KHoa học hệ thống bảo vệ rừng

1. Nh÷ng ®Ò xuÊt vµ xu thÕ ph¸t triÓn
1.1.Nh÷ng ®Ò xuÊt
 !"
#$%&'()*+,-./-0"1"234"5
*+,*-*6*78"9 :;/9 &<()*+,
=>*&?@(/-026234"6*!A*-*6**+,
"A"9:;/9 &B()"19 =>*&?@C(/-
0"1"2362DE234"6*!A*-*6*#*+,
A"9:;;6&$():;F/-0"1"23
623DE2G2+2""1HI;7:;
,34"6*!A:;*6**+,A"9:;/A"9 ,:J
;"1=>*0-K6I*6#*+,9 36
I"99 3LMD;FN*+
,G9 F*6#D6;=>*O4"FNPDH
5=>*67>*+,+=>*6*-*6**+,3Q/-0
29:8IAHD2A63DEGC
D6,FN*+,=>*PR#;9S:2*;3
"DH#H"*#*+,9 T UVEF:DH>
;;WX!2"9 7Y"9:;Z E*6#/ 
;"G;"9:;M EEE6..G 
;A9:;[\!"/!"762U9 HNH3\!
7*"/!G]VELX7Y7Z9 3\!;>
A"9:;"H"HVE;/Y[0:;*6**+,;
UVEFL6D6
KII/G^ "D6*!D_*+,=>*"H"H5
G]G`E6!Z:;*6*89 aALXM:EYZ
9 66Z[5 8;*+,DHI ;M
*!GZ[52;DbSa;MX"_"9/
FN*+,S02D*+,9 .P1A 34
"78;6D6*! A:;*6**+,3UVEF =
DE=;63 =DE;6UVEF =ML;

6/D"**-6*+,*G6Y*-6Q DHc+*
E:;*6*DHcEE"EY">>cWI P*
G*6,:;63G]G`:F =N:EZ:;6W8
 /S62DE62F/G697#">!>Z
;6 #6#">!#*!!6MLZ; 
7OE5 9 DH ,5" ;*+,"*-*6* -8
93DH5>"*-6"1;6+*6DE
7Z;73VEF =:MLZ;739 0:">
H6MGZ;7
/"ELM#Z;6#/M"6*-6
"169 C7 .*6*!6 /"1*-*6*HI;
7#"19 6D23,"4F8%khoa häc hÖ thèng
b¶o vÖ rõng.
1.2.Xu thÕ ph¸t triÓn cña khoa häc hÖ thèng b¶o vÖ rõng hiÖn ®¹i
d2:;,7"-0ZAHD2F/;86H9 ,3
:;9 3He37,932733DX>fL,g*DfhiD2
:;,X=>*
K=/P+V7L#66>F
 gFN*+,RHI 6RDX*+,6
:Y*S"::8A- #-
;63*M*/e8F*6#D2H;3:;",
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*6#}]%npE:"8ZD2F/B*6;"83:9  
DH5/7"/;6"4F:/8F/+57"/; 
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pe62#H;>DH"/!2" E:E
OL'|j<KG:7%md2AX=Y*6I6nH"1"
8 9 66Z6D2XA62"1"
 "*62,D EX*9ZO0EDf'jO6
2xŠ]]&'|jh(2"1" " E:EK"12G;;
> O E R>M!D2D2G
K,D E *6#"4F-"H!;"F#
/MF:E=DH"/!Z8F/3D68*-*6*62=#
‡D: E:EHI;V"ZK%mo;*M
*;!*HXG66:E7"DH#F-3e#>R

