVSHUFHQW)RUHVWILUHVDUHWKHPDLQFRQWULEXWRURIGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQG
FRQYHUVLRQDFFRXQWLQJIRUSHUFHQWRIWRWDOGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQGFRQYHUVLRQ,Q
WKHIRUHVWILUHVDORQHLWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWEHWZHHQDQG0W&2

HZHUH

UHOHDVHG WR WKH DWPRVSKHUH 3DJH HW DO   2Q DYHUDJH DURXQG  0W DUH
UHOHDVHGGXULQJWKHDQQXDOEXUQLQJVHDVRQDQG0WDUHUHOHDVHGHDFK\HDUIURP
GHFRPSRVLWLRQRIGU\SHDW:HWODQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDOQG*OREDOZDUPLQJZLOOOLNHO\
FDXVHDYLFLRXVF\FOHE\GU\LQJXSWKHUDLQIRUHVWDQGSHDWVZDPSVWKXVLQFUHDVLQJ
WKHULVNVRIHYHQPRUHLQWHQVHILUHV
(PLVVLRQVIURPWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDUHVPDOOEXWDUHJURZLQJYHU\UDSLGO\(PLVVLRQV
IURP QRQIRUHVWU\ VHFWRUV DUH VPDOO LQ DEVROXWH DQG SHU FDSLWD WHUPV EXW DUH
JURZLQJYHU\UDSLGO\&XUUHQWHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDERXW0W&2

H
DFFRXQW IRU  SHUFHQW RI WKH FRXQWU\·V WRWDO HPLVVLRQV  %XW WKHVH HPLVVLRQV IURP
LQGXVWU\SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQDQGWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUDUHJURZLQJYHU\UDSLGO\LQWKH
ZDNHRILQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK,WLVH[SHFWHGWKDWZLWKFXUUHQW
JRYHUQPHQWDOSROLFLHVWKDWSURPRWHWKHH[SDQVLRQRIIRVVLOIXHOVDQGWKHKLJK
EDUULHUVWRFOHDQDQGUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHVRIHQHUJ\WKHWUHQGLVWKDWHPLVVLRQVIURP
HQHUJ\VHFWRUZLOOFRQWLQXHWRGHPRQVWUDWHDVWURQJJURZWKWULSOLQJLQWKHQH[W
\HDUVIURPDERXW0W&2

HLQWRDERXW0W&2

HLQ,PSURYHPHQWLQ
HQHUJ\LQWHQVLW\RIWKHHFRQRP\DERXWSHUFHQWEHWZHHQDQGKDVEHHQ
RIIVHWE\VWURQJHFRQRPLFJURZWKDVDZKROH2QDSHUFDSLWDEDVLVJUHHQKRXVHJDV
HPLVVLRQVLQ,QGRQHVLDKDYHJURZQSHUFHQWVLQFHWKHVRUSHUFHQWVLQFH
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH
(PLVVLRQV IURP DJULFXOWXUH DQG ZDVWH DUH VPDOO  (PLVVLRQV IURP WKH DJULFXOWXUH
DQGZDVWHVHFWRUVDUHYHU\VPDOODQGLQVLJQLILFDQWJOREDOO\FRPLQJPDLQO\IURPULFH
SURGXFWLRQ7KHVHFWRULVWKHPDLQFRQWULEXWLRQRIPHWKDQH&+

DQGQLWURXVR[LGH

1

2HPLVVLRQV6HYHQW\SHUFHQWSHUFHQWRIWKHHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHDJULFXOWXUH
VHFWRUDUHJHQHUDWHGE\ULFHFXOWLYDWLRQ$OEHLWVPDOOJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQV
IURPWKH,QGRQHVLDQZDVWHVHFWRULQUDQJHGIURP²0W&2

H7KLVUDQNV
,QGRQHVLDDVWKHVL[WKODUJHVWHPLWWHULQWKHZDVWHVHFWRU86(3$
,PSDFWV
,QGRQHVLDZLOOH[SHULHQFHPRGHVWWHPSHUDWXUHLQFUHDVH$QQXDOPHDQWHPSHUDWXUH
LQ ,QGRQHVLD KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG DV LQFUHDVLQJ E\ DURXQG  GHJUHHV &HOVLXV 
R
&
VLQFH  DQG KDV RFFXUUHG LQ DOO VHDVRQV RI WKH \HDU UHODWLYHO\ FRQVLVWHQW LI QRW
VOLJKWO\ORZHUWKDQWKHH[SHFWDWLRQRIWKHZDUPLQJWUHQGGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KH
VZDVWKHZDUPHVWGHFDGHDQGDLQFUHDVHRIDOPRVW
R
&DERYHWKH²
Page 3Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 2B

'HIRUHVWDWLRQSHDWODQGGHJUDGDWLRQDQGIRUHVWILUHVKDYHSXW,QGRQHVLDDPRQJWKH
WRS WKUHH ODUJHVW HPLWWHUV RI JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV LQ WKH ZRUOG  (PLVVLRQV UHVXOWLQJ
IURPGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGIRUHVWILUHVDUHILYHWLPHVWKRVHIURPQRQIRUHVWU\HPLVVLRQV
(PLVVLRQVIURPHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVDUHUHODWLYHO\VPDOOEXWDUHJURZLQJ
YHU\UDSLGO\
$W WKH VDPH WLPH ,QGRQHVLD VWDQGV WR H[SHULHQFH VLJQLILFDQW ORVVHV ZLWK FOLPDWH
FKDQJH%HLQJDQDUFKLSHODJR,QGRQHVLDLVYHU\YXOQHUDEOHWRWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWH
FKDQJH 3URORQJHG GURXJKWV LQFUHDVHG IUHTXHQF\ LQ H[WUHPH ZHDWKHU HYHQWV DQG
KHDY\ UDLQIDOO OHDGLQJ WRELJIORRGV DUH D IHZ H[DPSOHV RI WKH LPSDFWVRIFOLPDWH

FKDQJH7KHLQXQGDWLRQRIVRPH SDUWVRIWKHFRXQWU\IRULQVWDQFH-DNDUWD%D\KDV
FRPHWRSDVV,QGRQHVLD·VULFKELRGLYHUVLW\LVDOVRDWULVN,QWXUQWKLVPD\OHDGWR
KDUPIXO HIIHFWV RQ DJULFXOWXUH ILVKHU\ DQG IRUHVWU\ UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKUHDWV WR IRRG
VHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV
,QGRQHVLD ZLOO KRVW WKH 
WK
&RQIHUHQFHRIWKH3DUWLHVWRWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV
)UDPHZRUN&RQYHQWLRQRQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH ZKLFKVHUYHV DVWKH7KLUG0HHWLQJRI
WKH3DUWLHVWRWKH.\RWR3URWRFROLQ%DOL'HFHPEHU7KLVUHSRUWKDVEHHQ
SUHSDUHGDVDQLQSXWWRWKH&23023RQWKHRFFDVLRQRI6LU1LFKRODV6WHUQ·VYLVLW
WR,QGRQHVLD7KHUHSRUWGLVFXVVHVHPLVVLRQVLPSDFWVDQGSROLF\FRQVWUDLQWVIDFHG
E\,QGRQHVLDWRFRSHZLWKFOLPDWHFKDQJH
(PLVVLRQV
,QGRQHVLDLVDPRQJWKHWRSWKUHH*+*HPLWWHUVLQWKHZRUOGGXHWRODQGXVHFKDQJH
DQG GHIRUHVWDWLRQ  ,QGRQHVLD KDV EHFRPH RQH RI WKH WKUHH ODUJHVW HPLWWHUV RI
JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV LQ WKH ZRUOG VHH 7DEOH  )LJXUH   7KLV LV ODUJHO\ GXH WR WKH
VLJQLILFDQW UHOHDVH RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH IURP GHIRUHVWDWLRQ  <HDUO\ HPLVVLRQV LQ
,QGRQHVLD IURP HQHUJ\ DJULFXOWXUH DQG ZDVWH DOO WRJHWKHU DUH DURXQG  PLOOLRQ
WRQV RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH HTXLYDOHQW 0W&2

H <HW ODQGXVH FKDQJH DQG IRUHVWU\
/8&)DORQHLVHVWLPDWHGWRUHOHDVHDERXW0W&2

H ² PRVWO\ IURP
GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DV HVWLPDWHG E\ WKH ,3&&+RXJKWRQFLWHGLQ%DXPHUWHW DO
 :KLOH GDWD RQ WKH HPLVVLRQV IURP GLIIHUHQW VRXUFHV GRHV YDU\ EHWZHHQ
VWXGLHVWKHRYHUDOOFRQFOXVLRQLVWKHVDPH,QGRQHVLDLVDPDMRUHPLWWHURI*+*V

Page 1Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
 DYHUDJH PDGH LW WKH FRXQWU\·V ZDUPHVW \HDU LQ WKH FHQWXU\ +XOPH HW DO


,QGRQHVLD ZLOO H[SHULHQFH PRUH LQWHQVH UDLQIDOO&OLPDWHFKDQJHLVSUHGLFWHGWR
UHVXOW LQSHUFHQWWR SHUFHQW PRUH UDLQIDOO SHU \HDULQ,QGRQHVLD5DWDJ LQ
6XVDQGL$V)LJXUHVKRZVWKHHQWLUHFRXQWU\ZLOOH[SHULHQFHPRUHUDLQIDOO
ZLWKWKHODUJHVWFKDQJHEHLQJLQWKH0ROXFFDV7KHLQFUHDVHGUDLQIDOOLVH[SHFWHGWR
FRQWLQXHDQGGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHUHVXOWLQDVKRUWHUUDLQ\VHDVRQIHZHUQXPEHU
RIUDLQ\GD\VLQD\HDUZLWKVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWKHULVNRIIORRGLQJ

)LJXUH7KH$YHUDJH&KDQJHRI3UHFLSLWDWLRQ3DWWHUQ6HSWHPEHU
2FWREHU1RYHPEHULQPP\HDUV5DWDJ

)RRG VHFXULW\ LQ ,QGRQHVLD ZLOO EH WKUHDWHQHG E\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH3HUKDSVWKH
ODUJHVW FRQFHUQIRU,QGRQHVLDZLWKUHJDUGV WR WKH LPSDFWV RI FOLPDWHFKDQJHLVWKH
ULVNRIGHFUHDVHGIRRGVHFXULW\&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOODOWHUSUHFLSLWDWLRQHYDSRUDWLRQ
UXQRIIZDWHUDQGVRLOPRLVWXUHKHQFHZLOOKDYHHIIHFWVRQDJULFXOWXUHDQGWKXVIRRG
VHFXULW\7KHGURXJKWVFDXVHGE\WKH(O1LQRHYHQWDIIHFWHGKHFWDUHVRI
ULFH,PSRUWDQWLQFRPHJHQHUDWLQJQRQIRRGFURSVVXFKDVFRIIHHFRFRDDQGUXEEHU
ZHUHDOVRDIIHFWHG)$23URMHFWHGFKDQJHVLQFURS\LHOGVLQ$VLDFRXOGYDU\
EHWZHHQSHUFHQWWRSHUFHQWE\WKHHQGRIWKHFHQWXU\LQWKHHYHQWRID
GRXEOLQJ RI DWPRVSKHULF FDUERQ GLR[LGH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 5HLOO\   $ PRGHO
VLPXODWLQJWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQFURSV*RGGDUG,QVWLWXWHRI6SDFH
6WXGLHV 8. 0HWHRURORJLFDO2IILFH VKRZV D GHFUHDVHRI FURS KDUYHVW LQ:HVW DQG
(DVW-DYD&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOOLNHO\UHGXFHVRLOIHUWLOLW\E\SHUFHQWWRSHUFHQW
UHVXOWLQJLQSURMHFWHGGHFUHDVHV RI ULFH\LHOGE\ SHUFHQW SHU\HDUVR\EHDQE\ 
SHUFHQWDQGPDL]HE\SHUFHQW$PLQDQG3DUU\DQG1LK
Page 4 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 2A
7DEOH*+*HPLVVLRQVVXPPDU\0W&2H



(PLVVLRQV
VRXUFHV
8QLWHG6WDWHV &KLQD ,QGRQHVLD %UD]LO 5XVVLD ,QGLD
(QHUJ\


     
$JULFXOWXUH


     
)RUHVWU\


     
:DVWH


     
7RWDO      
1RWH7KHWDEOHH[FOXGHV(8IURPWKHFRPSDULVRQDV(8FRPSULVHVFRXQWULHV,I(8DVDEORFNHQWHUVWKHFDOFXODWLRQ
,QGRQHVLDVWDQGV
WK
DQGWKHUDQNLQJDUH86(8&KLQDDQG,QGRQHVLD7KHGDWDIRUHQHUJ\HPLVVLRQVDUHIURP7KH
HQHUJ\GDWDXVHG,($·VDQQXDOVWDWLVWLFVH[FHSWIRU,QGRQHVLDZKHUH3,(VWDWLVWLFVDUHXVHG7KHGDWDIRU
DJULFXOWXUHHPLVVLRQVDUHIURPIURP86(3$%LRPDVVFRPEXVWLRQLVLQFOXGHGLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQ7KHGDWDIRU
IRUHVWU\/8/8&)HPLVVLRQVDUHIURPIURP+RXJKWRQ7KHGDWDIRUZDVWHHPLVVLRQVDUHIURPIURP86
(3$



)LJXUH7KH&RPSDULVRQRI*+*(PLVVLRQ

,QGRQHVLDLVKRVWWRYDVWIRUHVWHGDUHDV$ERXWELOOLRQWRQVRIFDUERQVWRFN%W&
DUHVWRUHGLQYHJHWDWLRQDQGVRLODQGSHUFHQWRIWKLVDERXW%W&LVVWRUHGLQ
WKHVWDQGLQJIRUHVW6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW%XWRXWRIWKHPLOOLRQ
KDRIIRUHVWDUHDDOPRVWKDOILVLQSRRUDQGGHJUDGHGFRQGLWLRQV'HSDUWHPHQ
.HKXWDQDQ 5,   /DQG XVH FKDQJH DQG GHIRUHVWDWLRQ HVWLPDWHG DW  PLOOLRQ
KHFWDUHVKDSHU\HDU:RUOG%DQNUHVXOWVLQWKHUHOHDVHRIDODUJHDPRXQWRI
,QGRQHVLD·VFDUERQUHVHUYRLU,QGHHGWKHHPLVVLRQVIURP/8/8&)QRWDEO\
GHIRUHVWDWLRQDFFRXQWIRUSHUFHQWRIWKH\HDUO\HPLVVLRQVRIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHVLQ
,QGRQHVLDDQGSHUFHQWRIJOREDO/8/8&)HPLVVLRQV
Page 2 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

'HIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQGFRQYHUVLRQDUHWKHODUJHVWVRXUFHVRIHPLVVLRQV7KHODUJHVW
FDUERQ GLR[LGH HPLVVLRQV LQ WKH IRUHVWU\ VHFWRU DERXW WKUHHTXDUWHUV  SHUFHQW
FRPH IURP GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG ODQG FRQYHUVLRQ IROORZHG E\ IRUHVWUHODWHG HQHUJ\
FRQVXPSWLRQ  SHUFHQW DQG WKH UHPDLQGHU LV IURP IRUHVWUHODWHG LQGXVWULDO
SURFHVVHVSHUFHQW)RUHVWILUHVDUHWKHPDLQFRQWULEXWRURIGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQG
FRQYHUVLRQDFFRXQWLQJIRUSHUFHQWRIWRWDOGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQGFRQYHUVLRQ,Q
WKHIRUHVWILUHVDORQHLWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWEHWZHHQDQG0W&2

HZHUH
UHOHDVHG WR WKH DWPRVSKHUH 3DJH HW DO   2Q DYHUDJH DURXQG  0W DUH
UHOHDVHGGXULQJWKHDQQXDOEXUQLQJVHDVRQDQG0WDUHUHOHDVHGHDFK\HDUIURP
GHFRPSRVLWLRQRIGU\SHDW:HWODQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDOQG*OREDOZDUPLQJZLOOOLNHO\
FDXVHDYLFLRXVF\FOHE\GU\LQJXSWKHUDLQIRUHVWDQGSHDWVZDPSVWKXVLQFUHDVLQJ
WKHULVNVRIHYHQPRUHLQWHQVHILUHV
(PLVVLRQVIURPWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDUHVPDOOEXWDUHJURZLQJYHU\UDSLGO\(PLVVLRQV
IURP QRQIRUHVWU\ VHFWRUV DUH VPDOO LQ DEVROXWH DQG SHU FDSLWD WHUPV EXW DUH
JURZLQJYHU\UDSLGO\&XUUHQWHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDERXW0W&2


H
DFFRXQW IRU  SHUFHQW RI WKH FRXQWU\·V WRWDO HPLVVLRQV  %XW WKHVH HPLVVLRQV IURP
LQGXVWU\SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQDQGWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUDUHJURZLQJYHU\UDSLGO\LQWKH
ZDNHRILQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK,WLVH[SHFWHGWKDWZLWKFXUUHQW
JRYHUQPHQWDOSROLFLHVWKDWSURPRWHWKHH[SDQVLRQRIIRVVLOIXHOVDQGWKHKLJK
EDUULHUVWRFOHDQDQGUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHVRIHQHUJ\WKHWUHQGLVWKDWHPLVVLRQVIURP
HQHUJ\VHFWRUZLOOFRQWLQXHWRGHPRQVWUDWHDVWURQJJURZWKWULSOLQJLQWKHQH[W
\HDUVIURPDERXW0W&2

HLQWRDERXW0W&2

HLQ,PSURYHPHQWLQ
HQHUJ\LQWHQVLW\RIWKHHFRQRP\DERXWSHUFHQWEHWZHHQDQGKDVEHHQ
RIIVHWE\VWURQJHFRQRPLFJURZWKDVDZKROH2QDSHUFDSLWDEDVLVJUHHQKRXVHJDV
HPLVVLRQVLQ,QGRQHVLDKDYHJURZQSHUFHQWVLQFHWKHVRUSHUFHQWVLQFH
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH
(PLVVLRQV IURP DJULFXOWXUH DQG ZDVWH DUH VPDOO  (PLVVLRQV IURP WKH DJULFXOWXUH
DQGZDVWHVHFWRUVDUHYHU\VPDOODQGLQVLJQLILFDQWJOREDOO\FRPLQJPDLQO\IURPULFH
SURGXFWLRQ7KHVHFWRULVWKHPDLQFRQWULEXWLRQRIPHWKDQH&+

DQGQLWURXVR[LGH
1

2HPLVVLRQV6HYHQW\SHUFHQWSHUFHQWRIWKHHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHDJULFXOWXUH
VHFWRUDUHJHQHUDWHGE\ULFHFXOWLYDWLRQ$OEHLWVPDOOJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQV
IURPWKH,QGRQHVLDQZDVWHVHFWRULQUDQJHGIURP²0W&2

H7KLVUDQNV
,QGRQHVLDDVWKHVL[WKODUJHVWHPLWWHULQWKHZDVWHVHFWRU86(3$

,PSDFWV
,QGRQHVLDZLOOH[SHULHQFHPRGHVWWHPSHUDWXUHLQFUHDVH$QQXDOPHDQWHPSHUDWXUH
LQ ,QGRQHVLD KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG DV LQFUHDVLQJ E\ DURXQG  GHJUHHV &HOVLXV 
R
&
VLQFH  DQG KDV RFFXUUHG LQ DOO VHDVRQV RI WKH \HDU UHODWLYHO\ FRQVLVWHQW LI QRW
VOLJKWO\ORZHUWKDQWKHH[SHFWDWLRQRIWKHZDUPLQJWUHQGGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KH
VZDVWKHZDUPHVWGHFDGHDQGDLQFUHDVHRIDOPRVW
R
&DERYHWKH²
Page 3Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 2B

'HIRUHVWDWLRQSHDWODQGGHJUDGDWLRQDQGIRUHVWILUHVKDYHSXW,QGRQHVLDDPRQJWKH
WRS WKUHH ODUJHVW HPLWWHUV RI JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV LQ WKH ZRUOG  (PLVVLRQV UHVXOWLQJ
IURPGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGIRUHVWILUHVDUHILYHWLPHVWKRVHIURPQRQIRUHVWU\HPLVVLRQV
(PLVVLRQVIURPHQHUJ\DQGLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVDUHUHODWLYHO\VPDOOEXWDUHJURZLQJ
YHU\UDSLGO\
$W WKH VDPH WLPH ,QGRQHVLD VWDQGV WR H[SHULHQFH VLJQLILFDQW ORVVHV ZLWK FOLPDWH
FKDQJH%HLQJDQDUFKLSHODJR,QGRQHVLDLVYHU\YXOQHUDEOHWRWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWH
FKDQJH 3URORQJHG GURXJKWV LQFUHDVHG IUHTXHQF\ LQ H[WUHPH ZHDWKHU HYHQWV DQG
KHDY\ UDLQIDOO OHDGLQJ WRELJIORRGV DUH D IHZ H[DPSOHV RI WKH LPSDFWVRIFOLPDWH
FKDQJH7KHLQXQGDWLRQRIVRPH SDUWVRIWKHFRXQWU\IRULQVWDQFH-DNDUWD%D\KDV
FRPHWRSDVV,QGRQHVLD·VULFKELRGLYHUVLW\LVDOVRDWULVN,QWXUQWKLVPD\OHDGWR
KDUPIXO HIIHFWV RQ DJULFXOWXUH ILVKHU\ DQG IRUHVWU\ UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKUHDWV WR IRRG
VHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGV
,QGRQHVLD ZLOO KRVW WKH 
WK
&RQIHUHQFHRIWKH3DUWLHVWRWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV
)UDPHZRUN&RQYHQWLRQRQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH ZKLFKVHUYHV DVWKH7KLUG0HHWLQJRI

WKH3DUWLHVWRWKH.\RWR3URWRFROLQ%DOL'HFHPEHU7KLVUHSRUWKDVEHHQ
SUHSDUHGDVDQLQSXWWRWKH&23023RQWKHRFFDVLRQRI6LU1LFKRODV6WHUQ·VYLVLW
WR,QGRQHVLD7KHUHSRUWGLVFXVVHVHPLVVLRQVLPSDFWVDQGSROLF\FRQVWUDLQWVIDFHG
E\,QGRQHVLDWRFRSHZLWKFOLPDWHFKDQJH
(PLVVLRQV
,QGRQHVLDLVDPRQJWKHWRSWKUHH*+*HPLWWHUVLQWKHZRUOGGXHWRODQGXVHFKDQJH
DQG GHIRUHVWDWLRQ  ,QGRQHVLD KDV EHFRPH RQH RI WKH WKUHH ODUJHVW HPLWWHUV RI
JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV LQ WKH ZRUOG VHH 7DEOH  )LJXUH   7KLV LV ODUJHO\ GXH WR WKH
VLJQLILFDQW UHOHDVH RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH IURP GHIRUHVWDWLRQ  <HDUO\ HPLVVLRQV LQ
,QGRQHVLD IURP HQHUJ\ DJULFXOWXUH DQG ZDVWH DOO WRJHWKHU DUH DURXQG  PLOOLRQ
WRQV RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH HTXLYDOHQW 0W&2

H <HW ODQGXVH FKDQJH DQG IRUHVWU\
/8&)DORQHLVHVWLPDWHGWRUHOHDVHDERXW0W&2

H ² PRVWO\ IURP
GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DV HVWLPDWHG E\ WKH ,3&&+RXJKWRQFLWHGLQ%DXPHUWHW DO
 :KLOH GDWD RQ WKH HPLVVLRQV IURP GLIIHUHQW VRXUFHV GRHV YDU\ EHWZHHQ
VWXGLHVWKHRYHUDOOFRQFOXVLRQLVWKHVDPH,QGRQHVLDLVDPDMRUHPLWWHURI*+*V

Page 1Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
 DYHUDJH PDGH LW WKH FRXQWU\·V ZDUPHVW \HDU LQ WKH FHQWXU\ +XOPH HW DO

,QGRQHVLD ZLOO H[SHULHQFH PRUH LQWHQVH UDLQIDOO&OLPDWHFKDQJHLVSUHGLFWHGWR
UHVXOW LQSHUFHQWWR SHUFHQW PRUH UDLQIDOO SHU \HDULQ,QGRQHVLD5DWDJ LQ
6XVDQGL$V)LJXUHVKRZVWKHHQWLUHFRXQWU\ZLOOH[SHULHQFHPRUHUDLQIDOO
ZLWKWKHODUJHVWFKDQJHEHLQJLQWKH0ROXFFDV7KHLQFUHDVHGUDLQIDOOLVH[SHFWHGWR
FRQWLQXHDQGGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHUHVXOWLQDVKRUWHUUDLQ\VHDVRQIHZHUQXPEHU
RIUDLQ\GD\VLQD\HDUZLWKVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWKHULVNRIIORRGLQJ


)LJXUH7KH$YHUDJH&KDQJHRI3UHFLSLWDWLRQ3DWWHUQ6HSWHPEHU
2FWREHU1RYHPEHULQPP\HDUV5DWDJ

)RRG VHFXULW\ LQ ,QGRQHVLD ZLOO EH WKUHDWHQHG E\ FOLPDWH FKDQJH3HUKDSVWKH
ODUJHVW FRQFHUQIRU,QGRQHVLDZLWKUHJDUGV WR WKH LPSDFWV RI FOLPDWHFKDQJHLVWKH
ULVNRIGHFUHDVHGIRRGVHFXULW\&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOODOWHUSUHFLSLWDWLRQHYDSRUDWLRQ
UXQRIIZDWHUDQGVRLOPRLVWXUHKHQFHZLOOKDYHHIIHFWVRQDJULFXOWXUHDQGWKXVIRRG
VHFXULW\7KHGURXJKWVFDXVHGE\WKH(O1LQRHYHQWDIIHFWHGKHFWDUHVRI
ULFH,PSRUWDQWLQFRPHJHQHUDWLQJQRQIRRGFURSVVXFKDVFRIIHHFRFRDDQGUXEEHU
ZHUHDOVRDIIHFWHG)$23URMHFWHGFKDQJHVLQFURS\LHOGVLQ$VLDFRXOGYDU\
EHWZHHQSHUFHQWWRSHUFHQWE\WKHHQGRIWKHFHQWXU\LQWKHHYHQWRID
GRXEOLQJ RI DWPRVSKHULF FDUERQ GLR[LGH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 5HLOO\   $ PRGHO
VLPXODWLQJWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQFURSV*RGGDUG,QVWLWXWHRI6SDFH
6WXGLHV 8. 0HWHRURORJLFDO2IILFH VKRZV D GHFUHDVHRI FURS KDUYHVW LQ:HVW DQG
(DVW-DYD&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOOLNHO\UHGXFHVRLOIHUWLOLW\E\SHUFHQWWRSHUFHQW
UHVXOWLQJLQSURMHFWHGGHFUHDVHV RI ULFH\LHOGE\ SHUFHQW SHU\HDUVR\EHDQE\ 
SHUFHQWDQGPDL]HE\SHUFHQW$PLQDQG3DUU\DQG1LK
Page 4 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 2A
7DEOH*+*HPLVVLRQVVXPPDU\0W&2H


(PLVVLRQV
VRXUFHV
8QLWHG6WDWHV &KLQD ,QGRQHVLD %UD]LO 5XVVLD ,QGLD
(QHUJ\


     
$JULFXOWXUH



     
)RUHVWU\


     
:DVWH


     
7RWDO      
1RWH7KHWDEOHH[FOXGHV(8IURPWKHFRPSDULVRQDV(8FRPSULVHVFRXQWULHV,I(8DVDEORFNHQWHUVWKHFDOFXODWLRQ
,QGRQHVLDVWDQGV
WK
DQGWKHUDQNLQJDUH86(8&KLQDDQG,QGRQHVLD7KHGDWDIRUHQHUJ\HPLVVLRQVDUHIURP7KH
HQHUJ\GDWDXVHG,($·VDQQXDOVWDWLVWLFVH[FHSWIRU,QGRQHVLDZKHUH3,(VWDWLVWLFVDUHXVHG7KHGDWDIRU
DJULFXOWXUHHPLVVLRQVDUHIURPIURP86(3$%LRPDVVFRPEXVWLRQLVLQFOXGHGLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQ7KHGDWDIRU
IRUHVWU\/8/8&)HPLVVLRQVDUHIURPIURP+RXJKWRQ7KHGDWDIRUZDVWHHPLVVLRQVDUHIURPIURP86
(3$


)LJXUH7KH&RPSDULVRQRI*+*(PLVVLRQ

,QGRQHVLDLVKRVWWRYDVWIRUHVWHGDUHDV$ERXWELOOLRQWRQVRIFDUERQVWRFN%W&
DUHVWRUHGLQYHJHWDWLRQDQGVRLODQGSHUFHQWRIWKLVDERXW%W&LVVWRUHGLQ
WKHVWDQGLQJIRUHVW6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW%XWRXWRIWKHPLOOLRQ
KDRIIRUHVWDUHDDOPRVWKDOILVLQSRRUDQGGHJUDGHGFRQGLWLRQV'HSDUWHPHQ
.HKXWDQDQ 5,   /DQG XVH FKDQJH DQG GHIRUHVWDWLRQ HVWLPDWHG DW  PLOOLRQ
KHFWDUHVKDSHU\HDU:RUOG%DQNUHVXOWVLQWKHUHOHDVHRIDODUJHDPRXQWRI

,QGRQHVLD·VFDUERQUHVHUYRLU,QGHHGWKHHPLVVLRQVIURP/8/8&)QRWDEO\
GHIRUHVWDWLRQDFFRXQWIRUSHUFHQWRIWKH\HDUO\HPLVVLRQVRIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHVLQ
,QGRQHVLDDQGSHUFHQWRIJOREDO/8/8&)HPLVVLRQV
Page 2 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

,QGRQHVLDKDGEHFRPHWKH
WK
ODUJHVWJUHHQKRXVHJDV*+*HPLWWHULQWKHZRUOGE\
 ZLWK  PLOOLRQ WRQV RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH HTXLYDOHQW 0W&2H SHU \HDU
FRQWULEXWLQJSHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOG·VWRWDOHPLVVLRQVWKDW\HDU%DXPHUWHWDO
:LWKDOORWKHUQRQFDUERQ GLR[LGH*+*V LQFOXGHG0W&2H SHU\HDU LQ
WRWDO,QGRQHVLDZDV DOUHDG\UDQNHG WKLQ

%XW ZKHQHPLVVLRQVIURP ODQG
XVHODQGXVHFKDQJHDQGIRUHVWU\/8/8&)ZHUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWLPPHGLDWHO\
,QGRQHVLD·V SODFH MXPSHG WR EHFRPH WKH WKLUG ODUJHVW SROOXWHU LQ WKH ZRUOG
JHQHUDWLQJPRUHWKDQ0W&2HSHU\HDU

(PLVVLRQVIURP/8/8&)DFFRXQWHG
IRUSHUFHQWRIWKHWRWDOHPLVVLRQVRIWKHFRXQWU\
7KHLPSDFWVDUHGLUH3URORQJHGGURXJKWVLQFUHDVHGIUHTXHQF\RIH[WUHPHZHDWKHU
HYHQWVKHDY\UDLQIDOOOHDGLQJWRELJIORRGVDUHRQO\DIHZH[DPSOHVRIZKDWFOLPDWH
FKDQJHPD\EULQJ$QDUFKLSHODJLFFRXQWU\,QGRQHVLDLVYHU\YXOQHUDEOHWRVHD
OHYHO ULVH  4XLWH ODUJH SDUWV RI WKH FRXQWU\ LQFOXGLQJ WKH -DNDUWD ED\ ZLOO EH
LQXQGDWHG,QGRQHVLD·VULFKELRGLYHUVLW\LVDOVRXQGHUWKUHDW,QWXUQWKLVPD\OHDG
WRKDUPIXOHIIHFWVRQDJULFXOWXUHILVKHU\DQGIRUHVWU\VHFWRUVUHVXOWLQJLQLQFUHDVHG
WKUHDWWRIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ
,QGRQHVLD ZLOO KRVW WKH WK &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH 3DUWLHV WR WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV
)UDPHZRUN&RQYHQWLRQRQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH ZKLFKVHUYHV DVWKH7KLUG0HHWLQJRI
WKH3DUWLHVWRWKH.\RWR3URWRFRO&23023LQ%DOLLQ'HFHPEHU²$

PXOWLVWDNHKROGHUJURXSOHGE\WKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWLVFRQYHQHGWRSUHSDUH
IRUWKHFRQIHUHQFH$VHULHVRIHYHQWVZLOOWDNHSODFHGXULQJWKHOHDGXSWRWKH&23
LQFOXGLQJ D YLVLW E\ 6LU 1LFKRODV 6WHUQ DXWKRU RI WKH UHFHQW PDMRU UHSRUW RQ WKH
HFRQRPLFVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH+RVWLQJ&23023DVZHOODVDYLVLWE\6WHUQUHYHDOD
VSHFLDORSSRUWXQLW\IRU,QGRQHVLDWRDGGUHVVWKHLVVXHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH


6L[*+*UHJXODWHGXQGHU$QQH[$RIWKH.\RWR3URWRFRODUHFDUERQGLR[LGH&2PHWKDQH&+QLWURXV
R[LGH12DQGWKHWKUHHLQGXVWULDOIOXRULQDWHGJDVHVQDPHO\SHUIOXRURFDUERQ3)&K\GURIOXRURFDUERQ
+)&DQG6)

7KLVQXPEHULVGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHFRQVXOWDQW·VFRPSLODWLRQZKLFKLVDERXW0W&2H'DWDIURP:RUOG
5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH·V&$,7DFFHVVHGLQ0DUFK
Page 9Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 4A