*6SnKIIHAY#F;>"G9 FH
IYX# EHIY">3HIA6G6Y""I:E
=DH*HXG6AWX!66976
ZF*693II*6"M8`*6Y;Z7"P*6
YO-D6e7;*6YVS*6YoDL
":•:8773"1D6"eAD;69*6
 DH+ EY7E6Y; DHW;*9X
 DEPDH~"FI67:Y+**9X66
IN:EZ7WX!:;DH`9 o"&p]"]]("2•&:D 
:]]"]z]]" ("H8"9 "d:;*6Y3MDH`EZ 
9 "/8.#23D9 8<ii9 ‹:;f";87">
2&"/!(3D9 >6<ii9 ‹32EYf";9 
:;5'iŒ[.G^ ;>:E34":;"DH*06=Y
(5)Lý luËn kÕt cÊu rêi r¹c (Dissipative structure theory)
K EDED2y5?@]AGL'|h|dE"
;706G69:J3e;7""12362 "23 
G235.F:E=:E7Z;7EY78H
:EL"#,DEDHF:EDEFo;70G
#9:J*DH,=L">8:/8#I
DEF=Y83F;F #6,DHFEFKFDH 
F"5FS*GE**9:76 E7& /\3*9\3(o;70";7
FH"*-7o;7G69:J";706I,6
9:JE6.9:J"ED•69:J3AD;= 
L">8:/3E;706.9:JGEF*6Z;7
V"0A69:J3I UDHDEF=Y/F9 
:J"Q7ZFgFL;7":E7";8Y7:I93
";76G6_R
O:E9:JDH9:J"D6;2D2F/
D2G
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62"9:J"56A3XM9:J7;">
6 E7;73;7H[>"6>2"
DH9:JyMN:E*6#Z;7R*DH,
9:JDH9:J[;7DER;> OM
A9:JDH9:J"*6I,-E*M*3,*E
KDbO2G*6,"F-8G]F9:J";>"*4
kEEDf's"* /"19:J3:8EDf'|Y"MA
;25v;;"F2H"*=L">*8:/AG
89:JDH >34";7H"*N6]A8QA3DH
F3-E9:J3Db EE6"J7G
E:E=,DHFEF3,-E*M*3,*E39 
V EE68Y"MZ;"F2CE.EDf<i*6
y"/M9m*9:Jn"1"AmDEn E 7
8"2I AG89:JZ;"F2R
#I IIE6:6D#p{
k##v;M! E#*9X;>G3P#*6;X
60A73D/I63=YDEZkDH5*e>*8 /"1
D2G+"LM0D2F/
C!XZ;6"::A~"FEEAL6
ALFgF #69V R.AD;Y
d/IX60\""8060\*D_/ED
;"1Z8LIMDEFZ;G9 F;6
OE;79:JH"*\UDHG;DEF[8
\UVEDHF/DE"AX60\ EDE
5vm5;70\8G;DEF8n"X8

K;7G6 E7U;M;*Q38#*6#]8
FgFDEX73-Y36:.P36/G 
3DE>*6XG9 F;6gFDEU0F6DEG
/.DE*e>*8m;M;*Qn"1"DE

W8D2P"G\"1*9XA7;9:JDH9
:J
K6I"Y\D2F/3..M>;7"
,9:JrDH9:Jr9:J8 "*6#DH,I
*-*6*9:J 9:J=>*@-*6*9:J=>*"*-*6*
/M*#;7!/,7"/;;"V=#
6 E73 E7 E7;78H#G]G`6XG6=>*7r
>/M3"PEFAXM=YKFNM
*-*6* EYX2*-*6*"D236!"878F
*6#D2F/D2G3F;AE3D7E;7F 
/
7e.*v6E;"F2eD6;]* "/X
:#YF DHF}* "8;7~"3MLD`[ >
"]* :`DE;7 S3ML;3M
F#e">M#:#Y3">M>Y4":J7">DHYX:Y
":•g7">DHYX":#>Z:YZH> A3X!
+3E7F:6"I">ZX:Y:JiOE
+:]z37D6">X:YZM"8kA6/"">
H]* DHDH*:#Y6DHFZ;73
6FZ;7D;7>M6DHF:Y
:Y/,/">M"83]* •>"3]* U"8
(6) Lý luËn hiÖp ®ång (Synergetics)
K E;*Q"/M/-06H2"17D/3"1"-:E3DE
3"1";73"1"M"1":E>oD]AL'|jjO"
H28X=>*K,"1oD]:S./M-E*6GDX
H/M6I:E=;7&D2F/26"1
D6"-D63;72N:E--D62"-:E(
|
#/V3#,3#"•†*6;FG;DEF7DH*0;
"F9:J DHRDH*F6G69:J:GC7"6!

;*Q"/86;7;7K6!9 7;-~;
7";7,DHFEFK6I #6,
DHFEFG;673F>*66737e 
VE577*7;7EE;*QF6I-:E
Z;76!;*QF;>F=M;7&DH0Z
8FE#X3F;6IF=Y(/F #:E
,DHF9:J DH9:JEFADH"/8XZ
6;7Y*7:0 /"1Q3 /"1 >2" /"1;*
QK,/M Y"M;"F2/M;7F
EDHF3"1"DE/M;706G69:J
AD/Y,DHFEF3"1";*QE"/:8/M
 "N:E,DHFEF,FEDHF"./7
FDHFF
K E;*QDH56YX146!Z6!;*Q
Z6;7;7IDEF+HY"> "N
:EZ;7,DHFEFK E;*Qe"8*-I
*9'*#H;76!-~6;7KH"F
27D/26>"1":EG9 FHI62*9Z
N:E,DHFEFLMFZ:E= E;*Q
:E7:E7
6;>/M E;*Q*=:E3149S3M!3/
.9 A"4F/MA;7;7F/;7G9 
FP19Z68/E8K] /"1;*Q'DEFZ;
70IAD;Y"DEZ6!;*Q6;7
O6;7;*QE8#";7 #6,
DHF88FEML7ckX"F*9H>*6
Z6;7;73F*9H>*6DH*II
H"*Z6;7:Y*7:0 "F/3 "X"F">!
7DH333L">HZ;78AA:F
;H*`*;7>ML&!X(P2 " "Y"

M<Z;723R+2"q /Sf";">!OEAD;
*`*q /SEf";I*-M*9H>*6;7U
DH=YY*,*-M"*6#*-M/E3E
DAD;*`*EM3*-M*9H>*6U=YR
DDX.: "/DH 3DXo.DX5.DXDH"/5
"/UDH,KF/;7F*9H>*6:/-7
=YA-:> "F/TX!"$ & 3 =
3 e"8* L(~ ML/3ML
 /6ZP[P' ML=>*ZP
WIe"PF*96"D6k"I$ L•
"Z E3+' 5L"•AN/6OEA2$
 IU9 F"*XL">TX"eeM#:;9
#36":;:JA^ K"eMLe"eA;7
D6"86"e;7•y0I6e^ •#N3:-N:S
Q6/Y":#;">!. ZDH33L"r
>[+e"M!=#:;R"D#:#;">!. Z65
//
OL /S /MH6:;,145F;H 
e2K;;6,"19 "EM!
 /S #F;6;OL /S "A*G]G`8/
786D2
2.1.5.Ph¬ng ph¸p luËn cña Khoa häc hÖ thèng
d2;7"HD2X=>*"1"-:AH2
+AD_*-*6**9X;7 !s"%
(1)Ph©n tÝch hÖ thèng (System analysis)
'i
kY4A*9X;73E V7A6D6
K7:6DC_X%n@9X;7"*-*6*/M;
7:J62d6;A*9X;7"G9 FHI62FHI
*9X62]DE!;7:.n

•3Ou"Y4%n@9X;7DH*"D_62O"6">
H6/M]43DŽY*A*ED_D6;623
" *-*6*;73D2#6A*M*/* E
6"F2>*"1F:6>Z E6
1QK>*:;">e*9X;7A7
7*-MG6Y
K,Y4/# vB#%&'(@9X;7"6" >ZH6
/M&<(@M!D_7&B(@9X;7#* E6
"F2 E67
WA:3*9X;7"56I"*HI78;7;& ;
7(3"6IHI6!#-"LM;!!/FYZ
/M8E*IIFE;7H3;76
*.Q/M Z~*.&:Q633=>**9X7
";(D666HI6HI&:r]"(376HIH
I
K, *9X;7G*6,#;78A*=>*3Y">
7"/;"V36!"V3D7E"V6:*:;78
H#> E67k#=:Z"X5#3X=>*37
6KX5#"" 5#"7>/MQF7;F
3DE>*3D7E"VZ5#:*# "
Z;7KX=>*:Q<1%"=6:*& E7(=
>*!X["67>A*"/;86*.3
DE3ML*-M"/;3"Y\*6#PK76"6;
7A57;5#6*."ML!/Z,:
**!e!/=##F;76=#
@9X;7>M!8H;*H3>M!
H3"93H:;H3Q;7G3;7
A>Fv;K,*Dfji9/M6"4F
">!>*"1 /Q•3"F833Q•3"1Q,3
66D7EHNH3A5F:69738663LP38V

3D7E9:;3">!9XKF:693g]&'|j<3'|jh(
oD&'|jh(AG"*HI:J6 X#F:69:Hu:]&'|jh( 
e#F:6;"6tu]{&'||'(e#F:69HHFk78Y
:;9 p]‡&'|j$(e#F:6:;7"6H3Šge#F:6Y:;5S
@9X;7-"U>F"8-
(2)VËn trï häc (Operational research,OR)
We2"HD2D_ E E6"1O">!*-*6**9
X3X;Y">63;7A97*M*HA*-6
/MQI*-67#*A E6"LM/"
H2M!•u4"n/M6;*n34Z"
!3aWe2>% E &*] ( E E6
&]] ( EGE*&]] ( EQD&] ] (*9X
&]{D"(K  EX 6 E >
M!/M E6FXF:6*+,9:;3 EGE*
#F!;/MF*+,\!D*XK E E6"-0*r
-*6*Z E#5"1=>*9 &?@C(
(3)HÖ thèng mµu x¸m (Grey systems theory)
K E;7G6>)gp]•"AG8L'|s<O"-0Z E
D7E;73*6H:EDH#e*-*6* A7
#G9 FHIK6I:EZ"6IH/
LM9">H>66/^3" XZ;7&DE
373=("5/;7"%;7:EX:/
2";7S3;7DH:E2";7]3+;7:E*.
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(8)HÖ thèng phÇn mÒm (Soft systems methodology)
@-*6*;7*.A>D2x@y]"AL'|js†
F*-*6**9X;7LM!/DED6Z!/
*-*6*;7*.M;7*.Ao;7*.M!/