6HD OHYHO ULVH ZLOO LQXQGDWH SURGXFWLYH FRDVWDO ]RQHV  &OLPDWH FKDQJH ZLOO DOVR
LQFUHDVHWKHDYHUDJHVHDOHYHOGXHWRLQFUHDVHGYROXPHRIWKHVHDZDWHUDQGWKH
PHOWLQJRISRODULFHFDSV7KHPHDQVHDOHYHOLQWKH-DNDUWD%D\ZLOOLQFUHDVHDVKLJK
DVFHQWLPHWHUVFPSHU\HDU7KHDYHUDJHGHSWKRILQXQGDWHGDUHDYDULHV
EHWZHHQDQGLQ 0HOLDQD 7KLVFRXSOHGZLWK WKHODQG VXUIDFH
GHFOLQH DV KLJK DV  FP SHU \HDU DV REVHUYHG LQ WKH -DNDUWD %D\ FDQ KDYH D
WUHPHQGRXV LPSDFW RQ XUEDQ SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH 3ULDPERGR 
$OVRLQUXUDOGLVWULFWVVXFKDV.UDZDQJDQG6XEDQJDSHUFHQWUHGXFWLRQLQORFDO
ULFHVXSSO\GRZQWRQVLVHVWLPDWHGDVDUHVXOWRILQXQGDWLRQRIWKHFRDVWDO
]RQH ,QWKH VDPHGLVWULFWVPDL]HRXWSXWZRXOGEHUHGXFHGE\WRQVDERXW
KDOIRIWKLVGXHWRLQXQGDWLRQ
6HDOHYHOULVHZLOOUHGXFHIDUPLQJDQGFRDVWDOOLYHOLKRRGV6HDOHYHOULVHZRXOGDOVR
EHOLNHO\WRDIIHFWILVKDQGSUDZQSURGXFWLRQ,QWKH.UDZDQJDQG6XEDQJGLVWULFWV
WKHORVVLVHVWLPDWHGDWRYHUWRQVDQGWRQVUHVSHFWLYHO\YDOXHGDWRYHU

86  PLOOLRQ  ,Q WKH ORZHU &LWDUXP %DVLQ VHDOHYHO ULVH FRXOG UHVXOW LQ WKH
LQXQGDWLRQRIDERXWKDRISRQGVDQGKDRIFURSODQG7KLVFRXOGUHVXOW
LQWKHORVVRIWRQVRIILVKVKULPSDQGSUDZQVRXWSXWDQGDERXWWRQV
RIULFHSURGXFWLRQ
7KH RYHUDOO HIIHFW ZRXOG EH WR UHGXFH SRWHQWLDO DYHUDJH LQFRPH  7KH HVWLPDWHG
UHGXFWLRQRI\LHOGZRXOGFRVWWKHULFHIDUPHU86WR86DQQXDOO\WKHVR\EHDQ
IDUPHU86WR86DQGWKHPDL]HFRUQIDUPHU86WR86DQQXDOO\,W
LV HVWLPDWHG WKDW WKH GHFUHDVH LQ \LHOG ZRXOG FDXVH LQ WKH 6XEDQJ 'LVWULFW DORQH
DERXWIDUPODERUHUVWRORVHWKHLUMREV,QDGGLWLRQPRUHWKDQIDUPHUV
ZRXOGKDYHWRORRNIRURWKHUVRXUFHVRILQFRPHGXHWRWKHLQXQGDWLRQRIWKHLUULFH
ILHOGVRUSUDZQDQGILVKIDUPVGXHWRVHDOHYHOULVH3DUU\1LK
7KHZDUPLQJRIRFHDQZDWHUZLOODIIHFW PDULQHELRGLYHUVLW\&OLPDWHFKDQJH ZLOO
VXEMHFW,QGRQHVLD·VRFHDQZDWHUWRDQLQFUHDVHLQWHPSHUDWXUHRIWR
R
&7KH
 NP

 RI FRUDO UHHIV LQ ,QGRQHVLD DERXW  SHUFHQW RI WKH ZRUOG·V WRWDO DUH
DOUHDG\LQGLUHVWUDLWV7KH(O1LQRHYHQWLQ²DORQHZDVHVWLPDWHGWRKDYH
FDXVHGFRUDOEOHDFKLQJWRSHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOG·VFRUDOUHHI,QDVXUYH\RQO\
 SHUFHQW RI ,QGRQHVLD·V FRUDO UHHIV DUH LQ H[FHOOHQW FRQGLWLRQ  SHUFHQW LQ JRRG
FRQGLWLRQDQGWKHUHPDLQLQJSHUFHQWDUHLQIDLUWRSRRUFRQGLWLRQ-RKQ+RSNLQV
8QLYHUVLW\DQG7HUDQJL$VXUYH\LQWKH%DOL%DUDW1DWLRQDO3DUNIRXQGWKDWD
PDMRULW\RIFRUDOUHHIV ZHUH LQSRRUFRQGLWLRQ 0RUH WKDQ KDOIRIWKHGHJUDGDWLRQ
ZDV GXH WR FRUDO EOHDFKLQJ  7KLV SXWVWKH%DOL%DUDW1DWLRQDO3DUNDVD
FDWDVWURSKLFDOO\DIIHFWHG VLWH :LONLQVRQ  LQ6HWLDVLK  ,Q 3DUL LVODQG LQ
WKH7KRXVDQG,VODQGV1DWLRQDO3DUN²SHUFHQWRIWKHFRUDOUHHIVZHUHIRXQG
EOHDFKHGLQ,UGH]LQ6HWLDVLK
&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOLQWHQVLI\ZDWHUDQGYHFWRUERUQHGLVHDVHV,QWKHODWHV
(O1LQRDQG/D1LQDZHUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRXWEUHDNVRIPDODULDGHQJXHDQGSODJXH

Page 5Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
,QSUHSDUDWLRQIRUWKH6WHUQYLVLWDVZHOODVWRVHUYHDVDQLQSXWWRWKH&23023
SURFHVVWKH'HSDUWPHQW)RU,QWHUQDWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW'),'RIWKH*RYHUQPHQW
RIWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP DQG WKH:RUOG%DQNVSRQVRUHG WKLV EDFNJURXQGSDSHURQ
,QGRQHVLDDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH$EULHIFDOOIRUVKRUWWHUPFRQVXOWDQF\RIGD\VWR
SUHSDUHDVXPPDU\SDSHURQ,QGRQHVLDDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHKDVEHHQPDGHWRNH\
UHVHDUFKHUVRI373HODQJL(QHUJL$EDGL&LWUD(QYLUR7KHSXUSRVHRIWKHSDSHULVWR
SURYLGHWKHPRVWXSWRGDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ,QGRQHVLDDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHWKDWFDQ
VHUYHDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUIXUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQVRQWKHLVVXH
7KHSDSHULVDFRPSLODWLRQRIDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGGDWDDQGGRHVQRWLQYROYH
UHFDOFXODWLQJ RU UHPRGHOLQJ RI H[LVWLQJ GDWD  6HYHUDO WRROV GHYHORSHG E\
LQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHDUFKRUJDQL]DWLRQVDUHXVHGDVDVRXUFHRILQIRUPDWLRQRUDEDVHRI
LQWHUSRODWLRQ DORQJ ZLWK RWKHU DYDLODEOH RIILFLDO GDWD IURP UHOHYDQW GHSDUWPHQWDO
DJHQFLHV 8QRIILFLDOGDWDDUHXWLOL]HG ZKHUH RIILFLDO GDWD DUHQRWDYDLODEOH:KHQ
DYDLODEOHWKHPHWKRGRORJ\EHKLQGWKHGDWDXVHGLVDVVHVVHGIRUVFLHQWLILFFUHGLELOLW\
+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHVRPHFDVHVZKHUHGHWDLOHGH[SODQDWLRQVZHUHQRWSURYLGHG
,QDGGLWLRQWZR5RXQGWDEOH'LVFXVVLRQVZHUHRUJDQL]HGGXULQJWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRI
WKHSDSHU7KHILUVW5RXQGWDEOHZDVKHOGRQ0DUFKWRREWDLQVRXUFHVRIGDWD
DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP UHOHYDQW GHSDUWPHQWDO DJHQFLHV QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO
RUJDQL]DWLRQV 1*2V DQG UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWLRQV  7KH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH IURP WKH
6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWWKH0LQLVWU\RI (QHUJ\DQG 0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV WKH
0LQLVWU\RI+HDOWKWKH0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF,QIUDVWUXFWXUHWKH0LQLVWU\RI0DULQHDQG
)LVKHULHV WKH %DQGXQJ ,QVWLWXWH RI 7HFKQRORJ\ WKH *HRSK\VLFV DQG 0HWHRURORJ\
$JHQF\ WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI )RUHVWU\ DQG 1*2V VXFK DV <D\DVDQ 3HODQJL ,QGRQHVLD
*UHHQSHDFH &RQVHUYDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO ,QGRQHVLD DV ZHOO DV LQWHUQDWLRQDO
LQVWLWXWLRQVVXFKDVWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU5HVHDUFKRQ$JUR)RUHVWU\,&5$)
DQG:HWODQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDO7KHVHFRQG5RXQGWDEOH'LVFXVVLRQZDVKHOGLQ0DUFK
ZKHUHDGUDIWSDSHUZDVSUHVHQWHGDQGGLVFXVVHGE\WKHVDPHSDUWLFLSDQWV
SULRUWRWKHGHOLYHU\RIWKHSDSHU
7KHSDSHUFRPSULVHVVHFWLRQVVWDUWLQJZLWKVHFWRUDOJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQV,WLV

WKHQIROORZHGE\DVHFWLRQRQFXUUHQWDQGSRVVLEOHFOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSDFWVWR
,QGRQHVLD7KHWKLUGVHFWLRQKLJKOLJKWVVHYHUDONH\JDSVLQSROLFLHVDQGPHFKDQLVPV
LQVHFWRUVUHODWHGWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHODVWVHFWLRQFRQFOXGHVWKLVSDSHU
Page 10 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 4B
0DODULDKDVVSUHDGWRKLJKHOHYDWLRQVZKHUHLWZDVGHWHFWHGIRUWKHILUVWWLPHDVKLJK
DVPLQWKHKLJKODQGVRI,ULDQ-D\DLQ(SVWHLQHWDO,QLW
DSSHDUHG WKDW DPRUH YLUXOHQW VWUDLQ RI WKHSRWHQWLDOO\ GHDGO\ GHQJXH IHYHU YLUXV
PD\KDYHHPHUJHG'HQJXHIHYHUKDVEHHQVSUHDGLQJIDVWHUDQGNLOOLQJPRUHYLFWLPV
WKDQLQSDVW\HDUV
7KHOLQNVEHWZHHQFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGWKHVHGLVHDVHVDQGKHDOWKSUREOHPVLVSRRUO\
UHVHDUFKHG7KH,3&&·V)RXUWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWVWDWHGWKDWWKHUHLVWRROLWWOH
GDWDWRUHOLDEO\FRQILUPSHUFHSWLRQVRIDQLQFUHDVHLQH[WUHPHZHDWKHUHYHQWVZKLFK
PD\EHGXHWRLQFUHDVHGUHSRUWLQJ+RZHYHUSHUKDSVDVDIRUHZDUQLQJRIZKDWLVWR
FRPH WKH ULVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI GHQJXH IHYHU FDVHV GXULQJ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQV LQ
,QGRQHVLD SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ -DYD FRXOG KDYH EHHQ SDUWLDOO\ FDXVHG E\ ZDUPHU
FOLPDWHV5HVHDUFKKDVFRQILUPHGWKDWZDUPHU WHPSHUDWXUH KDV OHGWRPXWDWLRQRI
WKHGHQJXHYLUXVPDNLQJFDVHVPRUHGLIILFXOWWRKDQGOHWKXVOHDGLQJWRDQLQFUHDVH
LQIDWDOLWLHV
,PSDFWV ZLOO EH XQHYHQ DFURVV WKH FRXQWU\ EXW UHVXOW LQ VLJQLILFDQW HFRQRPLF
GDPDJHDQGORVVRIOLYHOLKRRGV)RUH[DPSOHWKHHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVRI IRUHVWILUHV
DUHHVWLPDWHGWRFRVW DQ DQQXDO86ELOOLRQ IURP GURXJKWV DQGILUHV$SSOHJDWH
0D\  DQG 86  ELOOLRQ IURP KD]H UHODWHG FRVWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW
5HVHDUFK&HQWHU
7KHUHLVQRSURYHQHYLGHQFH\HWWKDWLQWHQVHDQGPRUHIUHTXHQW(O1LQRDQG/D1LQD
HYHQWVDUHFDXVHGE\RUDUHFDXVLQJFOLPDWHFKDQJH%XWWKHVHHYHQWVFDQEHDJRRG
SUR[\IRUORRNLQJDWWKHGDPDJHWKDWFRXOGRFFXUGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHUDUH
HYHQWVFRXOGEHFRPHWKHQRUPDVWKHZRUOGZLOOJHWSHUPDQHQWO\ZDUPHU
3ROLF\DQGFDSDFLW\FRQVWUDLQWV
,QGRQHVLDVLJQHGWKH.\RWR3URWRFROLQDQGUDWLILHGLWLQWKURXJK/DZ1R

  6LQFH WKHQ D ORW KDV KDSSHQHG QRWDEO\ LQ WKH ILHOG RI WKH FOHDQ
GHYHORSPHQWPHFKDQLVP&'0DOWKRXJKOHVVVRLQWKHRWKHUILHOGV
)RUHVWU\SROLFLHVDQGOHJLVODWLRQDUHJRRGEXWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGHQIRUFHPHQWDUH
ZHDN 7KHUHDUH PDQ\ JRRG SROLFLHVDQGOHJLVODWLRQVWKDW IDYRU VXVWDLQDEOHIRUHVW
PDQDJHPHQW LQ ,QGRQHVLD  8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH FDSDFLW\ RI WKH JRYHUQPHQW WR
LPSOHPHQWDQGHQIRUFHODZVLVZHDN)RUH[DPSOHWKURXJK3UHVLGHQWLDO,QVWUXFWLRQ
1R,QGRQHVLDFRGLILHVDQGUHLQIRUFHVWKHFRPPLWPHQWWRILJKWIRUHVWFULPH
7KH GHFUHHGLUHFWV HLJKWHHQ DJHQFLHV WR FRRSHUDWHLQ WKH FRQWURO RI LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ
DQGWKHSURVHFXWLRQRIIRUHVWFULPHVLQFOXGLQJWKH&RRUGLQDWLQJ0LQLVWU\RI3ROLWLFDO
DQG 6HFXULW\ $IIDLUV WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI )RUHVWU\ WKH 1DWLRQDO 3ROLFH DQG ILQDQFLDO
VHFWRU UHJXODWRUV  $Q RUGHU RI WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI +RPH $IIDLUV KDV FDOOHG IRU
FRRSHUDWLRQ DW WKH GLVWULFW JRYHUQPHQW OHYHO DQG KDV SURKLELWHG IXUWKHU JUDQWV RI
ORJJLQJFRQFHVVLRQVDWWKDWOHYHO2IILFLDOVIURP3ROLFHDQG3URVHFXWRUV2IILFHKDYH
Page 6 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

EHHQVWDWLRQHGDWWKH0LQLVWU\RI)RUHVWU\EXWWKHUHLVVWLOODQHHGIRUPRUHGHWDLOHG
SODQV EXGJHWV LQIRUPDWLRQ VKDULQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV DQG VWDQGDUG SURWRFROV :RUOG
%DQN
7KHSROLF\WRH[SDQGELRIXHOSURGXFWLRQLVVWLOOULVN\DQGSUREOHPDWLF,QGRQHVLDLV
SURJUHVVLQJWRZDUGVH[SDQGLQJELRIXHOSURGXFWLRQERWKIRUGRPHVWLFXVHLQRUGHU
WRUHGXFHRLOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGIRUH[SRUWGXHWRPHHWVWURQJGHPDQGHVSHFLDOO\LQ
(XURSH%LRHWKDQROLVFXUUHQWO\SURGXFHGXVLQJPDLQO\VXJDUDQGFDVVDYDDV
IHHGVWRFNVZKHUHDVELRGLHVHOLVGHYHORSHGXVLQJFUXGHSDOPRLO&32VWHDULQWKH
QRQHGLEOHE\SURGXFWVRI&32-DWURSKDFXUFDVDQGRWKHUV
,QELRGLHVHOIURPRLOSDOPLQ,QGRQHVLDLVSURMHFWHGWRUHDFKPLOOLRQOLWHUV
RU  SHUFHQW RI GLHVHO FRQVXPSWLRQ UHTXLULQJ DERXW  KD RI RLO SDOP
SODQWDWLRQV'HPDQGIRUELRGLHVHOLVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHLQZKHQLWUHDFKHV
 PLOOLRQ OLWHUV RU  SHUFHQW RI WRWDO GLHVHO FRQVXPSWLRQ  7KLV ZLOO QHHG 
PLOOLRQKHFWDUHVRIRLO SDOP SODQWDWLRQV²DERXW WLPHV WKHDUHDRI WKH LVODQG RI
%DOL-DWURSKDFXUFDVFDQJURZLQGHJUDGHGODQGVDQGSURPLVHVDJRRGSRWHQWLDOWR

UHIRUHVWWKHGHJUDGHGDUHDVZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPHSURYLGLQJOLYHOLKRRGVWRWKHSRRU
OLYLQJQHDUGHJUDGHGDUHDVDQGUHGXFLQJWKHXVHRISHWURGLHVHO
+RZHYHU WKH ULVNV RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ ² DQG WR VRPH H[WHQW ODQG XVH FRQIOLFWV ZLWK
ELRIXHOV²KDYHQRWEHHQWKRURXJKO\DVVHVVHG+LVWRULFDOO\RLOSDOPSURGXFWLRQLQ
,QGRQHVLDKDVEHHQDPDMRUGULYHURIGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
7KH SROLF\ WR UDSLGO\ H[SDQG WKH XVH RI FRDO ZLOO LQFUHDVH HPLVVLRQV IXUWKHU
,QGRQHVLDJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQVIURPFRDOEXUQLQJE\WKH\HDUZLOOEH
WLPHVKLJKHUWKDQLQRUWLPHVKLJKHUWKDQDOOHQHUJ\VHFWRUHPLVVLRQVIRUWKH
VDPH \HDU +XWDSHD   7KH GHFLVLRQ WR UDSLGO\ H[SDQG FRDOILUHG SRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQE\0:LQ-DYDDORQHPD\LQFUHDVHWKHVHHPLVVLRQVHYHQIXUWKHU
5HQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVDUHXQGHUGHYHORSHGZLWKEDUULHUVEXWIHZLQFHQWLYHV$W
WKH VDPH WLPH WKHUH DUH EDUULHUV EXW IHZ LQFHQWLYHV LQ ,QGRQHVLD IRU WKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\'HYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\KDVVORZHGLI
QRWKDOWHG:KLOHHQHUJ\SROLFLHVPD\FDOOIRUGHYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHV
VXSSRUWLQJLQVWUXPHQWVVXFKDVILVFDODQGILQDQFLDOLQFHQWLYHVKDYHQRWEHHQIXOO\
GHYHORSHG7DEOHVKRZVWKHVPDOODPRXQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\DFWXDOO\XWLOL]HG
FRPSDUHG WR WKH SRWHQWLDO  7KLV LV YHU\ GLIIHUHQW IURP &KLQD DQG ,QGLD ZKHUH
SROLFLHV WR IRVWHU GHYHORSPHQW RI UHQHZDEOH VRXUFHV KDYH EHHQ VWURQJO\
LPSOHPHQWHG



Page 7Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 3B

7KLVVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHV,QGRQHVLDQDQWKURSRJHQLF*+*HPLVVLRQV7KHNH\HPLWWLQJ
VHFWRUVIRUHVWU\HQHUJ\DJULFXOWXUH DQG OLYHVWRFN ZDVWHDUHGLVFXVVHGEHORZ
7KH VHFWLRQ FRQFOXGHV ZLWK D FRPSDULVRQ RI ,QGRQHVLDQ HPLVVLRQV ZLWK RWKHU
FRXQWULHV
)25(676$1'/$1'86(

7KLV VHFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV WKH FXUUHQW FRQGLWLRQ RI ,QGRQHVLD·V IRUHVW FRYHU DQG LWV
FKDQJHV WKH XQGHUO\LQJ FDXVHV RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG LWV UHODWLRQ WR WKH FOLPDWH
FKDQJHHVWLPDWLRQRIFDUERQVWRFNDQGFDUERQHPLVVLRQFRPSDULVRQRIHPLVVLRQWR
RWKHU FRXQWULHV DQG WKH HVWLPDWHG HPLVVLRQ WUHQGV IURP WKLV VRFDOOHG /DQG 8VH
/DQGXVH&KDQJHDQG)RUHVWU\/8/8&)VHFWRU7KHVRXUFHVRIFDUERQVWRFNFRPH
IURP IRUHVW FRYHU LQFOXGLQJ SHDWODQG IRUHVW ZRRGODQG DJURIRUHVWU\ SODQWDWLRQ
IDOORZ ODQG JUDVVODQG VKLIWLQJ FXOWLYDWLRQJDUGHQ KRXVLQJ FRPSRXQG DQG
VXUURXQGLQJ DQG PL[HG XQSURGXFWLYH ODQGV  (PLVVLRQV IURP WKH IRUHVWU\ VHFWRU
RFFXUDVFDUERQVWRFNLVGHSOHWHGDQGUHOHDVHGWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHFDXVHGE\FKDQJHV
LQ IRUHVW DQG RWKHU ZRRG\ ELRPDVV VWRFN IRUHVW DQG JUDVV ODQG FRQYHUVLRQ
DEDQGRQPHQWRIPDQDJHGODQGDQGIRUHVWILUHV7KHGDWDXVHGDUHPDLQO\IURPWKH
0LQLVWU\ RI)RUHVWU\ WKH :RUOG 5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWH WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI (QYLURQPHQW
)RUHVW:DWFK,QGRQHVLDDQG:HWODQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RPSDULVRQVRIFDUERQ
HPLVVLRQVIURP/8/8&)DPRQJFRXQWULHVDUHSUHVHQWHGXVLQJJUDSKLFVDQGFKDUWV
GHYHORSHG XVLQJ WKH &OLPDWH $QDO\VLV ,QGLFDWRU 7RROV &$,7 9HUVLRQ  RI WKH
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH
,QWHUPVRIGDWDYDOLGLW\GLIIHUHQFHVLQGHILQLWLRQVRIODQGXVHW\SHDQG
PHDVXUHPHQW PHWKRGRORJ\ EHFDPHWKH PDLQ FDXVH RIGDWD LQFRQVLVWHQF\ EHWZHHQ
WKH SHDWODQG FDUERQ HPLVVLRQV IURP WKH :HWODQGV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO DQG WKH ODQG XVH
FKDQJHDQGIRUHVWU\/8&)HPLVVLRQVGDWDIURPWKH:5,)RUIRUHVWFRYHUGDWDWKH
VWXG\XVHVWKHRIILFLDOGDWDIURPWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI)RUHVWU\LQ7KHHPLVVLRQ
SURMHFWLRQV IRU   WR  LQ WKLV VWXG\ XVH WKH FDUERQ VWRFN GDWD IURP
6DWKD\H HW DO LQ  KRZHYHU WKHUH DUH QR RWKHU GDWD DYDLODEOH WR FRPSDUH WKH
DFFXUDF\RIWKHSURMHFWLRQV

Page 11Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies







7DEOH,QGRQHVLDQ5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3RWHQWLDO&RPSDUHGWR,QVWDOOHG&DSDFLW\
'*((8
7KHRQO\LPSURYHPHQWPD\KDYHRFFXUUHGLQHQHUJ\FRQVHUYDWLRQ(QHUJ\SULFLQJ
SROLF\  WKDW JUDGXDOO\ UHPRYHG VXEVLGLHV IURP HOHFWULFLW\ DQG IXHO ² KDV KHOSHG
LQFUHDVHFRQVHUYDWLRQRIHQHUJ\(QHUJ\LQWHQVLW\KDVDOVREHHQFRQVWDQWO\UHGXFHG
RYHUWLPH
,QGRQHVLDKDVQRW\HWEHHQDEOHWRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQWKH&OHDQ
'HYHORSPHQW0HFKDQLVP,QGRQHVLDKDVDWOHDVW0W&2

HRIHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ
SRWHQWLDO WKDW FDQ EH GHYHORSHG DV &'0 SURMHFWV UDQJLQJ IURP UHGXFWLRQ RI JDV
IODULQJLQODUJHRLODQGJDVIDFLOLWLHVWRGHYHORSPHQWRIJHRWKHUPDODQGRWKHUFOHDQ
DQGUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVWRSURGXFWLRQRIELRJDVIURPDJULFXOWXUHDQGDQLPDO
ZDVWH
+RZHYHUDWSUHVHQWRQO\  SURMHFWVKDYHUHFHLYHGDSSURYDO IURP WKH 'HVLJQDWHG
1DWLRQDO&'0$XWKRULW\'1$2IWKHVHHLJKWKDYHEHHQUHJLVWHUHGE\WKH
([HFXWLYH %RDUG RI &'0 ZLWK D SRWHQWLDO WR SURGXFH  0W&2

H  )URP WKH
UHJLVWHUHG SURMHFWV PRVW DUH UHQHZDEOH DQG ZDVWH PDQDJHPHQW SURMHFWV 81(3
5,62(&RPSDUHGZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWKLVLVQRWVLJQLILFDQW
,QGRQHVLDLVQRW\HWDGHTXDWHO\SUHSDULQJIRUDGDSWDWLRQWRIXWXUHFOLPDWHHYHQWV
7KHLPSRUWDQFHRIDGDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHKDVDOUHDG\EHHQDFNQRZOHGJHGLQ
WKH FRXQWU\·V 0LG7HUP 1DWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW 3ODQ  &KDSWHU  RI WKH 3ODQ
PHQWLRQV WKDW ,QGRQHVLD VKDOO ´LPSURYH QDWLRQDO FDSDFLW\ LQ DGDSWLQJ FOLPDWH
FKDQJHLVVXHVLQWRGHYHORSPHQWDVSHFWVµ
&XUUHQWO\DGUDIWRIWKH1DWLRQDO6WUDWHJ\RQ$GDSWDWLRQKDVEHHQFRPSOHWHG7KH
GUDIWFRQWDLQVDFRPSLODWLRQRIUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIDGDSWDWLRQLVVXHV

WKDW QHHG WR UHYLVHG DQG H[SDQGHG ZLWK LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ H[SHULHQFH RI 81)&&&
PHWKRGRORJ\$WSUHVHQWWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWLVILQDOL]LQJWKHVWUDWHJ\LQ
WLPHIRUWKH&23PHHWLQJ2WKHU0LQLVWULHVKDYH\HWWRIROORZWKURXJKE\
LPSOHPHQWLQJUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVUHVXOWLQJLQZHDN SUHSDUHGQHVVIRUDGDSWDWLRQWR
IXWXUHFOLPDWHHYHQWV
5HQHZDEOH6RXUFHV 3RWHQWLDO ,QVWDOOHG&DSDFLW\
+\GUR
 *:  0:
*HRWKHUPDO
 *:  0:
0LQLPLFURK\GUR
 *:  0:
%LRPDVV
 *:  0:
6RODU
 N:KP

GD\  0:
:LQG
 PV  0:
Page 8 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 3A

&XUUHQW6WDWXV
)RUHVWV SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH JOREDO FDUERQ F\FOH EHFDXVH WKH\ VWRUH ODUJH
TXDQWLWLHV RI FDUERQLQ YHJHWDWLRQ DQG VRLO H[FKDQJH FDUERQ ZLWK WKH DWPRVSKHUH
WKURXJK SKRWRV\QWKHVLV DQG UHVSLUDWLRQ EXW WKH\ DUH DOVR FDQ EHFRPH VRXUFHV RI
DWPRVSKHULF FDUERQ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH GLVWXUEHG E\ KXPDQ RU QDWXUDO FDXVHV HJ
ZLOGILUHVXVHRISRRUKDUYHVWLQJSURFHGXUHVFOHDUHGDQGEXUQHGIRUFRQYHUVLRQWR
QRQIRUHVW XVHV LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ DQG EHFRPH DWPRVSKHULF FDUERQ VLQNV LH QHW

WUDQVIHURI&2IURPWKHDWPRVSKHUHWRWKHODQGGXULQJODQGDEDQGRQPHQWDQGUH
JURZWKDIWHUGLVWXUEDQFH%URZQ
7RGDWH,QGRQHVLDKRXVHVWKHWKLUGODUJHVWWURSLFDOIRUHVWDIWHU%UD]LODQGWKH&RQJR
%DVLQ%DVHGRQWKHGDWDIURPWKH)RUHVW3ODQQLQJ$JHQF\WKHH[WHQWDUHDRI
ODQG FRYHU LQVLGH DQG RXWVLGH IRUHVW DUHD XS WR  LV  PLOOLRQ KD DV
DUHDLVGHJUDGHGDQGVRPHDUHDVDUHLQFULWLFDOFRQGLWLRQ


)RUHVW$UHDLQ+D
3HUPDQHQW)RUHVW
&ULWHULD
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
$UHD
3URWHFWHG
)RUHVW
/LPLWHG
3URGXFWLRQ
)RUHVW
3URGXFWLRQ
)RUHVW
&RQYHUVLRQ
3URGXFWLRQ
)RUHVW
2WKHU
XVHV
7RWDO
LQ
+D
$)RUHVW
      

%1RQ)RUHVW
      
&'DWD
'HILFLHQF\
      
7RWDO       
7DEOH)RUHVW)LJXUHVLQ,QGRQHVLD

'HSDUWHPHQ.HKXWDQDQ5,
$VLGHIURPWKH FXUUHQWIRUHVWFRYHUVDERYHWKHUH DUHDOVRD IDFWWKDWGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
UDWHLQ,QGRQHVLDKDVEHHQLQFUHDVLQJVLJQLILFDQWO\)RUHVW:DWFK,QGRQHVLD*OREDO
)RUHVW :DWFK TXRWLQJ GDWD IURP +ROPHV  SUHVHQWV WKH ORVV RI ORZODQG DQG
RWKHUGRPLQDQWIRUHVWW\SHVLQWKHWKUHHLVODQGVEHWZHHQDQG,QGRQHVLD·V
ORZODQGWURSLFDOIRUHVWVWKHULFKHVWLQWLPEHUUHVRXUFHVDQGELRGLYHUVLW\DUHPRVWDW
ULVN 7KH\ KDYH EHHQ DOPRVW HQWLUHO\ FOHDUHG LQ 6XODZHVL DQG DUH SUHGLFWHG WR
GLVDSSHDU LQ 6XPDWUD E\  DQG .DOLPDQWDQ E\  LI FXUUHQW WUHQGV FRQWLQXH
):,*):)LJXUHEHORZVKRZWKHH[WHQWRIGHIRUHVWDWLRQLQ.DOLPDQWDQ
XSWR



7KHWDEOHZDVSURGXFHGIURPWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVDWHOOLWHLPDJHODQGVDW(70
SUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH EHORZ5HJUHWWDEO\DOPRVWSHUFHQWPLOOLRQKDRIWKH


Page 12 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

,QGRQHVLDKDGEHFRPHWKH
WK
ODUJHVWJUHHQKRXVHJDV*+*HPLWWHULQWKHZRUOGE\

 ZLWK  PLOOLRQ WRQV RI FDUERQ GLR[LGH HTXLYDOHQW 0W&2H SHU \HDU
FRQWULEXWLQJSHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOG·VWRWDOHPLVVLRQVWKDW\HDU%DXPHUWHWDO
:LWKDOORWKHUQRQFDUERQ GLR[LGH*+*V LQFOXGHG0W&2H SHU\HDU LQ
WRWDO,QGRQHVLDZDV DOUHDG\UDQNHG WKLQ

%XW ZKHQHPLVVLRQVIURP ODQG
XVHODQGXVHFKDQJHDQGIRUHVWU\/8/8&)ZHUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWLPPHGLDWHO\
,QGRQHVLD·V SODFH MXPSHG WR EHFRPH WKH WKLUG ODUJHVW SROOXWHU LQ WKH ZRUOG
JHQHUDWLQJPRUHWKDQ0W&2HSHU\HDU

(PLVVLRQVIURP/8/8&)DFFRXQWHG
IRUSHUFHQWRIWKHWRWDOHPLVVLRQVRIWKHFRXQWU\
7KHLPSDFWVDUHGLUH3URORQJHGGURXJKWVLQFUHDVHGIUHTXHQF\RIH[WUHPHZHDWKHU
HYHQWVKHDY\UDLQIDOOOHDGLQJWRELJIORRGVDUHRQO\DIHZH[DPSOHVRIZKDWFOLPDWH
FKDQJHPD\EULQJ$QDUFKLSHODJLFFRXQWU\,QGRQHVLDLVYHU\YXOQHUDEOHWRVHD
OHYHO ULVH  4XLWH ODUJH SDUWV RI WKH FRXQWU\ LQFOXGLQJ WKH -DNDUWD ED\ ZLOO EH
LQXQGDWHG,QGRQHVLD·VULFKELRGLYHUVLW\LVDOVRXQGHUWKUHDW,QWXUQWKLVPD\OHDG
WRKDUPIXOHIIHFWVRQDJULFXOWXUHILVKHU\DQGIRUHVWU\VHFWRUVUHVXOWLQJLQLQFUHDVHG
WKUHDWWRIRRGVHFXULW\DQGOLYHOLKRRGVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ
,QGRQHVLD ZLOO KRVW WKH WK &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH 3DUWLHV WR WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV
)UDPHZRUN&RQYHQWLRQRQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH ZKLFKVHUYHV DVWKH7KLUG0HHWLQJRI
WKH3DUWLHVWRWKH.\RWR3URWRFRO&23023LQ%DOLLQ'HFHPEHU²$
PXOWLVWDNHKROGHUJURXSOHGE\WKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWLVFRQYHQHGWRSUHSDUH
IRUWKHFRQIHUHQFH$VHULHVRIHYHQWVZLOOWDNHSODFHGXULQJWKHOHDGXSWRWKH&23
LQFOXGLQJ D YLVLW E\ 6LU 1LFKRODV 6WHUQ DXWKRU RI WKH UHFHQW PDMRU UHSRUW RQ WKH
HFRQRPLFVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH+RVWLQJ&23023DVZHOODVDYLVLWE\6WHUQUHYHDOD
VSHFLDORSSRUWXQLW\IRU,QGRQHVLDWRDGGUHVVWKHLVVXHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH


6L[*+*UHJXODWHGXQGHU$QQH[$RIWKH.\RWR3URWRFRODUHFDUERQGLR[LGH&2PHWKDQH&+QLWURXV

R[LGH12DQGWKHWKUHHLQGXVWULDOIOXRULQDWHGJDVHVQDPHO\SHUIOXRURFDUERQ3)&K\GURIOXRURFDUERQ
+)&DQG6)

7KLVQXPEHULVGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHFRQVXOWDQW·VFRPSLODWLRQZKLFKLVDERXW0W&2H'DWDIURP:RUOG
5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH·V&$,7DFFHVVHGLQ0DUFK
Page 9Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 4A