Y3HG9 FHI32!/7[+;7*.ADH!
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RAJYS//k#*9X#6>
 .M/#;7K,#;6,:Q*
KD;6*">!3:;*6#;3E; 

IML;6:E3:0IG\"16:;M;8
AD;HU:E7;"EA7;;
786*.3*.8*.3;78H:/t*6,
#6=DED;;689 Z3P#
DŽY3#//3L"FFD7EDH#. Z3X!
D9 ,9 H;*:Y9:;*6Y3X+:Y3D7
623P:Y;DS*!>g"9D6"G;DH E>
AI3>"DDL-WI \!762DH>*"1VEA
HNH3LX7Y7Z9:;3/Y:Y;37">9
"L"/3MD•:Y E*OX!Z@D]&'|$|(A;•9 3:
:6Z:u]&'|h<(A"VM#IZ;e7,9
WI 8 /S62"19 HI;7*:
q /S-:%
• O /S6.C7ML;6>F*6#:A
*: /S*6#67;6">!A". 
3*6.WX!\!A6*9:627,9:;
#VE""MZ3," =DE30EML
Z;6
• O /S3;C7"ML;6E6*">
!. Z6!>*663A5;;6F
/WX!,;82AE"4YX6#">!r
>P2L">#">!I+L">7"
:;6,;3A*6#:A
• O /SA8E6C7;6>!XD7E
9 *H7;-DS83F8
F38F""F2"2F/EEQ
>F9:J7e>FeE66"K.#H
e#M! /"1:GX6":SQrQ3D1r9 
Z#ED7EK6"F#">!FE67"6
9 D6ME6LF

• O /SX AA7Y9:;:EYZ"O /SX7Y
"D":YDH5X7Y+XAD6v;
e#ME/;"9 WX!D"9 :Y"9L"6;L
#E0E~H*Z9,E!
X/;9O /SX:EYZ""e=#DH5:#
;FD6HD6Z69 D6+e9 F*9
:76*.9 FD6"83DHYX9 
D6WX!>*]*]:E=Q9 :6] /F:E=U
0Ef";f";EZ9
• O /SF=M3FA5D7E:Ao;6";70=
L">8He";7F=M06DH9:J36
*DE;6A5F3F]=M3F I=Y3/I
;7MLFA5~6!"6!~F
L06=A**!eML5#3:DbML5#H
XADH*`*dE"19 *G]G`DE=Z;
63A6:;*6*A6!=>*">! /"1FA5Z;
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:;,:QAA.MOE*9];*!D_]8
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X]A2$*8353 ;GA2U;
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XDE3;X6;XG
k7>!//MHI;7";7XQ#
]*•HI;7:;,73HI;7:;,
53 ;#F7>/MD6HI;7:;,
7F*69H0DF39 LpF/
M#HI;7D#Y3HI;7FXF:63HI;
76 *7+#F*9/HI;76!:; 
,3HI/M:;,

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4.ứng dụng phân tích hệ thống
trong hệ sinh thái vật gây hại rừng
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4.1. Đặc điểm cơ bản của phân tích hệ thống
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4.3.Tổ thành và kết cấu hệ sinh thái sinh vật gây hại rừng

4.3.1. Tổ thành hệ sinh thái vật gây hại cây rừng
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H×nh 4.1. S¬ ®å tæ thµnh hÖ sinh th¸i vËt g©y h¹i c©y rõng
g-Q/# ;69 9 ,6*.* 
=K6*.:QF387"37">
D63:#;AMLG3/!*9~MLZ
P`"8K97DX>DH5:QA97:E7
DX>+:E]e] /KXDbZDX>0E
XDbZ3F:E=DX0EXXMZ

DH,*6:E=kQ6!-~697DX>0
"8E">/" 97DX>"97=>*#G]G`62
"He2
.*J;6,3F*6Y"H"H"97
9 KZ E"H6D_"9;*k:;""9 3L 
6:;*6*:;,DH,*6#:E=3EF!DH6
PU9 09SOE97DX>"Z Er
0EML6;7Z9 I6:;*6*"9;*:;,
U9 :E=DE;7K,;MX"_"96!ZP
+"8-A897DX>>*0>3D"
>078;6F/3/*."8#DFX>
4.3.2.KÕt cÊu hÖ sinh th¸i vËt g©y h¹i c©y rõng
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a/ M« h×nh quan hÖ c¹nh tranh gi÷a c¸c loµi:
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