6HD OHYHO ULVH ZLOO LQXQGDWH SURGXFWLYH FRDVWDO ]RQHV  &OLPDWH FKDQJH ZLOO DOVR
LQFUHDVHWKHDYHUDJHVHDOHYHOGXHWRLQFUHDVHGYROXPHRIWKHVHDZDWHUDQGWKH
PHOWLQJRISRODULFHFDSV7KHPHDQVHDOHYHOLQWKH-DNDUWD%D\ZLOOLQFUHDVHDVKLJK
DVFHQWLPHWHUVFPSHU\HDU7KHDYHUDJHGHSWKRILQXQGDWHGDUHDYDULHV
EHWZHHQDQGLQ 0HOLDQD 7KLVFRXSOHGZLWK WKHODQG VXUIDFH
GHFOLQH DV KLJK DV  FP SHU \HDU DV REVHUYHG LQ WKH -DNDUWD %D\ FDQ KDYH D
WUHPHQGRXV LPSDFW RQ XUEDQ SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH 3ULDPERGR 
$OVRLQUXUDOGLVWULFWVVXFKDV.UDZDQJDQG6XEDQJDSHUFHQWUHGXFWLRQLQORFDO
ULFHVXSSO\GRZQWRQVLVHVWLPDWHGDVDUHVXOWRILQXQGDWLRQRIWKHFRDVWDO
]RQH ,QWKH VDPHGLVWULFWVPDL]HRXWSXWZRXOGEHUHGXFHGE\WRQVDERXW
KDOIRIWKLVGXHWRLQXQGDWLRQ
6HDOHYHOULVHZLOOUHGXFHIDUPLQJDQGFRDVWDOOLYHOLKRRGV6HDOHYHOULVHZRXOGDOVR
EHOLNHO\WRDIIHFWILVKDQGSUDZQSURGXFWLRQ,QWKH.UDZDQJDQG6XEDQJGLVWULFWV
WKHORVVLVHVWLPDWHGDWRYHUWRQVDQGWRQVUHVSHFWLYHO\YDOXHGDWRYHU
86  PLOOLRQ  ,Q WKH ORZHU &LWDUXP %DVLQ VHDOHYHO ULVH FRXOG UHVXOW LQ WKH
LQXQGDWLRQRIDERXWKDRISRQGVDQGKDRIFURSODQG7KLVFRXOGUHVXOW
LQWKHORVVRIWRQVRIILVKVKULPSDQGSUDZQVRXWSXWDQGDERXWWRQV
RIULFHSURGXFWLRQ
7KH RYHUDOO HIIHFW ZRXOG EH WR UHGXFH SRWHQWLDO DYHUDJH LQFRPH  7KH HVWLPDWHG
UHGXFWLRQRI\LHOGZRXOGFRVWWKHULFHIDUPHU86WR86DQQXDOO\WKHVR\EHDQ
IDUPHU86WR86DQGWKHPDL]HFRUQIDUPHU86WR86DQQXDOO\,W
LV HVWLPDWHG WKDW WKH GHFUHDVH LQ \LHOG ZRXOG FDXVH LQ WKH 6XEDQJ 'LVWULFW DORQH

DERXWIDUPODERUHUVWRORVHWKHLUMREV,QDGGLWLRQPRUHWKDQIDUPHUV
ZRXOGKDYHWRORRNIRURWKHUVRXUFHVRILQFRPHGXHWRWKHLQXQGDWLRQRIWKHLUULFH
ILHOGVRUSUDZQDQGILVKIDUPVGXHWRVHDOHYHOULVH3DUU\1LK
7KHZDUPLQJRIRFHDQZDWHUZLOODIIHFW PDULQHELRGLYHUVLW\&OLPDWHFKDQJH ZLOO
VXEMHFW,QGRQHVLD·VRFHDQZDWHUWRDQLQFUHDVHLQWHPSHUDWXUHRIWR
R
&7KH
 NP

 RI FRUDO UHHIV LQ ,QGRQHVLD DERXW  SHUFHQW RI WKH ZRUOG·V WRWDO DUH
DOUHDG\LQGLUHVWUDLWV7KH(O1LQRHYHQWLQ²DORQHZDVHVWLPDWHGWRKDYH
FDXVHGFRUDOEOHDFKLQJWRSHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOG·VFRUDOUHHI,QDVXUYH\RQO\
 SHUFHQW RI ,QGRQHVLD·V FRUDO UHHIV DUH LQ H[FHOOHQW FRQGLWLRQ  SHUFHQW LQ JRRG
FRQGLWLRQDQGWKHUHPDLQLQJSHUFHQWDUHLQIDLUWRSRRUFRQGLWLRQ-RKQ+RSNLQV
8QLYHUVLW\DQG7HUDQJL$VXUYH\LQWKH%DOL%DUDW1DWLRQDO3DUNIRXQGWKDWD
PDMRULW\RIFRUDOUHHIV ZHUH LQSRRUFRQGLWLRQ 0RUH WKDQ KDOIRIWKHGHJUDGDWLRQ
ZDV GXH WR FRUDO EOHDFKLQJ  7KLV SXWVWKH%DOL%DUDW1DWLRQDO3DUNDVD
FDWDVWURSKLFDOO\DIIHFWHG VLWH :LONLQVRQ  LQ6HWLDVLK  ,Q 3DUL LVODQG LQ
WKH7KRXVDQG,VODQGV1DWLRQDO3DUN²SHUFHQWRIWKHFRUDOUHHIVZHUHIRXQG
EOHDFKHGLQ,UGH]LQ6HWLDVLK
&OLPDWHFKDQJHZLOOLQWHQVLI\ZDWHUDQGYHFWRUERUQHGLVHDVHV,QWKHODWHV
(O1LQRDQG/D1LQDZHUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRXWEUHDNVRIPDODULDGHQJXHDQGSODJXH
Page 5Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
,QSUHSDUDWLRQIRUWKH6WHUQYLVLWDVZHOODVWRVHUYHDVDQLQSXWWRWKH&23023
SURFHVVWKH'HSDUWPHQW)RU,QWHUQDWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW'),'RIWKH*RYHUQPHQW
RIWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP DQG WKH:RUOG%DQNVSRQVRUHG WKLV EDFNJURXQGSDSHURQ
,QGRQHVLDDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH$EULHIFDOOIRUVKRUWWHUPFRQVXOWDQF\RIGD\VWR
SUHSDUHDVXPPDU\SDSHURQ,QGRQHVLDDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHKDVEHHQPDGHWRNH\
UHVHDUFKHUVRI373HODQJL(QHUJL$EDGL&LWUD(QYLUR7KHSXUSRVHRIWKHSDSHULVWR
SURYLGHWKHPRVWXSWRGDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ,QGRQHVLDDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHWKDWFDQ

VHUYHDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUIXUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQVRQWKHLVVXH
7KHSDSHULVDFRPSLODWLRQRIDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGGDWDDQGGRHVQRWLQYROYH
UHFDOFXODWLQJ RU UHPRGHOLQJ RI H[LVWLQJ GDWD  6HYHUDO WRROV GHYHORSHG E\
LQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHDUFKRUJDQL]DWLRQVDUHXVHGDVDVRXUFHRILQIRUPDWLRQRUDEDVHRI
LQWHUSRODWLRQ DORQJ ZLWK RWKHU DYDLODEOH RIILFLDO GDWD IURP UHOHYDQW GHSDUWPHQWDO
DJHQFLHV 8QRIILFLDOGDWDDUHXWLOL]HG ZKHUH RIILFLDO GDWD DUHQRWDYDLODEOH:KHQ
DYDLODEOHWKHPHWKRGRORJ\EHKLQGWKHGDWDXVHGLVDVVHVVHGIRUVFLHQWLILFFUHGLELOLW\
+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHVRPHFDVHVZKHUHGHWDLOHGH[SODQDWLRQVZHUHQRWSURYLGHG
,QDGGLWLRQWZR5RXQGWDEOH'LVFXVVLRQVZHUHRUJDQL]HGGXULQJWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRI
WKHSDSHU7KHILUVW5RXQGWDEOHZDVKHOGRQ0DUFKWRREWDLQVRXUFHVRIGDWD
DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP UHOHYDQW GHSDUWPHQWDO DJHQFLHV QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO
RUJDQL]DWLRQV 1*2V DQG UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWLRQV  7KH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH IURP WKH
6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWWKH0LQLVWU\RI (QHUJ\DQG 0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV WKH
0LQLVWU\RI+HDOWKWKH0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF,QIUDVWUXFWXUHWKH0LQLVWU\RI0DULQHDQG
)LVKHULHV WKH %DQGXQJ ,QVWLWXWH RI 7HFKQRORJ\ WKH *HRSK\VLFV DQG 0HWHRURORJ\
$JHQF\ WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI )RUHVWU\ DQG 1*2V VXFK DV <D\DVDQ 3HODQJL ,QGRQHVLD
*UHHQSHDFH &RQVHUYDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO ,QGRQHVLD DV ZHOO DV LQWHUQDWLRQDO
LQVWLWXWLRQVVXFKDVWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU5HVHDUFKRQ$JUR)RUHVWU\,&5$)
DQG:HWODQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDO7KHVHFRQG5RXQGWDEOH'LVFXVVLRQZDVKHOGLQ0DUFK
ZKHUHDGUDIWSDSHUZDVSUHVHQWHGDQGGLVFXVVHGE\WKHVDPHSDUWLFLSDQWV
SULRUWRWKHGHOLYHU\RIWKHSDSHU
7KHSDSHUFRPSULVHVVHFWLRQVVWDUWLQJZLWKVHFWRUDOJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQV,WLV
WKHQIROORZHGE\DVHFWLRQRQFXUUHQWDQGSRVVLEOHFOLPDWHFKDQJHLPSDFWVWR
,QGRQHVLD7KHWKLUGVHFWLRQKLJKOLJKWVVHYHUDONH\JDSVLQSROLFLHVDQGPHFKDQLVPV
LQVHFWRUVUHODWHGWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHODVWVHFWLRQFRQFOXGHVWKLVSDSHU
Page 10 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 4B
0DODULDKDVVSUHDGWRKLJKHOHYDWLRQVZKHUHLWZDVGHWHFWHGIRUWKHILUVWWLPHDVKLJK
DVPLQWKHKLJKODQGVRI,ULDQ-D\DLQ(SVWHLQHWDO,QLW
DSSHDUHG WKDW DPRUH YLUXOHQW VWUDLQ RI WKHSRWHQWLDOO\ GHDGO\ GHQJXH IHYHU YLUXV

PD\KDYHHPHUJHG'HQJXHIHYHUKDVEHHQVSUHDGLQJIDVWHUDQGNLOOLQJPRUHYLFWLPV
WKDQLQSDVW\HDUV
7KHOLQNVEHWZHHQFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGWKHVHGLVHDVHVDQGKHDOWKSUREOHPVLVSRRUO\
UHVHDUFKHG7KH,3&&·V)RXUWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWVWDWHGWKDWWKHUHLVWRROLWWOH
GDWDWRUHOLDEO\FRQILUPSHUFHSWLRQVRIDQLQFUHDVHLQH[WUHPHZHDWKHUHYHQWVZKLFK
PD\EHGXHWRLQFUHDVHGUHSRUWLQJ+RZHYHUSHUKDSVDVDIRUHZDUQLQJRIZKDWLVWR
FRPH WKH ULVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI GHQJXH IHYHU FDVHV GXULQJ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQV LQ
,QGRQHVLD SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ -DYD FRXOG KDYH EHHQ SDUWLDOO\ FDXVHG E\ ZDUPHU
FOLPDWHV5HVHDUFKKDVFRQILUPHGWKDWZDUPHU WHPSHUDWXUH KDV OHGWRPXWDWLRQRI
WKHGHQJXHYLUXVPDNLQJFDVHVPRUHGLIILFXOWWRKDQGOHWKXVOHDGLQJWRDQLQFUHDVH
LQIDWDOLWLHV
,PSDFWV ZLOO EH XQHYHQ DFURVV WKH FRXQWU\ EXW UHVXOW LQ VLJQLILFDQW HFRQRPLF
GDPDJHDQGORVVRIOLYHOLKRRGV)RUH[DPSOHWKHHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVRI IRUHVWILUHV
DUHHVWLPDWHGWRFRVW DQ DQQXDO86ELOOLRQ IURP GURXJKWV DQGILUHV$SSOHJDWH
0D\  DQG 86  ELOOLRQ IURP KD]H UHODWHG FRVWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW
5HVHDUFK&HQWHU
7KHUHLVQRSURYHQHYLGHQFH\HWWKDWLQWHQVHDQGPRUHIUHTXHQW(O1LQRDQG/D1LQD
HYHQWVDUHFDXVHGE\RUDUHFDXVLQJFOLPDWHFKDQJH%XWWKHVHHYHQWVFDQEHDJRRG
SUR[\IRUORRNLQJDWWKHGDPDJHWKDWFRXOGRFFXUGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHUDUH
HYHQWVFRXOGEHFRPHWKHQRUPDVWKHZRUOGZLOOJHWSHUPDQHQWO\ZDUPHU
3ROLF\DQGFDSDFLW\FRQVWUDLQWV
,QGRQHVLDVLJQHGWKH.\RWR3URWRFROLQDQGUDWLILHGLWLQWKURXJK/DZ1R
  6LQFH WKHQ D ORW KDV KDSSHQHG QRWDEO\ LQ WKH ILHOG RI WKH FOHDQ
GHYHORSPHQWPHFKDQLVP&'0DOWKRXJKOHVVVRLQWKHRWKHUILHOGV
)RUHVWU\SROLFLHVDQGOHJLVODWLRQDUHJRRGEXWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGHQIRUFHPHQWDUH
ZHDN 7KHUHDUH PDQ\ JRRG SROLFLHVDQGOHJLVODWLRQVWKDW IDYRU VXVWDLQDEOHIRUHVW
PDQDJHPHQW LQ ,QGRQHVLD  8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH FDSDFLW\ RI WKH JRYHUQPHQW WR
LPSOHPHQWDQGHQIRUFHODZVLVZHDN)RUH[DPSOHWKURXJK3UHVLGHQWLDO,QVWUXFWLRQ
1R,QGRQHVLDFRGLILHVDQGUHLQIRUFHVWKHFRPPLWPHQWWRILJKWIRUHVWFULPH
7KH GHFUHHGLUHFWV HLJKWHHQ DJHQFLHV WR FRRSHUDWHLQ WKH FRQWURO RI LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ

DQGWKHSURVHFXWLRQRIIRUHVWFULPHVLQFOXGLQJWKH&RRUGLQDWLQJ0LQLVWU\RI3ROLWLFDO
DQG 6HFXULW\ $IIDLUV WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI )RUHVWU\ WKH 1DWLRQDO 3ROLFH DQG ILQDQFLDO
VHFWRU UHJXODWRUV  $Q RUGHU RI WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI +RPH $IIDLUV KDV FDOOHG IRU
FRRSHUDWLRQ DW WKH GLVWULFW JRYHUQPHQW OHYHO DQG KDV SURKLELWHG IXUWKHU JUDQWV RI
ORJJLQJFRQFHVVLRQVDWWKDWOHYHO2IILFLDOVIURP3ROLFHDQG3URVHFXWRUV2IILFHKDYH
Page 6 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

EHHQVWDWLRQHGDWWKH0LQLVWU\RI)RUHVWU\EXWWKHUHLVVWLOODQHHGIRUPRUHGHWDLOHG
SODQV EXGJHWV LQIRUPDWLRQ VKDULQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV DQG VWDQGDUG SURWRFROV :RUOG
%DQN
7KHSROLF\WRH[SDQGELRIXHOSURGXFWLRQLVVWLOOULVN\DQGSUREOHPDWLF,QGRQHVLDLV
SURJUHVVLQJWRZDUGVH[SDQGLQJELRIXHOSURGXFWLRQERWKIRUGRPHVWLFXVHLQRUGHU
WRUHGXFHRLOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGIRUH[SRUWGXHWRPHHWVWURQJGHPDQGHVSHFLDOO\LQ
(XURSH%LRHWKDQROLVFXUUHQWO\SURGXFHGXVLQJPDLQO\VXJDUDQGFDVVDYDDV
IHHGVWRFNVZKHUHDVELRGLHVHOLVGHYHORSHGXVLQJFUXGHSDOPRLO&32VWHDULQWKH
QRQHGLEOHE\SURGXFWVRI&32-DWURSKDFXUFDVDQGRWKHUV
,QELRGLHVHOIURPRLOSDOPLQ,QGRQHVLDLVSURMHFWHGWRUHDFKPLOOLRQOLWHUV
RU  SHUFHQW RI GLHVHO FRQVXPSWLRQ UHTXLULQJ DERXW  KD RI RLO SDOP
SODQWDWLRQV'HPDQGIRUELRGLHVHOLVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHLQZKHQLWUHDFKHV
 PLOOLRQ OLWHUV RU  SHUFHQW RI WRWDO GLHVHO FRQVXPSWLRQ  7KLV ZLOO QHHG 
PLOOLRQKHFWDUHVRIRLO SDOP SODQWDWLRQV²DERXW WLPHV WKHDUHDRI WKH LVODQG RI
%DOL-DWURSKDFXUFDVFDQJURZLQGHJUDGHGODQGVDQGSURPLVHVDJRRGSRWHQWLDOWR
UHIRUHVWWKHGHJUDGHGDUHDVZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPHSURYLGLQJOLYHOLKRRGVWRWKHSRRU
OLYLQJQHDUGHJUDGHGDUHDVDQGUHGXFLQJWKHXVHRISHWURGLHVHO
+RZHYHU WKH ULVNV RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ ² DQG WR VRPH H[WHQW ODQG XVH FRQIOLFWV ZLWK
ELRIXHOV²KDYHQRWEHHQWKRURXJKO\DVVHVVHG+LVWRULFDOO\RLOSDOPSURGXFWLRQLQ
,QGRQHVLDKDVEHHQDPDMRUGULYHURIGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
7KH SROLF\ WR UDSLGO\ H[SDQG WKH XVH RI FRDO ZLOO LQFUHDVH HPLVVLRQV IXUWKHU
,QGRQHVLDJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQVIURPFRDOEXUQLQJE\WKH\HDUZLOOEH
WLPHVKLJKHUWKDQLQRUWLPHVKLJKHUWKDQDOOHQHUJ\VHFWRUHPLVVLRQVIRUWKH

VDPH \HDU +XWDSHD   7KH GHFLVLRQ WR UDSLGO\ H[SDQG FRDOILUHG SRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQE\0:LQ-DYDDORQHPD\LQFUHDVHWKHVHHPLVVLRQVHYHQIXUWKHU
5HQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVDUHXQGHUGHYHORSHGZLWKEDUULHUVEXWIHZLQFHQWLYHV$W
WKH VDPH WLPH WKHUH DUH EDUULHUV EXW IHZ LQFHQWLYHV LQ ,QGRQHVLD IRU WKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\'HYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\KDVVORZHGLI
QRWKDOWHG:KLOHHQHUJ\SROLFLHVPD\FDOOIRUGHYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHV
VXSSRUWLQJLQVWUXPHQWVVXFKDVILVFDODQGILQDQFLDOLQFHQWLYHVKDYHQRWEHHQIXOO\
GHYHORSHG7DEOHVKRZVWKHVPDOODPRXQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\DFWXDOO\XWLOL]HG
FRPSDUHG WR WKH SRWHQWLDO  7KLV LV YHU\ GLIIHUHQW IURP &KLQD DQG ,QGLD ZKHUH
SROLFLHV WR IRVWHU GHYHORSPHQW RI UHQHZDEOH VRXUFHV KDYH EHHQ VWURQJO\
LPSOHPHQWHG



Page 7Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 3B

7KLVVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHV,QGRQHVLDQDQWKURSRJHQLF*+*HPLVVLRQV7KHNH\HPLWWLQJ
VHFWRUVIRUHVWU\HQHUJ\DJULFXOWXUH DQG OLYHVWRFN ZDVWHDUHGLVFXVVHGEHORZ
7KH VHFWLRQ FRQFOXGHV ZLWK D FRPSDULVRQ RI ,QGRQHVLDQ HPLVVLRQV ZLWK RWKHU
FRXQWULHV
)25(676$1'/$1'86(
7KLV VHFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV WKH FXUUHQW FRQGLWLRQ RI ,QGRQHVLD·V IRUHVW FRYHU DQG LWV
FKDQJHV WKH XQGHUO\LQJ FDXVHV RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG LWV UHODWLRQ WR WKH FOLPDWH
FKDQJHHVWLPDWLRQRIFDUERQVWRFNDQGFDUERQHPLVVLRQFRPSDULVRQRIHPLVVLRQWR
RWKHU FRXQWULHV DQG WKH HVWLPDWHG HPLVVLRQ WUHQGV IURP WKLV VRFDOOHG /DQG 8VH
/DQGXVH&KDQJHDQG)RUHVWU\/8/8&)VHFWRU7KHVRXUFHVRIFDUERQVWRFNFRPH
IURP IRUHVW FRYHU LQFOXGLQJ SHDWODQG IRUHVW ZRRGODQG DJURIRUHVWU\ SODQWDWLRQ
IDOORZ ODQG JUDVVODQG VKLIWLQJ FXOWLYDWLRQJDUGHQ KRXVLQJ FRPSRXQG DQG
VXUURXQGLQJ DQG PL[HG XQSURGXFWLYH ODQGV  (PLVVLRQV IURP WKH IRUHVWU\ VHFWRU

RFFXUDVFDUERQVWRFNLVGHSOHWHGDQGUHOHDVHGWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHFDXVHGE\FKDQJHV
LQ IRUHVW DQG RWKHU ZRRG\ ELRPDVV VWRFN IRUHVW DQG JUDVV ODQG FRQYHUVLRQ
DEDQGRQPHQWRIPDQDJHGODQGDQGIRUHVWILUHV7KHGDWDXVHGDUHPDLQO\IURPWKH
0LQLVWU\ RI)RUHVWU\ WKH :RUOG 5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWH WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI (QYLURQPHQW
)RUHVW:DWFK,QGRQHVLDDQG:HWODQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RPSDULVRQVRIFDUERQ
HPLVVLRQVIURP/8/8&)DPRQJFRXQWULHVDUHSUHVHQWHGXVLQJJUDSKLFVDQGFKDUWV
GHYHORSHG XVLQJ WKH &OLPDWH $QDO\VLV ,QGLFDWRU 7RROV &$,7 9HUVLRQ  RI WKH
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH
,QWHUPVRIGDWDYDOLGLW\GLIIHUHQFHVLQGHILQLWLRQVRIODQGXVHW\SHDQG
PHDVXUHPHQW PHWKRGRORJ\ EHFDPHWKH PDLQ FDXVH RIGDWD LQFRQVLVWHQF\ EHWZHHQ
WKH SHDWODQG FDUERQ HPLVVLRQV IURP WKH :HWODQGV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO DQG WKH ODQG XVH
FKDQJHDQGIRUHVWU\/8&)HPLVVLRQVGDWDIURPWKH:5,)RUIRUHVWFRYHUGDWDWKH
VWXG\XVHVWKHRIILFLDOGDWDIURPWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI)RUHVWU\LQ7KHHPLVVLRQ
SURMHFWLRQV IRU   WR  LQ WKLV VWXG\ XVH WKH FDUERQ VWRFN GDWD IURP
6DWKD\H HW DO LQ  KRZHYHU WKHUH DUH QR RWKHU GDWD DYDLODEOH WR FRPSDUH WKH
DFFXUDF\RIWKHSURMHFWLRQV

Page 11Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies






7DEOH,QGRQHVLDQ5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3RWHQWLDO&RPSDUHGWR,QVWDOOHG&DSDFLW\
'*((8
7KHRQO\LPSURYHPHQWPD\KDYHRFFXUUHGLQHQHUJ\FRQVHUYDWLRQ(QHUJ\SULFLQJ
SROLF\  WKDW JUDGXDOO\ UHPRYHG VXEVLGLHV IURP HOHFWULFLW\ DQG IXHO ² KDV KHOSHG
LQFUHDVHFRQVHUYDWLRQRIHQHUJ\(QHUJ\LQWHQVLW\KDVDOVREHHQFRQVWDQWO\UHGXFHG
RYHUWLPH

,QGRQHVLDKDVQRW\HWEHHQDEOHWRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQWKH&OHDQ
'HYHORSPHQW0HFKDQLVP,QGRQHVLDKDVDWOHDVW0W&2

HRIHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ
SRWHQWLDO WKDW FDQ EH GHYHORSHG DV &'0 SURMHFWV UDQJLQJ IURP UHGXFWLRQ RI JDV
IODULQJLQODUJHRLODQGJDVIDFLOLWLHVWRGHYHORSPHQWRIJHRWKHUPDODQGRWKHUFOHDQ
DQGUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVWRSURGXFWLRQRIELRJDVIURPDJULFXOWXUHDQGDQLPDO
ZDVWH
+RZHYHUDWSUHVHQWRQO\  SURMHFWVKDYHUHFHLYHGDSSURYDO IURP WKH 'HVLJQDWHG
1DWLRQDO&'0$XWKRULW\'1$2IWKHVHHLJKWKDYHEHHQUHJLVWHUHGE\WKH
([HFXWLYH %RDUG RI &'0 ZLWK D SRWHQWLDO WR SURGXFH  0W&2

H  )URP WKH
UHJLVWHUHG SURMHFWV PRVW DUH UHQHZDEOH DQG ZDVWH PDQDJHPHQW SURMHFWV 81(3
5,62(&RPSDUHGZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWKLVLVQRWVLJQLILFDQW
,QGRQHVLDLVQRW\HWDGHTXDWHO\SUHSDULQJIRUDGDSWDWLRQWRIXWXUHFOLPDWHHYHQWV
7KHLPSRUWDQFHRIDGDSWDWLRQWRFOLPDWHFKDQJHKDVDOUHDG\EHHQDFNQRZOHGJHGLQ
WKH FRXQWU\·V 0LG7HUP 1DWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW 3ODQ  &KDSWHU  RI WKH 3ODQ
PHQWLRQV WKDW ,QGRQHVLD VKDOO ´LPSURYH QDWLRQDO FDSDFLW\ LQ DGDSWLQJ FOLPDWH
FKDQJHLVVXHVLQWRGHYHORSPHQWDVSHFWVµ
&XUUHQWO\DGUDIWRIWKH1DWLRQDO6WUDWHJ\RQ$GDSWDWLRQKDVEHHQFRPSOHWHG7KH
GUDIWFRQWDLQVDFRPSLODWLRQRIUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIDGDSWDWLRQLVVXHV
WKDW QHHG WR UHYLVHG DQG H[SDQGHG ZLWK LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ H[SHULHQFH RI 81)&&&
PHWKRGRORJ\$WSUHVHQWWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWLVILQDOL]LQJWKHVWUDWHJ\LQ
WLPHIRUWKH&23PHHWLQJ2WKHU0LQLVWULHVKDYH\HWWRIROORZWKURXJKE\
LPSOHPHQWLQJUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVUHVXOWLQJLQZHDN SUHSDUHGQHVVIRUDGDSWDWLRQWR
IXWXUHFOLPDWHHYHQWV
5HQHZDEOH6RXUFHV 3RWHQWLDO ,QVWDOOHG&DSDFLW\
+\GUR
 *:  0:

*HRWKHUPDO
 *:  0:
0LQLPLFURK\GUR
 *:  0:
%LRPDVV
 *:  0:
6RODU
 N:KP

GD\  0:
:LQG
 PV  0:
Page 8 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 3A

&XUUHQW6WDWXV
)RUHVWV SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH JOREDO FDUERQ F\FOH EHFDXVH WKH\ VWRUH ODUJH
TXDQWLWLHV RI FDUERQLQ YHJHWDWLRQ DQG VRLO H[FKDQJH FDUERQ ZLWK WKH DWPRVSKHUH
WKURXJK SKRWRV\QWKHVLV DQG UHVSLUDWLRQ EXW WKH\ DUH DOVR FDQ EHFRPH VRXUFHV RI
DWPRVSKHULF FDUERQ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH GLVWXUEHG E\ KXPDQ RU QDWXUDO FDXVHV HJ
ZLOGILUHVXVHRISRRUKDUYHVWLQJSURFHGXUHVFOHDUHGDQGEXUQHGIRUFRQYHUVLRQWR
QRQIRUHVW XVHV LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ DQG EHFRPH DWPRVSKHULF FDUERQ VLQNV LH QHW
WUDQVIHURI&2IURPWKHDWPRVSKHUHWRWKHODQGGXULQJODQGDEDQGRQPHQWDQGUH
JURZWKDIWHUGLVWXUEDQFH%URZQ
7RGDWH,QGRQHVLDKRXVHVWKHWKLUGODUJHVWWURSLFDOIRUHVWDIWHU%UD]LODQGWKH&RQJR
%DVLQ%DVHGRQWKHGDWDIURPWKH)RUHVW3ODQQLQJ$JHQF\WKHH[WHQWDUHDRI
ODQG FRYHU LQVLGH DQG RXWVLGH IRUHVW DUHD XS WR  LV  PLOOLRQ KD DV
DUHDLVGHJUDGHGDQGVRPHDUHDVDUHLQFULWLFDOFRQGLWLRQ



)RUHVW$UHDLQ+D
3HUPDQHQW)RUHVW
&ULWHULD
&RQVHUYDWLRQ
$UHD
3URWHFWHG
)RUHVW
/LPLWHG
3URGXFWLRQ
)RUHVW
3URGXFWLRQ
)RUHVW
&RQYHUVLRQ
3URGXFWLRQ
)RUHVW
2WKHU
XVHV
7RWDO
LQ
+D
$)RUHVW
      
%1RQ)RUHVW
      
&'DWD
'HILFLHQF\
      
7RWDO       
7DEOH)RUHVW)LJXUHVLQ,QGRQHVLD


'HSDUWHPHQ.HKXWDQDQ5,
$VLGHIURPWKH FXUUHQWIRUHVWFRYHUVDERYHWKHUH DUHDOVRD IDFWWKDWGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
UDWHLQ,QGRQHVLDKDVEHHQLQFUHDVLQJVLJQLILFDQWO\)RUHVW:DWFK,QGRQHVLD*OREDO
)RUHVW :DWFK TXRWLQJ GDWD IURP +ROPHV  SUHVHQWV WKH ORVV RI ORZODQG DQG
RWKHUGRPLQDQWIRUHVWW\SHVLQWKHWKUHHLVODQGVEHWZHHQDQG,QGRQHVLD·V
ORZODQGWURSLFDOIRUHVWVWKHULFKHVWLQWLPEHUUHVRXUFHVDQGELRGLYHUVLW\DUHPRVWDW
ULVN 7KH\ KDYH EHHQ DOPRVW HQWLUHO\ FOHDUHG LQ 6XODZHVL DQG DUH SUHGLFWHG WR
GLVDSSHDU LQ 6XPDWUD E\  DQG .DOLPDQWDQ E\  LI FXUUHQW WUHQGV FRQWLQXH
):,*):)LJXUHEHORZVKRZWKHH[WHQWRIGHIRUHVWDWLRQLQ.DOLPDQWDQ
XSWR



7KHWDEOHZDVSURGXFHGIURPWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVDWHOOLWHLPDJHODQGVDW(70
SUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH EHORZ5HJUHWWDEO\DOPRVWSHUFHQWPLOOLRQKDRIWKH


Page 12 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies



0RVW VWXGLHV HVWLPDWH WKDW LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ FRPSULVHV DERXW WZR WKLUGV RI WKH
FRXQWU\·V WRWDO &2

 HPLVVLRQV RU EHWZHHQ  DQG  0W& DQQXDOO\  7KLV LV
HTXLYDOHQWWRDIHZSHUFHQWRIJOREDO&2HPLVVLRQVIURPIRVVLOIXHOXVH3HUVVRQHW
DO   ,Q0H[LFRLQ WKH UHFHQW FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WR WKH81)&&&WKH /8/8&)
FRQWULEXWHVWKHHPLVVLRQLQDWRWDORI0W&7KHVHHPLVVLRQVDUHGXHWRD
QHWDPRXQWRI0WSURGXFHGE\WKHFRPEXVWLRQDQGGHFRPSRVLWLRQRIELRPDVV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSURFHVVHVRIFRQYHUWLQJIRUHVWVWRRWKHUXVHVSOXV0W&RI

HPLVVLRQVGHULYHGIURPPLQHUDOVRLOVDQGDJULFXOWXUDODUHDVSOXVHPLVVLRQVRI
0W& IURP PDQDJHG IRUHVWV VXEWUDFWLQJ WKH FDSWXUH RI  0W& LQ DEDQGRQHG
ODQGV'HSDUWPHQWRI(QYLURQPHQW1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHVDQG)LVKHULHV0H[LFR
,QJOREDO WHUPVGXULQJ WKHV 7KH,3&& HVWLPDWHVWKDW JOREDO/8&) HPLVVLRQV
DYHUDJHGJLJDWRQV*W&SHU\HDU*W&7KLVILJXUHDPRXQWVWRSHUFHQWRI
JOREDO&2

HPLVVLRQV7DNLQJXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWRDFFRXQW&2

IURP/8&)PD\EHDV
OLWWOHDV*W&SHUFHQWRIZRUOGHPLVVLRQVRUDVKLJKDV*W&SHUFHQWD
GLIIHUHQFHRIDIDFWRURIWKUHH(VWLPDWHVXVHGDUHEDVHGRQ+RXJKWRQDQG+DFNOHU
DQG+RXJKWRQDPRXQWWR*W&SHU\HDUSHUFHQWRI&2

LQWKH
VZKLFKLVLQWKHXSSHUUDQJHRI,3&&HVWLPDWHV%DXPHUWHWDO
:KLOH GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DORQH KDV FRQWULEXWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH QDWLRQDO *+*
HPLVVLRQVILUHVIURPSHDWODQGPDNHLWHYHQZRUVH)LUHVIURPSHDWODQGKDYHEHFRPH
WKHODUJHVWFRQWULEXWRUWRKD]HZKLFKLVDOVRDPDMRUVRXUFHRIFDUERQHPLVVLRQV,Q
WKH  SHDWODQG KDV FRQWULEXWHG  SHUFHQW WR  SHUFHQW RI HPLVVLRQV
)LJXUH&2IURP/DQG8VH&KDQJH7RWDODQG3HU&DSLWD%DXPHUWHWDO
Page 16 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies



)LJXUH([WHQWRIGHIRUHVWDWLRQLQ%RUQHRDQGSURMHFWLRQWRZDUGV
81(3*5,'$UHQGDO
7KHUHFHQWVWXG\UHJDUGLQJGDWDRIWRWDOFDUERQVWRFNLQ,QGRQHVLDZDVFRQGXFWHGE\
WKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWWKURXJKWKH1DWLRQDO6WUDWHJ\6WXG\IRU&'0)RUHVWU\
LQVHH7DEOH7KHLUHVWLPDWHVDUHEDVHGRQDYHUDJHFDUERQVWRUDJHYDOXHVIRU

HDFKODQGXVHW\SHGDWDLQ8SWRQRZWKHUHLVQRRWKHUVWXG\DYDLODEOHWRKDYH
WKHSRWHQWLDOFDUERQVWRFNLQ,QGRQHVLDZKLFKWRWDODURXQG0WRIFDUERQ7KLV
ODUJHDPRXQWRIFDUERQVWRFNFDQSRWHQWLDOO\EHUHOHDVHGLIWKHDUHDVDUHGLVWXUEHG
7KHSURMHFWLRQRIIRUHVWFRYHUORVVLQWKHWDEOHDERYHVKRZVWKDWIURPWR
WKHUHZLOOEHDVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHRIIRUHVWFRYHUORVVZKLFKZLOOGHILQLWHO\LQFUHDVH
WKHDPRXQWRIFDUERQHPLVVLRQUHOHDVHG

WKLVGDWDXSGDWHG+RZHYHUIURP7DEOH EHORZZHFDQKDYHDFOHDURYHUYLHZDERXW
Page 13Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 5A

1R /DQGXVHFRYHU $UHD+D $YHUDJH
&
W&KD
SHUFHQW

)RUHVWFRYHU

    

:RRGODQGDJURIRUHVWU\    

$JULFXOWXUHSDGG\ILHOG    

3ODQWDWLRQ    

)DOORZODQG    

*UDVVODQG    


6KLIWLQJFXOWLYDWLRQ    

+RXVHFRPSRXQGDQG
VXUURXQGLQJV
   

'\NHSRQGV    

0RVDLFRIPL[HGXQSURGXFWLYH
ODQGV
   

7RWDOODQGDUHD    
(QYLURQPHQWVRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQ&HQWUDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLF%36
0R)%RHU
7KH WUHPHQGRXV LQFUHDVH RI FDUERQ HPLVVLRQV IURP ODQG XVH FKDQJH LQ ,QGRQHVLD
ZDV PDLQO\ FDXVHG E\ IRUHVW ILUHV DQG LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ 7KH :RUOG %DQN 
HVWLPDWHV WKH UDWH WR EH PRUH WKDQ  PLOOLRQ KD SHU \HDU  7KH :RUOG 5HVRXUFH
,QVWLWXWHHVWLPDWHVWKDWWKHODUJHVW&2

HPLVVLRQVLQ,QGRQHVLDQIRUHVWU\VHFWRUDERXW
SHUFHQWFRPHIURPGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQGFRQYHUVLRQ/8&),WLVIROORZHGE\
IRUHVWUHODWHGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQSHUFHQWDQGIRUHVWUHODWHGLQGXVWULDOSURFHVV
 SHUFHQW)RUHVW ILUHV ZHUH WKH PDLQ FRQWULEXWRU RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG ODQG
FRQYHUVLRQFRPSULVLQJSHUFHQW1RWRQO\GRWKH\FRQWULEXWHWR*+*HPLVVLRQV
IRUHVW ILUHV DOVR FDXVH VHULRXV GHYDVWDWLRQ DQG GHJUDGDWLRQ WR WKH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH
IRUHVWLQDGGLWLRQWRKD]HSROOXWLRQWKDWQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWKXPDQKHDOWK
7DEOH 1DWLRQDOFDUERQVWRFNFDOFXODWHGEDVHGRQGDWD6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI

Page 14 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies



SHDWODQGILUHVGHWHUPLQHGRQWKHEDVLVKRWVSRWFRXQW+RRLMHUHWDO
7KH\HDURIDQGZHUHZKHQWKHKLJKHVWUDWHRIIRUHVWILUHVHYLGHQFHG
LQWKHKLVWRU\RI,QGRQHVLD/DVW\HDULQIRUHVWILUHVFDPHEDFNLQWKHLULQWHQVH
IRUP7KLVIOXFWXDWLRQRIILUHVFDQQRWEHVHSDUDWHGIURPWKHFOLPDWLFHYHQW(162(O
1LQR6RXWKHUQ2VFLOODWLRQZKLFKLQGXFHGORQJGURXJKWVHDVRQWR,QGRQHVLDDQGWKH
VXUURXQGLQJUHJLRQ
7KHPRVWUHFHQWVWXG\RQ,QGRQHVLDQIRUHVWHPLVVLRQZDVFRQGXFWHGE\WKH:RUOG
5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWHLQ1RW VXUSULVLQJO\ ,QGRQHVLD UDQNHG ILUVWDPRQJRWKHU
FRXQWULHVVXFKDV%UD]LODQG0H[LFRIRUODQGXVHFKDQJHHPLVVLRQ4XRWHGIURP
:5,EDVHGRQ+RXJKWRQWRWDO,QGRQHVLDQ/8&)*+*HPLVVLRQZHUH
0W&2

RUSHUFHQWRIZRUOGWRWDO/8&)*+*HPLVVLRQV%DXPHUWHWDO,Q
+RXJKWRQHVWLPDWHVWKHWRWDO,QGRQHVLDQ/8&)*+*HPLVVLRQVRIPRUHWKDQ
0W&2

 ,WZDVDVVXPHGWKDWIRUHVWILUHVDFFRXQWIRUSHUFHQWRI WKH/8&)
HPLVVLRQRUHTXDOVWRPRUHWKDQ0W&2


)LJXUH7HQWDWLYHHVWLPDWHRIDQQXDODQGDYHUDJHDQQXDOFDUERQHPLVVLRQGXHWR
Page 15Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 5B
7RWDO&W&

1R /DQGXVHFRYHU $UHD+D $YHUDJH
&
W&KD

7RWDO&W&KD SHUFHQW

)RUHVWFRYHU

    

:RRGODQGDJURIRUHVWU\    

$JULFXOWXUHSDGG\ILHOG    

3ODQWDWLRQ    

)DOORZODQG    

*UDVVODQG    

6KLIWLQJFXOWLYDWLRQ    

+RXVHFRPSRXQGDQG
VXUURXQGLQJV
   

'\NHSRQGV    

0RVDLFRIPL[HGXQSURGXFWLYH
ODQGV
   

7RWDOODQGDUHD    
(QYLURQPHQWVRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQ&HQWUDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLF%36

0R)%RHU
7KH WUHPHQGRXV LQFUHDVH RI FDUERQ HPLVVLRQV IURP ODQG XVH FKDQJH LQ ,QGRQHVLD
ZDV PDLQO\ FDXVHG E\ IRUHVW ILUHV DQG LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ 7KH :RUOG %DQN 
HVWLPDWHV WKH UDWH WR EH PRUH WKDQ  PLOOLRQ KD SHU \HDU  7KH :RUOG 5HVRXUFH
,QVWLWXWHHVWLPDWHVWKDWWKHODUJHVW&2

HPLVVLRQVLQ,QGRQHVLDQIRUHVWU\VHFWRUDERXW
SHUFHQWFRPHIURPGHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGODQGFRQYHUVLRQ/8&),WLVIROORZHGE\
IRUHVWUHODWHGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQSHUFHQWDQGIRUHVWUHODWHGLQGXVWULDOSURFHVV
 SHUFHQW)RUHVW ILUHV ZHUH WKH PDLQ FRQWULEXWRU RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG ODQG
FRQYHUVLRQFRPSULVLQJSHUFHQW1RWRQO\GRWKH\FRQWULEXWHWR*+*HPLVVLRQV
IRUHVW ILUHV DOVR FDXVH VHULRXV GHYDVWDWLRQ DQG GHJUDGDWLRQ WR WKH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH
IRUHVWLQDGGLWLRQWRKD]HSROOXWLRQWKDWQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWKXPDQKHDOWK
7DEOH 1DWLRQDOFDUERQVWRFNFDOFXODWHGEDVHGRQGDWD6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI

Page 14 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies


SHDWODQGILUHVGHWHUPLQHGRQWKHEDVLVKRWVSRWFRXQW+RRLMHUHWDO
7KH\HDURIDQGZHUHZKHQWKHKLJKHVWUDWHRIIRUHVWILUHVHYLGHQFHG
LQWKHKLVWRU\RI,QGRQHVLD/DVW\HDULQIRUHVWILUHVFDPHEDFNLQWKHLULQWHQVH
IRUP7KLVIOXFWXDWLRQRIILUHVFDQQRWEHVHSDUDWHGIURPWKHFOLPDWLFHYHQW(162(O
1LQR6RXWKHUQ2VFLOODWLRQZKLFKLQGXFHGORQJGURXJKWVHDVRQWR,QGRQHVLDDQGWKH
VXUURXQGLQJUHJLRQ
7KHPRVWUHFHQWVWXG\RQ,QGRQHVLDQIRUHVWHPLVVLRQZDVFRQGXFWHGE\WKH:RUOG
5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWHLQ1RW VXUSULVLQJO\ ,QGRQHVLD UDQNHG ILUVWDPRQJRWKHU
FRXQWULHVVXFKDV%UD]LODQG0H[LFRIRUODQGXVHFKDQJHHPLVVLRQ4XRWHGIURP
:5,EDVHGRQ+RXJKWRQWRWDO,QGRQHVLDQ/8&)*+*HPLVVLRQZHUH 
0W&2


RUSHUFHQWRIZRUOGWRWDO/8&)*+*HPLVVLRQV%DXPHUWHWDO,Q
+RXJKWRQHVWLPDWHVWKHWRWDO,QGRQHVLDQ/8&)*+*HPLVVLRQVRIPRUHWKDQ
0W&2

 ,WZDVDVVXPHGWKDWIRUHVWILUHVDFFRXQWIRUSHUFHQWRIWKH/8&)
HPLVVLRQRUHTXDOVWRPRUHWKDQ0W&2


)LJXUH7HQWDWLYHHVWLPDWHRIDQQXDODQGDYHUDJHDQQXDOFDUERQHPLVVLRQGXHWR
Page 15Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 5B



0RVW VWXGLHV HVWLPDWH WKDW LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ FRPSULVHV DERXW WZR WKLUGV RI WKH
FRXQWU\·V WRWDO &2

 HPLVVLRQV RU EHWZHHQ  DQG  0W& DQQXDOO\  7KLV LV
HTXLYDOHQWWRDIHZSHUFHQWRIJOREDO&2HPLVVLRQVIURPIRVVLOIXHOXVH3HUVVRQHW
DO   ,Q0H[LFRLQ WKH UHFHQW FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WR WKH81)&&&WKH /8/8&)
FRQWULEXWHVWKHHPLVVLRQLQDWRWDORI0W&7KHVHHPLVVLRQVDUHGXHWRD
QHWDPRXQWRI0WSURGXFHGE\WKHFRPEXVWLRQDQGGHFRPSRVLWLRQRIELRPDVV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSURFHVVHVRIFRQYHUWLQJIRUHVWVWRRWKHUXVHVSOXV0W&RI
HPLVVLRQVGHULYHGIURPPLQHUDOVRLOVDQGDJULFXOWXUDODUHDVSOXVHPLVVLRQVRI
0W& IURP PDQDJHG IRUHVWV VXEWUDFWLQJ WKH FDSWXUH RI  0W& LQ DEDQGRQHG
ODQGV'HSDUWPHQWRI(QYLURQPHQW1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHVDQG)LVKHULHV0H[LFR
,QJOREDO WHUPVGXULQJ WKHV 7KH,3&& HVWLPDWHVWKDW JOREDO/8&) HPLVVLRQV
DYHUDJHGJLJDWRQV*W&SHU\HDU*W&7KLVILJXUHDPRXQWVWRSHUFHQWRI
JOREDO&2


HPLVVLRQV7DNLQJXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWRDFFRXQW&2

IURP/8&)PD\EHDV
OLWWOHDV*W&SHUFHQWRIZRUOGHPLVVLRQVRUDVKLJKDV*W&SHUFHQWD
GLIIHUHQFHRIDIDFWRURIWKUHH(VWLPDWHVXVHGDUHEDVHGRQ+RXJKWRQDQG+DFNOHU
DQG+RXJKWRQDPRXQWWR*W&SHU\HDUSHUFHQWRI&2

LQWKH
VZKLFKLVLQWKHXSSHUUDQJHRI,3&&HVWLPDWHV%DXPHUWHWDO
:KLOH GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DORQH KDV FRQWULEXWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH QDWLRQDO *+*
HPLVVLRQVILUHVIURPSHDWODQGPDNHLWHYHQZRUVH)LUHVIURPSHDWODQGKDYHEHFRPH
WKHODUJHVWFRQWULEXWRUWRKD]HZKLFKLVDOVRDPDMRUVRXUFHRIFDUERQHPLVVLRQV,Q
WKH  SHDWODQG KDV FRQWULEXWHG  SHUFHQW WR  SHUFHQW RI HPLVVLRQV
)LJXUH&2IURP/DQG8VH&KDQJH7RWDODQG3HU&DSLWD%DXPHUWHWDO
Page 16 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies



)LJXUH([WHQWRIGHIRUHVWDWLRQLQ%RUQHRDQGSURMHFWLRQWRZDUGV
81(3*5,'$UHQGDO
7KHUHFHQWVWXG\UHJDUGLQJGDWDRIWRWDOFDUERQVWRFNLQ,QGRQHVLDZDVFRQGXFWHGE\
WKH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWWKURXJKWKH1DWLRQDO6WUDWHJ\6WXG\IRU&'0)RUHVWU\
LQVHH7DEOH7KHLUHVWLPDWHVDUHEDVHGRQDYHUDJHFDUERQVWRUDJHYDOXHVIRU
HDFKODQGXVHW\SHGDWDLQ8SWRQRZWKHUHLVQRRWKHUVWXG\DYDLODEOHWRKDYH
WKHSRWHQWLDOFDUERQVWRFNLQ,QGRQHVLDZKLFKWRWDODURXQG0WRIFDUERQ7KLV
ODUJHDPRXQWRIFDUERQVWRFNFDQSRWHQWLDOO\EHUHOHDVHGLIWKHDUHDVDUHGLVWXUEHG
7KHSURMHFWLRQRIIRUHVWFRYHUORVVLQWKHWDEOHDERYHVKRZVWKDWIURPWR
WKHUHZLOOEHDVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHRIIRUHVWFRYHUORVVZKLFKZLOOGHILQLWHO\LQFUHDVH
WKHDPRXQWRIFDUERQHPLVVLRQUHOHDVHG


WKLVGDWDXSGDWHG+RZHYHUIURP7DEOH EHORZZHFDQKDYHDFOHDURYHUYLHZDERXW
Page 13Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 5A

UHOHDVHIURPWKHIRUHVWILUHV,WLVDOVRHVWLPDWHGWKDWWKHILUHVUHOHDVHGSHUFHQWRI
WKH WRWDO JOREDO JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV HPLVVLRQ WKDW \HDU DQG DIIHFWHG WKH KHDOWK RI 
PLOOLRQSHRSOH%$33(1$6$'%
0DQ\IRUHVWDUHDVLQ,QGRQHVLDDUHORFDWHGLQSHDWRURUJDQLFVRLOVWKDWFRQWDLQODUJH
DPRXQWVRIFDUERQ8QGLVWXUEHGLQLWVDQDHURELFIRUPSHDWODQGVDUHVLQNVIRU&2

DQGVRXUFHVRI&+

'UDLQDJHRIWKHVHVRLOVWRLPSURYHIRUHVWSURGXFWLYLW\YLUWXDOO\
VWRSV &+

 HPLVVLRQV EXW LQLWLDWHV UDSLG &2 HPLVVLRQV E\ DHURELF GHFRPSRVLWLRQ
'UDLQLQJ SHDW VRLOV IRU IRUHVW HVWDEOLVKPHQW FDQ SURGXFH D FDUERQ ORVVIURP WKHVH
VRLOVWKDWH[FHHGVWKDWVWRUHGLQWKHIRUHVWLIFPRISHDWGHFRPSRVHDVDUHVXOW
RIWKHGUDLQDJH%URZQ
5HVHDUFK IURP :HWODQGV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO VKRZV WKH HQRUPRXV LPSDFW RI SHDWODQG
GHJUDGDWLRQRQFOLPDWHFKDQJH$QQXDOO\LQ,QGRQHVLDPLOOLRQWRQVRI&2

DUH
UHOHDVHGIURPIRUHVWVPLOOLRQWRQVDUHFDXVHGE\GHFRPSRVLWLRQRIGU\SHDWD
SURFHVV WKDW ZLOO FRQWLQXH XQWLO DOO SHDW KDV GLVDSSHDUHG DQG  PLOOLRQ WRQV
WKURXJKWKHDQQXDOILUHV
$VWXG\RI&2

HPLVVLRQVGXHWRSHDWILUHVLQ,QGRQHVLDLQE\3DJHHWDO
SXWVWKHILJXUHEHWZHHQDQGPLOOLRQWRQVRIFDUERQORVVLHWR

0W&2LQWKDWVLQJOHHYHQW7KLVQXPEHULVVXSSRUWHGDPRQJRWKHUVE\WKHIDFW
WKDWKDVKDGWKHODUJHVWDQQXDOMXPSLQJOREDODWPRVSKHULF&2

RQ UHFRUG
3DJHHWDO

(PLVVLRQV3URMHFWLRQ
$ VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG E\ 6DWKD\H HW DO LQ  OLVWHG VHYHUDO RSWLRQV LQ PLWLJDWLQJ
FDUERQ HPLVVLRQ IURP ,QGRQHVLDQ IRUHVW 0LWLJDWLRQ RSWLRQV VXFK DV IRUHVW
SODQWDWLRQ DIIRUHVWDWLRQ UHIRUHVWDWLRQ HQKDQFHG QDWXUDO UHJHQHUDWLRQ UHGXFHG
LPSDFWORJJLQJELRHOHFWULFLW\WRIRUHVWSURWHFWLRQDUHPRGHOHGLQWR,QGRQHVLDQGDWD
7KLVPRGHOSURGXFHGFDUERQVWRFNSURMHFWLRQRYHUWKLUW\\HDUVIRU,QGRQHVLDQIRUHVW
,QWKHVWXG\PRGHOHGWKDWZLWKRXWDQ\PLWLJDWLRQRSWLRQWKHFDUERQVWRFNLQ
,QGRQHVLDQIRUHVWLQVKRZVSHUFHQWUHGXFWLRQRIWKRVHLQ7KHFDUERQORVW
LQIURPHTXDOVWR0W&7KHUHDUHWZRSRVVLELOLWLHVWKHIRUHVWDUHD
GHFUHDVHVRUWKHIRUHVWLWVHOIUHOHDVHVHPLVVLRQVWURXJKLHIRUHVWILUHDQGORJJLQJ
DFWLYLWLHV6DWKD\HHWDO7KHVLWXDWLRQVOLJKWO\LPSURYHGLQDVWKHFDUERQ
VWRFNUHGXFWLRQLVSHUFHQWIURPWKRVHLQRUSHUFHQWIURPWKRVHLQ7KH
FDUERQORVWLQIURPVLWXDWLRQLQHTXDOVWR0W&
2QFH WKH PLWLJDWLRQ RSWLRQV DUH LPSRVHG RQ WKH EDVHOLQH VFHQDULRV WKHUH LV
VLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHRIFDUERQVWRFNIURPWR,QWKHUHLVLQFUHPHQWDO
FDUERQVWRFNDPRXQWLQJ0W&7KHVWXG\SURMHFWVPRUHRSWLPLVWLFVFHQDULRLQ
Page 17Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 6A


,PSDFWVRQ+XPDQ+HDOWK
&OLPDWHFKDQJHSRVHVKLJKHUULVNVWRKXPDQKHDOWKIRUWKHIROORZLQJUHDVRQV)LUVW
FKDQJHVLQWKHK\GURORJLFDOF\FOHZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHULVNVRIH[SDQVLRQRIZDWHUERUQH
GLVHDVHV VXFK DV GLDUUKHD DQG WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI YHFWRUERUQH GLVHDVHV VXFK DV

PDODULDDQGGHQJXHGXHWRWKHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHZDWHUEDVHGKDELWDWVRIWKHYHFWRUV
6HFRQG D ZDUPHU ZRUOG ZLOO H[SDQG WKH YHFWRUKDELWDEOH DUHDV  )RU H[DPSOH
PDODULDDQGGHQJXHWUDQVPLWWLQJPRVTXLWRHVZLOOEHDEOHWROLYHLQKLJKHUDOWLWXGHV
DVZHOOKDYLQJPRUHZDWHU\DUHDVIRUEUHHGLQJ7KLUGWKHLQFXEDWLRQSHULRGVRIWKH
YHFWRUWUDQVPLWWDEOHGLVHDVHVDUHVKRUWHURUPD\LQVWLJDWHPXWDWLRQRIWKHYLUXVHV
'LUHFW LPSDFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH RQ KXPDQ KHDOWK FDQ PDQLIHVW LQ WKH IRUP RI
FOLPDWLF VWUHVV KHDW GLVRUGHUV DOWHUDWLRQ RI LPPXQH UHVSRQVH DQG FDWDUDFWV
)XUWKHUPRUH WKH LQGLUHFW LPSDFWV FRPSULVH RI LQFUHDVH LQ PRVTXLWRERUQH DQG
VQDLOERUQH GLVHDVHV DV D UHVXOW RI FKDQJHV LQ DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV LQFUHDVH LQ
RYHUFURZGLQJ DQG XQGHU QXWULWLRQ OHDGLQJ WR KLJKHU IUHTXHQF\ RI WXEHUFXORVLV
PHDVOHV DQG SODJXH LQFUHDVH LQ YHFWRUERUQH GLVHDVHV FDXVHG E\ RYHUZKHOPHG
VDQLWDWLRQ V\VWHPV DQG KLJKHU LQFLGHQFH RI ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV DV D UHVXOW RI
LQFUHDVHGIUHTXHQF\DQGPDJQLWXGHRIIORRGLQJDQGGURXJKWV6WDWH0LQLVWU\IRUWKH
(QYLURQPHQW
7KHVDPH UHSRUWSUHGLFWHG DVLJQLILFDQWULVHLQPDODULDGHQJXHIHYHUDQGGLDUUKHD
FDVHV ZLWKLQ WKH QH[W  \HDUV XVLQJ  DV WKH EDVHOLQH \HDU 7KHUH ZLOO EH DQ
LQFUHDVHRIFDVHVRIPDODULDSHUSHRSOHIURPFDVHVLQWR
FDVHVSHUSHRSOHLQ'HQJXHIHYHUFDVHVZLOOULVHWRFDVHVSHU
SHRSOHLQIURPRQO\FDVHVSHUSHRSOHLQ$QGGLDUUKHDFDVHVZLOO
WULSOHWRFDVHVLQIURPFDVHVSHUSHRSOHLQ6WDWH0LQLVWU\IRU
WKH(QYLURQPHQW
7KH²(O1LQRHYHQWFDQRQFHDJDLQEHDJRRGSUR[\RIWKHLPSDFWVRID
ZDUPLQJZRUOGRQSXEOLFKHDOWK  ,Q 0DODULDKDGVSUHDGWR KLJK HOHYDWLRQV
DQGIRUWKHILUVWWLPHLWZDVGHWHFWHGDVKLJKDVPLQWKHKLJKODQGVRI,ULDQ-D\D
(SVWHLQHWDO,QLWDSSHDUHGWKDWPRUHYLUXOHQWVWUDLQRIWKHSRWHQWLDOO\
GHDGO\GHQJXHYLUXVPD\KDYHHPHUJHG'HQJXHIHYHUKDVEHHQVSUHDGLQJIDVWHU
DQG NLOOLQJ PRUH YLFWLPV WKDQ LQ SDVW \HDUV  7KHUH KDV EHHQ  VSHFXODWLRQ DV WR
ZKHWKHUWKHKLJKQXPEHU RI SDWLHQWV DQGGHDWKWROOLQ ZDVFDXVHGE\ DQHZ
VWUDLQRIWKHYLUXV


0RVTXLWREUHHGLQJLVDQRWKHUIDFWRUUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHKLJKHU
QXPEHURIGHQJXHFDVHV7KLVIDFWRUGHSHQGVRQWHPSHUDWXUHDQGUDLQIDOO&KDQJHV



1HYHUWKHOHVV:+2FODLPHGWKDWQHZVWUDLQRIYLUXVZDVXQOLNHO\
Page 48 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

WHUPVRIPLWLJDWLRQRSWLRQVLQDVWKHFDUERQVWRFNLQFUHDVHVE\0W&VHH
HWDO
,QGRQHVLD   
%DVHOLQH
  
0LWLJDWLRQ
  
,QFUHPHQW
  

)LJXUH0LWLJDWLRQPRGHOVFHQDULRLQ,QGRQHVLD²6DWKD\HHWDO

(
1(5*<6(&725(0,66,216
(PLVVLRQVIURPWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDUHPDLQO\IURPIRVVLOIXHOEXUQLQJ7KHGDWDXVHG
DUHPRVWO\IURP 7KH,QIRUPDWLRQ&HQWHU RQ(QHUJ\RI WKH0LQLVWU\RI (QHUJ\DQG
0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHVWKH:RUOG5HVRXUFH,QVWLWXWH:5,WKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QHUJ\
$JHQF\ ,($ DQG &DUERQ 'LR[LGH ,QIRUPDWLRQ $QDO\VLV &HQWHU &',$&  7KHUH
PD\EHVRPHGLIIHUHQFHVGXHWRWKHGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVRIGDWD$OWKRXJKWKH
7DEOH DQG)LJXUH0LWLJDWLRQPRGHOVFHQDULRLQ,QGRQHVLD²6DWKD\H

7DEOH&DUERQ6WRFNLQPLWLJDWLRQDQGEDVHOLQHVFHQDULRVLQ0W&6RXUFH

6DWKD\HHWDO
Page 18 Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies
Kateren 6B

DEUXSWFKDQJHVLQZDWHUVXSSOLHVGXHWRVRLOHURVLRQDQGQHZSUHFLSLWDWLRQSDWWHUQV
LELG
'URXJKWHYHQWVLQDQGZHUHFRQVLGHUHGWKHZRUVWGXULQJWKH
WK
FHQWXU\
7KRVH GURXJKWV DIIHFWHG  KD WR  KD RI SDGG\ ILHOGV LQ ,QGRQHVLD
OHDGLQJWRDVLJQLILFDQWGHFUHDVHRIQDWLRQDOULFHSURGXFWLRQ6RFLDOYXOQHUDELOLW\DVD
UHVXOWRIWKHGURXJKWHYHQWVZLOOEHPRUHVHYHUHLIWKHUHFXUUHQFHRI(162HYHQWLV
SUHGLFWHGWREHPRUHIUHTXHQWWKDWLVRQFHLQWR\HDUV0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH

1DWXUDOO\ SURGXFWLYLW\ ZLOO GHFUHDVH LQ WKH GU\ VHDVRQ DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI
GHFUHDVHGUDLQIDOODQGVRLOKXPLGLW\7KLVZLOODIIHFWFURSILHOGVWKDWUHO\VROHO\RQ
UDLQIDOO RUQDWXUDOLUULJDWLRQ*OREDO FKDQJH LQ FOLPDWH LVEHOLHYHGWREH RQH RI WKH
IDFWRUV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR LQFUHDVHG IUHTXHQF\ DQG LQWHQVLW\ RI GURXJKWV 7KH WDEOH
EHORZLOOXVWUDWHVWKHGHFUHDVHLQSURGXFWLYLW\DVDUHVXOWRISURORQJHGGURXJKWVLQ
VDQGV

<HDU
'HFUHDVHLQ
3URGXFWLYLW\
+D
+DUYHVW
)DLOXUH
+D
V  
  

  
  
7RWDO  
V  
  
  
  
7RWDO  
7KHRFFXUUHQFHRI(O1LQRLQLVLQVWUXFWLYHDVDQH[DPSOHRIKRZKRWWHUFOLPDWH
DQGGLVUXSWHGK\GURORJLFDOF\FOHFDQDIIHFWWKHDJULFXOWXUHVHFWRULQ,QGRQHVLD7KH
 ²  (O 1LQR HYHQW ZDV WKH ZRUVW UHSRUWHG LQ  \HDUV PDNLQJ  WKH
KRWWHVW\HDULQWKHFHQWXU\ ,QWKDW SHULRG6RXWKHUQ 6XPDWUDDQG.DOLPDQWDQ RQ
WKH LVODQG RI %RUQHR -DYD DQG HDVWHUQ SDUWV RI WKH FRXQWU\ KDYH VXIIHUHG
XQVHDVRQDEO\ GU\ FRQGLWLRQV IRU VHYHUDO PRQWKV  7KH ILUVW PRQVRRQ UDLQV WKDW
QRUPDOO\ EHJLQ LQ 6HSWHPEHU FDPH PXFK ODWHU LQ 1RYHPEHU  2IILFLDO HVWLPDWHV
FXUUHQWO\LQGLFDWHWKDWGURXJKWFRXOGDIIHFWVRPHKHFWDUHVRIULFH,PSRUWDQW
LQFRPHJHQHUDWLQJQRQIRRGFURSVVXFKDVFRIIHHFRFRDDQGUXEEHUZHUHDIIHFWHGDV
ZHOO5HLOO\
7DEOH,PSDFWVRIGURXJKWVRQDJULFXOWXUHSURGXFWLYLW\6XWDUGL
Page 47Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies


7KLVSDSHULVEDVHGRQDQDVVLJQPHQWIURP'),'DQGWKH:RUOG%DQNLQ
FRQVXOWDWLRQZLWKWKH 6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI (QYLURQPHQW LQ,QGRQHVLDWR FRPSLOHGDWD
DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW UHIOHFWV WKH PRVW XSGDWHG VWDWH RI NQRZOHGJH RI &OLPDWH
&KDQJHLQ,QGRQHVLD
7KHGRFXPHQWLVDV\QWKHVLVRIH[LVWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQGRHVQRWSUHVHQWQHZGDWDDQG
LV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ EDVHG RQ RIILFLDO *RYHUQPHQW RI ,QGRQHVLD VWDWLVWLFV ,WGRHVQRW
VHUYHDVDQRIILFLDOSXEOLFDWLRQIURPWKH6WDWH0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWQRUGRHVLW
UHSUHVHQWWKHYLHZVRI'),'RUWKH:RUOG%DQN5DWKHULWLVDSURIHVVLRQDOGHVN

UHYLHZRIH[LVWLQJSXEOLVKHGLQIRUPDWLRQDQGLQFOXGLQJWZRVSHFLDOLVWFRQVXOWDWLRQ
HYHQWV FRPPLVVLRQHG IURP WKH FRQVXOWDQW373HODQJL (QHUJL $EDGL &LWUD (QYLUR
3($&(
7KH WHDP PHPEHUV IRU WKH SDSHU DUH $JXV 3 6DUL HG 5L]ND (O\]D 6DUL 5LD 1
%XWDUEXWDU0DUWKD0DXOLG\DDQG:LVQX5XVPDQWRUR
)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQSOHDVHFRQWDFWLQIR#SHDFHFRLG
RUYLVLWZZZSHDFHFRLG
(ii)
Kateren 1B

LQWHUQDWLRQDOGDWDDUHEDVHGRQSXEOLVKHGQDWLRQDOVWDWLVWLFDQG816WDWLVWLFDO2IILFH
WKHUHPD\EHRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQVXSSOHPHQWHGE\RWKHUVRXUFHVDQGHVWLPDWHV,Q
WKHFDVHRI&',$&WKHVHVXSSOHPHQWVKDYHEHHQVXEMHFWHGWRSURIHVVLRQDOVFUXWLQ\
DQGGHEDWHDQGDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKRWKHULQGHSHQGHQWVRXUFHV7KHUHDUHDORWRI
JUDSKLFVDQGFKDUWVWKDWDUHGHYHORSHGXVLQJWKH&OLPDWH$QDO\VLV,QGLFDWRU7RROV
&$,79HUVLRQGHYHORSHGE\WKH:RUOG5HVRXUFH,QVWLWXWH


7KHUHPD\EHVRPHTXHVWLRQVDQGDUJXPHQWVUHJDUGLQJWKHYDOLGLW\RIVRPHRIILFLDO
GDWD LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH IURP WKH ,QIRUPDWLRQ &HQWHU RQ (QHUJ\ RI WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI
(QHUJ\DQG0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV%XWVLQFHWKH\DUHRIILFLDOWKHVWXG\ZRXOGVWLOOUHO\
RQ WKHVH GDWD )RU LQWHUQDWLRQDO GDWD ZH XVHGWKRVH IURP &',$& ,($ DQG :5,
EDVHGRQ,($VWDWLVWLFV7KH\DUHZLGHO\UHIHUUHGWRE\WKH81)&&&
&XUUHQW6WDWXV
7KHDQQXDOHPLVVLRQVLQWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRULQ,QGRQHVLDUHDFKHG0W&2HLQ
DFFRUGLQJWRWKH0LQLVWU\RI(QHUJ\DQG0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV3XVDW,QIRUPDVL(QHUJL
  &DUERQ 'LR[LGH ,QIRUPDWLRQ $QDO\VLV &HQWHU &',$& LQ 2DN 5LGJH
7HQQHVVHHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD86SXWWKHILJXUHLQWKHVDPH\HDUDW
PLOOLRQWRQVRIFDUERQRU0W&2H0DUODQGHWDO,QWKH
WRWDOHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHVHFWRUZHUH0W&2H6HH7DEOHEHORZ7KLV





)RUPHWKRGRORJ\RQ&$,7GDWDSOHDVHYLVLWKWWSFDLWZULRUJFDLWSKS"SDJH QRWHV

3OHDVHQRWHWKDW)LJXUHXVHV333DGMXVWHG*'3WRFDOFXODWHHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLW\QRW*'3WKXVWKHGLIIHUHQW
YDOXHIURP7DEOH

1R ,WHP
,QWHUQDWLRQDO
(QHUJ\$JHQF\
3XVDW,QIRUPDVL
(QHUJL
 *'3ELOOLRQ86  
 7RWDO3RSXODWLRQPLOOLRQ  
 7RWDO&2(PLVVLRQ0W&2H  
 7RWDO&2(PLVVLRQE\)XHO7\SH
0W&2H



 &RDO  
 2LO  
 *DV  
 7RWDO&2(PLVVLRQEDVHGRQ6HFWRUDO
(PLVVLRQ0W&2H

 (OHFWULFLW\*HQHUDWLRQ  
 ,QGXVWU\  

 +RXVHKROGDQG&RPPHUFLDO  
 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ  
 &2(PLVVLRQ3HU&DSLWDW&2FDS  
 &2(PLVVLRQ,QWHQVLW\W&2PLOOLRQ
*'3
 

7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRI(PLVVLRQ'DWDLQIURP,($DQGWKH3,(


ILJXUHLVSHUFHQWKLJKHUWKDQWKHHPLVVLRQLQWHQVLW\LQVHH7DEOH  

Page 19Indonesia and Climate Change: Current Status and Policies

×